International Personal Finance plc (IPF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 18, 2023

London Stock Exchange GB Financials Consumer Finance special 58 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Gerard Ryan

executive
#1

Welcome to the second of our in-depth insights into the businesses that are contained in IPF Group. And today, I'm delighted to be here in Puebla, Mexico with David Parkinson, who is our Country Manager for Provident. And over the next 45 minutes or so, David is going to talk us through the business that he leads and the opportunities that it has. Now as we do that, when you look at your screen, you have the opportunity to ask us any questions you want. [Operator Instructions] So just type your question in there. And at the end, Alex will come forward and hit us with all of those questions, okay? So let's get started because we have a lot to get through. So David, why don't we start with how does a young lad from Durham end up leading a business of this scale in a place like Mexico?

David Parkinson

executive
#2

Well, well, 37 years ago, Gerard, when I started as a DM in my hometown, I couldn't possibly imagine that I would end up in Mexico being part of this tremendous business. But I think I'm here because I always said yes to opportunities. So I've done all of the field roles in -- and our business did about 5 years now, Head Office and then had the opportunity to go to Czech Republic, then had the opportunity to go to Poland. And then, as we know, I had the opportunity to come here. So yes, an amazing journey for me. And really, I'm here because I've always said yes to opportunities.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#3

Yes, a good strategy. Well, listen, we want to describe everything that we can about your business in Mexico. So why don't you start with an overview of the country in which we operate.

David Parkinson

executive
#4

Okay. Well, I'm not sure how well the view is now Mexico, but I've put a chart on here with a map of Mexico, and you can see it's a huge country. So we operate in the top left in a place called Tijuana, and the bottom right, in a place called Mérida. And what's really interesting, it's around about the same distance from those 2 places as it is from Dublin to Istanbul, and I know 2 places that you're very familiar with. So it's a huge country that literally covers Europe. Now looking at the country itself, it's a Federal Presidential Republic with all of the usual checks and balances you would expect in a mature country. So an independent central bank, an independent judicial system and legislative system. The term of office for the President is 6 years, and we've got next elections in 2024. It's a big country, big population, but a lot of it is concentrated actually in the middle of Mexico and the border cities around the border with the United States. It's also a very big economy, the 15th largest in the world and the second biggest in Latin America behind Brazil. It's a very business-friendly place. I find that personally, and certainly, a lot of the commentators talk about Mexico as being an easy place to do business. Unemployment stable. It's got a good workforce, and there's a large informal element. What does that mean? It means that essentially, people are still economically active in work. However, they're not typically part of the social security system and don't pay taxes. Inflation at the moment is a little bit higher -- well, higher than the target rate, and it's a little bit higher than the headline rate that we see here for basics such as food and electricity and gas. And because of our geographical location, there's significant dependence on the U.S. economy for both imports and exports.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#5

Yes. And I've seen that from myself as I've traveled around Puebla so often. These enormous car plants shipping literally tens of thousands of vehicles every month up across the border into the U.S. So what about the competitive landscape to it?

David Parkinson

executive
#6

Okay. So we have 4 main competitor categories in the market. We've got banks, fintech, NBFIs and credit unions. So as viewers can see in the columns on the left-hand side of the screen, which show the biggest brand going down the columns, we also have the market segmented by what we call socioeconomic type, and this is in the pyramid in the middle of the slide. The permit is based on income levels with the highest income being A and B, and the more modest incomes being B -- being E, sorry, at the bottom of the pyramid. And this permit is produced by the National Statistical Office. The latest standard that we have is from 2019, and it's refreshed every 4 years. So as we can see, the traditional banks and fintechs dominate the top segments, and we have healthy competition in our chosen segments, which viewers can see with the blue line that goes around those 2 segments, and I'll come back to our segments in a moment. But overall, I described the market is something which is developing. Domestic credit penetration at GDP is 38%. There's a comparison in Brazil, it's in the mid-70s and over 100% in countries like the U.K. and the U.S. And despite the huge network of bank branches in Mexico, Mexico has a lowest combined bank and fintech penetration in whole of Latin America at 47%, and a handful of banks dominate penetration of these top 3 segments that we can see. Fintechs are supporting bank account penetration and also mostly target the higher socioeconomic groups. Now Provident target segment, C-, D+ and D, using the socioeconomic data together with our own data, we estimate that this market covers over 50 million -- round about 52 million consumers. And the majority of this segment deal in cash due to the lower-than-average bank penetration in these segments. Now key competitors in our segments include Compartamos that many of our viewers will be familiar with because we talked about them before. And they're mainly of the group lending, which is why 7 or more consumers clubbed together and take collective responsibility for the loan and repayments. And another key competitor is Azteca Bank, who offer all of the traditional bank products such as loans, credit cards, but also point-of-sale financing through electric stores, which are right next to Azteca Bank in our communities. And Coppel, who have a similar model to Azteca bank, but operate with a smaller scale. Now the majority of successful enterprises in our segment, including ourselves, win by being very, very close to the customer through our infrastructure and network being accessible by our local communities. So we all have lots of branches. And the other thing that we all have is, we all have our frontline staff, and in our case, our estrellas are very, very close to the customers in our communities. So that's how the best companies in this market win in that segment.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#7

Sure, enormously important. And that's a very good transition now into talking about our business and how we operate in the market.

