Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HAR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 5, 2024

Johannesburg Stock Exchange ZA Materials Metals and Mining earnings 56 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#1

Good. Can we start? Good morning. My name is Peter Steenkamp. I'm the CEO of Harmony, and it's a pleasure to be here today presenting the full year results for the financial year that ended on the 30th of June 2024. Please note of the safe harbor statement and allow me to start with a short update on Harmony and our strategy. Harmony is a gold mining specialist with a growing international copper footprint. We also produce small amounts of silver and uranium, and we have over 74 years of gold mining experience in South Africa, and we have been operating for over 2 decades in Papua New Guinea. Our mineral resources and mineral reserve declaration of close to 137 million ounces and 40 million ounces of gold and gold covenants, respectively, positions Harmony as a significant global mining company. Currently, our diversified portfolio of operating assets include 9 underground mines, 2 open pit mines and a significant tailings and treatment business. Surface retreatment is a great ESG story with the potential for another 100 years of hydro mining across South Africa. And at present, over 90% of our current production comes from South African gold. Now based on the current planning parameters, we expect approximate 20% of future production to be copper within the next 10 years. Now copper production will be from our Tier 1 Wafi-Golpu project in Papua New Guinea and the Eva Copper project in Australia. These copper projects will be transformational, moving Harmony further down the global cost curve and diversify into a future phasing metal. Our excellent FY '24 results perfectly demonstrate the benefits and the value we have created for all our stakeholders. This is what we call mining with purpose. Our study is aimed at producing safe, profitable ounces and improving margin through operational excellence and value-accretive acquisitions. All decisions are underpinned by our 4 strategic pillars namely responsible stewardship, operational excellence, cash certainty and effective capital allocation. Major capital is being allocated towards the higher-quality assets namely in Moab Khotsong and Mponeng as well as key projects that will lower our risk profile, such as Eva Copper and Wafi-Golpu. This ensures we continue growing our reserves and delivering improved margins and higher profitability, especially at these high-grade assets. We continue to invest in our optimized asset, or the red quadrant, which you will recall was the old Harmony, and to maintain flexibility and ensure optimal cash generation over the life of the assets. Investing in our existing assets is essential through -- for funding our growth path for the future. Harmony has adopted a proactive approach to safety through the use of leading indicators. Our focus has shifted towards the integration and sustainability of a safety culture, and we are emphasizing the importance of personal ownership of safety in the workplace. While we have implemented comprehensive systems and controls, it ultimately remains our responsibility as Harmonites to work safely at all times. We have a centralized operational risk management team providing support to all our operations and are using leading indicators to help drive further safety improvements. The digitalization and modernization, we have real-time dashboards to monitor and continue to improve these leading indicators. We are currently monitoring over 9 million golden control data points. This ensures we prevent significant unwanted events before they occur. And as a company, we have embraced the culture of learning and strive for continuous improvement. Our cultural transformation journey has reached about 80% completion to date, and we are progressing this through regular visible [ thought ] leadership engagements, along with other safety awareness initiatives across the operations. We continue to equip our teams through ongoing leadership development and training. I'm confident that we have the correct safety strategy in place and firmly believe that zero loss of life is possible. In the past financial year, Harmony delivered an exceptional combined performance across each operations. This achievement was a result of clear strategic intent and successful execution, enabling us to deliver above plan and capitalize on higher gold price. This results in a record year for the company. We aim to excel at what we do, and I believe that we achieved this goal. As I touched on the previous slide, safety is embedded in our strategy, and the loss time injury frequency rate per million ounces worked for FY '24 was at 5.53. This has remained below the 6 for 3 consecutive financial years and indicates we are on the right track. We are delivering on our ESG commitments, evident in our 1.2 billion employee share ownership scheme and our expanded renewable energy program. Gold production increased by 6% to 1.56 million ounces, beating our upward revised guidance. Underground recovered grades also exceeded the guidance, improving by 6% to 6.11 grams per tonne. Our costs remain under control, with all-in sustaining costs coming in at ZAR 901,000 per kilogram, which was well below the guidance. In dollars, all-in sustaining costs decreased by 4% to $1,500 per ounce. And operating free cash flow increased by over 100% to a record ZAR 13 billion or USD 681 million at a margin of 22%. This was driven by higher recovered grades and strong gold prices. As a result, our balance sheet has strengthened further and is in a net cash position of ZAR 2.9 billion or USD 159 million. Our headline earnings per share increased by 132% to ZAR 0.1852 or USD 0.99 per share. In line with our dividend policy, we are paying a full year dividend of ZAR 0.94 or USD 0.05 per share. This demonstrate confidence in our planning as we aim to reward our shareholders alongside our growth aspirations. Our FD Boipelo Lekubo will unpack the financials in detail a little bit later. So responsible stewardship is embedded in our operating model. Our sustainable development strategy aims to reduce risk, while maximizing opportunities, leaving a positive impact through shared value creation. As a result of our actions, we continue to receive positive external recognition