Informa plc (INF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and welcome to the Informa November Trading Update. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Gareth Wright. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on this trading update call. The Informa November trading statement that we've issued this morning, increases our full year revenue and operating profit guidance ranges for 2022, whilst also confirming that underlying revenue growth in the 10 months to October has been over 40%. The increased guidance is driven by strong trading in our B2B businesses and specifically in Live and On-Demand Events across North America, in particular, as well as EMEA and ASEAN, which combined with the continuing growth in our Academic Markets business is delivering the increasing revenue and operating profit performance. Our 2022 reported results benefit from the strength of our brands and our market position in the United States, which has been a key strategy for us for around about the last 6 or 7 years. And both those factors benefited trading through the period, but also the strength of the U.S. dollar. Significantly within the updated guidance, the strength of our B2B performance across the U.S. and elsewhere enables us to totally derisk Mainland China in our guidance. So we're delivering our update -- upgraded 2022 guidance assuming no further Mainland China revenues through November and December. You may recall at the half year stage, we had assumed about GBP 80 million worth of revenue in Mainland China for the full year. So this upgrade in the guidance derisking China underlines the strength of the outperformance we've seen in the U.S. and elsewhere globally in the second half of 2022. More broadly, the GAP 2 program continues to deliver growth and acceleration in both our B2B Markets business and our Academic Markets business, with Taylor & Francis maintaining its 3% underlying revenue growth rates. Beyond Live and On-Demand Events within B2B markets, we're also continuing to make good progress with growing and expanding our B2B digital services revenues. In Corporate activity, our divestment program has completed ahead of schedule and has delivered returns ahead of target, generating expected post-tax cash proceeds of around $2.5 billion and an average EV/EBITDA multiple just under 30x. And to be clear, our upgraded 2022 guidance updates for all divestments and acquisitions that we expect to complete in the year, so now guides to a fully reported outcome. As you have seen also in the release, another encouraging performance by the group through the period is our strong free cash flow generation, which we expect to be comfortably over GBP 400 million across the year, despite the large working capital inflow we saw in 2021, particularly at the end of the year. The stronger operating profit and good forward bookings and cash commitments have both helped drive further strong cash generation in 2022. And together with the divestment program, this has significantly strengthened our balance sheet heading into the end of the year. This continued strong operating momentum we're seeing in the business, continued together with the incremental growth opportunities in Mainland China as that market reopens, puts us in a strong position for further growth heading into 2023. And combined with the strength of our balance sheet, we think it really gives Informa real momentum and flexibility into the new year. So those are the headlines from the trading statement that we've announced this morning. And I'd now like to turn it over back to the operator, and we'd be happy to take any questions that you have on the statement as a whole.

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question, Adam Berlin from UBS.

Just 2 questions for me. Firstly, I just wanted to get your thoughts on China. As you said, you've downgraded your guidance on China revenue for this year. Is that because the restrictions got worse as the second half progressed or just you didn't get the relief that you were looking for? And can you give us your thoughts on how things might reopen next year? And then the second question is on North American B2B markets, which clearly has had a very strong second half. Is there still scope to grow the North America event revenue into 2023? I know there's some pricing upside? Is there volume upside as well or has it just been so strong in 2022 that you're kind of back to kind of normal there?

