Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 10, 2023

Deutsche Boerse Xetra DE Materials Construction Materials trading_statement 66 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Heidelberg Materials First Quarter 2023 results. [Operator Instructions] It is my pleasure, and I would now like to turn the conference over to Christoph Beumelburg. Please go ahead, sir.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#2

Thank you, operator. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone listening to the call for our Q1 call in 2023. We're excited to be here with René, our CEO -- our CFO; and Dominik, our CEO and the IR team. And without further ado, I hand over to Dominik for some prepared remarks. We have ample time to go into the Q&A session thereafter.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#3

Okay, Chris, thanks a lot, and hello to all of you. I hope you're all well. I think the start, if you go to the key messages, was a very good one for us. I think much better than prior year, even better than our record year in Q1 '21. So overall, the lights are on green. Our revenue, up 13%; RCO up almost EUR 170 million over prior year. So I think I would say [indiscernible] that are here with me, not too bad. This is driven by strong pricing, disciplined cost management and somewhat declining volumes. We gave you the reasons for that, but I'm sure some of you will come back with the questions on that. Anyway, what's important for us is the margin development that is clearly recovering after last year. We are moving now towards the levels of '21, which is our next midterm point where we want to get to. We are partly accelerating our sustainable growth, and we also -- not only organically but also through M&A. And that's very important for us. That's also why we have started now for the first time to focus as we have internally done for a while now also in our external communication on sustainable revenues. You will remember the discussion at the Capital Market Day, and I will come back to that. But our CEM business alone has already reached 37% of their revenues being sustainable, so a CO2 reduction of more than 30%. So we have a very strict barrier in there. I'm sure some of you may ask around that anyway. And then last but not least, we have -- we are very optimistic for the remainder of the year. So we have upgraded -- although it's early in the year, we've upgraded our guidance for the full year and now are confident to deliver EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 2.65 billion RCO from the previous EUR 2.35 billion to EUR 2.65 billion. If we go to the chart on Page 3, you see that revenue is strongly up 13%. I think that's a very strong performance. EBITDA is significantly up 50% in percentage terms; in actual terms, EUR 163 million. And then operating EBITDA margin, that's important, crawling back towards the 13.6%, which is the next midterm point that we want to reach from Q1 '21 significantly improved over prior year. And consequently, also the EBIT up [ EUR 770 million ] and even above the record year of '21. If you go to Page 4, you see some of the drivers. There is a hit on the currency side. So actually, if you look at the reported ones, I think that euro has strengthened. So some of the other currencies are clearly [ leading ]. We have a volume decline effect that's basically going across all business lines, a little bit more increment than in aggregate. And that's clearly driven, from our perspective, what we said earlier, by a sharp decline in housing in overall key mature markets, so Europe, U.S. and Australia. But it's very much outbalanced, to a large extent, not to all extent, otherwise, this would not be negative, both in terms of commercial, I would rather say, industrial and then also infrastructure. Offices are maybe a little bit on the decline, or the industrial stuff [indiscernible] transformation is clearly on the right and also on the infrastructure side. So net-net, volumes are down. But you see the price over cost work very well. We have managed our costs very tightly, also helped by a little bit coming down energy costs but not only. And then obviously, also the pricing realization was again good. So all in all, I think a very satisfying profit bridge. If you then go to North America, we said this very openly last year we were not satisfied with our performance in North America. But this year, the team has even delivered above the good '21 performance. So we are clearly back in North America with [ skies only the limit ]. I think we have still more room for deliver result-wise, but strong performance in Q1 from the [indiscernible] on the back of very good volume development. I think that is really strong in North America and good momentum there. We have solid pricing. The momentum is there to additionally move the pricing in almost all business lines, in almost all markets, and order books are still healthy. So in that respect, we stay very positive North America. Remember, in North America, our big [ future ] plants come on stream right now, the one in Indiana, which obviously brings us an additional margin opportunity. Western and Southern Europe, I think the numbers speak for themselves, a strong performance on the top line. Then a very strong performance on the RCO line, much above the good Q1 '21. As you see, WSE is the only region where the margin sits in Q1 above even the strong margin in Q1 '21. So I think very strong performance from WSE. Overall, I think not much to say. I think the numbers speak for themselves. And this is, just to be clear, carried by our market in WSE. So this is another one-off with one market. This is carried by our market. So overall, a strong performance from WSE. Northern and Eastern Europe on Page 7, stabilizing on a high level, I would say, beating their strong guidance '21 and RCO level and clawing back on their margins, almost back to 3% RCO margin versus 3.6% from '21. The demand is lower in most of those countries. That's true for Northern Europe. It's true for most countries in Eastern Europe. But we are working hard on the cost, and we are also obviously working on the pricing. And the combination there also price over cost continues to work well. And that obviously then also leads to improved margins. APAC is coming back. Last year, we were disappointed with APAC. Some of the countries didn't -- not really come back after the COVID lockdown. But you see there is now although moderate speed turnaround, but I think there is a significant turnaround. As we always clearly improved on the back of a much better performance also in Australia. Indonesia are running well. I would say, China and India had still some significant upside potential. There, we cannot be satisfied. China is actually moving in the right direction again. So overall, I think the APAC, we have fairly high hopes that this will come back much better throughout the year. And the same is true also for Africa. You know that Africa had a tough end of last year already. Q4 was not even for Africa. Q1 was also not easy, but I think they have stabilized. Now a little bit currencies. Egypt and Ghana were heavy under pressure. They have stabilized a little bit on a lower level. So overall, we are optimistic for the remainder of the year in Africa, more optimistic than we were probably at the end of last year. So the emerging markets, we see clearly light at the end of the tunnel. In that respect, the train is moving in the right direction. Yes. And then very importantly, as you know, for us, to be the global leader on sustainability in heavy building materials. SBTi has validated our ambitious target to be in line with the 1.5-degree target from Paris. I think that's good, and that is on the back, obviously, also of our very ambitious road map that is not carried by [ wish-and-hopes ] projects only but actions. So the start-up dates coming closer: in Brevik, next year; Lengfurt, the CCU project that we've communicated, in '25; Edmonton, we've made the communication, in '26; and then Padeswood in the U.K. in '28. So you see year-over-year, we are really pushing a step change in terms of decarbonization of the industry. So in that respect, we are well on track. And the same is true for circular. We've made a couple of acquisitions in circular in the U.S., in U.K. and also in -- lately in Germany. And we are very happy with the progress there. Also organically, I think we did really momentum on the recycling discussion. And the same is then obviously true for SEFA, but if you wish to say so also some sort of a recycling and decarbonization at the same time. That's also why these go hand in hand because they basically recycle dry ash and [indiscernible] ash and use it again in fresh concrete. So I think we have some very interesting acquisition, I think, a little bit underestimated by the capital markets at this point. But let's say we will prove you that this will be a great addition to the group. And then last but not least, a very interesting project in Europe in our hometown in Heidelberg, Europe's largest 3D printed buildings. I tell you, this is an exciting endeavor, and this will be more -- there will be more to come. This will be something that we can clearly build on. Let me go to Page 11. On the SEFA discussion, we communicated in most of those details. So I won't go into all corners of this here. Clearly, for us, it will reduce our carbon footprint overall in North America. I think that's significant because the materials decarbonize. And it will be a significant help also for the supply chain of -- the value chain of cement and concrete to decarbonize because you know that they are supplying 800 concrete plants, 8-0-0 concrete plants in the U.S., and there is more potential going forward. So in that respect, I think, a great platform to make a step change not only for Heidelberg Materials in North America but also for the industry in North America. And you remember, we don't want to only work within our own company. We also want to drive the value chain to decarbonize. That's the purpose here. That was always a discussion around [ command ] [indiscernible] and other things. So in that respect, I think we are well on track. Portfolio optimization, Page 12, sometimes, it still gets a little bit unnoted, very heavy movement in our portfolio. As you see here, if you wish to say so, a little bit of move towards the West, strengthening of the U.S., strengthening of Europe and also parts of Africa. And then maybe going a little more on the East side of the globe, starting with the latest divestment also from our Georgia joint venture. So in that respect, I think portfolio optimization continues, absolutely in line with our rigid financial metrics that we've set because remember, we don't do this just to do a portfolio reorganization. We do this to further grow and to further optimize our financial performance. And then last but not least, the upgraded guidance where the RCO has now moved to EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 2.65 billion. The risk remains unchanged. And again, clear message from our side, this is early in the year. It's a small quarter. But for us, the lights are on green. So in that respect, we look very optimistic into the next 3 quarters of the year. That's it from my side. I would say, let's go to the questions. We're looking forward to your questions.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#4

