Helia Group Limited (HLI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the full year 2021 earnings results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Paul O’Sullivan. Thank you, please go ahead.

Hello, and welcome to the 2021 full year financial results briefing for Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia. I'm Paul O’Sullivan, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, we will start with a presentation from our CEO, Pauline Blight-Johnston, who'll provide an overview of the results. Our CFO, Michael Cant, will go into more detail on the financials and Pauline will then wrap up with a summary. After the presentations, we will open up for questions from investors and analysts. I will now hand over to Pauline.

Thanks, Paul, and good morning, everyone. It's good to be here with you all as we reported strong and pleasing results for the 2021 year, with underlying net profit after tax of $238 million and underlying return on equity of 16.3%, and to provide this morning an update on our strategic delivery, which is driving business momentum as we move into 2022. Genworth's vision is to be the leading choice for flexible home ownership solutions. To achieve this, 12 months ago, we set out a strategy to enhance our core LMI business, evolve our LMI offering to adapt to the changing needs of a new generation of homebuyers and extend our capabilities to develop new and complementary pathways to homeownership. One year later, I'm pleased to report the business has demonstrated good progress across each of these dimensions. In 2021, we enhanced the efficiency and competitiveness of our existing LMI product, delivering strong financial outcomes, increased customer satisfaction and the beginnings of a differentiated customer proposition. We completed in-depth borrower research to better understand the emotional journey of buying a home. And based on this, have developed a pipeline of LMI product evolution to ensure it remains relevant to the changing needs and expectations of Australian homebuyers. In December, we launched the first of these, our family assistance product, which provides a vehicle for family members wishing to help aspiring homeowners and stick to the growing need for homebuyers to seek support from the banks of mom and dad. In addition, we've taken the first step to extend our edge of homeownership solutions by acquiring a minority interest in a start-up fintech OSQO, a business that we'll be partnering with as we set to bring to market an innovative new deposit as funding solutions. In tandem with strategic momentum, the business has continued to just deliver operationally. In particular, after an extensive tender process, Genworth was selected to extend its contract as the exclusive provider of LMI to Commonwealth Bank. The project to separate from Genworth Financial, Inc., our former 52% shareholder, is on track to deliver on time and on budget, with wide-ranging improvements to the base infrastructure of our business. And very pleasingly, we have resumed productive capital management activities. That we've delivered all of this in the environment of COVID and the distributive working environment makes me incredibly proud of the talent, commitment and sheer hard work of our people. I'd like to take this opportunity to publicly thank each and every one of them, without whom I would not be delivering these great results today. So now let's turn to Slide 5 for the overview of the results. On Slide 5, you can see, for the full year 2021, Genworth delivered a strong underlying net profit after tax, or NPAT, of $238 million, driven by an unusually favorable claims environment, characterized by high dwelling value price growth, falling delinquencies and low numbers of mortgages in possession. Statutory NPAT was $193 million, which includes the impact of unrealized investment losses from rise in government bond rates and for GFI separation costs. Key contributors to the strong results were an exceptional claims environment, resulting in net claims incurred of negative $8.3 million for the year and an unusually high net earned premiums as a result of increased cancellations fueled by [indiscernible]. Net premium volume showed strong growth when adjusted for the 2020 loss of the NAB contract. This is underpinned by rise in dwelling values and low interest rates attracting first homebuyers and upgraders to the market. In this environment, Genworth's lender customers as a whole achieved above system growth. Net earned premium increased 18.8% to $371 million, driven by growth in gross written premium over recent years and increased policy cancellations due to elevated borrower refinancing. Headline new insurance written in 2021 decreased 4.4% to $30.2 billion, but rose 8.6% when adjusted for the loss of the NAB contract. Gross written premium decreased 2.2% to $550 million, but rose 9% when similarly adjusted. Importantly, during the year, Genworth retained all lender customers up for renewal, won a new exclusive customer relationship and was selected as the exclusive provider of LMI to CBA for a further 3-year period. Key to delivering these customer outcomes has been the execution of our strategy to enhance our LMI offering and evolve it over time. The unexpectedly low claims environment over the year has also resulted in a material strengthening the company's financial position, with a PCA coverage ratio on a Level 2 basis rising to 2.03x. This strong capital position and improved earnings have led to the Board's decision during the second half of the year to resume active capital management. Further to announcing a $100 million on-market buyback in November, the Board is pleased to declare today a total 2021 second half fully franked dividend of $0.24 per share, comprised of a $0.12 per share ordinary dividend and a $0.12 per share special dividend. Now let's turn to Slide 6 for an update on the progress of name delivering our strategic priorities. 