Incap Oyj (ICP1V) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

My name is Pauliina Tennilä, and I will be hosting this webcast today. From Incap, we have here the President and CEO, Otto Pukk; and CFO, Antti Pynnonen. Otto and Antti will present Incap's fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, after which there is some time for questions and answers. You can post your questions in the chat room already during the presentation. And you can also watch the recording of this webcast later on at Incap's website. So Otto, how was Q4 and the year 2024 for Incap?

I think, we had an excellent year. We achieved what we set out to do. And yes, let's go a little bit more into details in this in a minute or so. Very good. So can we get the presentation up and rolling? First of all, thank you from my side of all the interest that we have in Incap. As usual, it's always fun to see so many people here in the webinar. And hopefully, we can shed some more light on our report and you have the opportunity, of course, to ask questions. As I said, I think it was a successful year for Incap. We came out from 2023 and had a quite tough time with our destocking exercise. And that, of course, continued during 2024. But we saw immediately that we will have a growth over the year, and we have been growing quarter-on-quarter, fourth quarter revenue a little bit short, but still growing on EBIT and on profitability as we planned. And overall, I think we have now reached some kind of new normal where we are back in the volumes that we see are sustainable moving forward as well and have now completed this destocking exercise once and for all. What is nice to see is, we have a lot of new customers and new customer acquisitions and also that many of our company customers sees us as global now and that have led to a lot of different cross-selling opportunities between our different units. And this, of course, is something that we have been working on, and it's nice to see is starting to realize. Perhaps prepared to bring out some of the units, I think India, of course, had a strong result with the recovery there, but also U.S. unit, I have emphasized this on the last webcast as well that has gone over our expectations to have done an excellent result. We have, of course, continued to invest in our factories. We have new SMT lines as we have perhaps said in many of the factories. For us, key is to keep investing and have the latest technology in our factories so we can provide our customers with the latest technology. And not only if we're going to produce the latest technology, then we should have that to produce with as well, and that's our philosophy. Sustainability, of course, you have seen in that sense in our reporting and in our work that have taken a central role now. We have mandatory ESG reporting is rolling out. And this has, of course, taken a lot of our work with reporting. And the team have done an excellent job with that. We have had over 50 persons in Incap working with the reporting, and we have had a lot of interesting discussions and learned a lot along the way. Of course, as always, I want to emphasize on the team and these guys are rock stars that have delivered once again result and we have fantastic people all over the world doing the business for us. So this, of course, as always, is the highlight to work with wonderful people that are driven and motivated to contribute to the industry in many ways. So Antti, take it away with the figures.

Sure. So let's start now with the key figures for the Q4. We hit almost EUR 60 million in terms of the revenue, exactly EUR 59.3 million was the top line. The revenue increased by 39.7%. Profitability was on a very solid double-digit numbers, and that means 14.4% of the revenue. And in terms of the euro value, it was EUR 8.6 million. There, like Otto already explained, we can describe 2024 as the year for recovery. The chart here very strongly reflects on that one. So bouncing back from the lower levels and declining trend from 2023. And then here, we have the key figures, as always, summarized. And then, I would like to highlight the good development, what our teams have been doing in actually in all sites regarding inventory values and getting the inventory levels down. EUR 61.4 million is the new level end of December. Like I said, we have been also developing our cash levels. So it's all-time high for Incap, EUR 72.2 million, as shown in the middle. That is very, very strong and allows us to do in Incap all kind of activities such as developing our current customers and acquiring new ones and investing into the latest technology and our plans as we did during the 2024. But of course, the acquisitions is the big part of our journey going forward as well. And this -- this firepower is there for, for helping us to execute those plans. Personnel in Incap was 2,554, and that was the summary of those figures.

So looking at the outlook for this year that, we think we will keep on growing and that the revenue and operating profit will be higher than in 2024. That said, we see currently that the markets are a little bit in a waiting mode to see foremost what is happening with tariffs and other things with the new U.S. administration. So we expect the first half of the year to be a bit somewhat slower and -- but to pick up in the later part of the year. So overall, we think it's growth, but with a little bit of slow start. So that's how we see the future. But I think that's it then, and we are now ready for the storm of -- hail storm of questions. So shoot.

So maybe first question. In 2024, your revenue grew 4%. And in Q4, it grew 40%. So what kind of growth can we expect now in '25? And do you expect still quarter-on-quarter growth?