Absolutely, we can start the Q&A now.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions]

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#6

First question is from Elodie Rall from JPMorgan.

Elodie Rall

analyst
#7

So I'll start with your guidance. So you have upgraded it, but obviously, you haven't upgraded the top end of the guidance of [indiscernible] range. But if we look at Q1 trends and assume a continuation of these trends given the comps, I think, clearly, and given the seasonality, we would be expecting the top end of the guidance to be upgraded as well. So my question is, why didn't you upgrade that top end of the range? Is it because you expect pricing to decrease from here or cost to increase? So that's my first question on guidance. And second, as well on guidance as well, you expect like-for-like revenue growth for the year. But we started with 13% in Q1 [ to come to get ] easy on volumes, harder on pricing. But overall, what kind of like-for-like growth do you expect for '23?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#8

Maybe Elodie -- thanks for your questions, first of all, I think they're not surprising. I think your analysis, I'm not pushing back on that. I think you're right. The trend continues, you can exactly make that point, which I don't [ just ] back on. However, as I said, it's early in the year. I think the year is long. So we ask for your understanding that we are under the company. We have paid for actions. I think we've [ achieved ] most of the stuff that we've promised. So in that respect, that's what we're trying to continue to do. Even from our side, we do not expect a massive change in gears. Especially, we don't expect any reduction in pricing. That's clearly not baked into any of our discussions. That's not what we see. So in that respect, we will continue to factor the right value for our products. We are going against a decline in demand. That has been made confirmed. And that's why we -- also one of the unknowns, so we don't know exactly, but it's a market-by-market question. I think I [ foresee ] a little bit by area how the volume demand looks. And then on the cost side, I think things are improving on the energy side, continue to improve. It sits always at the current level, and fixed cost management will become a key focus topic going forward because there is further inflation. René, anything to add on the revenue side, maybe?

René Aldach

executive
#9

Yes. On the revenue side, Elodie, we have realized in Q1 13% up, but it's a slow quarter, small absolute number than the percentage increase. It's always easy to achieve. So we stick to what we said, and as Dominik said, the year's long, which you can expect when we come out with our Q2 numbers, we will see if we need to change something on our guidance or not.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#10

Yes, but I agree with you, Elodie, where your analysis is right. This is probably a very strong performance on the top line in Q1. I agree with you.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#11

Thanks, Elodie. Next question comes from Paul Roger from BNP Exane Paribas.

