IG Design Group plc (IGR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the IG Design Group Interim Results Webinar. First, we're going to play a prerecorded presentation. And after this, the management who are with us will answer your questions. [Operator Instructions]. This webinar is being recorded. We'll now play the presentation.

Good morning, and welcome to Design Group interim results. My name is Stewart Gilliland, and I'm the Executive Chair. Today, I'm joined by our CFO, Paul Bal; and also our Interim Chief Operating Officer, Lance Burn. So looking to the highlights of our results. First of all, our revenue is up 8%, and both divisions grew the revenue over this period. More importantly, our margins and profits are up. Working capital and net debt have been extremely well managed by the team, but still, we're not in a position yet to award an interim dividend. Moving on to customers, channels and products. We've got accelerating ordering to ensure availability. The retailers learned from last year, they need to have the stock within their system. And so we benefited from that by having an earlier phasing of the seasonal orders. We retained a very, very strong customer relationship across those key customers. We've done a lot of work in terms of catching up on pricing, which has improved our margins. Our sustainability credentials have been recognized once again by one of our major customers in Walmart, who've given us a Gigaton Guru award. In the Americas, our revenue is up by 7%, driven by strong seasonal sales. We've made excellent progress with our turnaround, which was witnessed by the Board when we visited a few weeks ago. We've improved our margins, and we're in the process of consolidating a number of sites with plans to go further, which Lance will reveal later in the presentation. And we've also now acquired 100% majority of the APP business. In the international business, our revenues were up 9%. Again, we've improved the mix, very strong margin improvement, redeveloped our product ranges, and we've had great progress with our Eco products and innovations. And we're delighted to see that Eco Nature is extending its distribution in the U.K. as we go into 2023. On the senior team, having gone through a very lengthy and robust process, Paul Bal is now going to be appointed as CEO from April '23. We've had an orderly transition setup with Lance committing to the business until the end of October '23. And we're at a very advanced stage with the recruitment of a new head of the DGA business. Looking to the full year '23, we have a very strong order book. The refinancing work will commence very shortly, and we're initiating a growth strategy in the new year. We expect to deliver adjusted profit ahead of plan, but there remains a very uncertain backdrop. And so we're very cautious on the outlook going forward, but we've built a very strong foundation in the first 6 months of the year. I'll now hand over to Paul Bal, who'll take you through some of the details behind our first half year results.

