GSK plc (GSK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thanks, everybody. Thanks for joining us this morning and making it to the third company day, fourth day overall of the conference here at Bank of America. So it's my pleasure to introduce the first session. We've got Emma Walmsley, CEO of GlaxoSmithKline. Also sitting in the front row here, also, Iain, the CFO as well. I think probably the best thing is, Emma, if you want to make some opening remarks, and then we'll dive straight into Q&A. As a reminder, if you've got a question, please raise your hand and just wait for the microphone, but I've got plenty otherwise. So over to you, Emma.

No doubt. Well, thank you very much for having me, and a big thank you to those of you knowing that you can access all of this online. It's pretty good to see you and it's Friday, so thanks for coming in this morning. Just a few opening remarks. Obviously, GSK has been through an enormous change journey over the last 4, 5 years. And change will never stop, but we're really pleased with the momentum and the delivery of this transformation, obviously, successfully separating and building ourselves as a pure biopharma-focused company. We've seen a significant transformation in the productivity of R&D, in the competitiveness of our commercial performance. It's been great when you think that the very purpose of the company is bringing together science and technology and talent to get ahead of disease. Our purpose is to innovate, and we're really seeing this pipeline coming through and are extremely confident about delivering now on this next chapter of competitive profitable growth that we committed to in terms of the 5-year horizon. And the first year of that is very strongly on track. You'll have seen our first half results with double-digit growth, even excluding the pandemic contribution, and operating profits up 27%, I think, excluding pandemic, and an upgraded guidance for the year as well. So feeling very good about operating performance. That's really across the whole portfolio in Vaccines and Specialty, roaring back of Shingrix. But also across our Specialty Meds as well, consistently strong growth. We have successfully completed, obviously important in the current economic weather, successfully completed our major cost reduction program and locking in that GBP 1 billion of benefits there. So really pleased about that. And that's really quite a reset of both our geographic footprint, our manufacturing footprint, and that can also help with cash flow and working capital. Really pleased to continue to lead the way on the ESG agenda, whether that be leading the way on the Dow Jones Sustainability Index or leading commitments on diversity, equity and inclusion, environmental, our commitment included in our outlooks to GBP 1 billion of investment in global health and infectious and tropical diseases. And these societal issues remain absolutely foundation to who our company is. And we really do believe our core, not only to the performance of the business and risk management, but also to the long-term sustainability of what we're doing. Very excited about the new pipeline that's coming through. Just a couple of very good Phase IIIs just reading out, if you think about that, produce that. We'll have some more regs and news on that coming up shortly. And obviously, I know you're going to ask me lots of questions, which I'm not going to answer, on RSV, but more detail on that data coming through, too. It's been great to complement that in-house pipeline with some exciting business development, too, whether that be Affinivax, brand-new. And I went to visit them just recently and just so excited about that. New technology platform in vaccines, really a sector that GSK is almost uniquely placed in terms of our portfolio, and we've invested in this new technology with the pipeline on pneumococcal. But also, we've got momelotinib with the Sierra acquisition. Halozyme will help us keep moving through to innovate and continue to lead the way in HIV. So lots of exciting things coming through. Tremendous momentum. Felt very good going into the summer about all of that. But it would be wrong of me not to make a brief reference to some of the turbulence in the market since then over the summer and, obviously, the attention that the Zantac litigation has got, not just for us, but for quite a few. So I'd like to make a couple of comments on that. First of all, to be absolutely clear and categoric, GSK's #1 priority has always been, is and always will be patient safety. So let's just be absolutely clear about that. Second point is nothing new actually happened, whenever it was, in the 1st or 2nd week of August. This is not a new issue. This is something we've been extremely transparent about since, I think, 2019 when it emerged. And obviously, when we were going through all of our work separation, we have continued to do that. But as the cases are emerging and plans through for next year, it got a lot of new attention even if nothing new had happened. I want to be also extremely clear that, obviously, since 2019, there were significant reviews by the FDA, the EMA. I think 11 published peer reviews, our own work on this as well. And the science is extremely clear and extremely consistent. There is absolutely no evidence, credible evidence, of any causal link between ranitidine therapy and cancer. So you can be extremely sure that we will be defending our case very vigorously on that. Obviously, these kind of things take some time to work through. So we have the experts working on that. Obviously, we are not in a position at this early stage to make any comments or estimates about whatever it's going to mean, but we will keep communicating that as the process works through transparently, obviously. And I want to be extremely clear that it makes absolutely no change whatsoever to our priorities, our plans for investment, our investment in growth. As you know, one of the benefits of the successful separation of our consumer business has been the increase in capacity. We also have a new dividend -- competitive dividend policy. We're also generating cash from successful profitable growth in operations. And all of that is about investing in the future growth of GSK, investing in the pipeline, investing in the successful execution of that pipeline. So I wanted to mention that at the front, not least because I don't plan to say anything more on that on the topic for the rest of the session today, but we will keep you updated. What I'm focused on is the exciting fundamentals of our company, the incredible change that we've driven and we plan to continue to drive and really looking forward to the momentum. We think we're set up very successfully to deliver on these 5-year outlooks, but also very importantly, tremendous momentum to deliver that growth through the end of the decade, which, of course, is always going to be something you'll continue to want to know more about. So that will be an overall intro from me.