for our embedded approach to sustainability and disclosure transparency. We have been included in the FTSE4Good Index for the seventh consecutive year. Our inclusion in the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index for 6 consecutive years demonstrate that we embrace gender diversity, inclusivity and treat all our employees fairly. Our best practice, water managed strategy, has once again resulted in a score of A from the CDP. As you can see, mining with purpose is what we are all about. Now growing our quality ounces is critical long-term success and longevity. We continue to invest in converting resources to reserves, while striking a balance between capital intensity and shareholder returns. Harmony has a globally significant mineral resource and reserve base. We have demonstrated that the reserve conversion is still one of the most cost-effective ways of creating value. There is, therefore, a substantial opportunity to continue investing in this exciting gold copper story. Our mineral reserves increased by around 2% on the back of Mponeng extension, and Eva Copper is expected to underpin further resource conversion into -- once the study is complete. Our production profile has been significantly decreased, and further future production will come from a combination of South African surface and underground gold, Papua New Guinea copper and gold and Australian copper. As we target growth, we will only pursue those opportunities that meet our strict investment criteria and improve the quality of our portfolio. Further expansion would either be through the acquisition of a late-stage project or preferably through the acquisition of a producing asset that immediately be cash flow positive for Harmony. Any new investment opportunities must, first of all, lower our overall risk profile, improve our margins, deliver meaningful returns, extend our production profile with quality ounces and, of course, remain affordable through the cycle. The acquisition of Mponeng, Moab Khotsong and Mine Waste Solutions were transformational. When we acquired this asset, we had hoped that we would be able to extend the lives of these assets. Now after comprehensive studies, these acquisitions all received approval for extension. We are pleased that the first position of the Kareerand extension at Mine Waste Solutions, our mega tailings retreatment operation, will happen in October. This project extends the life of mine of Mine Waste Solutions to 14 years. And encouragingly, the streaming contract concludes towards the end of this calendar year. Once this end, we expect to see a 20% uplift in the gold price received from Mine Waste Solutions. The extension projects at Moab Khotsong and Mponeng are progressing well, and we have extended the lives of these mines to at least 20 years. Decline work at Moab Khotsong and the development of the carbon leader section of Mponeng are underway. We have also commenced the rehabilitation of the dug tunnel shaft pillar, which we will be mined through in Mponeng. These projects have added a combined 5.2 million ounces of gold reserves and will ensure a steady state production at each mine of over 200,000 ounces at a recoverable grade of 9 grams a tonne. As a result, these high-grade mines will continue delivering excellent margins at an all-in sustaining cost for many years to come. The feasibility study update in Eva Copper is also progressing well. Due to its importance, the Eva Copper project has been given a prescribed project status, and the Queensland government has provided AUD 20.7 million in conditional for the round funding to help accelerate the project. Early works have commenced, and we are continuing with the resource drilling. Subject to the feasibility study outcome, Eva Copper is expected to produce between 50,000 and 60,000 tonnes of copper per annum and 14,000 ounces of gold over its 15-year life of mine. The all-in sustaining cost is anticipated to be in the middle of the global cost curve. Now at Wafi-Golpu, negotiations between the state negotiation team, Harmony and our JV partner, are ongoing as we work to convert the signed memorandum of understanding into a mining development contract. Capital expenditures necessary for ounce replacement and growth as we maintain and improve the quality of our portfolio. As we invest across all those assets, we expect total capital expenditure for FY '25 to increase to ZAR 10.8 billion or just under $600 million. Despite this increase, total capital intensity remains low at approximately ZAR 250,000 per kilogram or $415 per ounce based on the FY '25 production guidance. Again, this slide will just be in U.S. dollars. Let me just make sure I don't think I -- yes, I'm on the last slide, Slide 16. Let me break this down per operation. Although Harmony is in a period of higher capital expenditure, we have a balance between growth and flexibility. Most of our major capital continues to be allocated to high-grade underground projects such as Moab Khotsong and Mponeng as well as our high margin, low-risk surface retreatment operations. Sustaining capital is also increasing mainly as a result of an increase in development meters across the underground mines to maintain flexibility. And you will notice that the increase is mainly at our 4 optimized underground operations. We're also factoring in inflationary increases in costs, in line with our planning parameters. We are increasing our spend on information technology as part of our ongoing upgrades. And there's also ongoing management of our tailing storage facilities and remains of utmost importance, while bringing Harmony in line with the global industry standard of tailings management. This is the same slide just in U.S. dollars. So our continuous investment across all our operations will ensure that we not only improve our margins, but remain a sustainable 1.4 million ounce producer well into the future. As we mined and optimized assets, represented by the red segment, you will notice that the quality of our ounces improved driving the margins higher over time. Our portfolio also has a long life, but the potential for further life of mine extensions, especially at these higher grade gold prices. As I mentioned, our international projects introduced a significant copper into the production mix. Beyers Nel, our Group Chief Operating Officer, will now take you through the operational results. So over to you, Beyers.