Thank you, Stewart. I start with a summary of the overall financial performance on Slide 3, covering the 6 months to 30 September 2022. It's a relief to report a positive story amidst so much uncertainty and volatility at both the macro and the microeconomic level. As Stewart said, the top line was up 8% or by 12% at constant currency, given the strength of the U.S. dollar against most currencies for a lot of this period. And it's all organic. There are 2 main drivers of this increase in revenue. First, we have experienced marked, accelerated ordering by many of our customers ahead of Christmas 2022. Many of you will recall that this time last year, supply chains were experiencing significant stresses around the availability and cost of sea freight. This put at risk the all-important availability of seasonal products in retail at Christmas 2021. Our retail customers, anxious to avoid that experience, have ordered earlier this year and sought to secure product sooner than they would traditionally. Whilst this meant us carrying higher working capital earlier than normal, as Lance will explain, we have managed to successfully service our customers under this new paradigm. This has front-loaded this year's results delivery. Second, as you well know, this business suffered severe margin and profit degradation last year as it was unable to secure appropriate pricing despite encountering severe cost headwinds predominantly across sea freight and labor, and to a lesser degree, raw materials. Since then, we have sought to address that by securing catch-up pricing to start restoring our margins. This was the case everywhere, but most so in the Americas division, as it had fallen behind the most. What this revenue picture masks, however, is our pulling out of unprofitable or very marginal business in the Americas, so as to better focus our resources and efforts. More on that later. Besides pricing, we have also mitigated some of the continuing effects of persistently high inflation through cost reduction initiatives. Again, especially so in the Americas business, where Lance and his team continue to complete the integration of the various businesses acquired over recent years. However, the other key tool that we have utilized is more effective margin management through the redevelopment of our product ranges and offers where pricing isn't able to do the job alone or just isn't a possibility. While freight costs aren't the issue that they were last year, we see continued labor cost inflation. But the main new development has been the significant rise in energy costs since the Ukraine invasion in February this year. This affects us in 2 ways: first, through increasing our direct cost for manufacturing of running our facilities and transportation; but even more importantly, it impacts our input costs, whether raw materials such as paper and polypropylene or the plastic and paper-based finished goods that we source to sell on. Against this backdrop, our concerted efforts have driven the over 16% growth in adjusted EBITDA, almost back to the 2021 peak and the almost 35% rise in adjusted profit before tax, again, almost back to the 2021 high. The combination of inflation and input costs and the accelerated business cycle meant us initially carrying higher working capital earlier in the period compared to last year. But this then dropped to below last year's levels despite having higher inflation. This is a result of our teams tightly managing their balance sheets. Whilst net debt is higher than in the past due to last year's performance, it is markedly below our expectations. So not only did this allow the group to operate comfortably within its banking facilities covenants, it also meant that we could mitigate the impact of rising interest rates. Slide 4 is a reminder of the shape of our business seen through various category lenses. Firstly, through the lens of product categories. Whilst the mix has been broadly stable, it is especially pleasing to see Craft & creative play grow again after its post-COVID-19 decline. This comes ahead of our expectations and is welcome due to its relatively high margin. Similarly, it was good to see strong growth in Stationery. But it's when you look through the seasonal lens that the acceleration of the seasonal business orders and sales is very apparent. If we now go to the profit and loss account on Slide 5. It's pleasing to see that both divisions, the Americas and international, contributed to the reported top line increase of 8%, being 7% and 9% ahead, respectively. They both also contributed to the adjusted operating profit growth in both absolute and margin terms, as the table on the right shows. As I already mentioned, continued cost increases have been addressed through a combination of catch-up pricing and product and range development to recoup margins. This resulted in a 40 basis points improvement in the gross profit margin to 16.6%. And further down the profit and loss account, it led to a very strong 120 basis points increase in adjusted operating profit margin to 5.9%. This represented a 35% rise. Given the translational drag on our results of a strong dollar, the constant currency growth in revenues and profits is much higher than that reported with revenue up 12% and adjusted operating profit up 44%. Overhead levels were broadly flat, a considerable achievement in the light of persistently high labor cost inflation. Correspondingly, adjusted EBITDA was up 16%. Adjusting items contributed a net $4.6 million credit to profit before tax or $6 million to EBITDA. Besides the usual amortization of acquired intangibles, these are the combination of a restructuring gain in DG Americas as a surplus site was sold in Kansas and various insurance recoveries from past acquisition, representation and warranties as well as from the 2020 cyber attack. The higher finance charges reflects the impact of the higher net debt levels already mentioned, coupled with rising rates. The higher tax charge reflects the higher profit, the changing mix of these across the countries in which we operate as the U.S. recover strongly and disallowable head office costs. Turning now to Slide 6. If we now look at how the underlying or adjusted operating profits evolved over the 6 months period in a waterfall, we can better understand and visualize the impact of the different drivers that led to the improved profits and margins. The value gain from the catch-up pricing was a significant driver. This was partially offset by lower volumes, especially where we exited unprofitable or low-margin contracts and relationships, notably in the Americas business. This is an essential part of better focusing that organization on sustainable, profitable business. The accelerated ordering and fulfillment of seasonal business was a welcome boost to the period's results, but it really should be considered to be a matter of timing shift between the 2 halves as it distorts our half year split. However, the impact of the cost headwinds remains by far the biggest influence on our results. This is notwithstanding the pressure shifting from sea freight to energy and inputs and with labor costs remaining high throughout. But on the positive, what is also very apparent in this chart is the significant contribution coming from the various turnaround initiatives that Lance and the team have embarked on in the Americas business since earlier in the year. He will touch on those after I finish with the financials. There was a translational foreign exchange headwind resulting from the strong U.S. dollar. Last year, we benefited from writing back share scheme costs due to the poor performance of the group. This year, we are financing the establishment of the new LTIP scheme launched in August this year. Finally, a factor in Other are higher reward costs, reflecting continued wage and salary inflation as well as now accruing bonuses likely as a result of the improved delivery. Turning now to the cash flow on Slide 7. Clearly, higher profits should mean that less cash was consumed during this period, and it was and even less than was expected. And this benefits our interest charges as we have already seen. Due to the cyclicality of our seasonal business model, around this time, we are at peak working capital requirements and financing. This is illustrated in more detail in the box on the lower table on the right of the slide. Of course, inflation raises values, and so it does not properly reflect the benefit gained from managing the balance sheet more tightly and actually reducing working capital levels compared to last year. Further down the statement, you will see the outflows associated with acquiring the minority shares in the APP business in the Americas at the start of this period and also acquiring a to fund the new LTIP share scheme. With this, I thank you, and now I hand over to Lance.

