Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited (GPPL) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Q3 FY '26 earnings call of Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited. My name is Manish Agnihotri. We have Girish Aggarwal, Managing Director; and Santosh Breed, CFO. We'll have opening remarks from Girish, and then we'll take it forward for the Q&A. Over to you, Girish.

Thank you, Manish. The company delivered a strong financial performance this quarter as well. The EBIT was higher by 18% quarter-on-quarter. This was driven largely by an increase in RoRo volumes by about 39% [indiscernible]. Let me start again. The company delivered a strong financial performance this quarter. Again, EBIT was higher by 18% quarter-on-quarter. This was driven by a 39% increase in RoRo volumes, which were highest ever in the quarter, 62,000-plus cars. Also, dry bulk volume continued its strong growth and was 25% higher. Liquids and Containers were broadly flattish. Containers, however, has shown a growth of approximately 7 quarters vis-a-vis the previous quarter. I will now talk about the 9-month result for this year. YTD, overall YTD results are also strong with EBIT higher by 18% over previous year driven by 40% growth in RoRo volumes, 45% growth in dry bulk and 13% growth in the liquid business. Our EBITDA margins for the 9-month period is 58%, which is higher by 100 basis points over the previous year. This quarter, as per the new labor laws, we took a gratuity provision of approximately INR 4.8 crores, which sits in the extraordinary items. I will pause here, and we'll open for questions.

Thank you, Girish. [Operator Instructions] Deepak Maurya, please go ahead.

My first question is on the outlook for container volumes. When do you expect to see growth again for this segment? We've seen several quarters of year-on-year decline so far. And so what will be the turnaround -- when will be the turnaround likely? And what will be the key drivers for that? And in the same context, we've seen some India, Middle East services to the Mediterranean returning via the Red Sea. So do you see any positive or negative impact from this development? So this is the first question on the container outlook. Do you want me to go through the rest of the questions? Or should we take it one by one?

Let me answer this question and then if it's okay with you, Deepak. So essentially, a, again, there are some green shoots this quarter where we grew 7% over previous quarter. But again, I will wait for some more data points to say that this is a bit more structural in nature. However, we are clearly seeing some positives. A, as you rightly pointed out, shipping lines have started, albeit slowly, the transit through the Suez Canal, which augurs well because that releases capacity in the system, which was one of the reasons why some of the tonnages were pulled out of the services that were calling us and had negatively impacted us. So that is positive. Last quarter numbers, along with previous quarter numbers were also impacted by higher tariffs in the U.S. on especially the textile and garment sector. I think that is now getting behind us. So I'm hopeful that some of those volumes will come -- MECL, which is a flagship service of Maersk for the East Coast and starts passing through the Suez creates a much better product for our customers. So I do expect that product to increase as we move forward. So there are some structural positives that have happened. In the market, there is 1 quarter data point to suggest that there is a little bit of growth. But I think it will be great if the right thing would be to just wait for this quarter as well in terms of performance on the container sector to see how things materialize.

Just a clarification. The 7% quarter-on-quarter growth which you're saying, right, it is also possible that this is because of seasonality that the third quarter or the December quarter...

No, this is not seasonality. This is certainly certain areas and specifically on the Maersk services that we have grown our volumes. Overall, year-on-year, I mean, Jan to December, if I were to look at that time frame, Maersk grew its volumes by 15%, and this is through some structural initiatives that we have done with Maersk over the last 2 quarters, which have started to show some results. But let's wait for one more quarter, but I am seeing positive, let's say, momentum, if you will, on the container growth. Also the -- some of the good news is around the Red Sea opening up, Suez opening up. should definitely benefit us.

Okay. So Jan to December, there is 15%, right, 15%...

Just for Maersk, I'm saying, okay?

This is for Maersk. Okay. Okay. And then these are -- okay, fine. That makes sense. It's very clear. My next question is on the operating expenses development during the quarter, right? This outpaced revenue growth both year-on-year and also on the quarter-on-quarter basis. Historically, you've guided that whenever fertilizer volumes increase, that tends to suppress the margins because it's more operating expense intensive. But this quarter, we saw that sequentially year-on-year, of course, there was a significant jump, 25% overall dry bulk volumes. But when we see sequentially, the fertilizer volumes did decline, but we did not see any benefit in the OpEx. So what exactly is happening there? Could you help us understand what is the true run rate over there?

Santosh?

Yes. So you are basically comparing it with the immediate previous quarter, right?

