Instalco AB (publ) ($INSTAL)

Welcome to this presentation of Instalco's report for the first quarter 2026. My name is Per Sjostrand. I'm CEO of Instalco. And with me today is our CFO, Christina Kassberg; and for the Q&A part, our Head of IR, Mathilda Eriksson. The start of 2026 is further proof that we are moving in the right direction. And as always, I will start with a short snapshot of Instalco today. We are a leading installation group across the Nordics with an established platform also in Germany. Our strength is our decentralization, I would say, local companies close to customers, combined with common standards, tools, and governance. With over 6,000 employees, we are exposed to market segments driven by long-term needs such as energy efficiency and electrification. First, for a quick glance at our LTM numbers. Net sales amounted to SEK 13.7 billion, and we ended the quarter with a backlog of almost SEK 10.4 billion, which represents a steady book-to-bill of around 75%. This is a sign of more activity in the market as well as proactive selling from our companies. At the same time, we will still have the available capacity to take on more projects when the market improves further. Our EBITA for rolling 12 months amounts to SEK 877 million, corresponding to a margin of 6.4%, a significant step-up compared to Q4. The strong cash flow in Q1 as well as throughout the last year kept our LTM cash flow from operations above SEK 1 billion, showcasing our strong focus on improving working capital. And this means that we report a cash conversion of 100%, and that is exactly on target, in fact. Then let me briefly summarize the quarter. We are starting to see clear signs that the market is improving. Activity is picking up, although it's still uneven. And we see that in our order backlog, which is growing in all 3 countries. At the same time, this is not just about the market. The work we are doing is making a difference and Instalco 2.0 is gaining traction. There is, of course, still a lot of work to be done, but we are confident that we are doing the right things. And that -- and this means that we are seeing improvements in both organic growth and in EBITA -- on EBITA level. We also continue to strengthen cash flow. And importantly, we have fewer major negative project deviation. That's very important. That gives us a more stable business and a better foundation going forward. And for now, I will hand over to Christina, who will take you through our financial development in more detail.

