Instone Real Estate Group SE (INS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Publication Interim Report as of 30 June 2026 Essen Germany Conference Call. I am Hailey, the Chorus Call operator. The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Burkhard Sawazki, Head of IR and Capital Market Communications and Strategy. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q2 '26 earnings call. Our CEO, Kruno Crepulja; and our CFO, David Dreyfus, will walk you through our presentation and give you an update on our current business performance and our outlook. As usual, this will be followed by a Q&A session. With this, I would like to hand over directly to Kruno.

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our Q2 earnings call. In an environment heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, which have now lasted for far longer than any of us initially thought, we have reported a solid set of H1 figures. After a temporary demand shock at the start of the conflict in the Middle East, we saw a stabilization in investor sentiment and a steady return to more normalized sales ratios. We are definitely seeing a negative impact, but our business has still proven to be quite resilient, and our strong market position also helped us to protect against any margin pressure from the rise in energy costs and oil and energy-related building materials. A positive highlight was clearly the progress that we have made on our institutional deals over the last month. The attractiveness of our asset class for institutional investors is also underscored by the signing of a JV contract for our Dusseldorf-Benrath project with a GDV of around EUR 480 million. Let me add some more color on sales activities before we go into the details later during this presentation. In our retail business, January and February are generally quiet months from the demand side following a very busy year-end period. Recovery in demand during March and April was affected by increased macro uncertainty. Since May, we have been observing a steady recovery and retail sales are clearly above the previous year's level, but demand is still lagging behind our initial targets. Nevertheless, there are some factors that make us feel confident about further improving momentum in the second half of the year. First of all, the lead indicators are well above the previous year's level, still leaving room for catch-up effects with the normalization of the conversion rate. There's generally a stronger seasonality and sales starts will provide additional support. In our second customer segment, the institutional business, we are witnessing a positive development. In fact, we have made good progress on a number of projects, several of which, with a total volume of around EUR 150 million, are at an advanced stage. We believe that this is attributable to our attractive product offering with a high share of subsidized housing. Against the backdrop of attractive incentive schemes, this investment product is less vulnerable to the general turmoil. Another area impacted by the Middle East crisis is construction costs. There is a stronger rise in energy-related building materials, but we are pleased to report that all of our projects are well within their budgets. We are still benefiting from our strong market position. An important strategic step for us was the recent first signing of a JV with a high-profile international investor. The Ginkgo platform, part of Rothschild, has taken a 60% stake in our Dusseldorf-Benrath project with a total GDV of around EUR 480 million at an early stage of the project. We acquired the land plot last year, and it was our plan from the very beginning to carry out this project with a partner in order to achieve greater diversification in large-scale projects and also to generate an above-average return on our invested equity from additional income streams. We are, therefore, happy that we have reached this agreement, which also underscores the attractiveness of this project and generally of our asset class for new international investors entering the German market. Let us now take a brief look at our financial KPIs for the first half of 2026. Adjusted revenues amounted to EUR 184.2 million. There is still a minor impact from weather-related lower construction output, but the key driver for the stronger expected H2 will be a significant rise in sales, including institutional deals in the coming months. Our gross margin remained at a very high level of 27.9%, which clearly represents a benchmark in our industry. This result is even slightly better than we anticipated despite rising costs for building materials. Although this margin level cannot be extrapolated, we feel very comfortable with our full year target of more than 24%. Adjusted earnings after tax totaled EUR 1.3 million. This still low number is distorted by the low top line in H1. And as expected, it is also influenced by the more negative interest results from the increasing release of capitalized interest due to rising construction starts. In line with our planning, we expect the jump in earnings as revenues rise and operating and financial leverage unfold in the coming quarters. Sales volume increased to EUR 114.8 million. In our private customer business, sales increased by 26% year-on-year despite the adverse impact from the macro environment. Supported by the institutional business, we are making good progress. By sales launches and generally stronger seasonality, we expect a strong acceleration growth in the second half of 2026. The stabilization of the situation in the Middle East will nevertheless certainly be a key precondition for this. Moreover, worth to highlight, we generated a substantial operating cash flow of EUR 42.7 million, further strengthening our financial firepower. Based on business performance year-to-date and the continued positive trend in demand indicators, we confirm the lower end of our guidance for 2026. As the leading indicator for our business and despite the adverse impact from the geopolitical tension, we expect sales to increase towards the lower end of the range of EUR 650 million to EUR 750 million. In line with our sales performance, we now expect adjusted revenues and adjusted earnings after taxes to come in towards the lower end of the prospective guidance range of EUR 550 million to EUR 600 million and net profit of EUR 35 million to EUR 40 million. As pointed out, we feel very comfortable with our gross margin target of more than 24%. Our sales ratio shown in the upper chart reflects the steady