Beyers Nel

executive
#2

Thank you, Peter. The strong results in this reporting period were due to our ongoing investment and commitment to operational excellence. This has underpinned our success and enabled Harmony to take advantage of the high gold prices. However, everything we do starts with safety, and I must emphasize that is not negotiable. A safe mine, we argue, is a profitable mine. Harmony has a healthy organizational culture, which we believe is a true differentiator amongst our peers. Our operational flexibility and predictability in our planning ensure we consistently deliver the tonnes alongside higher quality ounces. We have achieved guidance for the ninth consecutive year now if we factor in the COVID revision. We are continuing to invest in productivity enhancements and infrastructure reliability to reduce stoppages and maintain momentum. Our underground recovered grades have improved remarkably, and productivity enhancements will ensure we deliver the required square meters each month. As Peter said, Mponeng and Moab Khotsong and Hidden Valley outperformed in FY '24 on the back of excellent grades. We do, however, expect lower grades at Hidden Valley. While at Doornkop, production will be lower after we revised our plans to ensure safe ounces. Our stable and predictable cost structure has moved us down the global cost curve. Not only have we benefited from having a rand cost base, but the 5-year wage agreement ensures fixed labor escalations are predictable. Our power supply from Eskom is also regulated, with further savings expected from our renewable energy program. The strong partnerships we have built with our stakeholders ensure we remain the partner of choice, enabling us to continue operating successfully. Our substantial mineral resource base of almost 137 million ounces presents an abundance of opportunities to grow our mineral reserve through internal investment and greenfields projects. Earlier, Peter touched on the safety strategy and the work being done to continuously improve our leading indicators. It ever requires a daily commitment, and we are confident that we will ultimately achieve our goal of 0 loss of life. The emphasis on improving our leading indicators has ensured our lagging indicators are trending in the right direction. And we have seen a remarkable improvement in that since 2016 when we started. Although our group lost time injury frequency rate remains below 6 at 5.53 per million hours worked, we have lost the lives of 7 of our colleagues during the financial year. And we extend our deepest condolences to the families of our late colleagues. Clearly, more needs to be done and more will be done to ensure each and every employee returns home safely every day. Through operational excellence and good mining discipline, we have improved recovered grades, delivering consistent production growth. Our investment in Mponeng and Moab Khotsong is the primary driver behind the consistent higher underground grades we are now achieving. At Hidden Valley, the recent outperformance was a result of the high-grade big red ore body, which we have now mined through, as planned. Recovered grades at our surface operations have also improved, driven mainly by Mine Waste Solutions. While 96% of our revenue is from gold, our byproducts play an important role in offsetting some of our costs, 3% of our revenues from silver produced in Hidden Valley and 1% is from uranium mined at Moab Khotsong. Silver production increased by 39% to a record 3.7 million ounces, generating revenue of ZAR 1.7 billion. Uranium produced -- production, rather, increased by 13% to 590,000 pounds, generating revenue of just under ZAR 900 million. Our South African high-grade operations in Mponeng and Moab Khotsong have introduced high-grade quality ounces to the portfolio. Average recovered grades from these mines exceed 9 grams per tonne, with production over 15,000 kilograms at operating free cash flow margin of 32%. Both mines delivered an impressive performance in FY '24, exceeding their plans across all operational metrics. And as we head into the new financial year, we will focus on major extension projects at these mines. To that end, ZAR 2.2 billion has been allocated towards these decline projects for FY '25. Harmony's investment in quality ounces has resulted in record operating free cash flow this financial year. We can attribute some of this to the gold price. However, the real driver has been the improvement in margins on the back of our mines achieving their plans. Total operating free cash flow for the group increased by 111% to ZAR 12.7 billion or USD 681 million. Allow me now to touch on each of the quadrants to illustrate our confidence in our cash flows going forward. Our South African high-grade operations, namely Mponeng and Moab Khotsong, have introduced high-grade quality ounces to the portfolio. Average recovered grades from these mines exceed 9 grams per tonne, with production over 15,000 kilograms at an operating free cash flow margin of 32%. Both these mines delivered an impressive performance in financial year '24, exceeding their plans across all metrics. As we head into the new financial year, we will focus on major extension projects at these mines. To this end, ZAR 2.2 billion has been allocated towards these decline projects. The South African optimized portfolio consists of our 7 underground mines and contribute close to 40% of our total production or 19,000 kilograms of gold. While margins are typically lower, these mines still generated ZAR 2 billion in operating free cash flow and play a critical role in funding our growth strategy. In order to ensure optimal free cash flow generation over the life of mine, it is necessary to maintain flexibility to achieve our plans and reduce costs. Capital these -- capital expenditure on these operations is therefore predominantly sustaining capital for ongoing development. Our focus remains on ensuring that these mines achieve their planned targets, especially Doornkop and Target 1, with studies underway to potential -- for the potential extension of Tshepong North. Our South African surface operations delivered a phenomenal performance, with production increasing by 21% to around 9,000 kilograms. This now represents 11% of group production with all-in sustaining costs decreased to just over ZAR 700,000 a kilogram, illustrating how profitable these operations are at current gold prices. These operations generated ZAR 2.6 billion in operating free cash flow at a margin of 25% in FY '24. As Peter said, we are pleased that the legacy streaming contract comes to an end before the end of this calendar year. Once this ends, we expect the gold price received for gold sales at Mine Waste Solutions to increase by around 20%. This is expected to generate over ZAR 900 million in additional cash flow for the group. The extension of the Kareerand tailings storage facility will continue into FY '25, and we have around ZAR 1.8 billion earmarked for capital expenditure at our surface operations. Further feasibility studies are underway to determine whether we can create another mega tailings retreatment operation in the Free State where we have 5.7 million ounces in resources in our old tailings dams. We believe there is good potential to remine our old tailings dams in South Africa for possibly another 100 years. Our international portfolio of which Hidden Valley is currently the only operating mine delivered a standout performance in FY '24. Hidden Valley generated over ZAR 2 billion in operating free cash flow at a margin of 35%. Production increased by 17% to over 5,100 kilograms. As mentioned earlier, having mined through the big red ore body, grades will be lower in FY '25 now that we have commenced with Stage 8 stripping. This is all in line with the mine's life of mine plan. We are busy conducting studies to determine whether the life of mine at Hidden Valley can be extended further. And we are progressing the feasibility study update on Eva Copper and Wafi-Golpu permitting as Peter alluded. This slide is a good summary or comparison of our operational performance across our various business units. This illustrates the Harmony portfolio has changed significantly over the past 8 years, having derisked with vastly improved profitability. Boipelo Lekubo, our Financial Director, will now discuss our financial performance for the past financial year. Boipelo, over to you.