Thank you, Paul. Design Group Americas FY '23 Half 1 revenues have advanced 7% year-on-year, of which seasonal is plus 12% and now accounts for 70% of Design Group Half 1 revenues. Retail partners have sought to ensure seasonal product availability by accelerating both offshore shipments and domestic fulfillment so avoiding a potential recurrence of the delays experienced in FY '22 on account of post COVID disruption to sea freight and labor availability. Leveraging our relationships with key retail partners to ensure early robust supply chain programming of both third-party vendors and our in-house manufacturing is now delivering accelerated year-on-year, on time, in-full order fulfillment, so advancing invoicing and cash receipts. By example, better year-on-year programming and much higher productivity from our U.S.A. gift wrap factory in Byhalia, Mississippi, enabled completion of FY '23 seasonal manufacturing 6 weeks ahead of FY '22. And by end October '22, has successfully dispatched 42% more product year-on-year to our lead customer, Walmart. In what remains a buoyant employment market with the U.S.A. recently posting in excess of 10.5 million job vacancies, our strategy of responding to market competitive pay rates has delivered a more stable employment base of fewer, yet better caliber manufacturing associates, so powering year-on-year productivity improvements. Everyday Craft sales are stabilizing on account of normalized consumer purchases following the heights of the COVID-induced sales spike experienced in 2021. Total Everyday year-on-year volume sales are softening on account of reduced consumer affordability and demand and is partly offset by successful midyear price increases completing the pricing mitigation of supply chain inflation. More generally and within a collaborative framework with key customers, the USA business has continued to selectively implement catch up price increases across all categories and channels to contribute to the continuing restoration of gross margins, cognizant also of continuing cost inflation. In FY '23 quarter 1, the business also concluded the free wholesale of our Manhattan, Kansas site, having successfully consolidated sewing pattern-printing onto one site in calendar 2021. In addition, DG Americas acquired the remaining 49% of our JV, Anker Play Products, following the exercise of a put option and subsequent orderly retirement of our partner. We have strengthened the local management of this business that continues to perform as expected. ESG and sustainability increasingly feature in the U.S. market, and I'm delighted that in addition to our seasonal Vendor of the Year award earlier this year, Walmart has since awarded DG Americas with Gigaton Guru status in recognition of the decarbonization measures and ecologically friendly product innovations introduced by the business within the Walmart supply chain. DG Americas continues to work with the winners as Walmart '22 quarter 3 revenues advanced 9% year-on-year, driven by consumers seeking value and relief from cost of living increases. As already reported, the turnaround of DG Americas is progressing well and with gathering pace. The organization changes introduced in April, May '22 are settled and performing very well, supported by a comprehensive 3-month long series of strategy alignment workshops involving the senior leadership team of over 40. The substantial headcount savings also derived in excess of $6 million constitutes an important component of rightsizing the business and profit recovery. It is refreshing to witness a far more coordinated and collaborative cross-function approach to addressing both internal and external challenges. The launch of the DG Americas cultural 4Ps program, focusing on our core values of people with purpose acting with passion and pace, designed to engender agility, is now cascaded throughout the organization, using innovative video communication tools and virtual CEO Town Hall gatherings and Q&A to ensure relevance, momentum and the consistent tone from the top. The reprogramming of the DG Americas business, focusing on simplification, efficiency and margin, is also demonstrably cascading throughout the organization and is fueling recovery. An early focus of simplification has been the identification and cleansing of slow moving and underperforming Everyday SKUs. But materially, using this to radically reduce inventory replenishment whilst maintaining customer service levels in excess of 98%. Everyday inventory purchase order replenishment has been reduced year-to-date 46% year-on-year, also resulting in 545 less 40-foot inbound containers. Combined, this reduces FY '23 working capital expenditure by circa $40 million, so greatly contributing to overall reduced debt and the accompanying financing