Look, we're taking the reverse order. Yes -- no, I think in North America, there's definitely still the opportunity to grow further into 2023. The volumes are recovering well, but recovering at different speeds in different end markets. And therefore, I think there's a continuing opportunity for growth across the North American market. And even in the areas that have grown well in 2022, like, for example, boating has been a very strong market in that year. I think we're still positive about the opportunities for further growth in that area into 2023. Well, we will be looking to increase prices in 2023, where as you may remember that in some of the time since the restart from COVID, we've looked to hold prices just because that's been easier, simpler, operationally and encourage customers to reengage with the product, which has been a key objective of ours, but we are now looking to return to a more normal level of annual price increases driven by the value that the customers get from attending the trade shows and driven by improvements in the products. In terms of China. China was -- for 2022, was always going to be a story of what permissions we were given to operate events. You'll remember from the half year that we pushed a lot of the revenues back into the end of the year period to try and allow as much time as possible for the restrictions to allow operations -- the operational trade shows. But it's looking likely now, as we get close to December, like that's not going to be the case and that the restrictions will still be enforced, and therefore, particularly in Shanghai, it's unlikely we operate ratios. So that's why we've taken the decision to look at the guidance today and in the light of the strong performance elsewhere globally, we've managed to both upgrade the guidance and derisk the China out, which in the mix, I think, is a very strong performance. But in terms of trade shows generally in China, yes, we're both very confident in the model and the return of the model from what we've seen in 2021, et cetera. And also, we're confident in operational return because we do get the feedback from the authorities that they are looking to reopen events when they can. And therefore in 2023, we're confident that there will be upside from the China business compared to what we've delivered in 2022, but it will be a 2023 upside rather than something for this year.

We'll take our next question, Lisa Yang from Goldman Sachs.

Firstly, on the guidance raise. So you raised your revenue guidance by GBP 100 million, operating profit by GBP 15 million. Just wondering why the drop-through was only 15%? So was there maybe additional cost related to China that we had to take into account for this year? That's the first question. Secondly, could you please confirm how much revenue and profit you have generated from China through to October because it looks like the guidance is excluding any shows in November-December, but what have you generated so far? And obviously, given the recent headlines around government preparing for reopening, what is sort of like a sensible range of assumptions to take into account for next year? Or do you think you won't -- you basically will go without China for next year? That's the second question. And thirdly, could you also confirms that you've achieved 85% recovery already as of the 10 months. Any reason why we can't get to 100% ex China next year? That's the last question.

Okay. A few things in there to work through. We'll just taking them in the order then. In terms of the OP drop-through, yes, as you picked up or we clarified in the statement there, it's around about GBP 100 million of revenue and about GBP 15 million of OP. I think there's kind of 2 factors in there. One is that it really depends on where you are in the guidance ranges previously that have been given and where consensus was and where it fallen in those guidance ranges. So that definitely is kind of variable that we had to kind of address in trying to move the guidance numbers. But also, as I kind of touched on in the previous question, we've been really keen in 2022 to get customers reengaging with the events and getting them back to the events. So we've been making sure that the event experience has been really as positive as possible at the trade shows. And therefore, that has resulted in us, I would say, kind of investing in a material sense, but just making sure that this experience of the trade shows has been as positive as possible and therefore, there's been a bit more operating cost in the business in 2022. But I don't think that's a structural change in margins or anything like that, it's just been reengaging with the products in the year. In terms of China, in 2022, I think if nothing else operates this year, we probably say the China 2022 revenues are somewhere around about GBP 10 million in terms of what we've generated in the year-to-date. We have operated 1 or 2 small trade shows, and we've operated in generally outside Shanghai. So there's a little bit of revenue, but as you'll know from our pre-COVID numbers in Mainland China, a significant upgrade and acceleration in performance still to come from that business as we begin to operate more fully in terms of that portfolio. In terms of 2023, I think we'll wait and see a bit of how in terms of precise numbers. We'll wait and see how that begins to comes back in terms of the time of the year and where geographically in the country, it comes back. But the upside from GBP 10 million in 2022 to over GBP 200 million previously is a significant increase that we'd expect to see in the year. And I have some -- I've forgotten what your final question was?

Yes. Just outside of China, so the 85% recovery to 2019 level you've seen so far, any reason why we don't get to 100% next year?

Sorry, that's right, yes. No, I think in terms of -- I mean, look, we're seeing 100% in some parts of the business now. But certainly, outside of China in 2023, we definitely see another year of recovery and may reach 100% and maybe sort of heading back in that direction over time. The shows vary in terms of how much international attendance and how much domestic attendance there is in the shows. And I think the ones that are more domestically oriented definitely have a chance of getting back to 100% in the year. The ones that are more international are the ones that would be the drag and perhaps not getting back to 100%, either in terms of shows that have a lot of international attendance at them or shows that take place in destination events. So for example, places like Dubai, a lot of travel into there. And that's a big part of that market. So international travel may be a factor, I think, that stops certain events getting back to 100% in 2023.

