Imerys S.A. (NK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 7, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Alessandro Dazza
executiveSo good afternoon to all of you here present here and present on our webcast. Thank you for joining me, joining us with my team to this 2022 Capital Market Day, the first one for me and the first one after the world has changed. 2019 was the last time. And I think quite a lot has happened. Here, you see a lot of smiling faces. I can guarantee to you, all of them are in reality, very nervous. But they will do their best to tell you their stories. A few words with the agenda. In the initial part, I would like to give you a bit the vision of where we want to take this company. Sébastien will give you the numbers attached to this vision. And Leah will tell you why this fits very well in our overarching ESG commitment. It is part of it. And that's why we wanted to present it all together. We will then open the session to your questions. So please keep them for the end of the first part. The second part of the day, I was unsure what to tell you. Last time, we presented every single business and the potential. I assume that you know Imerys by now. So I think it could have been boring to tell you again what we do every day, what each -- our business, great businesses are. So I said, "How can we convince you that the story in the first part, it is true, it will become true and the numbers attached to it will become real," is we're trying to take examples that will allow this company to deliver more than expectations, more than underlying markets. So these are snapshots of the great potential that you find in each of our businesses. The business is good. But on top of it, there are some very nice potentialities that you will hear. So if you allow me to start, this morning, I changed a little bit my presentation. I took a slide from the very end and I brought it forward. Why? Because I said, "This one is what we could call an executive summary." With these one, two slides, you really have the message of the day. This new company, what are we going to do with it? And that's why I call it a new Imerys, welcome to new Imerys. This company has changed. This company is changing. And that's what I would like to convince you today. And I start with what I heard when I came in 2020. And most of it comes from you, it's verbatim, it's analysts, it's investors, it's what I heard. This company is lacking growth, organic growth. This company is significant exposure to structurally declining markets, typically paper, graphic paper. I heard very complex to understand. We don't understand the model. I see some of you smiling because I'm sure you read your words. Relies on acquisition to grow, over the last 20 years, 0 organic growth, only acquisitions. Losing market shares, of course, as underlying markets grow and we don't grow, by definition, we lose market share. High exposure to cyclical markets, for instance, iron and steel. And today, when walking in, somebody even mentioned Imerys is a pushover, dusty. Well, all of this is gone. And this is the message I'm bringing to you. We are entering a new phase, a new Imerys. We are putting this behind. We have transformed in 2019 internally first to be more efficient, more dynamic, more customer-centric and market-oriented. With consequences, we have started gaining market share. 2021, every quarter-on-quarter, we published better figures than competitors, better figures than underlying markets. And it is continuing as we talk. We are now positioned on underlying growing markets. And we will go in detail on each of them, but all of our markets today are growing, thanks, of course, to the recent announced divestiture. They are not closed, not completed. But they will clearly reposition this company on a different trajectory. We are ideally positioned to benefit from the changes this world is entering, the so-called mega trends: sustainability, mobile energy, sustainable energy, consumer goods, natural resources against plastics and chemicals and oil. That's exactly where Imerys plays a big role. We have simplified. And you will see today three markets. Construction, consumer goods and the world of, I would say, sustainable energy will drive our future, very simple, almost 1/3 each, so very easy to learn where we are going. And last, we've made sustainability at the heart of our strategy. And we are a leader. And we don't compare ourselves to peers because it's too easy. We compare ourselves to the best-in-class companies in the world. And that's what we want to achieve. Because we are already a leader in this industry, and we are the best mineral -- specialty minerals company in the world. So now you've heard the story. So who wants to go back to work, is free to go. Otherwise, you can continue listening to the story. What is Imerys? This one you know. We do specialty minerals. We serve a multitude of industry on the right of this slide. I will not enter into detail, I think you know by now. On the left, you have 2021 figures with the old perimeter, it's before divestiture. And you know that this year, we are probably targeting sales above EUR 5 billion. And we confirmed our guidance of EUR 810 million, EUR 840 million EBITDA in the all perimeter. Sébastien will give you later on a picture on what it means post divestiture. It was and it continues to be a winning business model. Why? Number one, minerals are essential to our lives, to your life, to our society. Everything around us has touched one of our minerals, the cables, the battery in this machine, the wood, the steel, the paint on the walls, the sinks and the tiles in the bathroom, the juice that you drank outside, everything has gone by mineral. And within this, I would say, great industry, we are the leader. 75% of the businesses, we are #1. We enjoy a very strong, what we say, customer loyalty or stickiness. We are their partner for innovation. We are the biggest. So when they want to develop something, who do you call? Imerys. 8 new products last year, I don't know yet how many this year, I will tell you at the end of the year, but we are their partner. We are everywhere geographically and in terms of application. And we represent typically a small part of their cost. And therefore, we do have and enjoy normally a strong cost balance, cost/pricing balance as we normally say. And last, as I already said, we're the reference for the industry but also for our customers in terms of sustainability. And I can tell you today, more and more, it's playing a role. Our customers [ pretend ] from their suppliers and therefore, from us, the best track record in sustainability, then the price. But today, the game is changing. And Leah will give you a really good picture of what we are doing. All of this brings two great things, resilience. During COVID, to give you an example, we lost 1 percentage point of EBITDA. We recovered it 12 months later. We sailed through the inflation. We sailed through 2008/2009. This business is resilient and is profitable, 16%, 17%, 18% EBITDA for the last 20 years. And now we'll move to growth. What I just said is what you might know from Imerys. Now I'll lead you to what we will be tomorrow. We have transformed -- this is a slide from the 2019 Capital Markets Day, where we said we will be more efficient, EUR 100 million savings delivered 1 year earlier. We will focus on markets, done. We will regain market shares, done. So we have a good track record of execution. So we have transformed internally. And here, you have some verbatim from customers. They confirm it: ease of doing business with Imerys, the partner of choice, innovation, satisfaction. So today, our customers confirm. And you will be one -- you will see a video with one of them, that I'm sure you'll know very well, live, telling exactly what I'm telling you. The second step was to transform also in terms of portfolio. And that's what we have been doing in the last 12 months. You remember, we sold some Australian kaolin. We sold last year some paper activities in the U.S. We have done two large divestitures this year. Why? We have analyzed our portfolio. And here on the left of the slide, you see the main businesses. All of them are good. But two of them specifically, we have decided, do not fit what we want Imerys to be tomorrow. First of all, paper and board -- rather paper, graphic paper, it is a historically declining market. The last time paper production was growing was 2007. For the last 15 years, this market has been dropping, 5% to 7% year-on-year. It needs to be managed. We did it well. It can be profitable. We did it well. But is that where we want to be in the future? The answer is no. We've signed an agreement. We are in the process of closing the deal. We will divest all our assets or most of our assets serving the graphic paper market. The second one is the High Temperature Solutions. Again, a good business but different. It's the only one downstream, no mining activities, no barriers to entry and cyclical, very dependent from the iron and steel, big swings in production. We have signed in July a deal to divest it, which we should be closing by the end of the year. So what is Imerys today? It's a pure specialty minerals player. It is on growing markets only. It will further benefit from these mega trends and by definition, is less cyclical. Is it noncyclical at all? No, it would be a lie. Because the economy has some cyclicity by definition. But we are significantly less cyclical than ever. And to show you how we transformed, you see here the typical pie that we normally use when we present our quarterly results. You have been seeing it throughout the year. We have sold the paper assets, or we are selling the paper assets. We will be selling most of our iron and steel exposure. And that's what we will look like: construction, consumer goods and a big chunk relating to automotive, mobility and energy. And I put them together because automotive today is really moving into a green mobility. Not only we supply products for the lithium-ion batteries, and there will be a specific focus on it, but we also supply many minerals in the automotive industry that help cars becoming lighter, more ecological, less consumption. And therefore, indirectly, we will profit from this overall trend. And you see it very well on this slide. Almost 80%, 85% of all our businesses will be oriented on not only growing markets, but on top of it, enjoying these mega trends, construction and especially sustainable construction. We will deep dive on it. Consumer goods and especially natural solutions for consumer goods, replacing oil and plastic chemicals, we'll deep dive on it. And of course, the world of green mobility and energy, which is a key focus of our developments. There is a small part that is not green. It's not bad, industry and equipment, but it is more, I would say, a typical GDP. If the industry -- if the economy goes well, we will grow with GDP. Because typically, this part is a GDP-related business. If I put -- and that's a key, if I put all these markets together, their underlying growth plus what we will deliver more because this company will grow above underlying markets, we are convinced, in numbers we'll show you later, that we can grow 3% to 5% annual in average in the future. This is the new Imerys. And here, you see some of these developments that will bring our growth and move it beyond the underlying markets. Lithium-ion batteries and lightweighting on vehicles, I don't enter in detail because it will be a dedicated section. Sustainable construction, we are offering new solutions to people that need to decarbonize the construction industry, a major challenge for this industry. And many small but really many applications where chemicals are being replaced by natural resources in everything relating to consumers, being board against plastic, being cosmetics, pharma, food, agriculture. And last, 2 weeks ago, we have announced a great project to extract lithium in France, in the central part of France, a project called EMILI. It will not deliver within the time horizon of this Capital Market Day that we have taken as 3 years. So it's there to remind you the untapped potential of this company. And there would be more around lithium at the end of this presentation of this day. But it's still important to keep in mind that we are ready for an incredible potential there even if it will not be quantified '22 until '25. So let me summarize. Imerys was and remains a resilient and very profitable business, delivering typically great performance. We have transformed since 2019 until today, first, internally, efficiency, customer-centric. We have been growing above the market. And we have regained -- partly regained what we have lost. And now we are accelerating. We are on the good markets. And on top of these good markets, we have great ideas and great projects, which are not dreams because they are being built or implemented, and you will see later, that will allow us to grow at a faster pace. We will continue to generate cash. It's always been a strong plus of this company. We will continue to generate cash. We will need it to support our expansion projects. We will have proceeds from the recent announced divestiture, which will allow also to continue doing M&A, which is in the DNA of this company, 80 acquisitions in the last 20 years. So yes, we will continue. Organic growth will be a pillar. M&A will continue to be a pillar. Innovation, we're putting a lot more money because our customers are asking us. And last, as I said, sustainability is a part of the business, is a part of the strategy. There is no business without sustainability. And therefore, we see it as a duty for ourselves but also to help our customers. Because we have solutions that will help the planet to decarbonize. And we have taken this as a mission. So thank you for this first part. Now next to my many words, we'll try to put some numbers, which I'm sure you'll be very interested to listen to. Sébastien?
