Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane S.p.A. (INW) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the INWIT Full Year 2022 Results and Strategy Update Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Fabio Ruffini, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. With me today is Diego Galli, INWIT's General Manager. Before we begin, please allow me to draw your attention to the safe harbor statement on Page 2. Following a brief presentation of few selected pages from the quarterly results and the updated 2023, '26 business plan, we will be happy to take your questions. Over to you, Diego.

Thank you, Fabio. And welcome, everyone. Today, we present a solid set of results for 2022 in line with guidance and an updated business plan for our 2023 and 2026. We confirm our ambition to be the leading digital infrastructure player in Italy. We also take stock of the main industry and company developments over the past couple of years; and updated set of assumptions, risks and opportunities, which in balance is positive. We go in the direction of derisking and improving visibility on our growth plan. There are structural positive trends impacting our business. The model of shared digital infrastructure is well placed to capture this opportunity despite the ongoing challenges in the Italian mobile industry. Today, more than ever, we are an infrastructure partner to customers seeking efficiency in the network deployment. Through sharing economics, we allow savings in cost and CapEx to operators. In front of us, there is a wider opportunity to invest to broaden our infrastructure, meeting supportive demand for our macro and micro grid. This means a stronger 2026 exit rate than previously assumed, also thanks to the tailwind from inflation. We now target more than EUR 1.2 billion revenues; stronger margins; and more than EUR 730 million recurring free cash flow; solid organic growth, translating to progressively lower leverage, an opportunity to create additional value beyond the scope of the business plan. We start this journey today with the first commitment: an enhanced dividend policy with EUR 100 million extra dividends per annum from next year onwards, targeting EUR 0.48 per share in 2024, also the company-first buyback program up to EUR 300 million between 2023 and 2024. After these actions, we still have material headroom to deploy to maximize growth in our core business plus adjacent areas. Let us now briefly comment the quarterly results on Page 5. Q4 delivered solid financials and a record-high number of new sites and new point of presence, in particular 200 new sites, bringing the full year total to nearly 500; more than 1,200 new PoPs with improvements in both anchor technology; continued pace of real estate transactions, more than 2,000 in the year. 2022 was a year of the improved delivery. Revenues were up 8.6% with, OLOs up 26% and new services up 60%. EBITDAaL was up 13%, with 3 percentage point margin expansion. Recurring free cash flow, up EUR 491 million, with leverage down to 5.2x, 0.5 turns less than end 2021. During the year, we made progress on a number of other fronts: a renewed governance with majority independent directors in the Board; and a broader senior leadership team with recent appointments of CFO, CCO, and HRO, whom you will know soon; 2 new commercial agreements reinforcing our market share in scarcely populated areas, where we will build nearly 1,500 new sites; further integrating sustainability in our business model, with recognition from top rating agency and the inclusions in new indices. Let us now skip a few pages and move to Slide 11 to see our financial metrics in a broader context. The interaction with Vodafone Italy unlocked significant potential for INWIT to deliver strong organic growth and operating leverage, visible in improving metrics across the board. Growth in financials accelerated materially, particularly over 2022. Recurring free cash flow is up by more than EUR 170 million in 2 years or 55%. We are sweating our assets, growing tenants per tower and reducing ground lease costs. As a result, [ margin ] per tower went up from EUR 21,000 to more than EUR 25,000 in 2 years. I would like to mention again the strong volume growth experienced in all of clients, where fixed wireless access and other clients help us add 30% more tenants in 2 years. Our execution ability has become more solid. And this makes us confident for the business plan to 2026, which I would like to discuss, beginning with targets on Page 13. The new business plan confirms the strategic guidance we shared in November 2020, with an update of selected assumptions. We updated inflation outlook. There is a wider opportunity to deploy in macro sites and a renewed go-to-market approach for new services, particularly indoor DAS, as well as a greater effort in land buying. In addition, we rebalanced the CPI growth, factoring in the current run rates. We expect to grow revenues by 14% in 2023 to EUR 970 million at the midpoint; and then to more than EUR 1.2 billion in 2026, about EUR 100 million better than previously expected. More efficiency flows to the P&L in the form of higher EBITDA and EBITDAaL margins, respectively, up 92% and 76% in 2026. Cash flow generation is expected to