Icade ($ICAD)

Welcome to the Icade First Quarter 2026 Trading Update Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to the speakers. Nicolas Joly, CEO; and Bruno Valentin, CFO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Bruno Valentin and I are very pleased to present Icade's First Quarter 2026 trading update. As usual, the presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. So let's start with Slide 5 and the key messages for the quarter. First quarter was marked by the successful completion of the disposal of Marignan building on the Champs-Elysees for EUR 402 million. This operation is fully aligned with our reshaped road map as it reflects our disciplined approach to crystallize value while maintaining strong balance sheet. In particular, this transaction had a positive impact of around 3 percentage points on the LTV ratio and on the group's liquidity position that increased to around EUR 2.8 billion, enabling us to anticipate upcoming maturities with confidence. In Property Investment, leasing activity was broadly in line with our expectations with around 25,000 square meters signed or renewed during the quarter. Rental income was down 2.1% on a like-for-like basis, and the financial occupancy rate stood at 85%, reflecting expected departures at the beginning of the year. In Property Development, the year started well, but activity slowed in March, especially in the individual segment in a more volatile environment. Based on the information available today, we confirm our 2026 guidance while remaining attentive to the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the further impact on the group activities. So let's now turn to Slide 6. As I mentioned, we completed the sale of the Marignan building early April for EUR 402 million. This asset was acquired 20 years ago, and we were able to create value through building a project, evicting tenants and obtaining the permit. We took advantage of an increased market interest for this type of value-add asset to conduct a highly competitive bidding process, which allowed us to achieve 20% premium above NAV as of December 2024. The disposal of this asset fully illustrates the group's ability to create value through active asset management and strategic portfolio rotation. Let's now move to Slide 8 and review the performance of Property Investment. In a leasing market that remains softer, we stake up in the Paris region down 15% year-on-year, Icade signed or renewed around 25,000 square meters in the first quarter. These leases represent EUR 7.3 million of annual headline rental income with a WALB of 5.9 years. One of the key achievements of the quarter was the renewal of around 13,000 square meters with the French Ministry of the Interior in Le Prairial building in Nanterre. This major transaction once again confirms the attractiveness of La Defense and Peri-Defense area for our large clients. The financial occupancy rates stood at 85% as of March 31, 2026 compared to 86.8% at the end of 2025. This trend was expected and mainly reflect departures that materialized at the beginning of the year. The financial occupancy rate remains the top priority for our asset management teams and should gradually improve over the course of 2026. Let's now move to Slide 9 for property development. The first quarter showed mixed performance across the Property Development business. At the end of March, total orders stood at 727 units, up 4% year-on-year in volume terms, but decreased by 21% in value terms at EUR 165 million. In the individual segment, orders were down 10% year-on-year in volume terms. This reflects a marked slowdown in March as the deterioration in the international environment, wide on market sentiment and led to a more cautious stance from customers. On institutional side, investors remained active. Indeed, bulk orders were up 27% year-on-year in volume terms, although first quarter order values were wide down by an unfavorable product mix that is not representative of expected full year trends. I will now hand over to Bruno for the review of first quarter earnings.

Thank you, Nicolas. Let's move to Slide 11. Total IFRS consolidated revenue came in at EUR 278 million in the first quarter, down 14.7% year-on-year. In Property Investment, gross rental income decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. In Property Development, revenue fell by 19.3%, reflecting lower activity in debenture and commercial development along with the base effect from the disposal of the Tolbiac asset completed in Q1 2025. Let's now turn to Slide 12 for a closer look at retail income. Gross retail income from property investment amounting to EUR 91 million compared to EUR 94 million at March 31, 2025. On a like-for-like basis, it declined by 2.1%, mainly to expected tenants, departure and gradual crystallization of negative reversion on renewals. These trends were partly offset by positive effects of indexation accounting for plus 1.1%. On Page 13, economic revenue from property development was 11.4% lower in Q1 2026 versus 2025 that are adjusted from the sale of Tolbiac asset accounting for circa EUR 20 million. Residential revenue was 9% year-on-year, reflecting a lower backlog for previous years. Residential revenue for the Commercial segment fell by 31% due to the absence of any significant new projects secured. I will now hand back to Nicolas for the outlook and conclusion.

Thank you, Bruno. Let's move to Slide 15 for the 2026 outlook. Since late February, the conflict in the Middle East has contributed to a sharp increase in geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. At this stage, it remains difficult to assess the full extent, duration and actual impact of this new environment on both the global economy and the domestic market. Subject to this caveat and based on the information currently available as well as the group earnings as of March 31, we confirm our 2026 group net current cash flow guidance of between EUR 2.90 and EUR 3.10 per share. As a reminder, this 2026 guidance includes net current cash flow from strategic operation of EUR 2.25 to EUR 2.45 per share that is expected to mark a low point and net current cash flow from discontinued operation of approximately EUR 0.65 per share. In conclusion, in a volatile and uncertain context, we remain fully focused on execution and on pursuing our transformation with rigor, discipline and a clear strategic direction. While 2026 will still bring challenges, we are determined to keep moving forward to stay close to our markets and clients and to deliver on our road map. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are now ready to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Stephane Afonso from Jefferies.