improvement of the demand situation after the start of the conflict and the return to more normalized levels. Sales in our private customer business are up by roughly 26% year-on-year with momentum improving in the second quarter, which showed a year-on-year growth of 41%. Nevertheless, the effects of the increase in macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, including volatility in interest rates will ultimately lead to a shift in demand from private investors in the current financial year. Looking ahead, and the demand indicators support this, we do see good reasons to expect an accelerated sales recovery in the second half of the year, assuming the crisis continues to subside. We continue to see a good level of reservations, which leaves room for catch-up effects with a further normalization of the conversion rate from reservations to sales. We expect tailwind from additional supply we are bringing to the market from new sales starts. As mentioned in the past, all of these projects are tailored to the attractive tax incentive schemes for private investors. There is generally also a strong seasonal pattern for our retail sales with a strong Q4. We expect such a pattern also for the current financial year. We continue to see quite encouraging momentum in our institutional business. We are currently at an advanced stage for several transactions with a total volume of around EUR 150 million, and we are in concrete discussions for a number of additional deals. The current demand indicators point to full year sales volume in this customer segment that will exceed our forecast at the beginning of the year. We are confident that this will largely compensate for somewhat softer demand in the retail business. In our view, the positive signs of demand that we are seeing are attributable less to a general recovery in the transaction market and more to our specific product offering. It includes a high share of subsidized apartments, approximately 50%. Due to attractive incentive schemes for rent-controlled apartments in many federal states, this investment product is less affected by the volatility in interest rates. With our new innovative product combining state-of-the-art design with low construction costs, we are ideally positioned for this business. We have also put a strong focus on this product in our acquisition efforts as well as on projects with a shorter duration. This is paying off. On Slide 5 and 6, we provide an overview of the key market indicators relevant to our business. Despite heightened macro uncertainty and the recent rise in long-term interest rates, prices for new builds in Germany's top 7 cities are stable to moderately increasing, underscoring the strong resilience of this asset class. The persistent shortage of residential space in the metropolitan areas, combined with sustained healthy rental growth remains the key driver of positive underlying market dynamics. This is especially true for high-quality, energy-efficient new builds. The price premium for energy-efficient buildings continues to rise and the renewed spike in energy costs is likely to further reinforce this trend. The chart below shows rental growth in top cities based on data from Bulwiengesa. While growth has moderated from elevated levels, it remains on a very robust long-term upward trajectory. Rents have continued to rise and the reacceleration of inflationary trends should provide further support. [Technical Difficulty] price inflation over time. The latest data from the Federal Statistic Office point to an accelerating growth trend in construction costs since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, which is largely attributable to the rise in oil-based or generally energy-related building materials. Nevertheless, we haven't felt any tangible impact so far. With our market position, we are in something of a sweet spot, with the still strong bargaining power vis-a-vis medium-sized construction companies. So far this year, we have seen only very slight increases in construction costs, which have even remained below our own cost assumptions. This is also reflected in our margin. Our suppliers are consequently absorbing the cost pressure in the margins, and this situation is unlikely to last indefinitely. We anticipate slightly higher construction price inflation next year. Turning to Slide 7. Our gross development value remained broadly stable at EUR 7.1 billion year-to-date, excluding our share in joint ventures, which have increased quite considerably with a future proportionate share of more than EUR 1 billion. We have acquired projects with GDV of almost EUR 700 million year-to-date, of which a larger share is expected to be allocated to our JV business. Looking at our fully consolidated project portfolio, the volume of projects under construction has increased from some EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 2.9 billion year-to-date due to rising construction starts. Nevertheless, we have maintained a low operational risk profile with 87% of the units under construction already sold. The presold volume of EUR 2.5 billion provides high visibility for future revenues and cash flows. Of this, revenue not yet recognized amounts to more than EUR 400 million. We continue to create value through our business model by securing building rights for our land bank over time. Over the past 12 months, we have made further progress on approvals, increasing our zoned land bank from EUR 1.7 billion to around EUR 2 billion. This enhances our flexibility and allows us to bring additional products to the market as soon as the market reopens more broadly, including the institutional segment. As mentioned, we remain active on the acquisition side after having acquired projects with a total GDV of around EUR 1.9 billion since the beginning of 2025. We are well on track to reach our acquisition target of more than EUR 2 billion. We have an extensive pipeline, and you can expect more acquisitions in the coming months. We still see a very attractive window of opportunity to buy high-quality assets in key metropolitan areas given increased supply and a very limited competition. The current macro environment further supports this dynamic. We continue to prioritize shorter duration projects, which should further strengthen our growth profile over the next 2 to 3 years. And as mentioned, we are also looking at opportunities in the subsidized and more broadly affordable housing segment. With that, I would now like to hand over to David, for the financial section of the presentation.