David Parkinson

executive
#8

Yes. So we are a leading provider of installment loans on the market. We are amongst the top 5 players of all of that competition in our space. We've got a significant experience on the market. And actually, this year, we'll have a milestone because we'll celebrate 20 years on the marketplace. So we also have our infrastructure. We've got 57 branches, and we operate in 27 of the 32 states, and I'll talk about this shortly. And we've held and served already over 5 million Mexican customers. We've got good branch awareness. We don't operate everywhere, but where we do, we've got over 70% branch awareness, and we've got an exceptional Net Promoter Score of over 80%. And finally, we're a recognized award-winning business. So our CSR program, Together We Care, has been running now for 17 years and consistently wins awards. We're a top 500 company. Our innovation program recently was recognized Forbes. Our CIO was recognized by CIO Magazine. We're Certified Healthy Place to Work, and we've been recognized recently by the Wellness Council in one of their top tiers in their categories. So with great business, and we take all of our responsibility seriously.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#9

And the great thing is that it is very important to do the right thing, but these days, it's equally important to be seen to do the right thing. And I think these accolades that you and your team are winning are fantastic in that respect.

David Parkinson

executive
#10

Yes. Yes.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#11

So moving on then in terms of how we serve the customers, what they want from us and how we deliver it. Let us move into that.

David Parkinson

executive
#12

Okay. Well, we operate with 2 business lines that have separate networks. Firstly, home credit. So in -- Home Credit is individual, weekly-paid installment loans. We've got a very extensive footprint that we have across Mexico, and I'll show that shortly. We've got a significant amount of people and a large and importantly growing customer base. Our average loan term is 42 weeks, which is a lot shorter than what viewers might be aware of from our European experience. And equally, our long size is about GBP 300, which is simply a reflection of the income levels in our target segment.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#13

So for comparison, in Europe, that term would probably be more like 70 to 75 weeks, and the average loan size would probably be about 3x.

David Parkinson

executive
#14

Correct.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#15

You're [ absolute ] here.

David Parkinson

executive
#16

Correct. We also have Negocio. So for viewers benefits, we've got about 4 million very, very small enterprises across Mexico. These are usually sole traders, small family businesses, and these businesses often operate from the customer's home, either the ground floor of the apartment or somewhere within the home. We call these Negocios, and Negocio in Spanish just simply means business in English. And these are typically small grocery stores or general-purpose stores, maybe auto repair or fixed food outlets. We currently only operate this business line in Mexico City. There is a lot of potential there. We have around 8,000 customers, issue values and average long sizes as we can see are a lot higher than we have in home credit. And our loans are typically used as working capital in order for our customers to buy product and then sell it on to their customers. And in both home credit and Negocio, we offer as a value-added service optional life and health insurance.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#17

And I can confirm, as you know, from being out and meeting lots of our Negocio customers, they are actually the very same as our home credit customers. They just happen to run a micro business from the front of their home or whatever it might be.

David Parkinson

executive
#18

They are, absolutely.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#19

Yes, but it is an enormous opportunity for us. Okay. And the team, David, does you're working with to deliver all this?

David Parkinson

executive
#20

Yes. So let me introduce you to the team. So very briefly, this is a team that lead this business. I would say a hugely talented team that blends significant Provident experience and expertise in the individual's chosen specialism. And as viewers can see, most of my team have got multi-geography experience, a really experienced team. There are 3 non-Mexicans in the team. So myself, Bartek and Derek. Although I must say, Derek has been here in Mexico for more than half of his entire Provident career.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#21

Okay. And then this is the team, I suppose, over a number of years that has built out the business. Now one of the questions I get asked when I meet investors is, why Mexico? And I explain about the opportunity. But they also like to understand, do we just arrive and build everything at once? Or how did we do it?

David Parkinson

executive
#22

Okay. So I mentioned that we have a presence in 27 of the 32 states. Now we aren't in every city and town and each one of those states, and you'll see that a little bit in more detail later in the presentation. But we started here in Puebla back in 2003, and Puebla is the fourth largest city in the country, and it's got a really good location because of access links to East, West and also Mexico City. And from Puebla, we essentially moved out with a ripple effect to adjacent states and covered quite a lot of the territory over the next few years. An important point is, when we entered Guadalajara in 2008 because Guadalajara is the third largest city in the country by population. So going there, we already kind of refined our entry method, and we refined our skills in order to go to bigger cities. Then a couple of years after that, we moved into Monterrey, which is the second largest city in the country and essentially, did the same thing there, start to develop that state and adjacent states. And then in 2016, we came to Mexico City, the largest city in the country by some distance and start to develop that and the surrounding areas of Mexico City. And fast forward to 2022, and we've just recently entered Tijuana, which we can see in blue in Baja California on the top left of the map. And this was one of the largest remaining cities that we hadn't already started to build a presence in, and we'll use this as a hub to develop other geographies around that Baja California area. So my key message here is, whilst we've been on the market for 20 years, when you look at the big population of Guadalajara, Monterrey and Mexico City that we've only operated in for a few years, there's still quite a lot of opportunity to develop those particular cities and the territories around them.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#23

And I think the pace of our growth has been very measured and very sensible. Now you mentioned at the start that when you overlay this map onto Europe, it stretches from I think Northern Ireland down to Istanbul. How do you control or govern or manage a business over such a huge geography?

