International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (IAG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for IAG's half year results. I'm here today with Steve Gunning, our CFO; and the CEOs of our operating companies. We will shortly talk you through our performance for the second quarter. But before Steve and I take you through the details, I thought that it will be useful to provide some context and set out how we have approached the past 6 months to ready the business in the short term and also to be positioned for the future. So I'm not going to tell you that the environment has been challenging. You know that very well. We have been faced with constantly changing restrictions in different parts of the world with only some easing from the beginning of July. And this has led to exceptional loss of EUR 1 billion for the quarter. On a positive note, we welcomed the recent announcement that fully vaccinated travelers from a number of countries in the EU and the U.S., will no longer have to quarantine upon arrival in the U.K. We see this as an important first step in fully reopening the transatlantic travel corridor. But despite the loss, our liquidity remains strong at EUR 10.8 billion on a pro forma basis, including last week's EETC for BA. Our operating cash flow in Q2 has significantly improved over previous quarters as a result of better EBITDA and strong forward bookings. It is proof of what we already know. People do want to fly. There is a widespread pent-up demand, which is evident when restrictions are lifted. For example, within a couple of hours, British Airways saw bookings from the U.S. raising 95% compared to the previous week following the U.K. government's announcement. Also, U.S. point of sale saw an increase when EU countries, such as Spain, opened up travel to those who are fully vaccinated. Visiting families and friends and leisure travel, both short haul and long-haul have shown the strongest evidence of pent-up demand. So as a management team, we have devoted significant resources to ensuring our operational readiness so that when demand returns, we are able to capitalize. And I am pleased that all of our people across the group have risen to that challenge. Our role is to work on both the short-term impact of the crisis, but building resilience and boosting liquidity while accelerating our plans to design our future for the longer term. We recognize that the industry will be different and flexibility is key in the new normal. We are preparing the business so that we can emerge stronger and more competitive in our structural chain industry. All our airlines continue to take significant actions to preserve their strength, so they are well placed for recovery. The requirement for each of them has been slightly different during this period. Aer Lingus has been the most challenged as a result of the tougher restrictions in Ireland, which I'm glad were lifted on 19th of July. After its initial restructure in last year, Aer Lingus has announced further restructuring measures. The airline has had constructive discussions with its pilot representatives. The agreements that were put to pilot in a ballot who approve them. The airline will also open a new base in Manchester in September to serve U.S. and Caribbean destinations. Last year, British Airways worked closely with its unions to reach new agreements on how their people work. We are grateful to them for their engagement, which is enabling BA to improve productivity, reduce its cost base and increase the proportion of variable costs. This means that when capacity is back to 2019 levels, employee unit cost could be as much as 10% lower than in 2019. This gives us the flexibility to respond quickly to customer demand in a fast-moving environment and the ability to make the most of the recovery. The airline have been quickly repositioning its network to capture more connecting traffic between North America and the EU and beyond, such as Africa, where passenger flows are stronger. As you will see, domestic demand in Spain is already near pre-COVID levels, including some increases in corporate travels from our SME customers. Both Iberia and Vueling were the best group performers in Q2, reflecting a stronger Latin American domestic market driven by fewer travel resections. Both have also implemented various cost reduction measures. As a result, Iberia's MRO and handling activities were close to breakeven, while Iberia Express made an operating profit in Q2. Something from my point of view, extraordinary. Vueling has seen positive cash -- operating cash flow as a result of more capacity and a higher load factor than the rest of the group, and it's good cost control during the quarter. IAG Cargo had a record quarter in terms of revenue, which continued to enable and support a more extensive long-haul passenger network. And finally, IAG Loyalty has been profitable and cash generative throughout the pandemic. Nonairline partners spending has been buoyant, and we have improved our customer proposition in terms of Avios redemption with both our airlines and new partners. More broadly, we have been accelerating the digitalization of our business. Our yield ahead of the game in developing user-friendly digital solutions to provide tools and reassurance our passengers need to travel with confidence despite complex travel restrictions currently. Moreover, we continue to lead the industry's effort to make flying sustainable. British Airways, EETC to fund 7 aircraft that will be delivered this year is linked to the airline sustainability target as we remain resolute in our climate commitments. As you know, IAG has a unique business model, which has been incredibly successful in the last 10 years. And it is why we came into this crisis with such a strategic and financial strength. And now we are preparing ourselves to connect people, businesses and countries better than ever. We do so with confidence. We expect to fly 45% of 2019 capacity in Q3, which would be double the level of capacity in the second quarter. We are operationally ready to fly as much as 75% of 2019 capacity in Q4. So I am optimistic that we can succeed whatever shape the recovery takes. Finally, from me for now, a brief comment on Europa, Iberia submitted its Phase 1 proposal to the European Commission at the end of May. And at the end of June, the commission decided to investigate further and went to Phase 2. So now let us look at the details of IAG's first half results with Steve.

