Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GKP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 30, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood day and welcome to the Gulf Keystone Petroleum Full Year Results Webcast and Conference Call. I will now hand you over to Jon Harris, CEO. Please go ahead.
Jon Harris
executiveThanks, Molly. Hello, and thank you for joining Gulf Keystone's 2021 Full Year Results Presentation. I'm joined today by Ian Weatherdon, Chief Financial Officer, who will be taking you through our financial performance. I'm also joined by Gabriel Papineau-Legris, Chief Commercial Officer; and Aaron Clark, Head of Investor Relations. We will run through the presentation slides before opening the line up for questions. Next slide. Before I start, I'd like to remind you that the presentation slides are available to view on our website. And also Slide 2 is our legal disclaimer, which I will leave you to review in your own time. Next slide, please. We are pleased to report a strong operational and financial performance, underpinned by continuous focus on safety and sustainability. Our leverage to the recovery in oil prices, combined with a 19% increase in gross production towards the upper end of our guidance range and continued cost and capital discipline has enabled us to generate record adjusted EBITDA and significant free cash flow. We were disappointed to record a lost time incident in October after working for almost 2 years without an incident. We are committed to continuous learning, and we have now been operating for over 160 days without a further LTI. We also made good progress in the year on enhancing our ESG performance as our Board approved our sustainability strategy and road map. Our mantra at Gulf Keystone is balancing investments in sustainable growth and with shareholder returns. And I'm pleased to say we continue to deliver against this strategic commitment. Regarding growth, we brought 2 new wells online in 2021, Shaikan-13 and Shaikan-14, and brought third, Shaikan-15 in early 2022. We also submitted a Draft Field Development Plan to the MNR in November, which we are today providing an interim update on. Regarding returns, we distributed $100 million of dividends in 2021 and have already paid a further $50 million of dividends since the beginning of 2022. Today, we are declaring additional dividends for 2022 of $90 million, comprising a $25 million annual ordinary dividend and a $65 million interim dividend. I'd now like to explore in more detail our sustainability performance and strategy before looking at our operational performance and plans for future growth. Next slide, please. The safety and sustainability of our business and enhancing our performance is a strategic priority for Gulf Keystone. We were pleased in the year to obtain board approval for our sustainability strategy and for our road map, which we are using to guide our delivery. Our strategy is underpinned by several priorities, which we have developed based on a materiality assessment exercise. We continue to make strides in executing our strategy in 2021. We submitted the draft FDP to the MNR, which includes a Gas Management Plan, targeting to eliminate routine flaring. This plan underpins our goal of more than halving scope 1 and scope 2 emissions intensity by 2025. And we're exploring other projects to further reduce our scope 1 and scope 2 emissions intensity beyond the 2025 target. As is the case every year, we continue to prioritize and focus on HSE improvements, building on our already strong HSE culture. We also continue to make significant social and economic contribution to Kurdistan, through local employment, investment in the local supply chain, supporting local community projects and generating $356 million for the benefit of the Kurdistan Regional Government. As ever, a commitment to robust corporate governance and compliance as well as high standards of business ethics guided our activity. We were pleased to see MSCI ESG Research increased their rating from BB to A in September, driven by our emissions targets. We also look forward to providing you with more detail on our sustainability performance in our 2021 annual report that we plan to release in May. Turning now to our production performance. Next slide. Gross average production increased 19% to 43,440 barrels of oil per day in 2021, towards the upper end of our guidance range and the third consecutive year of production growth. Since the beginning of the year, gross average production has increased further to around 45,500 barrels of oil per day. The contribution of Shaikan-13 and 14 underpinned the production increase in January to around 46,100 barrels