David Parkinson

executive
#24

Well, we've got a really good field structure, and I'll take viewers through a couple of important points here because running a business like ours needs a lot of experience and relatively tight spans of controls because of how much of the geography spread out. And when you're a growing business, you're constantly recruiting new people and there needs to be a very hands-on approach to coaching, learning and development. So that's why we have typically smaller spans of controls than we have in Europe. But starting at the base of the pyramid, we've got our 10,000 estrellas as we call them over here. So estrellas are our representatives. Estrellas mean stars, and there are stars. So they typically have around 75 customers. As smaller the numbers than we would see in Europe, but that's predominantly because a lot of our estrellas actually go and see their customers and manage their territory on foot. So they walk. We don't have access to public transport or their own transportation. 0ur first-line managers of which we have 900 have around 10 estrellas each. So again, smaller spans of control than we have in Europe. But bear in mind, a lot of our Development Managers and a lot of our estrellas are quite new. So we don't want to stretch spans of controls too much. The Area Manager and the DOM levels or the next level is up, and they are still pretty hands-on operational roles in the business, working with the Development Managers in the field. So we think they can take a little bit more. So they operate with round about 6 -- of [ they direct ] report each. And then when you go higher up to Regional Sales Leaders and my 2 Divisional Directors, Derek and Bartek, the spans of controls need to be a little bit lighter because they are geographically remote to their team. They have to do a lot of traveling. So this is how we manage our business, and it's really about having experience to make sure that we have the appropriate spans of controls for us in order to manage our operational rhythm.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#25

Sure. And I think it's really important that people understand this because it is a massive geography, but this is a very well-defined structure and a very mature structure that works for us.

David Parkinson

executive
#26

Correct.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#27

Now in that whole pyramid, you probably have, I would say, 2 categories of people. You have those who are employed by us, and you have our representatives or estrellas. So let's look at each of those in turn.

David Parkinson

executive
#28

Okay. Well, this is the business as a whole. So we've got 2,500 employees, more or less. About 45% are women. We've got 10,000 estrellas as we've already talked about, and 93% of women. And we've got about 50 senior managers in the business and about 1/3 of them are women as well. And that's important because we've got a good balance -- got a good gender balance in the business. I describe our workforce as really highly engaged and participative. So whenever we've got any service to complete or we ask our employees for opinion, we've typically got response rates in the 90s. So there's a real appetite to give feedback about what we should do. And the other thing that's really particular to Mexico is such a social connection that we've constantly got about 300 volunteers. They turn up every time we do any CSR activity, and it's fantastic to see them there. And the picture you can see is of our top 500 people. We had this event in Acapulco on the west of Mexico in October, and it's a recognition of our best of the best of the best performers. And we do this each year, and we get a lot of insight. And we ask a lot of questions about, for example, how they manage purpose, what do they think about our products, what do they need from a development standpoint. So it's absolutely fantastic. Now clearly such a big workforce needs a lot of development and a lot of investment. And I've put a number of things across the bottom which are highlights of last year from a developmental standpoint, but I'll just pick out two. And the first one is, over 6,300 of our estrellas completed the Academy Foundation level. So this is online learning supplemented with videos and workshops. And it's really important because the content of this is not only knowledge and skills that they would need to perform that role, it's also really important life skills, such as how to manage a family budget, and that went down really, really well and very, very high participation. And the other thing I would mention is on the far right-hand side, which we now have 30% of our development managers that used to be estrellas. And at the beginning of the year, that was only 11%. So we really promoted this career development from the front line into first manager position. And as I'm sure viewers can imagine, we get a lot of benefits when we've got a new employee started that already knows our business, that already knows the territories which we operate, already knows our customers and our rules. So that's a fantastic development that we'll continue with that.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#29

Sure. And I think that's just a perfect segue then to talk about the net -- well, the biggest population of our, which are our estrellas, 10,000 that you keep referring to.

David Parkinson

executive
#30

Yes. So we call them stars, and I think stars for a reason. They're absolutely fantastic. Now most of our stars -- most of our estrellas are women and typically heads a family and a breadwinner in their household. Average length of service is around 4 years, and they really value the opportunity to be able to build an income stream with Provident, improve their financial situation whilst continuing to do all of the things that they have to do as a key person in their family. Now the 2 ladies that we can see here are our actually real estrellas. And I've worked in several home credit countries over the course of my career, and in my opinion, our best representatives here in Mexico are no different to the best representatives that are met in other parts of the country. They are hard-working, kind and determined people who have the ability to connect within the communities and really manage a personal relationship with customers. Now the lady at the top of the picture is a lady called Betty. Now you've met Betty.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#31

Yes, I've met Betty.