Boipelo Lekubo

executive
#3

Thank you, Beyers. Harmony delivered an excellent financial performance and outstanding earnings growth in FY '24 on the back of the information shared by Beyers and Peter. Group revenue increased by 25% to ZAR 61 billion on the back of the higher production and the excellent gold price. Net profit increased by 78% to ZAR 8.7 billion, while the rolling 12-month EBITDA increased by 54% to just under ZAR 19 billion. As mentioned in our trading update, Target North has been impaired by ZAR 2.8 billion. Adjusting for this, headline earnings per share increased by 132% to ZAR 0.1852. Strong operating free cash flows resulted in our balance sheet shifting further into a net cash position. And as at June 30, 2024, we had a net debt cash position of ZAR 2.9 billion. This is just our financials translated into dollars. Group revenue increased by 18% to $3.3 billion, and headline earnings were up 122% to USD 0.99 per share. Harmony has a balanced capital allocation framework, which focuses on 5 core areas, namely ongoing safety and production optimization, rather, as we aim for 0 loss of life; maintaining a strong balance sheet and a net debt to EBITDA below 1x, which is what we've done; organic and inorganic growth, which improves the quality of our portfolio; and returning capital to shareholders, in line with our dividend policy. We have delivered a consistent increase in revenue over the past 3 years, and headline earnings per share has also increased by over 700% in the past 8 years on the back of our acquisitions and investment in quality ounces. Moving on to costs. The majority of our costs remain predictable and manageable. It is split between labor, consumables and electricity. Sustaining capital represents only 10% of our total all-in sustaining costs, as you can see. And we've not seen any major changes in the split year-on-year. Going forward, we anticipate cost escalations to remain predictable and in line with planned inflationary increases due to a rand cost base. Cash operating costs, as I've mentioned, remained well under control. In rand per kilogram terms, cost increased only 3% as a result of annual salary escalations, electricity tariff hikes and higher royalties. Byproduct credits from silver and uranium increased by 91%. In U.S. dollar per ounce terms, cash operating costs decreased by 2% to $1,262 an ounce. The 5% depreciation of the rand against the U.S. dollar helped drive cash operating cost per ounce lower in dollar terms. Based on our FY '25 planning parameters, all of our asset groupings have a life of mine margin of over 20%. And just to highlight that this is at a gold price of ZAR 1.25 million a kilogram. We spend capital to ensure we remain a profitable 1.4 million to 1.5 million ounce producer well into the future. Capital expenditure remains well sequenced. And at current gold prices, all of our approved projects are comfortably funded through internal cash generation and available facilities. With double-digit margins, we remain well positioned heading into the new financial year. Our FY '24 total capital intensity was also low at around ZAR 210,000 a kilogram or $350 an ounce. As Peter mentioned earlier, capital expenditure will increase in FY '25. But capital intensity, however, remains affordable at ZAR 250,000 a kilogram or $415 per ounce based on our FY '25 production plans. Apologies. I moved too early. We are also protecting margins through an effective hedging program. We typically hedge between 10% and 30% of production over 36 months as per our 30/20/10 amended program limits. Harmony has been in a net cash position since the beginning of this calendar year. Through financial discipline, we built a strong balance sheet, which, as mentioned earlier, is now in a sizable net cash position of ZAR 2.9 billion. Financial flexibility places Harmony in a strong position to continue on its growth trajectory. This is just the same slide in U.S. dollar terms. With over ZAR 12 billion or $600 million in headroom made up of cash and undrawn facilities, our balance sheet remains quite robust. Solid cash flows and balance sheet strength have once again allowed us to pay a dividend, while pursuing our growth aspirations. Our final dividend payment is ZAR 0.94 per share or USD 0.05 per share. We've delivered a geared year-on-year dividend increase, meaning that our dividend increase exceeded the increase in the gold price. Total cash returned to shareholders in FY '24 is close to ZAR 1.4 billion. This clearly demonstrates confidence in our plans and our cash flows. Allow me to hand back to Peter to conclude.