I'll take them one by one. So first, on the guidance and the trough. Your comments seem to suggest that you could potentially revise your targets and just wanted to better understand the operational sensitivity behind that in particular. How should we think about order volumes in Icade promotion for this year? And should we expect a higher level of departures in 2026? So that's my first question.

Okay. Thank you, Stephane. Well, if we take a look at the first quarter, you see that on development, we were impacted in March with a slowdown in order volume early. Well, once said that, however, the Q1 volumes are traditionally low and not really representative of the full year activity. And on top of that, as I said, it's still too early for us to assess properly the market's impact precisely all over the 2026 and 2027 year on development. So that's why we remain cautious, and we keep -- have a close eye on the situation. Well, as for the investment market, more globally on the market, you saw that Q1 was a quiet quarter, both in investment and leasing markets. On the one hand, for the leasing market globally, the take-up will fall by roughly minus 15% year-on-year in the Paris region. However, you saw in the results that we are in line with our expectation on the leasing activity with those roughly 25,000 square meters that were led during the first quarter. And as for the departures expected in 2026, we are still in line with what we've shared 2 months ago on the result i.e., EUR 30 million expected out of the potential EUR 60 million. So we are in line with what we expected for the leasing activity on the investment division. So that's globally what we see. On the guidance, clearly, as I said, the conflict in the Middle East clearly widened the international environment. This contributed to heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. So that's the reason why we are closely monitoring the development. In our view, this could affect, of course, the global economy. So credit markets, interest rates, inflation, raw material cost and supply chain, especially on our domestic market. So it's difficult at this stage to assess the full extent and duration of the impact on both '26 and '27. But as I said, once said that and based on the information we have to date as well as the group result at the end of March, we reaffirm today the 2026 guidance on the group net current cash flow, so between EUR 2.90 and EUR 3.10 per share.

I understand that the sensitivity of the 2026 guidance is more related to the promotions. So what would it take in terms of volumes to make you revise your guidance?

We'll keep on looking closely at the development, but as you said, this could widen the demand clearly due to the impact on high interest rates. We'll see if what we have looked in March shall last all over the year or shall recover. And once again, it's too early to tell on this. But clearly, that's on the property development where you could have the largest impact, of course.

Okay. And post 2026 for departures, where do we stand regarding Veolia, AXA and also Thales?

Yes. If we take them one by one, so starting 2027 with AXA, no journeys to be shared today on both of them, clearly. Otherwise, we would have shared that with you. As we've said 2 months ago, there is no emergency on those, but we keep on having a discussion with these long-standing clients. We are not so worried about break option of AXA at the end of '27 and the expiry of Veolia in '28. Clearly, what we saw in Nanterre where the AXA asset is located is clearly a sustainable positive leasing dynamic this quarter, including for Icade, this large renewal with the French Ministry of Interior. So all of that are quite good news. We keep on discussing with them, and we will, of course, update you in due course on any developments, but not so worried clearly about the break option on AXA or Veolia.

For Thales?

For Thales, we are also having some discussions. I think the highest probability for them together in a much larger headquarters they have in development. So that might be the one that could vacate the building, clearly. That's how we are getting prepared and already are looking for any potential tenants should they vacate the building. It's much lower rent for Thales than AXA and Veolia.

Okay. But what is the time line if they were to leave?

'27 in line with AXA and Veolia.

Okay. And maybe one last question on dividends. I have in mind that usually you received notification from IHE in April. Therefore, should we expect any dividend from them this year? And if so, hopefully, how much?

Well, as we shared 2 months ago, there is no dividend expected from IHE. So the main part of the EUR 0.65 per share included in the guidance on discontinued activities come from the dividend expected from Premier Healthcare, which is the French part of the business, which is still suspended to the general assembly that should take -- take place during this Q2.

Okay. And just maybe one last question on interest rates. I just try to quantify the cash flow sensitivity to rates this year. So for instance, what would be the annualized impact of 10 bps increase in the yield job?

There is no issue for 2026. And the effect for the -- we are hedging for 100%. So nevertheless, of the interest, we have no impact on the cash flow for 2026.

The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF.

So I have 2 questions, so I can ask one by one. So my first question will be on the Property Investment activity. So we can see that your like-for-like growth is at minus 2.1%. You expected notably at the beginning so you had some departure of tenants. So could we expect that the like-for-like growth for the rest of the year could be higher than your like-for-like growth for Q1? And maybe also on the offices. So what is your sentiment today on your IOS with discussion of tenants for the rest of the year?