David Parkinson

executive
#32

And I met Betty on my first visit. It was my first branch visit back in 2019 to Guadalajara. So I could talk a long time about the attributes and why our estrellas join us, but I just thought it's better to show a video of Betty, and she can describe it for ourself.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#33

Great. Okay. Well, let's have a look at the video then. [Presentation]

Gerard Ryan

executive
#34

Okay. Well, I mean that was just a fantastic example of an estrellas. And the good thing about that video, I think, David, is that, that lady is not an exception. She is more of the rule in terms of the quality of people that you have working here. So that's a great example of an estrella. What about our customers?

David Parkinson

executive
#35

Yes. Well, clearly, our customers are the most important people in our business. We're all here to serve our customers. And as with our estrellas, the majority of our customers are women. So it's very much a female-to-female business at the front end. Most have children and most were a key contributor to the family finances. Just over 1/3 of our customers live in what we call rural communities and most are typically underserved by traditional banks and most have very limited credit history and need to borrow and budget very carefully on that tight financial situation. Now the lady in the picture here is Jennifer. Now Jennifer is also a real customer from Oaxaca. So again, rather than me talk about why a customer would choose Provident and what a customer would use their loan for, let's hear from Jennifer.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#36

Okay. Fantastic. [Presentation]

Gerard Ryan

executive
#37

Okay. Well, who couldn't help but be inspired by that video. And the first time I saw that video, I think, a few days ago, I asked you -- I said, well, is this stage managed? And what did you tell me?

David Parkinson

executive
#38

Well, actually, it's part of our purpose program. We set out to collect customer stories and estrella's stories from all over the country. So we've actually got these real stories from all parts of Mexico because we wanted to share them with our local branch staff so that they could relate to something and somebody who within their geography. So it's everywhere.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#39

Okay. Fantastic. Okay. Well, look, so we've talked about our business, the products, the services. We've talked about the structure in the field. We talked about our colleagues, and we talked about our estrellas. But clearly, all of this drives to one thing, which is performance. So let's talk a little bit about the performance of the business.

David Parkinson

executive
#40

Okay. So I haven't now met everybody. Let me share some recent results. Now these results are up to the end of September last year. And as you can see from the chart, we're delivering solid growth year-over-year in relation to customer lending. So the top chart over 20% year-over-year as at the end of September. We're also very satisfied. If you look at the bottom chart with our receivable growth trends. So you can see here several quarters and it's just consistent growth over growth. So we're now again year-over-year just above that 20%. And I'd point out, I think it's very important. Certainly, it was very important to us here that we remain profitable through the pandemic period and due to our operational rhythm, which we crafted through that pandemic period, and our performance management systems and our data-driven decision process, we're now delivering sustainable customer growth that will obviously lead into good levels of profit growth.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#41

Yes. And I'm sure you won't mind me admitting that when the pandemic hit, the single business I was most worried about was your business.

David Parkinson

executive
#42

Yes. Yes.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#43

And partly because it's an enormous country. The health care system isn't geared up for a pandemic, and we were very, very worried. But as you said, for all the reasons you've just described, the business remained profitable throughout and it's now firmly back in growth mode. Now this growth obviously is translating into returns for the business. So let's have a look at that.

David Parkinson

executive
#44

Yes . So we've got 4 slides here, 4 chart which I'll explain, but we're very satisfied that we are delivering on our target returns of just above 20% whilst investing at the same time in growth. And I think that's an important message for the viewers. So we are delivering returns while still growing. On these charts, we see data as of the end of June for Mexico in comparison to IPF Group. And it shows, in my opinion, that we've got a balance of income and expense in the business. Firstly, on the income side. So our revenue yield is 86.5%. And we look at pricing relative to what's happening on the market in our chosen segments and our price reflects risk. So there are no price caps here in Mexico. Therefore, it's a kind of natural pricing set by consumers and lenders in this natural competitive environment. Our impairment rate is higher at 27.9%. However, it's in the ranges that we set taking into consideration our risk profile and the fact that we are a growing business. Unlike in European home credit, we don't benefit from a mature debt sales opportunity over here in Mexico. So we just have this headline impairment. Our cost-income ratio is 53.8%, and it's reducing. We're very proud of this actually. So it will continue in this direction. We rightsized, as everybody did and IPF through the pandemic, and we haven't allowed that headcount to creep. So all our new headcount is either directly related to strategic developments or it's related to our operational growth through expansion and extension.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#45

Sure. Well, really, I think a solid set of numbers. Now in many respects, I suppose this is looking in the rear-view mirror. This is what you have delivered. But one of the things I constantly tell people who are interested in the business and investors in particular, is about the potential of your business and how you're looking at that. So let's go now from a rear-view mirror to looking forward and seeing what you're up to.