expand at 2-digit rates, hitting about EUR 600 million this year to more than EUR 730 million in 2026. As compared with the previous targets, we estimate inflation to account for more than 80% of the extra revenues, with the balance being an update on volume, mix and price assumptions. To this, we have more investments in land buyout, with an impact on margin and cash. We expect to continue delever by about [ 0.5 deleverage turns ] per year. The first use of this balance sheet flexibility will be an enhanced dividend policy and a share buyback plan of about EUR 300 million. The 2 elements combined account for more than EUR 600 million in 3 years to 2026 on top of [ the produced ] dividend policy. [ Beyond the ] targets, we still have material balance sheet flexibility to devote to value creation, continuing to employ a disciplined approach to capital. On Page 14, we summarize the main changes reflected in today's business plan. From a demand perspective, we confirm the view of strong structural trends for towers. Despite the ongoing challenges in the telecom industry, we [ do have needs ] for efficiency. This is an opportunity to partner with our clients. Towers are the most efficient way to deploy mobile networks, leveraging on sharing economics. On volume assumptions. We were awarded 2 material BTS programs with positive long-term impacts on our assets, [ though with ] limited financial impact by 2026. Fixed wireless access and other clients demand remain supportive. We rebalanced the expected progression in volumes more in line with the current run rate. We expect the DAS indoor coverage to be the main driver for new service growth. And the market for small cell will be more material from 2026. On innovative businesses, in the short term, we see greatest potential in IoT hosting, boosted also by the NextGenerationEU funds. And finally, there is a greater focus on buying land at scale. In an evolving scenario, our business models can adapt and deliver based on a strong set of assets, which we discuss on Page 15. INWIT's competitive advantage stems from a unique set of assets built since the first introduction of the mobile industry in Italy, a location advantage. We have a pervasive coverage of the markets, with macro grid and developing micro grid working in synergy. The visibility on the growth trajectory is reinforced by MSAs with 2 Tier 1 anchor players. [ Beyond ] a full CPI link, there is a committed growth component and a preferred supplier role, very strong contractual features build on a mutually beneficial partnership. OLOs are a more and more significant part of our earnings. We cater to all players, although recently fixed wireless access and other clients have been the bulk of growth. Quality assets and strong commercial relationships are the foundation of our growth strategy, as we can see on Page 16. Our business plan aims to develop all client segments, anchor, OLOs, the micro grid and innovative services, with a stronger focus on enablers; in short, more sites, which is [ the ABC towards our ] company. We made progress in 2022 and we will do more in the future: a step-up in the micro grid, improving the execution and growing materially by 2026 and deployment of balance sheet flexibility at scale with discipline and focus on core business plus core adjacent areas, without ruling out additional shareholder remuneration. Technology evolution support our strategy, as we can appreciate on Page 17. Mobile technology evolution are a positive for towers. 5G, with its higher frequencies, shorter range, ability to enable advanced services and physical challenges in crossing buildings, implies more sites, more point of presence, more need for indoor coverage. And this, all this, means a relevant market opportunity for towers. We estimate there will be more than 8,000 new sites needed in Italy in the next 4 years as well as more than 55,000 DAS and small cell remote units. And looking at the market opportunity on Slide 18, the market opportunity available to towers. Along the dimensions of market size and competitive advantage, we find that there are clear focus areas. There is still plenty of growth in our core business of macro grid hosting because of coverage and densification needs working in synergies with us. Outdoor small cell are relevant but will come at scale from 2026, also as part of large dedicated projects, for instance, larger location or transportation apps, which will combine a mix of different digital infrastructure. With innovative services, IoT has the most potential in the short to medium term both in terms of hosting and platform services. Active equipment, when unlocked by operators, might be also an interesting opportunity in the medium term. Let us now move to KPIs on Page 19. So shifting gears to operational assumption underlying the business plan, in this page, we discuss volumes. Since the 2020 plan, we have hit financial targets in line with guidance, though with a different mix of KPIs. Today, we rebalanced some volume assumptions which were very front-end loaded in the previous plan and provide a clear path to 2026 in line with current run rates. In addition, the main update, as compared with our previous guidance, are more than 1,500 additional tenants from anchor, 400 additional