Industries Qatar Q.P.S.C. (IQCD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and welcome to the Industries Qatar IC Q2 Second Quarter 2020 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Bobby Sarkar. Go -- please go ahead, sir.

Hi. Hello, everyone. Good afternoon. Good morning. This is Bobby Sarkar, Head of Research at QNB Financial Services. I wanted to welcome everyone to Industries Qatar's First Half and Second Quarter 2020 Results Conference Call. So on this call, as usual, from Qatar Petroleum's Privatized Companies Affairs Group, we have Abdulla Al-Hay, who is the Assistant Manager, Financial Operations; and Riaz Khan, who is the Head of Investor Relations and Communications. We will conduct the conference with first management reviewing the company's results followed by a brief Q&A. I will now turn the call over to Riaz. Riaz, please go ahead.

Thank you, Bobby. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us. Hope you're all staying safe. Before we go into the business and financial performance updates, I would like to update you -- to mention you that this call is purely for the investors of IQ, and no media representatives should be participating in this call. Moreover, please note that this call is purely is subject to IQ's disclaimer statements as detailed on Slide #2 of the IR deck. Moving on to the call, on 27 July, IQ released its results for the second quarter of 2020. And today in this call, we'll go through these results and provide you an update on the key financial and operational highlights of IQ. Today in this call, along with me, I have Abdulla Al-Hay, Assistant Manager, Financial Operations. We have structured our call as follows: At first, I will provide a quick insight on IQ's ownership structure, competitive advantages, overall governance and BOD structure; secondly, Abdulla will brief you on IQ's key operational and financial performance metrics; later, I will provide you with insights on segmental performance and CapEx updates; and finally, we will open the floor for the Q&A session. To start with, as detailed on Slide #5 of the IR deck, the ownership and structure of IQ comprises of Qatar Petroleum with 51% stake and GRSIA being the second largest shareholder with 21% ownership. As detailed on Slide #4, IQ is credit rated by S&P with A plus and Moody's with A1 credit rating with a stable outlook. QP being the main shareholder of IQ, provides most of the head office functions through a service level agreement. The operations of both companies are independently managed by its respective Board of Directors, along with the senior management team. The BOD structure is detailed on Slide #6 of the IR presentation. In terms of competitive advantages, as detailed on Slide #7, all of the IQ's group companies are strategically placed in terms of a short feedstock supply, solid liquidity position with a strong cash flow generation capability and the presence of most reputed JV partners. In terms of governance structure of IQ, you may refer to Slides 47 and 48 of the IR deck, which covers various aspects of IQ's code of corporate governance in detail. I will now hand over to Abdulla Al-Hay.