of oil per day and a new gross daily production record of just over 50,000 barrels of oil per day. Following the early appearance of trace water quantities in Shaikan-12 in January, the well has been shut down and is responsible for the subsequent decline in production. We are planning to run diagnostics on the well to investigate options to maximize near-term production. As water ingress is common in fractured carbonate reservoirs, we have always expected to install water handling to facilitate wet oil production, and we continue to expedite our plans. Following asset stimulations, currently, Shaikan-13 production is in line with expectations, while we continue to explore options to further increase Shaikan-14 production. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, we are focused on delivering 2022 production guidance of between 44,000 to 50,000 barrels of oil per day. This reflects the anticipated production contribution from Shaikan-15 and the benefits of well intervention and workover activities. Next slide. We were pleased in February to hit the significant milestone of 100 million barrels of gross production from the Shaikan Field since inception. Looking ahead, we see a significant growth opportunity from the field's substantial gross reserves and resources, which are estimated at around 780 million barrels of oil following 2021 production. Our focus through the draft FDP, which I will talk about shortly, is the address -- is to address this opportunity by ramping up production from the Jurassic reservoir which has been our production focus to date. And by testing the Triassic reservoirs, which is estimated to contain around 157 million barrels of gross 2C resources. Now turning to our 2022 work program. Next slide. We are currently planning to invest between $85 million to $95 million in 2022. This includes several components: drilling and completing Shaikan-15, targeting online in the second quarter, well interventions and workovers to optimize production, constructing well pads and installing flow lines to prepare for a continuous drilling program ahead of the FDP approval, and lastly, preparing for the expansion of our production facilities to include water handling. We progressed on -- with progress on the FDP, we plan to resume drilling activity and update our capital guidance this year. Turning now to the draft FDP. Next slide. We were pleased to submit a Draft Field Development Plan to the MNR in November last year. As a result of positive progress with the MNR, we are today pleased to provide an interim update on the plan and an overview of scope, timing and costs. While details may vary as we continue to optimize the Field Development Plan and the timing of approval remains uncertain, we are targeting a significant ramp up in profitable production, while simultaneously transforming our carbon intensity. As a result of a series of optimizations, we are now targeting to increase Phase 1 gross plateau production by 10,000 barrels of oil per day to between 85,000 to 95,000 barrels of oil a day. The higher plateau production resulted in an increase of total Phase 1 gross CapEx of around $160 million from the prior FDP now estimated at $800 million to $925 million. Phase 1 has comprised of up to 85,000 barrels of oil per day from the Jurassic reservoir and up to 10,000 barrels a day from the Triassic reservoirs. Currently, we are -- we will implement a Gas Management Plan -- sorry, concurrently, we will implement a Gas Management Plan to eliminate routine flaring through gas reinjection, underpinning our target of more than halving scope 1 and scope 2 emissions intensity by 2025. The scope of the Gas Management Plan has evolved from sweetening the associated gas for export and recovering elemental sulphur to reinjecting the gas. The recent reprocessing of seismic data, further studies and analyzing additional well data, production data confirms the feasibility of reinjecting gas into the reservoir. We expect the Phase 1 Jurassic and Triassic projects to take between 36 to 42 months from FDP approval, while the expected duration of the Gas Management Plan is 18 to 24 months from approval. While our focus is on delivering Phase 1, we're also committed to exploiting the further potential of the field with a vision of increasing production above 95,000 barrels of oil per day through the expansion of the Triassic reservoir and the Cretaceous reservoir pilot. We believe the FDP is a tremendous opportunity to create value for all our stakeholders and particularly our investors and the people of Kurdistan and look forward to providing you with more detail upon approval. With that, I now hand you over to Ian for the financial review.