Okay. Thanks. As I say, you have to put your hand up and wait for a mic if you got questions.

I might just kick it off on the sort of bigger picture, on your revenue guidance. So it's about a year ago now -- more than a year ago, you pointed to GBP 33 billion in revenue by 2031. It's probably the longest range guidance, I think, we've ever seen from a company to give people...

It's not guidance. So we'll come back to that, yes.

Or ambition, yes. So -- but the consensus numbers are still below that. So where do you still see the biggest disconnect between what the Street is seeing and the ambition that you put out there a year ago?

Well, yes, I mean you -- first of all, I do want to just be extremely clear on the guidance point versus the ambition and why we made that comment. It was really related to the last couple of lines I said in my intro. If you step back, all the work that we've been doing is about to start putting GSK into a new chapter of ambitious profitable growth. And for the last 4.5, 5 years, we've been investing in that growth with a big increase in investment in R&D and a lot of reset for the structure strategy, capital structure of the company to be able to fuel this growth. And we have committed and we are all extremely committed to delivering this 5-year outlook, which will be very competitive performance. And whatever the weather at the moment, be it one of specific events or global economics, we are going to deliver that. And we will do it while setting ourselves up for long-term sustainable growth beyond. The reason we wanted to put a 10-year marker out there, which was a snapshot in time, if you remember, of the pipeline at the state of maturity it was a year ago, risk-adjusted with no additional input from any BD, some of which we've -- I mean since then, we've done Affinivax in one of the largest sectors of the market, the pneumococcal market is what it is, GBP 7 billion, I think. And we think we have a differentiation in technology there and we'll be headed into Phase III shortly. So there was no additional BD and there was none of the early-stage maturing because, by definition in our sector, we are reinventing ourselves every decade. And the reason we put that there is because, obviously, one of the big questions for us, even though we have less exposure than most companies, is what's going to happen when dolutegravir comes off patent? And we wanted to be clear that at that moment, if you just took a risk-adjusted view of what we had before all the stuff that was going to happen, we were still looking at growth through the decade. Now obviously, our job is to keep updating every quarter with the excitement of our new R&D leadership and all the progress we're going to make. And we've made tremendous progress in the last 4 years and, in fact, even since last year. So that will keep evolving. And you're right, the biggest gap at the moment is this forecast 10 years out. Maybe you'll hit such a moment. I don't know a lot of analysts who spend a lot of time on the 10-year outlooks for our sector. But I think the key thing is being able to bring more and more visibility to that pipeline as it comes through and consistent performance quarter after quarter, showing that when it's in hand for us, we know how to execute competitively, and that's what we're doing. I mean you just look at the operating performance of the company, and that's what we'll keep doing. So that's where the gap is, and we're going to show the progress we've made to date. We'll just keep accelerating as we go forward.

You touched there on like the uptick in investments. So we've seen R&D grow quite appreciably over the last couple of years. It seems like that's flattening off at the moment. But I guess, to fill that gap and get to GBP 33 billion, is this sort of...

More than.

Is this a step? Or do we -- should we expect R&D growth to reaccelerate again as you start to pull more things through into Phase III where you're getting to more of a steady state where R&D just grows in line with sales going forward?