Salaam-Alaikum. Thank you, Riaz. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us. To start with IQ's business performance for the first half year of 2020 is a pure reflection of challenging macroeconomic conditions, where an overall decline of 67% in terms of bottom line profitability was noted in comparison to the first half of 2019, as reflected on Slide #13. The financial performance was impacted by uncontrollable external factors continued from 2019 such as slowdown in the global economy, limited GDP growth along with unprecedented spread of COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing volatility in oil prices. All of this factors directly translated and increased pressure on commodity price for petrochemical, fertilizer and steel products. At the group level, the blended selling price declined by 5% compared to the first half of 2019 and contributed to QAR 693 million decline in the group earnings for the first half of 2019, as you can see on Slide #14. As detailed on Slide #12, the sales volume at the group level declined by 29% compared to the first half of 2019. Net decline and the sales volume was due to the change in QAFCO train 1 to 4 gas sales and operating agreement and mothballing of certain steel facilities starting from Q2 2020. The group production level were down on the first half of 2019 by 14%. This decline was mainly attributed to the periodic plant maintenance and planned shutdown and mothballing of certain steel facilities. In addition, as detailed on Slide #14, profitability was negatively impacted due to recognition of one-off impairment losses of QAR 1.2 billion related to the steel segment mothballing of certain facilities in Qatar. This was mainly offset on recognition of one-off fair value gain of QAR 1.2 billion on revaluation of 75% stake in the Qatar Fertilizer Company, QAFCO, as IQ now recognize QAFCO as a subsidiary with a 25% noncontrolling interest following expiry of JV agreement with Yara and QP acquisition of Yara's 25% stake in QAFCO. As detailed on Slide 42 to 45 in response to contain the spread of COVID-19, measures were taken to monitor that fluctuating business conditions and threats caused by spread of COVID-19 with a specific focus on protecting employees, assets and operations. Production volumes were not affected by COVID-19, as there were no plant stoppage due to any demand-related reason and COVID-19 spread expected for the planned shutdown of MTBE facility for a short period during Q2 2020 for 57 days due to commercial reasons. The MTBE facility is now back in operation, with the impact to the group company in relation to temporary shutdown of MTBE facility has remained immaterial considering its overall contribution to the group volume. Also, on the current the distressed situation was the relentless effort of our sales and marketing partner, the group insured all the sales contracts are effectively and efficiently secured and minimized disruptions to marketing, warehouse and logistics. Moving on quarterly performance. Compared to the first quarter of 2020, the group revenue declined by 37%, driven by lower price and volume. Net profit improved by 27% quarter-on-quarter basis, mainly due to reduced operating costs. Operating cost has broadly declined on account of lower production volume and recent optimization initiatives kicked off by all the operating entities within the group. The financial performance during Q2 2020 was also impacted by one-off impairment losses as one-off fair valuation gain. Moving onto the balance sheet. It has remained healthy with liquidity at the end of June 2020, remain robust with no debt to grow balance sheet, including $11.3 billion in cash and bank balances. Despite the challenging macroeconomic condition IQ free cash flow generation capability remains robust, and the group generated QAR 1.5 billion in terms of a free cash flow for the 6-month period ended June 2020, as detailed on Slide #15. Before we go into the segment update, I would like to highlight some of the key initiatives as detailed on Slide #40, which the group has taken to ensure our resilience and the challenging macroeconomic situation. These measures, including optimization, human resource structure, reducing direct cost in relation to utilities and maintenance, producing nonproduction-related expenditures, including sales, marketing, corporate and administrative expenses. Similarly, the group reviewed its CapEx program across all segments, including -- across all segments and identified CapEx items that can be either avoided or deferred without affecting the overall quality, safety, environment aspects and reliability of the operation. On an overall basis, our base case strategy will continue to focus on market development, focusing on capturing a new market, creating market arbitrage, bringing logistic cost savings to the group. We will also continue to focus on productivities and efficiency gains via ongoing cost-optimization program. I will now hand over to Riaz Khan to cover the segmental performance.