PoPs relating to 200 additional sites and more than 1,000 PoPs from the NextGenerationEU 5G tender. And also there are 2,000 additional real estate transactions with a stronger focus on land buyout, benefiting margins. As for PoPs from OLOs, we confirm the overall volume expectation, with further reducing the remedies volumes, pending the resolution of the current disputes. In short, we increase PoPs volumes with anchors in highly visible source of revenues. We normalize the future run rate of new PoPs and new sites in line with the current run rate and we boost efficiency with additional land buyout. In the next page, we zoom in new services. New services are one of the drivers of this business plan, with their weight of revenues expected to expand between 2022 and '26 based on renewed focus on execution. There is a clear market mix reinforced by the transition to 5G, a clear market need to improve indoor mobile connectivity; and enable transactions, communication and [ data ID ] applications. The best technology to do this, to achieve this is DAS, where we lead the market and have shown material growth in 2022. And we are working to develop the market, leveraging on a new organization with a dedicated business unit and a more consistent execution. DAS indoor solutions appeal to a variety of verticals targeting private and public entities. Our solution involves active equipment [ on bias ] open to all operators, conductive to double-digit returns with a tenancy ratio of 2. Moving to efficiency drivers on Page 22 (sic) [ 21 ]. On efficiency, we plan on continuing on the positive results achieved, so far. Regarding ground leases, we plan on buying out more land, reaching more than 20% of our size; to maintain stable lease costs despite having more sites and the inflationary scenario. About inflation charges, we have no meaningful refinancing -- sorry. About financial charges, we have no meaningful refinancing deadlines ahead of 2025 and can count on 80% of debt being fixed and updated cost of debt in the 2% area. On taxes, we benefit from 2 tax schemes activated in 2021 with double-digit IRR and still sitting on goodwill, which may be unlocked in the future depending on developments in the Italian law. We benefit from several sources of top line growth and, at the same time, strive to optimize every cost item. An updated CapEx plan in the next page. We see supportive demand for greater infrastructure services in the market and invest following a model of highly visible returns based on long-term [ semi ] sales. For these reasons, organic CapEx is probably the most value-generative project we can undertake. We see scope for EUR 900 million CapEx in the next 4 years, 3/4 of which will be new sites and site upgrades to maximize tenancies; new DAS projects, broadening the coverage of key location and buying assets when possible; more land buyout in an environment which is still conductive of high volume of transactions. This plan on 2021, 2026 basis is EUR 200 million higher than assumed in November 2020. The difference is explained by inflation, about 5% of total CapEx; more volume on new sites; upgrades; DAS; and then buyouts. The results of these additional investments can be appreciated in our guidance in the form of stronger EBITDAaL and recurring free cash flow in real terms before the impact of inflation, a material investment plan to make sure we capture the meaningful growth opportunities ahead of us. A few words on capital allocation on the next page. Our cash flow and EBITDA growth profile imply we delever by about 0.5 turns per year, as done in 2022. Without additional investment on shareholder distribution, this would risk making our balance sheet inefficient, below industry benchmark. Structurally, at current ratings, we can sustain leverage up to 6x, in line with our peers. In the short term, given the lack of large-size accretive opportunities [ and ] costs of funding, we believe it's appropriate to be in the corridor between 5x to 5.5x. This still leaves a material and progressively growing balance sheet flexibility up to more EUR 2 billion in 2026. Today, we begin deploying the balance sheet flexibility with an enhanced dividend policy, EUR 100 million more per year from 2024, growing at 7.5% until 2026; and also the company-first share buyback program, up to EUR 300 million between 2023 and 2026. Even after accounting of these capital allocation tools, we will have room for additional investments to maintain and optimize the level of leverage and maximize growth opportunities. Next page summarizes today's session. The business plan builds on the fundamentals of the company and its ability to create sustainable value in the long run. It all starts with strong organic growth at top level in the industry, with material margin expansion. We invest with a very appealing risk-reward balance. And there is material room ahead of us to deploy more CapEx to maximize growth on top of business plan targets. Finally, we provide an enhanced return proposition to shareholder, deploying all tools available to affirm our belief that there is a strong fundamental value in the company. With this, I thank you. And we are now ready for the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Fabio Pavan of Mediobanca.

