Inghams Group Limited (ING) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the Inghams First Half '25 Financial Results Briefing. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to Andrew Reeves, the CEO and Managing Director of Inghams.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Andrew Reeves, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Inghams, and it's my pleasure to welcome you to our FY '25 interim results presentation. On behalf of Inghams, I would like to acknowledge traditional owners, both past and present, as custodians of this land we are meeting on today. And joining me for today's presentation is our Chief Financial Officer, Gary Mallett. And at the conclusion of the formal presentation, we will take any questions you may have on the results of the business. So, turning now to the highlights of the first half of FY '25. I'm pleased to report that Inghams has delivered a first half EBITDA on a pre-AASB 16 basis of $124 million, which is the second highest earnings result since listing and is only surpassed by the exceptionally strong results delivered in the first half of FY '24. Revenue marginally declined in line with volume, while costs within EBITDA declined by 0.9%. This reduction in costs against the background of persistent inflation was underpinned by a continued moderation in feed costs, combined with the strong cost management outcomes, which have substantially offset inflation. We are successfully navigating the changes to our customer portfolio. As of today, we have secured new business in retail and QSR channels, equivalent to approximately 75% of the Woolworths volume reduction. Importantly, we have maintained a disciplined approach to pricing as shown by an increase in core poultry NSP of 1% versus the prior corresponding period with Bostock Brothers acquisition contributing 30 basis points to group NSP growth. The first half saw a shift in channel mix with volume moving into retail from wholesale, combined with the strong growth in byproducts volume following the transition of some third-party wholesale sales to in-house processing, which was supported by our recent investments in automation. In New Zealand, we settled the acquisition of Bostock on July 1. The integration is on track and the business is performing in line with expectations. This table summarizes the key financial outcomes during the period. You will notice that several of our key indicators are lower than the prior corresponding period. As I noted, our FY '24 result beating the first half of 2024 results, this period was always going to be challenging as we navigate near-term changes through our customer portfolio and the effects of inflation on consumer conditions. Notwithstanding that, our first half '25 results are very solid set of numbers and the company is positioned well for future growth. Core poultry volume declined 2.7% versus PCP due mainly to a decline in Australian volume due to a temporary reduction in bird numbers processed during the period to manage both second half '24 inventory levels and the transition to the new Woolworths supply agreement. The New Zealand business recorded strong core poultry volume growth of 5%, driven by growth in both retail and export channels with the acquisition of Bostock contributing 2.9 percentage points of New Zealand's volume growth. As you will note on the chart on the right of the slide, it is encouraged to see positive volume growth trend across Australia, New Zealand and key channels versus the normalized second half of FY '24 volumes. Turning now to look at conditions across various channels during the first half. Retail volumes continued their growth during the period, with New Zealand retail volumes also benefiting from the acquisition of Bostock. While QSR volume was lower than the prior period in both markets, we are seeing signs that the performance of this channel is stabilizing. Across the other channels, wholesale volumes were lower than prior corresponding period after we took some customer sales volume back in-house, while export volumes were affected in varying degrees in both Australia and New Zealand by Avian influenza outbreaks in both markets at non-Inghams' farms. In both countries, these outbreaks were substantially confined to table leg farms. As we noted in our FY '25 guidance that was given at our FY '24 results in August last year, we expect to deliver modest NSP growth this financial year. Consistent with that outlook, group NSP increased 1% versus the prior corresponding period to $6.34. In Australia, we saw growth in both retail and QSR which was partially offset by weaker wholesale pricing. Notwithstanding this, Australian NSP increased by 1.6%. In New Zealand, the acquisition of Bostock made a solid contribution to NSP growth, contributing 4.9 percentage points to retail growth and 2.3 percentage points to overall New Zealand NSP growth during the period. Excluding Bostock, New Zealand NSP declined 1.7% for the PCP. I'd now like to hand over to Gary to present the financial results in more detail.

