HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 18, 2022

NASDAQ US Energy Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels special 32 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#1

[Audio Gap] Welcome to HighPeak's August 9, 2022 corporate presentation, which can be found under the News and Events tab on the company's website for HighPeak's disclosure language around forward-looking statements. I'd like to welcome Jack Hightower, who is HighPeak Chairman and CEO; and Mike Hollis, who's HighPeak President. HighPeak owns about 97,000 acres and 2 large acreage blocks in Howard County in the Permian Basin. 2 acreage blocks are called Flat Top and Signal Peak. The company has increased its acreage footprint in the area since it -- by about 54% since the beginning of 2022. Second quarter results were reported last week. Second quarter production averaged about 22,000 BOE per day, which was an 83% increase from first quarter 2022 production. The company recently acquired assets from a company called Hannathon in its Signal Peak area. And pro forma for those assets, second quarter production would have been about 25,400 BOE a day. HighPeak's currently running 4 rigs in the Flat Top area and 2 in Signal Peak, and it's a pleasure to be joined by Jack and Mike to talk about the company's recent growth and also to how it's positioned for growth in the future.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#2

So Jack, you've talked on the conference calls and just in time about HighPeak being one of the only companies or could be one of the only companies to meaningfully grow production and free cash flow in 2023. Can you talk about how you think about the balance between what you want to achieve in production growth and derisking the asset base and free cash flow and how you think about that in the context of value for high-peak shareholders?

Jack Hightower

executive
#3

Jeff, that's a great question. There's no question that analysts are really in tune to free cash flow and large distributions of cash flow back to the investors. But I would point out, we're a young company, and we had that philosophy at first 2 years ago, we only had about 800 barrels of oil a day. Today, we're over 25,000 barrels a day. When we had 800 barrels a day, we didn't have any cash flow. So we have to be able to develop this asset. It's a great asset. And in 2 years, we've gone from 800 to 25,000 barrels a day. And in fact, in just the last quarter, we went from roughly 12,000 barrels a day to 25,000 barrels a day. So we are definitely moving up into the right in terms of our production growth. Our philosophy basically though, is to do that with balancing debt versus equity and not going over a onetime debt-to-EBITDA number. But right now, we're going to continue leaning into. We have a great asset base, great reserve opportunities and with oil prices where they are, we're going to continue leaning into this, and that is the best value creation that we can have. Every well we're drilling is in excess even at today's process of a $20 million present value so if you think about that and think about how that increases EBITDA and then you think about where does that move our stock, which is relative to value creation or even somebody looking at us and saying, "Hey, are you an attractive purchase for us?" In both arenas, we look at saying, okay, if we increase our EBITDA this next year and we get a 4 to 5x multiple, that is tremendous value creation from where we are with our present drilling program.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#4

Jack, you talked about inventory in the company's most recent slide deck, you laid out the inventory in one of the slides in the appendix and point out that currently, in delineated zones between Signal Peak and Flat Top, you have roughly 50 rig years of inventory. When you look at the pace of activity with 6 rigs running and look at inventory that won't be drilled out for a number of years. How do you really think -- how do you value it? And how do you think investors ought to think about the value of that inventory?

Jack Hightower

executive
#5

Well, the bottom line is, when you think about a 50-year life, and that has been continuing to increase as we've delineated our primary zones, we've been adding additional zones as we develop our area. Our inventory of 50 years is in drilling about 150 wells a year is going to continue increasing. But more importantly, the real value increase for this inventory is that if you look at our overall block and you look at our appendix, that we had in our last presentation, you've seen a well count of almost 1,200 wells in our primary zones, up to 2,000 wells that are not fully delineated yet. But if you take the primary zones, it really doesn't matter what your type curve is, whether it's 500,000 barrels or in excess of 1 million BOE equivalent. If you look at 1,200 locations, even at the lower end, you're talking about almost 700,000 -- 700 million barrels net inventory opportunity, net reserves to HighPeak. It could be as high as $1 billion to 1.5 billion barrels. But on the low end of that inventory, it's a great inventory, great value creation and great opportunity for our shareholders to look at many, many years of growth, many, many years of opportunity here. And I look at it, even in past times, we probably could always sell oil in place in barrels of oil equivalent or barrels of oil recoverable in the $10 to $20 range. And so I look at HighPeak as a potential opportunity, somewhere between $10 billion and $20 billion of value creation here in the near term.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#6

Jack, as I mentioned earlier, HighPeak's acreage footprint in Howard County has grown about 54% since the beginning of the year and most recently adding acreage in the Signal Peak area. Do you still see opportunities to add core acreage in Flat Top and Signal Peak or just in Howard County in general around your assets?