Well, first of all, we were underspent in R&D, and we did a big leap forward in that spend over the last few years. I've never been a huge fan of the sort of it has to be a fixed percentage because, by definition, anyone can spend money. The question is -- right question is whether you're spending billions every year, are you spending it smartly and if you're spending it productively. There's definitely going to be -- we were clear on this on our 5-year outlooks that we expect R&D to increase but at a much slower rate. And that -- I expect that -- I mean you can see that even in our quarterly results, that can tend to be a little bit bumpy simply because you want -- it depends when the maturing Phase IIIs are coming through. It depends as business development comes through. What we're very focused on is spending with a lot more discipline than we have had historically. And frankly, over time, we define R&D as -- our strategy overall is combining science, technology and talent to get ahead of disease. The technology options, whether that's platform technologies, you can think about mRNA or MAPS technologies or adjuvant technologies or oligos or whatever, the investment in platform technologies and the investment in data technology, genetics, AI, machine learning, et cetera, should allow our sector, and we are also seeking specific competitive advantage here for GSK, to unlock more productivity in the way we spend our money. So our #1 priority in terms of capital allocation is the investment in the pipeline. We will follow the data to decide how much we keep investing. There's no change to our commitments. It's going to always be quarterly bumpy according to when Phase III comes through. But the interest of shareholders is that we invest in it because it's the future growth as well as the patient impact, which is the reason we exist.

Okay. Just in terms of top line recovery, we see the pandemic is pretty bumpy for vaccines and particularly for Shingrix. If we look at scripts in the U.S. at the moment, they sort of seem like they're still flat quarter-on-quarter. So first half is kind of nice and easy because you had easy comps, but then also a bit tougher. So what do you think you need to see to get quarter-on-quarter growth to start to come back into Shingrix in the U.S.?

Well, this is a magnificent vaccine, let's start with that. We are going to have a record year. We doubled in the first half; comparators, obviously, helping. But I think one of the key things to recognize is that Shingrix is not a seasonal vaccine. That matters because the world is working up to adult vaccination being, frankly, highly cost effective both socially and financially. And it's fantastic, by the way, and very good for us, whether it's for Shingrix or us with RSV or what comes on pneumococcal. But you're seeing that the regulation in the U.S. around the IRA, very much going to favor because it's removing the co-pay out-of-pocket payment for vaccines. That's very good for us and our portfolio. So -- and retailers now love vaccination. It drives traffic into their stores, and they're competing constantly against the digital world. So you're seeing, it's not English, but a de-seasonalization of Shingrix, which is important. And we're actually on track for a record year with this highly effective vaccine. You've got -- and Nick will correct me if I get the numbers wrong, but of over 50s, 120 million in the U.S., we've vaccinated with one vaccine 33 million of them. You've got about 50% of our business in the 50s to 65s; others, in the older cohort. We've seen high levels of response to the investment in more consumer marketing, which is definitely the way the vaccines market is going. And we see a fantastic horizon of growth for this business and very confident in our commitment to doubling the sales out to '24. One of the key aspects of that is still huge room for growth. We have to invest in that growth in the U.S., but there's also the geographic expansion where I think, last year, we were at 17% of international business, so outside the U.S. Now it's more like 30%. By '26, it will be more like 40%. And China has obviously been stopped, but they'll be -- I mean not completely stopped, but actually a quite good progress they offer in a very limited environment. So we'll see when that comes through a bit later, completely unconstrained in supply. And the beautiful thing about the Vaccines business is you're not sat on the same kind of patent cliff movement. So this will be a sustainably very scaled business for us through the decade.

Okay. And then I think so there's a focus on the mix between U.S., ex U.S. So obviously, all the growth in the U.S. I think if you look at consensus numbers, I've also kind of got a lot of growth there. If you're -- in terms of the penetration in the U.S., the 33 million individuals, is the 120 million the sort of the target market? Because I remember, I think...

No. No, we're not going to get to 100%. No.

So I think you said 67 million were...

Did I? Oh.

67 million were people who had -- or seniors who had other vaccinations, but that was pre-COVID. So has COVID actually upped that number in the investment market?

Yes, maybe -- it's a really important point, I mean, if you think about flu rates. But you're seeing governments get more enthusiastic about vaccines. As I said, just when you look at the regulation that's coming through, prevention is always cheaper than hospitalization. So there will -- we also know, and we've seen it, thus use it, there are people who will never put a vaccine in themselves. And the co-pay element is an important aspect to this in terms of outlays. But there can be no debate, the world has recognized, including individual families and companies, the value of keeping people healthy rather than treating them when they're sick.

Okay. And...