costs. The subsequent decluttering and reduction in warehouse and distribution space requirements allows us to further consolidate sites, now planned for early FY '24. New information providing capabilities aligned to the new organization arrangements are enabling a more forensic and informed approach to better category architecture and product development for ease of manufacturing and sourcing and so engineering margin enhancement. The end-to-end streamlining of commercial and operations processes is yielding FY '23 year-on-year supply chain efficiency savings in the region of $8 million with the full year effect cascading into FY '24. DG Americas has also removed in the region of $38 million nonprofitable seasonal business year-on-year. So further simplifying supply chains, reducing complexity and improving the margin mix. This includes loss-making programs with both Dollar General and Hobby Lobby. Cognizant of the 2021 supply chain issues from the Far East, the emerging geopolitical and continuing COVID challenges, specifically regarding China, and our belief in and support of decarbonization, we continue a process of both reshoring and near-shoring. DGA will install bag manufacturing capability in our Byhalia facility mid-2023, emulating capabilities already existing in Wales, thereby enabling an in-house made in America for turnkey gift packaging solutions, comprising roll wrap, ribbon, bows and bags. We also continue to forge and accelerate new partnerships in Mexico, and we'll be nearshoring from there in 2023, a range of category solutions previously solely dependent on China vendors. And so to DG International. The DGI businesses comprising the U.K., the Netherlands and Australia continue to prove resilient, with favorable mix and again, negotiating price increases and pivoting product architecture and design helping to mitigate continuing supply side inflationary challenges, not least arising from the humanitarian crisis that is Ukraine. Our U.K. and European businesses particularly recognize the acute cost of living challenges to consumers and employees alike. And we are working with all stakeholders to innovate remedies to include measures to help our employees. FY '23 half 1 year-on-year revenue has advanced 9%, as with DGA, also driven by an acceleration of seasonal deliveries designed to avoid supply-side delays so damaging to retailers in Christmas '21. All businesses have continued to design, manufacture and deliver on-time, in-full. And despite, as you may recall, we reported in June a highly disruptive January to April '22 strike at UPM, one of the world's leading paper manufacturers that was particularly challenging for our U.K. and European businesses. Our retail partners also value our wholly owned sourcing and manufacturing capabilities in both Hong Kong and China that continue to perform admirably and remarkably, now 3 years on from the onset of COVID operating virtually throughout. All DGI businesses continue to work with the winners, too, who are advancing their market share in respective markets. By example, the Dutch-based discounter retailer, Action, continues to expand across Continental Europe, now active in over 10 countries. Action's store growth at 15% CAGR since 2017 to 2,200 rooftops benefits our Netherlands businesses based in Hoogeveen and Rotterdam, where our corresponding 6-year growth in Action is 25% CAGR. Protecting the environment and responding with truly sustainable solutions are prominent in both U.K. and Europe. Our U.K. Eco Nature brand of gift packaging and greetings products is unique, crucially differentiating from less environmentally compelling competitive solutions and is displacing historically dominant white label solutions. Eco Nature combines category brand criteria of 100% made from recycled materials, entirely U.K. in-house manufactured, that all of our competitors lack; plastic-free and fully recyclable; and in conjunction with our partners, The Woodland Trust, is fully carbon offset. Early 2023 Everyday trials and Christmas '23 listings in Sainsbury's is adding to current main fixture all year around distribution in Tescos. And growing availability in all U.K. leading independents mean more U.K. consumers could experience Eco Nature and fully participate in this unique, guilt-free, 100% sustainable gift packaging participant to the circular economy. Our forthcoming investments in the states enables a made in America Eco Nature solution viable in FY '24 half 2. Our Netherlands business is introducing their innovative Smartwrap solution to FY '24 and complementing and enhancing the DG U.K. roll wrap plastic-free solution already featuring across the entire Sainsbury's Christmas '22 roll wrap category for the second year in succession. I'll now hand over to Stewart.