Paul Roger

analyst
#12

Maybe I can do the first one. Just trying to ask to be a little bit more specific on price costs. I mean, clearly, we saw a very strong spread in Q1, almost EUR 250 million. As you go through 2023, costs fee or the base becomes tougher for pricing. So what's your view on how that will evolve throughout the rest of the year? And I guess I'm really trying to understand that, but Q1 was a bit of a peak when it comes to the [ spread ]. So that's the first question. And the second question is on carbon capture. I mean you've clearly shown on Slide 10, this is not all talk. You've obviously got schemes out going ahead. I was just wondering if there's potential to capture more than 10 million tonnes by 2030 or whether that target already assumed that all that projects we would go ahead.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#13

Okay. Thanks, Paul, for your questions. Interesting. I think on the price over cost, let's wait, you know how price over cost works. You have to realize the price, and you heard my earlier remarks on Elodie's question. We are confident on the pricing. And then the cost is always variable costs and fixed costs. I think -- and that's why I also said, I think last year was very much a variable cost game. I think the variable cost game and the energy stabilized a little bit more. We are a little bit getting more into stabilized water, but maybe René can comment on that a little bit. And fixed cost management will become key especially if volumes decline. I think that's clear. So the shift within this price over cost will shift between variable cost and fixed cost a little bit in our management focus, but the top line will be -- continue to be defended. Now are we going to see another 20% price increase? No, I don't think that's realistic, and I'm also being very transparent with you. But I think there are markets where we still have pricing upside. For me, exactly in North America, very clear pricing upside in North America, especially in aggregates. And the same, I would say, is partly true for our other markets like Australia. And as I said, in emerging markets, we have to watch market by market. There, the picture looks different. And then we'll need to see how it will work out in Europe, but you won't see another 20% price increase in Europe in the short term, but we [ don't know ] what I expect. It's my personal view if you ask me specifically around that. And then on carbon capture, let's do one step after the other. We have paid for delivery, not for announcements. So I think in that respect, our ambition is high. But first of all, we need to be very clear, and you need to understand and trust into the -- those announcements a couple of years back to say we want to capture 10 million tonnes. I know -- I remember very well that moment we said that I will [indiscernible] what are we going to do. And now we can't run fast enough before even the first project is online. So let us get a [ very big ] online. We will be the first one globally that will prove this can be done on large scale. And then we have all the know-how, the experience, the data points in how to be able to accelerate. And I think that's the message, and then the sky will be the limit.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#14

Thanks, Paul. Next question comes from Luis Prieto from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Luis Prieto

analyst
#15

I had a couple of questions very briefly. The first one is that you seem to have stopped providing volume detail like some of your competitors. But could you give us an idea of what the actual volume and price performance would have been in the quarter at group at European levels? I'm particularly curious on that volume front. And the second question is regarding -- and apologies for completely changing the subject here. But regarding working capital, we saw a tough year for the industry in '22. What could we expect for this year? Have you seen any major damage in Q1? And what could you expect for the full year?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#16

Okay. Let me take the first one. And then René will take the second one, Luis. So as I said, I think on the volume, it's not too -- it's more a matter of how we steer the company internally. We also want to evolve externally. That means that the only reason why we change. Our [indiscernible] share is opening really well. We had a vivid discussion around this internally what we do here. But also with our clear focus on sustainability, we have Nicola on board. And we really want to make sure we've communicated in the capital markets that we want to go for sustainable revenues, very strict hurdle rates on [ 30% ] reduction in CO2. So I think we've set very high bars for that. And we feel now very confident that we are delivering against that bar and that we can also be very transparent with you around that delivery. That's why we decided to switch the focus from pure straight-out volumes because that doesn't say much. For us, the [ betterment ] of the future is both for our customers and for our financial performance in the acceleration of sustainable products. And that's why we want to also externally put the focus on the sustainable product development and progress and that we switch gear to the 37% sustainable revenues. On the volume itself, single-digit percentage declines on sales volumes on average. So I think nothing dramatic, but with a deeper decline in Western and Southern Europe, that's very low double digits. That gives you a little bit, I think, a range and a significant increase in North America. So I think that's a little bit the picture, Luis, that gives you a good idea about the volume.

René Aldach

executive
#17

Luis, in terms of working capital, as you rightly pointed out, the industry had a tough year last year. Obviously, there was a capital outflow, and we've seen our numbers. This year, it's very clear there is no further cash outflow [ from ] our working capital. I imagine it's very tight. And in Q1, we have already seen this, obviously, the industry is [ they want the capital outflow to be ] clear. But that number is typically more than we had last year in Q1. So last year, end of last year, [indiscernible] cash outflow of EUR 800 million. Do we want this obviously above? No. Do we want to recover, hopefully, a few hundred million? Yes. Right now, the trend is good, but let's see that for sure, no further outflow, rather cash inflow.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#18

The next one comes from Brijesh Siya from HSBC.