Thanks, Luis. Good morning, everybody. I'll take you through the key points in relation to the Q2 results. So turning to Slide 8. This slide shows some of the key KPIs for the period. And if we look at the top left, relative to 2019, we operated slightly more capacity in Q2 than Q1. In addition, the planes were 6% fuller. However, both long load factor and capacity were well below the quarter 2, 2019 levels. This reflects the ongoing government restrictions, particularly in the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland. Bear in mind that the nonessential travel bans were only relaxed in the U.K. on May 17 and in the Republic of Ireland on July 19. If we look at the top right, quarter 2 operating losses were EUR 1.045 billion in Q2, which is EUR 90 million better than Q1. Not surprising that the Q2 performance is broadly in line with previous quarters, given the capacity remains constrained by the government restrictions. As we've discussed in previous quarters, the financial performance is not homogeneous amongst the IAG Airlines, and we will touch more on this in subsequent slides. Moving on to debt on the bottom left of the slide, net debt has risen by EUR 2.3 billion in the quarter to EUR 12.1 billion in the first half. Gross debt has increased by EUR 4.1 billion driven by our numerous liquidity actions, including an IAG unsecured bond and IAG convertible bonds and BA's U.K. export finance loan. You can see on the bottom right that these actions plus the sustainability linked EETC, which we completed in July have seen our pro forma liquidity reach EUR 10.8 billion, which represents 42% of 2019 revenues. Turning to Slide 9 and looking at the Q2 operating performance versus prior years. Not intended to review every line, but a few significant points here. Passenger revenue was down 88.6% compared to 2019 due to the ongoing travel restrictions limiting the capacity we could operate. Cargo revenue continues to -- cargo continues to perform well. Revenue was up 49% versus 2019. This is a larger increase than we saw in Q1, where it was up 27%. The EUR 419 million revenue reported in Q2 was a record for any quarter for IAG Cargo. It was boosted by 1,371 cargo-only flights in the quarter. It's also worth noting that during the half 1, the air cargo industry volumes have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and this is due to very strong activity in Asia, North America and Europe. In terms of costs, they were down 60% versus 2019 compared with capacity down 78%. This equates to an expected and a healthy cost variability of 77%. Finally, as in Q1, we also saw in Q2 a fuel overhedging gain of EUR 78 million, driven by the increase in fuel prices since the end of Q1. This overhedging gain has been treated as an exceptional item. Turning now to Slide 10. We provided a similar slide to this in Q1. We thought it was worth repeating for Q2 as it shows that the opcos' performance is different given each of the airline's circumstances. What's obvious and true is as restrictions are released, demand and financial performance improves and can improve quickly. This can be seen clearly in the performance of our Spanish airlines compared to British Airways and Aer Lingus. We turn first to Iberia. Iberia's operating loss in Q2 was 25% or EUR 49 million smaller than in Q1. Domestic demand in Spain has progressively recovered following the cancellation of the state of alarm on May 9. Likewise, non-Spanish resident fully vaccinated U.S. citizens have been allowed to enter since May 21, following the relaxation of EU restrictions. Indeed, U.S. point of sale is Iberia's strongest point of sale at this moment in time. Vueling's operating loss in Q2 was 6% smaller than Q1, and -- The operating loss margin improved from minus 226% to minus 66%, still a significant loss, but a big improvement. Vueling has also benefited from relaxation and restrictions in the Spanish domestic market. Indeed, if we consider July and September, Vueling is planning to operate about 75% of 2019 capacity. It's also worth noting that Vueling's operating margin is significantly better than a number of the European -- other European low-cost carriers. Unfortunately, a different story at Aer Lingus and British Airways. Aer Lingus has experienced the most onerous restrictions of all our home markets. However, the ban on nonessential travel was lifted on July 19. This did not obviously help Q2 performance, which was very similar to the Q1 performance. For BA, Q2 performance was slightly improved with both passenger revenue and cargo revenue up approximately 20%. However, time restrictions and volatile restrictions have deterred customers. Cargo performance was strong and continued to outstrip passenger revenue. Our conclusion, there is pent-up demand and when travel restrictions allow us to satisfy demand, our financial performance will improve quickly. Turning on to Slide 11. This slide shows a bridge of our cash position from the end of last year to 30th of June this year. In contrast to the operating profit performance, which saw a negative EBITDA of EUR 1.26 billion and hence the cash outflow, our overall cash balance was increased by EUR 1.7 billion in the 6-month period. I'll limit myself to a few key observations here. Deferred revenue on the balance sheet has increased EUR 906 million. This movement has 2 components. Just under EUR 250 million of this is an FX translation benefit. However, the remainder, approximately EUR 615 million was driven by forward bookings and represents cash inflow. Luis will take you through the positive booking momentum we're seeing at the moment later in his presentation. It was good to see that all 4 operating companies saw an increase in deferred revenue, i.e., sales in advance of carriage during the quarter. Gross CapEx was EUR 300 million in half 1 with 2 new short-haul aircraft contributing to this figure. Proceeds from borrowings benefited from the UKEF loan being drawn, the IAG unsecured bond and the IAG convertible bond. And in terms of repayment of borrowings, it includes the repayment of the CCF (sic) [ CCFF ] commercial paper program of GBP 300 million during the period, too. Turning now to liquidity on Slide 12, which has been a principal focus for us in half 1 due to the uncertainty around travel restrictions. The list of successful transactions on the right-hand side of the slide demonstrates our continued access to capital markets. The 2 most recent transactions were the IAG convertible bond for EUR 825 million, with a very competitive coupon of 1.125%. And secondly, the BA sustainability-linked EETC bond to cover BA's half 2 aircraft deliveries, which has an overall cost of funding below 3%. Both instruments were heavily oversubscribed. Our pro forma total liquidity at the end of June was EUR 10.8 billion, which includes the 3-year RCF, which remains undrawn. While liquidity continues to be higher than before the pandemic in December '19, it was, what, EUR 9.1 billion. It will continue to be a focus until the path to recovery is more certain. Slide 13 provides an update on the group's debt position. Compared to the end of quarter 1, net debt has increased by EUR 543 million. This reflects 2 items. Firstly, a EUR 232 million increase in gross debt, which is due to 3 movements: the convertible bond being drawn, and then the repayment of the CCF (sic) [ CCFF ] commercial paper program, and a reduction in asset-related liabilities through normal scheduled payments. And secondly, cash reduced EUR 311 million in the quarter. Moving on to Slide 14. This shows a year-by-year analysis of when our financial debt is due for repayment. As a reminder, we have excluded finance and operating leases from this chart. Key points I would make here is, first, the chart reflects that we have pushed out to 2026, about EUR 400 million of the ICO back loans that Iberia and Vueling have taken out. Secondly, we have very little debt to pay for the rest of the year, having already repaid the CCFF. And thirdly, there is very relatively little variability in the amounts due each year with the exception of 2026 when the UKEF loan falls due for payment. And moving on to my final slide, looking at the cash operating costs and to give some guidance for Q3. Firstly, a reminder on definitions as we appreciate airlines are defining cash burn in many different ways. We use gross operating cash costs. We think it's helpful in 2 ways. Firstly, it's not just P&L costs, but all operating cash costs. For example, includes fuel overhedging payments. And secondly, we exclude revenues and forward bookings due to the significant uncertainty related to the travel restrictions. Please note the detailed definition is provided in the footnote at the base of the slide. Looking at quarter 2, we guided previously that we would incur cash operating cost of EUR 200 million per week. The actual outcome for quarter 2 was EUR 190 million. For Q3, we are guiding to EUR 270 million per week, which is an increase of about 40%. But this compares to a capacity increase of 115% and i.e., more than doubling ASKs to be flown in Q3 compared to Q2. With that, I'll now hand back to Luis.