2021 saw real momentum build on executing our Enhance, Evolve and Extend strategy, with the benefits of this beginning to flow through to our lender-customer relationships. In a competitive market, we're pleased to retain all lender-customer contracts up for renewal, including really exciting tenders in market during the year. This represents a change in momentum for the business. achieved as a result of improved service delivery and product innovation beginning to create a differentiated LMI proposition. In December, we launched a new Family Assistance product following on from the 2020 launch of the monthly premium product, and we've also continued to work on both borrower and broker engagement. Both of these recent product innovations extend the pool of borrowers we and our lender customers are able to help into home. The Family Assistance product launched in 2021 provides a vehicle for family members wishing to help aspiring homebuyers achieve their dream, recognizing the growing market importance of the bank of mom and dad. Launched in December, we're pleased it's already been taken up by 12 lender customers and have attracted strong interest from mortgage brokers increasingly looking for avenues to help Australian into their first home. Today, we're also excited to announce a new partnership with OSQO. OSQO is an early-stage fintech in which Genworth has acquired a minority stake to codevelop a shared equity deposit gap funding product. Our intent is to work with OSQO to provide an alternative pathway to home ownership to sit alongside our existing LMI solution, recognizing that alternative solutions may resonate better with some sections of the Australian home-buying community. Whilst it remains early days in delivering our Enhance, Evolve and Extend strategy, we are pleased to see that it's already created improved lender-customer relationships and creating differentiation in Genworth's customer proposition. Now move to Slide 7, which will show our financial progress. 2021 has seen a strong recovery from the business following the economic challenges of COVID and an improvement in our key financial performance measures even when compared with our pre-COVID outcomes. The business has maintained a strong balance sheet through the period of economic uncertainty, allowing it to now resume active capital management activities to deliver improved returns for our shareholders. In that regard, the Board is pleased to announce today both ordinary and special dividends in addition to the share buybacks that was announced and partially executed in late last year, following approval from APRA for a reduction in the company's capital base. This brings the total value of announced capital management activities in respect of the 2021 year to $219 million. The improving business momentum can also be seen in our customer results, which I'll turn to on Slide 8. The company has the leading share of the LMI market by a significant margin, and we're proud of our Net Promoter Score of plus 75, extraordinary number, up from plus 49 a year ago. In January, following a competitive tender, we're delighted to announce the continuation of our more than 50-year relationship with CBA as an exclusive LMI provider through to December 2025. The new contract will involve Genworth insuring between 50% and 70% of CBA high LVR loans, with the current expectation that volumes will commence towards the end of that range. The contract is both financially and strategically important to Genworth and delivered additional value to CBA customers and the bank and expected above total rate of return for Genworth shareholders. We are very much looking forward to deepening and strengthening our existing partnership with CBA as we work together to help Australians enjoy the financial and emotional benefits of homeownership. Moving now to the progress we've made in our separation program on Slide 9. I'm very pleased to report that after an extraordinary progress of our business, the separation of the company from our former majority shareholder, Genworth Financial, Inc., or GFI, is nearing completion. The program is running on time and within the original budget, with the full transition of GFI services due to complete in the first quarter of this year. Our employees have worked hardly to deliver a challenging program of system transitions in a short time frame despite the challenges presented by COVID-19. We've also taken the opportunity to proactively take care of our position to improve aspects of our underlying IT systems and infrastructure, and we'll be undertaking additional optimization activities on the finance and human resource systems through to the third quarter of the year. Significant groundwork has been made on the rebranding of the business, and it's anticipated that shareholders will be asked to approve the new company name in the course of 2022. Now let's move to capital management on Slide 10. In November 2021, Genworth announced a $100 million on-market buyback to improve capital efficiency and return on equity to shareholders. As at the end of the year, when we entered our blackout period and required to [ poll ] share purchases, $2.4 million of this buyback have been executed. Our intention is to resume the buyback following today's full year 2021 results announcement. In addition, the Board is pleased to announce today a second half fully franked ordinary dividend of $0.12 per share, a level expected to be sustainable into the future, following a smaller unfranked interim dividend of $0.05 per share announced in the first half. In addition, the Board has declared a fully franked special dividend of $0.12 per share. Both are payable on the 25th of March this year to shareholders of record as at the 11th of March. As I mentioned before, the combination of these capital management activities when fully executed will return a total of $219 million of capital to shareholders. And if was executed as at the 31st of December on a pro forma basis would have resulted in a PCA ratio of 1.84x. Capital generation from our in-force book continues to support our new business growth and we're looking to continue to return capital to shareholders in the most efficient way possible as we seek to move closer to the Board's private PCA range of 1.32 to 1.44x over the coming periods now that some of the COVID uncertainties are playing through. And on that note, I will now welcome Michael Cant in his first Genworth results briefing and hand over to talk to him about the -- let him talk about the 2021 financial results in more detail.