Yes. I would have many questions. Let me just try to limit to a couple [ of one ]. First one is on Page 16, which I see as extremely interesting. I was wondering how much of these opportunities you are mentioning are captured in your plan. My second question is, when making your business plan assumptions, are you assuming EMF limitations could be relaxed at some point? Or not. And finally, the third question is on the firepower which is still left in your hands after having increased the shareholder remuneration. For you, Diego, do you think, do you see options in the future may come from acquisition and have more portfolio of towers rather than you could be tempted to explore opportunities in adjacent businesses or other things which I'm not mentioning?

Thank you, Fabio. Let me actually start from the second question, the EMF regulation. Clearly the assumption in the plan is based on current limits and current regulation. The topic is on the table, yes. It's on the government table. I would say that there is building an overall consensus also in the industry about the rationality of the potential uplift, though, as I said, the plan is based on current limits. If any uplift would happen, clearly it would be really welcome particularly as a facilitator of our operational delivery, but let me also say that we don't consider it as a game changer for our financials. On the first question, we think about the plan is a fair, balanced view of the opportunity of the company. Actually we see as part of the opportunity the potential to invest the additional CapEx and the financial headroom that we have to capture additional opportunities. The industry is evolving and it's evolving quickly from a technology point of view as well as from a market point of view. We have a position of strength, thanks to our assets and our capabilities and competencies. And we think that there -- the flexibility that we have is -- the financial flexibility that -- yes, we -- will allow us to capture additional opportunities, leveraging around our core business, our -- the integration of the macro grid and the micro grid that we are building over time. The opportunities are related to, yes, portfolio of towers, additional land buyout, the large projects with an integrated view on connectivity when we think about large, for instance, location of transportation, transportation hub. And so I'm pleased that we are making the current perimeter in terms of organic growth always more solid. And we are open and considering and assessing the opportunities to exploit and to put at work the additional flexibility to build additional growth on top of this, the plan that today we shared.

The next question is from Sam McHugh of BNP Paribas.

A question about debt, if I can. I mean it's, sorry, 2 parts. The first is for the dividend and buyback for 2023. Do you think you'll need to tap any of your revolvers or credit facilities and draw down a bit of cash to cover the payments in the next 12, 18 months? [ i.e., new ] gross debt. And then secondly, on the refinancing, just if you could give us a bit of clarity on the 2025 term loan. What interest rate is that occurring today? And then what are you assuming in terms of the refi costs of that in 2025 for the 2026 guidance?

So in terms of the additional shareholder remuneration, yes, it will be basically financed on basically using the existing facilities, the revolving facilities, so it's mostly debt. And with regards to the 2025 term loan is on Euribor, 6 months-plus, plus spread. Overall in terms of refinancing, what we do see today is a cost of debt in the range between 4 -- top of 4%, about 4% to 4.5%.

All right, very clear, [ very easy ]. And I -- just if I can ask one more follow-up as well, not on that but another question, about MNO PoPs. I think in the past you'd said you would add 2,000 between 2022 and 2026, cumulative. I was wondering. Just to clarify: In the slides you do talk about lower volumes. I wonder if that 2,000 MNO PoPs number has changed.

Yes. Actually we are taking in consideration the current trends. Actually we did, in 2022, new PoPs with the MNOs. And we will do and we will do more, though in the current plan, actually, we reduced a little bit. And we are below 2,000, in the range of 1,500, taking into account the current -- the most recent, most recent trend. Having said that, we are putting additional focus on the operational processes, in particular with one MNO, that one from which we have the highest demand. So additional effort from an operational process; and also additional money, for instance, in terms of upgrades to accommodate an increasing number of new hospitalities on our towers, but back to your question: Yes, the number has been, let me say, updated to about 1,500.

The next question is from Roshan Ranjit of Deutsche Bank.

I'll just keep it to 2, please. On the higher CapEx, the EUR 200 million incremental, you said around 5% as a result of the, I guess, high material costs. Is it possible to get a split of the remainder which you're going to be dedicated to land buyouts? And Diego, you mentioned now greater than 20% for land buyout. I mean, is it kind of materially above, or are we talking about a kind of a couple percentage points above? That would be good. And secondly, just to get a clarification on the buyback. Now you said you've got 18 months to execute on that EUR 300 million buyback. Is this something which we should be thinking about that you would look to get approval for at every kind of AGM? So that -- you have that in your back pocket to deploy accordingly, dependent upon how quickly you delever and in the absence of any other allocation of that balance sheet headroom.

Thanks, Roshan. With regards to CapEx, yes, the first element is about inflation. It accounts for something more than EUR 50 million. Land buyout is the second component relevant, is below EUR 100 million. Then there are additional sites, which account for something about EUR 30 million, net of the contribution for the NextGenerationEU funds sites. And the rest is bulk of other stuff, upgrades, some DAS, [ IT ]. With regards with the second point, on the buyback, actually we are pleased with the plan we have just approved, did the first time. I think it's an important step in the clarification and implementation of our capital allocation framework. And this will be implemented in the next 18 months. We will clearly also look carefully the way it works and the impact. At this stage, there is no other formal commitment for other buybacks. As we shared during the presentation, we will keep on, at the same time, deleveraging by 0.5 turns per year, so clearly we'll keep on creating flexibility and financial headroom and which we will allocate with the same rationality we have applied so far looking at the best return for the company, with no bias and assessing all the options and implementing them [ at the right ] time.