As I said, I expect the first half of the year to be a little bit slower. And so -- but yes, overall, we expect growth. And then, we have given the bracket for -- the higher bracket and then to a reminder for everybody. So higher for in Incap language means 0% to 20%. Clearly higher means 20% to 40% and significantly higher means about 40%. So within this, up to 20%, we expect growth on the year. But as I said, with a little bit slower start to the first quarters, I expect the market still to be a little bit hesitant and waiting, what are the new game rules, on how the different supply chain channels and so should work to tackle different tariffs and other obstacles in the market. But overall, I think the market is picking up.

I would like to make one addition on what Otto just explained, and that is something that when Incap gives the steering and outlook, it's always based on that current organizational structure we have in place. So for example, acquisitions are somehow added or simulated on top of that one. So it's an organic steering that we give. And in case Incap would acquire new businesses, then obviously, we would look whether this new outlook with the new company included will remain same outlook or do we need to adjust the outlook. So I saw this question earlier and I wanted to highlight on this one.

Thank you. Then a question about the EBIT. So the EBIT has bounced back in 2024 and quite well actually. So in Q4, it was 14.7%. Is this now the new normal level?

It's always, so that the EBIT varies depending on our product mix. So -- but of course, the higher utilization we have of our factories, the more our fixed costs or dividend on the business and the higher is also the EBIT in that sense. But it always varies depending on the product mix going up and down. So I would still say that the normal is in between the different numbers that, for example, we have seen here on the past year, and it will vary a little bit quarter-on-quarter. But of course, higher utilization means also better possibility to earn money. Antti, do you want to double down on that?

Yes, I fully agree on that one. And then, let's remain that Incap's strength is extremely lean and efficient organization, not only in very, very small and tiny headquarter level, but also that applies the same logic for all sites. And that gives us the possibility from this like managing overheads optimally to achieve these kind of levels. Let's keep in mind that when we had the all-time low point in 2023, the Q4, and we had low levels in some of the units, we still made very close to double digit, 8.7%. And that's just the background of Incap's model is the strength and allows us to do this good profitability. End of the day, the product mix, like Otto explained nicely, so that's defining the -- whether it's 13%, 14% or 15%. But yes, we need to color on that as well.

Thank you. And the next question then, you highlight new customer acquisition in your report. Can you mention any specific sectors or countries? Where did you get them from?

Yes, we have had -- if you have look at our units, we have had growth in almost all of them in that sense. And so there have been a lot of different sectors. And so -- but perhaps to pinpoint some, the defense industry clearly has been growing, and we don't have a big share there, but for sure, that has been a growth. Then we see cross-selling opportunities, for example, for our Indian unit in U.S. and there we have had a good development. U.S. market itself, also good development in general in many sectors, including, I would say, industrial and utilities and this kind of sector. So I wouldn't say that it's now super sector specific. It has been a good growth in many different markets and in many different segments. But yes, if I want to bring out something, for example, defense, I think, is a good example.

Then there are questions about Q4 in specific and the question about the Indian factories. There are three of them in India, as we know. So how would you describe the capacity utilization in those factories in Q4?

Yes. All of our three factories are working in India. And in that sense, we have, of course, the increased utilization of those. We still have capacity. We still are filling it up and working with customers to fill out the third factory. As I have mentioned many times before, it's -- we always try to have some kind of overcapacity. So we have a possibility to grow and so -- and that goes for now as well. But it's not so that you have an empty factory. If you walk around, it seems quite busy, but there's still plenty of room.

Still about Q4. So there's a question about the seasonal variations and how did they affect Q4 and also about the strong cash flow in Q4. Could you explain a little bit what has been the driver? Are there any positive one-offs, so to say, in Q4?

I think, when it comes to seasonal like variations, of course, we had a quite long Christmas break, and we have had several of the units resting in a week or even 2 weeks. So that, of course, impacts also when the holidays are, if they are on weekends or midweek or when they are. But that is always so it's a little bit up and down. I don't know, Antti, do you want to comment on the cash flow and cash collection in as well.

Yes. Of course, there's a good starting point for that one is actually a very good profitability that, first of all, we had in Q4. And then, of course, the cash flow was positively impacted by the change in some of the net working capital items. So let's take an example like I explained on my slide earlier that the inventory levels are going down and that immediately shows a positive effect in the cash flow. Also probably wanted to highlight that Incap is, in that sense, in a good position that when, even if we have had this -- the growth in our business and figures as was shown compared to the comparison period, we have still been able to grow and grow profitably and then, also collect the receivables. So we haven't had any like credit losses or long-term customers that have postponed their payments, but we have been able to collect the receivables and all this end of the day impacts on the positive cash flow.

