Humble Group AB (publ) (HUMBLE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for listening to Humble Group quarter presentation, the fourth quarter for the year-end of 2023. My name is Simon Petren. And with me, I have Johan Lennartsson, the CFO of the group.

Good morning, everyone.

So today, we will go through a bit of the highlights of the quarter. We will review the financial information and the segments and also round out things with an outlook for 2024 and some Q&A. So feel free to send your questions in the sheet for the online format. So as for the fourth quarter, I think we have ended the year on a strong note. We can see that the momentum with strong net sales growth across all of the quarter is maintained. It is the most important quarter for the year, and I'm happy to see that we have been able to deliver strong growth across all the segments, also improving the gross margin. But the most important thing, we have also maintained a really strong cash flow, which is something that we have seen across all the quarters for 2023. So let's start with just a few words about the group. I mean most of you have heard us before, but we are a modern FMCG group focusing on health and sustainability, driven by innovation, integrity, passion and entrepreneurship. We have, across the years, gathered a group of entrepreneurs that are well oriented in the market and know how to drive innovation and develop new products that meets a modern consumer. We believe that there is a fantastic strong trend in health and sustainability. And where the market is today is going to be vastly different in just a couple of years. Our business model is having these companies within the group where we have now created platforms of strong companies working together, driving value and innovation throughout the decentralized business model where the entrepreneurs are able to drive their business, but we as a group are able to support with synergies throughout the platform that we have, driving value and increasing the growth and the product quality. So let's dig into the net sales, Johan.

Yes. And so we are, of course, very happy to announce that we see a continued strong demand for our products. The net sales for the quarter came in on SEK 1.9 billion, as can be compared with SEK 1.6 billion in the same quarter last year. The organic growth reached 18%, which is a good figure according to us. And on an annual basis, we passed SEK 7 billion, which is a milestone for us. And the organic growth for the year was 16%.

Yes. And I mean, what's really driving this growth is actually -- I get a question a lot many times from investors. And what we can really see is that we have throughout 2023, we have created more than 3,000 products. We actually have more than 1,000 new B2B customers active in our business intelligence system. So it is the hard work of all of our entrepreneurs and companies every day. We bring more products into more markets. And I'm also really happy about some of the launches that we have made. We are creating value. We are building a new FMCG offering to the modern consumers. And I think that's really valid because if you look at this organic growth, 18%, it's vastly higher than the market in general, and it's actually driven by a majority of volume. So in the beginning of the year, we could see that the price was driving a bit of the increase. But during the last 6 months, it's mainly volume that has been the driver behind this. So I think we have something unique here. We are driving growth through more products, new innovation, and it's volume driven. I think that is something that really will show our strength in the coming years. So let's talk a bit about the gross profit.

Yes. And we're also happy to announce a strong gross profit for the quarter on 31.7% in the gross margin. In total numbers, this was SEK 640 million compared to SEK 478 million for the same quarter last year. And also, we note a strong improvement compared with the previous quarter in Q3 where we reported 29%. So we are happy to deliver 31.7% in the fourth quarter. For the year, we ended up in a gross profit of just around SEK 2.1 billion, and the gross margin for the full year was 30%.

Yes. And I mean, I've been talking a lot about this in our previous presentations. The gross margin is still deflated compared to where it was in 2020. I have to remind everyone that we buy around 80% of everything in euro and dollar. We sell roughly 60% in SEK. So of course, the currency has been a big factor in this. But we are starting to see that some of the inbound prices from suppliers is coming down. The freight cost has come down quite significantly. But as you're aware, also, we have a crisis in the Red Sea. So I think the prices have come up a little bit now in Q1, but we have good contracts in place there. So it's quite a bit lower than the spot level. But this is something that we have been focusing on in the year, and we're still not there yet. I think we have a lot of improvements to make. We are working very, very diligently in all of our companies to see how can we improve the gross margin, working with pricing towards our customers, but mainly also going back to the suppliers to get the lower inbound prices. I think in general, when I look at the 20 indexes that we follow for raw materials, almost all of them are down except [ Kakao ], which is vastly up. So I mean, I think it's hard to say how much that is going to impact. But in general, I think the prices are coming down a bit. And if we do the right things there, we have an improvement to make over the coming years. So this has been a focus for the group, and it's going to continue to be a strong focus for us going forward.