The next question is from Andrew Lee of Goldman Sachs.

Diego, I just had a question also on your balance sheet construction. You've obviously introduced shareholder returns. And you've now got shareholder returns, yields. [ And then it's ] higher than, I think, any other telco globally, but it looks like there's still -- even despite that, you've still got quite a lot of room to maneuver. And so I have 2 questions, if that's okay, but the first question is in your commentary you suggested you're veering towards your 5x, 5.5x net debt-to-EBITDA versus your longer-term kind of structural target of 6x net debt-to-EBITDA. Just on that, I just wondered. How did you get to that kind of level? Is that your conversations with shareholders? Is that your sense of the appropriate degree of leverage? Just how you've thought about that would be helpful given it's quite a tricky question. And then secondly, just in terms of other uses of cash, you've laid out lots of potentials. Could you just give us an insight into how much of those kind of potential uses of cash outside shareholder returns are actually in the shop window today and tangible and something you can see that you'll obviously be able to do? And how much of that is just your ability to be opportunistic going forwards? Just trying to get a sense of how much you'll actually be investing over the next year to 2 years with the balance sheet flexibility you have.

Andrew, Fabio here. Can you please clarify your second point there? Because you didn't really get through. Thank you.

Okay, yes. So the -- sorry. That's probably my fault. The question was, of the -- outside of shareholder returns, you have obviously less flexibility to be able to make investments. And I just wondered how much of those investments you can see are really visible and you have like high probability you're actually going to execute on. And how much of that -- and how much of the kind of balance sheet flexibility is just giving yourselves the ability to be opportunistic in the future? I'm just trying to get a sense of like how much you're actually -- you actually can foresee yourselves definitely investing after that balance sheet flexibility over the next year or 2 years.

Yes, thanks, Andrew, also for clarifying the second point. Yes, with regards to leverage, as you know, there is no rocket science. We confirmed today that structurally, long term, we still believe that 6x is reasonable for a company as ours that has such a strong cash generation and visibility on the long-term contracts and is -- we are fine with our current rating profile, though considering that -- the current cost of funding and, honestly, the lack of large-size accretive opportunities, then we balance the different elements. And we think that, for the short term, having a corridor between 5x to 5x -- 5.5x is reasonable, also looking clearly at the peers in the industry and outside the industry. This takes to the second question, but I think that already we have allocated at the end additional EUR 200 million to our organic plan, increasing our CapEx. We have allocated additional shareholder remuneration. As you said, there is additional flexibility that we will assess considering the market opportunities. Now we do see the market evolving, and we are monitoring potential opportunities and assessing potential opportunities. What we do see is that there is an increasing demand for connectivity across the board. And we do see space in some areas that we mentioned during the presentation. And we -- I did mention large coverage projects across a transportation hub or what we may call smart cities, not only with reference to IoT but to a broader, deeper coverage across main metropolitan areas; more land buyout. And also let me say that, medium term, we are clearly open and interested to assess additional opportunities with the anchor tenants with regard to the active equipments because we think it may be -- if well designed, also from a financial point of view, it may be an additional opportunity for towers to create industrial synergies and additional value across the industry. So a variety of opportunity, which give us the -- can I say, the portfolio of things, which we are -- we keep on monitoring. And we will have additional focus and emphasis to implement that. Clearly, as we just communicated, as we just decided, the priority is to keep on creating value for the company addition -- through additional investments, but we are very happy to consider also the shareholder remuneration.

The next question is from Jakob Bluestone of Crédit Suisse.

I've got a question on the 2026 guidance, where I was just hoping for 2 clarifications. One, your -- you've increased your revenue guidance by EUR 100 million, your EBITDAaL by about EUR 90 million and your free cash flow by about EUR 30 million, so can you just help us with the bridge between EBITDA and free cash flow? Is that just high interest and CapEx? Or just if you can maybe break that out a little bit more. And then just secondly, what are your current assumptions for the remedy contribution from Iliad by '26? Are you still assuming you get something from Iliad by then?