Thank you, Abdulla. I will start with Petrochemicals segment. As detailed on Slide 24, the overall profitability of this segment has remained under pressure with an overall decline in bottom line earnings of 54% compared to first half of 2019. This was mainly due to the softening demand for the petrochemical products in the key markets, excess capacities combined with unprecedented dual headwinds of COVID-19 outbreak and oil price decline. The blended prices in the Petchem segment declined by 24% on the back of weaker demand due to muted economic activities, which mainly led to a decline in revenues of 22% within the segment compared to the first half of 2019. Sales volumes were marginally increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. Production volumes almost remained similar to the last year as slightly lower production in PE segment was offset by higher productions in fuel additives segment. Coming on to the quarterly performance. The net profit seen a growth of 51% compared to Q1 '20. This was mainly due to the prior year OpEx reversals. In terms of segment revenue by geography, as detailed on Slide #25, Asia remains the main market for PE and MTBE, whereas Indian subcontinent remains a key market for methanol and PE. Moving on to the fertilizer segment. As detailed on Slide #29, the bottom line profitability declined by 36% year-on-year basis on the back of overall decline in revenues. The decline in revenue of 32% was mainly due to the overall decline in selling prices and change in revenue recognition methodology due to the new sales and operating arrangement for QAFCO trains 1 to 4. Production improved with an increase of 8% with overall volumes compared to first half of 2019. Based on quarter-on-quarter analysis, the profitability declined by 11% compared to Q1 '20 due to decline in revenues by 15%, impacted by prices and lower volumes. In terms of segment revenue by geography, as detailed on Slide 30, Americas remain the main market for Fertilizer segment, along with Indian subcontinent in Asia. Now let's discuss the steel segment where you may refer to Slides 32 till 36. During first half of 2020, the steel segment reported a net loss of QAR 1.4 billion for the 6 months period ended June 2020 compared to a net profit of QAR 147 million for the same period of 2019. The net loss after excluding the one-off effects of impairment would amount to QAR 164 million, down by 211% versus the same period of the last year. Selling prices were down by 3% compared to first half of 2019, driven by weaker demand on account of COVID-19 pandemic, which led to muted construction activities. Sales volumes have declined against a backdrop of softened local demand as many large infrastructure projects in Qatar neared or reached completion. The sales volumes were also impacted due to the management's decision of mothballing certain facilities with an intention to cater local sector demand only as compared to the international demand, amid higher competition and declining margins internationally. Nevertheless, near-to-medium-term prospects of the steel segment domestically remained encouraging. The operating cost remained higher as the segment sold some of the expensive inventories carried forward from the previous periods. So operating cost is expected to improve as the effects of mothballing on the operating cost to be realized over the next quarters. Based on quarter-on-quarter analysis, the selling prices increased by 10% compared to Q1 2020, amid management's decision to cater local demand starting from Q2 '20, where the prices of steel tend to be higher than the international markets. The overall revenue was down by 63% on the back of declining volumes. A recovery of 14% was noted, had we excluded the effects of one-off impairments. Mainly due to better margins available in the local markets as management decided to concentrate on the local market starting from Q2 2020 following the mothballing decision. The profitability also improved on account of recent optimization initiatives started since Q2 2020. In terms of segment revenue by geography, as detailed on Slide 33, Qatar, along with Asia and Middle East, remains the key market for the segment. Moving on to Slide number 38, which relates to CapEx and cash flows. An important point to note here that cash flow and CapEx figures for the years 2020, '24 are based on 2020 approved budget and business plan, which are based on the expectations of the market conditions and the commodity prices prevailing in the start of the year. With current market conditions and commodity price trends, the forecast, as detailed on the same slide, cannot be relied on with absolute certainty where the actual realization of these figures might significantly differ as compared to these projections, subject to macroeconomic conditions prevailing at that point of time. Now we will open the floor for the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions]

Sorry. Excuse me, operator. Let me just jump in. This is Bobby Sarkar. Let me just jump in and ask the first question before we open the line. A few questions, okay? Guys, just had a question with Steel segment. You reported a slight loss, if I'm not mistaken, on a normalized basis, excluding the impairment charge this quarter. So I would like to know if the mothballing of the plant happened as planned in the beginning of second quarter. Or were there some phased mothballing and restructuring of the suite operations, that kind of led to a lower-than-expected profitability for the quarter? And then just in terms of the gas processing agreement for fertilizers, can you please provide us an update as to how you see or when you see this being replaced by the standard agreement that you have forecast to file in 6? And how that would impact, if you can, on margins?

Thank you for your questions. I will start with the Steel segment. As you are aware, that steel results during the latest period were under pressure. So we have positively responded to the market, where we have shown our flexibility and mothballing the facility to reduce our operating expenses and to produce the necessary amount to cater the local needs in Qatar. So we have mothballed the facility during the Q2 of 2020. As happened in the second quarter, we're going to see the impact, the positive impact of that mothballing during the next period, where we have reduced our operating cost. So the impact's going to be shown -- it already partially felt in the second half of 2020. I mean, the second quarter of 2020. Where in the second half, we will see even further results due to the mothballing of that facility. We have recognized an impairment cost in relation to this mothballing. As you're aware, we can get back to the operation once the market improve, where the price improved, where the demand will improve. This will require us 3 months to get back to the fully operation as before. In terms of the gas processing agreement, as you are aware, we are still factoring the temporary agreement where QAPCO acts like an agent to QP. This is a temporary agreement. QAPCO has received the final draft of the new gas agreement and negotiation between QAPCO and Qatar Petroleum. They have not arrived to the final results. Once the final results then reflected, we can announce to the market. But it should be done soon during 2020. I hope I have...

Maybe, Bobby, I'll just add to what Abdulla has said, with regards to the gas price, the new gas agreement should kick in 1st of July. This is what QP has offered to QAPCO. We're still negotiating the terms on the pricing. And whenever that's been concluded, it's going to be announced. However, whether it starts on the 1st of July or 1st of August, it's something that we're yet as well to negotiate.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question.