Okay. Thank you, Florent. Well, on the like-for-like, well, globally, overall, I'd say that performance remains in line with 2025, clearly including the progressive crystallization of the negative reversion on the one hand, on the other hand, the impact of tenant departures. So globally, that's where we stand. We are not seeing any major reason for improvement over the year, but the performance shall be in line with what we saw in 2025 and more globally about the discussion we are having with the tenants, while it's in line with what we see on the market, clearly, discussions take longer and longer. That's why it's a key advantage to know quite well our long-standing clients. You saw in the Q1 figures on the Paris region that very low volume of transactions signed or renewed. Most of the tenant stays in their existing premises clearly, that's what we see. And we are globally in line with the major trend we saw at the end of '25 and this early Q1. More specifically, on our investment division, we are in line with what we were expecting and what we showed 2 months ago that what we saw in the figures that has been crystallized during the Q1 and that what we expect over the due course of 2026. And we try to anticipate as much as possible the potential expiries in '27 and '28. But this has to be done in a satisfactory way for both the tenant but also for Icade. So there's no need to anticipate break options. We are not so worried about and grant very large incentive if there is no need to. Okay.

Okay. Yes. Okay. And maybe -- so my second question on property development. So we have been able to see that month of March was very difficult on your reservation for individual people. So now we are in April. Maybe you have been able to discuss with your operational teams. And do you see any improvement or any confirmation of what you have seen in March?

Globally, what we see now is in line with what we saw in March, clearly because all of that is related to the overall environment. That's the reason why we remain cautious in our assumptions. As I said, really early to draw any conclusion at this stage. We are also waiting to see what the banks will do regarding the individual investors that also might have an impact on the demand. Clearly, we will see what could widen the cost of raw material also. But today, globally, there has been an impact on the March activity. We'll see it last or recover. And often in July, we get a clear view.

The next question comes from Veronique Meertens from Van Lanschot Kempen.

Three questions from my side. I was just wondering if there's been any discussions lately with the credit rating agency and how those are going regarding your -- the outlook at the moment?

Well, as you know, the decision early action of the rating, it's the responsibility of S&P. So as -- we have an annual meeting with S&P. It's a normal way for the discussion with S&P, so no special discussion with S&P.

Okay. That's good. And my second question is, is there any update or involvement in the discussions around the potential disposal of the remaining health care assets?

Yes. Well, there are no major news either to be shared today on this, but we stick to the plan and the strategy we've shared. So we have no intention to sell under unfavorable condition with a large discount. I think we could benefit from the positive vibes, I would say, on the market in this asset class, clearly, but we want to keep on doing what we did last year with the Italian portfolio, for example. This was a major deal managed in satisfying condition. So our objective remains gradual exit from our minority stake over the, more specifically, I'd say the first priority is focused on the most liquid assets that are, in my view, the Portuguese assets. Clearly, we had already some interest on those assets. And then after the residual portfolio in France and Italy. We will, of course, keep you posted as soon as we'll have something to share, but no major news to be shared today.

Okay. And then my last question is, I was a bit surprised to see the negative like-for-like on the logistics segment despite that occupancy remains pretty stable year-on-year. I appreciate that there's some negative indexation linked to it. But could you give some figures around that to get a bit of a feeling what it exactly consists of?

Yes, that's exactly true. Thanks for highlighted that. There are negative like-for-like on light industrial, why it was positive on the office, thanks to the relating of the. But on light industrial, a double effect, a negative indexation effect due to the fact that most of the leases are linked to ICC on the light industry on premises. This indexation effect was roughly minus 1%. And on top of that, we had an impact on departure, I mean on the day-to-day business, I would say, that on the Q1 was minus 3%. So you have also to have in mind that we are talking figures. So every time you have on the daily basis, usual departure, you can wind on some percentage points this is the double effect coming from negative indexation from the ICC and expected departure.

The next question comes from Jonathan Kownator from GS.

Two, if I may, please. One, you talked about briefly construction costs. Can you just help us understand what you've seen in terms of increase of construction cost over the last sort of 1.5 months? And the second question, I think you were highlighting a renewal with a government agency from a leasing perspective. Can you help us understand the sort of renewal condition in the sense what was the reversion? And then how much incentives you had to add on top of the reversion?

Okay. Jonathan, thanks for your question. Well, the first one, honestly, on construction costs, too early today to crystallize anything and see anything in the discussion we had. The main question mark is what we expect in the months to go, clearly. But today, we haven't seen yet any major impact. So clearly, too early. And...

And so whether are you factoring for the next month?

Sorry, I didn't get you.

What are you expecting for the next month then in terms of construction costs?

We are running several scenarios, many options are on the table, but...

What is the base case?

Pardon?

What is the base case?

We see -- today, what I say is the base case in which we are able to reaffirm the guidance clearly. But there are several scenarios that are plausible depending on the potential evolution on inflation, clearly. On your second question regarding the renewal on the. It was relet on the existing condition for a 6 year from duration with the Ministry of Interior. So it's on the 30,000 square meters. So this is a 6-year term lease with no break option, with an usual amount of incentives, so no specifically large incentive, crystallizing the same level of rent than the historical existing one. So clearly, in our view, this is a very satisfactory transaction that still highlights the appeal of a La Defense area.

Sorry, just to come back on one new comment, this is usual incentives. I mean, the incentives I mean, depending on the districts exactly and appreciate some bills different than others, but some of the incentives can go to up to 40%, I mean, maybe not in, but what kind of incentives are we talking about here?

No, no. We're clearly definitely much less than that.

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Well, thank you all for attending the call. Looking forward to talking to you for the actual results soon, and have a good day. See you soon. Bye-bye.