Thank you, Kruno. Let me now walk you through our H1 2026 results in a bit more detail, starting with our adjusted results of operations on Slide 9. As mentioned by Kruno, in H1, our adjusted revenues were still below the prior year level. Looking ahead, we expect a significantly stronger revenue contribution from new sales in the second half of the year, supported by the typical sales seasonality. In addition, we still have construction work to catch up on following the cold winter. We continued to deliver a very strong gross margin of 27.9%, once again reflecting our industry-leading profitability. Overall, construction costs came in slightly below our expectations despite the rising costs for energy-related building materials. As pointed out, this is mainly attributable to our strong market position and also to our prudent cost assumptions. At least in the short-term, the cost increases are borne by the suppliers. While the H1 results cannot be extrapolated, we feel very comfortable with our margin target of more than 24%. The bulk of this year's construction work has already been locked in. Our platform costs were somewhat higher than last year. This was partially driven by nonrecurring items. Despite general cost inflation, we do not expect a significant increase in platform costs for the full year 2026. Further down in the P&L, there was a stronger rise in net interest expenses, which was also fully in line with our expectations. The main factor was the scheduled release of capitalized interest due to increasing construction starts. Additionally, a minor effect comes from slightly rising net debt. The tax rate was also slightly higher and broadly in line with our full year budget, reflecting lower expected profit contributions from joint ventures. The still very low bottom line result of EUR 1.3 million in H1 has only limited relevance for the full year. It is distorted by the low top line level. The development in the previous year is not a good indicator for this year due to significant differences in the time-related distribution of revenues. Both operating and financial leverage will work in our favor, driven by the planned sharp rise in revenues in the second half of the year, partially from institutional deals, as mentioned by Kruno. Accordingly, we expect a very sharp rise in profits in the remainder of the year. Moving on to Slide 10. Our balance sheet remains very strong, which is increasingly paying off as we have started to deploy capital for accelerated future growth. Our still low loan-to-cost ratio of 16.9% and our net debt-to-EBITDA of 4.2x at the trough of the earnings cycle continue to underscore our very solid financial position. As we have flagged in our last calls, higher investment activity will lead to a temporary increase in leverage ratios until cash conversion starts to kick in. However, you can rest assured that the strong balance sheet will remain a cornerstone of our business. Turning to the next slide. Over the past few years, we have repeatedly demonstrated the strong cash generation capability of our business model. Although we have now entered a new growth and investment phase, we have still generated substantial positive operating cash flow of more than EUR 40 million from presold projects in H1. Since Q1 2025, we have acquired land plots for projects with a gross development value of approximately EUR 1.9 billion to-date. We expect total acquisitions with a GDV of at least EUR 2 billion by the end of 2026, corresponding to cumulative acquisition costs of around EUR 300 million for 2025 and 2026. These investments will be financed partially on our own balance sheet and partially together with project partners. In addition to land investments, cash requirements will temporarily increase for projects that have entered the construction phase. This reflects the natural cash flow profile of retail projects, where working capital investments are required early on with cash flows turning positive as construction and sales progress. Building on the strong cash generation over recent years, our liquidity position at the end of the quarter amounted to nearly EUR 260 million, which is largely available to fund growth investments and the planned ramp-up in construction activity. In addition, we have undrawn credit facilities of more than EUR 130 million, providing further financial flexibility. Accordingly, the financing of our planned growth investments is fully secured. Chart 12 provides you with an overview of the current financing structure of our corporate debt. We just refinanced the promissory note ahead of schedule in June. In this process, we were able to increase the loan amount from EUR 20 million to EUR 45 million, in collaboration with our financing partners, whilst reducing borrowing costs. The note has a 3-year term and will be repaid in 2029. This once again confirms the confidence of our financing partners, which they have in us in a challenging market environment. Turning to our outlook on Chart 13. Based on our business performance to-date and the current demand indicators, we can confirm the lower end of our forecast ranges for 2026. Let me give you some more insight. We expect the sales volume of at least EUR 650 million. Unlike the situation at the beginning of the year, we now expect a change in the sales mix. While we expect a somewhat lower growth in our retail business, we expect this to be largely offset by higher institutional sales. We have institutional deals with a volume of EUR 150 million in very advanced stages and a number of further transactions in promising discussions. However, given the nature of the business, the lion's share of sales will only again be signed in the fourth quarter. In line with the expected sales performance, we now expect both adjusted revenues and adjusted earnings after tax to come in towards the lower end of the respective guidance range of EUR 550 million to EUR 600 million, and EUR 35 million to EUR 40 million. Against the backdrop of our margin performance year-to-date, we feel very comfortable with our margin target of more than 24%. Let me remind you that we again intend to pay a minimum dividend of at least EUR 0.43 for the financial year. I would also like to reiterate that our guidance is based on the assumption that macroeconomic conditions do not deteriorate materially and that the current geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further or persist in a way that would further weigh on private customer and/or institutional investor confidence. With this, I would like to conclude the presentation and hand over to the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Thomas Rothaeusler from Deutsche Bank.