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Commencing with our profit and loss for the half. As Andrew noted earlier, overall, the company has achieved a pleasing set of financial results, albeit we achieved record results in the prior comparative period. Revenue decreased by 1.9% in line with the decline in volume to $1.6 billion compared to PCP. The decline in core poultry volume was partially offset by an increase in core poultry NSP of 1%. There was also a 3.3% decline in external feed revenue resulting from a reduction in feed NSP due to lower key feed input costs. Within core poultry, the wholesale NSP declined 8.2% versus PCP, reflecting the progressive post-COVID recovery in channel supply. Total costs within EBITDA were $12.4 million lower versus PCP. Within the movement in total costs, internal feed costs declined $34 million, reflecting the improvement in market pricing of key feed inputs over the past 12 months. As a result of the conversion of 102 contract growers to variable performance-based contracts over the past 18 months, there was a higher operating cost effect of $21.1 million as more of the grower contract costs are now included within EBITDA, having been previously been recorded in AASB 16 interest and depreciation costs. As you would appreciate, there was no impact on pre-AASB 16 EBITDA from this. Excluding internal feed costs, operating costs for the new Bostock acquisition and AASB 16 related amounts as shown on the slide, all other costs were $9.6 million lower than PCP with lower volumes and the implementation of a wide variety of cost management initiatives and further operational efficiencies. Depreciation declined 17.8% due largely to a reduction in AASB 16 depreciation relating to the conversion of the contract growers. Finally, our net finance expense declined 9.8%, also from the reduction in AASB 16 interest, partially offset by a higher average debt balance, including the settlement of the acquisition of BOTOX in July 2024. Now turning to the balance sheet. Inventories and biologicals declined $27.5 million on PCP due to a combination of seasonal reduction in Turkey inventory, the benefit of inventory management initiatives implemented in the second half '24 to reduce further processed poultry inventories and a reduction in feed inventories due to lower first half purchasing and a decline in feed costs. As you can see, right-of-use assets and lease liabilities both declined significantly versus June 2024, which is largely due to the conversion of 36 grower contracts since June 2024 to performance-based variable contracts. Net debt increased to $49.4 million, including the settlement of the acquisition of Bostock in New Zealand, while a small increase in our leverage ratio to 1.8x sees it remain within our target range of 1 to 2x. Moving now to cash flow. We saw an improvement in cash conversion in the first half to 94.5% as a result of improved working capital, in particular, CapEx and acquisitions totaled $69.7 million, $11.5 million of core and high-growth project investment and as noted earlier, the settlement of Bostock. Dividends paid in the period relates to the final FY '24 fully franked dividend of $0.08 per share. AASB 16 interest and principal payments declined $20 million due to the conversion of the contract grower contracts and the acquisition of the previously leased Bolivar primary processing plant. Turning now to capital expenditure. We classify our capital expenditure into 3 main areas: sustaining, investing and strategic CapEx. During the half, sustaining CapEx was $26.9 million, which was 91% of the pre-AASB 16 depreciation. There was $11.5 million of investing project expenditures, including $3 million on waterjet cutting projects in Australia and New Zealand, $2.7 million on the Ingleburn value enhanced decoupling project, $2.1 million on the fully cooked line upgrade at Lisarow and $1.5 million for the upgrade of our New Zealand bird receivable facilities. Strategic CapEx for the period related to the Bostock acquisition. Our leverage of 1.8x remains within our target range of 1 to 2x. During the period, we refinanced our existing syndicated financing agreement, an increase in the total size of the combined facilities of $200 million, combined with an increase in the weighted maturity by approximately 2.4 years, provides funding flexibility to progress our various operational and automation investment programs and to take advantage of other opportunities that may arise. Our sustaining CapEx is tracking well against our target depreciation rate. And as outlined on the previous slide, we continue to execute on several core and high-growth projects. Today, we have also declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.11 per share. Turning now to the feed market. As regular followers of Inghams will know, Inghams' actual feed pricing will differ to the market data presented here due to a variety of factors relating to the purchasing and pricing of delivered grain and soybean meal that we use as well as the level of forward cover that we may hold at any given point in time. We continue to hold between 3 and 9 months of forward cover as is our policy. The observed pricing of key feed inputs has been moderating since mid- to late FY '23, noting that Australian wheat prices have been slower to adjust than soybean prices over this time. Observed wheat prices have declined approximately 10% and soy prices declined approximately 16% during the first half. Global soybean production forecasts predict growth of approximately 6% year-on-year as a result of supply conditions. Pricing is expected to remain subdued through 2025. Noting, however, any escalation in global trade tensions could result in increased price volatility. In terms of wheat, Australia has had another strong harvest in '24, '25 with production forecast to increase by 26% year-on-year. While international demand has been lower, domestic demand remains firm. Rainfall forecasts are encouraging for pre-planting period for the next crop, suggesting potential for another favorable production year. I will now hand back to Andrew to discuss the segment performance.