We'll take our next question, Nick Dempsey from Barclays.

I've got 3 left. So the first one, I mean your comments about the momentum you're seeing into 2023 are encouraging, but can you be a bit more specific about the kind of forward bookings you're seeing it shows that you run in geographies, obviously, outside China? Are those pointing to a good increase in '23 versus '22 for those shows, but are you putting through decent price increases already in those booking conversations? That's the first question. Second one, a bit of a follow-on from that. If you were to see macro weakness when might that hit you? So I'm thinking if exhibitors have put down a deposit already when booking for next year, are they likely to follow through and attend the show? Can we have high confidence on that? Or could they just waste that deposit if they get to May or June next year and things are a bit tougher. So I'm trying to understand how much we can rely on the link between the booking pattern at the moment and what you'll actually get into particularly first half next year? Final question. Yes, just looking at that free cash flow running ahead of our expectations and yours, I think, do you expect an inflow now in change in working capital this year? And is there any reason why that would unwind into an outflow of any size next year?

Okay. Well, let's take them in -- I'll go with the free cash flow one first. Yes, so in terms of free cash flow for 2022, yes, we would expect that to be include a working capital inflow. It's not as strong as the working capital inflow that we saw in 2021 because obviously, that was the first year of the kind of reinflation if you like, of events, revenues post COVID. That was a very strong inflow but we would expect working capital to be fairly significantly -- inflow in 2022 for the full year. And I think for 2023, we would still think there will be a working capital inflow probably less than '22, which in turn will be less than '21, but still be a working capital inflow in '23. So I don't expect there to be a reversal of the working capital position in '23 that we're seeing in the business. In terms of the momentum into 2023, we're definitely seeing momentum in terms of volumes. There's been good rebookings at the shows that we've run in 2022, which it's kind of followed the kind of pacing culture, if you like, if you saw in rebookings pre-COVID. And therefore, that's definitely been a good factor in the events. As I said in the earlier question, we are looking to crystallize some price increases in 2023. We're really looking to try and do -- as we've always done, trying to look into -- look to increase it and link at higher levels of value that the customers are getting from the trade show. So we're looking to try and add extra products to the portfolio, add new digital services and let them see an increase in the quality of what they're getting alongside any price increases. And those factors, I think the quality of experience in 2022 and what they've experienced on the return post COVID is really driving the levels of rebooking that we're seeing in the business that gives us confidence looking into 2023. In terms of potential macro weakness, look, I think you're right that, that can come later. You can have rebookings and contracted revenues now that if you were to go into a period of macro weakness in 2023, could result in some people dropping out. But I think as we've said a lot over the years, when we see periods of macroeconomic weakness, the ability to attend trade show and the cost of attending the trade show really doesn't just come down to the space that you're buying from us. And we would fully expect customers to look to change other aspects of their packages in terms of the number of people they bring, the size and expense of the stands, et cetera, before they just refuse to attend the trade show. So we're still pretty confident that the bookings that we can see to date are a reasonable indication as to things stand at the moment of the performance into 2023. But look, we're not casual about the macroeconomic environment, as you'd expect. We're watching that closely, and we're really focused on trying to get the rebooking in as good a shape as possible going into the new year.

We'll take our next question, Sami Kassab from BNP Paribas.

I have my 3 questions as well, please, Gareth. And perhaps can you elaborate a little bit more on the performance of on-site rebooking? You started answering this question, but perhaps provide a bit more color on how the on-site rebooking grades compared to pre-COVID and whether they are big discrepancies across geographies, in particular with regards to on-site rebook rates? The second question is within Academic Market. What type of underlying revenue growth are you seeing for the pay-to-publish model year-to-date? Is that still up? And perhaps, how would you see that going into '23? And then the last question is on wage inflation. Can you share with us what type of wage inflation you're budgeting for next year across the group, please?