David Parkinson

executive
#46

Okay. Well, we keep our development agenda pretty sharp and tight and focused. So there are 4 things here that we're really concentrating on right now, and I'll talk about each in a little bit more detail. But at a high level, it's improving our customer experience, it's driving synergies with Creditea. Creditea, part of IPF Digital, that operate over here. And essentially, this is about including more applicants accepted by IPF by working together. Territory optimization to increase our penetration within our existing footprint, and finally, extending and expanding the footprint that we have into new geographies. So they are the 4 things that we're really focused on.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#47

Okay. And we should say, for anybody watching here who might not be as familiar with the business, what we're talking about today is home credit.

David Parkinson

executive
#48

Correct. Provident.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#49

We do -- Provident. And we do have the Creditea business, which is based out of Mexico, but that will be the subject of another in-depth insight piece. Okay. So let's walk through each of these 4 pillars that you have here.

David Parkinson

executive
#50

Well, the first one is improving our customer experience. So as you can see from the top row, our customer experience back in 2021 included lots of handoffs. I don't intend to go through the detail here, but visually, you can see a lot of handoffs and it took a long time. So typically what we call Time to yes, so this is the time it takes for us to make a credit decision about an application was taking longer than 24 hours. And our Time to cash, which is the time it take for us to get the product to the customer, was taken 4 days. So we weren't very happy about this. And actually, these 2 elements, as defined by customers, were pain points in the customer journey. So we felt we should take notice of this. So we use technology and automation in order to reduce the number of handoffs and therefore, reduce time, providing a better and more modern feeling customer experience. Now the whole process is laid out in a tactical solution that we can see in the second row for 2022, but I'll just pick out a couple of main points in that process. And at the core of this slicker process is our digital origination process. So digital origination is essentially where our estrella can access a web application via her mobile phone in the customer's house and start to complete that application. We capture a picture of the customer's ID. We capture a selfie of the customer. We compare the two, and we compare that ID to the government database in order to validate it. We also take a geo location where the web application has been accessed from, and we compare that to the given address, again, to validate that the address is in the approximation of the geo location.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#51

And that geo location comes from our estrella's handheld technology.

David Parkinson

executive
#52

It's their handheld technology.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#53

And it says, this is where that individual has done that.

David Parkinson

executive
#54

It puts a geo location on where the mobile phone is at that point in time.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#55

Okay.

David Parkinson

executive
#56

Okay. And the other key improvements in this process included the development of what we call an e-contract. So this is an electronic contract that we would send to the customer. The customer would sign on their mobile phone, and then they would send that back to us. And the other key development was the development of what we call a payment order, which we would send a QR code to the customer, and the customer could then go to the bank and get the cash from the bank. So all of these steps really reduce the amount of handoffs, and as viewers can see in the detail that it reduced the amount of visits that customers and our DMs would need to make with the customer. And as a result, has reduced the processing time. By now, we've got Time to yes in less than an hour, Time to cash in 36 hours. And of all of my time in Provident, this is the best received idea that we've ever launched to the field because our estrellas know customers absolutely love this to the point that more than 50% of all of our sales now go through this process, and we think in time, we can get this to about 75%. And the only reason it's not 100%, as I mentioned earlier, we've got a lot of customers in rural locations where we don't have bank branches.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#57

Sure. As you know, on Monday, I went out with some estrellas and I did 3 customer calls, and I went and visited a branch. So I can absolutely confirm what you're saying about how much more smooth that transition is, as in the interaction with the customer. And in fact, I did 2 collection calls, all digital, and I did one sale. And again, that was digital. And in fact, the Time to yes of 50 minutes we beat quite considerably because I think it was probably about 3 minutes or something like that. And then I went on to the local branch where I saw the administration center where they manage all this in the background. And I have to say, having visited over a number of years, the reduction in the volume of paper they're dealing with is absolutely fantastic to see. So real benefits come...

David Parkinson

executive
#58

Everybody is happy with this.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#59

Okay. So now we're going to -- so that was your first piece. Today isn't about Creditea, but you are working very closely with Creditea.

David Parkinson

executive
#60

Yes, we've got a very good relationship with Creditea, both myself with [ Nacio ] and the rest of my team have got really good relationships with his team. And what we call Creditea synergies is actually a very important part of our purpose as this development genuinely helps with financial inclusion as well as being a very good hybrid solution for customers who apply digitally online, but end up with a physical process at the end of it. And the key innovation in this referral process was the development of what we call an integrated journey. And in April this year, we finished that integrated journey. And essentially, what happens is, in the event that if a customer is unsuccessful in their Creditea application, then Creditea now score the customer using Provident's scorecard, and this is done whilst the customer is still on the page and an indicative offer is made to the customer, so the customer doesn't have to go anywhere else. They already know that their needs can be served. If the customer pushes a button and says, yes, I would like contact by Provident. That's all done in the background and a lot of customers do say yes. And then the Provident Contact Center then gets in touch with the customer and that all happens literally in a few minutes. And we're very, very happy not only with the new process, which will continue to refine, but we're very happy with the results. So of all of the traffic that we've received from Creditea, we've now on the Provident side, got around 8,000 customers. We're very happy with the credit performance so that these customers are just like regular Provident customers, and we're very happy with all of the customer behavior. So back when we didn't have this process, we would be able to conclude on the Provident side about 60 contracts a week with our previous relationship. That's now up to about 250 contracts per week. So a real step change and that's why we call it 4x more than what we had before, and our ambition is to, on an annualized basis, be able to serve around 18,000 to 20,000 more new customers as a result of this synergy operation, which is really purposeful, and it includes more customers than we would have otherwise had within IPF.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#61

Sure. I think it's just a fantastic story and it's one that I know for sure that nobody else has the ability to provide that hybrid journey. Okay. So this is really all dealing now with what we have today, but I know that you're looking very strongly at expanding way beyond that. So let's have a look at that.