Thanks, Gary. Okay. Turning to Australia. Core poultry volume declined 4.1% versus PCP due to a temporary reduction in the number of birds processed during the period to both manage both further processed inventory levels in the second half of FY '24 and the transition to the new Woolworths supply agreement. Revenue declined 2.5% on PCP with the decline in core poultry volume partially offset by core poultry net selling price growth of 1.6%. A small reduction in byproduct revenue was driven by strong volume growth in the transition of some third-party wholesale sales to in-house processing, the temporary closure of export markets due to earlier avian influenza outbreaks at non- Inghams farms and a change in Turkey rendering arrangements resulting in the sale of higher weight raw material offset by lower byproducts pricing. Growth in external feed volumes was offset by a decline in pricing, reflecting the reduction in key feed inputs. Total underlying pre-AASB 16 costs declined 2% with internal feed costs declining $27.8 million and cost management initiatives successfully limiting the growth of other costs to $2.7 million. Turning to New Zealand. Core poultry volume increased 5% versus PCP, driven by growth in both retail and export channels with Bostock's contribution during the period matching our expectations. External feed volumes declined 5.1% versus PCP due to an increase in internal feed requirements and a reduction in external customer business. New Zealand revenue increased 1.5% versus PCP due to the combination of core poultry volume growth and growth in core poultry NSP of 0.6%, partially offset by lower byproduct revenue and a reduction in external feed revenue due to a decline in feed NSP as a result of lower key feed inputs. Excluding the acquisition of Bostock, New Zealand NSP growth was minus 1.7%. Total underlying costs pre-AASB 16 increased 3.9% versus PCP due largely to an increase in volume in operating costs from the Bostock and Bromby Park acquisitions and growth in various key operational expenditures. Internal feed costs improved by $6.2 million during the period due to a decline in international price of key feed inputs. Bostock Brothers made a full period contribution following settlement of the acquisition on the 1st of July. The business provided incremental additional volume, 1 kiloton, which represents 2.9 points of New Zealand's core poultry volume growth. On an NSP basis, Bostock contributed 4.9% to New Zealand retail NSP growth and 2.3% to overall New Zealand NSP growth. From an earnings perspective, Bostock made a first half EBITDA contribution of NZD 1.4 million, broadly in line with expectations. Turning now to our guidance and outlook. Today, we are reaffirming our current guidance for FY '25, which is for core poultry volumes to decline by 1% to 3% versus the normalized FY '24 volume outcome, for underlying EBITDA pre-AASB 16 of between $236 million and $250 million, which will represent growth on FY '24. In Australia, the near-term outlook for consumer conditions remain subdued as higher living costs and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to influence consumer behavior. With that said, this week's widely expected decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the official cash rate signals the start of a gradual easing cycle, which as it progresses, should provide some much needed relief and support to consumers and economic growth in Australia. Following a series of interest rate cuts in New Zealand, consumer conditions have shown some signs of improvement with further support coming from this week's additional 50 basis points cut to official cash rate. While the rate of inflation in New Zealand has moderated significantly, cost of living pressures remain a challenge for households. Our FY '25 core poultry volume guidance reflects the phased introduction of the new Woolworths supply agreement, the timing commencement of new business and the ongoing effects of cost-of-living pressures on consumer discretionary spending. We expect core poultry net selling prices to show modest growth in FY '25. Based on current commodity pricing levels and observed trends, we expect some net benefit from lower key feed costs in FY '25. We are successfully minimizing cost growth across the business and continue to expect to deliver annualized cost savings through procurement, operational and continuous improvement initiatives that will significantly contribute to offsetting these general inflationary effects. Finally, total capital expenditure and acquisitions in the range of $100 million to $120 million is forecast for FY '25. So, before we move to questions, I'd like to make a few general remarks about the business. We believe that Inghams represents a compelling proposition. We have deep relationships with our customers who prioritize poultry. We operate at scale, which translates to efficiency in a large and growing market, executing against relevant consumer insights. This provides a platform for delivering robust and attractive earnings over the long term. We are leaders in safety, quality, welfare and sustainability. We have the right capabilities and experience to execute our strategic plan, that is underpinned by the financial strength and flexibility that enables us to invest for growth. Okay. That does conclude our formal presentation. So, I'll now hand back to the operator, and we'll take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first caller comes from Ben Gilbert from Jarden.