Thanks, Steve. In my introductory remarks, I said that all of our operating companies have been taking significant actions to address the individual challenges that they have been facing. And the next 3 slides show more details of these actions. I will just focus on a few examples. All of the opco CEOs, as I said at the beginning, are on the call. So you are free to ask them questions on specific initiatives in the Q&A session. First of all, Aer Lingus. At the end of March, we announced Aer Lingus plan to start up a new base in Manchester with routes to New York, Orlando, Boston and Barbados. As a result of continued travel restrictions between the U.K. and U.S., the New York and Orlando routes will now start at the end of September rather than July. Aer Lingus has received a U.K. AOC and plans are being put in place to co-sell with BA. Ireland, as you know, has the strictest travel restrictions in Europe. This has necessitated further restructuring, such as the announcement closure of its cabin crew base at channel and negotiations with various labor groups. I am pleased that Aer Lingus reached agreement on various measures with its pilots after a ballot yesterday. Next, British Airways. Over the course of this year, it has repositioned its network away from serving point-to-point demand to more connecting demand. Point-to-point demand has been severely affected by U.K. government restrictions on travel. At the beginning of this year, some of the strongest point-to-point markets for BA were VFR passengers between the U.K. and India, Pakistan and West Africa. West Africa remains largely amber list, but both India and Pakistan were placed on the red list. So BA have to redeploy its network. It has focused on connecting passengers from North America to the rest of Europe when countries like Spain opened up to fully vaccinated tourists without the need for quarantine or testing since early June. Iberia and Vueling have been operating at much higher levels of capacity than Aer Lingus and BA because of fewer travel restrictions and a large domestic market in Spain. In the second quarter, Iberia operated at 44% of 2019 level of capacity and Vueling at 32%. Iberia was the main driver of a better group financial performance in the second quarter with Iberia Express making a profit in the quarter and Iberia's airport handling and maintenance division operating close to breakeven. Vueling repositioned its network in the quarter by emphasizing domestic flying in Peninsula, Spain as well as to the Balearic and the Canary Islands. Vueling now has more domestic capacity than summer 2019. Because of its employee agreement, Vueling has been better able to adapt its employee cost to the capacity. It has also continued various cost reduction actions such as cutting management positions by 25%, making structural changes in its maintenance and hauling agreements as part of a wider restructuring program. Vueling is also focused on initiatives to boost ancillary revenues. We talk about IAG Cargo, had another strong quarter, operating more cargo-only flights in the second quarter than in the first quarter and generating a record revenue. As passenger demand starts to recover, cargo-only flying is likely to reduce as co-sponsor flights with the passenger business are increasing. IAG Loyalty has been profitable and cash generative throughout the pandemic because customers are still spending and earning Avios on nonairline partners. In this, customer spending on U.K. co-branded credit card has been higher in June than in the same month of 2019, despite lower spending on air travel. We have improved our customer proposition by doubling the number of guaranteed Avios reward seats on all BA and Iberia flights and increasing Avios earning opportunities with additional partners. And all of our rising companies have accelerated their digital initiatives to facilitate travel during the pandemic. We are leading the global airline industry with these developments. BA is using the VeriFLY to enable automatic verification of vaccination and testing data and on live passenger location forms in order to minimize manual processing times when checking in at the airport. It's been used by 20,000 passengers each day on BA and American Airlines flights, mainly on North America and Caribbean routes. BA is also trialing a similar app that is called Right to Fly, being used by 5,000 passengers per day. This app was originally developed by Iberia based on Salesforce CRM platform. Vueling uses IATA Travel Pass on 32 routes. IAG is one of the leading development contributors to the IATA Travel Pass. Both BA and Vueling have interactive route maps on their website, which enable customers to find out quarantine, testing and other product requirements and restrictions by destination in order to help travel planning. And BA has also developed apps for ordering and buying on board its European flights and for ordering food and drink in its lounges in order to minimize physical contact with crew and staff. And we continue to see more and more evidence of pent-up leisure and VFR demand when travel restrictions are lifted. We have shown this bookings' chart several times over the last year, this one being at 25th of July. They indicate a significant and sustained increase in forward bookings activity since we last presented this data as of 2nd of May. As you can see, our Spanish domestic bookings intake, which have been the strongest of all route areas have been above 80% of 2019 levels since early June and last week was over 100%. Both international short haul and long haul recently peaked at over 50% in the week ending 30th of June, which was a week when the U.K. announced a number of green list countries in Europe and the Caribbean. We continue to see demand recovery on long-haul routes, just as strongly as on international circle routes. Overall intake have been averaging around 50%, 60% since the end of May. Here, you can see also some more evidence of a strong pent-up demand this time point of sale U.S. All of our airlines have experienced an increasing trend in U.S. point-of-sale demand ever since Spain and several other EU countries announced open borders for fully vaccinated travelers from the U.S. Since 21st of May, the date of Spain's announcement, U.S. bookings for Iberia rose from 50% of 2019 levels to over 70%, a better performance for Iberia at other point-of-sale regions. BA has similarly benefited despite the U.K. being closed to travelers from the U.S., reflecting increasing transfer connection to the rest of Europe and beyond. BA's point of sale U.S. bookings intake recently peaked at 70% of 2019 levels in the last week of June, but sailed off to 50% in the week to 25th of July. However, U.S. intakes almost doubled in the afternoon of the 28th of July compared to the average of the previous week following the announcement that U.S. fully vaccinated travelers can travel to the U.K. without the need to quarantine. There has also been a sharp increase in BA's