Sébastien Rouge
executiveThank you, Alessandro. Good afternoon to all of you. I would like to share with you how the recent track record of Imerys and the way we conduct business gives credibility to Imerys' new ambition. As shown in introduction, Imerys has successfully passed a fair amount of important steps in its strategic road map. We are now about to open a new chapter in our development. The group is set to be more profitable, more focused and more dynamic. More profitable with good progress we have made on the cost base and enhanced margin potential, I will come back to that. More focused, HTS and the assets serving paper are going out of the perimeter. We have also identified a fair amount of development CapEx opportunities in several selected areas. The one from green mobility, from sustainable construction and from natural solutions that fit with consumer goods will be shared with some of my colleagues today. We will simultaneously focus on growth and maintain a strict and balanced capital allocation policy. That's something we want to continue to commit a lot. Finally, the group will be more dynamic with an acceleration of organic growth and an ability to resume bolt-on acquisitions in the next coming future. If we step back now a few years and look at Imerys' model, we see that it has proved its resilience over a very volatile period. If we need a proof point, Imerys has quickly offset the negative effects of the crisis period -- the COVID crisis period in 2020. You remember that at the peak of the crisis, Q2 2020, with volumes down 25%, current EBITDA margin reached 14%. Quickly, it then went up to reach 16.6% on average in 2020. 2021 current EBITDA bounced back to the precrisis levels with a margin over 17% of sales. Another proof point is this year, through violent inflationary pressure, the group is able to increase its level of EBITDA generation with obviously some dilution if we look in percentage terms. What we consider as this remarkable achievement is due to a fair amount of points. And first of all, to the fundamentals of the group, our positioning as a supplier of specialty solutions, working towards very diversified markets and applications. But this achievement is also due to a fair amount of specific actions. And I wanted to give you some illustration of them. Two examples. First, on fixed cost and overhead, first of one is the positive effect of delayering that we have done in 2019 and 2020. Through our Connect & Shape program, we brought sustainable savings of around EUR 70 million per year. The other example is our COVID crisis mitigation plan. This demonstrates how the group is able to adjust its fixed cost, the flexibility enabled us to save close to EUR 90 million on fixed costs and overhead alone. You probably remember that we disclosed that with our 2020 accounts. It's interesting to note that some of the specific savings we have made have actually been perpetuated towards the normal life of our business. It means that we are able to conduct one-off actions. But we are also able to drive recurring actions down the road that will contribute to profitability through variable costs and through top line. We have two main continuous improvement programs within Imerys: I-Cube is about industrial excellence; and STEP, which is about purchasing and supply chain improvement. Both of them do improve our cost base year-on-year. And by the way, they also improve our CapEx spending. Through harmonization, deployment of standard practices, mass purchasing, we are able to save also on the distributed industrial network that we have throughout the world. Finally, as a big contribution, I wanted to mention our strong pricing discipline. All these recurring actions are actually embedded in the day-to-day operations of Imerys and contribute to our financial performance. If we look at the pricing side, I wanted also to give you a little bit more of detailed illustration. Selling price discipline as a rule is very important in every circumstance. In this field, Imerys has a strong track record, as you can see on the chart. Whether we are in a deflation or in an inflation environment, Imerys is able to maintain a positive price/cost balance over time. If we are doing that over time, it means that our sales teams find a way to maintain a good relationship with our customer and know how to adapt this pricing by geography, by market and by customer. It is even more important this year while we have brutal changes in some of the variable input costs, and we can take energy in Europe, in particular, as the main striking example, and also now that we have underlying inflation that can be felt in fixed costs such as labor, services and maintenance. We have purchasing savings, industrial excellence program and hedging that do contribute to Imerys' ability to offset the cost increase. But we cannot do without agility on price. And I believe we have demonstrated in real life that we are able to do so on a consistent basis. We have the same attention to cash generation. On the cash side as well, Imerys is able to find its way through the fluctuation of the business environment and make sure that the steady current EBITDA translates into high and resilient cash generation. The best illustration is to look back again several years, where you see that Imerys has converted consistently EBITDA into free cash flow. The business model of Imerys is relatively demanding, both in terms of CapEx and working capital. And that is thanks to our disciplined approach on all fronts that we are -- that we have and we will ensure that cash generation is sustained. Again, if we look at 2022, and we have seen that in the H1 result, the discipline is particularly needed now that exceptional inflation and logistic constraints put heavy pressure on some of the working capital components. We have looked at the main elements of our track record and at the way we conduct business. I would like now to look ahead and see how the new Imerys will look like once we exclude HTS and exclude the assets that are serving the paper market. The group will be smaller and more focused with profitability well in line with predisposal level. Imerys will also be largely deleveraged. Full year 2021 pro forma revenue of Imerys are at EUR 3.3 billion and current EBITDA at EUR 583 million if we want to be precise. It means the current EBITDA margin is very similar at 17.4% of sales, all of that with a stronger financial structure. If we take the 2021 balance sheet and only apply the sales proceeds expected to be cashed in 2022, the net financial debt will just be over 1x the current EBITDA level. Just as a technical reminder, it is only in 2023, once the paper disposal has occurred, that the corresponding financial will be taken away from the consolidated P&L of the group. So these figures, you will see in full at the end of '23. I remind you as well, the paper assets are mostly U.S.-denominated business of revenues a little bit above $400 million. Thus, in euro, this converts right now, also above EUR 400 million with current rates, obviously a little bit less if we use 2021 historic rates. From this base that we have seen, going forward, what do we want to do? The growth and the profitability enhancement plan should contribute to the improvement of current EBITDA margin between 2022 and 2025. Our ambition is to improve the margin by 150 to 350 basis points from 16.5% this year, if we believe the consensus, which some of you in the room are actually producing for us. That will drive us to a range between 18% and 20% of EBITDA margin in 2025. Three levers will contribute to this improvement. First of all, the positive effect of accelerated organic growth and improved operating leverage. Then the savings and operational efficiency with the ongoing cost optimization programs. These programs that I mentioned, STEP and I-Cube, are right now complemented with digital industrial initiatives that we are deploying through our mining and transformation sites around the world. The third point is actually the contribution of strategic developments with above-average EBITDA margin. And my colleagues will go through some of them a little bit later today. Now with the increased cash from operation and with the one-off proceeds of our disposals, what are the use of funds that are foreseen. As a rule, the group will maintain a disciplined capital allocation and focus on profitable growth. It will be made by investing in organic growth through CapEx program in fast-growing businesses as well as innovation. It will allow us to do bolt-on M&A with strong strategic rationale. We maintain our internal threshold of a minimum IRR of 15% for bolt-on acquisitions. We also commit to delivering an attractive shareholder return through a continuous focus on dividend growth and share buyback, when appropriate. All in all, if we look at what happens in the very end of 2022 and the next 3 years, net cash available for redeployment will come in comparable proportion from the regular business and from the net proceeds of the disposals. This takes into account the fact that cash in from paper disposal is actually staged in time. In terms of uses, we also plan a proportional split between the CapEx that will fuel organic growth, I will come back to this, and the return to shareholders under all its forms. The third part of available cash will be dedicated to M&A, or if we don't find targets that have acceptable return levels, will be kept to contain the leverage of the company. All of this with positive constraints that we give ourselves, which is to retain an investment-grade rating for the company. How do we make sure that we fulfill our commitment to retain an investment-grade rating? Again, if we look back over the years, Imerys has maintained a reasonable leverage and makes sure that it has a strong creditworthiness. As you have in mind, our funding is mostly coming out of long-term bonds with the next big repayment, which does not happen before December 2024. We have also a large amount of credit lines that are secured and renewed on a regular basis. With the proceeds of business disposal, Imerys is even in a stronger position to start its new growth chapter. This new chapter will be a bit more demanding in terms of CapEx. As we can see in this slide, improving the growth profile of the group will come with a higher level of CapEx overall. It is due to an increased level of strategic capacity additions in fast-growing market, in particular, green mobility, and the increased capacity of our Graphite & Carbon footprint. Recurring CapEx will be optimized year-on-year, helped by the STEP program that I mentioned before. I wanted to highlight that not included in this graph, approximately EUR 100 million could be invested in the preparation of the EMILI lithium project over the next 24 months. This would happen provided the scoping studies that we are going confirm in 2023 all the preliminary results that we have already shared with you. That would mean as well that we enter into the industrial pilot phase Guillaume will give you a little bit more detail later on, on the planning and the details of the project. Before I conclude on the finance section, I wanted to stress that our finance ambition goes hand-in-hand with our ESG ambition. To give you a certain number of examples, we use CapEx allocation tools that promote investments that will decrease the carbon footprint of our operations. These investments apply directly in our industrial processes. In addition, we also promote renewable power purchase agreement. And we aim to accelerate this in order to improve our electricity mix down the road. On top of the tools I just mentioned, we anchor our ESG commitment with the external financial community. You remember that we have issued a sustainability-linked bond in May 21 attached to our target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is, for us, part of the virtuous circle that motivates the company to reach and beat its target. Leah will share with you in a few minutes how we will raise the bar in terms of ESG commitment. And you can be sure that we will make sure that our financial tools also support it. In conclusion, Imerys has strong ambitions for the years to come. We have the ambition to uplift organic growth to plus 3%, plus 5% per year on average between '22 and '25, thanks to the repositioned business portfolio, to the commercial initiatives and to the investments we are making in fast-growing markets. We have the ambition to improve profitability from today's level to 18%, 20% current EBITDA margin in 2025, thanks to efficiency actions and business mix. And while maintaining an investment-grade rating, we will also ensure an attractive shareholder remuneration. That's what I wanted to share with you. And on this note, I give the floor to Leah, that will give more details about the ESG side of our business ambition.
Leah Wilson
executiveThank you very much, Sébastien. So it's my pleasure to be here with you all today to share some insights on how Imerys is integrating environmental, social and governance elements in our business every day as Alessandro and both Sébastien have already introduced. In this section, I will go through our governance, which effectively steers the integration of ESG dimensions within our strategy. I'll present on our progress on four ESG priorities key to the group's strategy, which -- in which we aim to decarbonize our operations, preserve biodiversity, optimize the use of natural resources and steer our portfolio of solutions towards sustainability. I'll also share some details, as Sébastien just mentioned, about the group's next ESG road map and our overarching commitment to leadership in sustainability. So let me start with this. Given the broad range of products, applications and end industries that depend on minerals, it's absolutely impossible to contest the importance that our industry has played historically to our societies and to our economies. As Alessandro said, minerals are essential today. And we know that they will continue to be essential for the future. But as our society grows and we collectively consume more, we understand the pressures on natural systems are growing. We, at Imerys, we recognize this challenge, and we see it as an opportunity to create value for all of our stakeholders by thinking and by acting responsibly for the long term. This is why in 2017, we created SustainAgility, our comprehensive program to integrate sustainability into the core of our strategy. In 2019, we set clear, ambitious quantitative targets focusing on material ESG topics with defined road maps to achieve our targets. The integration of ESG at Imerys at the heart of our strategy really starts with robust governance. Within Imerys, this begins with the Board of Directors, which play a key role in the validation of the group's sustainability ambition. The Board and its committees are supported by an independent ESG Referent Director since 2021. The role of this ESG Referent Director is to ensure that the strategic direction set by the Board appropriately incorporates long-term environmental and social considerations and that the strategy implemented by the executive management is aligned with ESG priorities. On a more operational level, our SustainAgility program is overseen by a Sustainability Committee, chaired by Alessandro, which meets quarterly and has the responsibility to establish the group's sustainability ambition, to validate key milestones and to monitor the group's progress towards these objectives. But it's also very worth mentioning that the individual annual variable compensation of our CEO is linked to the achievement of the SustainAgility program targets. These same objectives are then cascaded to the Executive Committee and to the senior management to ensure that the entire organization is working towards our long-term sustainability goals. But while ESG is a front-of-mind topic for industries today and obviously a great interest to investors, Imerys is a leader in this topic because we did not start this journey yesterday. Our role in our operations in many communities around the world give us a unique opportunity to create lasting positive impacts. As members of the UN Global Compact, we've aligned our operations with the 10 UN Global Compact Principles. And we are working towards many of the Sustainable Development Goals even beyond our operations, focusing in particular on nine. Over the past 18 years, Imerys has organized a company-wide competition called the Sustainable Development Challenge, which serves as an impetus to develop concrete innovative projects on the ground. 