Either way, whether you look at it -- when you look at the difference between EBITDA to revenue, right, the overall OpEx, when you look at it year-on-year also, it has outpaced the revenue growth. And when you look at it quarter-on-quarter also, it has like outpaced.

Yes. So basically, if I just compare it first with the previous quarter, right, then of course, there's some catch-up which has been done on certain maintenance activities, which has been done. These are more of preventive nature. Also some additional spend in our CSR activities, which were conducted during the quarter. So those are the key drivers. Otherwise, if I really look at my operating expenses in comparison with the immediate previous quarter, in line with the bulk volume, they have been lower actually. So roughly lower as compared to the previous quarter. And if you compare it with the same quarter last year, the main, of course, one is the operating expenses because of the volumes. And second is the increments which happens on the employee benefits cost.

Okay. Okay. That makes sense. And my next question is the final question which I have is about the realizations for the quarter, if you could provide some guidance on that. And also, I saw a notification on your website that there has been some rate hikes since the 1st of Jan. So if you could help us understand how much of this will pass through in terms of actual realized or average realizations? And will it be across cargoes? Or is it specifically for containers?

Yes. So first, I'll take the question for the realization. The realizations for the current quarter has been maintained. So no major change as compared to the previous quarter. So for container, it is in the range of INR 9,500 to INR 10,500 per TEU. For bulk [indiscernible] to INR 650 per metric ton. And for liquid, it is in the range of INR 550 to INR 600 per metric ton. So no major change as such in the realization. On the [ CSR ], we have taken a tariff increase. Of course, it's mainly on container, but also on our marine services, which is applicable across all the business streams. So this increase in general has been taken in the range of around 5%, will get passed on to the customer based on our arrangement with them. So typically, what we've seen on the top line should have an impact of around 3% to 4% is what our expectation.

Okay. Okay. That is helpful. And then any updates or any developments on the concession renewal? That will be my last question.

Yes. So we continue to engage with the Gujarat Maritime Board. I think things are moving in the right direction. Again, there's no specific update beyond what we said last time. But the engagement continues, the positive engagement continues, no red flags.

Mr. Bhavesh Patel. Please go ahead with your questions.

Congratulations on great set of numbers. So the question around the concession was just asked and you've answered. And it was, in fact, I suppose because we have that plans for almost INR 17,000 crore investment, and I suppose that is contingent on the extension, right? I mean that's the understanding, right?

The investment of INR 17,000 crores is contingent on concession extension, of course.

Sure. Okay. Understood. And again, we'll wait for the positive announcement whenever that happens, but we are almost in 2026, and it's ending in 2028 or so. So anyway, we'll see on that. My question now is on the ONGC contract for the offshore supply base, and that's a significant win. So I just want your help in terms of quantifying the expected revenue that we have over the, let's say, a year in terms of time line? And then are you in talks with any other upstream energy player in terms of similar -- in terms of utilizing the liquid as well as specialized cargo facilities that we have?

No, we will not be able to talk about ongoing commercial discussions with any other customers. So sorry about that. Also in terms of revenue, et cetera, we are not giving any guidance for a single customer. We do not intend to give any guidance on specific customer revenue stream.

Sure. Fine. I appreciate that. And again, linked with that, I mean, what's the progress in terms of our liquid jetty construction? And is the same time line in terms of December 2027, we are targeting or any?

No, no, December 2026.

Sorry, December 2026.

Yes, on track for December 2026.

And last question, again, repeating, but GPPL, we have historically maintained almost 100% dividend payout ratio. Assuming that everything goes on and we continue to have the plans for spending that INR 17,000 crore investment plan. As shareholders, do we expect any shift in terms of capital allocation? Or you don't?

No, it's not right for me to comment. It is for the Board to recommend to the AGM and the AGM to approve. So it's really not my place to comment, honestly.

Mr Manan Poladia. Please go ahead with your questions.

Congratulations on a good set. I have a couple of questions for you. First, on the liquid side, the Kandla Gorakhpur Pipeline, I believe it was delayed earlier. Just curious on whether there's an update on that and what time it should go live. Do you want me to go one by one or...

So let me answer this question, and then we can do one by one, please. So we expect anywhere between March and June this year for the KGP to kind of connect to us.

Right, sir. Perfect. Sir, second question, I have a slightly bookkeeping question here on the liquid side again. What should be the depreciation number you should expect for the full year '27 once it's commissioned?

Depreciation of the jetty?

Yes, jetty of the CapEx that we are putting in.

I'm really sorry. I don't have that number with me.