Ian Weatherdon
executiveThanks, Jon. Now on Slide 11, I'd like to place the strength of our 2021 results into historical context. Over the last few years, we have focused on building a strong foundation that enables us to navigate through economic downturns and quickly capitalize on improving conditions. This is evident in looking at the step change in EBITDA, profit and shareholders' distributions from 2020 to 2021. The Shaikan field has significant production potential. With consecutive increases in production over the last 3 years and a relentless focus on costs, the business generates significant cash flow with leverage to oil prices. This enables us to balance sustainable growth with shareholder returns. We appreciate that shareholder returns are becoming increasingly more important and remain committed to striking the right balance between growth and returns going forward. Next slide. Adjusted EBITDA, a common measure of cash flow increased almost fourfold in 2021 to a record $223 million. This was driven by a 19% increase in gross production to 43,440 barrels per day and our strong leverage to recovery in oil prices, with a realized price for our crude oil sales more than doubling to $50 a barrel. Operating costs were up with increased production and completion of deferred activities from 2020. On a unit basis, gross OpEx was $2.70 a barrel. Also, share option expense reduced EBITDA by $7 million due principally to the exercise of options under the legacy Value Creation Plan. Next slide. The strong increase in adjusted EBITDA underpinned strong cash flow generation in the year. Net CapEx was $51 million, including Shaikan-13 and Shaikan-14 drilling and completion activities and the debottlenecking of PF-2. Working capital reduced cash flow by about $40 million, driven by higher oil prices and increasingly delayed KRG payments despite the continued collection of arrears. This was partially offset by increased accounts payable. In 2021, we generated $122 million of free cash flow, enabling us to distribute $100 million of dividends in 2021. Next slide. We remain focused on strictly controlling our costs. Gross OpEx per barrel increased slightly in the year to $2.70 a barrel from $2.60 and was in the middle of our $2.50 to $2.90 per barrel guidance range. Higher operating costs due to increased activity were substantially offset by higher production. Other G&A expenses were up slightly, also due to increased operational activity. Next slide. In 2021, we received net $222 million from the KRG, including payments for both crude oil sales and arrears. Since the beginning of 2022, we have received an additional $106 million for the September to November 2021 invoices. To date, we have collected over 70% of the original $73 million net arrears balance, with an outstanding balance now standing at $22 million. We are currently awaiting payment for the December 2021 crude oil sales and arrears, and we'll update the market on receipt. Next slide. Maintaining a robust balance sheet is a strategic priority for Gulf Keystone. Financial strength provides us with resilience through the commodity cycle and the flexibility we need to execute our strategy. At current oil prices, our low-cost structure and focus on capital discipline underpins significant cash generation. As at the 29th of March, we had around $183 million of cash in the bank and $100 million of debt that does not mature until mid-2023. We have a track record of maintaining a net cash position, which enables us to develop the Shaikan Field and manage potential downside risks. We are mindful of the evolving situations regarding the recent Iraqi Supreme Court ruling on the constitutional basis of the Kurdistan Oil and Gas Law and the potential sanctions implications resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While we have seen no impact on our business, we are closely monitoring the situations. The payment of dividends on the right partly explains the slight decline in our equity ratio since 2018. That said, the ratio remains robust and well above our bond covenants. While we have used hedging in the past to manage periods of extreme volatility, we do not currently have a program in place, given the strong outlook for oil prices and a flexible spending program. However, we see hedging as a useful tool, and we'll continue to monitor the environment and our future spending profile and adjust our approach as necessary. Turning now to shareholder distributions on the next slide. We are very pleased today to declare additional dividends of $90 million, further demonstrating our commitment to balance investment in growth and returns to shareholders. The declared dividends are comprised of a $25 million 2021 annual ordinary dividend, which will be proposed to shareholders at our upcoming AGM in June, and a $65 million interim dividend, which we plan to pay on the 13th of May 2022. Today's announcement takes total dividends declared in 2022 to $140 million, equating to a pro forma yield of 22% based on yesterday's closing share price. In aggregate, the company has declared total distributions of $340 million since 2019. Assuming timely payment of invoices and continuing strong oil prices, we are expecting strong cash flow generation in 2022. This would provide flexibility to fund the potential increase in CapEx with progress on the FDP and the opportunity for further distributions to shareholders. With that, I'll now hand it back to you, Jon.