18 years is a non-negligible time to have been working on ESG. In 2021 alone, over 300 projects were launched around the world with 55 new projects related specifically to community engagement that range from education and skills development to climate change and other environmental initiatives. As this very long history of projects demonstrates, Imerys is committed to maintain constructive dialogue and to generate long-term benefits for our local stakeholders. And this is one way we are concretely unlocking better futures. But our commitment to contribute to a better future goes beyond local stakeholders. We recognize that climate change -- that the climate change crisis calls for global action to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy. At Imerys, we have a climate change road map in line with the commitments of the Paris Agreement with the objective to reduce our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions relative to our revenue by 36% by 2030 from a 2018 base year. This objective, which was set and validated by the Science Based Targets initiative in 2019 and is aligned with a 2-degree C scenario, has guided the group's concrete reduction actions for carbon emissions across our operations. We are increasing our energy efficiency. We are modifying our energy mix. We are converting progressively to renewable energy, as Sébastien just mentioned, amongst a number of other actions. Since 2018, we have reduced absolute emissions by 26% and by 23% in relative terms to revenue as of the end of 2021. With regards to our Scope 3 indirect emissions, in 2021, we updated the quantification of our emissions and had our methodology and the results of our assessment audited by a third-party auditor. And we disclosed this information in our annual reporting. We continue to engage with our value chain partners in line with our SBTi targets, which we set to cover 71% of our spend by 2023. As of today, approximately 45% of the group's suppliers by spend have science-based targets in place. We are also disclosing our progress transparently through our annual financial disclosures and through the CDP climate. In 2021, we've reported on our climate road map in line with the recommendations of the TCFD, the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, including our risk and opportunity scenario analysis based on different international energy association scenarios. As Sébastien mentioned, in 2021, we also issued the EUR 300 million sustainability-linked bond, which was indexed to our climate change reduction targets. In the graph on the middle of this slide, you can see that we also set a specific intermediate performance target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 23% by the end of 2025. It was set to serve as an intermediary milestone on our trajectory towards 2030. We have integrated climate considerations within our key business processes, including capital expenditure, including M&A and innovation, but we aim to go further. We will continue on the path that we have set. But we are committed to accelerating our efforts. Starting with an update of our SBTi target to align with a 1.5-degree trajectory in absolute tons of CO2, aligning ourselves with the latest climate science and the most up-to-date and rigorous SBTi target-setting criteria. This new target, which we will submit to the SBTi in the next 6 months, will see us commit to reduce our Scope 1 and our Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 from a 2021 base year. We will also submit a new Scope 3 target and continue to communicate transparently on both our targets and our performance going forward. In addition to reducing our footprint by decarbonizing our operations, we are working towards our ambition to operate with no net loss of biodiversity. We focus on biodiversity during the entire lifecycle of a quarry, whether for the choice of the site, its operation, its rehabilitation or post-rehabilitation land use. Within Imerys, we have articulated four clear public commitments around biodiversity through our involvement with act4nature, which is an alliance of scientists, NGOs and businesses initiated to accelerate concrete business action under the supervision of a multi-stakeholder steering committee. Since 2018, Imerys has had a multiyear scientific partnership with the French Museum of Natural History, whose biodiversity experts support and challenge the group on the implementation of our local and global program, from reviewing our practices to testing indicators to mapping sensitive areas to running pilot projects. For example, on the island of Milos in Greece, along with the museum, we are collaborating with three different scientific institutions from Greece and France to test the capacity of bacteria and fungi to improve the regeneration rate in harsh environments where water is scarce. Such research and collaboration is absolutely essential to improve scientific knowledge and at the same time, improve rehabilitation efforts. By the end of 2022, our target is to have robust biodiversity action plans in place across all our sites with quarries or mines. And we are well on track to achieve that objective. I think it is really important to highlight that biodiversity, unlike climate, cannot be easily measured with one universal indicator like CO2 emissions. So while we are working to implement actions to reduce the major causes of biodiversity loss, we are also raising awareness and continuing to collaborate with experts from the scientific community to help develop, test and share robust biodiversity metrics to measure performance. No less core than CO2 or biodiversity, we are also focused on optimizing natural resource consumption, in particular, with regards to our mineral resources, which are at the very core of our business, and water, where we are focused on reducing consumption. We have increased, for example, the number of sites reporting recycled water by 20% since 2020. The past 2 years, we focused in particular on optimizing mineral resource efficiency by valorizing byproducts or co-products or introducing reclaimed raw material into our solutions as we contribute to efforts towards a more circular economy. For example, one of our products, ReMined, is a 100%-certified pre-consumer recycled calcium carbonate product developed by Imerys for use in carpets and vinyl backings as well as for other applications. Or in that process of optimizing energy -- sorry, resource efficiency of our operations, we're valorizing co-products whenever possible. For example, a range of mica-based products, co-produced with kaolin and quartz, are used in paints, cosmetics and other applications. These products produced in France offer micro solutions that are also a fully traceable and ethical supply chain source for our customers. Beyond reducing our footprint, our goal is not only to take action to mitigate environmental impacts but also to quantify positive impacts of our activity. For us, this started by defining a robust scientific methodology based on a transparent framework to measure the impact of our portfolio. Imerys has designed the SustainAgility Solutions Assessment framework based on the World Business Council for Sustainable Development guidelines for portfolio sustainability assessments. This methodology, which was audited and validated by a third party in 2021, has provided us with tremendous environmental lifecycle data about our portfolio, supporting our efforts to objectively measure the positive and enabling potential of our products, which you will hear more about in the second half of today's presentation by my colleagues. It likewise gives us a clear view on a suite of environmental impacts so that we can measure them more efficiently. At the end of 2021, we had measured 21% of our portfolio using this multi-criteria, cradle-to-grave methodology. And we are on track to reach our target of 40% by the end of the year. Innovation and dynamic portfolio management are key to increasing the positive impacts of our business. Whether it's supporting carbon-free mobile energy or sustainable construction, developing alternative packaging or more sustainable food production or designing longer-lasting solutions to reduce material consumption across a range of industries, we are continually advancing our product portfolio and assessing it against sustainability criteria to adapt to changing customer needs. In 2021, over 70% of our new product launches were rated as SustainAgility solutions, meaning that they scored in the 2 highest categories out of 4 categories. We likewise introduced pioneer solutions to clearly identify products with the highest sustainability performance, making it easier for our customers to select solutions based on sustainability benefits that they could see and that we could measure. For example, let me share three pioneer enablers -- sorry, examples that are enablers of circularity for our customers downstream. Jetfine 3 C A is an engineered ultrafine talc used in biodegradable plastic compounding processes to extend the properties of biopolymers. It contributes to circularity as it makes biopolymers as suitable and cost-competitive substitute for conventional fossil fuel-sourced and nonbiodegradable thermoplastics. Our Sewper Liner, which you will hear more about in the second half of the presentation, which is a calcium aluminate-based mortar used in wastewater treatment infrastructure. It serves as a protective coating against biogenic corrosion. And the 20-year durability perfectly demonstrates downstream circularity through an increased lifespan. Or finally, ShrinkSan, which is a patented reusable kiln furniture system, which is capable of managing piece contraction during firing. It can be used more than 800 times, allowing sanitaryware producers to significantly reduce the amount of waste they generate. These are about three examples of many innovative solutions pioneered by Imerys that support our customers in their own sustainability journeys. And speaking of customers, I'm very pleased to share an interview with you of Evelyne Prat, who is the Cementitious Technology Head at Sika, who will share her views on the way we cooperate with Sika to contribute to sustainability.
Evelyne Prat
attendeeBecause at Sika, we strongly believe that sustainability must be at the center of everything Sika does. Why? Because as a technology leader with a global presence, we bear responsibility to drive the change towards a more sustainable society. How we want to achieve that? We think our biggest impact will be through the design of solutions that will enable the construction and transportation industry to meet their own sustainability goals. Sika contributes strongly to the United Nation Sustainable Development Goals. And we support the Science Based Target initiatives. Together with the others, we are strongly committed to reduce our CO2 emissions. And we strongly believe that major players, such as Imerys and Sika, can play a crucial role to make the planet a better place. Then first, we hope our suppliers will support us as well as we try to support our own customers. This means that we'll be ranking our suppliers not only on cost and performance but also on their code of conduct, very important, and on their ability to provide us with sustainable solutions and last but not least, on their willingness to enter into very open, transparent collaboration. During our last Capital Market Day, early October, we have committed to reduce drastically our CO2 emissions by 25%, horizon 2032. This goal can be achieved if we reduce significantly the use of portland cement into our formulation and if we are able to design the new additive that will help to play with blended cement and concrete. Imerys has great, precious expertise in our chemistry. Since decades, you are supplying some high-quality, reliable, consistent raw materials. And we need strong partners like you to achieve these goals. Together, we -- I guess, we share the same sense of urgency relative to the need to design solution -- sustainable solution for the construction industry. We have a long-term relationship. We both are global as well as local. Relative to others, Sika is a very local company. And we want, with your help, to design the right solutions at the local level. Because there is no one-fits-all solutions. So we need even more than before to have a close relationship with you. Thank you, Imerys, for giving me the opportunity to join you on your sustainability journey on your Capital Markets Day.
Leah Wilson
executiveSo thank you very much to Evelyne and to Sika for that testimony. As we are now near the end of our 2020-2022 road map, we are working on our new ESG road map, setting objectives for 2025, which will be published in our next universal registration document in March 2023. Our new road map, like the one before it, is based on a robust double materiality assessment and a thorough ESG benchmark against our peers and industry, even though as Alessandro said, it's more for reference because we are ahead. This new program will really truly support our purpose, vision and the strategic road map that Alessandro has presented. And it will include ambitious targets to benefit not only our employees but also our customers and our planet. Our new program will likewise be guided by the same principles that guide us today. We are committed to using robust scientific methodologies to quantify our performance. We are aligned with leading standards as we focus on dialogue and transparency. We are committed to communicate on progress to a broad range of stakeholders. And we are sure that collaboration across boundaries with our value chain partners is key to our success. These core elements demonstrate our leadership position in sustainability, which is really truly recognized by ESG rating agencies. And in conclusion, Imerys is fully embedding ESG at the core of our strategy. This starts by reducing the environmental footprint of our operation and extends to our capacity to develop solutions that help our customers achieve their sustainability goals and more broadly, help societal needs be met. This is how we demonstrate our leadership within our industry and beyond. I'd like to thank you for listening. And I would like to invite Alessandro and Sébastien up to the stage to open the first Q&A session.
Alessandro Dazza
executiveThank you, Leah. Thank you, Sébastien. We are well ahead of schedule, which is good. We will finish earlier tonight. We've planned a 30-minute session here and a 30-minute session at the end. And of course, we will have a coffee all together. So let's target to close at 3:30 this session. And we have two microphones in the room. So raise your hand, and somebody in the room will help. We start with, I guess, John Christophe. Please?
Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq
analystI have two questions if you allow me. First, a new margin target, 18% to 20% EBITDA, does it imply an increase of the American footprint? As cash cost, North America are generally lower than in France and also in Europe. And secondly, can we have more flavor on the use of alternative fuels in your kilns?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveAnd so I would say don't forget that a lot of our assets are starting in the ground with a mine. So it's not very easy to move around the planet, the source -- the initial source of the process. Today, yes, we are. And therefore, the flexibility to say we produce more in the U.S. or more in Europe is limited. Because you cannot take a mine and bring it somewhere else. Today, yes, we do investigate the possibility to produce as much as we can in geographic areas where costs are more favorable. I think frankly, in my long career, I've never seen such a discrepancy in the cost base of different regions. And it all goes back to energy. If I look really the last 12, 18 months, we have seen increases of, I would say, 20% in Asia; 50%, 60% in the U.S.; 200%, 300% in Europe. So such a gap is such a short time, I've never seen it. And therefore, to partly confirm, yes. But it will not be a major shift because we are bound to where our resources and assets are. That's on the -- and your second question?
Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq
analystThe use of -- using waste fuel and alternative fuels in your kilns. Can we have more flavor?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveI would say there are two trends. One is a historical one, which is decarbonization. So we have been trying now since a few years to move away, first of all, from coal, where possible, to gas, move away from gas going to biomasses or similar or to electricity and within electricity, to try to select our supplier and our partner for a proper, let's say, decarbonized electricity. I like to remind this big CapEx we have done in the -- we have launched in the U.S. is being completed, where we have six large kilns. Most of them were running on coal. They will be all equipped to run on peanut shells or gas in a smaller part if we need more heat than the peanut shell can give us. So this is an overall trend and will continue. Then there is a short-term issue, which is what's going on today, which is the cost of gas in Europe especially and the risk of not having gas or electricity, especially in Europe. So today, we are evaluating options to guarantee production. And in this case, as in many countries in Europe, even at government level, I think today, we are probably ready to compromise on some short-term CO2 emission targets to guarantee production, to guarantee supply to our customer, to guarantee the economy to keep turning. I am convinced it is temporary. We will go back to our previous trend and previous curve. But today, yes, we are cleaning up and refurbishing old coal burners or gas burners, where we now use other biomasses. So yes, today, I think the first target is to guarantee production and supply to our customers. Sven?
Sven Edelfelt
analystSven Edelfelt, ODDO. Two questions for me. On the capital allocation, you provide us on Page 26 with a chart, which suggests that the return to shareholders is likely to be 33%, or if I'm not mistaken, EUR 400 million. So that means deduct from the dividend, you're expecting to have, let's say, a EUR 250 million share buyback per annum. Is that the right way to look at it? That's the first question. Second one, we have a pie on Page 13 on the Imerys of -- the new Imerys, let's say. If I'm not mistaken, this is the new Imerys as of 2022 without paper and the HTS. Can you give us a sense where do you want to bring Imerys in 2025 or even medium term, long term? Do you want still to be 40% construction, maybe more consumer than what it is today? And maybe a bit technical one, your construction part is moving from 30% to 40% on the back of the disposal. And the consumer is broadly unchanged, 21% and 22%. Could you explain this little technical move here?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveYes, it's not technical, it's mathematics. I will let Sébastien comment on -- maybe not on the figures because there are a lot of assumptions in your question but on the purpose on the targeted potential shareholder return.
Sébastien Rouge
executiveJust to make sure -- I don't know. To make sure it's understood, in the chart we have, there is a combination of one-off disposal and recurring cash flow. So we can -- we shall not anticipate every year to have the benefit of the one-off. It's a big one, but we cannot anticipate that it shall become a yearly routine to do exceptional shareholder remuneration.
Sven Edelfelt
analystSo for this year, calculation is correct then?
Sébastien Rouge
executiveWe have to get back to the calculation. Overall, the idea is that if we look at, at least one of the next years, yes, there is room for something extra than just a dividend distribution that can take several forms, yes.