And in terms of the profitability, overall profitability, it is in line with our expectations for the quarter and for the full year. For the quarter, we amounted on adjusted EBITDA on SEK 190 million, which was a comparative figure of SEK 179 million. And for the full year, we ended up in SEK 696 million on adjusted EBITDA development. This comprised a total growth year-on-year of 26%. And adjusted EBITDA ended up in SEK 584 million for the full year. And also that number is comparative to 25% on an annual gross basis.

Yes. So when we look at the profitability numbers here, I think, I mean, they are quite good. They could be even better. But I have to remind everybody listening that 1/3 of the group is actually brands focusing like on health and sustainability, it's [ Foodtech ] brands. And if you look at the market in general, 80% of similar brands aren't even profitable. So I'm actually quite happy with what we are able to achieve. Our brands are making money, and we are still growing organically in the market despite spending a lot on marketing. So I mean, we are investing for growth there. We are driving a lot of value in our assets with the brands and that's a bit costly. But I'm happy with the profitability at these levels at least. I think we can improve it even further. And if you look in the coming period, we have some work to do here, bringing the gross margin back up and keeping a tight cost control. Across the year, I think we've done in total 83 organizations. So we have slimmed down the personnel a bit. I think there are further improvements here. And as you all know and can read about in the comments for the report, we have initiated several like consolidation and integration projects. So we are taking these costs now to further improve the efficiency of the group going forward, which is also something that we have seen that some of the smaller units in the group. We can bring them in a bigger platform. By doing that, we will drive value. We increase the value of the platform because we might add new channels or products or competencies from personnel, but it will also streamline the efficiency. So that is something we have been doing throughout the year. I think we have further projects and the consolidation opportunities within the group. But I'm really happy with what we've achieved in the last 6 months. I think we are a much better company now than we were a year ago, and this is going to showcase in the coming years.

And talking about the cash flow then. We came in on a quite strong cash flow, I would say. The operational cash flow for the full year amounted to almost SEK 1.1 billion. For the quarter, we ended up in SEK 285 million, and we had a quite good release of net working capital of SEK 156 million. What are your thoughts about this, Simon?

Yes. I mean, I think we've said that we are going to focus on the cash flow because we need to bring the debt down. I think it's really showing that we've been able to do that throughout the year. When we started the year, I was not happy with the levels of the net working capital in relation to sales. I think we've done a significant improvement here. There is still further things to do because if we look at the peers of larger global FMCG groups, I think they are much more efficient than we are even right now. So I mean, we've done a big journey here, but I think we have a lot left to do. So I'm quite happy to see. I mean, we have a really stable cash flow like every month, generating good cash but the net working capital can be improved. So I'm hopeful that we will continue to deliver good cash flow in the coming period.

And talking about net interest-bearing debt. We also -- we're very happy to announce or see that we have a positive development. This is, of course, mainly due to the refinings that we did in autumn, during the autumn, but also from our strong organic cash flow that Simon just mentioned. So we see that it's coming down on the fourth quarter to just around SEK 1.5 billion, excluding leasing should be also worth mentioning here.