Jack Hightower

executive
#7

We're always looking for opportunities. When we look at 97,000 plus acres in our area, we have plenty to have growth without having to spend dollars on purchasing something else. There are other opportunities in our area. Our attitude though, is it has to be part in my West Texas slang, dripping off the page, it has to be accretive to us, and we are not going to stretch our balance sheet to buy something else, but there are other opportunities. Right now, those other opportunities are simply at a price point that's not acceptable to us. And once they become dripping off the page and a definitely accretive opportunity, we know our whole area is very, very prolific. So we're encouraged by the fact that we have opportunity, but we also have a great asset base to develop.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#8

Jack, you've stressed a lot about growing, but also growing and keeping high peak very profitable. Companies got some of the best margins or has the best margins in the industry because of the high oil concentration that you have, but how do you -- as you look out over the next couple of years, how do you focus on continuing to be profitable for investors?

Michael Hollis

executive
#9

I think the best way to look at it is to continue our program. We have a 6-rig program going. We have the highest profit margins in the industry. We have amongst the highest recycle ratio in the industry. We're going to continue with this program on the basis of [indiscernible] where oil prices still provide us these types of returns. We can always pull back if we need to pull back. But right now, as we said earlier, we're going to lean into this opportunity. We're going to maintain our high margins and therefore, maintain our profitability -- and we feel like that we will be free cash flow in the very near future. And at that point in time, we can decide to either increase our drilling program or we can maintain the drilling program or we can start distributing more cash flow to our investors.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#10

HighPeak, I think, started 2022 with 4 rigs and then move to 5 and with the Hannathon acquisition has added a sixth rig down in Signal Peak. How do the results so far of the 2022 development program shape your thoughts around the company's growth potential and inventory over the next couple of years? And maybe how does that dovetail into the derisked location numbers that you included on the slide in the presentation?

Jack Hightower

executive
#11

I think that's really important for our investors to understand that we are extremely excited about our recent well results. Of course, we have delineated and are basically in process drilling mode on our entire flat top area, especially in the Wolfcamp A and the Lower Spraberry. And we've just started -- we drilled our first Wolfcamp D well in our first Wolfcamp B well, and that is starting to develop in Flat Top as well as we've fully delineated in the Signal Peak area, our entire Wolfcamp D zone, but we also have the Wolf A and the Wolf -- and the Lower Spraberry down at Signal Peak. And so we're really excited about the results of all those wells and we're excited about the opportunity to continue developing in this area in a very prudent manner and our whole area up to the north and our areas to the south is becoming very, very attractive to us.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#12

And the wells that we've drilled in the past have been performing very well in accordance with our expectations. Mike, maybe we can turn to you. So is the 6-rig pace, is that really the optimal development pace right now for high peak. So you -- maybe you don't outrun your knowledge of how the reservoirs are behaving, but you also don't outrun infrastructure and your ability to keep up with the rigs and the completion schedules?

Michael Hollis

executive
#13

You bet, Jeff. Yes, we definitely feel like our 4-rig program up in Flat Top and 2 rigs down in Signal Peak is the optimal run rate today to the point about whether we would outrun reservoir knowledge, as Jack mentioned, we delineated and have multiyear -- close to a decade of delineated assets to go to well up. But your second point about the infrastructure is absolutely why 6 is the right number. Two rigs down in flat top allows us to have the time to upgrade and drill an additional SWD down in Signal Peak which we need to be able to build out our water system recycle system and do that in a timely and efficient manner.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#14

So that the rig that you recently added at Signal Peak, when -- based on the development schedule, when would that rig start to add production volumes to the asset -- to the company's asset base?