Alessandro Dazza
executiveAnd I think to complete on what Sébastien is saying, we've taken no decision. By the way, it's a decision that the Board will present to the general assembly. And we are not there yet. By the way, we don't even have the money yet. So it's -- we'll be happy once it's on our bank account. But for sure, there is, among the different options that we are considering, the possibility for an exceptional return to shareholders. And there are two ways of doing it: through a share buyback or through an exceptional increase or extraordinary dividends. We are not there yet with this decision. And we will address it in due time when we are sure we have the means to do it. Coming back to the market, Sven. So first, on construction, construction grows because the others disappear. So iron, steel and paper disappear -- will disappear once the divestitures are completed. So by definition, the other markets grow. Why does construction grow more and consumer less? Because in consumers, we used to report some of what now you see under energy. For instance, we don't only supply lithium-ion batteries for cars, computers and telephone. But we're also the biggest supplier in the world for all batteries, Duracell, Energizer, Varta, call them whatever you want. Typically, they go in consumer goods products. So we used to report them under consumers. Since we have created now a business on its own called energy or sustainable energy, we have taken some of these products and put them into energy. Also because, by the way, and I don't know if you have noticed that yet, but when you go to a supermarket now, you find traditional Duracell and you find Duracell with lithium, and they say five times longer. So even for a standard battery to throw away, lithium, and therefore, our conductive additives, are becoming part of it. And that's why we said it's much better to call it basically sustainable energy. And it's not the case of construction. Construction has remained unchanged. And therefore, eliminating some components, it grows in percentage. And I would like to add, we still have some businesses that serve the iron and steel market because we do sell some raw materials for people like HTS. So it is small. And therefore, it's, I don't think, relevant to expose it directly. But we said this steel, where is it used? And construction is today the largest single market for steel. So some of the remaining business has gone into -- and I think it's a footnote on the presentation, it's gone into construction a little bit into automotive, which are the two largest users of steel in terms of global markets. Where do we want to take Imerys tomorrow? I think where we are today is great. So if you're asking me indirectly, are we planning to divest, sell other bits and pieces? Fundamentally, no. I'm very glad what we have. We have a construction sector, which is traditionally growing. And within the construction sectors, we have products which are higher penetration and are growing. In automotive, there is some cyclicity with the car industry. But we are very strong in electric vehicles. And we are very strong on minerals that make them lighter. We are very strong in cables. In a cable, like this one, you have minerals. New cars will be full of cable. So for me, the automotive with the cyclicity will offer Imerys a growth which is above the normal trend. Energy, no need to talk, that's the market of the future as you well know. And our industrial activities are -- when you extract a mineral from the ground, you need to sell it everywhere. And therefore, some of it goes into industrial application, equipment makers, is nice, it's typically GDP growth. So when I look at my pie, I'm happy. If I project it into the future, I believe energy will have a significantly higher growth. So this 11% will widen by definition. If you look at our CapEx spend, the projection, and there will be a special slide going forward, we have doubled in 3 years. We will double in 6 years. And we might quadruple in the next 5 years. So this 11%, by definition, will grow very rapidly, but because it's growing faster than the others. But all markets will, in my opinion, contribute to the future.
Mourad Lahmidi
analystYes, Mourad from BNP Paribas Exane. So I have one question. In the context of your 3% to 5% like-for-like growth target, how should we think about your exposure to construction over the next 2 years? I mean, this market is probably on the verge of downturn, given higher rates. So maybe you can help us understand the main moving parts in terms of new build, renovation, geographical exposure. What makes you so confident that this market will continue to grow into your plan?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveWell, I would say -- any preemptive question that might come, I would say out of the 3% to 5% growth that we target in average annual over the next 3 years, I would say about half we expect it to come from the growth of the underlying markets, the other half because we're going to be better. Because we have all these components that will allow us to accelerate. Construction is a good example. I think we have seen fantastic months behind us. It was the first market to rebound post COVID. It enjoyed very much this renovation fancy, when people were locked at home and had no other things to do but renovate their house. As we go again on vacation and restaurants -- in bar and restaurants, we do see one of the questions of some analysts last week on volumes Q3, we have calculated 1% drop is specifically on the do-it-yourself market because it compares to a fantastic 2021 is what you're saying. Is it on the verge of collapse? I'm not sure. Is it going to slow down? Yes, I do agree with you. But I think you should look at these markets in the long term. We will have another COVID. We will have another 2008 crisis or an inflation crisis. But either the market has a long-term prospect or it doesn't. So for me, everything in between are hiccups that will -- will Imerys grow 20% like in 2021? No, because it's the correction of a terrible 2020. But the trend is what counts. And this trend for me is the 3% to 5%. Next year, construction might be softer. Fine, we'll grow less, but we will have penetration. And you will see specifically, there is a section on construction, there are some products, and the customer testimony is exactly the one that is so enthusiastic about this product, that will grow more than the market because the world needs them. So they will grow more than underlying construction trends. And to answer your last part of the question, I would say, today, we are exposed around 2/3 or even a bit more to renovation rather than on new construction. And for me, renovation tends to be more resilient. Because when there is a crisis, we fix our houses. And when there is no crisis, we build new houses, so -- and that's why we have such sometimes exceptional growth in 2021, a lot of renovation going on, people spending on their houses. And then there is -- yes, go ahead. I just was pointing on the back.
Laurent Runacher
analystLaurent Runacher, Exane Asset Management, and not at all Exane BNP Paribas. So I was just -- as you are doing some pro forma calculus, I just wanted to make sure that I'm not -- first, if I use a big point of your EBITDA guidance for 2022, is it fair to assume that the pro forma Imerys with divestments embedded is currently on a value of EBITDA which is circa 4x post divestments?
Sébastien Rouge
executiveMechanically -- so just to answer at least to the first part of the question, so with the first set of disposal, the EBITDA target for 2022 is around EUR 700 million to cut it short. If we take back the historical EBITDA from paper in 2021, you will take out EUR 70 million, something like that. So we are at EUR 630 million, EUR 640 million, around that. So then obviously, if you multiply it by 4, that's a little bit less than the EBITDA.
Laurent Runacher
analystI've got a second question. Can you please -- on the automotive market, are you able to break down what is, I would say, linked to EV vehicles versus ICE vehicles?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveNo. Quick answer, no, for a simple reason, you paint a car. And in paint, you have a massive component of minerals. You paint an EV and you paint an ICE, which is internal combustion for -- so a classic engine or EV, so you both -- what I would say, Laurent, is probably the part relating to energy, there is a strong component of EVs in our pipe. Because lithium-ion batteries and other energy applications are minor compared to the future potential of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. Whereas the automotive -- what we call automotive is more the traditional applications, which is fillers for polymers, for cables, for paints. There are abrasives to grind the car or to grind the components. There is a bit of -- so I would say that automotive is all cars. Independently, the energy is rather much more on really EVs.
Unknown Analyst
analystMy name is [ Elisa ], I'm from Berenberg. I've got two questions. Firstly, what does your capital allocation strategy mean for management compensation? Do you think it will change next couple of years?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveOkay. Then let me answer because it's in regards to -- I don't know. We are not there yet. What we were trying to give you with this slide is the big buckets where we will invest the proceeds potentially as well as our cash flow. I think a good 1/3 will go to fuel these great opportunities we have, which you will see in the second part of the day to really invest in this very promising, very rapidly growing markets. There will be a part, which is for me, discretionary, which means we might deleverage. We will do M&A. I think Imerys, if you look back, has done an average of EUR 50 million to EUR 100 million on acquisitions, small, what we call bolt-on, the small ones, the easy one to integrate year-on-year. But as you can see, we have much more available. If we find the structural move, we are ready. We know that our Board historically has always supported important moves. So we have this buffer to play with. And of course, after such good performances and the recent divestiture, probably there will be some exceptional returns to the shareholders. My -- I doubt that the capital allocation per se will have an impact frankly on management incentives. Our incentive -- our mission is to grow this company. They ask us to change it. We did. Our shareholders, my Board is very happy to what they see. We have the full support to implement what we have presented. So I guess, that's what they will ask me to do going forward, and therefore, incentivized based on this.
Unknown Analyst
analystOne more question. Is it fair to assume that the talc litigation will be sorted in 2023?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveI wish I could say yes, but I can't. No, no, I can't is wrong. I do not want to because in the past, we have made some guesstimations on when it will happen. And unfortunately, we were wrong. Today, the mediation ordered by the court is ongoing. It is advancing quite nicely lately. I have to be, let's say, on the positive side as to lately, there have been a lot of meetings between plaintiffs. I remind you that's the only topic on the table today. And that's why Imerys is here and not there negotiating. We are not involved. The main topic of discussions today is around the repartition of the money that will be available one day once Chapter 11 is closed on how to share this money between the two large groups of plaintiffs, which is ovarian cancer and mesothelioma cancer. It's the only open question. It's among the law firms. We are not part of this discussion. It can come very rapidly. It can be tonight, there is an agreement. We have to put it on paper and then there is a time frame, which is the formal one of hearing, of voting, counting and final confirmation. So it doesn't happen in a day. But this first step depends on the progress of this negotiation and mediation. It can come any day, it can come later. And that's why I prefer not to commit, unfortunately.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[indiscernible] If we come back on the Slide 21 on the selling price effect, excluding this year of 18%, we have around 2% of selling price effect. Is it this assumption you have put in the 3% to 5% organic growth for the plan?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveTo be frank, we have put rather 0. And that's why we write somewhere in the corner net of inflation. What has happened this year is exceptional. As you can see from the table, never ever we have seen inflation at this level. What we have proven, and there was also a graphic in the presentation, every time there is a bit of inflation, we have been able to pass it through and a bit more, which has helped us to constantly raise our profitability and margins. What happened this year is incredible and unprecedented. We have managed it. As you can see, we are still positive. We have done our job. Inflation will drop next year. It's not Alessandro saying that, it's what we read in every newspaper rather in the second part, but it will drop next year. It will not drop to the same levels of the past. We will live in a world with sustained inflation, I think, for several semester, maybe years. And therefore, it will be our job to keep always one step ahead of inflation. But fundamentally, we have assumed to be net of inflation. If we manage to gain something more, it will help our organic growth. But it's not the basis of we really want to deliver on volumes and price should be a small component of it. It shall be there. It shall be positive. It is important. But it is not the basis of our plan. And by the way, we've done a rapid back of the envelope calculation. If you assume that the inflation -- if you assume that our price increase represents inflation, 18% plus/minus in 9 months. If you assume that our costs grew by 18%, if you remove these 2 factors, you will see that our EBITDA margin in reality not only has progressed in absolute terms but even in percentage. So this inflation has a dilutive effect. I'm very proud we managed to recover all this inflation. Because believe me, the sales team and my colleagues here running the businesses have had an incredible year. When you start every month to address the issue, it was a very, very challenging year. So I think they've done a great job with their teams. And I hope we come back to a more normal world, which is the 2% of the past. It was the best times for us, constant, reliable, one negotiation per year and we are the partner of the customer. We prefer the normality of the past rather than the roller coaster of the present, believe me.
Sejal Varshney
analystI'm Sejal Varshney...
Alessandro Dazza
executiveI suggest the last one and then we'll take a break. I think everybody needs it. We'll have another session at the end for remaining questions.
Sejal Varshney
analystSejal Varshney from AlphaValue. So I have a question, if I may. On Slide 15, you have mentioned that you intend to grow the green mobility business by around EUR 600 million by 2030. So I just did quick calculations. And your carbon black and graphite business was around EUR 150 million in this division by 2021. And even if you estimate that it grows by 20% CAGR, which is still below the lithium battery expected growth of 30% CAGR by 2030, even then the business could be worth around EUR 1 billion in revenues. But here we are at around EUR 750 million by 2030. So can you help me in understanding why it is below the underlying market growth expectation?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveI prefer to let Frank, in about an hour, give you this answer because he will show the growth. But to make it simple, number one, we are a conservative company. And telling your story for 2030, we wanted to give you a feeling that this business is doubling every 3 years. Where it will be in 2030, if it's EUR 700 million or EUR 1 billion? Probably closer to EUR 1 billion rather than EUR 700 million. It's far away. What is for sure is today, the only limit is our capacity to rapidly ramp up production and CapEx. It's the only limit we have. That's why if you look back end of '19, beginning of '20, we announced adding one line in carbon black, one line in synthetic graphite. They were not even finished, we announced another line and another line, which are being built as we talk. So we are probably a year late due to COVID, difficult to announce a EUR 100 million, EUR 200 million CapEx in the middle of COVID with a new CEO. So I guess, we are a bit late. But the limit is only this. So we will push. We will push harder. We have a road map that Frank will present. But I would almost call it is the minimum. We have customers calling us regularly, "Can you do more?" We are ready to commit. We are the leader. And you will see, we are the leader in this market. We are the preferred solution. When you don't have any other solution, you take also, let's say, lower-performing products. But the limit is, at the moment, ourselves. Okay. Thank you very much for the interest. I suggest -- it is 3:30, I suggest to take a 30-minute break. We will reconvene at 4 in the room for the second part. And there will be a second Q&A session. Thank you very much. [Break]
Alessandro Dazza
executiveWelcome back, second part of the day. As said, a few snapshots on some of the most promising businesses or parts of the businesses. And if I may do an introduction and preempt a question that we might have at the end, if you do the math, and somebody better than me has done it in the team, you will see that -- I think it's bad to be in front of the speaker. You will see that all of these specific bits and pieces would probably justify half of the growth that we are announcing. And that's exactly the point. These are not our entire businesses. These are bits and pieces of our larger businesses. So you will see that we will address the business as a whole, which has its growth and its parcours, its path. And then there are here and there, something that will deliver more. And that's exactly what we want to show you to really reinforce what we said in the first part. We believe in what we say, we're going to deliver. And these are just examples that will help us do it. So we start with green mobility and sustainable energy. It will be shared between Frank. And I want to introduce yourself, Frank, please, because I'm not sure everybody knows you. And Olivier will do the same in a few minutes. Thank you.