Jakob, yes, on the recurring free cash flow, yes. The item -- let me say the reconciling item is the interest cost. With regards to the second topic, we do expect overall 1,500 new point of presence with Iliad, broadly. This is lower than the previous forecast, taking into account the recent trends, but also shows our renewed focus on this, which is reflected also in additional resources, both people and money, to increase the run rate, success rate with Iliad.

The next question is from Georgios Ierodiaconou of Citi.

[ One was a ] follow-up on some of the comments you just made, Diego, regarding the mid-term opportunities. And I appreciate on Page 18 you left active equipment, edge data centers and backhauling as areas you are not yet addressing -- or focusing on, but you made the comment that, medium term, there could be opportunities. I was wondering in the -- whether you had any conversations already with some of your anchors on this. And if not, when do you expect these to be relevant? Or think -- is it a case of the industry moving towards some kind of more virtual network technologies and it could take time? Or are there any other financial considerations for you around the rising cost of capital and therefore you need better returns? I'm just curious to see. What is the time frame at which you may give us an update on that?

George, let me say that we are already actually managing active equipment when we do deploy DAS, which are actually an active element of the network which is deployed for the tenants, so an extension of the perimeter has already happened there. And clearly will happen -- it will happen even more in the future due to our -- the strong growth on DAS. And with regards with the mobile and mobile equipment, yes, as I said, this may be a natural expansion of our perimeter. And it's clearly for the medium, long term. We have not started any, let me say, tangible conversation with the anchors yet. That is a journey that we do envisage and we are openly interested to, yes.

And in terms of the returns profile, obviously you have much higher returns than other tower companies on the macro deployment, but on this kind of solutions, do you think the returns can still be significantly higher than your WACC? Or is it something that only adds incremental value?

Yes, no, it's absolutely an important point. I think that directionally we may not expect returns which are in-line or the same level of the tower model, but clearly we do envisage returns which are higher than cost of capital and around the 2 -- our policy of double-digit IRR. It's a little bit -- clearly it's early to discuss in depth. It's part of thinking and business modeling, but it's a little bit too early to go into details.

The next question is from Luigi Minerva of HSBC.

I'll just note a few points on Slide 19, if I may, and so just asking really -- I suppose, if I compare the old business plan and the new business plan and -- can you just, like, take us through like what didn't work, let's say, for 2020, 2023 that's led to under-delivering compared to your ambitions? And why do you think now the conditions are there in the next 3 years to actually deliver more than you were expecting in the previous business plan? And then looking at particularly the next 3 years, are you able to say which one of the PoPs are already fully committed by the anchors and the OLOs and which are your judgment? And lastly, if you are able to charge for penalties, so if the anchors or the OLOs eventually decide to take less than what they promised.

Luigi, yes, I think on Slide 19 I would say that we clearly -- we have reflected in the plan the effect of having had a slow start. Or let me say maybe it's a little bit harsh to talk about a slow start. I think that, that is also to be read in combination of a plan that was really front row then. Now this plan rebalances the evolution, the phasing of the development of both new sites and PoPs, achieving an exit rate which is actually in-line or actually better than previous plan. Let me also say that, so far, despite the delays on operational KPIs, we have been in-line on achieving our financial targets. Also the plan actually increases the number of sites and PoPs, particularly if you look at the macro, the new macro PoPs. So on the top right of the chart. That is where we do see the increase and that is where the new PoPs are committed, so actually there is a further element of derisking in this plan not only of the phasing but also of better visibility for the way to 2026. The latest comment is clearly that, in these couple of years, we managed. We absorbed and we offset the different evolution of the remedies, which actually have gone differently from expected, but despite that, again, we delivered the financial results. And we are we will deliver the number of PoPs related to OLOs by 2026. It's also, [ in my view ], nice to see that the -- back to the balancing and rephasing of this plan, there is quite a consistency between the run rate so far and the run rate to go. That again is a sign of derisking of the plan based on the experience we encountered, so far.

And may I ask if you are able to disclose how much of the PoPs in the business plan are committed?

The -- it's -- let me say it's a little bit as we've discussed in the past. The anchor bit is committed. The OLO bit is mostly not committed at this stage, but it's part of operational plans and which are discussed with the -- with our clients.

The next question is from Usman Ghazi of Berenberg.