Thank you to Lance and Paul for their insights behind our half year results. So in summary, we've had an excellent start to full year '23 with the accelerating ordering from our key customers. The capture pricing and product redevelopment played a key part in allowing us to recover our margins. We've made great progress on the DG Americas turnaround, strong working capital and net debt management, and we now have increasing clarity on the senior leadership of the organization. And we then move forward and look to the outlook, the Board remains cautious given present economic backdrop and uncertainties. Our half year performance and latest forecast should return the group to a small profit ahead of previous expectations. A strong full year '23 order book confirms continued customer loyalty. We have further opportunities in the DG Americas turnaround plan, which Lance has referenced. We'll have a growth-focused strategy to build upon and make a more resilient business as we go into next year. Our aspiration remains to reinstate dividends as and when we can. Thank you very much for watching and taking the interest in our business.

And now Paul Bal, CFO; and Lance Burn, Interim COO, will take your questions. [Operator Instructions]. And the first question here is, Craft has bounced back following a post-COVID slide. Do you think this category is now stable?

The bulk of our Craft & creative play sales take place over in the Americas business. Maybe I can ask Lance, if you could comment on how you think you see the category evolving, given that it's now stabilizing and in fact growing?

The short answer is yes. When we talk with our key customers who participate in that category, so that would include Joann, Hobby Lobby, Walmart, they believe that the run rates are now stabilized. And broadly, have got back to performance levels that we would recognize pre-COVID after the hiatus of the crafting phenomenon as people, obviously, were in lockdown. So yes, I can see the run rate stable now.

And how are you being impacted by the current situation in China?

Not greatly because we're obviously overreliant in terms of shipments, both on a domestic and FOB basis for Seasons, which is mainly Christmas, and that's long since been on the water. And in America, particularly, we've been going through and continue to go through a process of deinventory. So there are a few shipments which are delayed, but nothing that's material for the time being. But the COVID situation is obviously dynamic. And I would expect that it will remain so throughout the next calendar year, one [ check ] form or another. So with our partner, retailers, we are making the necessary plans. We are advanced year-on-year in terms of specifying category requirements and placing orders in a timely fashion.

And what are your expectations around the path of raw material costs over the next 12 to 24 months?

That is a good question. And for the first time in many years, I suppose there are regional dynamics at work. Certainly, in Europe, the crisis in the Ukraine is having a detrimental impact on gas prices. And that's a main component of raw material manufacturing -- and paper, for instance, is a high energy-consumptive manufacturing process. So we're keeping a watchful eye on that. In the States, by contrast, energy prices are significantly reduced and more stable because the American market is broadly self-reliant on fracking or natural gas, by example. And in fact, gas prices right now, kilowatt/hour, are 1/6 of what we will be paying for here in the U.K. and Europe. So it gives you an idea of the magnitude of the difference in that. I suppose the other factor will be the recessionary influences in most of the western economies. And as demand falls away even if it's only modest, that will have an effect on supply and demand, which may fall back into balance. But I don't expect to see any short-term collapse in pricing in raw materials, I would just see them moderating over time.

[Operator Instructions]. We have another couple already submitted. Is restructuring of debt likely to include issuance of new shares?

Thank you. That's not the current plan. What we're looking to do is to refinance our bank debt. Those of you that have been tracking the situation would have seen that early last summer, we amended and extended our existing banking facilities. And we took the opportunity to reduce the level of the facilities that we were seeking. What we have found in the last 6 months of trading is that through some really good work that's been done across the board, both in the U.S. but also in the international business, we have been able to manage the working capital levels of this business to a lower level than previously thought. And that's brought down our net debt requirements over this period as well. So as we now sort of enter a cycle where we look to refinance the business, we will be taking the opportunity to probably bring down even further our debt requirements. But to be clear, it is debt financing that we're looking at. There's no intention to be raising any further shares. I think I would also remind everybody that the financing that we have is really to finance the working capital cycle of this business. This business is pretty well financed, and we've got pretty stable sort of CapEx requirements. And we're able to plan those and work within our constraints. So the working capital is really what's being financed by the financing.

Paul, can you talk about the future strategy? You mentioned growth focused. But is there any more detail you can give to us?