Brijesh Siya

analyst
#19

So a couple from me as well. So starting with -- on buyback, you haven't announced anything yet, and I understand there's EUR 300 million left, too. So if you could comment or update on that when it's coming. And then the second one is on the SEFA acquisition in U.S., the fly ash one. My understanding is that probably fly ash is not going to be there forever given the power plants that are coming to an end on the coal-fired one. So what is the rationale behind getting that? Is that because they have certain resource in place which you want to utilize? Or what's the rationale going forward for that?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#20

Brijesh, I think -- thank you very much for your clearly -- especially for your second question. I think that would be an interesting one. On the first one, René can also comment. Buyback, we've communicated that. We want the one [indiscernible] time until September. There is no final decision made on the timing yet. So I think there's not much more to say on that. On the SEFA, it's interesting exactly that's how internally the discussion started because all coal-fired power plants come to an end, so why do you buy into a reducing market? So there is trillions of tonnes globally on [indiscernible] ash. Quite frankly, [indiscernible] I also didn't know for a couple of years back. So basically, all fly ash that was not used in the past but basically we put into dumps. And half of the U.S. sits only in [indiscernible] of all size. By the way, not only the U.S. but also parts of Europe. We are always [indiscernible] via 4 plants dump their material, and that becomes more and more an environmental problem. Why? Because it potentially pollutes groundwater. So there are more and more rigid legislation coming to force the energy companies to pull this out of the ground. And obviously, they want to commercialize this, and that is exactly the idea of SEFA. So they have basically teamed up with a couple of the larger power plant producers in the U.S. and basically develop equipment and the technology to recycle that [indiscernible] ash and basically use it within the standard in the concrete -- fresh concrete production and a fully decarbonized product. And that's -- I don't have to say more than that. That's the magic behind SEFA.

Brijesh Siya

analyst
#21

Understood. And just a quick follow-up on that. So does that require any more chemical addition when you kind of extract from ground and try to use it in concrete -- fresh concrete. I mean my question is whether that does have the same characteristics compared to a fresh from a coal-fired power plant.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#22

Nothing is exactly the same, but there is not a massive difference between -- ash and ash is very different. Every coal-fired power plant in the end, a different ash, whether it's fresh or coal-made. So you always have to check a little bit there. So there is always optimization that you need to do, but it's not like we suddenly need something completely different [indiscernible] we are already using in other parts of the world where we buy it and not pollute ourselves like in [indiscernible] from the ash to small volumes. So it's not like we don't have any experience how to use [indiscernible] ash. There is nothing -- there is experience in how to do this. And it's nothing negative in terms of other additions you have to do in order to become a fresh concrete product.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#23

Next question is from Yuri Serov from Redburn.

Yuri Serov

analyst
#24

Two questions, I'll ask them one by one. The first one -- and I'm sorry it's going to sound a bit [indiscernible], but on prices, you say that don't see prices falling anywhere. But recently, there was a data point from the U.K. showing that in March -- it's from the ONS. I don't know how reflective it is from your prices, but nonetheless, for the full market and ensure that prices in cement in March actually fell month by month -- month-on-month by a fairly sizable amount. So would -- are you truly not seeing any price declines? Are you -- and we're sitting in May now, so it's quarter 2. I mean what is going on around the world? Can you just give us an overview, please?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#25

Yes. Yuri, I can only repeat what I said before. We don't see on a broad level of pricing coming down. And the very big example in the U.K., you have to be very careful. There is cement, and then we are a deep [indiscernible] provider. So I think there is always -- the question for us is [indiscernible] in the end. Careful with that. I think the statistics -- I know everybody is watching this closely. As I said in WSE, I don't see significant pricing upsides. That's what I said. And that means in pockets, you can still improve your pricing, but in other pockets, it may come back here and there, but that's not on a broad level of what we see, and that's also not what we expect from our perspective. So let's wait and see how this -- but there's nothing to add to what I said before.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#26

You had a second question, Yuri?

Yuri Serov

analyst
#27

Yes. Second question is actually not concerning -- well, not immediately concerning Q1. I'm curious. I mean can you please give us some better idea as to the schedule of your launch in the U.S.? What exactly your new plant coming on? And when will you finish the optimization of the plant around it? And similarly, it's further away, but I'm curious about the same thing in France when your projects there are finishing.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#28

You're curious about what?

Yuri Serov

analyst
#29

Your project in France also.

René Aldach

executive
#30

[ I think he ] has a couple questions on...

Dominik von Achten

executive
#31

Yuri, you cut off or -- can you...

Yuri Serov

analyst
#32

Can you hear me now?

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#33

We're good. So Yuri's just cut up.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#34

Let me take the next question, and I'll come back to when he's back.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#35

Okay. Next question is then from Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America.

Arnaud Lehmann

analyst
#36

Two questions. The first one is just coming back on, let's say, pricing. I'm sorry about that. Yes, can you hear me?

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#37

Operator?

Arnaud Lehmann

analyst
#38

Hello, can you hear me?

Operator

operator
#39

Yes. This is the operator, and we can hear the questioners. I'm hearing them. The participants, please bear with us. [Technical Difficulty]

Dominik von Achten

executive
#40

Okay, perfect. And we'll continue. Yuri, sorry for the technical glitch here. We'll continue with your question on [indiscernible]. Actually, the plant is running. It is producing the clinker already. It's producing also cement. So the start-up is actually going as planned, in that respect, moving in the right direction. And most of the optimization around it, you will be surprised, will be done by the end of this year. So we are very pushing ahead with this. We have all the trust that we get, and we push as hard as we can. Obviously, a plant start-up is always a plant product. So there will be a problem [ x, y, z ], but we have a very strong team in place to handle that. We are in constant contact with them. And overall, as I said, the plant start-up goes as planned, and we expect significant value being driven from that.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#41

Sorry, Yuri, for the technical glitch. I think we have Gregor now online, Gregor Kuglitsch From UBS, and the next one after him would be Arnaud Lehmann online from Bank of America. So Gregor?