Thank you, Per. I'll start with net sales and order backlog and how they developed during the quarter. Net sales grew by 4.4% to slightly above SEK 3.4 billion. Currency had a negative impact on the outcome with minus 1%. Organic growth, on the other hand, remained positive at 4.9%, and we saw growth in all 3 countries. Our order backlog also reported even more growth of 15% or 14.2% organically. On order backlog, we saw good growth in all 3 countries and the most in Norway. What I said in Q4 also holds true for Q1. Especially for the Norwegian order growth, it is important to keep in mind that many of the projects taken have long durations. I would therefore caution against expecting it to quickly go to execution. In addition to the backlog, we have our service business, which remains an important stabilizing factor. For the first quarter, service amounted to 33% of sales. Then moving on to the earnings. As expected, the quarter was impacted by normal seasonal patterns with lower activity during the first 2 months of the year, followed by a strong finish in March. EBITA amounted to SEK 201 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.8%. The year-on-year development reflects both improved operational performance and to some extent items affecting comparability in the prior year. Overall, we are seeing gradual improvements in underlying profitability, although the development remains somewhat uneven. Improved margins continues to be a key priority across the group. And before we move on to the next slide, from this quarter, we have moved to country-based segment reporting, Sweden, Norway, and Finland, to better reflect how the business is managed. I will now walk you through each country. First up, over to a slide that summarizes Sweden in Q1. Overall, net sales grew to SEK 2.45 billion with an organic growth of 1.5%. The order backlog increased by 7.6% compared to a year ago, to SEK 7.1 billion. The EBITA amounted to SEK 124 million, corresponding to a margin of 5% compared to 4.1% last year. The stronger margin is the result of the segment no longer being burdened by last year's one-off costs combined with operational improvements. Improved margins and earnings are evident across the majority of geographical areas. At the same time, performance continues to be weighed down by a persistently challenging market and some delayed industrial projects. Sweden experienced even clearer seasonality effects than the other countries and is still working through projects taken in a tougher market environment. The market is showing clear signs of recovery with higher activity and more projects moving forward. At the same time, the development remains uneven. Decision-making is still relatively slow, but we are seeing more inquiries and better opportunities to be selective. Demand in technical consulting, automation, and digitalization continues to strengthen, indicating a gradual improvement. The industrial market remains mixed with stable development in areas such as electrification, defense, and parts of the green transition. But as always, it is important to keep in mind that installations is late cyclical. And now for a summary of Finland. Net sales grew organically by 30% to SEK 431 million. FX impacted negatively by minus 6.2%. The order backlog increased by 9.9% compared to a year ago or 8.9% organically. EBITA amounted to SEK 52 million compared to SEK 7 million last year. This corresponds to a margin improvement from 2% to 12%. The improvement is explained by higher utilization and better project execution in several companies as well as a very strong performance in companies with projects towards industrial clients. These companies are based and reported in Finland, but the largest share of their customers and projects are located in Sweden. And internally, these companies belong to our business area industry. As for the Finnish market, activity remains low with residential construction and larger private investments still largely on hold. A broader market recovery is not expected in the near term and overall sentiment remains cautious. At the same time, investments linked to the energy transition, defense, and digital infrastructure continues to support underlying demand over time. And finally, a summary of Norway. Overall, net sales were up slightly to SEK 552 million and organic growth amounted to 3.6%. FX effects impacted negatively by minus 2.6%. EBITA amounted to SEK 26 million compared to SEK 18 million last year. This corresponds to a margin improvement from 3.3% to 4.6%. The improved margin is mainly explained by better utilization and a more favorable project mix compared to last year. Several companies have achieved good profitability in ongoing projects. More proactive sales efforts and somewhat less aggressive pricing pressure have also contributed positively. Norway showed very strong development of the order backlog, which increased by over 40% compared to a year ago. Norway was showing good order intake over the past few quarters, which drives this number up, but it also represents a sequential uptick of 18% compared to Q4. It is, however, important to remember that some of these are, for us, larger orders with longer durations. I would, therefore, caution against expecting it to quickly go to execution, especially since the macro environment continues to create some uncertainty around investment decisions and project timing in Norway with several projects in Phase 1 showing delays regarding to the start of Phase 2. In Norway, the market continues to stabilize with clearer signs of recovery, although at a gradual pace. Activity remains strongest in Oslo and the Southern regions, supported by public investments, while we also see some improvements in commercial segments such as logistics and technology. Competition remains high, although pricing discipline has improved somewhat. Then on to the cash generation in the quarter. In Q1, cash flow from operations amounted to SEK 234 million compared to SEK 223 million a year ago. The increase is mostly related to the stronger earnings and somewhat higher adjustments for noncash items related to unrealized FX losses. We still managed to showcase a working capital release of SEK 75 million, although this is slightly lower than last year's, mainly due to tougher comparables with a larger reduction in accounts receivables and contract assets in the prior year period. Taken together with a strong development throughout this and previous quarters means we ended up with a cash conversion at 100%. In total, the cash flow performance gives us confidence in the direction and the quality of our execution. This cash flow profile strengthens our financial foundation and increases our flexibility going forward. So by that, over to you, Per.