Michael Hollis

executive
#15

You bet. And as you mentioned, we've added several rigs throughout the year. So rig 4 and 5, we're going to see that coming in third quarter. Sixth rig hit very late fourth quarter and in the first quarter of 2023. So we've put in a lot of capital, drill a lot of wells in known areas. So again, when these turn online, you will see the production increase very dramatically in a couple of quarters coming.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#16

I think last week on the earnings call, you mentioned that the current activity level of 6 rigs maintains an inventory of about 30 wells that will be turned in line per quarter and probably a similar number of wells in various stages of drilling and completion. But as you look at scaling the production profile up over the next several quarters and maybe even into 2023, how does the -- how does having that level of inventory and activity per quarter, how does that start to affect the production profile in terms of maybe smoothing out some of the issues around having wells be shut in for completion activity and maybe not eliminate, but maybe make that sawtooth a little bit less noticeable.

Michael Hollis

executive
#17

Absolutely. Great question, Jeff. With our base production growing to where it is today as well as this pace of completion and turn in lines that you mentioned, roughly $30 a quarter. Going forward, our production as we continue to put on large multi-well extended reach pads, there will still be lumpiness. Every company has it, but the lumpiness is different today than it has been in our past. So to kind of redefine the lumpiness going forward, our production profile will continue from here being up into the right, as Jack mentioned. And the lumpiness will be more a 10 to a quarter where you may only have a couple of thousand barrels or BOEs a day increase followed by a quarter where you could have 8,000 to 10,000 BOE a day increase. So those will be the salt tooth pattern that you'll see going forward. We're out of the point of being a young company that has the pain of the growth early on where that sawtooth pattern can be positive and negative production growth in between quarters. We're past that. So it's a good feeling to be out of that game now.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#18

At Signal Peak, so we talked about the acreage increase during 2022. The recent Hannathon acquisition added about 150 drilling locations and nearly 19,000 net acres in Signal Peak. And I guess it's worth noting that HighPeak already owned a non-operated interest in about 60% of the acquired acreage. So you obviously had a lot of knowledge about what you were buying. And I think you're running 2 rigs and 1 frac spread at Signal Peak. Like most of the wells have been drilled, I think, to the Lower Spraberry, Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp D., what do you think you'll do over the rest of 2022 with the program as far as further delineation and development of those zones?

Michael Hollis

executive
#19

You bet. As Jack mentioned, the Wolfcamp D is fully delineated across our entire acreage block, including the newly acquired Hannathon acreage. Our recent announcement of our Wolfcamp A and Lower Spraberry well performance that we had on our Martin Wells kind of in the airport of our block. Again, delineated all the way from the Western side where our offset operators have some Wolfcamp A and Lower Spraberry. So it's reasonable to expect that we'll continue to drill some of those wells this year. As we mentioned as well, we have about 18 wells, we'll turn online in Signal Peak, still left in 2022. As we look forward for further delineation into the first kind of early part of 2023, you'll see us step out to the east with the Lower Spraberry and Wolfcamp A. Geologically, we feel extremely confident that we can go as much as 3/4 of the way to the east on our entire block in the Wolf A Lower Spraberry. But one of the other zones that we've mentioned in the past that we are extremely excited about is the Wolfcamp C. From our recent core analysis that we've done, there's just too much oil in place not to put a drill bit in it. So I think it's, again, reasonable to expect that we will have a well that we can talk about early next year. With production that we are extremely excited about and very optimistic that it will perform like we expect. To that point, though, as Jack mentioned, the Wolfcamp C is extremely thick and oil-rich over more than half of our Single Peak acreage. So again, with that test and delineation of the Wolf C could add an additional several hundred wells to our inventory.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#20

You all have had -- or HighPeak has done a lot around infrastructure at flat top with oil and natural gas gathering processing agreements with electrical substation with saltwater disposal systems and wells and recycling capability. What kind of infrastructure do you need at Signal Peak as you continue to advance that development plan?