Frank Wittchen
executiveThank you very much, Alessandro. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's a pleasure for me to introduce Graphite & Carbon, but maybe I say a few words about myself. I joined Imerys in 2018. I'm an engineer by education and done my MBA in the U.S. at Duke University, I really like to bring technologies, which have bring value for customers and for the society to fly to make money out of it. This is the reason why I joined Imerys and I'm very excited to share with you today what is the Graphite & Carbon business of Imerys about. I can be already quite fast in my presentation because I learned this morning that you are already quite knowledgeable of what Graphite & Carbon might be, but maybe there as well some more details, which I want to explain to you. What is Graphite & Carbon about in Imerys? Imerys Graphite & Carbon is a specialty business. We are producing synthetic graphite and carbon black for various industries. We are a European routed company with our 2 flagship plants, 1 in Belgium, Willebroek where we produce carbon black and 1 in Switzerland where we produce synthetic graphite. Historically, we have been serving different industries like engineering materials, but as well the alkaline battery business, which Alessandro was referring to already and various others. Today, we are having 50% of our revenues with lithium-ion battery and fuel cell customers. We are clearly supporting the energy transition of the society with the products we make, and I will explain that to you in a minute. In 2018, we have changed the strategy of Graphite & Carbon. We clearly said we want to be part in serving high-growth industries. So like lithium-ion batteries, but as well fuel cells. During this last 4 years, basically, we were able to almost double the turnover of Graphite & Carbon and to more than double the profitability of Graphite & Carbon. As you see in our revenue distribution, we are clearly Asian focused. Why is that so? Today, the battery market, in particular, is dominated by Asian players and we are working with these main battery makers on a day-to-day basis. What is the lithium battery about? I will not go into technical details today, but what is our role in such a battery? Our role is basically to provide the conductivity of a battery. You can imagine like conductive additives like roads in the battery because we enable the lithium ions to flow between the anode and the cathodes. We are providing a conductive additive, which has only a small portion in terms of weight and cost for the battery makers. And therefore, we are quite normal and basically do the same like the rest of Imerys. We are the clear market leader as of today. And in particular, the growth in China is fueling our revenue growth. The lithium-ion battery market, and I guess most of you are pretty much aware of it is clearly dominated by EV car development. And you see here the nice CAGR until 2025. Why is that so? Over the last years, the development in terms of cost reduction for a battery, but as well for an EV car has reduced significantly. This is closing the gap to a normalized car and more people can afford to buy such a car. On top of it, we see that due to the regulations, more and more OEMs are switching to only build EV cars in the future. And some of them already stopped developments for ICE cars. On top of it, the governmental pull support for this industry in terms of subsidies, but as well in terms of infrastructure is increasing day over day. How does that resonate with the conductive additives, which we are producing. Conductive additives go in every battery. So if it goes in every battery, each car, which is powered by a battery is well correlated to the carbon additive demand. We are seeing today that basically every 6 months, the demand for batteries at least in the predictions are increasing by 1 terawatt hour. Today -- I think today, it's roughly 7 terawatt hours. When we did our business plan, which we showed to you today, it was much, much lower. And Alessandro said it rightfully, we try to be on the prudent level in order not to oversell it. An interesting point, which is important to remember as well, what type of battery will be the future. First of all, every lithium ion battery will consume or will need conductive additive or graphite. There is no battery on this market, and there will not be for the next 15 to 20 years of battery without. This is important. Second, we have a switch in the battery making. Due to the scarcity of cobalt, the lithium ferro phosphate battery is now preferred by a lot of battery makers. And the nickel manganese cobalt battery is a little bit under pressure due to the nonavailability of cobalt. The good thing for us, the so-called LFP battery is consuming or demanding even more conductive additive compared to an NMC battery. This is a trend which we have to watch carefully, but it could even accelerate our growth in the future. Another very interesting application, which we are serving is the fuel cell. We have started to think about it in 2018. And today, we have already the first commercial successes with fuel cell makers. Fuel cells are not a competitor to the lithium-ion battery. They are just a complementary technology. And it's a technology, which is still early stage, therefore, enjoying very high growth rates, but we predict that after 2026, there will be a tremendous growth for fuel cells because if we want to transfer into the hydrogen economy fuel cells are necessary to do so. We are well placed with the products we are producing today because we are serving basically 3 elements of a fuel cell, the bipolar plate, the gas diffusion layer and the catalyst support. Like for lithium-ion batteries, fuel cell cannot be operated without graphite or carbon black solutions. How can we support all the big growth ambitions, which we have. We have a 3-pillar model. And there are 3 very important points. First of all, supply security for our customers, innovation and partnership. You know that we have already EUR 180 million of investments under execution in order to expand the capacity of our plant in Willebroek with carbon black. We bring online in 2023, the first line, and we bring online in 2024, the next line. With 2 lines, we have basically doubled the capacity of Willebroek. The same we did basically in Bodio where we installed expansions of expansions already. What is ahead, in order to really capture the big growth, it's not enough what we are doing today. Therefore, we have developed another plant, which is basically EUR 450 million investments into new production assets, which will not be located in Europe, but will be either located in the America and/or in Asia because these are fast-growing markets, and we cannot live with production footprint, which is too European-centric. Innovation is what our customers require. They want new products, they want enhanced products, they are as well as searching for new battery types. And this is where we are working with our R&D teams very closely with all these battery makers. We're testing -- They are testing our materials. We try to refine materials, and it's a very close collaboration in order to get the best solution for the customer. Last but not least, M&A and partnership goes without saying, we are constantly monitoring the market. We are looking for good technologies. We are looking for companies, who like to share assets and so on and so forth because we are the leader of this market. We want to grow faster than the competition. That's exactly how we want to do it. In conclusion, and I think your calculation was almost right. We will double sales again basically like we did since 2018 in the coming years until 2025 and beyond. With our products, in particular, on the lithium-ion batteries, but as well on the fuel cell side, we are supporting the energy transition. We are the leader in this market and with the investment plan, which I just laid out to you, we try to maintain this leadership position. Sustainability is clearly in the focus of everything we are doing every day. We have a clear plan to execute energy recovery projects and as well energy efficiency projects because we need to reduce the CO2 emission output of our production rapidly and sustainably. Last but not least, the growth journey of Graphite & Carbon will continue. And we have a great team behind it because it has proven that it can execute and deliver. Thank you very much for your attention. Over to you.
Olivier Pirotte
executiveThank you. Definitely a great business and impressive growing pattern for sure. But yet, this is not the only one. Another area where basically Imerys specialty solutions are key enablers for the lighting for the car and the automotive industry. As said previously, those markets and market segments represent 14% of Imerys sales. We serve these market segments in many different ways. Notably, we find talc in tires, abrasive in the braking pads, carbonates in pains or in the adhesives, but one of our key contribution to safe and sustainable car comes from our high-performance lightweighting solutions for plastics and polymers. This is a very dynamic segment, representing more than EUR 100 million of sales and this is led by our most advanced high aspect ratio, sorry, for that range growing double digit over the last years. And so if we first zoom on why is vehicle lightening such an increasing requirement everywhere in the world. Basically, you have both push and pull dynamics. First, a push from regulation to reduce CO2 emission through more and more stringent standards in most countries. And one of the key levers to reduce weight is basically introducing more aluminum, more plastic instead of steel. And this is valid as well for combustion engine as well as an electrical drive car, because the heavy battery there will also require a lightweight structure to hedge sufficiently autonomy. And second, on top, there is a strong pull from the market with end consumer more and more turning to clean energy vehicles and therefore, to lighter technology. So more plastics in auto parts, name it, bumpers, inside equipment, internal panel are essential for making vehicles thinner and lighter. Provided, obviously, than those polymers have the right stiffness and resistance. And the beauty here is that our minerals, whether it's talc, it could be also over last night, [indiscernible] name it, brings the solution for the compounders and the automotive OEMs by ensuring high plastic mechanical performance while maintaining safety and other properties. Imerys in that field is the undisputed leader in the market, with revenues expected to grow at a fast pace, more than 20% a year and particularly around the HAR grades. To support this trend, Imerys has been expanding globally its industrial footprint. And more recently, our JADE project has been launched, which is a greenfield plant built in China to serve locally major Tier 1 OEMs in the country, obviously, in China or more largely in the region. The project is very key to unlock our full potential in that area in Asia. Production is expected to start first quarter 2023, and progressively will bring an additional EUR 30 million of sales at maturity. And to illustrate this is a nice picture of the plan under construction as we speak. The area is well known as allocated to one of our carbonate specialty performance operation on sort of it. So that's for lightning, conductive materials, as Frank explained, plastic reinforcement, certainly, 2 strong illustration on Imerys ability to enable the energy transition. Now, if you like, I would like quickly to lead you through 2 additional snapshots probably less known, but indubitably as promising and which are serving on the sustainable energy wave per se. The first one is The Quartz Corporation business, TTC, which is actually a company equally 50% owned by Imerys and our partner, Norsk Mineral, a Norwegian one. And that company serves what's the specialist call the world's clean energy and connectivity industries by basically providing extremely high purity, 99.999% quartz solutions for crystals used in the making in the production of solar panels, semicons and glass fibers. The combination of our quartz deposit and the purification process are quite unique in that area and supported by very fast growth in the application, as you may understand, this business show and posted a 16% average growth over the last 4 years with an EBITDA significantly above group average. I can assure you that this is not the end of our ambition in that field. Another small jewel in Imerys portfolio is our biofuel feedstock purification activity. Briefly said, it consists in removing through mineral filter aids, unwanted contaminants from fats, oils and greases used in biodiesel and aviation fuel plants. It's currently still a small business, circa EUR 5 million, but it is enjoying a sustained commercial development. Most of the plants commissioned in the last 2 years is basically adopted Imerys mineral solution in that field, leading us to plan for future capacity addition and multiply revenue by 10 over the period. To wrap up this part, let's reemphasize. First, the strong world leadership position built by Imerys in either the conductive additive materials, both synthetic graphite and carbon black for lithium-ion batteries, the lighting minerals for polymers and plastics or high purity quartz for photovoltaic and electronics or mineral-based filter aids for biofuel. They are all benefiting from the decarbonization journey and megatrend in the world. And Imerys in that field is clearly accelerating its development to combine the strong growth of those underlying market segments. The ongoing expansions and the future plans will generate more than EUR 250 million sales of extra revenue by 2025. And if we look forward to 2030, it's going to be more than EUR 600 million of additional sales. And at EBITDA level, which are actually significantly above group's average. Those numbers, to be very clear, are not embedding the EMILI project, and they are not encompassed in those numbers, which is something very different with a different time or reason. So that gives you the flux favor about, let's say, mobile energy and sustainable development. I will now leave the floor to Philippe, my colleagues in [indiscernible] being actually in charge of the Refractory, Abrasive & Construction, and we'll talk about our ambitions in sustainable construction.