Thank you, Pauline, and welcome to everybody on the call, and thank you very much for joining us today. I'm going to start on Slide 12 with a recap on the economic environment. Despite starting the year with major economic concerns surrounding the impact of COVID, 2021 turned out to be a particularly positive environment for our business. Residential property prices were extremely strong with an average 26% growth across the nation. The rise in house prices was seen across all capital cities and regional areas. Australia also experienced low unemployment levels, with a headline rate at the end of the year of 4.2%. The other big positive factor has been historically low interest rates. Not only have interest rates played a role in the rising house prices, but also had a positive impact on the level of delinquencies. And rate competition amongst lenders has driven an unprecedented volume of refinancing as investors have moved to fixed rate mortgages or more competitive variable rates. If you can turn to Slide 13, I'll walk through the income statement. As Pauline has mentioned, 2021 saw a particularly strong business performance, underpinned by an exceptionally large year on claims incurred. Let's take a look at some of the main items. Gross written premium was down 2.2%, impacted by the NAB contract loss in late 2020. The underlying growth, excluding NAB, was 9.8%, reflecting a buoyant home lending market. And top line GWP remains at very high levels by historical standards. Net earned premium grew by 18.8% as a result of the strong written premium in recent years combined with a significant jump in policy cancellations arising from high levels of mortgage refinancing. As noted above, the claims outcome for the year was exceptional. Total net claims incurred was negative $8.3 billion, within the guidance range of plus $5 million to minus $15 million. Separation costs for the year relating to the GFI separation program were $8.4 million and are tracking to remain within our initial guidance range of $15 million to $19 million for the program. Investment markets were volatile for the year, and the total investment income for the business was negative, mainly attributable to unrealized losses on the bond portfolio as a result of rising interest rates. If you can please now move to Slide 14, which has some more details on the top line of the business. Headline new insurance written was down 4.4%, primarily reflecting the loss of the NAB contract at the end of 2020. The half-on-half picture showed a 5% drop in new insurance written, half-on-half, reflecting the slowdown from record home lending volumes in the first half of the year. The movement in half year pattern in GWP largely reflected the same movements in the new insurance written. Net earned premium for 2021 was up significantly, reflecting high GWP volumes in 2020 and ''21 and a benefit from an unusually high levels of cancellation. As an indication of order of magnitude, earned premium released by cancellations was $75 million higher than in previous years. These tailings for net earned premium more than offset the 2021's earnings curve change, which lengthened the pattern of premium recognition with an impact on net earned premium of minus $38 million. I'd now like to turn to Slide 15, which looks at the net claims incurred. Net claims incurred were negative $8.3 million, that is, the claims incurred line made a positive contribution to the P&L. This outcome was driven by low claims paid and a reduction in reserves, reflecting an unexpectedly good economic environment in 2021, combined with appropriate reserving during the height of the COVID pandemic. Reserves for outstanding claims fell $60 million during the year due to a combination of low delinquencies and strong house price appreciation. Pleasingly, the portfolio of customers who were part of the deferral arrangements put in place by lenders have performed well throughout 2021. As you can see in the chart, paid claims and mortgages in possession continue to remain low. And this was a function of both the favorable economic environment and also the moratorium on foreclosures that leaders have implemented. As these moratoriums come to an end, we do expect that mortgages in possession and claims paid will increase and this has been anticipated in our reserves. Please now turn to Slide 16 for some more analysis on claims. The overall delinquency rate has fallen to 0.52%, with improvements across most parts of the portfolio. New delinquencies remained particularly subdued in the second half of the year, falling 30% in the last 6 months, reflecting strong borrower finances and a supportive government policy measure. The aggregate amount of delinquency cures remain broadly consistent with previous years, and aging of delinquencies was particularly low reflecting a positive impact from house price appreciation. Over the course of the full year, the impact of changes in the actuarial reserving basis were relatively minor. However, this was comprised of a strengthening of $30 million in first half and a release of $37 million in the second half. And these items can be seen in the adjustment line in the table on the slide. Moving now to Slide 17, which is a summary of our investment returns. Total investment returns for the year was a loss of $10.6 million, representing a return of minus 0.3%. Net interest income continued to be impacted by the low interest rate environment. However, the big driver of the overall investment income result was an unrealized losses of $55.8 million on the bond portfolio due to rising interest rates. While the rising interest rates hurt the P&L in the short term, there is a longer-term positive impact on the profitability of our business, given the long-term nature of our liabilities. And we're already starting to see this come through from higher running yields on the business. I'd now like to turn to the balance sheet, which is summarized on Slide 18. I I'll go through the investment assets and outstanding claims in more detail on the next couple of slides. But first, I wanted to comment briefly on a few other aspects of the balance sheet. Deferred acquisition costs of $88.5 million, an increase of $47 million over the year, reflecting the capitalization of new deferred acquisition costs post the write-off that was undertaken in 2019. Unearned