Okay. Understood. No problem, sir. Just a couple more. On container volumes, I know you said you want to wait for a bit. But just curious how we're thinking about that in the context of all the deals that have happened plus the freight markets normalizing a little bit. If you could give me some color on that, that would be great.

No. I mean it's the same, right, what I talked about. I mean, with some of the positive news on the free trade agreements, bilateral agreements, it augurs well, especially on the garment and textile sector, which kind of started to see a decline clearly. And the Red Sea Suez opening up, capacity coming back, we do believe that things will definitely improve on the container side. But again, I really want to wait for Jan, Feb, March quarter to really then say things are moving structurally forward.

Neelotpal. Please go ahead with your questions.

I have 2 questions. First is, can you provide some outlook on fertilizer volumes, how they have been trending for this quarter? And how do you see them panning out for, say, FY '27?

So on fertilizer, of course, this quarter also was a really good quarter for us because if you look at -- in terms of volume, then we had done around 629,000 metric tons in the current quarter on the fertilizer side. So two back-to-back good quarters. However, of course, this also means that there's some stocking which has been done now. So we should see some dip. And we also expect close to the months again it picks up.

So roughly for the last -- I mean, if I just look at the 3-month period, the fertilizer overall volumes will be close to about 1.6 million, 1.7 million tonnes. Usually Jan, Feb, March is a lean quarter for fertilizers, and then it starts to pick up as monsoon starts. So April, May, June, July, August, September is usually the biggest quarters as we move forward. So I mean, we will still maintain about 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes of fertilizer. But again, let me give the overall outlook for the full financial year when we talk next time with the full financial year results.

And my second question was when do you expect your RoRo capacity expansion to come up? And how do you see volumes panning out next year?

Okay. I'm sorry, which capacity expansion are you talking?

The capacity expansion on RoRo volumes...

So on the RoRo side, essentially, we are now building a new staging area, which expands our capacity. We expect -- it's a 60,000 square meter expansion. Within March, we believe we should be closing about 30,000 and the rest of the 30,000 between May and June. That should give us additional capacity from an expansion perspective. But nevertheless, this capacity is not impeding on any volumes today. We are able to find space in the -- within the port premises as and when needed to ensure that we are able to handle all cargoes or all car volumes even today. So I mean, that's just for our future benefit. But in general, at least at this point in time, we have enough and more capacity on handling the cars.

Sir, what is our capacity now? And what will it be after expansion in June?

Yes. So I mean, on the car side, essentially, the calculation is a little bit different, right? So it depends on how many dwell days the car stands, et cetera, et cetera. But we believe we are in a position to handle anywhere between 250,000 to 300,000 cars today, and we will go up to about 400,000 to 450,000 cars in June.

Got it, sir. And do we have any exposure to South Africa? They have been considering implementing a duty on exports of cars out of India?

Yes, that you will have to ask the exporters. I will not be able to comment.

Aditya, you can ahead.

A few questions from my side. A, what is the exposure on the container side to U.S. and Europe? And should one be thinking through the recent change in course in both these geographies as being positive for the company?

No, essentially, I think it's difficult to say, right? So -- but it's anywhere in the region of 15% to 25% in general, I would argue.

To assume it is for the combined exposure to Europe and U.S. that you're seeing this number or...

Yes, clear.

Okay. Understood. On the container pricing front, which is a 5% increase, how much is kind of linked up to cost increases that the company foresees? And how much is potentially a catch-up in pricing given the meaningful difference, let's say, versus [ Mundra ] that already exists?

No, no. So this is not how we look at our pricing. So our pricing is more dependent on market and nothing else. So it's very difficult for us to attribute increases to cost, et cetera, et cetera. So I mean that's not how we will look at it. It's a 5% increase as Santosh alluded, a 3% to 4% usually flows through.

Understood. So 3% to 4% on container revenues is what you're saying and then lesser so on overall revenues. Is that the way to think?

No, no, 3% to 4% on overall revenue -- the increase has been taken on container marine and recent tariff, but even also on the other businesses, we do take revenue increases on the contracts.

Understood. The third question that I had was on container volumes. As and if I see the revenue trajectory from Maersk, it's been kind of flattish to declining from a revenue perspective. And then you're talking about this 15% growth that you've seen. How much more can be covered up in terms of growth if we really get the equation on volumes in Maersk, right? It still seems far, far distance away because a lot of -- the last 5 years have broadly kind of gone nowhere from a revenue perspective in that account.

So Aditya, just to really understand your question, you are referring to the volume growth coming from Maersk Line and what more we can expect is what your question is?