Gregor Kuglitsch

analyst
#42

A couple of questions. So you mentioned, I think, 5 times roughly that you want to recover the '21 margins, which were, I think, nearly 21%. Last year, you did bit under 18%, and obviously, kind of arithmetically, it means there is very significant EBITDA upside. So I just wanted to understand your time line. What do you need to get there? Or is it sort of just the medium-term ambition? Then maybe sort of a quick question on the M&A slide. There's lots of deals in and out. Can you just give us a sense what sort of the net cost of all of this stuff is, so basically, the deals that you've done, the acquisitions minus the disposal for -- basically the cost and roughly on the EBITDA you get for that? And then sorry, if I can squeeze in the third. This 37%, can you just remind us how you actually define that? So what qualified as being sustainable? Is it -- what's the definition basically of that 37% in cements?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#43

Yes, let us take one after [ one ]. You are a little [indiscernible]. We'll go -- we'll take it from here. Let me do the margin one, and then René will do the M&A one, and then I'll come back to the sustainable revenue one. So on the margin one, very simple short answer, target remains to be there by '25. Let's take one step after the other. At the end of last year, everybody thought you're not -- you're never going to come back to that margin. Now I think we are climbing our way back up. And then how we space out on revenues and top line and bottom line is wait and see. But our target remains to get to the 21% at the latest by 2025. And then let's go through this year and see how much we can gain from last year, okay? Then René, maybe you want to work on...

René Aldach

executive
#44

Gregor, you have a nice question. So let me just come a little bit back, and I will sum up now. We [indiscernible] here. So [indiscernible] and the 2 German ones, SER and RWG, and then SEFA, so this obviously the exciting one, and then I will [indiscernible] to [ Georgia ] in the business. So if you book this [ 1, 2, 3, 4 ] or [ view ] together, the net M&A CapEx for this is roughly EUR 420 million. And the EBITDA contribution is roughly -- let me just -- we have problems. France is a [ EUR 50 million, EUR 60 million ] EBITDA contribution net, so we can make the multiple. It's a good multiple, and I think that's all the way down. And that is why we [ did the portfolio ]. We saw these -- really the prices [indiscernible], which will be a multiple [indiscernible]. So the ongoing [indiscernible] controlled.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#45

Right. EBITDA [indiscernible] oddly. I think that the [indiscernible] increase our EBITDA, not to just increase the revenue. It's based financial difficulty in those metrics that we've communicated and that also applies to those transactions. Then on your last question on the 37% revenue, I think, thank you for that question because I think a little bit difficult to grasp for all of you now what's happening here. I think we have been very transparent with you in our Capital Markets Day, and I think it's good that you will come back to that point because we have said we are not going to -- not every small reduction of CO2 leads to this sustainable revenue here. We sadly had a very strict hurdle rate. We need admit a new product that you offer. In this case, [indiscernible] needs to have at least a 30% reduced CO2 footprint against the global average of the GCCA. That's transparent figure, you can look at that. So the global average of the GCCA is the baseline [indiscernible]. And then from there, you need to reduce 30% of your CO2 footprint in order to reach the same as revenue. Now just as one interesting story around that. You know that the U.S. is decarbonizing fast, but the sustainable revenue hurdle that we have put in here does not even hit some of -- really most of the U.S. [indiscernible]. So in that respect, there is more opportunities to come. Very strict hurdle with the 30%, and even with that return of the 37% of the portfolio, which is, I think [indiscernible], the flip side of the book can -- we have to go low. We are globally leading on the kilograms per tonne of cement [indiscernible], and this is a reflection of this, which does come from [ heaven ]. This is hard work to remove one tonne after one tonne put beyond 30% more.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#46

Next question from Yassine Touahri from On Field.

Yassine Touahri

analyst
#47

So a couple of questions. I think, first, you mentioned that this acquisition in the U.S. in fly ash supply, it was potentially underestimated by the financial markets. What do you think that the financial market is missing? And then the second question is on volume. So you had a single-digit volume decline in Q1. Can you give us a bit of color on what do you see for the rest of the year? Have you seen any change in April and in early May? Do you feel that the Q1 was the bottom? Or do you feel we could see some sort of deterioration?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#48

Yassine, thanks a lot. Let me do the question on fly ash, and then maybe René and I jointly can give you a flavor on the volume development. Now on fly ash, I think the one question that we had earlier from Luis, I think, is the one piece. I think that more -- the perception fly ash becoming scarce and then the price becoming scarce is fresh fly ash, not on the fly ash. That's the first underestimation, the large volumes of available fly ash. And secondly, I think, mostly in our industry, you are a -- you find a lot of fly ash freighters and a very limited fly ash producers. And [ SEFA ] is not a trader. They are a producer of fly ash. So they also have developed a specific technology, how to reclaim and recycle the [ polished ] ash to be in the [indiscernible] of fresh concrete. And those 2 arguments are the ones that I think are not yet understood.

Yassine Touahri

analyst
#49

And when you look at the economics -- the only question I have is that I understand that [ recycling ] fly ash can be expensive. When you look at the economics of the business, are you excited?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#50

Yes.