premium over the year increased by $110 million, reflecting the strong volumes of gross written premium, partly offset by high cancellations. The changes to the earnings curve have also positively added to the unearned premium balance. Gearing on the balance sheet remains low, with the interest-bearing liabilities comprised of a $190 million 5-year floating rate note maturing in 2030. The investment portfolio is presented in more detail on Slide 19. The cash and investment portfolio rose to $3.7 billion at 31 December 2021, reflecting the strong financial results and premium inflows that significantly exceeded paid claims. There has been a modest increase in the proportion of funds invested in equities and corporate debt securities as we seek to improve the return profile of the investment portfolio while suitably balancing risk. The fixed interest assets backing the technical funds are duration matched. And while there is P&L volatility from movements in bond yields, this matching approach ensures that the interest rate changes do not adversely impact our solvency position. The fixed interest portfolio backing the shareholder funds has a relatively short duration of 1.9 years and is well positioned for a rising yield environment. I'd now like to turn to the insurance liabilities, which is summarized on Slide 20. The insurance liabilities have 2 major components: the outstanding claims liability and the premium liabilities. The outstanding claims liabilities, including a reserve for claims incurred but not reported, or IBNR, are held on the balance sheet. And any change to those liabilities directly goes through the P&L. The premium liabilities, by contrast, represent the liability for claims that may be incurred in future periods. And this is an off-balance sheet item that is an important input into the APRA capital requirements. The outstanding claims liability of $480 million reduced by $60 million over the year. This reduction in outstanding claims reserves was a function of both the low delinquencies and higher house price appreciation. The outstanding claims liability remains higher than the 2019 pre-COVID levels. However, this is predominantly attributable to a reserve methodology change in financial year 2020, which included $116 million of reserves for future re-delinquencies. During 2021, the premium liability fell by more than $200 million reflecting an improved outlook for future claims. The resulting total insurance liability, which includes both outstanding claims and the premium liability, is now largely in line with 2019 pre-COVID levels. I'd now like to turn briefly to the capital position, which is summarized on Slide 21. Our capital position remains strong. The regulatory capital base increased by $438 million over the year. The main driver of this higher regulatory capital base was the increase in retained profits driven by the strong financial result. The other significant factor was a sizable reduction in premium liabilities, as I outlined earlier, given the improved outlook for future claims. The APRA regulatory capital requirement has a number of different components, which is summarized in the table on the slide and which have not changed materially over the course of the year. The resulting PCA coverage ratio at 31 December is 2.03x. This ratio was before the completion of the $100 million on-market buyback and the payment of the final ordinary and special dividends, which on a pro forma basis would reduce the PCA coverage ratio to 1.84x. A key component of our regulatory capital requirements -- of our regulatory capital calculation is the $800 million offset we received from reinsurance. Slide 22 gives a brief overview of our reinsurance programs. Our reinsurance coverage is designed to deliver efficient economic capital while protecting the balance sheet in severe stress scenarios. The program is structured on an excess of loss basis, which Genworth retained the first $1.65 billion of paid claims. We've recently renewed the reinsurance program on broadly similar terms as in 2021, but with a slightly lower cost. Finally, can you turn to Slide 23, where I wanted to talk about the profitability by different book years and how this has changed over time. I know Pauline has spoken on occasions about the fact that the business we've written in recent years is more profitable than some of the older cohorts, and I wanted to share some analysis today that illustrates this dynamic. The chart on the top left of the slide shows the cumulative loss ratio by different book years, that is, cumulative claims incurred to date as a percentage of the earned premium to date. Because the earnings clearly is intended to reflect the timing of when claims are incurred over the life of the policy, these cumulative loss ratios to date for each cohort should be indicative of their ultimate profitability. The book years have been grouped in cohorts, which have broadly similar loss experience. And as you can see from the chart, the different cohorts have strikingly different loss experience, which I'll elaborate on below. Book years 2008 and 2009 were very unprofitable, with loss ratios around 75%. These cohorts have material proportions of low doc loans and were also significantly impacted by the GFC. The cohort from 2010 to 2014, with a loss ratio of around 40%, was adversely impacted by the mining boom and bust in regional Queensland and WA. The more recent book years from 2015 onwards are showing much better loss ratios, reflecting better pricing, better underlying quality, geographic mix and, to date, a lack of any major claim events. Loss ratios for 2020 and '21 are also low, but are not shown in the table as they have not had sufficient time to develop. The different profitability by cohort also needs to be viewed alongside the pattern of premium recognition. The majority of premium from the pre-2015 cohorts has now been recognized. Conversely, as you can see in the pie chart, the vast majority of unearned premium and expected future claims relates to the later cohorts of business post 2015. This slide demonstrates the embedded value in the unearned premium from the post-2015 underwriting years and which, over time, can be expected to lead to improving profitability and returns on equity. With that, I'd now like to hand back to Pauline to wrap up the presentation.