And yet, there are 1 million cases of shingles, I think, in the U.S. every single year, and 1 in 3 of us get it. And 98% of people have had chickenpox, so that means you're vulnerable to getting it.

Okay. So...

You're not 50 yet, so you don't need it. But you can -- I would strongly advise it, as appropriate.

So if we think about penetration rates then, so you're -- if you're maybe 30% penetrated at the moment, just you get an acceleration, how comfortable are you that the -- as the U.S. sort of matures, the rest of world kicks in? So if you think about what's the split in a vaccine normally between U.S., ex U.S., can the ex U.S. part get bigger than the U.S. part?

Well, we've said by -- and again, these are estimates at this stage. Our estimate is that we'll be at about 40% of our business, roughly, ex U.S. by '26. But also, I think it's going to be interesting to watch how general consumer behavior continues to evolve as the investment in vaccination, both infrastructure and science, continues to increase. And we are planning to be right at the heart of that. I mean just thinking about our portfolio and the pipeline we've got coming through in terms of all these different platform technologies and the kind of conversations we have with governments on this, it's going to be a meaningful contributor to our portfolio through the decade, no question. And of course, we're going to add to it with RSV, with pneumococcal as we develop our mRNA platform as well. And it's more stable in terms of this patent cliff question as well as being profitable for payers, but also profitable for innovators.

I think, Graham, as well, probably worth noting, one significant contributor to growth this year has been Germany. But for geographic expansion, we were in 17 countries at the end of last year. I think it's 22 or 23 now. And the expectation that we'll be in 34 by the end of '24, and that represents 90% of the world's accessible vaccines market.

Yes, great point.

So the change in mix between U.S., which is less than 25% penetrated at this point in time, with a view that somewhere between 65%, 70% penetration is probably achievable in terms, to Emma's point, who will actually want or be prepared to become vaccinated in the U.S. But the geographic expansion of this becomes more important as we move through towards the middle and the second half of the decade.

Okay. And actually, Emma, China is, I think, one of the other markets that you've talked a lot about as being an opportunity. Obviously, things are difficult there at the moment.

Yes, it's not back.

But do you -- have you changed your longer-term aspirations for Shingrix in China?

No, I think they're definitely not back a bit, though, just because of the infrastructure that's been in place while they've still been prioritizing COVID, both how society is run, but also vaccination there. We were given an early approval. I think we need to keep an eye on how domestic innovation plays out we've seen to date, but it's -- we've just got to watch for that. But we're not worried in any way about our opportunity to grow. There's definitely an opportunity within China, but on a broader basis, we can still deliver on that.

Got it. And actually that's sort of -- you've mentioned Affinivax a couple of times. So maybe just talk us through sort of the rationale of the deal. How you see 3772 competing in the -- what it adds in the pneumococcal market? And then maybe what else can you bring through from the MAPS platform? What does that offer you?

Well, first of all, it's 100% in line with our stated strategy to pursue bolt-on BD, some fantastic talent, a very differentiating technology platform. And 4 assets in easy visibility and more to come and completely synergistic with our commercial and manufacturing, and that's really important in our ability to bring that together with a very, very large-scale opportunity in a part of the world where, based out of Cambridge, Boston, we have a lot of access to talent, too. So this is a pneumococcal vaccine technology, huge market, 7 billion or so. In fact, it's the second-biggest market after COVID. And if you look at GSK's Vaccines portfolio, it was the most obvious place where you'd say, let's go and have a look at that. Big players, so the world doesn't need more me-toos. The world needs differentiated assets. This technology -- because pneumococcal disease is varied and broad and includes all sorts of things from sepsis to pneumonia to a whole bunch of other things, but very significant health impact cases and death rates actually around this. So we have a technology now with Affinivax, which is called the MAPS technology, which should be able to, in theory, broaden the coverage and, therefore, the protection because of the high binding of the way the science works. That will be borne out. We're headed into a Phase III soon on a 24 because it's always about where you can go to in terms of those bonuses and protections. There'll be adult and pediatric. And likewise, further down the line, although it's still preclinical, there's a possibility of the 30, which is another world to go to. And our R&D vaccine leadership are very thoughtful about where else we may be able to deploy this in terms of infectious diseases. So it's important for us. We're really looking forward to going into Phase III shortly on the 24-valent, and we'll keep you updated. I'm sure it will be one we'll spend time.