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#4

Thank you, Boipelo, and thank you, Beyers. So in conclusion, let me just get the slides to move, Harmony has followed a conservative approach to planning. We believe this is prudent given the nature and location of our operations. Much of what we achieved in 2024 -- FY '24 was due to Mponeng and Hidden Valley far exceeding their plans. As part of the FY '25 planning cycle, we have guided in line with our mine plans. As we progress with our risk-assessed life of mine plans, we believe our ore bodies can confidently deliver between 1.4 million and 1.5 million ounces in FY '25. Underground recovered grades are expected to be above the 5.8 grams per tonne. And all-in sustaining cost is expected to be between ZAR 1.02 million and ZAR 1.1 million per kilogram. So let's break down the cost guidance. This slide illustrates the drivers behind the higher all-in sustaining cost for FY '25. Now these include lower guided production alongside with higher developed capital spend across the underground mines. And we also factored in annual inflation increase of about 8.7%. Using the original FY '24 all-in sustaining cost guidance of ZAR 975,000 per kilogram as a reference point, this increase is in line with the annual mining cost inflation. The FY '24 all-in sustaining cost was much lower than guided due to Mponeng and Hidden Valley exceeding their annual production plans. We believe that the guided all-in sustaining cost is realistic, and we remain confident that Mponeng may well exceed these plans again this coming year. Harmony remains a solid investment and offers a compelling gold-copper story. We have a lower risk profile, and the safety remains our top priority. ESG is embedded in our operational model through a clear sustainable development strategy. We continue developing our skills and have an experienced management team with a strong succession pipeline in place. A search for my successor is well underway, as I will be retiring at the end of this calendar year. Operational excellence means our key operational metrics have improved, and we are maintaining good momentum at all our mines. We continue driving better efficiencies through the various business improvement initiatives, while project execution discipline remains critical given our significant pipeline. Our production profile is long and diversified. And we have a significant gold-copper resource base with excellent reserves conversion potential. Through our new business team, we have continuously identifying growth opportunities that we can potentially lower our risk and increase our margins. We are hoping to introduce near-term copper through our Eva Copper project and, of course, permit the Tier 1 Wafi-Golpu copper-gold porphyry. Our balance sheet is strong and flexible. And our capital allocation framework balances our growth aspirations alongside shareholder returns. In closing, I would like to -- a special thanks to my team for their dedication and commitments towards achieving our goals. And I really want to make that point that we have a team that we've put together, has been together for a very long period of time, and I've got the utmost respect for the mining team that we have here in Harmony. I would also like to thank our unions for their continued support, and some of them are here today We remain grateful to our Board, shareholders and other stakeholders for enabling us to position Harmony as a specialist gold producer with a growing international copper footprint. I'll now hand over for questions. And thank you, Jared, if you can just control that.

Jared Coetzer

executive
#5

Any questions?

Bruce Williamson

analyst
#6

Bruce Williamson, Integral Asset Management. Could you just share some thoughts on your underground operations where you've had an improvement in grades? Was that just naturally transitioning to higher grade? Or did you plan and target higher-grade areas? Or is that just a bigger focus on cleaner mining, reducing stoping work and avoiding excess waste?

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#7

No. I think the major driver for that was really acquiring much higher-grade assets in Mponeng and Moab Khotsong. So that in itself was -- I think this was a right decision for Harmony to the invite. And then we're also very grateful that we were able to do that at the time. The -- Mponeng, when we bought it was at grades we're not where it is today. But there was always this, we're going to mine. And as you know, sequential grade extraction that we have, you mine from one side to the other side. And we all -- AngloGold Ashanti always told us that we're going to get into very, very good grades, and we managed to get into good grades. And we're going to be there for that period now for quite a number of years. So that's on the back of the actually mining into the higher grades. Moab has been in the grades that we always had. But I think there's also a massive drive on quality and operational excellence that we try to put in place in all our operations. So we're obviously very strong. Harmony has got a great meeting on every operation every week. We are -- our internal auditor just walked in and she's actually auditing it for us. So she's making sure that we get -- making sure that we actually do it and it is properly recorded. And so we have a very strong grade discipline to get it right. So we don't drop the ball in terms of quality and stuff like that. But we are in -- these new mines that we bought was a game changer for us.