Thanks, Michael. So turning to the summary on Page 25. In summary, we've demonstrated today through our strong financial results, improved customer outcomes and market innovation that the strategy in place at Genworth is delivering for all our stakeholders. We're seeing improved results in our lender customers, evidenced by the success in our contract renewals and improving Net Promoter Score. We're delivering on new products that focus on borrowers and different shares in the market, and we're working hard on extending our existing offerings to provide alternative pathways to homeownership. And most importantly, we've delivered a strong set of financial results. As we look to the future, we expect premiums to return to more normal levels and the current benign claims environment to continue potentially through the first part of 2022 before returning to more normal levels later in the year. Full year 2022 NEP is expected to be in a range of about $315 million to $375 million, and the -- this range is largely dependent on the level of policy cancellations we experience. We remain very focused on returning excess capital to shareholders. The second half 2021 ordinary dividend when annualized is indicative of the expected medium-term sustainable dividend levels allowing for some growth over time. Noting, of course, that all future dividend decisions remain subject to Board determination based on circumstances at the time. The company's capital strength means that, in addition to ordinary dividends, we expect the capital generation from the in-force portfolio to be sufficient to fund business growth, and we'll continue to actively manage capital with an intent to bring the PCA ratio closer to the Board target range and thereby improving aggregate returns to shareholders as the business develops over time. And with that, I'll open up to any questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question in queue is from the line of Andrew Lyons from Goldman Sachs.