Philippe Bourg
executiveThank you, Olivier. Thank you, Olivier. So let's share now some initiative pursuit for one of our growth engine for Imerys, sustainable construction. As a reminder, construction infrastructure is the single largest business of the group, representing 40% of the end market we serve. This business is not only growing with market, but beyond and above, thanks to a wide range of unique products and solutions, specifically addressing sustainable construction needs that we will present now. We will focus on 2 initiatives, which are strongly contributing to sustainable construction. First, our offering for high-performance buildings as well as our decarbonization solutions. Imerys is supporting the strict pillar of sustainable construction for a large range of minerals and solutions from performing and long lasting material, insulating enabler, up to low carbon footprint contributor, our unique calcium aluminate binders, as well as our right range of mineral solutions are addressing these various challenges, thanks to a best understanding of our customer and end market needs. But let's start by high performance and sustainable building. Building and construction segment is the largest business of the group with EUR 1.2 billion of revenue. Our high-performance and sustainable building related products are showing a strong growth, fully recovering and exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels with a growth rate of 17% from 2020 to 2021. This unique solution are serving various end market Drymix mortar being the main one, which is mainly driven by the renovation industry. In this drymix and renovation segment, we have outperformed the market by almost 12% over the last 3 years. Drymix mortar is the fast-growing market, strongly supported by the progressive sophistication of the flooring technology. We are addressing it, thanks to our global presence, which help us to support global accounts such as Sika, Mapei and many other local and global players with a large range of calcium aluminate binders, supplied from our 9 industrial facilities located in China, in India, recently inaugurated in Europe and in North America. Our strong customer focus and recognized expertise are helping us to educate local players and facilitate market penetration. Our expectation is to reach EUR 350 million sales by 2025, a 8% CAGR from the EUR 262 million base of 2021, 15% of the sales being already generated in emerging markets. Our calcium aluminate-based solutions are also contributing to an improved sustainability of wastewater infrastructure. For instance, and [indiscernible] our Sewper product line are providing longer service lives than epoxy polymer solutions used so far while reducing environmental footprint. When used for wastewater acid protection against hydrogen sulfide biogenic corrosion, our SewperLiner has 70% less greenhouse gas effect compared to epoxy according to the life cycle analysis study led on this specific application. Several references in U.S., in Europe, in Asia as well as commercial partnership with recognized OEM will help us to double our revenue by 2025 to reach at least EUR 50 million. Insulation solutions are also a key contributor to sustainable construction. Imerys is addressing this segment with 2 enablers for this new way of building insulation. The first one concerns mineral foams. Based on calcium aluminates, these new materials helps to achieve property while providing fire resistance and a good mechanical resistance. Sustainable benefits are obvious in terms of durability and CO2 footprint. The second one is based on extended minerals, which contribute to the development of high-performance vendor for ETICS, external thermal insulation composite system, being lightweight and fast drying may [indiscernible] preferred solution for professional in insulation and sustainable buildings. More than EUR 30 million of additional revenues are expected by 2025 on this certification. Let's move now to decarbonization solution that Imerys is offering to various building-related application. In this part, we will showcase some existing business example, but also open the floor to some new opportunities that our mineral will bring to the CO2 reduction road map of our customers. But first, let's -- thanks to this slide. Remind that Imerys products and solutions are playing a key role in construction-related material as illustrated there. In the meantime, our mineral and ultra reactive binders are strongly contributing and supporting our customers in their CO2 reduction road map, offering solutions from concrete to flooring, from plastic to paints that we will go through in the coming slides. Let's start by the most used one, green cement, thanks to its unique portfolio of minerals such as clay from metakaolin and perlite. Imerys is able to support the cement industry by providing performance booster of low carbon cement with a clinker substitution rate up to 70%. Today, we focus on high-end application, supported by high-quality resources and reserves in Europe and in the Americas. And we see massive potential for these solutions, able to decarbonize the cement industry with about EUR 200 million of additional revenue by 2030. Glass and ceramics tiles are also an area of development, where substitution of carbonized product with some of our minerals is helping to reduce the overall CO2 for these industries. We also see increasing opportunities in replacing petrochemical product with some of our minerals such as calcium carbonate, but also mica, wollastonite in plastics, pipes, siding and appliances. Calcium carbonates have a higher thermal conductivity than polymers, which lead to higher cycle times, production efficiency and throughput. Thanks to that, our customers can reduce their greenhouse gas emission up to 9% when displacing 10% of petrochemical product with calcium carbonates. This, as an example, should help us to reach above EUR 100 million of additional revenue by 2025, an expected CAGR of 3% to 5%. Last but not least, let's share some initiatives around circular economy. This is obviously becoming increasingly important in all the markets we serve, in each and any of them, we are striving to support them with a multiple of solution with either circular or biosourced material. Let's illustrate with 2 examples out of many ongoing developments. First one, our remained product portfolios that Leah mentioned earlier, is an incentive out of our U.S. calcium carbonate assets. By offering primary [indiscernible] waste to the carpet, flooring, mortar and adhesive industry, we help our customers to achieve sustainability targets by reducing carbon footprint with a safer alternative to coal-based product while contributing to their LEED scoring, LEED being a U.S. certification for green building. Second one refers to ceramics again and insulation industry, where the integration of post-industrial or post-consumer waste are seen as a game changer. All these initiatives are opening a field of large untapped growth potential in most, if not all, the market segments we serve. So to summarize, Imerys is already a key contributor and partner of choice to sustainable construction. Thanks to a wide range of minerals and solutions. This segment has generated over EUR 1.2 billion with growth rate over the last year, far above market average. Ongoing initiatives should bring EUR 150 million of additional revenue per annum by 2025. This will be supported with additional development opportunities from 2025 onwards, driven by the need of the CO2 reduction in the construction industry worldwide. I now leave the floor to Jim. Thank you.
Jim Murberger
executiveOkay. Thank you, Philippe. I'm Jim Murberger, I'm in charge of our North American South American business for Imerys. Today, I'm going to talk to you a little bit about natural solutions for consumer goods. It's an important area for Imerys. It's about 22% of our turnover, and it's the second largest end market in the new Imerys. The group of market segments tends to be less cyclical, more recession-resilient and offers an above-average growth rates. Additionally, our minerals provide a variety of application value and are typically a smaller cost component for our clients, and allow us to have attractive margins. I'll briefly explain 4 main initiatives and we continue to develop in this exciting space. But before we do that, let's describe the business in total. It represents about $700 million -- EUR 700 million of turnover, again, showing really good resilience, as you can see with the catch-up after COVID. And it's a diverse set of submarkets. You can see that we're in board and packaging, food and beverage, health care, animal food and welfare and agriculture. And then over the last couple of years, we've been able to outperform the market in these segments. Now let's discuss some of the specific developments. The first area I will present is centered around providing sustainable solutions to improve food output by increasing crop yields. According to estimates compiled by the food and agriculture organization. By 2050, we'll need to produce 60% more food to feed the world. Doing that with farming as usual approach, we'll take a heavy toll on natural resources, causing us to focus on how we can sustainably increase crop production by using a range of techniques that are more in tune with preserving our ecosystems. Sustainable solutions to improve crop yield is currently a EUR 21 million business -- sorry, a lot that the EUR 21 million business for Imerys, it's expected to double by the year 2025. We estimate the addressable market size to be over EUR 200 million of mineral sales. Let's take a look at how we add value in this segment. Our wollastonite and diatomite based solutions provide biostimulant effects that increase the plant's resistance to natural forces such as pest and disease. The minerals make their way into the roots of the plants, making them stronger and improving the yield per plant. Secondly, expanded perlite provides exceptional water retention. Through targeted ore selection and tightly controlled processing, our expanded perlite can hold up to 4x its weight and water. This allows for efficient management of water with slow release into the roots. The third area we focus on is perlite and diatomite minerals are the primary ingredients in our mechanical insecticide solutions. This is a natural alternative to harmful pesticides. Unlike traditional chemical pesticides, crop destroying pests cannot build immunity to these mineral-based mechanical insecticides, making them more resilient and less toxic to workers. Lastly, by leveraging our extensive mineral portfolio and technical know-how, we've developed various natural coatings that can be safely applied directly to fruits and vegetables. Our mineral-based coatings prevent crop damage by reflecting UV radiation and infrared heat, which allows the crop to stay cooler and reduce spoilage. The next steps in the area of crop improvement are increased penetration in different geographies, continue growing trials under specific crop efficacy and additional research around synergistic effects of multi-mineral solutions. The next area I'd like to talk about is natural mineral solutions for animal feed. These -- this is a EUR 29 million business projected to grow to EUR 60 million by 2025. According to the demographics of income distribution, agriculture commodity demand includes both food and nonfood uses. Global growth and crop production is projected to total 18% over the coming decade or 1% CAGR. Our minerals for animal feed primarily absorb mycotoxins. This is our bentonite material that -- sorry. Yes. Our mycotoxins specific grades of bentonite are utilized to condition the corn and grains. And what they do is they surround the -- basically the mold and contain it so that doesn't cause harm to the animals. Secondly, our moler-based minerals are used as a carrier where they are combined with nutrients and then dried and then distributed through the animal feed, making the nutrients much more efficient in getting to the entire substrate that's been fed. Lastly, our talc-based solutions are used as flowability agents that allow the animal feeds to be easily transported, conveyed and stored. Now let's move on to health care. Celpure, blood plasma filtration is the third focus for us. The Celpure product line is the industry standard for mineral-based blood plasma fractionation. An aging population increased treatment therapies and access are driving growth in this market. In fact, every country in the world is experiencing growth in both the size and proportion of older persons. By 2030, 1 in 6 people in the world will be aged 60 years of age, an order. And by 2050, this demographic will double. So what is Celpure? Well, Celpure product line is a high purity diatomite produced under strict GMP protocols. The ultrapure product allows for the blood plasma to be fractionated into a range of therapeutics. These plasma-derived therapies are used to treat immunodeficiency, hemophilia as well as other clotting deficiencies. Our strong customer relationships with the major plasma producers, proprietary technology and state-of-the-art facility, create a solid barrier to entry in this space. Our 3 largest clients have announced expansions and we intend to follow them with our third expansion later on next year. The next steps in high-purity filtration include working with key partners to determine the benefits of mineral-based purification to substitute membrane technologies in the next-generation biological drugs and vaccines. The final area in consumer goods, we will take a look at is natural solutions for cosmetics, our Imercare product line. Our Imercare product family addresses the continuing trend where natural mineral solutions replace microplastics and other chemicals and cosmetic formulations. Our mineral solutions offer a high naturality index. This is important to our clients because it indicates the percent of natural ingredients in the cosmetic. Imercare is currently a EUR 15 million business and it's expected to triple by the end of 2030. We estimate the total mineral usage in this segment to be around EUR 230 million, and we enjoy a strong position in this space due to our solid customer relationships, patent positions and multi-mineral portfolio. Today's product line leverages 5 different minerals to bring exceptional performance in areas of exfoliating scrubs, where our perlites replace harmful microplastics, mica, kaolin and talcs allow exceptional matting, opacity and makeup powders, and our diatomaceous earth is used as an absorbent for pollution protection. Natural solutions for consumers and health care is important business to Imerys. The segments in this space generated around EUR 700 million, second leading segment within the new Imerys is 22% of our top line. They tend to be less cyclical and more recession resilient. Additionally, many of these segments are supported by various megatrends, such as minerals replaced chemicals, increasing food output and supporting an aging population to name a few. Through our innovation programs, we are developing mineral solutions that address these market needs, which result in differentiated offerings with above average growth and profitability. Thank you for the time. And next up is Guillaume Delacroix, Senior VP, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and he will explain our exciting future development in lithium.