Leroy Mnguni

analyst
#8

Leroy Mnguni from HSBC. I've got a few questions, but I'll ask some of them and then just move to the back of the line. So if you look at your FY '25 guidance, actually, if we take it a step back in FY '24, you beat your initial guidance quite substantially. If you look at your FY '25 guidance, is there some optimism that there are certain parts in the portfolio where you're hoping to do a bit better than what you planned? So in other words, is it -- how conservative is that guidance? And then what Beyers was saying about the old tailings opportunity in the Free State, 5.7 million ounces, that sounds pretty exciting. I wonder if you can give us just a bit of color. I know the studies are ongoing, but just high level, would you need to build another plant there? How do the grades compare to your current tailings retreatment operations? And then the third question. Your CapEx has increased quite substantially, both for FY '25 and even more so for FY '26. If you could please just unpack what the drivers are for the increases in your medium-term CapEx guidance?

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#9

Okay. Thank you, Leroy. So let me start with this. This slide actually explained it quite a lot. Last year, we guided when we started ZAR 975,000 per kilogram. We managed to get at ZAR 901,000. And the big driver for that was obviously better production. So it was higher grade and well over the 6% better than planned in terms of the production. Now we don't plan to stop trying to do that, and we think we can. We obviously are -- were very strict in our -- on our planning parameters. We, as Harmony, never been in a thing that we overpromise and underdeliver. We believe that we need to be conservative in our planning, but also be conservative in the sense of being stretched, making sure that people do the right thing. But then if you put all of that together, you get to this number. And we don't want to guide now where we are in the beginning of the year, then it will be a different number. But having said that, our production at the moment, and Floyd is sitting here, he is our Operations -- Executive Operating Officer. We are in a very, very good momentum in all our operations. We're doing well. We're doing as well as we did last year so far. And we talked about Doornkop, which we just choked back a bit because we just wanted to make sure that we have enough wasting capacity. We do all the project work and the wasting of that. So that is a constraint. That's a bottleneck in Doornkop. And we want to make sure that, that is right, that people don't -- that we do all of that safely. So we choke it back a bit for a year. And for the -- until we're going to get the projects done. But that's about 10% of the Doornkop -- 10% to 15% of the Doornkop production that we've choked back. But other than that, I think we will have cost inflation of about 8%. We are lucky that we have now long-term agreements with our unions. We have -- obviously, the Eskom increases are still hanging in the balance. We are really busy with the first 30 megawatts that we've built. The other EPC contract that has been put together to start with the renewables for the new 100-megawatt plant that we're building. So we are in the process of building that. But that will not come in this financial year. So -- and then, of course, our all-in sustaining CapEx on the back of the better performance, we have to do more development because we have followed a very strict process in terms of understanding to create proper flexibility in the business. We call it iceberg management that we have to increase the production volumes and you have to obviously increase development with that. And then, of course, the other one is the -- there needs a little bit of work to be done on tailings facilities, we're also doing a lot of work in terms of our IT systems and also the threat of so-called cyber attacks and things like that are real. And we have to work and make sure that we are in the right space. But I think, all in all, being conservative, we will beat our guidance. We're confident in saying that we will beat our guidance, and we will be there. There's no reason at this point in time that we shouldn't be there. There's nothing in the horizon that say we cannot. On the Free State, Free State is exciting. It's actually due to this Free State and also West Wits. Free State is, obviously, we've got massive amount of -- we took quite a number of years of resources there that we can convert into reserves. Most likely, it will entail a partial building of a plant, but there's also obviously -- we are retreating in the Free State at the moment. We've got the central plant and the old [indiscernible] as we call it the old Harmony plant that has been converted into tailings retreatment. But we believe that we can -- this Mine Waste Solutions, big mega tailings facility retreat is a way to go. The constraint in the Free State will always be water. So it will never be as big as Mine Waste Solutions because of the water constraints that we have here. And so we -- but we're very excited about that. And obviously, the West Wits, equally excited about that. So -- but the feasibility study is underway. So it will be most likely a nice sizable plant and a tailings retreatment, not maybe the size of Mine Waste Solutions, but close to that. So -- but really excited about that. The capital slide, Boipelo, can you just see what number is that slide?

Boipelo Lekubo

executive
#10

Yes, that is 16.

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#11

16. Let me try and get back to that because it's easier to talk off the slide. I think we can unpack it properly.

Boipelo Lekubo

executive
#12

And just, Peter, to add before you unpack '25. Just remember, Leroy, '24, Mponeng deepening was not included there. So there's about ZAR 1 billion extra -- yes, from '24 to the '25.

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#13

Yes. So that's ZAR 1 billion, and we already started now a little bit of early works. But it will -- the full swing will be in -- this isn't this year. That's not a very fast thing. So let me try and get to that. There you are.

Boipelo Lekubo

executive
#14

Yes.