René Aldach

executive
#51

Regarding your volume question, so we expect Q1 was down single-digit percentage. And if I look at my numbers here, last year, Q1, we haven't seen any drop in volumes. It started only -- started April 2022, so a little bit going down. So we don't think that the volumes will now increase, but the downward side where should come -- hopefully come to an end because in the last 9 months of 2022 were already going down. So the comparison base from Q4 to Q4 should be easier than the Q1. It's all speculation, I know, but it should not be as fast as we have seen.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#52

Yes, Yassine, I think from [Indiscernible], I think that's why also for me, this is not a volume to drive value for our shareholders, not by -- we don't drive the maximum value for our shareholders by maximizing volumes, to say it very clearly. And that's why we also don't want to send the wrong message into our analysts, too, to understand, hey, we are driving the value by making a difference on decarbonization, on circular and getting the right margins for those products. And that's how we drive the value going forward. The pure sales volume alone, I know, changes back in the [indiscernible] industry. Everybody was trying to chase a ton. This is not the game that the -- the biggest main driver for our company. And that's why volume, we will keep an eye on, but we don't get overly excited by XYZ, but the trend is what we may share with you now.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#53

Now we have Arnaud back in line, Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America. Sorry for the glitch.

Arnaud Lehmann

analyst
#54

No problem at all. Two questions, please. One is probably a follow-up on European cement prices. And I tried to keep things simple. I guess, the cost at the moment was strong. Energy was up. And therefore, prices went up. Now demand is down. Energy is down, and still you're optimistic to keep prices at the same level after the increase at the beginning of the year. I guess, my question is, what am I missing? Is CO2 marginal cost now the only driver or the main driver of pricing in Europe? That's my first question. And my second question is regarding potential U.S. listing. One of your competitors is making the case at having a U.S. primary listing will give them some operational commercial synergies and maybe also in terms of making future acquisitions, that there was meaningful upside from that. I guess, it raised a question of is there downside of being a German listed company operating in the U.S. when the U.S. is going to pro-America.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#55

Yes. Thanks, Arnaud. Let me start with the first one and then maybe René can also chip in on the dynamics on European cement pricing. Going back to a decade, I wouldn't push back on your assumption that you are having, but I think that has changed from our perspective. A, let's not underestimate the significant energy cost inflation the system has. I mean, I think this assumption that the energy costs are now low as before the prices in Ukraine, sorry, we have to do all our math, and I'm sure everybody needs to make their math because that's cash out of the door. Yes, the electricity prices are coming off their peaks, but the forwards in electricity in Europe are still between EUR 100 and EUR 150 per megawatt. It is still much elevated from the level of 30, 40, 50 megawatts that we saw before. And suddenly, you have to pay for it. And energy, you cannot say [indiscernible] next year, you have to pay now. And so I think that's the point. Then we have inflation on staff costs. That's also clear. You see all the wage increases that are coming. You have increases on services, you have scarcity on labor availability, all that drive for -- you heard my comment on the fixed cost. And then last but not least, CO2 absolutely with the price hovering around [ 90 ], and some of the players have already communicated being short, I think, well, that all needs to be paid by somebody. So that's why firstly, and that's only our assumption. That's not -- I cannot really speak for others. It's also not our [indiscernible] and it's also not our duty. Really for us, we want to drive value for our customers. And that's also why we push the point, we will invest into this industry, into this business, and we have a very compelling story to tell on decarbonization in circular. And we make the investments, but we also want to be paid for that. And also the last point, there will be differentiation in the market on the product side, and that will be also a driver why there is a wider price spread and also less of a broader decline that you assume. René, anything to add?

René Aldach

executive
#56

Nothing to add.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#57

Okay. And then on the U.S., I cannot comment [indiscernible]. We are a proud German and European company. And last year, [indiscernible] said, "Let's go West." Europe is going to die, and now the rest -- the crop comes already back. The currency is strengthening. Everybody -- so I think this comes and go. We are, again, focused on decarbonizing the industry, the fastest, being the global leader in circularity and making even breakup product out of on a 4.5 billion tonne product per year. I think the market is huge, and something to grab is huge. Why should we endeavor on XYZ? I think we can make this a very compelling story out of.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#58

Next question comes from Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley.

Cedar Ekblom

analyst
#59

Two questions. So the first one is on Brevik. We're about a year away, hopefully, from the assets being turned on. Have there been any delays in the [ curve forward ] that have come about with that asset? Because I know the history of the asset has been quite delayed, so I just want to check that we're still on time and on budget in terms of ramp-up. And then the second question is around how you approach your CO2 credit position in Europe. Because, obviously, we've had very good supply or pricing discipline from players in the market. And both companies point towards high CO2 prices has been a real motivating factor for our companies now seem to have got religion on value over volume. So I'd like to understand a little bit about how you approached it internally. When you have an asset that is potentially long credit, is there a decision taken to transfer those credits to an asset that might be short? Or do you actually require that those assets that are short credits are fully loaded with that cost of CO2 and how that might motivate the commercial approach? So just a little bit more on sort of the approach to credit within the organization. I know that you're a net long, but are you still buying credits in the market today? Just to understand more around that sort of value over volume discipline that has arise in the industry as a result of the credit situation.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#60

Maybe -- Cedar, thanks a lot for your question. And both René and I will answer. Let's start with your second point because on the CO2 for -- I think it's a good question that for me that has -- the metal has 2 sides. One is what you really do is the commercial approach. And for me, it is very clear. If I see somebody in our company who could subsidize, that's how I read this, just because it is gone long is that -- baking this into the [indiscernible]. I can do the discount of [indiscernible]. I should tell you, this is not how we take the commercial approach. Clear answer to your question for the orders. And then maybe when -- you describe the other side of the metal in terms of how we -- accounting pipeline.