Michael Hollis

executive
#21

You bet it. At Signal Peak, we're still maybe a year behind where we are at flat top. The #1 in the highest priority today is upgrading the infrastructure -- SWD infrastructure that we have. We're currently integrated into the legacy Hannathon SWD system. So we are utilizing that fully today. We've got an SWD permitted in Signal Peak to drill to expand that system. So over time, you'll see us upgrade that system. We are recycling today. Again, the production volumes are smaller in Signal Peak. So again, we're not at the recycled percentage levels we are at flat top, but very quickly, we'll get there. So our goal is in 2023 to have all of the infrastructure in place in Signal Peak and have it operating as efficiently as we are up in Flat Top.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#22

The acreage added from Hannathon essentially is just to the west of your original Signal Peak footprint. Does having that larger acreage position there give you some advantages on infrastructure, especially with respect to trying to maximize the capital efficiency of that program.

Jack Hightower

executive
#23

Absolutely, it does, as I mentioned, we're already connected with the SWD systems that allows us to move our production fluid throughout the field and being able to use it for recycle, which again is extremely important on the CapEx side of completing these wells. Having the larger acreage block not only helps us with operationally being able to take advantage of infrastructure and moving fluids, moving gas and oil around, but it's also a large contiguous block undedicated. So you'd mentioned the oil and gas gathering takeaway negotiations that we're in today. This is a very unique situation to have 50,000 acres virtually undedicated on the oil side and the vast majority of it as well on the gas side. Huge value potential that we are taking advantage of in our negotiations to make sure that we get not only decreased OpEx as we build up this infrastructure, decrease CapEx associated with it as well, but also making sure that we get the very best realized price kind of the trifecta for operating in these areas.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#24

Mike or Jack, I think oil represented about 86% of HighPeak second quarter production which resulted in the company posting the best margins of the Permian Basin peers. Can you all talk about what you're doing on -- or what some of the infrastructure investments you all have made and the impact those have had on trying to preserve your margins and maybe offset some of the oilfield inflation that everyone is experiencing?

Michael Hollis

executive
#25

You bet. And Jeff, you know that we look at it holistically so I'll run through some of the infrastructure initiatives that we've put in place. And again, a lot of these projects are multiyear projects. So we've started to ease, we foresaw this coming, and we got out in front of this 1.5 years, 2 years ago. But at flat top, our water handling system now allows us to supply 2 frac crews with 100% recycled fluid, again, reducing our need for fresh water as well as reducing our CapEx cost. Our horizontal SWD Ellenburger wells. We've now had several of them. They are extremely efficient high-volume, large casing, reduces the costs needed and the energy needed to push this fluid into the ground, again, reducing our OpEx cost. The power substation that was energized back in late May. We've now removed over 70% of our local power generation generators that we were using, which you have to rent and fuel. So again, from an ESG standpoint, we removed a ton of emissions point sources from our field as well as reduce our OpEx cost of operating and lifting the fluid from our wells. But with that system in place, we've also been able to plug in 1 drilling rig to electrical power from the grid. That saves us roughly $90,000 to $100,000 a well, depending on diesel price. We will have our second rig plugged in by the fourth quarter and plan to continue with all the rigs we have up in Flat Top over time as transformers come available. We're also supplying one of our frac crews up in Flat Top with wet sand from our sand mine partnership that became operable about a month ago. We've ramped up to 1. We've got line of sight to running our second one by the fourth quarter. And as quickly as we can get equipment to run the wet sand at our locations, we'll continue to ramp up that usage. Wet sand being right next to your field operations reduces the truck traffic and number of trucks needed to get the sand on location as well as the cost of the sand is less than half, close to 1/3 of what we're having to pay for the sand FOB wherever it's being delivered from. Again, roughly $300,000 to $400,000 per well that we can utilize in all of these frac crews. So as we increase the number of frac crews, you'll start to see our cost structure come down on the CapEx side. Again, we're getting both the CapEx and the OpEx side of our infrastructure fully utilizing that, integrating it into our system. And again, we try to look at everything holistically so that we're able to take full advantage of it. And again, it's kind of the best of both worlds.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#26

Mike, I'm sure with 6 rigs running now, you're putting the pieces in place for what you'll need equipment wise in 2023. Can you share with us any thoughts around what you're seeing for oilfield inflation looking out through next year?