Yes. This is Sashank Lanka from Bank of America. I have a couple of questions here. Just trying to understand your Steel segment margins. We are seeing iron ore prices pretty high over the last quarter or so, and it seems like the outlook for iron ore prices to remain high, remains. I'm just wondering, given you're not fully integrated, is that high iron ore prices impacting your margins for the Steel segment? The second part of my first question is, we know local steel prices are higher than the international market. Could you give us a sense of the range of steel prices you're seeing domestically? And what's the delta right now with the international market? That's the first question on the steel part. On the Petrochemical side, obviously, Asia is a big market for you. With the lockdown being lifted in China, I think, from the second quarter, are you seeing a pickup in demand there? And how has the trend been in the third quarter specifically?

I'll answer some parts of the questions and maybe Abdulla and the team can answer the rest. With regards to the iron ore prices picking up and affecting our margin, that's correct statement. And that's what generally has affected our performance by producing and selling internationally. And that's predominantly related to billetization plan that we have as part of Qatar Steel. Now the focus is mainly going to be local and is going to be on rebar sales rather than billets. And with regards to billet production, it's -- we're enjoying now a flexibility where we can either buy the billets rather than produce them or reduce some parts of the quality of the iron ore that's received where it's giving us a bit of kick in and the margins, where it's improving margin slightly. So those are the arbitrage that we're trying to -- or Qatar Steel is trying to focus is buying billets versus producing billets and focusing on local market versus international. When you look at prices, the team may better answer what was the prices achieved in Qatar for the rebars year-to-date during the year and how it's holding off versus the international prices?

All right. Stefan, you can give us a flavor on the local prices versus the international price and how our price has been protected by the tariffs locally.

In terms of local -- hello, can you hear me? Stefan here.

Yes. Yes. Go ahead.

Usually, historically, the local prices usually have a premium of around 5% to 10% historically. The premium comes because of 2 reasons: One is we have a protection when generally non-GCC export exporting to GCC because of the tariff of 15%. We have that protection. Second point is that Qatar Steel products are usually, because of this higher iron ore content, our product side in terms of quality, we feel better. We produce better steel that commands a better price. So these 2, as a result, our products demands a better price. So as a result, our product prices commands 10% to 15% margin compared to the global prices. Riaz, correct me if I'm wrong, in the last year or the last -- fourth quarter of 2019, when we checked the price difference, it were around QAR 150 compared to Asia, the Qatari prices?

It was somewhere $100 to $150.

Yes. $100 to $150 between Doha and international prices. The main reason...

Right. Right.

Yes. These were the 2 reasons: because our raw material is 60%, 65%, which, as Mohammed said, we use this raw material to produce here, which end up being producing better quality iron; and the second thing is the tariffs. So it ends up in -- we get that margin. And we are continuing to sell, focusing on Doha with the volume of around 800,000 metric tons and focusing only on Doha. We will continue to enjoy that amount of margin domestically in terms of prices. Hope that answers that part of the question. And international prices are, I believe, currently around $400 to $425. And currently, we sell in Doha around 520s, if I'm not mistaken.

Thank you. Can you please repeat your third question? Are you talking about Fertilizer segment or Petrochemical segment?

I mean you could answer it both for petchems and fertilizers, but I guess, more on the petchems side because I'm assuming the demand on the fertilizer side is relatively more robust. Are you seeing a pickup in demand in -- on the petchem side with China lifting its lockdown? And obviously, Asia is a key market for you. So just wanted to understand how are you seeing the demand trends in the third quarter so far.

We believe now the countries started to reopen again, where the demand will be definitely better than the previous months where we have the -- the global market has faced a lot of uncertainty where the supply and demand had an imbalance. As of now, we are working very closely with our marketing agents. We have not been informed of any interruption to our production that's in relation to the supply and demand. So we are assuming that the demand is there for both the petrochemical and fertilizer. And we should sell whatever we have produced. I don't know, Stefan, if you want to add anything.