Thank you, Christina. And I have to say a fantastic work done with cash flow, you and your team have done. It gives us a lot of opportunities going forward. So I'm very satisfied with that. So then let's have a look at our performance on a rolling 12-month basis in relation to our financial targets. Our targets are defined over a business cycle. You have to have that in mind. And in the current market, we continue to prioritize profitability and disciplined project selection over pure volume growth. Despite this, we are happy to have reported 2 quarters now in a row of organic growth. And we have complemented this with a strategic acquisition, TSM Taksakerhetsmontorerna, announced in mid-April. The EBITA margin came in at 6.4%, a clear improvement from just 1 quarter ago, but we are still far from satisfied. The implementation of Instalco 2.0 is progressing according to plan, and we see room to improve further in our operations. Over to cash -- operational cash flow. It was again strong with a conversion rate, as Christina mentioned, of 100%, at our target, supported by ongoing improvements in working capital efficiency. Our leverage remains somewhat over our own long-term target of 2.5x net debt to EBITDA, though it has continued to come down and as of the end of Q1 sits at 2.6x. The Board proposes a dividend of SEK 0.5 per share for approval at the AGM next week. And of course, we remain firmly focused on delivering on our climate commitments as part of our long-term targets. Let's go to the CEO theme for this quarter. And let me take a few minutes to explain how our business is composed and what actually drives our performance. Instalco is built as a group of specialized companies. And over time, that has resulted in a well-balanced portfolio across projects, disciplines, customers, and end markets. And this is because -- I mean, it means our performance is not dependent. It's important to say also that our performance is not dependent on any single segment or type of project, and I think that's very important to mention. If we start with the type of work we do, these charts show our net sales for 2025, broken down in different ways. I think you can find them in our annual report. Around 70% of our business comes from service and renovation. And these are typical smaller ongoing or repeat assignments offered closer to the customer and somewhat less correlated to the business cycle. In addition, the majority of our projects are not fixed price. This gives us more flexibility in execution and reduce the risk in more complex projects. And taken together, this means that a significant part of our business is either recurring or has a low risk profile. Looking in or at how the business is distributed, we have a broad mix across disciplines. No single discipline dominates and we combine several technical areas within the group. And the same applies to our customer base. We work with a wide range of customer groups from construction and industrial companies to public sector and property owners. This variety reduce our dependency on individual segments and gives us a more stable foundation over time. At the same time, this is not static. As part of Instalco 2.0, we are working more actively with our customer mix, including more proactive sales, it's very important, and clearer prioritization built, for example, [ ABC ] categories. So this allows us to gradually shift towards the right type of customers and projects over time. Finally, if we look at our exposure across end markets, we see a similar pattern. This chart also show net sales for 2025. And compared to previous years, we have now broken the end market down into more categories, including logistics, warehousing, energy production, and data centers. So despite shifts in the market over time, our overall exposure remains well balanced. And going forward, we will continue to actively shape this mix as part of Instalco 2.0. No single end market dominates, and we maintain a presence across several segments with different underlying drivers. This reduces cyclicality and makes the group less sensitive to changes in any one part of the market. And overall, this composition also -- of the group gives us multiple drivers of performance and supports a more stable and resilient business over time. I will underline that. So before wrapping up, I want to briefly return to Instalco 2.0. As you understand, this is my favorite topic. While the previous section focused on our business mix and multiple drivers of performance, this is the framework that underpins how we execute across all of that. And this is a slide we showed last quarter, but it's worth repeating. Instalco 2.0 is not a one-off initiative. It's a long-term shift in how we run the business. In Q3, we defined -- 2025, we defined the framework and aligned the operational model. In Q4 2025, we moved into execution, embedding it into daily operations. Now during Q1, that work has continued according to plan. The rollout is progressing. The structure is being applied more consistently across the group, and it remains our top priority. We are still early, but this is about building a more disciplined and consistent way of working over time with continuous improvement at the core. So let us return to the quarter and summarize the key takeaways. We continue to improve EBITA. And this quarter, the progress is broader with more parts of the business contributing. It's a step in the right direction even if there is still more to do. I will also underline that. At the same time, we are seeing clearly -- clearer signs of recovery in the market. Activity is picking up, but it remains uneven. And given the continued uncertainty in the global market environment, we maintain a disciplined and selective approach. Operationally, we delivered strong cash flow, as I have said earlier, and an even stronger financial position, which gives us increased flexibility going forward. Instalco 2.0 is continuing to gain traction. The changes we are implementing are becoming more visible in daily operations, and we are seeing the benefits of a more structured way of working. This is very much thanks to the engagement across the organization and the work being done at all levels to continuously improve. And importantly, we are operating with greater discipline in execution with fewer major negative project deviations, contributing to a more stable and predictable performance. All in all, we are moving in the right direction step-by-step from a stronger position. So -- and with that, I would like to thank you for listening, and open up for questions. First, the telephone conference --from the telephone conference, but those of you following via webcast can submit written questions as well. Thank you very much.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Oscar Ronnkvist from SEB.

So my first question would be on the margin. So in Finland, obviously it looks very strong as it has done over the last few quarters. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts about the sustainability of that level. And also I wanted to sort of hear on the opposite side in Sweden, if we adjust for the one-offs last year, I think the margin is down around 170 basis points. I think you talked about project margins being quite soft in the delivery that you have in Q4. So just wanted to hear if you have any comments on when the lower project margins are sort of out of the delivery.

Shall we start maybe with the question around Sweden? I mean, in Sweden, we have improved margins. We have a more stable underlying activity. And also, I also want to say that our project portfolio and our back -- order backlogs, they are more stable. The projects are more stable. We are not writing ups and downs all the time. We have more -- the foundation is very, very solid, I would say. You don't see that so much in the margins, but I have -- I think I'm rather satisfied with that as well. We have worked in another way with order backlogs and order intake. So I think that will improve. So that's Sweden. We don't see it yet, but I think that will come. Finland -- I mean, you were talking about Finland, Christina, as well. I mean, we -- of course, we had a low margin last year. So the uplift is very encouraging, and it's driven by higher utilization, improved project execution, and strong performance in companies. I also want to add that while these industrial companies in Finland are reported in Finland, much of the business is in Sweden. So it's integrated with our industrial operations there. Maybe you should look -- put that together. And also given the small size of the Finland segment, we can, of course, expect quarterly volatility since individual projects have a larger effect on the whole. So we, therefore, recommend analyzing performance over rolling 12 months rather than individual quarters. I don't -- do you have something to add to that, Christina? No?