Sure. Back in June when we reported the fiscal '22 results, we talked then about taking a very near-term strategic approach. And that is what I would really sort of call a Stage 1 sort of our strategy, and that was really all about turning around the business, particularly in the U.S. and restoring the margins that had been lost, particularly over the previous year. And really at Stage 1, getting back to a pre-COVID fiscal '20 sort of margin profile. That's the work that we've embarked on. And as we shared in the presentation, a considerable amount of progress has been made, especially in the U.S. and that's obviously translating through in the progress that we're seeing in the margins in both divisions. However, we still have work to do to get to those pre-COVID levels that we're chasing. And as we announced back in June, the expectation is that we should get there at some point in fiscal '25. So that's sort of stage 1. It's about turnaround and restoration of margin. Phase 2, and this is what we were referring to now in the presentation, is really looking beyond that. And it's really about, well, where does the business go from there, having turned around the business, having restored margins, what's the runway after that? How do we grow this business? And that is really then about growing the margins beyond where they were back in fiscal '20. And here, our aspirations are significant. Since the acquisition of the businesses in the U.S., 70% of our sales are in the U.S. And that's an incredibly deep consumer market and one that we really are not reaching anything close to full potential in terms of exploiting. And so consequently, it's right that we begin to turn our attention having made progress on the turnaround, to start looking at what comes next. So we'll be kickstarting an exercise early in the new calendar year, which will begin to sort of understand better the capabilities, the USP of our organization and the power of our people and the creative talents that we have and really look to leverage that and grow the business further, and particularly so in the U.S. Now as a sort of an indicator of sort of what's ahead, if we look at the margins across the 2 businesses today, you will see that DGA, the Americas, lags behind the experience of DG International. Now when you look at it from a consumer perspective, you would anticipate it being the opposite in that the margins that we're earning in the U.S. should be greater than what's been earned in international. And that certainly will be one of the aspirations that we take into this exercise as we set out sort of our plan for the coming years.

And container shipping costs have fallen sharply in the last 6 months. How significant is this in relation to future margin expansion -- margin expectations?

Lance, maybe do you want to just start by just sort of sharing sort of what we see in terms of the data with container rates? And then I can then sort of pick up on sort of what that means in terms of the financials.

Yes. So yes, container rates are falling and quite sharply right now. It's been a journey through FY '22 of escalating freight rate prices, which hit half 2, and that's where America didn't respond and caused the issues that we've been addressing. And FY '23 has been the reverse of that. So half 1 experiencing the same freight rates as half 2 FY '22 and then now relaxing. So if you look year-on-year, in terms of the effect of rates, there's been a slight relaxation year-on-year. Our container expenditure has come down not just because of pricing, but also because of reduced usage, as I mentioned, significant removal of inventory inbound for the U.S.A. Going forward, there's an expectation that freight rates will firm slightly as we go into the calendar new year. The shipping companies are taking remedial action to fortify their margins. So we can see resting of ships and some removal of containers so to balance supply and demand. But we don't expect to see any return to the COVID levels, which were quite ruinous at the time. That is factoring into negotiations with retailers now who have line of sight of sea freight rates. So when it comes to domestic fulfillment on Seasonal, that will factor into the normal negotiating cycle. As far as Everyday is concerned where we are the named importer and then we actually store and order pick and ship to retailers -- and we envisage that we will be able to protect our margins and benefit from the decline in the sea freight rates. And the way we amortize sea freight rates into our inventory -- and that is linked into the number of turns per year. So as we move forward over the next several months, the decline in sea freight rate will benefit our margins accordingly. And we try and keep that opaque from our key customers.

So yes. So overall, in terms of sort of financials, I think Lance just answered my question. It's really -- yes, we are seeing a benefit in the profit and loss account emerging from the reduction in freight rates, and we should see that into sort of the coming months.

And could you indicate what's being done to avoid a repeat of the problems experienced in half 2 full year '22? Is it just a mixture of cost and demand? And with the current order book and price hikes, you can rule a repeat out?

Yes, I mean, more fundamental has been the restructuring of the American business. So complete 180-degree juxtaposition with focus on margin. And that we've now got very clear accountabilities through 6 category general managers, all of whom report to the [ CCA. ] And we have new information tools that we've put in place that give those respective general managers and their teams real-time visibility of input costs and margins. So the defense is actually foresight and then responding accordingly, whether it's pricing, product reengineering, a combination of both. So I'm very confident that the measures now in place in the organizational arrangements will prevent a recurrence. Bearing in mind that DGI never experienced that in the first place because they did anticipate the inbound inflation and did respond accordingly. So in many regards, the resilience that we've now put into the Americas business emulates that which already existed in the DGI businesses.