The other point is with the lockdown is getting eased, most of the Asian market, especially China, as Sashank said, markets are getting eased down. And India is also, despite, there is -- the number of cases have been increased, but still they are also gradually easing the lift -- is easing the lockdown. And India and China being 2 of the larger markets for petchems, we also expect more volumes to be shifted or shipping to those 2 markets. And you would see that from our sales volume, which has not been impacted because of the pandemic and we expect the production to flow as it is. And as we wrote in our earnings press release, except for the unplanned shutdown in the fuel additives, the rest of the plants were operating as planned. And even the NTP shutdowns, we reversed it once the NTP crisis were back to the normal. So we expect the third quarter, the volumes and prices to be robust and the market to recover better than Q1's and Q2's. Hopefully, I answered your question, Sashank.

We will now take our next question.

This is Rajat Bagchi from NBK Capital Kuwait. What could -- how should we think about dividend this year where earnings have gone down in line with the softness in product prices? However, IQ is a debt-free company with tons of cash. So how should investors think about dividends for 2020? One more question on the steel. I just -- I'm just trying to confirm whether I got that correctly. So whatever was the spread on the steel business towards the second half of Q2, did you guys confirm that it was, you were already seeing a bit of breakeven or profitability for the steel business? Just wanted confirmation on that.

Okay. In relation to the dividend this year, that's all depend on the final result of the profitability of this year 2020. Usually, the Board of Directors of IQ will discuss among themselves the dividend. So it all depends on the performance and depends on the division that they're going to take. We understand that we stand on our good position of cash. Also, the Board are screening for opportunities, where they want to invest the cash and they get the maximum return to the shareholder. And we always keep in mind that they want to go with a safe investment where they can have the maximum value return to the shareholders. So dividends, this is something that will be discussed during the year-end of 2020 with the Board. In relation to the Steel business. Yes, we see there will be a better profitability. We are hoping that the price will get better in the next 2 quarters. We have optimized our cost where the unit should perform better than before. I hope that answers your question.

We will now take our next question.

This is Faisal Al Azmeh from Goldman Sachs. Just a few questions on my end. The first is just a follow-up on steel. Just when looking at utilization rates on Slide 17, the 61.4% in Q2. Is that post the mothballing? Is that from the new capacity slate? Or is it a mixture of a bit of production at the beginning of the quarter, and then it went down as you mothballed those assets? So if you can just give some color on what the 61% is reflective of. My second question is just a follow-up on the dividend question. Just when we think about, obviously, this year -- or historically, you've always linked the EPS to the earnings per share. Could this year be an exception where the Board would look at the free cash flows rather than EPS? That's just something that we would appreciate some color on. And then finally, just looking at CapEx into the second half of next year, is there room to cut more CapEx in your view? And any potential for cost savings across the group? Any color on that would be quite helpful.

With regard to the Slide #16, Riaz can provide the comments.

Slide 17, if you look at the utilization rates from last year.

It's 16 or 17?

Yes. The decline in operating rates is mainly related to the mothballing of facilities in Qatar. So it was 88.5% in Q1. And when we start to go for this mothballing, we reached to 61.4%.

Okay. So this is effect of the mothballing effect. But when we look at the new stated capacity, the effect -- how much of the new stated capacity -- what was the utilization rate for the new capacity base that you have?

So actually, we are targeting with almost 800,000 metric tons per annum in terms of capacity in Qatar operations. So this reflects the overall Qatar Steel capacities, including the UAE operations. And that's why you're seeing a decline.

And when we think about the current run rate in Q3 of that 800,000, are you reaching what level at the moment?

Yes. So there is no planned shutdowns there in Q3 as what we understand from the local management from Qatar Steel in Q3. So the run rate will remain the same as what was there in Q2.

Okay. And just a follow-up on the dividend...

Yes. In relation to the dividend, as the Board's going to look from the earnings per share, all from the free cash flow generated. As of now, up to this moment, the group generated a really good amount of the free cash flow amounted to QAR 1.5 billion. But I really don't have an answer or I cannot comment on the Board decision that they will take during the year and either they're going to go by the earnings per share or they're going to look at it from different angle where we'll -- we're going to look at it from the free cash flow, I really don't have an answer for this question since it is a Board decision. In regard to the CapEx that the group company that cannot contact. We're supposed to receive a dividend for the CapEx that was submitted at the earlier for this year. So there is a lot of incident happened during the year, where the oil price remain at the low curve the pandemic of the COVID-19 also came. So CapEx asset changed. We're supposed to receive our revised budget and plan during the next period, and we should update our IR presentation once we have this information available. However, we -- definitely, the operation level are going to either take whatever necessary capital project to be conducted. I don't think we do have any capital projects going to happen this year. Otherwise, they're going to defer a project to the next period where we have a better pricing and better market where we can conduct the business as usual.