Just to -- maybe for Pauline just on the outlook. Firstly, you note that the ROE is expected to trend towards hurdle rate. Can you maybe just give a little bit more detail around what that looks like as far as the hurdle rate is concerned? Or at the very least, what you see are the moving parts? You've obviously got significant surplus capital and you have started tranche returning that to shareholders, but you're still going to be well above your target range. Can we sort of understand how you think about that as impacting the ROE? But then also some of the analysis on Slide 23 should also trend the ROE higher over time as well. Just would be keen to sort of understand those moving parts and anything else that might drive the ROEs as well. And then just a second question just around your comment on the medium-term dividend. You say that the second half ordinary dividend was indicative of maybe interim sustainable levels. Can I just clarify, is that in relation to the absolute dividend level or the payout ratio on the second half earnings?

Thanks, Andrew, for those questions. We've talked a lot over the last few years, I feel like it's been a recurring theme around the ROE and the trajectory and how, as a business, we're going to get the ROE up because for a number of reasons it's not been where it needs to be. The answer to that is twofold as you've indicated. One is the profitability of the business has been written in different cohorts, and the fact that we have a business that takes a long time to signal to go through the P&L. And what comes to our P&L is greatly affected by business that was written many years ago. So that's half of the answer, which is why Michael spent some time today trying to demonstrate the different experience we've seen in the cohorts to provide confidence that the business should be expected to trend in a better ROE over time as we've always asserted, I guess. Secondly, you're correct, the excess capital does have an impact on that, and that's also why we're trying to get that down. The -- we're very active in our capital management activities at the moment. It's easy to forget how the world was 12 months ago. And at that point in time, we're sitting here going, we'd like to resume capital management. We still -- there's still quite a wide range of outcomes that could have happened from COVID and there's still a question as to whether we need to conserve capital to get through the potential economic impact of COVID. As soon as we've got comfort and clarity around the asset -- I mean, you now have complete clarity, but more clarity, then very quickly, we've moved into capital management activities to try to get that out. So with those 2 moving parts, there's no reason to expect that the ROE -- what trend would -- should be over time. As you know, we don't publicly disclose our hurdle rate, but there's enough investment people and analysts on the phone today who would probably all being -- have tracked very similarly and come with a very similar estimate of what that number would be. As to the second point about the medium-term dividend. Yes, we did toy with whether we reinstate our previous guidance around dividend as a percentage of profit. The reason we haven't is because our profit -- our business has a very volatile profit signature. There's no 2 ways about that, and is directly impacted by claim. And we just thought that -- I genuinely think the dividend is not as volatile as a profit number. So it's going to make sense to express our intentions around dividend as a percentage of profit. We expressed them more as an intent to keep much more stability. And so you should be looking at those as a quantum not as a percentage of profit.