booking to amber-list countries, including the U.S. when the U.K. government announced on 8th of July, that fully vaccinated U.K. residents returning from amber-list countries would not have to self-isolate from 19th of July. This slide shows the volume of bookings by traffic-light color for BA in the 4 days from 8th to 11th of July, which includes a weekend. On the left hand, the distribution of these bookings by month for the rest of the year. 70% of all BA bookings during this period were to amber-list countries, including the U.S. and mainly for travel in August. But demand is so strong on some leisure routes that BA has increased capacity later this summer to more than 2019 levels. This slide shows BA's absolute available seat kilometers on its 29 most popular short-haul routes between July and October on the left and the capacity of these routes as a proportion of 2019 levels on the right. During July, BA has steadily increased capacity on these routes from 60% of 2019 levels to 100%. From mid-August until the end of September, BA has increased capacity on these routes to as much as 40% more than in 2019, reflecting the fact that we expect the same leisure season this year to extend all the way into October. Overall capacity on these routes will more than double between July and August. Aer Lingus, Iberia and Vueling are also expecting an extended summer holiday season this year. We currently plan to operate 45% of normal 2019 capacity in the current third quarter, which is twice the 22% that we operated in the second quarter. We are not providing capacity guidance for the fourth quarter because of the lack of visibility and much shorter booking curves than normal. But its pent-up demand is very strong. We could operate as much as 75% of 2019 capacity in the fourth quarter as of today. This level of readiness, however, will diminish over time as we approach the start of the quarter. Aer Lingus could operate up to 69% of normal capacity, limited by both aircraft availability and pilot availability. British Airways could also operate up to 73% of normal capacity, driven by the fewer aircraft and crew currently compared to 2019. Long haul is the most constrained, having retired 35 Boeing 747 and granted the 12 380s. Main constraint for BA's aircraft, no pilots or cabin crew. Operational readiness is highest for the Spanish airlines. Iberia could operate as much as 86% of normal capacity in the fourth quarter. The number of aircraft is the main constraint due to fewer aircraft currently that in 2019. Pilots and cabin crew are not an issue for Iberia. Under the ERTE furlough program, most pilots and cabin crew have been retained and all of them are flying. Vueling has the highest operational revenues in the group at 100% of 2019 levels, although only in the seasonally weak fourth quarter. The pilot and cabin crew situations are similar to Iberia. Talking about climate change. In our first quarter presentation in May, we said that we were the first airline group worldwide to extend our net zero commitment by 2050 to the Scope 3 emissions of our suppliers. We also said that we were the first European airline to commit to powering at least 10% of our flights with sustainable aviation fuels by 2030. And we have made further progress on our climate change commitments. First, carbon disclosure project, upgraded our climate rating in June to A-, the only European airline that has been awarded this top rate. We hope to improve from this to a full A rating at some point. Second, BA has raised its first 2 sustainability-linked financing, the GBP 2 billion U.K. Export Finance loan and the first ever sustainability link EETC financing last week. Third, Iberia and Repsol signed an agreement to develop sustainable aviation fuel, develop electric hydrogen power ground vehicles and develop more sustainable buildings and other facilities using artificial intelligence. And finally, British Airways and its partners have been shortlisted for government funding grants for 4 projects in the development of sustainable aviation fuel and carbon capture as listed on the slide, including previously announced projects with Pelosi and LanzaJet. As I have already mentioned, we plan to fly 45% of normal capacity at the group level in the third quarter and could fly as much as 75% in the fourth quarter should demand recover strongly. In the third quarter, we would expect the Spanish airlines to fly a much higher than average level of capacity at around 70%. Since our last presentation in early May, there have been some positive relaxation of travel restrictions by our home country governments, but there is still more that we consider they can do. The U.K. and Ireland governments have removed their legal bans on nonessential air travel. The EU is open for fully vaccinated travelers from the U.S. and some other countries and the U.K. announced on Wednesday that it is open to EU and U.S. fully vaccinated travelers. The government have also made good progress with digital health passes, such as the EU Digital COVID Certificate. But further government actions are needed in order to take advantage of rising vaccination rates and lower infection rates in some countries. We need more travel corridors between lower risk countries where vaccination has been successful, in particular, between the U.K. and EU, and the U.S. The U.S. needs to lift its ban on travelers from Europe, just as the EU and U.K. have done for fully vaccinated U.S. travelers. We also need more consistency and harmonization of travel restrictions and consistent criteria in determining the traffic light color of countries and regions. And we need Spain and the U.K. to extend their parallel schemes beyond September. So finally, the conclusions. The second quarter was much better than previous quarters with operating cash flow significantly less negative due to strong forward bookings. Liquidity is also strong after better operating cash flow and several debt-raising initiatives this year. As a management team, we have devoted significant resources to ensuring that when demand returns, we are ready and able to capitalize. We have been accelerating the digitalization of our business. We know that people do want to fly. There is wider spread pent-up demand where restrictions are lifted. It is clear that the pandemic is far from behind us, but the science has demonstrated that it's possible to open up our scale safely -- our sky, sorry, safely. We recognize that the industry will be different, and we will need to do things differently. We are preparing the business so that we can emerge stronger and more competitive in a structurally changed industry. And all the while, as we take this business decisions, we are taking into account our environmental commitments. We continue to lead the industry in the industry's efforts to make flying sustainable so that we can create value for all our stakeholders long into the future. And now we are ready for your Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