Well, thank you for the questions. In terms of the -- maybe taking the last one first, Yes, we're going through the budget process at the moment. And there's quite a lot of debate around where wage inflation is heading. We are obviously a global business, and therefore, we work across a lot of different countries, and therefore, it's a different answer in a lot of different places and a lot of different end markets in terms of where we serve. So we're having a lot of local conversations around that to make sure that we get this right. And it may well be that actually, there's different elements or there are different elements to it in terms of what is underlying inflation rates, what is a fairly or more normal cost of living increase. And we may look to break bit down and sort of focus on different areas in different ways. But I think in terms of financials, if you're looking at numbers, I would say probably the kind of sort of wage inflation you're seeing in the bigger markets that we serve is probably somewhere around about 5% to 6%. And therefore, I think if you look at what we're delivering in terms of revenue growth, in terms of our business, that wage inflation is at a level where we should be able to broadly protect the margins in the business from wage inflation. We're in a good position in that. We don't have large exposures to markets like the commodity market or large operational exposures to the energy market, which other industries have, and therefore, act as a bit more of a headwind on the margin, but that's not really our business. In terms of the academic business, we are seeing further improvements in the pay-to-publish element of the business. As you've mentioned, yes, that is growing year-on-year. And it's our -- one of our focus areas for further acceleration in that business as we look to target 4%, 4%-plus underlying revenue growth by the end of the GAP 2 period, and our focus is on increasing further the pay-to-publish area in terms of our growth potential and our growth rates. And they've done well in that market, again, in 2022, and we would expect further growth on that in 2023 above the average of what the business achieves as a whole overall. And then finally, in terms of the on-site rebookings question, I'm not sure we got a huge amount to add really to what I've said so far. I mean the rebookings and some shows occur a lot at the site, occur basically as you're running the show. In other shows, you are just taking expressions of interest and contractual terms are agreed a couple of weeks later. So that does vary sort of show to show. But really nothing different in the dynamic, I would say, in the latter half of 2022 to what you're seeing pre-COVID. Maybe some of the outright levels that are a touch lower still as we said earlier because of travel, but really, the dynamic looks positive for us around rebooking, and we think sets us up well for the early months of 2023.

We'll take our next question, Silvia Cuneo from Deutsche Bank.

My first question is on the upgraded guidance. It sounds like the potential contribution of both Live and On-Demand Events getting from China is excluded. And please, we see some major events for the rest of the year like for Furniture China appears to be scheduled. Can you please talk about whether at least some On-Demand revenue could be generated? Then second question, you flagged strong position in North America as well as growing monetization of third -- for the third-party specialist data. Just wondering if the 2 are connected? And can you perhaps talk a little bit more about in which markets you are seeing more monetization of the data side of the business? And then -- yes, actually, my third question was already asked.

Okay. Well, maybe in terms of the Growth Acceleration Plan 2 program and how we're thinking about that in terms of the B2B markets growth. And we're pleased with how that is going and how we are continuing to improve things there and how we are beginning to grow to a greater extent, our digital revenues there. I mean those are alongside of the Live and On-Demand Events revenues, which I've talked to earlier and said have been really the strongest part of our growth and the reason for the outperformance in the guidance and B2B Digital Services are a good element of that. growing in many cases, revenues that we already had some experience and skills and capability in, but expanding the areas that we're selling those into and growing them more quickly in the areas where we have grown than previously. So that's certainly, I think, a good part of the story as we head into 2023. In terms of the data products, our activities around IIRIS are continuing, and we're looking to continue to capture increasing amounts of First Party Specialist Data through the IIRIS platform. But at this stage, I would say we're not really producing significant amounts of incremental revenue from is. I think that's something still to come as GAP 2 evolves over the remaining period through to 2024, 2025 in terms of incremental revenues, specifically from data. In terms of China. Yes, so China, we are -- we have, I think, actually postponed a number of the events that were due to run later in 2022. I think the reality is these events will now be rolled into the 2023, examples of those shows. And really, what we want to do is, as we've done it all through the COVID recovery, we want to make sure we're making decisions in the best long-term interest of the brand. So you're running a small event in December, either regionally or outside of China that might get some revenue away, but not be that greater event for customers. We'd rather not do that, and we're rather focusing on a big event in 2023, that's going to give customers a great experience and it's going to really fuel future demand in the brand in the show. So we're really focusing on how we get the best experience in 2023 for our customers. And therefore, we have a number of the shows that we might be able to operate in regional venues on a smaller basis in 2022. We've looked to postpone those and push those back into 2023. One or 2 of the events may still say on their website so that they're operating in 2022. And I know a number of you check those websites fairly regularly. But I think that is kind of an evolving thing, and we think it's more likely than not that those events will not operate in the last months of 2022.