Yes. I think this is all good, and it gives us a lot more assurance in terms of our resilience to be able to address some of the challenges that perhaps we've seen in the past. But there's no guarantee, of course. These things come out of left field from time to time. But we would like to think that the work that's gone into the DGA organization has made the organization more resilient. It's made it more agile, and it's given it a far better early warning system than it had previously. Part of this was also a reflection of the cyclicality of our business that if events happen after we've locked pricing, it's very hard to then get that back. So it's important to sort of understand the pricing that we're reporting through in this set of results. A lot of that is really a catch-up of what we should have achieved last year.

And what's the percentage of product being produced in China?

Well, that varies by region. In America, in total, we're purchasing around $450 million worth of goods. So that gives you a good indicator. In America, it will be approximately 65%. By contrast, Hoogeveen, in the north of Holland, That will be only 8% of its revenue. So it varies depending on the categories being served, but our own in-house manufacturing focuses on our core competencies of gift packaging in all territories.

Yes. So broadly speaking, if you look at it from an overall sort of group perspective, we have about a 70-30 split. We manufacture about 30% of what we sell. 70% of it is sourced. And of that 70%, as Lance said, a significant proportion of that in the sort of 90-ish sort of percent is China sourced.

And a more basic question. How exactly does the invoicing work? Are you receiving the cash once the product leaves your production site or inventories? Are there any delays? And if so, how long are they on average?

You want to talk through -- I was going to say, Lance, you want to talk through the 3 models that we have and then I can pick up on timing?

Yes. I mean so there will be different credit terms with regard to different customers is the general answer. But we have different models. So we will work on an FOB or a DI, direct import model, whereby we invoice at the time of bill of lading. And that means, therefore, the shipping costs are borne by the retailer. And then the credit terms will be invoked. So with a customer, it may be 60 days, and we'll be paid long before that merchandise actually hits their warehouse. Domestic will be ship on dispatch from either factory gate collection or we deliver. And it literally depends on the arrangements that we've got with different customers and different channels. So if we're going to the independents, say, in the U.K., which would be wholesale distributors and independent retailers, they will have very, short, short credit terms; with the large grocers, probably longer credit terms.

And one of the hallmarks of our business, of course, and our approach of working with the winners is that our sales ledger is very highly skewed towards big retailers, blue-chip retailers. So consequently, sort of the risk of sort of credit default is relatively small for us. As Lance said, obviously, there's a spectrum of smaller customers, particularly in the independent chains where we obviously have to keep a far closer eye and we do. And so far, we're monitoring the situation, particularly in the independents. And at the moment, there's nothing material that is causing us concern.

Can you discuss your plans for capital allocation over the next couple of years?

Yes, sure. As I said earlier, the group is pretty well capitalized. So our financing requirements tend to be timing around the working capital cycle. Our historic capital expenditure levels have been pretty consistent with depreciation. So been in sort of high single digit, sometimes sort of breaking the sort of the $10 million level. We don't foresee any significant move outside of that paradigm. Yes, there is a sort of -- there will be CapEx requirements in terms of sort of upgrading machinery or building new capabilities in some of our locations. But we should be able to operate within the paradigm that we've been operating in for the last few years of sort of high single-digit low double-digit capital expenditure. So that's the main sort of capital allocation as far as the business is concerned. Obviously, the other aspect to this is dividends. And as we mentioned in the presentation, the Board has the aspiration to reinstate the dividend as soon as it feels confident of being able to sort of reintroduce it and sustain it. We don't feel that at this point in time sort of looking at the uncertainty over the coming sort of months ahead, that the time is appropriate to be reinstating the dividend.

And Joules was a customer. Will there be any bad debt from its recent bankruptcy?

No. No, we work for a partner distributor and they have 100% of the liability.

And that's the end of questions. So many thanks, Paul and Lance. And to everyone listening, you'll now be taken to a web page to give feedback on today's presentation. If you're unable to do it now, you'll receive a follow-up e-mail. We'd be really grateful if you could take a few minutes to complete. Many thanks for joining. This is the end of the webinar.

Thank you.