Can you remind me how many new aircraft you have taken delivery of so far in 2021 and your expectations for the remainder of 2022? And I'm just trying to figure out how the fleet and CapEx gets built back up here? And then for my second question, I wonder if you could provide a little bit more color on your -- where you're seeing domestic same business demand recovery? Really wondering if there is a read-through from what you're seeing there into other markets and if this changes your view on how you're seeing eventual business demand recovery once the various jurisdictions open up?

You can start with the fleet, if you want.

In terms of the fleet, we've received 5 new aircraft in the first half of the year. We anticipate receiving a further 10 in the second half of the year. Our CapEx guidance is EUR 1.7 billion. That's not changed. Clearly, it's back-weighted to the second half of the year. And clearly, that's not just fleet CapEx, but fleet-related CapEx and nonfleet CapEx as well.

Sorry, just following up on that, Steve, just any early thoughts on 2022?

We haven't guided to 2022. What we have said is that the number of aircraft deliveries won't be higher than 2020, where I think we took about new 29 new aircraft further. But we'll look to give guidance for next year's CapEx, either later in the year or the full year results.

Okay. Savi, your second question about business travel. Right now, we are still in very reduced levels, 5%, 10% of 2019 levels. The main sector traveling is government. But it's true that, for example, in Spain, we see that the Spanish domestic routes are working better. Business travel is running at around 30%, 3-0, of 2019 levels on these routes, mainly SMEs are traveling more than large corporate. So we consider that when we don't have restrictions, business traffic is going to come back, and we have that example in the same.

Your next question comes from Jarrod Castle from UBS.

Just a question around, firstly, shareholders' equity has fallen below EUR 1 billion. When you're thinking about the balance sheet, does that have any impact in your thinking in terms of equity to net debt? Or is it really net debt to EBITDA that you focused on going forward? And then secondly, just coming back to CapEx, you've transferred, I think, your final A350 orders from Aer Lingus to other airlines? Is that to British Airways and Iberia? So what's happened with those A350s?

Okay. In regards to the equity, the group level, would you say it's gone below $1 billion. Interestingly enough, we got the question, but the Q1 end as to whether it would go negative this half year. And actually, it's actually stayed positive during the course of it, primarily due to the pensions and also the retranslation of the financial instruments. So it's just below EUR 1 billion. That's not a problem for us at a group level. The key item in terms of equity is what it does for the top company at an ICAG level, and that's still very positive as well. So that's not an issue for us. With regards to the A350 point, we basically wanted to have additional flexibility with those A350 orders. So we have haven't come out of those A350 orders, but we're holding them centrally now, and we'll determine where we want to put those aircraft in the future.

Your next question comes from James Hollins from BNP.

A couple from me, please. The first one on Air Europa. I suspect you're not going to tell me much. But perhaps a bit more detail on -- not timing, et cetera, but I think I read somewhere you decided not to make any early concessions to get that through. Just wondering, a, if that's true; b, why not; c, what happens next? And the second one is, unless I am going senile, you still operate an airline called LEVEL. I've not seen any mention of it. I was wondering if that's still operational, whether it's doing okay, which I assume it might be given Spanish long haul is looking okay. Just some update on that would be great.

Okay. About your first question, about Air Europa, you know that we made a formal application for Phase 1 on 25th of May. And on 29th of June, the Commission decided to open I mean the Phase 2 investigation. On 20th of July, we have extended, or they have extended the investigation period by 20 days to the 3rd of December. So we continue seeing these deals as strategic for the group. We consider that this is key for Spain recovery after this crisis and also to position Madrid as a hub that can compete with the strongest ones in Europe. Also to develop our 360-degrees hub and supply to, for example, to Asia. But because of the context of that we currently have, the operation is difficult. And we are analyzing the -- what's going to be the output. We always take decisions based on rational analysis, and that's what we are going to do with this operation as soon as we have all the conditions on the table. And the second one, sorry, LEVEL. LEVEL, you know that the only operation we are maintaining right now is 11 long hauls from Barcelona. We think that as soon as the -- we don't have restrictions, we have an opportunity there. IAG has invested always in Barcelona Airport. Vueling is also an opportunity to fit the long-haul low cost that we have there. We are sure that we have room for around 10 aircraft from Barcelona as soon as we can recover the demand level in the meantime, is doing also some cargo charters that are helping to the results of the company.

Your next question comes from Muneeba Kayani from Bank of America.

The first question kind of near term in your guidance of 45% of capacity for 3Q, can you talk a little bit about how you're seeing that sequentially improve through July, August, September? And how are you thinking about load and pricing for the quarter? And kind of at what load would you possibly look to add or reduce capacity? And then secondly, more longer term, can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the capital structure in the medium term, say, what are your leverage targets in '23, '24?

Okay. So about your first question, we are raising the capacity during July, August and September, and the average that we are considering is 45%. But for example, the plan is to increase in the case of BA, for example, to around 150 movements per day in early July to over 450 movements per day by late August. It's also important what we said before that U.K. and Ireland have been 2 of the most restricted markets in Europe. But for example, in Spain, we are expecting that the Spanish airlines can fly around 70% of capacity of -- compared with 2019 during this quarter. So the good thing is that we have the flexibility to increase the production. And we have said that in the quarter, we can reach up to 75% of the capacity that we were operating in 2019.

In terms of the capital structure, longer term, as you know, pre-pandemic, we were investment grade. And said in our Capital Markets Day 2019 that we'd like to keep net debt to EBITDA below 1.8, which was a proxy for investment grade. Clearly, we'd like to get back to investment grade, but we need to do that at a sensible pace. One of the things we can't predict at the moment is the speed or intensity of the recovery and hence, how quickly we can naturally delever the business. So it is our view ultimately to get back to investment grade, how quickly that needs to happen or will happen is yet to be seen to be frank. So it's something we continue to keep under review. Bear in mind, there's lots of very good airlines that aren't investment grade because most of the financing is asset backed. And in fact, IAG didn't become investment grade until 2019 and BA didn't until 2016. So it's certainly something we're keeping under review, and we have to match the balancing act between the credit rating. And also, as we said in our prospectus last year, we are keen to get back to returning cash to shareholders.

Your next question comes from Daniel Roeska from Bernstein.

Could I get your thoughts on the EU Fit for 55 proposals and probably most importantly, the discussion around fuel taxes in addition to sustainable aviation fuels and the EU ETS? And maybe also how your current view is how this framework would differ from whatever you're encountering in the U.K. And then secondly, you already talked about kind of bits and pieces for Aer Lingus, you commented on the 350, but it seems that there is kind of a new strategy or at least a new network strategy for Aer Lingus. Could you expand on that a little bit?