Jon Harris
executiveThanks, Ian. Following a strong year of operational and financial delivery, we have another important year ahead of us. We remain focused on delivering our production guidance, maintaining strict control of our costs and continue to invest in the field to position for future growth. We are executing our sustainability strategy, and we maintain our focus on safe operations, continue to generate significant economic value for Kurdistan and explore other projects to further reduce our emissions. Sustainable growth includes bringing Shaikan-15 online and preparing for FDP activity as we continue to seek approval from the MNR. With further progress on the FDP, we expect to resume drilling and increase '22 capital guidance. As we have outlined today, the price for Gulf Keystone and our stakeholders is enormous with an opportunity to drive further production growth, while transforming our carbon intensity. At the same time, we remain committed to balancing investment in growth for shareholder returns, and I'm pleased we are continuing to develop our track record with the additional $90 million dividend we have declared today, taking 2022 declared dividends to $140 million. With that, I now hand back to the operator for questions. Thank you.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. We will take our first question today from Werner Riding of Peel Hunt.
Werner Riding
analystJust on the FDP. You mentioned in the statement this morning, further progress is required ahead of approval from the MNR. But I'm just interested to hear what feedback you've received so far from them. And what your understanding is of the current status of the approval process. Just trying to understand really what's outstanding or what gaps need to be closed between your thinking and theirs before they can approve it.
Jon Harris
executiveYes. Thanks, Werner. Well, we continue to have good dialogue with them and get good feedback from them. And essentially, we're kind of honing in on scope and costs and budgets. And of course, you'll understand we need to agree that before we can continue.
Ian Weatherdon
executiveI think, Werner, as you can appreciate and as you can see today, we are providing the outline for the FDP going forward with some very concrete details around time frames, around an increase in our production level. And what we need to do is further progress. And at this stage, the discussions are progressing and we prefer not to provide particular details beyond that just to maintain the commercial sensitivity of the negotiations.
Werner Riding
analystOkay. I'll try something else, if that's okay. Then on Russian sanctions, you mentioned the possibility of impact on your business. The most visible indirect link, I can see is via Rosneft as a joint owner of your export pipeline. And so could you perhaps talk about what considerations you've given to this? And how any potential disruption could manifest itself? And what mitigants could there be?
Jon Harris
executiveYes, certainly. Obviously, currently, sanctions aren't affecting our business. We have obviously looked at what might happen if those sanctions do come into effect. Obviously, it's not completely our choice because it's a partnership with the Kurdish Government, and we would work with them to provide a solution. I mean previously we didn't have a pipeline, and we used to track our crews. And that is one possible solution for us, if it was not possible to continue to use the pipeline. But we're confident that we can work through any solution to maintain production with the Kurdish Government.
Werner Riding
analystOkay. Am I right in thinking that it's the only potential for the indirect consequence or impact could come from. You are referring to the Rosneft JV-owned pipeline. Is that what I'm -- am I right in thinking that?
Jon Harris
executiveCorrect, yes. We've done a review of our business in terms of other impacts, such as drilling equipment and the like and operational equipment. And actually, we're not exposed to Russia. We don't believe we're exposed to Russian companies. That review showed there was a lift or no engagement with the Russian companies.
Operator
operatorWe will take our next question from Charlie Sharp of Canaccord.
Charlie Sharp
analyst2 questions, or 2.5 questions, maybe, if I may. Firstly, could you remind me of the reserves and resources split between Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs. Secondly, on water handling, I think you gave an indication in the presentation that you're expediting plans. Could you put a little more detail on to that and give us some indication of where you are in the process, and perhaps what the year-end water handling capacity would be? And then finally, just on the $100 million note maturing July next year, what are your thoughts on extending that, refinancing it or just simply repaying?