David Parkinson

executive
#62

Yes. So on this slide, I mentioned earlier that we estimate the number of consumers in our target segment around 52 million, and this chart illustrate how we break that down geographically. So first of all, if we go to the smaller circle right at the bottom of the page, our existing business -- so the footprint of our existing business covers 27.7 million of our target consumer population. And our strategy here is to optimize within our footprint, and I'll talk about that in a moment. Moving outwards from the circles, we then got 7.7 million target consumers that live within 10 kilometers, so not a big distance from our existing footprint, mainly in large cities and towns. We call this near extension, and our strategy here is to extend into these close geographies, typically by adding new sections and by adding new agencies. We're then moving out, got another target population that we call extension around the existing business. These geographies due to being a little bit further away and probably a secondary target for us, so it's not been a focus of ours just yet. And then finally, we've got 5.5 million target consumers outside of the 30 kilometers. Realistically, these are typically hundreds of kilometers away, but a large conurbations that we might consider entry into in time. On the map earlier, in the blue section at the top, we could see Baja California and Tijuana is in there. So that would be an example of how we can move into that more distant geography with a significant area of potential.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#63

And the numbers are enormous. The opportunities are enormous.

David Parkinson

executive
#64

They are and I think as viewers can see at the side, we don't think we can get all of the way to the 52 million. So there are pockets of communities that either aren't big enough or are too remote that we don't think we could serve with what we have at the moment. But when you look at the 52 million, other than the 8.68 million, we think we can serve eventually the majority of that market.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#65

Sure. So talk us through what you mean by optimization then.

David Parkinson

executive
#66

Okay. So coming back to optimization of the footprint. Our experience now a debtor analysis tells us that in particular, where sections have too big of an opportunity, they grow inefficiently. So they've become a good section in terms of size for us, typically around about 1,000 customers or more, but the way that they do that is with very, very high levels of new customers and very, very high levels of runoff. So that's quite inefficient. And we're able to say based on the analysis that if there's an opportunity of potential customers of more than 37,500, that's probably going to end up in one of these sections where it grows inefficiently. And we've also been able to define the sweet spot, which is about 26,000 potential customers. So what we're trying to do is to essentially split sections in order to reduce the number of sections that are in this very, very high potential category to grow inefficiently.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#67

I know you're going to talk us through an example.

David Parkinson

executive
#68

Well, I will. Good that you mentioned that. We've got one real example, and this is a place called Texcoco. So it's a branch inside Mexico City. And in this case, the proposal is to split 2 large sections and aired a third section in the middle of that footprint as well as extend the footprint just a little bit. So what we can see here is quite a detailed map of the territory and what you can see in the outline of the 2 sections. So you can see the sections of O and R. O is the red category. It's got about 1,100 customers. It's got 12 agencies already. So it's quite a large area, and we can see on the collections to debit. So it's a quality indicator, already the quality starting to suffer a little bit, and this has got a lot of potential, so 33,000 potential customers. And then the other section we can see is section R, 680 customers, much better quality because it's still relatively small, but a huge potential at 64,000. So the opportunity here is to essentially put a new section right in the middle of it. And we can see with this new section, when we go through this as part of our team, we look at -- so if we look at the blue box in the top right, we look at how far is this new section from the branch, both in distance and in traveling time because the DM would need to occasionally come to the branch, and we don't want the distance is to be too far. We look at the population in our target segment of C- and Ds, and then we look at the potential population, which in this case, as we can see in the chart, is just under 30,000. And we look at our previous write-off to see what level of customers we've had there in the past. Now the other thing that we then look at is, we can see the before and after here. So this is the detailed map of the new section. And the blue box at the top tells us how it used to look so with these 2 large sections, and the green box on the right tells us how it will look going forward. So we've got a much better balance of these 3 sections. And I'd point out 2 things here. First of all, we look at do we have main competitors operating in our area. We also look at do we have Creditea rejections. And if we have those at good levels, that's a good proxy for our opportunity to grow. That's important...

Gerard Ryan

executive
#69

So that mean competitor then -- are the number of customers that our main competitors have in that particular site.