Guillaume Delacroix
executiveThank you, Jim, and good afternoon to all of you. We will now discuss Imerys lithium. To refresh your memory I have selected a few slides, which have been presented by Alessandro during our recent announcement on the EMILI project. We will additionally discuss more broadly the opportunities for Imerys in the lithium space. Let me start by giving you some background on what kind of growth lithium represents for Imerys. As explained very well by Frank, the world is moving fast towards net-zero greenhouse gas emission, this will in our mind necessarily need to address the reduction of fuel combustion engines for road transportation. This energy transition requires a very fast growth of the lithium-ion battery that we see as a winning technology in this respect and will therefore trigger a surge in demand for lithium. We expect that the demand for lithium in Europe only will be multiplied by 10 between now and 2030. As a consequence, Europe is today investing massively to adapt its automotive industry to the new electric vehicle paradigm. And as part of this move, Europe is creating a solid supply chain for batteries. But there is a big bet. Europe is today fully dependent upon imports for lithium supply. This has led the European Union to add lithium -- to European Commission to add lithium on the list of the EU critical raw materials. As you can see on the slide and in the best case, according to our estimate, not even half of the total lithium demand in 2030 will be sourced regionally. So 250,000 tonne out of 600,000 tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent. This is why in order to meet this largely unmet market need, we have decided Imerys to launch a landmark European lithium project, code-named EMILI. EMILI would provide 34,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide per year from 2028 onwards, making the Imerys Group a leading supplier of lithium to the European battery market and a key player in the global lithium industry. EMILI has at least 25 years of life of mine, and I insist on at least. I'll come back to it. The cash -- the cash cost of the lithium produced in Beauvoir is estimated between EUR 7 and EUR 9 per kilo. This estimated cost would be competitive and would secure an attractive return for the project in line with the group's long-term value creation goals. We have not indicated on this slide the price of lithium, but as you know, the price of lithium carbonate equivalent today is EUR 75 per kilogram, this number is expected to drop according to the consensus to EUR 20 per kilogram at the term of 2030. Some analysts and industry experts do not believe that such a rapid drop will happen given the marginal capacity added step by step to meet the demand is coming up with higher and higher marginal costs. The project in itself is estimated to involve a construction CapEx of EUR 1 billion. I'm also proud today to announce that EMILI project has been selected to receive the financial backing of the French government as we have been selected as a winner of the critical metal calls for project of the France 2030 program. This support will cover some of the development cost of the project. In order to support more broadly the industrial phase of the project, we call for and are working towards the prompt creation of an important project of common European interest, IPCEI by the EU Commission targeted at critical metals in order to provide financial backing to this project, which is so critical to the European Union sovereignty. If we now take a look at the future competitive landscape for EMILI, as shown in this list of projects, you can see that with 34,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide per annum, EMILI would be the largest lithium project in the European Union, and we would allow to power 700,000 electrical vehicles per year. If we now look at the timetable, as you can see, EMILI is large project, and it will be a multiyear project. Here are the key milestones going forward. Next year, we plan to complete our study on the deposit and on the technology. In 2024, we will launch the construction of the industrial pilot and complete the prefeasibility study of the commercial plan. In 2025, we will run the pilot plant with a capacity of 400 tonnes per year, whilst we finalize the engineering of the main plant. Thereafter, construction of the commercial plant with staff. By 2028, we plan to commission the site and start serving our customers with our European-made battery-grade lithium. One important project, one important angle of this project are the efforts that we have made and we continue to make to tailor the lithium production technology to the Beauvoir deposit. It's a technology which is very different from the Brine process that you might have heard about. Let's now look at the Beauvoir deposit in an itself. The results of the surveys carried out confirm that the Beauvoir deposit has very attractive concentration and quantities of lithium. On average, we have determined a concentration of 0.9% lithium oxide, which peaks of up to 1.3% lithium oxide, representing a total of more than 1 million tonnes of lithium oxide in the ground. The deposit is located underneath our existing kaolin quarry and its mine life is assessed as at least 25 years based on a production of 34,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide. The very good news is that the deposit does not end where we initially thought it would. It actually continues at depth and to the south. Further drilling campaigns are currently ongoing as we speak to assess the full potential of the deposit. We are very confident that we'll be able to extend the mine life well beyond 25 years. Given the aim of the EMILI project is to support greenhouse gas reduction and fight against climate change, the industrial implementation of the EMILI project can only be responsible by design. At all stages of the industrial process, we will, therefore, make responsible choices. We plan to operate an underground mine with waste [ truck ] largely backfilled underground to minimize environmental impact as well as noise and dust. An electrical fleet will be used to minimize emissions, save energy and improve health and safety. The transport of the concentrate from the Beauvoir side to the loading station will be done by underground pipes in order to avoid CO2 emissions again and the noise impact associated usually with transports by truck. At the loading station, where we will separate the ore from the water. The ore containing the lithium would go by train to the conversion side, while the water will be sent back to the concentration plant in order to maximize its recycling. We would like to settle the conversion unit in an existing industrial zone in order to minimize its impact. Last but not least, Imerys is committed to developing the project in accordance with the IRMA standard, which is the benchmark for responsible mining and involves a very high level of stakeholder engagement and of transparency. As you can see, building on its experience and knowledge, we at Imerys plan to launch a responsible project. Our responsible approach will, of course, cover the local biodiversity, respect for the environment and for the local communities, but we will not stop there. In fact, we target to produce lithium with half of the CO2 footprint of the typical existing hard rock lithium operating currently in the world. This will be possible, thanks to our industrial choices and also to our location in France, which has a low carbon electricity mix. With this project, Imerys aims to become a benchmark player and one of the top producers of lithium in the world by the end of this decade. A dedicated structure and a dedicated financing will be put in place in due time to support a rapid realization of the project. This could mean going along our partnering with industrial companies, these our customers, industry peers or even car producers or working with financial investors. The project aims at strengthening Imerys' leadership and expertise in lithium-ion battery components and complete its product offering, which includes carbon black and graphite as previously highlighted by Frank. In a nutshell, this project can be a game changer for Imerys. To finish off this section, I would like to open our horizons I would like to share with you an interesting map produced by the BRGM. The BRGM, the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières is a French geological survey. On this map, the BRGM has done some prospective work to identify 5 zone with high lithium potential in Europe. It is worthwhile to note that Imerys has an established mining presence in 3 out of those 5 areas. In particular, we have launched this year a holistic assessment of the lithium potential of our [ Corniche ] kaolin mines in the United Kingdom and have an initial confirmation of the presence of lithium within the boundaries of our British kaolin mines footprint. Should we confirm the economic viability of this lithium deposit in Cornwall, we will benefit there from a supportive local environment, a strong mining heritage as well as an established Imerys local presence. To wrap up on that topic, lithium is key to achieve the energy transition. The EMILI project will be instrumental in enabling this trend in Europe and other immerse locations might be of interest to develop lithium production. Thank you for your attention. I now hand over to Alessandro for the conclusion.
Alessandro Dazza
executiveI'm glad I don't need it. Thank you, Guillaume. Thank you to all my colleagues for this rapid view of some of our small jewels in the businesses. Let me wrap up. I'm copying the slides, which was the summary presented in the financial part. This is the new Imerys that we introduced at the beginning of the day. It's a dynamic Imerys. It's a growing Imerys. We will deliver 3% to 5% growth, organic growth in the future, we'll be more profitable than today in percentage and therefore, in absolute terms, and we do have clear targets right there. We will remain investment grade, it is a commitment, but we will also increase our return to shareholders. So this is for the, I would say, economic sides, but I believe a company is not only about money and figures. And that's why I added a couple of slides. Yes, we want to be the best in specialty minerals company, the leader in the world. But we have a role to fulfill and I strongly believe in it. It's not only about money. We want to unlock better futures, and it's not just the sentence. I think with our products, with our solutions, we will help address the global challenges of the greener and more equitable world. He will be part of the decisions that we will take even if sometimes and lithium is a very good example, it costs more. But that's what will be at the heart and the basis of our future decision. And we'll do it with values, which is again not only money. Number one is people. Every person matters inside our companies and outside. And all our behaviors will put people upfront, no matter what it costs, including profitability. Our customers will determine our future, even more than our operations and our minds. So we want to be their partner. We have to listen to what they say because they will take us in the future, and we need to help them in their journey, which very often is similar to ours, so we will help them. Collaboration is key. That's why I wanted my team largely here present because I'm not doing the business alone. I have 17,000 colleagues. I need each one of them to deliver. Otherwise, forget it. Performance will always remain a component of this company. We discussed which assets we have sold and the reasons why. What you don't see is that we have been selling other assets. We have closing assets. If you don't perform, you don't belong to this company. Performance striving for better is a must for the future. And last, as Leah very well presented, we are enablers. Sustainability is not only important for us. We help a lot of people and a lot of businesses and industries to address the challenges of the future. So these are very important values for us and that's why I wanted to share them with you. And a last slide to summarize, invest in Imerys since most of you are investors. It's a great company. It's very resilient. It was in the past. It is even stronger today. It has shown it delivers, good track record. It's the market leader. It's very diverse geographically and in applications. We have positioned ourselves for growth and long-term growth. [indiscernible] related to recessions to crisis to wars, it doesn't matter. The trend will go back and we will delivered with purely specialty minerals, very focused. We will continue to generate cash, not only out of the divestitures, but also from operating activities. So we will use it. We will put it at work in different ways as you heard, but it's a pillar of our future sustainability. We will not stop repeating it. It's important. And we will continue to guarantee return for our shareholders. Many of you I know are here in this room or on the webcast. That's why I believe it's worth investing in Imerys today and tomorrow. And don't forget there is untapped potential. Lithium for me is tomorrow is beyond the scope of this study, '22, '25, but it's there. There could be more. there is a trend towards natural resources, and we will be -- continue to be focused on external growth on top of what you saw here. As you know, you will hear a name the moment we sign a deal. So we will never tell you what's in the pipeline. But again, guarantee to you, we are working behind the scenes on a pipeline of acquisitions that will contribute on top of the growth you have seen here. So thank you very much again for your day-to-day and on the people on the website. I suggest we open the last round of Q&A. We are well ahead of schedule. So you are more than welcome to pose your question. And then I hope afterwards, to you will have time for a glass together outside.
Sven Edelfelt
analystSven from ODDO again. So 2 for me. I'm afraid on lithium again. If I'm not mistaken, in Beauvoir, you should have something close to 40,000 tonnes of lithium. And given the price, the current price, it should be well about EUR 200 million to EUR 300 million of revenue. Is it a fair assessment? And here, I'm not talking about tin [indiscernible] that is also present within the mine. And [indiscernible], if I'm not mistaken, could increase the value of Beauvoir by about 30%? That's the first question. Is it a fair calculation? And then the second one, you mentioned Cornwall. Thank you very much for that. If I'm not mistaken, there should be another 1 million tonne of lithium. So can you tell us how you can finance both project because, in fact, EUR 1 billion plus EUR 1 billion, it's EUR 2 billion? So will there be -- will there be a capital increase or more asset disposal to finance these 2 projects? If project varies obviously.
Alessandro Dazza
executiveThank you, Sven, for the questions. There are very interesting co-products in our Beauvoir, in our French future mine. Some are easy to develop or easy to value. And for instance, felspar, which is a very important product for the ceramic industry, where we are already active. So I'm sure we will valorize this one. And there are others, which today are not necessarily our strength because we don't deal with them. And one of them is, for sure, tantalum and tin [indiscernible], in French. I cannot answer you on the quantity because, frankly, I don't remember, but it is true there is a significant amount of tantalum in the ground. We are launching a project on how to extract it and separate it from the other minerals. The same is valid for tin. What is the potential? First, we have to find a technology -- we are focused on lithium. We found the technology to extract lithium from the mica, from the granite. We are launching a similar project now to see how and if we can extract it. It's a known technology. Today, most of the tantalum produced in the world, by the way, for the electronic industry is extracted from rocks very similar to this one. So there are already companies doing exactly the same. So the question now is to understand, shall we do it alone, shall we invite a partner, shall we partner with somebody to extract? That's why difficult to give you the real potential because I personally don't know. But it will be a significant addition to the overall project. And the same for tin at a lower scale, tin is a much larger market and the product itself has a lower value, but there is a strong presence. Even today in our kaolin, so above the ground, what we do today, we do have a bit of concentrate, which we sell in the market at a reasonable price. I think it would be great for France and Europe if the separation and the valorization of these very important rare metals could be done on this soil in France, in Europe rather than sending it somewhere else in the world. In terms of CapEx, as I said when we presented the EMILI project, we are 18 months too early to give you an answer. The Beauvoir is expected to cost around EUR 1 billion, we are in the scoping phase, so we can move significantly in one direction or the other. Can Imerys do it? Fundamentally, yes. Will Imerys do it? It's an open question. We have to decide if we do it alone, if we search for institutional investors, states or European institutions, which I believe might be very interested to make it happen or we partner. And I do not disclose a secret by saying that after our announcement 2 weeks ago, we received a lot of phone calls from many players in this industry that want to meet us as soon as possible. The interest is great. It could be industrial. It could be technology partners. It could be customer partners. We are really open. It is big for Imerys. So probably a partnership will be welcome, but we will decide when we know the real value of this project. And for this, we need to complete our study and our assessments. You add Cornwall, we are 1 step behind. We are still trying to understand, which is the same words that are used 9 months ago. We're still trying to understand how much lithium is in the ground, what's the concentration and if you can technically extract it. And if you remember, that's where the answers I was giving 9 months ago about the project EMILI. We are in this phase. Personally, I believe there is quite a significant amount, in less concentration than we have in France because the French deposit is really one of the highest concentrations ever detected in Europe. But as John rightly so said, we are in an environment where there is a strong mining culture, huge spaces, open minds. So there could be from the cost point of view, some -- rather some good news. So it's -- that's why we thought we should mention it because it's another potential for this group. Once we know and we will know the CapEx, we will decide if we need a partner for the second one or not, which is really too early. In 9 months.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd to follow up -- excuse me, on the question of Sven. So it means that I have got an idea of the partnership you are fencing right now, i.e., would take, for example, someone would part of the mine, who would buy part of the lithium reserve, let's say, 10% to 15% in exchange of CapEx. Have you got an idea on what kind of partnership you could fancy. And second question is from like, when you say it's far beyond 25 years in terms of reserves at Beauvoir. Shall we say that the overall estimated reserves are not above 1 million tonne, but rather in the region of 2 to 3 million?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveGuillaume, let you think to the second answer. The answer is the same. At the moment, it's too early. We have seen -- if you look at the projects that are today being developed in Europe, some have chosen to partner with customer for Stellantis. Others are rather looking for mining technology. So other have chosen a private equity. We are very open. We are very open. We are in the initial phase of the discussion, we have not taken this decision. And I'm frankly the moment you invite a partner, you share value. So you better know what your value is because you might end up giving away too cheap, something which is a high potential. And that's why among the lines of the slides, you saw that we might spend up to EUR 100 million, which is significant over the next, let's say, 18, 24 months to really get to the end, scoping feasibility study, pilot plant to really know what we have. And then we will -- I'm sure we will be able to cherry pick who's going to be our partner. And I'm convinced there will be plenty of options. Guillaume, how many years [indiscernible]?