That's really helpful, Pauline. Stretch just on the first question for one more. Can you give us a feel perhaps, because I certainly understand around the hurdle rate disclosure, but can you maybe give us a feel on a capital optimized basis, sort of assuming that the front book and the back book were written, let's say, at the top end of your target range? Is the front book -- at-book ROE 1%, 5%, 10%? Is there any sort of guidance that you could perhaps give us on maybe what that front book, back book looks like?

The difference between the two?

Correct, yes.

The difference is very material. The back book are negative associates that Michael was showing you, 75% loss ratio. We don't make money.

I'm talking more -- when I say the back book, I'm talking more about the average of the entire book versus what you're writing in ROE in the current book year, I guess.

Yes. So we have -- our private hurdle rates are based that we believe all our shareholders would be very happy with. And as I said, we expect to trend similar over time.

[Operator Instructions] And our next telephone question is from Andrew Martin from Peak Investment Partners.

I have noted over time that your absolute claims paid have been in decline since 2017, yet you've got a loss ratio declining by underwriting here, yet the outstanding claims liability has continued to increase. So I suppose the question is, is the treatment of re-delinquencies being overly conservative given this clear trend as claims paid being in decline?

I'm going to get Michael to take that one.

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Look, as I noted, the treatment of re-delinquencies was a change in methodology. So there is a one-off lift in the outstanding claims reserves as a result of that. That's a judgmental call. I think it was an appropriate and remains an appropriate methodology. If re-delinquencies end up at lower levels than that's anticipated, then that will flow through as additional profit in the years ahead. If re-delinquencies occur at levels that are assumed in the reserving, then we're appropriately reserved. So I'm confident that, that's an appropriate allowance for it. I would also just caution too much about looking at the absolute amount of paid claims in the last 2 years as an indicator because they've been unusually low given the economic environment and the lender moratorium. So while we remain -- so in some respect, that holds your reserves up because you're continuing to need to hold reserves because claims are not moving through the pipeline. So I would expect over the next year or so, that level of claims paid to return perhaps to a slightly higher level as the lender moratoriums expire.

Yes. I think the other aspect to that is that the additional re-delinquency reserves going into outstanding claim liability came out of the premium liability. So whilst the credit line remains on our balance sheet, so it increases balance sheet liabilities moving up. It doesn't increase our capital position. It's important because that's what drive our ability to distribute capital.

[Operator Instructions] Our next telephone question is from Andrew Lyons from Goldman Sachs.

I'll ask one more if there's the opportunity, so I appreciate it. Just the NEP guidance, it's about a 20% range, which is relatively wide. Can you maybe just talk to the potential areas that could drive that sort of level of volatility within the within the NEP? Obviously, FY '22 GWP is uncertain, but the extent to which that earns through in year 1 is pretty limited. Are there any other variables that you're thinking about as to why that range, which is great to have so I appreciate it, but why it is so wide?

Andrew, it's Michael. Thank you for asking, and we're conscious that it's a wide range. But the volatility in that order potential is really all related to one variable, which is the level of cancellations. So we have pretty good lens into the in-built unearned premiums through the earnings curve that's highly predictable. But what is uncertain is the level of cancellations. When we have high cancellations, that releases additional unearned premium; if we have very low, there's less release. So I think -- and Pauline may have touched on it, that range is almost entirely a function of the cancellation. Now historically, they haven't been particularly volatile. So we've probably been able, with more confidence, to know where that's heading. But given the experience of the last 12 months, which was extremely high on the cancellations, we're just a little cautious around the potential range of that in the year ahead.

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the conference back to today's presenters for closing remarks.

Thank you, and thank you all for your interesting questions today. It was great to discuss the business with you. In closing, I just like to reiterate how genuinely proud I am of all our people and what we've achieved in 2021, financially, operationally and strategically, which has delivered some amazing results this year and set the company up for future success into the future. Thank you to all of our shareholders for your support, and we look forward to continuing to reward that support over the coming years as the business delivers. I look forward to talking with many of you in the weeks ahead. Enjoy your day. I'll now hand back to the moderator to end the call.

Thank you very much for that. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect, and have a great day. Good day.