And just in terms of cost savings, do you see any room for further cost-cutting across the group that would provide certain saving?

Our organization is a very lean organization where we have worked on a lot of cost optimization and this is an ongoing activity where we always look at our costing and we monitor this costing. So we have put a great effort to reduce our costs. We have also proven our flexibility where we mothballed the facility when acquired, just to enhance the performance of the group. So I think we are in a good position.

We will now take our final question.

This is [indiscernible] from [ Ariane Investment ]. A few questions. The first one on the Slide 40, 4-0. There's your optimization programs. There are multiple of those. If you can shed light on what are those. Especially, if you can help me understand what are the feedstock and utility cost you mentioned here in the givings. And the other is if you can give like a dollar amount or the margin in terms of percentage of this automation program may result in? This is the first question. The second question, there's been cash on the balance sheet for many years, and the objective have been to acquire assets. There was a big opportunity this year when we had to sell this stake back to the founders Q3. And as an investor, we think it was a great opportunity for IQ to take over 25% stake on a consolidated basis. It would have been great. If you could help us understand what was the reason that I couldn't participate in acquiring it despite the cash level. And the last question is on the Petrochem segment. The Petrochem segment, what we noted, that the revenue have declined due to the price impact has allotted lower volumes. But yet the profitability has improved, I mean, compared to Q1. So if you can help us understand what happened between the revenue and the profitability. Currently the fixed cost is fixed or largely fixed. So it should -- lower revenue generally drives lower profitability margins rather than the higher margins. So if you can help me understand what happened in Q2 for the Petrochem segment.

Okay. In relation to the optimization program that we have. I believe if you continue on the Slide #22 to -- if you can continue on the slide from all 42 all the way to 45, you will see details of the actions that have been taken from the group company in relation to the optimization program. The optimization came from all aspects, where we find a better market for our products, where we have reduced our production when required as we have mentioned in the mothballing facility, Qatar Steel, and where we have also mentioned that MTBE facility were shut down for 57 days due to commercial reasons, where the prices were not attractive to us. Also, we have done optimization program towards the manpower resources, toward our operating expenses and towards our -- even our Capex. You may refer to that slide, where you can see details of what this group company has taken action to achieve this optimization program. With regard to your second question and the relation of the acquisition that happened between Yara and QP. IQ was not part of that deal. IQ has owned 75% of QAPCO. We don't know if the Board is willing to negotiate something with Qatar Petroleum. So this is -- as that is something -- we're going to announce it. But as of now, there is no action taken towards any of the acquisition for IQ. With regard to the Petchem performance for the Q2 versus Q1, although the price is down, the EBITDA number is down, we have improved our operating expenses where we have reduced the operating cost, where the net profit and the profitability of the Petchem segment shown a better number. I don't know, Stefan, if you want to elaborate more on how the Petchem performance compared from Q1 to the Q2.

One additional thing, the margins have improved on Q1 to Q2, mainly because of the improvement because of the markets have opened up, as a result the demands have improved which have helped the overall -- the petchem prices has slightly improved, which has helped. Other than that you have covered all the points, Abdulla. There is nothing much to comment upon.

Perfect. I hope we answered your questions.

Yes, just a little explanation that you could do. On the cost optimization in the Petchem segment, is it recurring? I mean is it like a one-off? Or this is something which is going to be there forever?

Yes, of course. We're going to look at our cost and where we are going. As we have mentioned, this is an ongoing activity that we are practicing. And the management is looking at the cost optimization, not just because of the current situation, but an expense where IQ is considering for all the period.

It appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Bobby Sarkar, I will now pass the call over to you for additional or closing remarks.

Okay. Great. If there are no further questions, thank you, everyone, for dialing in. Please get in touch with us at QNBFS or IQ for any additional details that you may require. The replay details for today's call are on the conference call invite. Thank you, everyone.

Thank you.

Thanks a lot.

Thank you.

That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.