No.

Okay.

My next question would just be on the turmoil recently we have seen in geopolitics and specifically on potential cost inflation. And I mean, if you can recall what you did a few years ago when we had high cost inflation, we see fuel prices coming up, et cetera, et cetera. So can you talk a little bit about how you are dealing with the potential cost inflation now in some of the contracts that you have and also higher fuel prices, et cetera?

A very good question, and it's always actual. But I mean, the situation is clearly more uncertain. That's for sure. This is not a new territory for us as an installation group. And we have a lot of lesson learned from 2021, 2022. So from an operational perspective, this is something we try to actively manage. And we have closer supply -- lesson learned, we have closer supplier relationships, and we are used to handling price fluctuations. And we are also working more consistently with contract structures, price clauses, for example, project selection and that reduce risk over time. So we are aware of the -- of course, we are aware about the situation, but we are taking actions to meet that, I would say. And lesson learned from 2021, 2022, definitely.

And just to follow-up, have you seen any significant pressure on any sort of cost inflation near term or?

Not yet, not yet. I mean, for the first quarter, the impact on our businesses has been very limited, if any, I would say. So no, we haven't seen it yet. But of course, we understand that it will come.

I think the final question just on more technical, maybe you can speak now on the CapEx levels. I think they are a little bit higher than usual in the quarter. I just wanted to see if there's anything structural. I think it was CapEx to sales of around 1.3%. Normally, it's around half of that approximately. Anything structural? Or is it temporary in Q1?

I would say, from the start, we are a CapEx-light business, but some investments are necessary, of course, and these can fluctuate a bit from quarter-to-quarter. And significant for Q1, we had some more CapEx investment in our industrial companies in Q1. So that is what you -- can be seen in this quarter.

The next question comes from Karl Bokvist from ABG Sundal Collier.

I had a follow-up there on the Finnish business. I hear what you're saying here, but just to be a bit mindful of the fact that I believe about a year ago or so, you had some very profitable projects in Norway that you actually flagged that you had had good project execution and also said that in the next -- in the upcoming quarters, things would not -- perhaps not be as good. So just to kind of verify or double check here, also given the high organic growth in the quarter. Is there anything similar happening here now where the Finnish companies are approaching the end of a few very profitable completed projects?

Hello, Karl. I think, as for Finland, they have also had good order intake. That's continuing also going forward. But then, of course, 12% is an exceptionally strong margin. And as Per mentioned, it's important to remember that it's quite a small segment. So I think quarterly variations here will not be unexpected.

And I would say, they are doing very well. So I mean, it's not just [indiscernible].

But it's not like we will see a few very abnormal quarters. I understand the variations, but just to get that kind of answered. So the second question is -- yes, sorry?

I think 12% is a very, very strong performance. We're probably expecting continued good performance, but we're not going to make any promises on margin levels.

Then on -- we can both look regionally, but also just on a group level, it's encouraging to see that the contract sales business is still growing or growing for the second quarter in a row. At the same time, we see services being down a little. I'm just curious here if it has to do with some of the underlying units shifting from service work to contract work, or if there's anything worth flagging here on the service business side of Instalco.

I mean, we are showing growth for the group as more project-related business has picked up. And this grows quicker than service. And it's, therefore, natural that service as a percentage of sales comes down somewhat. And as for individual quarters, services in absolute numbers can, of course, fluctuate somewhat. But it's a balance between projects and service, and so that can fluctuate. And we are very comfortable with what we now see here and we are comfortable with that level that we have.

The next question comes from Johan Dahl from Danske Bank.

Just trying to drill a little bit deeper on the Swedish performance. I was wondering if you can divide it slightly on -- I'm talking about this margin decline year-on-year in Sweden. Can you divide it in -- slightly in contracting service? Also if -- do I interpret you correctly that you're referring to a more stable order book that will materialize and sort of rectify the situation during '26? So how should we read your comments there on the stable and the quality of the order book?

That's a good question, of course. But I would say that we have a more stable order book. We have -- there have been -- we took on contracts in 2024, 2025 that we see still have sort of dragging us. But I mean that it's a more healthy business today. Seeing result of it will take some time, not years, but still quarters. So my gut feeling is that, as I mentioned, is that we will see improvements in margin here. And I will be very surprised if that's not coming up -- coming in quarters ahead. So I'm rather comfortable even though we have a lower or a flat margin in Sweden. But I think they are doing the right things. We are taking all the actions that we have decided on. So I'm not worried. I'm rather comfortable about the Swedish, how they perform and will perform in the future.