Michael Hollis

executive
#27

Absolutely. And again, no one has a crystal ball kind of our guess today since we have had a very large move industry-wide and inflationary pressures. We're looking into 2023 at about 5% to 10% is what we're planning for. Whether that happens or not, and it's more or less, again, we walk through some of the initiatives that we have in place to take care of that. You had mentioned some of the equipment and things needed for our program in '23. Again, the machine is built, the rigs, the frac crews, the people. We've already purchased pumps, tanks, downhole equipment, tubing, pipe all the way out into kind of the mage in time of 2023 now, and we're working to fill in the gaps for the rest of '23. So again, we want to make sure that we have 0 hiccups, anything that can affect our efficiencies of this machine that's built and purring today. As far as cost of what we're seeing today, kind of the DC E&F cost for Flat Top today, they're running right at $600 a foot. And again, that's all in calls. Again, we talked about the wet sand usage, powering the rigs. And by fourth quarter, we're -- that's roughly $35 to $50 a foot different from the $600 that we're paying today. So look at that trending somewhere in the $550 range. Signal Peak runs about 10% higher. So kind of the goal we have internally is that 2023, if there is that 5% or 10% inflationary pressure that we can hold our CapEx numbers flat or slightly down trending into 2023.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#28

Jack, maybe we can just circle back to the notion of creating value. You've obviously been involved with a lot of different platforms in the oil and gas industry for a lot of years. Can you talk about where -- what you think HighPeak path is over the next several years and how you think that will translate into value creation for stakeholders.

Jack Hightower

executive
#29

Jeff, I learned a long time ago, the macroeconomics and what's happening in the world have a great impact on value creation and timing. And so we look at the overall industry, and we then go to saying, okay, where are oil prices, what's the probability of oil prices staying at this level are increasing -- are declining from here? We know, and I've said this before in prior presentations that the industry as a whole, and it doesn't matter if it's your sovereign wealth nations, if it's the Middle East, if it's China, Russia, the U.S., we are not reinvesting but about 30% of what's necessary to maintain our present deliverability. These things happen in the marketplace looks at it in the short term. They say, well, in the short term, we went from $130 plus a barrel now down to $80 something a barrel, a very big decline in the marketplace. But at the end of the day, if you just think about looking at the amount of oil that's been coming out of storage every week, a little bit. There's been a few weeks where we've had added oil into storage, but not when you consider the decline that's coming out of the strategic petroleum reserve. Every single week, we would have not had oil added to storage. We know that there's technical problems that can happen in pulling oil out of the strategic reserve. I'm not going to sit here and be an engineer until I know exactly what's happening. But when you look at less and less oil each week coming out of the reserve and an administration that definitely wants to lower the price of fossil fuels, then all of a sudden, you start saying, okay, last week, we had a 7 million-barrel drawdown of our storage. You add the 3-point-some million barrels, almost 10 million-barrel drawdown. This is going to be a continuing thing because of lack of reinvestment. Most of the big companies are making distributions of free cash flow, they are only drilling enough to maintain. But on a worldwide basis, we are not reinvesting enough to not only not maintain, but we're going to have a decline. And this -- we see that as value creation going forward. We see it as just factual. It's not hypothetical. These projects take a lot of time, a lot of capital, a lot of money, and they even have to have a risk factor in terms of are they going to be ultimately successful or not successful. And Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani [indiscernible] that in 24 years, he founded OPEC and minister of oil from Saudi Arabia, and that's the approach we take is looking at macro. So on a macro scale and with where oil prices are now, we already know the value creation is fantastic. When you have the reservoirs that we have compounded with that, and you have a 6-rig program that we're going to continue with going into the future. So HighPeak is destined to be one of the few public companies that's going to grow production, establish free cash flow and have tremendous returns and growth over the next year and 2023 is going to be a breakout year for us. And so we're extremely encouraged relative to worldwide macroeconomics with our own reservoir back home, with our ability to generate capital and the liquidity we have in maintaining a strong balance sheet. So we thank you for your support and help and we like to thank our shareholders and anybody listening also.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#30

Jack, I think you summed up the value proposition for High Peak very well with a company with a deep inventory and a very constructive macro environment. I'd like to thank you for joining us today. Mike, thank you for your time today.

Michael Hollis

executive
#31

Thank you.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#32

We appreciate it and look forward to hosting another fireside chat at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Michael Hollis

executive
#33

Thanks, Jeff. We appreciate it.

Jeffrey Robertson

analyst
#34

Thank you.

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