How about the largest customer? And how much was its share in Q4 of the revenue?

Yes, the largest customers have been growing and Q4, we had quite a high share. Well, Antti, do you have the numbers on?

Around 40% is the number. We didn't disclose it as part of the Q4, but it's around 40% and more customer-related splits will be announced during -- or within our annual report in financial notes.

All right. Maybe we will move. There are several questions about M&A opportunities. And there's -- maybe the first one, could you elaborate on the type or size of acquisition that you're looking at? And how do you think about valuation, including potential synergies?

Yes. No, what we have said in Incap is that minimum acquisition, of course, we also look at if there is smaller acquisitions that are close to our existing units that we can do so-called bolt-on acquisitions. So that is one trend that we are looking on as well. But if we then talk on a more strategic level on larger acquisition that we and Antti are working on, then we have said that to be able to operate in our decentralized model, then the unit needs to be somewhere EUR 20 million, EUR 25 million in minimum in revenue to be able to carry the different accounting and engineering and different HR and whatnot, the different support structures, they need to operate independently. So that is a minimum. But of course, being a lean organization, then we think a lot about the U.S. concept of bang for the buck in that sense. And for me and Antti to -- and then, for our team to work on due diligence, and of course, the work is the same if we do a unit that -- a stand-alone unit, for example, that is EUR 25 million in revenue or a few -- or there bigger factory that is EUR 50 million or EUR 100 million or whatnot. So of course, we prefer bigger targets. That said, there are not so many out there that are on a sizable. So the EMS industry in general, looks so there's a lot of small companies and the larger the companies get there are fewer and fewer. But of course, when we are hunting, we try to hunt on big targets. What is equal to all targets we're looking on that is that we don't want any turnaround cases. We want profitable business and the business that we see will bring value to our shareholders. So evaluation should be so that it's value creating for us. And we normally in our evaluation models don't calculate in synergy effects and so to any extent. So stand-alone, the unit also should be able to contribute and create value. So we are a little bit picky. And that said, we have had -- so far, the acquisitions we have made have been successful, and we tend to keep it in that way as well. Antti, do you want to add something?

Well, like we had commented in our release that we have a clear plan, robust M&A pipeline. So we are constantly working like Otto explained, we have a good network with different stakeholders like advisers and all kind of analysts that are supporting, for example, in different M&A phases, we need different expertise, whether it's in a due diligence phase, you need some legal advisers or financial DD team and tax DD team. So we have an M&A pipeline is strong in place what we have here. And then we have targets in different phases, some of really early phases. And the key is that we keep looking at and then hopefully, we give ourselves a higher probability that when we have the more we have in the pipeline and in the later stages of the potential transaction process. So we will inform, of course, the market as soon as something gets completed, but we are working on it.

And there was a question about geography as well. And there, we don't exclude anything. I think, of course, in Europe and Germany and Central Europe and so that where we are not so well represented today, then, of course, that is always on our radar. But also U.S., U.S. market, we have dipped our toe in, and we see that it's a market with excellent potential and growth opportunities. And I think there, we are only started in that sense. Southeast Asia is also something we are all looking into. And so, we have a quite broad look when it comes to geography and so on. And I think -- no, let's see. We are quite confident in the work we are doing and sooner or later, something will hook. It always takes two to tango. So we need also the counterpart to agree upon our valuation. And of course, if we don't want to overpay, then that always is a negotiation point. But no, in that sense, I'm optimistic.

Yes. And at the moment, we have seen activity in the M&A, market is quite busy in that sense that there was some period years ago that it was really, really quiet, but now it's definitely it's picking up. And like I explained, we have a lot of things going on at our end, and that's, of course, because there are targets available. So...

Maybe one more question about M&A. Is it easier now to tango then if -- is it easier to agree on the valuations now that the -- most of the AMS companies have weaker figures in the books now?