Jon Harris
executiveThanks very much. So I think your first question was on the resource split between Jurassic and Triassic. I think -- well, I'll refer you to Slide 7, and I'll also give you the numbers. So essentially, as we've got of 2P resource in the Jurassic, we have around 490 million stock barrels. And then from a 2C perspective, we have 80 million barrels in the Jurassic plus 157 in the Triassic. So if unless you have any more questions on that, I'll move on to water handling...
Charlie Sharp
analystNo. Thank you.
Jon Harris
executiveMove on to water handling capacity. I mean, currently, we have very little ability to handle water. That's today. We've always had plans, and we were in the process of installing as part of the plans to expand capacity. We're looking at installing the water handling, and we're expediting that at the moment. I think at the end of the year, it's unlikely that we will have any, but we intend -- we hope to have some next year, which will allow us to deal with substantial quantities of water, but we're not expecting that. That's a progressive increase in water production over the life of the field, which we've always modeled. It's just that we -- it was just a little earlier than we expected on one of our wells. And the last one about the $100 million notes, I'll hand over to Ian to answer. Ian?
Ian Weatherdon
executiveThanks, Jon. Yes. So when we think about the financing strategy, we have to really step back and think about the FDP. Ultimately, the first step is around the funding commitments going forward. And we've talked broadly about the total capital commitments for Phase 1. As we progress, we'll potentially refine that. And of course, a key driver to funding will be around timing as we progress towards approval. The great thing about where we sit today is we have significant financial strength. And if you look at the balance sheet capacity, we have significant capacity on the balance sheet to fund the FDP. And that's against the backdrop as well as very strong oil prices. So to a large extent, the FDP probably could be self-funded. But we do have that flexibility in terms of debt as well. So we will continue to monitor the markets. We'll look at different options. Of course, the Nordic bond market has been tried and true for our Gulf Keystone, and actually more recently, almost all of the Kurdish peers. So that's a very good market and relative to our cost of equity, albeit the coupon is higher, it's much, much more affordable than our cost of equity. So as we march forward, we will continue to think about debt financing options, and those debt financing options will not only able us to fund the FDP, but also provide flexibility to continue with distribution through the investment phase.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Teodor Sveen-Nilsen of Sparebank 1 Markets.
Teodor Nilsen
analystCongrats on full year results. Three questions from me, if I may. Firstly, just on KRG public expenses. What do you know about the exact level right now? Also then maybe similar to that, minor payment irregularity that we've seen recently. Second question, what is your preference of dividend -- cash dividend versus buyback? Just some general comments would be useful, how you think around that? And my third question is just to confirm, did you say that you expect 36 months from FDP approval until you will be able to reach 85,000 barrels a day? Any clarification would be useful.
Jon Harris
executiveSorry, Teodor, that last question, could you just repeat it, please. It was a little -- we didn't get you -- you broke up a bit.
Teodor Nilsen
analystYes, sure. Can you confirm that you said you expect 36 months from FDP approval until the level of 85,000 barrels per day? Or did I misunderstand those 36 months?
Jon Harris
executiveRight. Okay. You want to add to that?
Ian Weatherdon
executiveYes. Happy to speak about the dividends and the buybacks. It's a discussion that we have at the Board on an ongoing basis when we think about distributions. And we do think about all of the different options, whether it be a dividend or whether it be a share buyback. And as you can see, we've used both tools in the past. Dividends have certain options of benefits and also share buybacks have certain benefits to them. When you think about a dividend, particularly when we're thinking about a dividend in terms of the size that we have, given the cash generation, it's much easier to pay a dividend relative to share buybacks. If you look at the liquidity in the stock, it would take a significant period of time for us to return the $65 million interim dividend back to shareholders. And it has also the impact if you do share buybacks in large scale, we also have to think about future liquidity in the stock. That being said, share buybacks are a great tool because you can implement them opportunistically. They have a long-term benefit to shareholders. So notwithstanding the high share price that we currently sit today and still well below analyst expectations, we'll continue to consider share buybacks and also dividends as we march forward.