David Parkinson

executive
#70

In that particular geography -- in those particular geographies. We also look the proportion of C- customers. So C- customers are our best risk category, but typically they're the most difficult to penetrate. So if we have a high proportion, as we can see with Section R, we will typically allow those sections to have a high eligible population. So it's above the 37,500, still at 46, but it's because it's got a higher population of our lowest-risk customs.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#71

Okay. So basically, what we're seeing here, we're taking an area in Texcoco, 2 sections and using lots of data analytics. And I know you've worked with our group data science team back in the U.K., you've come up with a very rational split that creates 3 out of 2 that will give you better opportunity.

David Parkinson

executive
#72

Correct. It just gives us a better opportunity to grow with control.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#73

Okay, but all data driven.

David Parkinson

executive
#74

All data driven. Yes.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#75

Okay. And in terms of what this has achieved so far?

David Parkinson

executive
#76

Yes. Well, I think it's worthwhile pointing out that this is a real story. This isn't a desktop piece of work. This has actually happened over the last year. So we started out with this process, did all of the analysis and started out with a plan. So plan for each region to do the kind of things we've talked about with Texcoco back in September 2021. And this is only looking at the existing business optimization and the extension. And what we can see is, we've actually added 1 million of our eligible target population using this process. So gradually, easing out within that 10 kilometers. We've added 72 new sections. So from the example before that was one section, we've done that 72 time. We've added 659 agencies because after we add the section, we then expect these sections to fill with agencies, and we've added almost 56,000 additional customers. So this is real results and real progress using that very data-driven approach.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#77

Okay. And do you have a visual representation then of what this might look like?

David Parkinson

executive
#78

Well, we do. So when we look at the country as a whole, we can see the shape in those different categories. So we can see all of the green spots, which is where we currently operate together with the near extension and the extension around business -- around our existing business. So you can see that very, very highly penetrated in Central Mexico. But then we can see the expansion opportunities, and again, I'd point out Tijuana, where we recently added 580,000 eligible target customers to our population, and we'll extend around those geographies. The important point to add here is, if you look at that 43.7 million over the 27.7 million, it's more than 50% growth. So we got 50% growth and optimization opportunities.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#79

Sure.

David Parkinson

executive
#80

So it really is a fantastic opportunity for us. When we think about the new branch expansion, we've actually gone with a different model for Tijuana. So we've gone with what we call an additive model. In the past, we used to go in there with a lot of people initially and then fill it out very quickly with Tijuana at primarily because we want to continue to deliver our target returns and grow. We've gone with an additive model, which essentially using the data that we've talked about in the previous slide, helps us identify territories and geography systems. We then get a foothold and then move on to the next one. Again, this ripple effect. So it takes us about 2.5 years now to fully infrastructure, but it gives a much shallower [ catch up ] and enables us to continue to grow and develop new branches whilst maintaining our target returns.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#81

Sure. And you and I were there about 8 weeks ago. And I'd have to say, having spent a few days there with you, it certainly feels like the right way to develop new areas of geography.

David Parkinson

executive
#82

Yes.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#83

Okay. David, that's been really enlightening and fantastic. You've described the country, the sheer scale of the opportunity our people, our products, our services, in particular, our estrellas. We've talked about past performance and returns we're making, which are over our hurdle rate just now. And we've also talked about the future opportunities. So before we go the Q&A, and I'm hoping that we've got lots of questions coming in while we were talking, if you had to sum this up for people who are watching this live.

David Parkinson

executive
#84

Yes. So a brief summary. I think, first of all, we are running a very successful business, delivering our target returns, and I think that's very important. We've got a capable team, absolutely committed to this growth agenda. We've got great prospects for growth. We know that there is growth opportunity and a credit appetite in the market, and I think we've got a plan that we've demonstrated already that we can operationalize. So I think it's very realistic for us to be able to set a fairly near-term vision to be in excess of serving 1 million customers by Provident in this market.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#85

Yes. Look, I have no doubt you're going to blow through 1 million customers based on we've talked about today. So look, that's fantastic. Thank you for that. And Alex is now going to join us, and Alex is going to hit us with any questions that have come in over the past, whatever it was, 35, 40 minutes. So let's go to Q&A. [Operator Instructions]

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#86

Thank you very much for that, David and Gerard. It's an honor to be here with you. And so we've received some questions. They've come in throughout the presentation, and the first one is, you have been in Mexico for nearly 20 years. How far are you into the journey?

David Parkinson

executive
#87

Yes. Well, I think if you look at the math that I talked about earlier, you could come to an argument that would say we're halfway through. But I don't think it will take us another 20 years to get to the rest. And I think when we look at where we've come from and the geographies that we've recently entered, so Mexico City, the big cities that I've talked about, I think we should expect kind of more of an accelerated curve than we've had over the last 20 years to add that additional business.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#88

And the other thing is the journey has obviously become much more exciting with the arrival of Creditea. So if you were to look at Mexico as a geography, you've got David's business with its 700,000-plus customers. You've got [ Nacio's ] business, which soon will be heading for 100,000 customers. And for me, the really exciting thing is the partnership between the 2 businesses that you talked about earlier, David, but also the fact that our Creditea business is investing a lot of time and effort in developing new products and services. And I personally don't see any reason why over time some of those services shouldn't be appropriate for your customers in provident.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#89

Thank you very much. And thank you, James, for that question. I can identify that e-mail. Some of the others, I won't be able to, but thank you very much for that, James. The next question, how did you arrive to the target of 52 million potential population?