Guillaume Delacroix
executiveI think it's too early to discuss that would not -- that would be a big trend. What we are comfortable with is that we have more than 25 years. We are doing the drilling as we speak. And we need a certain number of deals to have a representative sample. So we will get back to you as soon as we have the same level of comfort that we have today, meaning inferred resources. So this is what we have today for 25 years. And there is -- in the course of next year, we'll be able to qualify the statement I made today, well below.
Alessandro Dazza
executiveAnd what I would like to add on top. What is nice is if you remember the 3D drawing of the mine, the southern part is the red one. Red means higher concentration. So the deposits where we know it doesn't stop is exactly in the direction where the higher concentration is. So the good news is not only it doesn't stop, but it continues where the concentration is the highest, which is a very positive news.
Unknown Analyst
analystIt's [indiscernible] Thank you again for the presentation. But when we look at what you described as your growing businesses, the 1 you mentioned for which you provide this is a lot of detail. We have got the sentiment that -- and which contribute to 20% of your sales. Again, does it imply that we are -- we have to expect no growth on the 80% of your business, the remaining part of the businesses? I don't know if you get my point. I just took your point in your presentation and taking the growth you are expecting by a subdivision and considering 5% organic growth. And the remaining business is EUR 2.5 billion, and it implies that at the end of the day, in 2025, we remained stable at 2.5%. So is it fair assumptions?
Sébastien Rouge
executiveI'm not sure, and I will -- we can have a session on mathematics -- because I'm not sure I got it. If you look at 2021, which is the last available full year date in 2025, the specific single businesses that we have shown with numbers should contribute for around half of the growth, which means, for me, the normal business represents the other half, which goes back to my initial introduction, if we say 3% to 5% growth, I believe half of it will come from the market. Consumer is growing. Construction is growing. Automotive, I hope, will grow and even more because of the backlog that we are in here. Industry GDP should show roughly half of the growth, and the other half is extra ideas, projects that we have or we are building or we are implementing because the capital expenditure that Frank mentioned, we added 2x -- 2 lines. One went into production this year. One will start in January, February next year, and the other one at the end of last -- around the end of next year. So these are not dreams. They have been built. So that will give us the extra -- next to the market. I hope I answered, but that should be the math, half-half, I think is fair. And then, of course, you -- one will be more than the other. But overall, that's the assumption we have taken.
Mourad Lahmidi
analystMourad from BNP Exane again. When I look at next year, is it fair to assume that you will run negative volume growth in the continuation of Q3 and Q2, more than offset by pricing, as the price hikes that you've made this year will carry over next year? Hence, having a positive growth, mostly driven by price mix. Is that a good way to look at it?
Sébastien Rouge
executiveI don't know if it's a good way to look at it. We have not done our budget for next year. And if we put the question in a different way, what do we expect for next year? I expect for next year, a very slow Q1 and Q2 and rather strong H2 of the year. Europe dropping already in Q4 and then a bit more than other geographies on the back of energy inflation and potential gas shortages with the recovery in the second half. The U.S. is coming out nicely. So it slowed down, but still a positive growth. So I think the U.S. might be faster as usual, is very often, unfortunately, much more dynamic. So yes, a slowdown but a rapid recovery. Asia continuing to do well. So probably, all in all, yes, price effect, I'm sure will continue because we are solid on that side. I would say probably next year, if you look at the growth that we have been promoting and presenting will definitely on the low side next year. I have still not given up to show positive volumes also next year. But for sure, it will be within the long-term trajectory, a slow year. Typically, after a slowdown, there is a strong recovery, look at 2020, 2021. So if next year, we'll leave a bit of recession, I do expect that it will come back strong thereafter. So that's the way at the moment we estimate the next quarter based on a number of indicators supplied by institution is not only our guessing.
Laurent Runacher
analystLaurent Runacher from Exane AM. Just to follow up on the question of Mourad. On the weak volumes, there was maybe a one-off situation in metals because some metal companies have ended or have closed their plants because they could not produce the right cash cost, but we can see and spot today that many energy pricing, prices are going down quite quick. So have you got any early sign that some metal companies are currently reconsidering and to be back on track and reopen their plants? Because it's one of the factors that could help you to overcome and get positive volumes for 2023, I guess?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveIt's a very good point. And especially, it's a very good hope. Energy prices, being gas or electricity in Europe in the last 3 weeks, have dropped significantly, which is very good news. It means we will pass on to our customers. We will drop our prices but fine, fine. It helps the economy. So -- and it's fair to return to our customers, some of what they gave us in difficult times. A bit too early for 2 reasons. If you buy spot, you spot energy, you have it since a couple of weeks. So it's a bit too early to say it's going to help me in the next 6 months. Second, when you look today at forward, which means buying energy or gas for the nearby future. These prices have not dropped. So the spot price has clearly dropped, everything which is forward-looking has not moved much. So if I try to secure my energy for January, I still pay an extremely high price. So today, you buy day-to-day, you buy well. But -- does it mean you can plan, you can secure, you can hedge? No, we are not there yet. Typically, the long term is like interest rate long-term values adjust to short term or the other way around, depending on the trend. So too early to say. Too early to say.
Mourad Lahmidi
analystMourad, BNP, again. I think that during the lithium part of the presentation, you mentioned that you qualify for French subsidies, what kind of amount should we expect coming from the state?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveWe don't know yet. This is a France 2030 program launched by the state to support research. So it's nothing to do with the future CapEx. It's something we will discuss at a later stage. This one is mostly to sustain research and development. There are 5 winners, then the amount is not public. We are waiting to be communicated. The request was to support our ongoing research studies and eventually the construction of a pilot plant -- we have been selected. I think it's going to be significant, millions, but we don't know yet the amount. It should come any day. So it's a matter of probably but is -- this morning, we are still waiting for the amount.
Mourad Lahmidi
analystWhat about Europe?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveEurope is different. I say, as Guillaume mentioned, there was a significant program for this strategic common interest projects. There is -- there was one launched by the European community on mega factories, on battery factories, which effectively subsidizes the construction of a battery factory. Today, there is none on strategic minerals or strategic materials because there was no need. There was no project. There was no ideas or very few ones. So we do count and hope and we will support the creation of such system, you will be a European one, which will allow single member states like France to subsidize significantly large CapEx. So that's the second step. Today doesn't exist because there was no need. I'm convinced Europe, they define themselves a critical material lithium. So I'm convinced as the push for the giga factories to make batteries, they will push Europe to become sovereign in terms of supply of critical raw materials. So I'm confident that by the time our project will be launched, there is something significant in discussion. But it's open.
Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq
analystJean-Christophe, CIC. An additional question regarding abrasives business line, is historically a very profitable niche, but very cyclical, what could happen next year if we unfortunately have a recession? Could we factor a strong decline of the cash margin of this product?
Sébastien Rouge
executiveI am more afraid of the energy bill, this the one that you call abrasives, typically -- it's what we position in industry and equipment. Abrasives are used to make equipment. And is this smaller part which moves with GDP. So as you say, a recession, it will be negatively impacted the normal economy running, issued profit. Unfortunately, it is one of the highest consuming business in terms of energy. And we have large presence in China doing well. We have a presence in the U.S. doing well. And we have a large presence in Europe. Today, this business is suffering heavily from the energy bill. Once again, so far, so good. The question is how competitive will Europe and this business be tomorrow if we stay so high in the rest of the world cheap. So it's a small part. It's a small part of a small business. But for me, it's very symptomatic of the risks Europe is facing today. If we don't address the energy issue, Europe will have a competitive problem. This business belongs to the one, I would say, most at risk, fortunately small, but most risk in terms of competition. Otherwise, we'll continue to be profitable and well performing, as you see.
Sejal Varshney
analystIt's Sejal Varshney from AlphaValue again. So with regard to green cement, you've mentioned that it will enable a clinical reduction of 30% to 70%. So that's quite a wide range. And we already have some cement players which are offering such products, which reduced by 30%, the clinker reduction. So why do you have this wide range? And how do you think you could compete with the existing cement companies? And maybe where you could be -- maybe where you could outperform them?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveFirst of all, let me precise, we don't compete with cement companies. We give them something that helps them to reduce clinker or to reduce CO2. Today, there is the world of what we call drymix mortars that has embraced our solutions immediately. These are higher value, it's not portland cement, $100 per tonne. These are higher-value products where raw materials are less of an issue, but performance, constant reaction and so on is very important. These are -- and the testimony is a very good example. These are our key customers. We help them to reduce clinker in their formulation by adding our additives. And therefore, their product will become much less CO2 intensive. This is ongoing. This is strongly growing because everybody wants to reduce CO2 and by the way, improved performance, improved rapidity. We didn't present it. But today, this illuminate, which was the name before joining Imerys, today, the per capita consumption is, I don't remember, but 15-kilo per person in Europe, it is 7 in the U.S., and it is 0.5 in Asia. Why? Because in Asia, probably on the construction side, you can wait weeks and weeks for cement to dry. Labor costs are lower, you have time. People are patient. In Europe, you build, you want to enter tomorrow. And every hour that the construction team doesn't work, cost a fortune. So the penetration of the product -- of these products are just at the beginning, mature in Europe, double-digit growth in the U.S. still today, and immense potential in Asia going forward. That's why the large CapEx, EUR 50 million, new plant in India, just the beginning. So this is what you read. For me, there is a huge potential, which is still not there, which is portland cement, clinker, what you call clinker. So producing cement today has a very negative CO2 impact for the world for several reasons. There are solutions to reduce CO2. One of them is to use some of our minerals in different forms at different prices. But still, relatively expensive compared to the cost of clinker cement today. And don't forget, the cement industries enjoys credits on CO2. So they don't see the full bill yet as we all know. So tomorrow, there will be steps in this adjustment. There will be cheaper materials available first, but then they will look for performance, they will look for really reducing the CO2 and we have metakaolin spare lite. We have very interesting minerals. And we know it because some -- few very, I would say, ecologically conscious customers have already decided to use them. And we do have already millions and millions of euro sales on a regular basis to some of them that have already started to say, my cement will cost more, but I use perlite fines. I use metakaolin. I use your -- so that's what I was referring to in terms of potential. So top of the range, dry mortars and future potential, which is which regulations will help, I think, develop probably down the road a few years.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[indiscernible] from MUFG. Just a quick question on the EMILI project. You say that everything is -- all the options are available. Am I right to understand that you would, in any case, want to keep majority of this project? Or would you go as far as to sell majority stake to other funds and just keep the O&M part of the operations? You have several -- am I right to understand you would like to keep control, 51% plus? Or could you go as far as to get down below 50%? So you would get the project off balance sheet. You could keep the interesting portion of the operations. But I'm just trying to understand what you -- what -- how far you could go?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveAnd the answer is I don't know. We have not decided. If we want a partner, therefore, we have not decided how much we are going to invite the partner. I don't know. I think it makes no sense to separate the value chain. It is an integrated project, and it should be kept together, then the partner will join if a partner will join, will join on the totality of the project. I don't think there is a more interesting side than the other. What is key and is if you look at Imerys, that's what we do. We control the value chain from when we did the first shovel in the ground until we supply a $10,000 per ton synthetic graphite or carbon black or a high-value product. I think controlling the value chain is key. So the project will stay together with or without partners, with or without Imerys majority, time will tell. I'll be personally disappointed if we give a majority because it's France, it's our business, it's our mind. It's what we do every day. So I will push to find the right partner, but as a number two.
Unknown Analyst
analystSorry to push you on details. Is it fair to assume you could make up your mind as far as a partner is concerned in the way you want to achieve a partnership in 2023?
Alessandro Dazza
executiveI think it's a fair assumption. I believe, as Guillaume presented in the time line, by the end of next year, we will have totally assessed the deposits, totally assessed the technology and have a good visibility on the CapEx and therefore, on the cost of the product. So this is the moment where we will be able to really assess the full scale value of this project. Yes. It's not going to be Q1, but rather the second half by 2023 and probably launching a pilot scale industrial, which is several millions, we might already have a partner by then if we decide so. So next year is the year. Yes.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[indiscernible]
Alessandro Dazza
executiveNational -- France national decisions. As I said before, the program where we qualified in one is one of the 5 top projects in France is behind us. So the next one is not open. So the European -- potential European support for CapEx today doesn't exist for minerals for critical raw materials, but it is in discussion. It's not only us pushing and asking, but it is a discussion at European level. It needs the support of all 27 members. They did it for batteries. I'd be surprised if they don't do it for critical minerals. Otherwise, why do we have factories to make batteries if we don't have the raw material. But it's not decided. There is no decision yet. No more questions to me or my colleagues? Okay. Thank you very much, all of you for your attention today. Thank you for the ones that followed us on webcast. Imerys is here. We are here to answer your questions outside and always available in the nearby future. Thank you very much.
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