Just the first question, there's obviously a big chunk of supply that's going to be coming on towards the end of this year and into next year in New South Wales from one of your competitors. Just in terms of contracts and risk of something else similar to the Woolworths contract, which we've done a great job recovering. How do you see that and how are you planning for that? And do you envisage any risk around contracts over the next 12 to 18 months on the back of it?

So, I would very quickly say there's no risk in that time frame in terms of what we know about currently secured business. Secondly, as I think we've talked about this before, in different conversations, that new capacity, while it will come on stream, will be phased. In the first instance, we expect it will be absorbing volume from other facilities that will be closed. So, it won't be a sudden flood of new capacity or new volume into the market in that time frame and will come on gradually over the next number of years. So how we're thinking about that is that things should be relatively stable through that period that you are talking about.

And then the second one for me. Just in terms of market rationality, I was surprised to see how much of a reduction you guys have had in your wholesale market volume. Just it feels like probably more recently wholesale pricing has been a bit more mixed. How are you seeing market rationality in terms of pricing and tendering generally around terms in the market?

Again, I haven't seen -- we haven't witnessed any considerable change from the normal environment in which we operate. There's probably been -- I guess there's been a bit more inventory in the market or product in the market for a couple of reasons. One is just that recovery, everyone has been recovering sort of post-COVID and building up stocks. And I think also we've had a bit of movement in contracts, one thing the main one. So, there's probably some little bit of extra setting to give people who won some of that business some safety in terms of their stocks and what have you. So that's probably contributed to some extent to the wholesale market being a little more subdued price being down. Also, the Avian influenza outbreaks while they haven't affected chicken meat, haven't affected export markets. So, some of that volume has sort of stayed onshore as well. But in general, our observation would be that there hasn't been any particularly significant change in which the market is behaving in terms of price.

Then just one for me, maybe to you, Gary or Andrew, I appreciate there's probably no such thing as a normal year and a lot of poultry given feed and everything. But in a normal year, in theory, should there be much seasonality in your earnings half-to-half? And I suppose the reason I'm asking is I appreciate guidance, but you've obviously got some tailwinds for feed into the second half, you're recovering these volumes. Just understanding how we should think about seasonality, all else equal from 1H to 2H.

Ben, yes, we have had seasonality across history, tends to be lower volumes in the second half, both through demand and then also available production days as well in that period. So, we've talked about, I agree when is a normal year, we've talked about roughly the first half is 51% or 52% of earnings if you look back.

The next question comes from Craig Woolford from MST Marquee.

So, my first question, just on the New Zealand business and what is underlying, excluding Bostock, quite meaningful gross margin pressure. Can you just give us a bit more, I guess, background on that? And do you see that persisting into the second half?