I hope you can hear me. I have a question on the return on capital, please. So your kind of recurring free cash flow has been upgraded by roughly EUR 20 million. The additional CapEx which is outside of inflationary effects is EUR 150 million, like you mentioned. That's implying returns on the capital of this EUR 200 million that you're going to be spending of 15% or over. Now given that kind of attractive profile, why have you chosen just to do EUR 200 million? Why not go more than that? Is it because you don't want to overheat the kind of ground lease buyout market? Or any -- I mean just to get an idea of why not go more in this area.

No, thanks, Usman. Actually your questions allow me to highlight how our investments are visible and with visible returns. And so we build sites. We build new sites having contractual arrangements with uplift to anchor, and this makes our investments on new sites with visible and high returns. This is a model that is not always common in the industry. And this is leading both our [ growth ] revenues and our results at best-in-class levels. The -- now what we have included in the plan is what is highly visible at this stage, strongly visible at this stage. As we mentioned, there will be the opportunity to do more. And we are fully committed to do more because we think that additional investments in the organic growth in the core or around the core business is the kind of investments which will ensure the highest return.

Great. And just a follow-up on one of the slides where you were mentioning the unique characteristics of your MSA. I -- and I guess one of the things that you didn't mention is [ unloading ] fees, but I understand that, I guess, your MSA allows you to charge the anchors or -- for additional active equipment if it's put on the towers. First of all, I just wanted to clarify. Is that correct? And if that is correct, then -- and this is a bit of a longer-term question, I guess, as we have been -- as you move from 5G to 6G and if it requires more active equipment on sites, does that result in incremental revenues which are guaranteed in your agreement? Or not.

Yes, the MSAs envisage multiple source of revenues. Clearly there is a fixed fee. Clearly there are the additional fees for new point of presence on existing sites or new sites. The MSAs is also linked to the frequencies which were available in March 2020. In case of different active equipments or different frequencies onboarded on the sites, on the equipment, this drives additional fees.

The next question is from Stefano Gamberini of Equita SIM.

The first is regarding the new services. Could you help us to understand, what is the level of revenues that you expect from the growth of mainly DAS and the other new services in 2026? And am I wrong that the margins that you expect from these business are in line with the margins of the macro towers? Or -- am I wrong about these assumptions? Just to understand what is the EBITDA that you expect in '26 from these new business. And if you can give us a little bit more color of how you can accelerate [ EBITDA in ] considering that -- on the other side probably that your anchor tenants are a little bit in standby on this trend. The second, regarding the Slide #19. Could you help us to understand? You said that the OLOs new hospitalities are not committed, but anyway, you more or less doubled the level of previous plan, okay, including 1,500 of additional hospitalities from Iliad [ or the yet ] trends that you are experiencing on the market to see such acceleration from all of -- I guess, mainly from FWA. And just specify if the 11,000 of new hospitalities from anchor tenants '24, '26 are committed or not. Finally, as regards M&A or new investments, in the Slide 18: Could we expect some short-term new deals like you got 2 years ago with Vodafone for motorway tunnels or something that is on the table that could arrive shortly? And are these M&A included -- also included in the CapEx plan, or not; or any M&A that, considering this universe, the Slide 18, are excluded from the CapEx plan?

Thanks, Stefano. A lot of points. Let me try one by one. On new services, yes, we strongly believe in the acceleration of growth. We have achieved broadly EUR 30 million in 2022 revenues, and by 2026, we will bring that level to -- we will grow by basically 3x, something more than 3x. We strongly believe in it. There is a strong demand. And we have enhanced further the capabilities to capture the demand, but it is across multiple set of customers, clearly the MNOs but also the location owner, public administration and companies which are eager to have a better connectivity on their locations. In terms of returns, what we do see are returns in line with our standard threshold that is on the business when there are 2 tenants. So double-digit IRR, returns when there are 2 tenants. On KPIs: On OLOs overall, we kept, we maintained the target -- the previously -- previous planned target at the end of the plan. The achievement of the target requires a little bit of further acceleration because we do see strong demand from fixed wireless access, from other clients. And also as we said before, we are -- we have put additional focus to increase the PoPs with the MNOs, namely Iliad. Those -- that growth is not committed but for the PoPs coming from Open Fiber where there is a commitment on PoPs, anchor PoPs, yes. I do confirm that there is a commitment. Last point, on deals. Yes, there could be something. We are working on multiple fronts, so there is a pipeline with some potential deals, yes. The template of the acquisition of the tunnels Vodafone is a template which did work well. And we are trying to replicate it even eventually at a smaller scale, but we are clearly working on that. And honestly, let me say, that's -- will not be considered as M&A on top of the plan if we are talking about acquisition of a small portfolio of DAS or something like that, if somehow it is a replacement of organic CapEx. Hopefully, this is clear.