A couple of questions. First one is -- I mean, you expect a stronger sales mix towards the institutional business. Just wondering if you could explain how flexible you are in adjusting the product mix? And does this come also with special costs? And what is your expectation regarding sales volumes for the retail and institutional business for this year?

Thomas, so as mentioned, we have increased substantially the affordable and subsidized segment. So currently, we are able or we have in the sales process roughly EUR 450 million of sales volume, which is dedicated to subsidized housing. And this is a very attractive financial and cash on cash yield scheme for investors. And we believe that a significant portion of our, let's say, year-end business dedicated to institutional sales will be subsidized housing. From a cost perspective, there is -- from the very start, we -- our strategy was to increase affordable housing activities. And this, from our perspective, pays now really off. Regards to the split, initially, we have planned for this year a bigger portion of B2C business through the conflict in Iran, we see some kind of dilution here. So we believe that going forward, the institutional business should lead us to roughly 50% of sales volume, which is an increase in comparison to what we have guided initially, but which is clearly, I would say, supported by the mix of product we have purchased in the last 24 months, which is short-term oriented and including a significant portion of subsidized house.

Is it possible -- could you provide more color on the subsidized product? This is something like which exists already since quite a while, I think, in certain federal states. And yes, it would be helpful to get a bit more color as it's a key assumption for your recovery for the second half.

When you look at -- so when you look at the last -- from crisis start 2022, we always said that the subsidized housing was a very stable source of sales activities due to the fact that there is no impact by rise of interest rates because you have to put in your equity ratio, it's usually roughly 15%. And then there are different subsidy schemes dependent on the federal state and the cities, which usually have two components. One is you get for the investment, you get a subsidized loan. And dependent on the federal state, for example, in Baden-Wurttemberg, where we have a number of projects, there's a very significant additional onetime payoff subsidy, which is not -- which has not to be paid back. And this leads then to cash-on-cash yields of investors, which are significantly above the 4%, which is usually required. We are seeing in markets cash on cash yields, which are 5% plus. And this brings you to the situation in the one or the other project that the price for subsidized housing is higher than the price for free financed housing. So this is not everywhere the case, and I can't give you now exactly, let's say, the definition of it because there are plenty of variations of the subsidy scheme. And in addition, what is also important, you get an additional -- for the QNG-40 or KfW40 standard, you get additionally also subsidized loans here additionally for the social housing. So overall, it's a very attractive scheme. But it depends from city to city, from state to state. And this is already reflected if we acquire a project, of course, we know exactly what are the parameters of the scheme, and we are pricing those parameters into the calculation.