So it's more a pricing issue than utilization issue in Sweden [indiscernible] is that right?

Yes. Exactly. Exactly.

Can you provide some or any update on the German venture such as timing, latest MTM earnings and possibly cash outflow?

I mean, first of all, a long-term agreement underpins the collaboration between Instalco and Fabri. And now we are -- as you might know, we are approaching the next phase of ownership, in line with our multiphase model. But at the same time, execution is dependent on the right timing and preparations. We are -- I think we can talk around about the second half of 2026 now. They perform well. And I'm sitting in the chair there, of course, as a chairman. But also, I think that they perform well, and we have no signs of ups and downs or that the market will go down. So I think so far, so good. And we will follow our ambitions to sign off -- sign here. And...

Yes. And all in all, I can add that, as said in Q4, the timing for step 2 is still expected to become relevant during the second half of 2026.

The next question comes from Johan Lonnqvist Sunden from DNB Carnegie.

First one is also a little bit -- sorry for sticking on the Swedish margin, but just -- I think it's quite important to get just a sense of what's happening because you're talking about margin improvement, but what we can see on an adjusted basis, margin is going down. And you refer -- you highlighted in the report that building automation showing black numbers for the first time. Is there any other part of the Swedish business where we see adjusted EBITDA margins going up year-over-year here in Q1 that's worth mentioning?

We have a strong industrial sector. I think that -- also, we have not so many write-downs. But of course, we have to take in consideration companies -- sorry, projects that we took in 2024, 2025. They are, as I mentioned, of course, we haven't finished them all. So I can just repeat what I said. I think the industrial part is doing well. And I think other parts of geographic areas also, there have been an uneven situation, but I think they are catching up now, the southern part of Sweden and maybe Stockholm as well. So I don't have any other answer on that.

To add to that, that if we look at the different geographical areas, we are seeing, even on an adjusted level, improvements in a lot of the business areas.

Yes. And I could also maybe add that Sweden expect -- had a clearer -- more [indiscernible] expect than the other countries this quarter.

Yes.

And as I said, still working through projects taken in a tougher market environment. But also Sweden had a good pickup of the margins in the third month in the quarter in March.

And we had...

I think someone caught in your comment there.

Yes.

What did you say? Sweden had weather-related problems or?

No. The seasonality effects in Q1 was tougher in Sweden than in other -- our other countries in this quarter, but showed -- Sweden showed a very good pickup in March. So...

When it's very cold outside, even if we are often inside the buildings. But when it's cold outside, the whole pace of our industry is going down. And we had a very tough situation in January, February due to the weather. So I think you have to have that in mind as well.

Yes, tougher than normal, so to say, in that sense.

Tougher than normal, absolutely, with both cold and snow.

And is it possible to give any kind of comments on progress beginning of Q2? We're now end of April.

Sorry. You know the answer. Sorry. We will not give you any comments. But we had a strong March.

And my final question is on the cash flow. And it puzzles me a little bit the kind of level of how much tax you pay and the kind of difference you book in the P&L and what we see in the cash flow. Can you give some kind of reason why you're having such a low tax cost booked in the P&L versus how much you pay in the cash flow statement? It's been the theme now for quite a while.

Yes. I could say we have lots of entities, as you know, 150 entities, and from one quarter to another. We don't make year-end tax calculations in each quarter as we do in the full year and in Q4. And that's the main reason, I would say, that you can't draw the final conclusion on the tax level from a single quarter.

And how should we think going forward? Are you in a situation where you paid a little bit too much? And the taxes paid should come down? Or is it...

You can take the conclusions when you look at the numbers for the full year and calculate this -- that from 2026 also. We don't have a new pattern here.

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions.

Thank you. We do have a written question coming in here. Has the number of electricians, plumbers, and similar tradespeople in the Nordic market declined in recent years? Or would you say that the overall capacity in your segment remains broadly unchanged?

No, I don't think it has declined. I don't think so. But on the other hand, I haven't those figures or numbers right here, but not decline, but maybe it's rather even. But I don't -- I'm not sure about that.

That was it for the written questions.

Thank you very much, everyone. Thank you.

We do have one more in the speaker queue, I think.

Uh-huh. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much, everyone. Good work. Thank you.