Yes. As in our sense is that when we see the annual report, the RPT transaction suggests that the Maersk revenues have kind of gone over last 5 years -- last 5, 6 years. They are stuck in a certain zone. So I just wanted to get a sense of that while 15% already has happened for 9-month period, is there a lot more growth that can happen in that account to cover up for fast losses of opportunities?

I'm unsure. I mean I've already overall given you a color of how the market will grow. But the idea of giving at a customer level what will happen over the next 5 years is something that we don't intend to do. The context of giving the number of 15% was just to attribute that there is some positive momentum structurally, there are certain things that we are trying to put in place. But at a customer level, we are not -- we will not be in a position to kind of give a future plans in terms of what growth is possible, what growth is not possible. We will look at the container business overall, and we kind of will continue to give you a guidance of how we see the container overall volume developing.

Understood. Maybe a slightly related question. As in, if you were to be doing the CapEx and kind of deepen on the draft -- can the [ likeability ] of the port and thus container volumes see a meaningful uptick from here on? Obviously, hinging on the CapEx, but just to get a sense of the quantum of benefit that can come once away.

No, no. These are far-fetched at least at this stage. Obviously, if we are in a position to do a CapEx, the idea is to grow the business and make it profitable, right? So otherwise, it doesn't make sense to do the CapEx. So I mean, I think these are all far-fetched questions at least at this point in time. So we will not like to kind of answer the question. But in general, any CapEx that we do has to result in profitable growth for the company.

Last question from my side on the expenses that have kind of caught up in this quarter. As we saw some uptick in expenses in the last year same time in the third and fourth quarter. Should one assume that on an annual basis, these kind of expenses will be recurring in nature? And how to think through margins in that context incrementally? And that will be my final question.

So Aditya, actually, I don't think we should assume the same just because of the last 2 times we have seen this. As I explained, the main increases has come from 2 main reasons. One is the repairs and maintenance costs and also the CSR -- of course, to a certain extent, there are some preventive maintenance which are planned in a particular quarter. So we have some increases there. So in those cases can remain. But again, CSR is something which depends on what kind of activity has been done in the quarter. So it's not right to assume that this is a run rate we should consider for every third quarter of the year.

Vipul Kumar Shah, please go ahead.

So my question is, what is our capacity for liquid and post the expansion of this liquid jetty, what will be the capacity and how the ramp-up of capacity utilization of expanded capacity will take place?

So depending on the commodities, roughly, our current capacity is around 1.6 million to 1.75 million metric tons. The new jetty is 3.2 million metric tons. So our capacity roughly expands to 5 million metric tons.

Okay. And capacity utilization of that jetty will be very gradual or you can straight away utilize it at a very high rate?

Yes. I don't know when you say high rate, very high rate, what do you mean by that? But -- and when you say very gradual, I don't know what it means. But fundamentally, the idea really is that clearly, we see more business coming our way on the liquid side. Our current jetty cannot handle beyond and we have reached the capacity. We need additional capacity to handle larger volumes, also the larger vessels that are coming in the market. So it is a critical component for our customers. I would rather say, of course, we are not expecting 3 million metric tons to fill up in the first year or 2 years, but it will be a reasonable growth trajectory. We'll talk about that once the jetty is up and running.

And second question pertains to your arrangement with ONGC. Since you are reluctant to share the details, what exactly ONGC is utilizing our infrastructure? What is the arrangement? If you can give some broad color, it will be helpful.

Yes. So from a scope perspective, we are the offshore supply base for ONGC for their installations in the Arabian Sea. They have a large base in Nhava, which has been the traditional and continues to be the largest offshore supply base for the installations in the Arabian Sea. We provide our jetties for their offshore supply vessels to come and take cargo for the -- from our port. We also provide them open space and closed warehousing space material that is stock in our port. So that's broadly the scope of activities.

Mr. Preet Pitani, please go ahead.

First question would be on the line of the cost which you have mentioned, CSR and repairs and maintenance. Can you quantify the amount for both of them?

No, no, not. I was not able to provide all these details, right? But I have given the major component, right? So I think you should find in that.

So can we say ex of that -- ex of this repairs and maintenance and one-off cost of CSR, we would have been able to achieve that 58%, 59% margin which we achieve on a regular sustainable basis?

Yes, that's right. That's right.

And second, on the line of container volume growth, are we seeing the container volume growth bottoming out for us? And can we expect future volume to grow in FY '27 and FY '28 from the current levels?