I think what we're seeing there is a little bit of a mix issue in the market, particularly with the cost-of-living pressures. So, there's been -- that's the principal driver behind that change and some cost pressure as well. I don't think it's a big underlying change in that business long term. I think it's something more of the short term. And particularly as we see some of the -- as I noted in the formal presentation, we are seeing some consumer confidence coming back into the New Zealand market. Now they've had, I think, up to 3 rate changes in relatively quick succession. And what that will do hopefully start to improve some of that discretionary spend that will favor both QSR and some of the sort of the higher-value poultry options like free range and what have you. So, I don't see it as being an underlying change, just some short-term pressures.

My second question is about, obviously, the ability to win some new business in Australia against the loss of Woolworths volumes over this year. And it is great to see. And I know this is a sensitive topic for you to address, but how do we think about it from an overall market perspective? Is it -- Inghams loses a bit of business from Woolworths and your major competitors pick up that and you pick up some of theirs? Like is there anyone that's a net loser out of this? Or how do we understand if you have won some other business and lost Woolworths, how it all ties together from an overall industry perspective?

It's an interesting question. I mean, obviously, I think we've done a very good job to recover as much as we have in the relatively short period of time. And that's primarily come from retail customers, so us being able to improve business with both Coles, Aldi and Metcash across that time frame. But there's also been some QSR wins in there as well, which has been good for us. So, look, how it plays out over the long term, we'll have to wait and see. I think it will be again over the next number of years, we'll have a more diverse customer base, frankly, and we'll have a better balance in our customer base. And I think that's going to be certainly healthy for Inghams, probably healthy for the market overall as well in terms of market rationality. But I think as we work our way through this, we were confident when we talked to this at our results 6, 7 months ago, we were confident it was a manageable transition and we navigate through it and the impact would be a better-balanced customer portfolio. And I think these results demonstrate that we're making good progress towards that.

It's been a busy day, but just trying to understand at a group level, the gross margin outcome. I haven't had a chance to go into the intricate details. Obviously, feed costs were favorable. What are some of the other movements in the gross margin line on an underlying basis, Gary, just to understand what some of the -- essentially the offsets to the benefits you've had from lower feed costs?

Yes. So, I think it's good to be looking at underlying because gross profit at a stat level has the big AASB 16 move in it as well. So, if you then exclude that and look at underlying, it's probably -- if you go what's the biggest factor is just the lower volumes that we had in the first half, the PCP. And then I think we've offset a little bit of that through some really good cost initiatives, but not fully accounting for the volume fall that we've experienced in the first half versus PCP.

The next question comes from Phil Kimber from E&P.

Just a quick -- I wanted to follow up, I think Craig asked about New Zealand. Just wanted to know if that was sort of in line with your expectations because it's down quite materially on PCP. Now maybe that's a base effect, but had the benefit of Bostock, which you've called out, but there was no Woolworths lost volume in that market. So, I was just wondering if there's -- that was sort of in line with your expectations and the big percentage year-on-year reduction is more about base effects than any other sort of issue we should be concerned about?

Again, on an underlying basis because a lot of the AASB 16 impact was actually in New Zealand in this period. So again, AASB 16. You're right, there is been net benefit of Bostock coming in. They do have some volume growth. Probably you would have noticed we called out in the presentation that in NZ dollars price NSP declined 1.7% in New Zealand on the ex-Bostock's business. So that's probably the thing in New Zealand. How was that against expectations? Of course, we would have rather not seen that. And we're also comping again, a really strong New Zealand half last year. So, I think we're still pretty optimistic New Zealand is going to post a good result for FY '25.

And then just -- because it is really confusing with the growth rates just at face value look very strong required in the second half. And I think a lot of that is just base effects. But do you know -- you've still got a reasonable range there, and you've got 3 months or so to go. What are the sort of key swing factors sort of between the bottom end and the top end of your range over the next few months? So just wanted to get a sense of that.