Okay. And in terms of the sort of leveraging distribution capabilities, manufacturing, it's actually just -- does this allow you to just leverage those? Or do you have to establish new manufacturing around MAPS, for example?

Yes. We've got most of what we need, so in the right places. So it's one -- it's a key part of the benefit, this one.

So in short, it should give you high incremental return because you're plugging it into an existing base.

Correct. Correct. And don't forget, in respiratory, whether it's in Vaccines or in our broader Respiratory portfolio, we understand this. We understand it.

Yes. Okay. I might just keep the vaccines actually and move on to RSV. So we've obviously got your press release, and there's a lot of debate around what exceptional means...

I like that. I like that we have a debate with GSK.

I think most people have maybe come up with their own views on that anyway by now, but we've seen the Pfizer data. So having seen the Pfizer data, headline data, they said 85% on a more severe endpoint than I think you're using, so this 3-symptom endpoint; 67% using 2-symptom, which we think is probably more like your endpoint. If you look at the data that they've put out there so far, does that make you more or less confident in your opportunity for RSV?

Well, first of all, I'm going to say, we are extremely confident in RSV, full stop, and I'm not going to make any comments on other people's data. We are really looking forward to sharing in more detail in a publication or upcoming conferences why we feel so confident about this. It's an enormous opportunity, scale that need significant market. And we're actually absolutely on track with the regulators and headed towards that June ACIP. We have exceptional protection across a whole broad range. We have a unique technology, and we're looking forward to demonstrating how strong the performance of this asset is going to be. And frankly, in all of my experience in commercial across industries and this industry, more than one player is usually good for the size of the market, and what will then matter is the differentiation on efficacy.

Okay. Yes, so you touched on that there. So the -- in your press release, you talked about the over 70s population, so consistent efficacy across over 70s. And in RSV A and B, the last being important because you didn't expressly target RSV B. But on the over 70s, there was nothing in the Pfizer release to that extent. And that's certainly where Shingrix got different...

Well, that's exactly the point, yes.

So just maybe compare and contrast like the potential for a differentiated opportunity in that over 70s population.

Well, yes, I mean, first of all -- so it's the key question, first of all, because that's where the burden of disease is and comorbidities. And as we all know, the defenses, once you reach a certain age, starts to come down. So the key question is going to be, how is protection sustained over time, particularly in the more vulnerable of the over 70s? And we know from our experience with Shingrix and with the unique AS01 adjuvant that, in fact, we're headed now towards 10 years of protection against shingles there. I'm not suggesting that that's what we're going to be committing to on RSV at this stage. But it is important. It's important because we think that's a meaningful impact on all of the T cell side of things as well for the sustained protection. And that could be even within a season for what time of the season that you're able to be vaccinated and protected as multiple options during the flu season come together. So look, we'll see. Data will show, but we're very confident that we can deliver exceptional protection. And then over time, we will see further what that may mean for the over 70s as well in terms of duration of protection.

And timing is important as well. It sort of looks like Pfizer jammed the different endpoints in to get a result to be able to file and get to the same ACIP meeting in June next year as you guys see you wouldn't have the timing advantage. So that means that in terms of getting a duration benefit, you're going to need to see the second season to get the duration advantage, which means that you won't have that, I guess, in place at the time you were initially launching and marketing against Pfizer.

Well, I'm not going to get into all the details of our head-to-head plans of where we are. Obviously, duration comes through over time. But I think it will be interesting to see our data and what we'll be able to show and answer those questions when we've got more on the table.

Got it. Okay. If I think about the pipeline, so you talked about obviously the MAPS technology. You've also got the CureVac. So just perhaps, again, help us. So how do you fit the CureVac, MAPS technology, traditional technologies together, mainly thinking vaccines R&D and future opportunities?

Yes. I mean this is a really cool play. Again, when we talk about technology in GSK, we think about platform technology, and then we think about AI data and digital technology and platform technology in vaccines. We've got adjuvants. We've got more traditional technologies. We've got MAPS platform. Who knows how all of these things we can consider combining. But we also -- the case has been proven about where mRNA can play with enormous agility in areas where there's no current vaccine or a low-efficacy vaccine like flu and particularly when things are changing on a year-on-year basis. So we think the biggest opportunity in mRNA is probably in the seasonal flu. We have a partnership with CureVac and have been investing in looking at through trials on both modified and non-modified basis. That will come clear on what the core platform we want to pursue. And we don't have much of a flu business. It's certainly not one that contributes financially, but we do think there's an opportunity to have a platform there. And then let's see where we will go to in terms of combination vaccines. That's still got to be proven. We have a lot of experience in combination vaccines in pediatrics and meningitis, these areas. So it's not as simple as adding one and one together, and efficacy will trump everything. You don't want 3 combos but none of which get you protected. So we're working that through and absolutely confident that we'll contribute to the mRNA platform possibilities in the years ahead.