Yes. And I mean if you look at the graph here, I mean, I think Q3, it's a little bit misleading because we had a lot of one-off costs with the redemption of the bonds after the summer. But we can clearly see that during the last 6 months and since the refinancing, we generate a lot of cash, and we are able to bring the debt down organically. And as I wrote also in the comments for the report. This is something that I've been waiting for since we started this. Now we have a group with really solid cash flow. We generate a lot more than we spend. And we will be able to use that cash efficiently in the future to create even more value per share for our shareholders. So I'm happy to see the development here. I think this is what people have expected and wanted us to do. And it has been a major initiative for us to fix during 2023. We are not there yet. I think we can get the debt down even further, but I still think we'll come far away. And -- yes, I think that's a nice feeling for all of us. So let's talk a bit about the segments. In Future Snacking, we've had really strong development. The companies are growing. We have -- a lot of our brands are getting new listings into new channels and trade. We haven't really lost any one that I have heard. So I think it's clear that our products are well received by the market, and we are starting to see more and more international distribution points within our key brands here. The LEV factory and the development of the [ Dia ] stores has also been great. We've actually invested in additional size for the factories because we've already filled up the demand in about a year. So that's really impressive. We have done integration with FCB and Tweek. I'm quite happy to see the work there already and starting to roll out that new branding and getting better exposure. True Gum, as you're aware, we acquired a ration brand, which has been a good addition to the portfolio and where we now developed a True bar with our own factory bars production. And also, I think the major initiative during the last 6 months is Arena Confectionery, where we have now gathered all of the confectionery manufacturers under one roof, and we have started to look into centralized pricing, procurement and all of those functions to really drive efficiency but also scale within those companies. What's clear here is that all of our manufacturers have basically been at full capacity. So we have moved a few of the products between them to improve their utilization on one shift. And we have invested into going up to 2 and 3 shifts during out the year. So if we manage to do this, I'm quite confident we'll be able to provide good growth going forward. But it's a lot of work. The customers are there. We just need to get more products out to the market. And when we look at Sustainable Care, I mean, this is one of our biggest segments in the group. And I think [ Sonnet ] here is a real powerhouse. It's really driving value, nice growth, strong profitability and cash flow. So that is a leading star within this segment. We are working to improve the bigger companies. At Humble Co, we have worked a lot in the U.S. market and some reorganization native. We have strengthened throughout the year with a strong team and organization in place and a new marketing strategy. So we're hopeful that, that will come back to solid profitability levels going forward. In faster stage, we've done a strategic overview. And we are reorganizational a bit. We also took an impairment of SEK 31 million one-off costs there. So I think overall, this segment is doing well, but we have a lot of upside going forward with some of those bigger companies where we've done a lot of work throughout the year to be even better long term. And when we look at the quality Nutrition. A lot of work has been put into getting the bar facility in Sydney online. It's actually now done. So we are rolling out now in Q1, which is fantastic to see. We've also brought a new innovation, the soft part to Australia. So I'm quite excited about that given the success it had in Europe. We've also had a few collaborations here, Body Science, looking to enter Europe. We've done a lot of work with the drinking line. I love energy drinks, and we have a huge demand from customers. So that is set to start sometimes in Q2 if we don't have any further machinery delays, but things have been progressing well. Also, Vitargo is a really interesting brand. We have refined the export strategy. We've done a rebranding and we are now moving into new retailers. I'm quite excited to see what we can do with that brand in Europe and even globally. And then lastly, the Arena Nutrition platform has grown. As I said before, we've also had much more demand than we have had capacity. I think the bar development, we have several projects with the new bar lines coming online here in the coming months, same with the powder facility with Ewalco, which is the biggest company in the B2B segment here, where we've also done some efficiency improvements. So I think what we see is pretty much the same message as in future snacking. We have a lot of demand. We just need to deliver more products and make sure that our facilities are even more efficient with the capacity utilization. And then the Nordic distribution. I mean, we've done a lot of work this year. We've had integrations into [indiscernible] is in there now. We've also done a complete revamp of the IT logistics, which will drive a lot of more value and automation of digital orders, et cetera. And also, we've integrated [ GST 4 ] -- to drive efficiency there. So I think we put this segment in a good position. I still believe there is a lot to do with the pricing together with the procurement and working with the customers. We can also do even more on the net working capital because this is a quite capital-intensive segment. But I think we've done a good job here, and the consolidations are almost finalized. So going into '24 and '25, we will have all the tools needed to continue to deliver. So to round things up about the outlook for 2024. I mean, we want to maintain a strong organic growth. I think that is something that's really clear. We've been able to drive a lot of growth through volume despite the market being very tough on a lot of FMCG companies. We have many new initiatives, new products. We are going into new markets. And if we are able to do like what we've done in the past, I'm confident about that. We have further potential to release more net working capital. It's hard to say how much we can do, but remind you that we are actually growing a lot also. So that naturally will tie a bit of net working capital. So we will see, but we are working to continue to release that. The gross margin, I mean, there are several factors with the currency, the freight costs, the raw material prices, et cetera. But I dare say we've been through the worst throughout the last 18 months. So that is something we focus on now to regain and is the main focus for all of our companies. As I mentioned, we've done a lot of consolidation, but we see further potential to do that. We haven't really seen the full effect because of all the restructuring costs, et cetera, that we had throughout those different companies. But -- we are becoming an even more efficient group. We are building around our strong platforms and leadership and management within those. And I'm hopeful that, that is something that will drive value going forward. And then I mean, 2023, we did a couple of acquisitions. We did a few asset deals. I'm not saying we're going to start acquiring a lot of businesses tomorrow, but I would say in the last 6 months of 2024, hopefully, our balance sheet is as strong as we want it to be and where we can start acquiring businesses organically because there is a lot of companies that wants to become part of Humble Group and where we see a strong strategic fit, both for them and for us. So I mean, we've done a lot of acquisitions in the past to build this platform. Now we know exactly what is missing and what we look for. So I'm quite excited about that, but we still need to work on the balance sheet before we want to do more acquisitions. So that was everything from me. Let's dig into some Q&A.