Okay. About your first question about the Fit for 55 policy package, I think that the main concern that we have is with the Fit for 55 package, it's the proposal to remove the tax extension on jet fuel for intra-European flights, because we consider that, as you know, that taxes do not reduce carbon emissions. And we consider that the proposal will lead to EU airlines paying multiple times for the carbon emission. So also the proposal has an extension for cargo carriers, and I think that will not help to have -- it will create a competitive distortion. We always say that taxes will reduce the ability that we have to invest in low-carbon technology. So I think there are some assets that we are even beyond what the package is considering. So for example, in the staff mandate, we believe that mandate should start for intra-European flights at the same time, supporting the global ambition that we have through ICAO for 10% staff by 2030. And we also think that CORSIA must be adopted also for EU carriers for intra-European flights. But you know that all this is in a consultation phase and we hope we are going to have the opportunity to explain our point of view to the authorities. About the second question, maybe, Lynne, you can?

Yes. Taking the Aer Lingus network strategy. Obviously, in the short term, our network strategy is centered on where we can fly and generate cash. If I take a slightly longer view, I wouldn't describe that as being a change in our network strategy. We are looking to ensure that our short-haul operations feed the Dublin hub effectively. But on the long-haul side, whilst jets, the 350s have come out of the Aer Lingus fleet plan, we still have 330s there to operate primarily North Atlantic long haul. And the 321 narrow bodies, we believe, give us new opportunities to connect other points in North America. We have also got the Manchester AOC that Luis referenced earlier, and we think that's a good opportunity to connect up using Aer Lingus brand and combination of the 330s and the 321s to test out some new markets for Aer Lingus.

And if I could follow up on that last comment, are we to expect a little bit more point-to-point flying into North Atlantic from Aer Lingus also beyond Ireland then, is it just one market you're testing? Or is this kind of something you'd be willing to also spread across Europe if it proves successful?

Our focus does remain Dublin still with the potential of long haul flying out of Shannon next year still being a question for. But then, if Manchester is successful, and there's no reason why we couldn't consider expanding that into other markets, but it's one step at a time.

And your next question comes from Stephen Furlong from Davy.

Just to what's left, I just want to ask just on the pension, Steve, first. Is there any -- going to be an actuarial review? I know you deferred the monthly contributions until September '21. But are we going to hear an update on that for BA? And let me just ask me Luis back on the Air Europa. I might have got it, but were you expecting it to go to Phase 2, given the Commission made a comment that it decided that IAG and Air Europa has decided not to submit commitments when we first went. So I just read from that just based on the transaction of the plan, the thought process with the EU was always going to go to Phase 2, and we will find out on the September 5.

Stephen, with regards to pensions, the actuarial valuation. So the valuation date will be 31 March of this year. And so it's still very early days for the actuarial valuation and then discussions on whatever the remaining deficit is and what the recovery plan will be. So I think I've done 2 of these in the past and they've taken something between 15 to 18 months to settle. So we're sort of well within that period at the moment. But as soon as we've got a sensible position and update, we'll certainly share it with you.

Okay. About the Air Europa question. We knew from the beginning that this deal was going to be challenging. We always said that we expected to close the deal before the end of the year, and I think we are in the same situation. It's true that the context has changed, the context for the complete industry, not only for this operation, and that's the reason we need to consider everything before taking the final decision.

Your next question comes from Mark Simpson from Goodbody.

Two questions. One, I just wanted to kind of try to reconcile the deferred revenue on ticket sales. You're now standing with a balance of just over EUR 6 billion. It was just over EUR 5 billion at the end of 2020. Conversion rates in the sense of passenger revenues in the following 6 months is anywhere between 117% to 20% in a normalized period. But we obviously saw that conversion rate at only 22% in this first half. So I'm trying to get a better feel potentially from you in a sense of where does the current balance on ticket sales, deferred revenue, how do those fall into Q3, Q4? How much of that is still being rolled over into the next fiscal year? So guidance on that would be extremely helpful. And then just on the capacity forecast for Q4, up to 75%, how much of that is dependent on the U.S. corridor opening? I would have thought those targets are substantially dependent on that occurring. So I wonder if you could just give us a feel for if the U.S. remains reasonably closed, what your adjusted forecast might be?

Okay. I'll start with the second one and maybe Steve, you can continue with the first one. The 75% is the maximum capacity that we consider we can operate. What we are assuming right now in our refund scenario is the U.S. market is going to be open in September. That and the flexibility that we can have to operate up to 75% is going to be enough. So that's the scenario that we are considering and maybe, Steve?

Mark, I'm not sure I got all of the question, but let me make some comments about the deferred revenue. What we said at the full year was the deferred revenue on the passenger side was about EUR 2.4 billion and about 50% of that was in regard to vouchers, et cetera. What we've seen in the first 6 months of this year is some small reduction in the voucher balance, but not a significant unwind. What I'm pleased to see is wherever people are redeeming their vouchers, again a significant top-up, somewhere in the region of 26% to 28% top-up. If I look more generally as to what we think advanced bookings will do in sales in advance of carriage, clearly, we've had some good positive momentum in Q2 of this year. I would like to think that will continue into Q3 as well. But I think the key in your question was in normal times, and the reality is we're not in normal times. So my expectation is we'll continue to see a buildup in deferred revenue in, but we'll have to see how the government restrictions impact customer confidence and hence, the booking levels. Hopefully, that somewhere answered your question.

Yes. Just maybe in terms of a way you have vouchers or visible bookings, could you give us sort of a feel for kind of how much of that relates to next year rather than this year?

No, I don't think I can get into that detail. What we're seeing on bookings at the moment, and particularly current bookings, and I think we might touch on this later, but the surge in bookings we're seeing at the moment tends to be failing near term. So certainly, what we saw with the easing of restrictions for EU and U.S. We saw a big boost in BA's booking profile. That was clearly short term. That was very much focused in the next 2 or 3 months. So that's what we're seeing at the moment.