We'll take our next question, Steve Liechti from Numis.

I've still got 3. First of all, on China, just trying to think into 2023, and I'm presuming we don't get to the 1 January and all restrictions are lifted and permissions given to run shows in Shanghai and stuff. So just any sort of feel for the traditional skew of, let's say, there's GBP 200 million of pro forma sales in China, Mainland China, what sort of seasonal SKU would they have? Or am I just thinking of that in the wrong way because you can shift events around as we've seen in COVID, but any sort of feel for the quarterly seasonality for the GBP 200 million? That's the first question. Second question is, just remind us in terms of your event portfolio, what you would call -- how much of it is what you would call cyclical in nature? I don't know if you've done any analysis that you could share with us there in terms of -- we know you've got concrete and stuff like that. I'd put both in cyclical, too, but you may or may not do that. So anything you can give us there? And then finally, just on technology, given all the sort of issues in terms of the big tech platforms, headcount reductions and stuff like that. Are you seeing anything there in terms of the performance of your technology performance. I don't know, in terms of rebookings, admissions, whatever you're seeing canaries in the coal mine there in terms of that might come under more pressure into next year?

Okay, Steve, thanks for the questions. So maybe starting in the order you raised them. China into 2023. I mean how the normal cycle of events -- of our Events portfolio worked in China is that we basically had no revenues in Q1. I think, as a matter of fact, we might have run -- the normal cycle run 1 small event at the end of March. But generally, it's been no revenues in Q1. And then from April onwards, the season really kicks off, a bit of a break over the summer, but really, it's from April onwards. So in the normal cycle of events, you would have Q1 for operational matters to stabilize further and for us to get permission to operate events. But then as the China team have demonstrated their ability to move events around within the calendar has been one of the real strengths of their response to COVID and we would expect them to be able to do that still going forward in 2023. So if they began to feel that those Q2 events were under any sort of operational threat, there is definitely the opportunity for them to move them later into the second half of the year after the summer holidays. So we'll see how that evolves over time as we get into the new year. In terms of events, I think what we would say is some of our events service markets that are cyclical in nature rather than the events themselves being cyclical. Generally, we find even in downturns, there's quite a lot of desire and quite a lot of customer drive to attend the trade shows as a good way of bringing their products to market and a good way of seeing their customers and seeing their competitors and what else is happening with products in the industry they serve. So we definitely tend to see a fairly resilient performance on rebookings through the macro, but in some end markets, you could see a bit more of a cyclical move. So something like construction that you mentioned in terms of world of concrete, that could be a factor, although we're just getting specific for a moment, point out that in 2023, there is a triennial construction event that happens in the U.S., and that is running in 2023. So we wouldn't want to be looking at the world of concrete numbers for '23 and getting specifically focused on those numbers in terms of a cyclical market response because of the association capacitor event that runs in the year. But I think overall, we would be relatively confident that provided for some cyclicality in the end markets we service, we probably see a pretty resilient performance from the trade shows through a downturn. And then finally, in terms of technology, we are investing a lot in technology through the GAP 2 program and changing a number of the capabilities as well as the capacities we have in the business through using our technology. We've noticed the -- and seen the news around the redundancies and some of the restructuring on the big tech companies over the last couple of weeks, and we remain to see how that impacts our ability to recruit staff, and it's too early at this stage to draw any conclusions from that. But it may well be an opportunity to look at getting some talent that's recently come out of those businesses, if that opportunity arises over the next couple of months. But a bit too early to see that in our business. But on the whole, we're pretty confident with the -- I'm pleased with the progress we've made in the year in terms of the technology platforms and services in our business.