And as always, there is a lot of activity here in the comment section and question section. Of course, very, very happy. Fun to see. Our first question was regarding the gross margin increase substantially in Q4, timing effect or -- talk about this.

I mean it's across all of the segments, and it's a lot of companies. I think it's based on all of the initiatives that we've been working on. The freight cost is coming down and also some of the raw material prices. So yes, I mean, the currency was played in our favor regarding the margin. So I think it's based on all of the TDs work across the group. It's quite -- as you can see in all of the segments, we are improving. But yes, we're still far from where we want to be.

Yes. A few questions regarding the OpEx levels, current OpEx levels. Are they to be around where they are in Q4?

We had a little bit higher than we usually have in Q4. We took a lot of costs from a lot of the marketing investments going into 2024. So I don't think it's going to be that high in the future. But I mean, as I said also, we're not afraid to take costs to invest long term. I think the profitability levels are still very strong given all of the investments we've made.

Yes. A few questions on the increased amortization of intangible fixed assets. You mentioned the impairment of the Sustainability Care segment?

Yes. We also -- I mean we sold [ big ] production. We got what we paid with it, but we had a like IFRS effect there of a one-off minus. So -- but also fancy stage. I mean we don't have any other impairments. So it's good. We took those now, and we're ready for 2024.

And then a few questions about what to expect from the cash flow going forward. You mentioned that we've done investments and we're talking about the capacity, what to expect from the overall cash flow coming year?

I think, I mean, operational cash flow should be strong. We don't see any indications that it shouldn't. And as I've said, I mean, if we are growing like we've done throughout this year, with almost SEK 1 billion organically, we naturally will tie some net working capital with that. But that being said, I still think we have a couple of percentage that we can release relative to sales. So I don't want to promise that we will release net working capital. But we are monitoring that closely, and we still see further potential there. I think if you look further down the cash flow, you can see that we've done a lot of investments throughout this year, but several bar lines, [ straight ] lines assets. So that is something I'm not seeing. It's going to be on the same intensity as it has been for 2023. So I think that the free cash flow will be a bit stronger, but the operating cash flow, we will see.

But then in terms of the capacity and the work we're doing with the current production facilities in terms of -- that's also something question here about the capacity levels that you are talking about. Can you explain a little bit further why are we...

Yes. I mean if you have a factory running one shift, if you add two shifts, you can generally add maybe 80%. I mean there might be some problems across the factory in terms of machinery, et cetera. But if you enable that, you get a fantastic return on the investment regarding your machinery and all the fixed costs, which is not double because you go up to second shift. So that is something we're working on. But remind you, I mean, scaling into that, you need to hire personal, you need to train them, which is what we have been doing throughout this last 6 months mainly. And we're not up to a second or third shift in the factories yet. But trust me, it's one of the targets that we want to get done because if you have the demand, you want to produce and deliver the product. It's good for the profit and cash flow and everything. So that's what we are looking at. And I think that's natural when you have a factory. It's really when you scale up with shifts, you get that economy of scale. So -- it's one of the things that our team is working intensively on to support the entrepreneurs because it's a tedious task to do also.

Yes. Just one final question. Do you want to mention anything about the IPO list change? What's on the work?

I mean it has been progressing well. And yes, we have the ambition to do it as soon as possible and when the Board sees it.

And it's a timing effect as well, I think, but the work is progressing well.

Yes.

I think we've covered most of the questions, at least, I see the time is also running out, but something you want to add as final words.

No, as I mentioned in the comments, I mean, thank you, everyone, for listening in and being part of this journey. I mean it has been a tough time for consumer companies in general. I think we've done a lot of work throughout this year. And as I said, I mean, what we have done this last year is going to make us a much better company in the coming 10 years. So we've been working hard, but I'm happy with the achievements and -- very excited to see what the future has to bring. We have a lot of growth initiatives throughout the group with innovation, capacity and stuff like we've been talking about. So just some of those are getting to where we want them to be. I think we have a good time ahead of us.

Yes. To summarize, we are excited to move into 2024 and see what we have.

Yes. Thank you very much.

Thank you.