Jon Harris
executiveYes. I think, Teodor, you had 2 other questions and one was about KRG public expenses. And I mean, we can't really comment on how the KRG is spending its money and its ability to pay us. So we're not really going to answer that, other than we have seen regular payments for our invoices, albeit they are just over the contract period. So they're late, but I think that's all we would really say about that. And we don't anticipate that changing in the near term. I think on your last question is, yes, it's -- I think I gave a range of 36 months to 42 months following approval of the FDP that we would get to the capacity of 85,000 to 95,000 barrels a day. And there is a range because the Triassic reservoirs that is a pilot or a test, and we are unsure about how they're going to perform until we actually get into production. So the expectation is 10,000 barrels a day -- up to 10,000 barrels a day from the Triassic, but we don't know until we actually start producing those wells.
Operator
operatorWe will take our next question from David Round of Stifel.
David Round
analystCan I start with the SH-13 well, please? I noticed that there was an update post the asset stimulation that the well was below expectations, but you're now saying it's in line. Could you just comment on what's happened there, how much that well is producing because I suppose I would have expected to see a bit more of a production impact to your overall number. Secondly, just a follow-up to Charlie's water handling question. And looking at your CapEx budget for 2022, are you able to split that out for us at all and perhaps quantify any water handling expense that is in there. And then maybe just finally, on the expansion, just to clarify that Plan A is now reinjecting the gas or maybe it always was. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought reinjecting the gas was still unproven. So I'd appreciate any comments there.
Jon Harris
executiveSure, David. Thanks. I think on Shaikan-13, I think when we gave the operational update, we had done the asset job, but it was cleaning -- the well cleans up over time. And actually, what we've seen is it's continued to clean up and now it's producing within the range. And our range for new wells is between 4,000 to 6,000 barrels a day, so it's within that range. Water handling cost expenditure. It's a small amount within the $85 million to $95 million. And yes, at this point in time, we are to expressions of interest with contractors and also tendering a different solution. So we'll be able to update that later in the year when we have those answers. But from a budget perspective, it's a smaller part of the $85 million to $95 million. And gas reinjection. Well, originally, gas injection was the proposal back in 2018 or '19, it predates me, so forgive me if I get the year wrong, but it was the original. The last update previously we gave in last year's annual report, we were talking about processing the gas -- our gas H2S and CO2, sweetening that gas. So we take out those components and export the gas and then have to process the sour gas through to elemental sulphur, which is quite a complex and difficult process. Since then, we've kind of reevaluated the reservoir, the performance of the reservoir and what we're seeing. And also -- so now we've done some more modeling and some studies. And now we believe that there isn't an issue with reinjecting the gas into the reservoir. So it is -- we have changed concept since the last time, and we are looking at reinjecting the gas again as the preferred solution. That's what's in the Field Development Plan and that's been proposed. In fact, we're out tendering that solution as we speak as well.
David Round
analystOkay. And 2 quick follow-ups, if you don't mind. The -- firstly, is the KRG happy with that solution? Or do you think there is a preference for them to monetize, sell the gas, export the gas, that certainly seems to be a theme that's coming out. And just on that CapEx -- 2022 CapEx, are you able just to give us a bit more detail into how that's split between the activities that are going on in '22?
Jon Harris
executiveOkay. So are the KRG happy with the gas? Absolutely, I mean, as I said, we are tendering that. So we have to do that in line with the KRG approval. So they are happy with us pursuing that as a solution very much. With '22 expenditures, well, I think, I gave -- I ran through a list of expenditures actually during the presentation, and I'll just draw your attention to. I mean it includes -- so 85 to 90 includes drilling and completing of Shaikan-15. So that's -- we spent that money. We are actually planning a number of well interventions and workovers this year on existing wells. That's to ensure production and potentially get a little bit of extra production from those wells. And we're also constructing well pads and install flow lines as preparation for a continuous drilling program ahead of the FDP. So that's also a chunk of 85 to 90, and we are also looking at expanding. The expansion of the production facilities at the moment, as I said, we're looking at -- we're tendering that as well. So it's a relatively small proportion of the 85. So I hope that kind of gives you sufficient clarity around our expenditures this year.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. We will take our next question from Nik Stefanou of Renaissance Capital.