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#15

But let's get to that one. You can see that -- and let's put it in rand per kilogram terms. You see the sustaining CapEx, we talked about the sustaining CapEx. The more development, the [ board ] of that compared to what we've what we delivered on in the previous year. And obviously, you look at it, it was about ZAR 4 billion to ZAR 5 billion. But the big jump is really that ZAR 1 billion that we're going to spend more on growth capital, and that is the Mponeng extension. It's going to be well as far as Moab Khotsong is concerned. That will be steady state. The same we keep on developing, developing the declines. But then, of course, Mponeng extension will be a big number there. The rest is more or less the same. They are -- Even their capital is really just the first stripping. Just that's what we plan to do in this year compared to the previous year. But the ZAR 10.8 billion, I always say, is a big number. It is -- I've never spent that good amount of money in 1 year. But we think we've got the plans to do it because, especially on the golden side, and you can see last year, we were managing our projects. It was very well managed, what is set in the guidance and what we in actual fact achieved was very much in line. And I'm very, very pleased with the work. And in Beyers' leadership, but also with Floyd and the way that we, in actual fact, put together our project execution of pocket -- project office capabilities in Harmony at the moment. We've done a lot of work to improve our skills in that -- in the part of the projects. And I'm glad to see that our projects actually -- Mine Waste Solutions that we're going to start delivering -- [ boring ] the 1st in October. It [indiscernible] to me through a very good project management project that we've put in place and actually building that in time and also in budget. So a great achievement. So it's a big number. So we -- but we are confident that we will be able to do it. Adrian?

Adrian Hammond

analyst
#16

Adrian Hammond, SBG Securities. Peter, you've been instrumental on reshaping this company, probably key reason for us rerating. And I'd just like to commend your disclosure and your guidance has improved substantially for -- especially for sell-side analysts. But your -- a lot of key man risk here, I would say. How long do you intend staying with the company? And do you have -- what is your succession plan? And then secondly, if there's something that's on your to-do list, what's the most important that you'd like to do complete before you leave? And then for Boipelo, you're sitting on a lot of cash. What are your intentions with that cash? Are you going to be generating some more? I appreciate you got Eva coming up, but you could also increase your liquidity through debt. And how do you think about the capital structure of this company going forward?

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#17

Okay. Again, yes, my intention is to step down on the 31st of December. So starting the new year as a retirement -- the person in retirement. We -- I'm very -- we are well -- and obviously, it's about 4 months left to be done. And so the Board will make a decision and actually bring it to the market at the right time. It's well advanced in terms of finding my successor. I just want to make the point we have -- this was never a one-man show. It was always a team effort. And I've -- with the team that I've put together, myself and Beyers actually started together in 2016. You will recall at the time, the CEO retired. And his Chief Operating Officer resigned at the same time. So we had to start from scratch as a team. And we've been a strong team together. And obviously, also with all the other executives that we had, Marian has been here for a long time. But Velile joined us later after Frank left. We've been -- Mashego has been with us all the time. The team is so strong. I've got no problem in my time that this team will take this company to flying heights going forward. As a matter of fact, I think the younger, the better. What's the thing I still want to do before I retire? Wafi-Golpu permit. If I can get that right, then I would say that I've ticked every box that I wanted to tick here. That's the one. And hopefully, we will -- we can -- we didn't say a lot about that, but we really want to get over that line, but -- to get that mining development contract signed. And then we can start that massive, massive, exciting project that side of Harmony that will have. We are now in a much better position we've ever been to be able to execute that project and to participate in that project. I mean we -- in 2016, we most likely was like a dream to participate. Now we're in a position to do that. So that's what I would like to get right. And Boipelo, you can maybe take the capital side.

Boipelo Lekubo

executive
#18

Yes, all the cash. Yes, granted, Adrian, we are sitting in a nice position of a ZAR 12 billion headroom, that's cash and available facilities. But one should appreciate that we're in a high CapEx phase. As you can -- almost ZAR 11 billion, and we've also got Eva Copper looming. Yes, FID should be expected June next year. It's a 2-year build. So it's short. The last time we were at the market, CapEx was sitting at $600 million. Obviously, that was a 1.5 years ago. So the world has moved on inflation, et cetera. So you will expect that, that number is bigger. So before we can come to the market and commit on what that capital is, I think it's prudent that we maintain our dividend policy of 20%, which we've done. So it's always a balance when you look at these things, especially in our case, yes, the gold environment is favorable at the moment, but we have been through tough times. So you always have to maintain that level head around all these things.

Unknown Executive

executive
#19

Any more questions. Do you have any online, Jared?

Jared Coetzer

executive
#20

Actually, on the Chorus Call, we have coming through there.

Operator

operator
#21

We have no questions on the line.

Jared Coetzer

executive
#22

Okay. Peter and team, I've just got a question from [indiscernible] who's here. Just can you unpack a little bit in terms of the grade evolution over the next 2 to 3 years?