René Aldach

executive
#61

[indiscernible] we can move the credit here to [indiscernible] them internally to countries, which we are short. It will be something long [indiscernible] we will obviously, as sufficient as you can imagine. And as Dominik said, based on reporting, the people have fully loaded costs, which [indiscernible] in terms of [indiscernible] coming in a few years, [indiscernible] the organization and still the lower cost [indiscernible].

Dominik von Achten

executive
#62

And Cedar, also, we have the discussion with our customers what is the CO2 certificate piece is there [indiscernible] invest into the transformation. So we also use that margin to finance the transformation that we have outlined to you. So I think in that respect, I think that's a little bit of the story around the CO2 side. And to your last question in that point, I think you asked about whether we are buying, only very opportunistically. If the price level is like a stone overnight, we jump into the market. But we don't see any need to buy. So -- and we're also not selling. So I think there is no trading going on, on a significant volume in either buying or selling. And then on [indiscernible], this is a massive undertaking globally, the first project. So everybody is holding their breath, watching. This is a very complex project set up because we have 3 dimensions [indiscernible]. We need to work hand in hand. So the project was disrupted, as you know, by COVID, by [indiscernible] Ukraine war. So I think, nevertheless, the project, I think, from our perspective, is doing okay. For a large project of this financial, we are not surprised by anything by any stretch of the imagination. Both in terms of timing and also in terms of budget, there are deviations, but nothing dramatic that gets us to loss sleep at night. This will come, this project, and we hold our rate of 24%. That's what we have communicated. So let's wait and see. But I tell you, this is magic happening.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#63

Thank you, Cedar. We have 4 more questions in the queue, and I think you need to wrap up after that. And the next one comes from Tobias Woerner from Stifel.

Tobias Woerner

analyst
#64

Yes. Two, plus a cheeky one, if I may. So in the EBITDA bridge, we see the volume effect of minus EUR 66 million. This compares to the previous quarter of minus EUR 98 million. Can you sort of interpret that move or that change? Should that continue going forward? Secondly, when -- you talked about fly ash, GGBS. And when I compare those 2 businesses with cement, if you look pari passu at those businesses, you assume the same price level. What sort of return profiles do they have? And do you feel comfortable that you can actually -- because as you said, you're a big GGBS producer in the U.K., in the Benelux. Can you actually expand this business going forward? And then just lastly, CO2 volumes falling. Should that mean that your life of the bank is extending? And if so, by what?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#65

So maybe on the CO2, because as you said, positive with volume decline. There is potentially also an upside on the length of CO2 certificates. We're watching this very closely. But again, to get -- it cost me a minute or 2 because in the end, that helps going forward. But we are not going to subsidize the market short term for that. So I think there are always saturations. This is a complex system up and down. But -- so I think that's fine. Then on fly ash and GGBS, and then René will take the EBITDA question. On fly ash and GGBS, from our perspective, we are very happy with those businesses. They are absolutely fitting in our financial metrics very well. Growth opportunities in this market is not so easy. If you can buy and trade everywhere, but trading doesn't give you the trading margin. So the question is both potential business model, but also in terms of know-how, I think this is only very, very interesting if you have a producing elements because, by the way, also from the CO2 [indiscernible], the producing elements will give the CO2 and market share for the trading element. So I think that's another piece. And then again, we are a large group. If you have a technology somewhere in the group, it's our duty to apply this technology also to other parts of the group. In the past, if I was operating in the Southeast of North America, our group will be bigger than the Southeast of the U.S.

René Aldach

executive
#66

Tobias, regarding the volume, we have minus EUR 66 million in Q1, that is driven by Europe. There's 2 areas to change in positive in volume. So one was to run. And as I said, [indiscernible] No, but because of how [Indiscernible]. As I said, H2 should be a little bit better because the comparison there will be better. So that's what we see, that we have [indiscernible] positive, but we hope to stop or to reduce the negative trend.

Tobias Woerner

analyst
#67

Could I just follow up on the return profile? Are there the other 2 better than cement? That's the question.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#68

They're not worse.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#69

Thanks, Tobias, for your questions. The next question comes from Yves Bromehead from Soc Gen.

Yves Brian Bromehead

analyst
#70

I'll be quick. My first one is on Turkey. Just want to get your view post the earthquake, what's the potential? Has the construction potential actually already sort of started already as the construction season is underway? And also, any color on the impact that could have on the export market and potentially U.S. pricing? That's my first question. And then my second one is, could you remind us what's the group exposure to the nonresidential markets? And can you actually sort of split that between the sort of high rise, the office type of buildings versus the other type of buildings?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#71

Yves, I think Ozan is here in the room. He can probably tell you better about it. So you should call him later and ask him about the Turkey. Let me give you my perspective on this. First of all, it is a massive human tragedy. So -- and we are not here to profit from the tragedy. I think let me say that we [ mark ] first. If you see the pictures, if you hear what we hear from Turkey, this is dramatic in terms of short term and also midterm consequences. So in that respect, before we think about business, I think that's the first very important point. I think midterm and also short term, you may be right. There is a one effect coming obviously in the health to rebuild that part of Turkey, but it's overlay right now with the presidential elections coming up. So there is a lot of moving parts in terms of Turkish development going forward. They are fighting the massive inflation, currency fluctuations. So the whole situation in Turkey is for now very well management of our Turkish team. You know that we have one Board member even coming from Turkey. So I think [indiscernible] So overall, the situation is very much under control, very well managed. But the volatility in Turkey, giving all those data points is going to continue to remain high. I'm looking a bit to Ozan. Do you have anything to add?