[ Perfect ].

The next question is from Ben Rickett of New Street Research.

Firstly, a quick clarification on Slide 19. The new macro sites, does that include Open Fiber sites, the 500? Or is that exclusively the anchor MNO new sites? And then a sort of broader question on sites. I was just interested in, given that some of your sites must now be coming up to sort of 20, 25 years old, whether you're expecting that -- to replace sites over the medium term; and if so, whether that implies higher CapEx or whether that's all within the maintenance CapEx [ input ].

Thanks, Ben. Yes, on Slide 19, the Open Fiber sites are not included. And with regards to the second point, actually we have a regular and intense and careful plan of extraordinary maintenance, which is recurring investments which allow us to keep actually the sites always, always, how can I say, updated, upgraded; and so expanding the lifetime, the life duration of the sites.

The next question is from Giorgio Tavolini of Intermonte.

In your old business plan, you included an uplift of around EUR 30 million revenues per year as, I mean, a number for the next years. I was wondering if you can elaborate more on if you see any additional scope for further upside from [ PNRR ] activities in the plan after the recent awarding of the 5G [ PNRR ] tender in Italy. And the second question is on the -- your relationship with the anchor tenant. I was wondering if you see any pressure from TIM, Vodafone to make more savings or renegotiate activities outside the master service agreement or put -- to put some cap on inflation. Or I don't know if you also see some slowdown in the 5G deployment as recently reported in the press in Italy. And the third question is regarding the CapEx plan. I was wondering if you see this EUR 200 million extra CapEx, I mean, profile more front-end loaded or back-end loaded, looking at the different moving parts related to the macro sites and land buyout, whatever. So I was just wondering. What kind of profile should we think about?

Thanks, Giorgio, yes. With regards to the NextGenerationEU, yes, the number is broadly confirmed and is across -- actually spread across the plan because the -- after the awards of the big tenders, now there are other projects in the execution phase which are somehow spread across a number of multiple projects, which benefits basically our -- will be visible in the DAS or IoT revenue line. With the -- with regard to the second question, the -- let me say the main pressure that we do have from the anchor tenants is on delivering sites as many as possible, as soon as possible because this is a way for them to progress on their network improvement and network development in an efficient manner. This is where we are focused. We are pleased on the progress we made in 2022, and we will do more sites in 2023. So this is clearly an operational focus. And also it's important that in this environment, where clearly the pressure on margin is high, we keep on working with the anchors to identify other ways for us to deploy tools for them to make efficiencies on costs and CapEx. Clearly, deploying the new sites is a way. New tenants on existing sites is another way. Deals such as the tunnels acquisition with Vodafone is another way. Also deploying DAS, shared DAS, for better indoor coverage are ways -- are all ways to deploy the 5G rollout in an efficient manner. With regards to the last question: The CapEx profile will be a little bit more front loaded, consistently with what I just said, so the urgency to deploy new sites, yes, in the short term. Thank you.

The final question is from Fernando Cordero of Santander.

I share your view on the profitability of the internal CapEx -- or sorry, your running CapEx projects. In that sense, [ I'm just willing ] to know why you haven't increased or you are not allocating a material amount in energy sourcing. I understand that energy is a pass-through and consequently may be not, let's say, an interesting -- or there is no pressure to be more active on that front, but I would like to know [indiscernible] in your conversations with your clients are opening the opportunity to invest, for example, in -- on sourcing of the energy, for example, with solar panels in the sites and so on.

Thanks for the questions because actually there is a lot on the plate, and energy projects are another topic which is on our plate in assessing, I mean, the self-production on a bigger scale. We are doing already. We are installing solar panel on our sites, not yet at scale. And it's something we are assessing clearly in these days, the high volatility of prices. And the difficulty to forecast what is going to be the long-term price is making the business case a little bit instable, but it's something we are assessing and always in the perspective of having it eventually, I will say, embedded in the tower or pricing model and pricing scheme. So clearly what -- eventually we will not enter in any arrangements where we are exposed to the energy price fluctuations.

Gentlemen, at this time, there are no more questions registered. Would you like to make some closing remarks?

Thank you, everybody, for connecting. And have a great rest of the day.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.