So, I assume when you're saying a heavy growth rate, you're comparing that to the second half in FY '24 because [indiscernible] called out seasonality. So yes, based on the numbers, low end of our range is $112 million and high end of our range is $126 million versus $124 million in this half. So, I think from a seasonality and historical perspective, that looks pretty in line. What are the swing factors? Can I just start with the normal parts of our business. So how do we go with securing that additional contract business. But we're talking about where does feed price actually end up sitting in the second half, what's the operational performance during the period. So, I realize I have not been insightful at all telling you things you probably already know about the business. But there's nothing particularly tricky. It's just the normal business activities in the second half that will sit somewhere in that range.

And on the feed cost is my last question. I mean I would have thought you had pure visibility on that now if you forward by 3 to 9 months and it's got to get through an inventory turn. There's only 3 months left to go. Don't you sort of have pretty good visibility on your feed cost now? Like can that be a factor from here? It can be a factor in '26, but I'm talking '25.

So not so much. And we talk about having forward cover between 3 and 9 months, which I guess is the same as up to 9 months. So yes, largely, we've got good visibility of feed costs in FY '25 and FY '26 is more of a factor.

The next question comes from Ajay Mariswamy from Macquarie.

Just a question around QSR volumes. Some feedback we've heard around the industry is QSR seems to have reached a bit of a turning point, and I know you guys called out that it has stabilized. When can we start to expect volumes to come back again?

Probably a question better directed to the QSR operators, but certainly, our dealings with them, they are feeling a bit more confident about their outlook, particularly over the balance of this calendar year. So, we're seeing, I won't go into the specifics of customers, but we're seeing some improvement in some customer performance, which is encouraging. And certainly, the rate of decline has certainly bottomed out. So, we're hoping that we're at the worst of it at this point. And as we look forward, we can get back into growth there. And those customers are spending heavily on marketing and promotion, which we're supporting in terms with products and what have you. So, look, I mean, with hopefully, with some improved consumer sentiment with maybe some more rate cuts over the next number of months, I think we can be confident that, that sector of the market is going to be stronger as we move through the balance of this year and into next fiscal year.

And just around the fact that there's more and more QSR brands that are, I guess, more chicken focused and how you guys go about winning those contracts, what are you seeing around competitive intensity with those new or newer sort of QSR operators? And how are you guys placed to win additional contracts there?

Yes. Obviously, we're engaging with all the players across the QSR market. We've actually had some quite nice wins in recent times. So, I mean, the competitive intensity is not really different from how it's ever been. It's always hard on business, that's for sure. But we're in there talking to all of those customers. There are good options in the pipeline, and we're looking to get a reasonable share of that growth as it starts to come back into the market. Remembering that we've already got very strong positions with the well-established players as well. So, I think that's an area to be optimistic about over the next 12 months.

And just final one for me around some of the costs around admin and selling, down about $17 million on the half. Can you call out what the drivers are there? And are there more cost-out opportunities in that area or other sort of line items?

So, I mean there's always opportunity, but I wouldn't be banking in lots on that side. I think we had called out last year that were a bit higher as well. So, some of it is comping last year through. But yes, there's been a big focus there in the current year, but I wouldn't be factoring in a huge more amount coming through.

The next question comes from Richard Amland from CLSA.

Sorry, I don't have a prepared question.

Our next question is a text question from [ John Reid ].

On the balance sheets, I think the receivables increased. Can you comment on this having regard to reduced revenue?

We tend to have higher seasonality in our working capital at December versus June. That's largely back on a large sales period in December just coming into Christmas. So that's probably why you would see a disconnect between those 2, which we see correct itself at the full year-end. I hope that helps.

As there are no further questions, I will hand back to Andrew to close the meeting.

Thank you, and I appreciate everyone joining us this morning, and some of you we'll talk to later in the day. So again, on behalf of our team, thank you for joining us today, and we'll talk further. Thank you.