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#23

Yes. We -- what was -- if we will look at the long-term plan for Harmony, we are in good grades now for Mponeng. And the current life of mine before we go to the deepening part of that, which will be in the high grade, will be the same. Moab, as long as we mine the middle mine, it will be good grades. And obviously, when we are getting into the Saaiplaas project as we get, then I think the first time it's about 2 to 3 years from now, we will be in the Saaiplaas project. It will be good grades again. The -- then we are actually supposed to mine a high -- low-grade assets, like, for instance, Masimong. Masimong had a 2-year life of mine plan since I've started here. And we still have a 2-year life of mine. This year, we signed another 2-year life of mine. So it is there. But there's going to be a day that we have to call it a day at Masimong. And that is the kind of lower-grade asset that we have. The next mine, we've got a 3-year life of mine at Kusasalethu. We think it's the possibility to -- at good grades to extend that because we've got some drilling results that's fairly good. Provided that, that creates a sustainable future for us, we can potentially extend that. But that's obviously a much higher grade asset. So yes, I'm quite confident that the grades that we have now are going -- we are about 5.8 underground grades will get -- sustain itself for quite a number of years now. So -- and we are developing the higher margins or the higher-grade assets for the long term.

Jared Coetzer

executive
#24

Thanks, Peter. Just a question from René Hochreiter. I think you've answered the question on Wafi-Golpu already in terms of timing. But perhaps on Target and thoughts on the project that is completed, when we see Target becoming cash flow positive again.

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#25

Yes. No, we got that project over the line. And it was a difficult project to execute because of not necessarily the project itself, but because of environmental conditions and other kind of issues that we run in. It is -- Target is a very difficult mine in the sense that the way it was actually set up right from the beginning in the sense of how you ventilate it, how you cool it down. So we had to build [ switch ] plants and put [ switch ] plants on surface, try and get this cooling down and making sure that we get them done. But it's all done now. The crushers are down at the bottom. It's working well. We're driving downhill now to do our crushers, rather than 4 kilometers uphill. We are in the process now of creating the flexibility to [ solar ] drilling to make sure that we get ahead of time, et cetera, et cetera, to make sure that we have the things. But I'm very comfortable that Target will be a great mine going forward, not high grade, but good volumes and a mine that we will mine going forward. And there's obviously a lot of potential to that block, what we call Block 12, which is the old paradise part of the fence. That was many years ago was part of the 4 different fence. It was part of the AngloGold future, which we're going to get a part of that is part of our infrastructure. We will be able to mine it. And -- but that's still a little bit in the future. But Target can still have -- currently, I think it's a 6- or 7-year life, potentially can be a 10-year life going forward.

Jared Coetzer

executive
#26

Thanks, Peter. A question from Lebo Mofokeng, Truffle Asset Management. On uranium, is the FY '24 base sustainable? And is there potential to do more from a uranium perspective?

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#27

Yes. The only uranium plant we've got is the one at Moab. So we use all the sources that we potentially can put through there to get uranium for us. Unfortunately, we don't have uranium plants on any of the other things at the end of the operations. Yes, so what we have at the moment is that uranium is also flexible in terms of where you are or what your mine. Normally, it is very highly correlated to the grades. Because of the good grades we're currently mining at Moab, it was good uranium grades. So we -- but certainly, for the next number of years, it will be the same. And as we go into Saaiplaas, we'll be -- there's also uranium associated with that. Uranium became very significant because of the price increase that happened over the last number -- I think we bought Moab, it was $26 -- $23 a pound. Now it's sitting at close to $90.

Jared Coetzer

executive
#28

Thanks, Peter. And the last question from Teleki Teleki at [indiscernible] Capital. In terms of new business and expansion opportunities, what are the plans for Harmony in terms of geography? And what projects could we potentially look at, at higher gold prices, internal projects or existing projects?

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#29

Well, I think this slide actually shows it all. I've got now Slide 18 there, and people looking at that, which shows you that we can potentially be about 1.4 million ounce producer for a long period of time, we've got 2038. And I don't think many mining -- gold mining companies got this profile ahead of them. Yes, we have to develop surface. It's a surface project, but we own the ounces, and we can develop them. So it's not that we don't own it. And obviously, it's also on the back of Eva and Wafi-Golpu being built. That's the part at the top there. So what we're trying to say is that we have enough projects in front of us to be able to sustain Harmony for the current production levels. And obviously, we all -- but we will also be also looking at opportunities that potentially can come our way, like Eva that we've managed to buy. I think it's a fantastic project that came to us at the time. And I think we will be constantly looking for that. So the business team and Johannes van Heerden in the Brisbane office are constantly looking at opportunities for us to be able to. But I want to emphasis, whatever we buy going forward need to be better quality. Now current average all-in sustaining cost of Harmony for this year is $1,500 an ounce. There's not a lot of assets above $1,500 an ounce available for sale. And if there are, they're obviously usually expensive. So developing our own is probably the right way to go. And for that reason, our project capabilities and delivering projects are so keen for Harmony and -- which I think we are on the right track as far as that's concerned.

Jared Coetzer

executive
#30

All right. Peter, I think we've done.

Peter Steenkamp

executive
#31

Thank you. Thank you a lot for being most likely my last results presentation. I still vividly remember the one at a Board room there, the first one when I joined Harmony in 2016. It was a tough day. It's much better today.

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