Your next question comes from Jaime Rowbotham from Deutsche Bank.

So 2 from me. So we've talked quite a bit about Slide 28 and the potential for 4Q capacity. Just thinking about 2022 and assuming that by the 1st of Jan, the U.S. is long since open to EU and U.K. travelers. What sort of capacity do you think is going to be sensible for the group next year versus 2019? Maybe you could provide a range for what it's worth. Ben Smith said earlier that for Air France-KLM, that percentage would be 75% to 79%. And secondly, also with EU Fit for 55 in mind, I recall IAG's map to net zero emissions by 2050 from the full year results. I just wondered, are you considering any further aircraft orders, perhaps less for growth and more to accelerate the improvement in the fuel efficiency of the fleet?

Okay. The first question on the capacity for next year. I think we have the flexibility to improve the 75% that we set for the last quarter. And for example, on short haul, in the case of BA to put an example, we can put 5 aircraft -- short haul aircraft per week. They can be returned to the operation as the demand requires. And as I said at the beginning, we don't have a bottleneck with pilots and coming through. For [indiscernible], we have enough time, even in the case of Aer Lingus and BA, where the furlough scheme is different to have enough resources. We need to take into consideration that we have reduced the size of our fleet because we have reduced the 747. We need to take up utilization of the 380s. And in the case of Iberia, we have stopped their 340s. So we have less capacity than we had at the beginning of this pandemic. But if we have enough demand, we can fly, I would say, 100% of our capacity with enough time.

And Jaime, in regards to would we take out new fleet orders. Potentially, but what I would add is all the way through 2020, we didn't cancel any fleet orders. We deferred some, but we took 29 new aircraft in 2020. We're taking 15 new aircraft this year, and we'll take a significant number of aircraft next year. So one of the reasons we haven't canceled orders, but we've looked to take them as we can is because of our commitment to the environment and trying to improve our carbon efficiency. So maybe we'll take new orders, but the key thing is we haven't actually delayed or derailed our current order book. What we've tried to do is continue with that because we see the imperative.

Your next question comes from Sathish Sivakumar from Citigroup.

I got a couple of questions here. Firstly, on the near term, especially from the U.S. point of sale booking, what have you actually seen there regards to premium and versus the nonpremium segments? What has been the booking trend there? And secondly, on the aircraft, especially the ones that have the leases expiring in the next few years, could you just clarify on the number of aircrafts that are like you have the leases coming up for renewal? And how does it actually vary across the group airlines?

The first question, as we said at the beginning, we see a lot of demand for VFR and leisure traffic point of sale in the U.S. We don't see huge amount of business traffic there, but maybe, Sean, you can elaborate on that?

Yes. I think a couple of things were notable. One is the point-to-point traffic into the U.K. picked up significantly on the back of the announcement. And that was spread across all cabins. If you look at the mix of business, there is premium traffic coming through the VFR and leisure channels, which is actually very similar to the broader trends that we're seeing in terms of intakes. The business channel is obviously lagging, but that is showing signs out of the U.S. point of sale of picking up as well. Both before the announcement and also on the back of the announcement.

So just to follow up there. Just within the VFR or within the leisure segment and what are you actually seeing on the premium cabins versus, say, in 2019 levels?

Yes. We're seeing pretty robust demand of leisure segments for premium. Premium leisure continues to perform well. And as a proportion of the overall bookings, it's holding up similarly to the trends that we would see historically. It's the business segment in the premium cabins is obviously lagging the VFR and leisure trend. With regards to your second question on number of leases expiring, I don't have that number to hand. What I would say is we've done a lot of negotiations with the lessors. We've done 2 big rounds with them over the last 12 months, in the midst of that to get better terms and also to defer some of the payments. What we've tended to find actually is it's been economic and beneficial to actually extend some of the leases because of the deals we've managed to get with the lessors. But if you want, we can come back to you with that number, but we don't have it at hand.

Your next question comes from Carolina Dores from Morgan Stanley.

Just one for me. If you could update your thoughts on hedging policy from both fuel and carbon, and especially carbon given the split of U.K. and the European markets?

So on the fuel hedging policy, we announced a new hedging policy at the end of Q1. The thinking behind it was to reduce the maximum levels of hedging to go out no more than 2 years and to use more call options overall. So if there was a significant downward move, we would participate in that, particularly given the learnings from COVID-19. In terms of carbon, we only go out 2 years with hedging and to a lesser degree. So that's probably the update I would give on both of those items.

Okay. And can you disclose what levels are you hedged for second half of '21 and '22?

We're not giving out all of those details. What I would say is Q3 will be the last quarter where we're significantly overhedged. So we've got significant overhedging position. So the payments we've had to make out on the excess hedge book will largely come to an end in Q3. When we look at our new policy, looking out, the only place where we're having to put in a little bit more in terms of hedges from where we were is in the second half of H2 at the moment. So given the uncertainty of the situation at the moment, we're staying within the new policy at the bottom end of that acceptable range because there's still quite a bit of uncertainty.

Your next question comes from Andrew Lobbenberg from HSBC.

Could you talk to us about your views on the proposals for slot growth for the winter, both from the EU and from the U.K.? And how that would inform what you need to do with your Gatwick slots? And then my second question would be around the outlook and trading on LatAm long haul that we haven't talked about a great deal today, and it's my ignorance, I'm afraid. But if you could explain to us what the outlook is for how close the markets are and what the prospects are for those markets opening up because you spend a lot of time following the musings on the North Atlantic. But I think that's important for you.

So first question about the slot, we have different situations in different places. You know that in Europe, now we have 50-50 route that is very disappointing for us because we consider that we are not able to fly as much as we want, and to put that limit at the end is going to produce that we are going to need to fly almost empty flights in order to preserve the slots that I think is not the best solution in a moment where everybody -- we are trying to combat the climate change and where we are trying to reduce CO2 emissions. I think about Gatwick, Sean, maybe you can...