Yes. Gareth, sorry, just to be clear, what I'm really talking about was Informa Tech on the events side in terms of the performance there going into 2023. And any forward visibility you've got, given the sort of changes in the industry as a whole on the live events?

I'm sorry, Steve, I was mixing up my tech and my technology. Okay. Yes, in terms of Informa Tech as a business, no particular changes there. They don't operate any big shows in sort of December, January, February. But certainly, the last round of big shows that they operated -- they've operated through the autumn have gone well. The biggest show of the year in August, Black Hat, was excellent, delivered a really good result. And their bookings for the next round of big shows, which really start from March and April, show you start operating from then those shows are booking up well. So pleased with how the Events revenues are going there. And in areas like Omdia, where they're selling -- on an ongoing basis, selling subscriptions and consultancy products. Again, that continues to go well. I think their annualized contract value in Omdia is the highest it's been at the moment. And there, year-on-year growth in that area continues to strengthen. So overall, Informa Tech going well as a business both in terms of the recovery of Live, On-Demand Events, but also in its nonevents revenue streams.

We'll take our next question, Sarah Simon from Berenberg.

Just 1 question on China. You obviously ran shows in China in 2021. Can you remind us what kind of recovery level you were running at then? And how -- obviously, how that compares to the sort of 85% you've been doing ex China this year?

Yes. I mean this is one of the important factors about China looking into 2023 is that it's not like the China model is unproven post COVID. Performance in 2021 was really strong. There was a lot of demand from exhibitors and buyers to attend trade shows and the numbers delivered by that business in 2021 were really positive. They were -- a lot of the time, the China shows are quite big domestic events with relatively small international attendance. And in 2021, a lot of the shows pretty much sold out by selling the spare -- international space to a higher number of domestic attendees. And therefore, actually in terms of 2021, China was kind of at the 90% mark, 90% to 100% of pre-COVID levels of revenue, so traded very strongly. Again, depends in terms of end markets and location. But in the range, China was very, very good in 2021. And then despite the operational challenges we faced in 2022, that's what really gives us confidence, that going into 2023, there's the opportunity for real acceleration in our numbers from China and in our overall performance as that business begins to come back online.

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question, Matthew Walker from Crédit Suisse.

Just still a few questions. First of all, any thoughts around Hong Kong specifically? So is it right that Mainland was around GBP 200 million and then Hong Kong was around sort of GBP 60 million to GBP 80 million. Just wonder if you could sort of address the issue of Hong Kong. I know the jewelry shows moving back, but yes, if you could address Hong Kong potential as well, that would be useful. And then going back to your point about recovery, I think your guidance is for recovery of trade shows to the 2019 level by 2024. And you were commenting on international shows maybe taking a bit longer. Just conceptually, why given that borders are reopened and have been for quite a long time, why do you think that we can't get back to normal levels for international in 2023? What's going to change on international travel between 2023 and 2024, so that international shows can only recover fully by 2024? And then finally, on the net debt level and the buyback, I think you've outlined a GBP 725 million buyback, you're going to be -- you said basically 0 net debt by the end of this year. I think your original plan thinking back before disposals was to give back around GBP 1 billion, half of that in special dividends, half in a buyback, why not up it back up to GBP 1 billion?