It's always -- we look a lot of how to market multiples and also when we do evaluations. So we use -- among other models, we also do that. Depending on who is the owner. So if the owner is a privately owned business and if somebody is baby in that sense, then they don't care so much about market evaluations. It's -- they look at it differently. So it all depends on how, I would say, that it's never easy in agreeing upon a price that makes sense to both parties in that sense. And we do it, I would say, without emotions and in many cases, if there's privately owned companies, there is a lot of emotions in it, which is totally naturally understanding. So then we can. That said, I think Incap in general are considered one of the, I would say, a good buyer, because we run decentralized. We don't have a wish to come in and slaughter a unit. We want to keep normally the management and keep on the business in that sense. And that is less, I would say, frightening than some other companies that might come in and wanted to slaughter and move and do a lot of craziness in with the business they acquire.

Yes. And then, when it comes to the structure of M&A deals, quite often when we have different opinion about the near future or the target has their view and there's a gap. So we quite often, we want to negotiate some kind of earnout structure. So try to bridge the both parties and also then mitigate the risks element. The ones who have been following Incap near so, the two cases from the past, both has had this earn-out structure and I think, that is really, really nice way to try to get a common understanding and really get the deal done.

A topical question about possibilities in defense industry and Space Technology. Do you see possibilities for new customer acquisitions or orders in these sectors?

Yes. We have seen a growth in our existing defense customers and also in, there is possibilities in new and that we are working with the teams on exploring those opportunities and making those happen. So yes, of course, we see possibilities there.

Then there's a question about the dividend and eliminating the dividend. Are you -- what's the rationale behind it? And I guess we were talking about that already, but maybe to -- maybe with the dividend.

Yes. No, they, of course, they are paying the dividend or not, that is the Board's decision and not us in the management. But we still see ourselves as a growth company, and we are having active pipeline with M&As and so, of course, from a management point of view, then it's positive that we have money to operate with, and we still believe that we can create value in that sense for those -- with those funds as well. So that's perhaps the short answer to it. But of course, it's a Board who proposes to the general meetings, the question of dividend and not to mention.

Maybe one more question about geographic. So you mentioned that you have little exposure to the Nordic EMS market. What are the benefits of that? And what do you mean by that?

Yes. We wanted to a little bit highlight that. And maybe it was a question actually came up. We were on a roadshow here with Antti in January in Copenhagen. And we are very often we are compared to our Nordic listed peers. But the fact is that Incap, we have only one factory operating on the Nordic market, and that is the Estonian factory. So roughly EUR 30 million revenue we have in the Nordic market. And the rest we have in other places around the world. So it's not always a fair comparison to look at Incap when it comes to market trends in Scandinavia and so, because we are only partly or only, even just a little bit influenced if there is a slow economy, for example, in Scandinavia or not. Even if we are a Finnish listed company, then our business is done in other parts of the world.

A little bit related to this, are there geographical differences in demand outlook for '25?

I think currently, as I said before and in our outlook also stated that the market is hesitant. And I think, that is all over the world currently that I'm not worried in that sense about it. Basically, it's -- once the market knows the rules of the trading that how it's done and the different kind of supply chain and so we will adapt to it in the end of the day. But market is a little bit hesitant, due to that we don't know where the tariffs will be and how the different trade relations and so will develop. And we see that from many of our customers as well. We are quoting from different units. So they have alternatives to sell into different markets from different channels. And we are well positioned. We have units within U.S. and outside the U.S., within EU and with outside EU, and we have some paying room there. So I'm not worried, but market is a little bit hesitant. And I would say that, that is all over the world. That said, there is positive signals on the market. And as our outlook states as well, we believe in growth this year, and that is due to the positive, but a slow start until we have settled the shakedown that is being done politically currently and with the new U.S. administration, I would say, making themselves hard and getting used to the new role.

Thank you, Otto. I think this is a good place to start to wrap up. And before I hand it over to you, Otto, I just wanted to remind everyone that you can subscribe to Incap's stock exchange releases, press releases and the IR calendar on the web pages, the IR web pages. And that way, you can keep up to date about the IR in Incap. So Otto, would you like to summarize Incap's here once more?

Yes, I will. So once more, thank you for the interest. It's nice to see so many people listening into the webcast. As Pauliina said, the information is available also in our homepage, and you can subscribe to it. And we are always happy to answer your questions. And so as long as we're not in the silent period, then reach out to us and ask, and we always try to take the time. But thank you for the interest in Incap. And this time, next release, it's quite soon already in that sense. The time is flying. So looking forward to that and having the same good relations with you guys this year. So thank you very much.

Thank you very much, everybody.