Okay. Got it. The last question is on the retail business. I mean, you have planned quite some sales starts for this year. Just wondering if we should expect you to reduce these given the more sluggish demand here?

So you have seen the increase of sales volume in the first half year. We are doing much better, 26% plus. And we still have this macro uncertainty. So what we see on the ground is that the product, this double depreciation scheme is clearly a positive driver, and it will stay a positive driver. What has changed through the Iran crisis is the banks need longer. The banks are asking for, let's say, higher interest rates for higher levered projects. So let's say, the difference between 100% financing before the crisis and today is like 1% interest rate. So it's really, let's say, a big step-up. But on the other hand, the depreciation scheme itself nevertheless stays extremely attractive. So we believe that we will see a significant let's say, a step-up of B2C sales this year, but clearly not at the level we initially have planned, and this is due to the situation in Iran.

We have now a question from the line of Philipp Kaiser from Warburg Research.

Congrats to the outstanding gross margin. Just a couple of follow-ups, starting with the revenue side. So reaching the lower end, EUR 550 million requires roughly EUR 360 million in the second half of this year versus roughly EUR 270 million last year, so more than 30% up year-on-year in the period you described as still affected by demand. And how much of the EUR 360 million are already contractually secured through construction progress on sold units to get an idea of how much of it is linked to new contracts?

So the share of revenues from already sold units is roughly EUR 330 million. And the remaining volume is, of course, has to be built up by new sales. But if you take in account the lower number of the range, you come out with a lower number of revenues.

Perfect. Very helpful. And then continuing on the guidance with regards to sales volume, I mean, reaching the lower end also requires a huge portion secured for H2. Q4 last year was the strongest quarter ever. And as far as I remember correctly, you have EUR 270 million. And does the lower end assume even a better last quarter than last year? And what would happen to the revenue recognition if we see the majority of those contracts maybe signed mid-December rather than October? Any implications?

I think this is reflected in the answer that you got from Kruno, your last part of the answer. But yes, we do expect the last quarter to be the strongest quarter and stronger than last year in terms of sales. As usual, the institutional sales are finalized and completed very late in the year. And therefore, this will be the same case this year again.

Perfect. Makes sense. And with regards to institutional sales, in Q1, you pointed to roughly EUR 80 million of institutional deals in advanced negotiation. Now no one is closed in the first half. And is kind of the macro environment you already described by the beginning of the presentation, the only reason for no signings in the meantime or any other reasons I miss?

Well, I think the institutional business has always been more second half oriented. And this is also due to our, let's say, project portfolio, we have started the sales activities in the first quarter. We have signed LOIs for EUR 150 million of volume. And these projects will be signed, let's say, hopefully, last weeks of third quarter. But usually, our, let's say, experience is that they are fourth quarter oriented. And looking at the demand itself, I would say that our, let's say, strategy to increase the affordable housing segment is clearly, from our perspective, the right answer to the current market environment because we see that the investors, if you get to the cash-on-cash yields, resi in Germany in the metropolitan areas is the key, let's say, the #1 pick when you look at real estate investors still. And if you look at the subsidized housing, that was attractive through the crisis. And we believe that our strategy to focus on institutional business more in the affordable housing segment is the right answer. And adding to this, the double depreciation scheme, which is for the B2C business still in place. And we also believe that the owner-occupier business will stay the smallest element in our, let's say, in our sales activity. So focusing affordable housing for institutional buyers and the more I'd say, mid- to high-price segment is more oriented to buy-to-let investors.

Perfect. Crystal clear. And my last one is on the booked risk provision. So you booked roughly EUR 4 million for a tendering project into project costs and also other current provisions rose slightly to, I think, EUR 45 million or EUR 44 million on financial risk provisions for individual projects. Could you shed some light on the risk provisions to get a better understanding of the...