Cheers, Matthew, just picking our way through those then. So you mentioned Hong Kong first. Yes, that's another part of the opportunity that we see for 2023 in terms of reopening that market. I think you said GBP 60 million to GBP 80 million on the revenue, it's probably at the top end of that range in terms of what we did from that market pre-COVID. What we've done in terms of 2022 is basically we've tried to operate some of the Hong Kong brands elsewhere in the region, places like Dubai or Kuala Lumpur, et cetera. So you operate them in the region. But really, the key driver of Hong Kong Exhibition revenues is attendees from Mainland China coming over the border from China, and that obviously hasn't really restarted so far in terms of Hong Kong's performance. First, we're planning to take the regional events through operators in '22 and move those back to Hong Kong for '23, and we can see how that market continues to evolve. So they have relaxed over recent month or 2, a number of travel restrictions into and out of Hong Kong and therefore, that gives it, I think, good reopening potential into 2023 for that market to continue to accelerate. In terms of the international travel, that's definitely something that we're seeing come back over time. And there's any sort of structural issues in there or structural effects. We have got, as I just mentioned, in China, there's obviously still some restrictions. We're used to it in the West being fairly easy to travel now and getting back to kind of pre-COVID levels of travel patterns. Certainly, in and out of China though, it's still pretty difficult, as I know from talking to colleagues. And still restrictions. And they've just eased them, I think, last week. There was another easing of those restrictions, which will help restart China travel. But until we get China travel back, I think that will be a factor in the overall travel numbers for trade shows. And just more internationally, I think people just kind of -- they're kind of getting back to pre-COVID levels of travel. I think the facilitation and ease of travel is definitely getting better, as I said, but I think it's taking a little bit of time for people to come back. I mean part of that will be grumpy finance directors not freeing up budget, that's always a bit of a problem. And travel budgets are taking a bit of time to come back, thankfully. So -- but I think, overall, there will be a bit more of a return for that in 2023. And I say nothing particularly structural in there. In terms of the share buybacks, you're right that we've committed to a GBP 725 million program there following the divestment program. We've done over GBP 450 million of that to date and we're tracking towards somewhere in the region of GBP 500 million to GBP 550 million of it completed by the end of the year. As you said, we originally committed to some of that being through special dividends is now all through share buybacks following feedback from shareholders that we listen to and took on board. And I think we will come back to the topic next year when we get to the end of the existing commitment to talk further about how we want to take the commitment forward in terms of the overall program. In terms of net debt, that sort of buyback profile by the end of the year should get us to a point whereby we will be around about 0 in terms of net debt, potentially excluding the leases, which is how we think about our leverage number. And that, I think, really gives us a great opportunity and capacity in the balance sheet to accelerate investment, both organically and inorganically into 2023, as we look to -- look at businesses that would help develop and accelerate the GAP 2 story further.

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question, Tom Singlehurst from Citi.

Just 1 question. I just wondered, with the comment on the outlook where you say you're in a strong position for continued growth and acceleration in 2023. Should we take that literally? I mean, i.e., should we assume that you're actually talking about a growth rate in 2023 above 2022? Or is that just -- are you just talking in general continued improvement? That's it.

So, Tom, yes, I think we're talking about a general improvement in the business and an improvement in acceleration in some of the mix areas that we're looking to drive in terms of GAP 2. Certainly, turnarounds we've touched on earlier, we'll be looking for that to deliver another year of good revenue growth at or above the levels of 2022. And in the B2B Digital Services areas looking for another year of acceleration there. But clearly, in terms of Live and On-Demand Event revenues, while good opportunity for further expansion of those revenues into 2023 in terms of the growth rate that benefits in 2022 from the COVID recovery, and therefore, I wouldn't expect to see another year of 40% growth rates, but clearly, I think the growth rates well above the long-term average for that business are absolutely achievable for the business.

[Operator Instructions] There are no questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Gareth for any additional or closing remarks.

Okay. Well, thank you for the questions. We'll wrap it up there. I hope that was a useful call, both in terms of the headline commentary around the our 2022 full year guidance upgrade that we've announced this morning and our confidence into 2023 that we have in the business, both from an organic and an inorganic perspective. If you have any further questions, Richard [indiscernible] around during the course of the day. So by all means, drop us a line. But otherwise, good day to you, and thank you for taking the time to join our trading update call.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.