Yes. I think just on slot, I think the U.K. has taken obviously a more pragmatic approach in adopting the WASB recommendation for -- I think that's giving us the kind of flexibility, I think, which is appropriate for the winter. In terms of Gatwick, we're looking at what our kind of options are for summer '22 at Gatwick, we need to be competitive because the market will be very competitive coming out the other end of the pandemic. And we'd probably be communicating plans in relation to Gatwick dependent on discussions we're having with our stakeholders. But the ability to kind of hold the soft portfolio for winter, I think we have the flexibility to manage that, both with the U.K. policy and the EU policy as it prevails. But I would agree with Luis completely, the EU policy is not very pragmatic in light of the uncertainty and the environmental impact it could have.

And about your second question, LatAm, Javier, you can explain better than me. But LatAm is not like U.S., you have a lot of countries there with different situations. It's true that we have seen before that we are doing very well, I will say there, and that part of the reason of the good results that they have shown today. But Javier, maybe you can elaborate on the situation on there.

Yes, sure. Thank you, Luis. Well, what we are seeing, as you were saying, it's different evolution of the different markets. So -- and we are seeing, for instance, countries like Republican American, we are even flying more than in pre-pandemic. We are seeing other countries like Argentina and Chile, where we have a lot of restrictions. A common denominator, I would say, it's what we have been saying about the different markets. So we see pent-up demand. And we see that when the restrictions are lifted, the traffic flows. To highlight here also the point that you were saying before, in particular, in Latin America, with the ties with Spain and some other European countries using Spain as they have, we are seeing the recovery of -- of course, we have seen the VFR traffic relatively strong, but we are seeing also the recovery of some business traffic in particular, SME. And I would say it is an important market for us. That's to state the obvious, and we are seeing the recovery that is really linked to the opening of the borders and the lifting of the restrictions in those countries. But I said -- we have countries where the recovery is really are strong already and some of the countries that like Argentina and Chile, where we are still suffering the restrictions imposed by the different governments.

Your next question comes from Gerald Khoo from Liberum Capital.

A couple of questions, both related to further schemes. Obviously, these schemes come to an end in the near future of U.K. in particular. I was just wondering what your thoughts are in what you do after those schemes come to then assume they come to that and then as currently scheduled? Do you downsize the relevant airlines? Or do you absorb the cost on the assumption that demand is going to recover going into next year? And just to try to scale the challenge, what sort of benefits from further schemes did you have on operating cash burn in Q2, please?

Okay. So I think that the furlough schemes are helping a lot to protect job during the crisis. We consider that must be extended Ireland, the situation has changed now, and we are going to tap or until the end of the year. But in U.K. and Spain, now the situation is that they will end up at September. We are asking for an extension because as I said, it's a tool that we have to protect jobs. After that, I think the situation is going to be different in the different operators. For example, in the case of BA, we had agreement that we reached last year, they are going to help us true to our advantage for the future, producing around 10% the employee cost, I think is, going to be very important in this environment where we need flexibility, where we need to come back to the profitability levels that we had before. I think the agreement also that Aer Lingus has reached with a pilot is going to help also to try to recover the situation of the airline. And in saying, the furlough scheme, Javier and Marco, they are evaluating what they can do after the AerSpace, that is the name of the furlough scheme is -- and they are exploring several options, like to have another airplane, maybe, Marco, you can expand on that?

Yes. Certainly, the art is the most flexible interruptible tool. So we are encouraging the government to extend that. Would that not be the case, the first alternative would be to find an agreement with our union representatives to have a similar scheme, let's say, expanded in time. And at the same time, look at structural measures to allow to ensure that we have a more efficient cost base permanently after the COVID. Because we do know that the consequences of the COVID are going to be permanent as well.

Just in answer to your question, what we put in the IMR is the half year benefits of the furlough schemes, which is about EUR 344 million. That's very broadly, you can split that roughly in half Q1 versus Q2. I think it's also worth noting for British Airways, given the restructuring that was done and the new contract provisions that were put in, there is flexibility also once the furlough schemes expire, I don't know, Sean, if you wanted to touch on that?

The other thing is the BA heads into the winter this year with 25% less headcount than it did last year. So that gives us kind of a lower operating overhead as we head into the winter. But we have flexibility in our contracts, and we're also exploring other measures such as a paid lead for our time working with our trade union partners as we speak.

And your last question comes from James Goodall from Redburn.

Apologies if this has already been asked, but I got disconnected through the call. So if we think back to your equity raise last year, from memory, it was sized on the North Atlantic reopening in Q4 '20. So I guess with the reopening significantly later than thought, I imagine actually reaching those balance sheet leverage targets under the original timeline of the raise isn't necessarily going to be possible given the cash that's been burned in the interim. So I guess, my question, if there is one in here is, I mean, how are you thinking about those balance sheet targets now? Are you willing to have less stringent leverage targets in the medium term? Was there enough flexibility in those targets in the first phase? Or I guess, are you considering further measures to strengthen the balance sheet.

You're right, it's taken much longer to open up the North Atlantic, and we're still not there yet. So that's absolutely true. When we were doing the equity raise, the way we sized it was in terms of restoring the liquidity to 20% of next 12 months' revenues rather than to hit a specific leverage target. That's the way we sized it. We did touch on this a little bit earlier, which sort of said, we used to have a net debt-to-EBITDA target of 1.8, which was a proxy for investment grade. And our view is we'd like to get back to investment grade, but we need to do this at a balanced pace. And we need to see the intensity and the speed of the recovery and therefore, how quickly we can delever naturally. So there's no hard and fast measure, but we didn't, at the time of the equity raise, set our targets on a particular leverage point in the future. What we said we wanted to do was restore the liquidity of the business and look to return to investment grade and also start to return cash to shareholders as soon as it was operationally viable to do so.

We have no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call back to Mr. Gallego for closing remarks.

Okay. So thank you very much, everybody, for being here today. You can see, I think we are optimistic if we cannot get to open the corridor that we consider they have the conditions to be reopened. And I hope that the next time we talk, we will have the North Atlantic corridor opened, that will be a sign that the work is coming back to a normal situation. And for sure, we will have better results to show you. Thank you very much.