Yes. So as I answered earlier, on those slides, so there is a 7% improvement over previous quarter. However, I would like to wait for one more quarter to see whether this is structural in nature or not. So we would like to comment a little bit more in details in the next quarter results. We will also have 2 quarter data points to kind of. Clearly, there are several initiatives that we initiated with Maersk, which are sort of started to yield results. We will see final this thing in the next quarter results. Also some structural improvements in terms of the tariffs, bilateral free trade agreements, bilateral trade agreements are -- the Suez Canal opening up is in favor of us. So we do expect those things to structurally benefit us. But again, as I said, I think we should wait for more quarter results to kind of quantify benefits, et cetera.

Got it. And sir, last question on the line of liquid. We are seeing 0.4 million metric ton -- million tonnes of every quarter. And you mentioned that we have capacity of 1.6 million tonnes to 1.75 million tonnes. So is it fair to assume that we will be in the same level of 0.4 million tonnes until December '26?

Yes, broadly, we should see the 400,000 kind of a number. That's broadly based on the mix that we are able to do, maybe 420-ish kind of thing getting up to 1.7 million tonnes. So that's roughly the numbers.

Got it. And last on the line of margin difference, if you could mention what kind of margins we have in container fertilizer, liquid and RoRo?

No, no, we don't share margin split at a business level. The overall EBITDA margins are known, and that's what we would like to kind of maintain.

Got it. So can you just specify the pecking order, which has a higher margin followed by.

No, we can't specify any pecking order, please.

[indiscernible] you can go ahead in the meanwhile.

So I just had a follow-up question, more of a clarification. You mentioned that you have made some adjustments or some structural changes with Maersk on some of their services, right? If you could help us understand what kind of changes have you done, which have yielded these positive results sequentially? And secondly, is -- has all the benefit been realized already? Or do you expect a further ramp-up?

Yes. So sorry, I'm not at liberty to share what kind of changes we are doing. These are all at a customer level, customer level information, commercial information. We will not share that information. I have already said that we will wait for one more quarter results to kind of get back on more details in terms of how the container volumes are shaping up.

Okay. Okay. Fine. Totally understand. Makes sense as well. The other question I had was you mentioned that 15% to 25% is the exposure to the U.S. and Europe routes. I think in the past couple of quarters, when we spoke about the U.S. headwind, the U.S. tariff headwind, you mentioned about 10% to 12% of your EXIM containers are on the U.S.-bound routes. So I understand that the rest 12% to 15% is from the Europe route. As far as the rest of the volumes are concerned, they are mainly Middle East volumes or you have any Far East services? If you could help us understand the geographical exposure, how it stands today?

Most is Far East in nature. I mean very difficult to know. It's not -- in general, the data is -- I'm not having it handy. But in general, that's more Far East.

Preet Pitani, you still have some questions.

Just one question. Sir, what you mentioned about the realization of container, liquid and bulk. What kind of realization is from RoRo?

We normally don't give the realization for RoRo right now with the limited customers. So we don't want to share that right now.

Okay. And can we share the revenues for RoRo?

No.

[indiscernible] please go ahead with your questions.

Most of my questions are answered. I briefly got disconnected when you were mentioning the realization numbers. So any change on that front? And secondly, the grain notice effective the fourth quarter or March quarter, right, what would that hike be at a blended level for container at a portfolio level? And then are you also planning any specific or can we expect similar increases in bulk and liquid as well.

Very difficult to understand your question. There's a background noise.

So let me speak a bit louder maybe in that case. So most of the questions are answered, sir. My only question was on the realization front, I briefly got disconnected when you were answering that. So just trying to understand what the realizations for this quarter were?

Let me answer one question right now and then of course, we can on discussion. So on the realization, there is no change on a quarter-on-quarter basis. For container it is [indiscernible] INR 9,500 per TEU. For bulk, it continues to be INR 550 to INR 650 per metric ton and for liquid INR 550 to INR 600 per metric ton.

Got it, sir. And secondly, sir, the trade notice that was issued, right, effective Jan. So what would the increase at overall level, could be it around 5%, 6%.

It increases 5%, realization in between [indiscernible].

Okay. And can we expect similar hikes for bulk and liquid as well? Or should we assume flat...

We'll let you know when that happens, but marine is an overall increase for everybody...

Do you have any other follow-up questions from anyone? Mr. Jatin Parashar, please go ahead.

Mr. Parashar, we can't hear you.

Any other follow-up questions? It doesn't seem to be the case. Thank you very much for joining the call.

Thank you, everyone.