Okay. So actually, you said you think flu is probably the biggest opportunity. I guess, Sanofi always highlight just the very high bar on the traditional vaccines with Fluzone High-Dose, a lot of outcomes data, et cetera. When you sort of think about where you're putting the capital into R&D investment in vaccines, is that really the right place to go?

Well, we have a full portfolio of vaccines to keep looking at, and you're right to keep thinking about the question. Flu efficacy now, though, is still more like 50%, 60% on an annual basis, and that is something that maybe we could contribute with. And I think the other thing to look at is not necessarily multivalency, or question to ask, multivalency between different disease states. It's how could you cover off more multivalency within flu options. And there is still -- versus the high numbers we're seeing in some other vaccines, there is still a window in flu that's worth pursuing. And the agility -- the key thing about mRNA is the agility that it can bring when you see new strains coming through because of that initial pace, which is worth it.

Okay. I'll ask about oncology. So it's -- I guess GSK sort of dabbled with oncology over the years, but never really been an oncology leader. You did the [ TESARO ] acquisition. You got sort of BLENREP coming through, but with trying to sort of shift around to work out how you get rid of the ocular tox. And then you did the Sierra Oncology acquisition. So just thinking strategically, where does that acquisition fit in? And does it portend to there being sort of a lot more investment in oncology BDL going forward?

Well, it's a great question. I mean I think the first thing to say, and you saw this when we laid out our strategy last year, the New GSK, a focused biopharma company, is putting its investment into Vaccines and Specialty Medicines. Within Specialty Medicines and actually thinking more and more about the scientific synergies across those 2 areas in prevention and treatment, which we're starting to see in a few ways and few diseases, we look at 4 core therapy areas. Infectious diseases is massive for us. Think about we were coming through also on hep B, in our antibiotics portfolio, and we have deep know-how here. HIV, by the way, an infectious disease, but called out specifically because it's a big business for us, we are categorically leading the way in innovation. We touched on dolutegravir earlier. I am really excited about what we're going to be sharing in '24 in terms of our plan forward to innovate within HIV to go to that beyond the end of this decade. And then you have oncology and then you have immunology. This is a small business for us, but the unmet need is massive. The competition is also massive, and you have to be very surgical about where you invest. If you think about the contribution that's going to come through, I mean, you can see the size of the sales relative to the whole business, this is going to be more of a contributor in the later half of the decade. We still -- we're excited to see what's going to come through on a quite lot more data on BLENREP, as you said. The momelotinib Sierra acquisition is a complete synergy with BLENREP. There's a real unmet need. And so we -- and it's going to be accretive from '24 in sales, I mean, assuming all the final approvals go through, contributing to sales in '23. So I would say it's obviously an area where patient need is enormous, the science is advancing. We're very thoughtful, and you'll see that from Tony, too, about where we invest and using the insight that's coming through on our genetics and genomics work to bring a lot of precision to the planning of trials. And we'll see what happens with all of the next-generation I-O with the TIGIT journey, we're watching very carefully, and what combos can come through, but that will be later in the decade. So I don't think you should overstate. I'd like a better word than dabbling. We're very thoughtful about how we...

That was historical.

Yes. I'm going to continue to correct your vocabulary. But we all know people are fighting cancer, and there's a lot more progress to make. It's going to be interesting to see how the economics of that market change, though, over the coming years.

And then an area you haven't dabbled in, you've just been a leader in this HIV, obviously. So 2 questions there. One is just near term on longer-acting, just give us an update on where you see -- well, a, what's happening right now on the launches and then where you see them going? And then perhaps we could just touch on the sort of longer-term, long-acting portfolio. And just when are the critical moments that we should be thinking about for getting understanding of what the combinations are and when you could be in the market with those next-generation products.