Ozan Kacar

executive
#72

[Indiscernible]

Dominik von Achten

executive
#73

Okay. So Ozan is fine with that. Then on the group exposure, it is normally 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 for us. We are obviously shifting. We saw it coming. We are shifting more towards the infrastructure and commercial/industrial and reducing the exposure to housing. And for the time being, we don't publish any further breakdowns.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#74

Okay. Next question is from Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq from CIC.

Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq

analyst
#75

I have 2 questions -- 2 technical questions. So first one is -- can you [indiscernible] enforce probably after 2026. How will be -- how will they be calculated, plant by plant or globally? That's an important question given some efficient plants in Morocco, Turkey and Egypt, which could be a very big danger for European players. And second issue, you have a lot of CCUS projects in majority CCUS, only 1 in CTU. Why is this? Is that due to technical issues?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#76

Jean-Christophe, thank you very much. First of all, I've not taken very short [indiscernible] 2026. The important piece is that European position that we started [indiscernible]. The [indiscernible] are not out yet. I think there are still negotiations going on. How we exactly do it in terms of the point that we are trying to [indiscernible], so I'm not going to start to speculate and [Indiscernible] the important point is the proposition [indiscernible] need to defect the transformation efforts in Europe and, of course, subsidize others on the -- outside of Europe. So I think that's -- we are a global company, but we need to obviously make sure that, at some point, we have a better playing field. That's all [Indiscernible]. CCUS, a quick answer, the technology is not significantly different, but it's a different value on supply chain. I think that's one piece. And then secondly, the economics, obviously, are also different. CCS, you get full credit as a selling company for what you do with carbon capture and storage because it's permanently [ done ]. That's definition in the legislation when it comes to [indiscernible] regime. And [indiscernible] is not permanently bound necessarily. And currently, the politicians in Europe are trying to get their arms around how are they working with this decision, the [indiscernible] goes to synthetic fuels, all of those discussions. So in that respect, in many of the EU projects, the economics doesn't work, and this one does. That's why we did it. I think that's a good case from our perspective, but that's an art and [ design ] at the same time to bring this to the starting point. This project is behind the scenes has taken years to get there. Also to get your arms around the economics, but we're [indiscernible] there, and now we are ready to execute on it. And then, again, learn data point by data points, how to improve because one thing we see already with all of these projects coming closer to the starting point, the learning curve is fast.

Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq

analyst
#77

Will you receive subsidies from the EU?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#78

For EU, yes, we get EUR 15 million subsidy from the German government. One part on that project. So that -- yes, there is a subsidy from the German government.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#79

So let's wrap it up with Yuri [indiscernible] and I think the question on mix had been unanswered.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#80

Yuri, I answered your question on this in. I think the mix one, we said we are currently already producing for cement. The current plan is a ramp-up, and we are optimizing the network during this year. That's the message.

Yuri Serov

analyst
#81

Well, can I finish asking my question, please?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#82

Sure. Go ahead.

Yuri Serov

analyst
#83

Yes. So you answered on [ Michail ], when you say optimizing this year, do you mean that the capacity that you're planning to take out will be completed by the end of the year only, not immediately, right?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#84

No, no. There's a phasing plan, a detailed phasing plan in terms of which capacity will come out, which capacity will come on. And obviously, this will also depend on the market development. But we had some room to [indiscernible]. And for us, this may not be a s***** idea because we are an importer into the U.S., as you know. And typically local production is more attractive than imports. So in that respect, there is also some room for optimization around how we play that, taking out capacity versus bringing up the new capacity. When it comes to the net-net [indiscernible] effect, you have to [indiscernible] your question.

Yuri Serov

analyst
#85

Yes, I understand. But my question had the second part, which you couldn't hear, which was, can you tell us also what the plan is for your French project? When that one will come onboard?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#86

You're talking about [indiscernible]?

Yuri Serov

analyst
#87

Yes.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#88

[indiscernible], the construction has started. The project is moving, but I'm not -- there's no change from the original discussion. I think it's more 2025 that, that will come. But let's do one step after the other now. The project is in construction. I think that's important. It's going to come. And then we will need to see how things progress. We'll keep you updated on this, okay?

Yuri Serov

analyst
#89

But the preliminary plan is 2025.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#90

Yes.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#91

Okay. So I think we're about to wrap up. Any final comments, Dominik?

Dominik von Achten

executive
#92

No.I think, then, thanks for your participation. From our perspective, a very satisfying start, and I think we will be optimistic for the remainder of the year.

Christoph Beumelburg

executive
#93

Thanks for listening. Maybe just to let you know, we are preparing for the AGM tomorrow, taking place live and in color again after 3 years of [indiscernible]. And after 3 years, we're proposing a dividend increase tomorrow from EUR 40 to EUR 60 per share or for a change of the legal name of HeidelbergCement AG to Heidelberg Materials AG that [indiscernible]. So exciting, and we are up to some conferences. The next one would be the [indiscernible] conference for Morgan Stanley conference, the Deutsche one and then the week after May 23, the JPMorgan conference in London. Looking forward to seeing you all there. Thanks for listening. Bye-bye.

Dominik von Achten

executive
#94

Thank you, everyone. Bye-bye.

Operator

operator
#95

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephones. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

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