Nikolas Stefanou
analystIt's Nick from Renaissance. And congrats on the on the strong numbers. I just want to go back to David's question. So the idea then here would be that you will reinject the gas -- the sour gas, proceed at the crest, and the hope is that it would create a gas cap. And is that kind of like the overall thesis of the reinjection plan?
Jon Harris
executiveYes. Simplistic yes. What we're going to do is we'll collect up the sour gas that we currently flare and we'll dry it and we'll compress it and we'll reinject it into the top of the reservoir as you've proposed. In terms of not creating a gas cap, we believe that gas cap already exists. The pressure -- we dropped the pressure somewhere around 350 PSI since inception. And it was at the bubble point. So that means that there has to be a gas cap already exist, and we're going to put a new well into that to dispose of the sour gas.
Nikolas Stefanou
analystOkay. Got you. And then if we go to the expansion phase, did I understand correctly that the 10,000 barrel range is effectively the uncertainty in the Triassic? So it's 85 production capacity at the Jurassic and the kind of like -- and it's effectively 0 to 10,000 barrels per day for the Triassic. Is that the case?
Jon Harris
executiveI think there are 2 Triassic reservoirs. One of them is kind of well defined by our appraisal program that we did previously. And I'm relatively confident on that, the ability for that to produce with a similar range that we expect from our Jurassic. The deeper KCB reservoir is a little bit less defined, which is why it's more of a test and there's some uncertainty around that. So yes, the range is majoritively around the Triassic performance, albeit I'm expecting the KCA to be able to produce quite strongly, initially.
Nikolas Stefanou
analystOkay. But then -- I mean, since it's still kind of like more of like an appraisal, kind of like stage then, I was just wondering how much of that CapEx is kind of like allocated to the Triassic. And in case the productivity is what you would expect, then it could also reduce the CapEx [ EBIT ] quite material, I presume, right?
Jon Harris
executiveSorry, was your question around Triassic like an appraisal? So yes, yes it is. Absolutely. But it's a dynamic appraisal. We've got a lot of staffing data from the original wells that we drilled. And what we've got in there is the cost for that appraisal pilot if we're going to call that a test/pilot. I wasn't quite sure about the last part of the question, though.
Nikolas Stefanou
analystBecause it will effectively give a CapEx range that I would also presume it depends on the activity you do in the Triassic, which is, again, also a factor of the results? And I'm just trying to get an idea of what part of that CapEx is the Triassic in this case?
Ian Weatherdon
executiveYes. And so Nick, just maybe directionally, I would say, in line with the previous guidance, the Triassic was smaller. What we're trying to do is we're trying to provide an overview and help people to dimension the FDP. And what we would like is just a bit of flexibility to be able to progress and finalize those discussions and by all means, we will come back with those specifics once we have firm them up. And we have clarity, we will communicate that.
Operator
operatorAt this time, we have not received any further telephone questions. I would like to now hand the conference back to Jon Harris for any additional or closing remarks.
Jon Harris
executiveThank you, Molly. I'd just like to thank everyone who's joined us this morning. I hope you find that useful. We're very kind of pleased and proud of our strong operational and financial delivery for last year and also the beginning of this year. And we see that we're very excited as well around about the prospects for Gulf Keystone going forward into the future, and we're expecting another strong year this year, and we're hoping to come back shortly and tell you about the FDP approval and it's going into full development mode of the -- to realize the potential of this field, all stakeholders benefit. So with that, again, I'd like to thank you again and close the conference there. Thank you very much.
Operator
operatorThis would conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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