Yes. So very briefly, we've led the way always in HIV innovation with dolutegravir, with two-drug regimens, with long-acting. Every time we come up with innovation, there's lots of challenge about it, and then we prove that it works and then other people follow. So the two-drug regimens, I think Dovato is annualizing at GBP 1 billion now. Fantastic performance, strong growth, better economically, better not to take so many drugs, strong performance, seeing that doing very well. Really pleased with the launch of Cab, which is a long-acting injectable. When you think that -- what that changes in terms of the patient experience and enthusiasm from patients on this, I think you've got -- and this is really interesting, I think we've got about 2/3 of patients who are interested in long-acting. 98% of those who've been in the trials really saying they prefer it just for the confidentiality, the reminder, the convenience, all of these things. So -- but it is a paradigm shift in treatment. So we're seeing that going through, but you saw it kind of -- very strong progress in Q2, and we're confident to the demand out there also from HCPs. And so we've said that we think long-acting will be about 1/3 of our business by 2026 when we're coming through. That also includes PrEP, which is a very small business at the moment. But again, you've got the government and the U.S. government being extremely committed to reducing in by 2025, very significantly, the infection rates. The infection rates are still there, and this was a -- and that's where the trials were stopped early because of such extreme efficacy versus the current standard of care. So that's important because Cab is not until the next decade in terms of you start worrying about patents. And then beyond that, we invested in this partnership with Halozyme. We have a whole portfolio of different options to get into longer-acting, longer-acting self-admin, more convenient longer-acting because it would be slightly misrepresentative to say this was an easy injection to take at the moment. But -- and we will know -- and that's bNAbs, capsid inhibitors, a variety of different combos. In 2024, we will be public and ready and committed to explaining what Phase III, with which combo we're going to go forward with. And it's really important because if one of the big questions is what's happening post dolutegravir, well, just look at what we've done consistently in innovation within HIV and look what's coming. And then beyond that, look at the broader portfolio. Look at vaccines and that range of really scale innovation and see how we're coming through in specialty as well. And then look at what happens in the market between [ Luc ], Endeavor and our execution, time and again, I'm feeling really confident.

So -- and on that 2024, is that an option between...

A few different things.

I was going to say, does that include the option of just a 3-monthly self-admin at home with like Cab 400 or a Halozyme or both?

No, they're a whole different group. I'm looking at...

They're all -- basically, what I'm saying is they're all in the mix. So when you're definitely going down the Halozyme, 6-month, the target, is that...

I think it's -- Halozyme is likely to be part of it, but I don't want to preempt where we're going to land on that, and more will come through soon.

And that would all be with cabotegravir, not with the next-generation integrase inhibitor that's going to come later again, is that right?

I need to check exactly on that. Yes, I think so. I think so.

Okay. So that's the next wave after that...

Yes, you'll get that from -- you talk to our HIV specialist. I don't want to reveal too much. It's a highly competitive situation that [ we're in ].

Got it. Okay. And then just in the last minute, so big R&D leadership change. So Hal leaving and Tony Wood starting. Just perhaps just help us understand what you think Tony brings to the party and if there'll be any change and it'll be big, subtle and what sort of things might we see that are different from Tony?

Well, first of all, Hal is -- hasn't left. He's still on the Board. I speak to him every week. And he's very supportive of our ongoing work and acceleration. Tony is a very exciting leader for GSK's R&D and has -- one of the reasons that we wanted to appoint him at the Board is because he is a momentum accelerator. I think it's really important when you joined to partner with Hal and defined the strategy we've laid out. He has full freedom to make his own choices and capital allocation for this. But he was appointed because he's partnered in the definition of the strategy, also because he is an expert in technology. He's been very involved in our BD work, and that is definitely something you will see increasing, and now we've built further capacity to complement the work that we're doing internally. His priorities are really simple, it's pipeline, pipeline and pipeline. Execute brilliantly on the late stage, accelerate the early stage, adds-on for the BD in line with our strategy and with due financial discipline and make technology in both the platform sense and the data sense, an accelerator of our performance. So we keep bringing more forward and underpin that with the right bench strength of talent and culture that GSK's reputation as an innovator and a place for innovators, partners as well as inside the company, continues to strengthen. I know we're also very keen, whether it's with Tony and Nick or the broader R&D team, to bring more visibility to those projects and keep upping our game in our communication with you and the market community on that pipeline because it's the reason we exist and it's the thing that matters most.

Great. Well, on that, I think we're just out of time. So thanks very much to Emma, today, and to Iain. Enjoy the rest of the day with us, and thank you for your time today. Thanks.

All right. Good to see you.