David Parkinson

executive
#90

Okay. So if people remember the pyramid, I mentioned the data are on now is about 4 -- well, 3 years old now. We've since had a census in Mexico that we're able to extract some data on. And essentially, what we do is, we look at the total population, we discount that by the number of adults and a number of economically active, we then add in housewives. And we then do a further discount to get to that number that we think reasonably excludes the pyramid of above us and below us.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#91

Very clear, David, thank you very much. And I think the next one is also related. So is the 20% growth rate sustainable? Or what should we expect in the future?

David Parkinson

executive
#92

Okay. Well, I think it's important to mention that if you look at this year, if you look at the previous year, obviously, they're a big J curve coming out of the pandemic. And I think, ordinarily, we would be -- I think we'd be very satisfied. And a lot of it is to do with our management capability to extend and expand to be delivering something around the 10% mark.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#93

And we have learned in the past to our cost that if we encourage sales too strongly, clearly, the estrellas want to earn their commission and they will push sales, but then they'll probably slightly take their eye off the collections piece. So it is a real balancing act to get that right. And so I think around the double-digit 10% mark is probably the more long-term run rate for the business.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#94

Okay. Fantastic. We received one from Stuart Duncan from Peel Hunt. So you mentioned the absence of a rate cap is that a risk? How is the more general regulatory environment?

Gerard Ryan

executive
#95

Well, I suppose there's always a risk that a rate cap will come in, but it's very clear, in Mexico, there is no desire. There is no discussion about it. And we've had AMLO in government as their President for what 3, 4 years now at this stage, and they've deliberately decided that they don't want to go down that route. Now that could change in the future as we've seen in Europe. But at this point, there is no talk about it, no discussion about it. So we feel comfortable on that. And the other thing is, it is, as from David showed from that, the second slide, the one with the pyramid, it's an intensely competitive market. And I think the politicians are comfortable that with a number of players out there and new players coming in all the time, the market is setting a rate that is sensible for the market that they're dealing with here in Mexico.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#96

Thank you very much for that, Gerard. And the next question is, well, do you think you can expand from Mexico further south into Latin America?

Gerard Ryan

executive
#97

Why not? You'd like to. It is an opportunity for us, and when we do look at these things. What I said to extend stakeholders over the last probably a couple of years is that for the next 18 months, they shouldn't expect us to go into new geographies because we have so much that we can grow just to catch up on what we lost through COVID. But let's say, we put that behind us in 1.5 years or so, yes, there's an opportunity for Latin America because the outstanding team that we have here in Mexico have built a really credible business, and we could use that as a platform. So it is an opportunity, but it's not one that people should think or in the next 18 months, we would be arriving in a different country in Latin America.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#98

Thank you, Gerard. Carlos sent this question. What is your perspective on the changing world with fintech market? Do you think the offer or product should evolve with technology?

David Parkinson

executive
#99

Well, I think everything does realistically evolve with technology, and I think if we look at our relationship with Creditea, that's a perfect example of evolution of the product that we offer that customers essentially go online and end up with an edge in service. And those customers are actually very happy with the brand, very happy with the service. And you can't kind of rule out how things will evolve all the time, and I just think we need to keep watching brief and keep our [ area ] close to the ground.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#100

And fintech for us is really a positive story because we are our own fintech in Creditea. And David, you talked earlier about the work you were doing with Creditea. And the fact that we're able to accept more customers is core to our purpose, financial inclusion. So with more fintech arriving in Mexico and more customers opening bank accounts, for us, that fulfills the purpose. That's really good. But the combination of our own fintech and our own Provident business for us is a winning formula. That's how I would say it. So we're not afraid of fintech because we're in it ourselves.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#101

Fantastic. We received another question from Penelope Fitzherbert from Guy Butler. And how long has the management structure from the estrellas up to the country manager being in place and operating as described?

David Parkinson

executive
#102

So as I mentioned in the presentation, we rightsized in 2020. So I arrived here at 2019. We rightsized as did all of IPF through the pandemic, and we did that very carefully actually to make sure that when we did that, we didn't really affect too much of the real front end of the business, so the number of DMs and number of estrellas. And we took a level of management out more or less in the middle. So we wanted the next level up to be a lot closer to our people that actually run and drive the business.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#103

And prior to the pandemic, there was a similar structure, but clearly, we revised it during the pandemic. So it's been around a long time.

David Parkinson

executive
#104

Yes. With -- before the pandemic with one more level.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#105

One more level, yes.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#106

Okay. Well, that's all I have in questions right now from the things that came in. I don't know if anybody is pushing the button right now, but let's give it a minute. And if not, I think that we will be ready to close down the webcast for today.

Gerard Ryan

executive
#107

Okay. And I know people need to get off after an hour, and we did go for -- I discovered afterwards 50-plus minutes. Alex, thank you for that. David, a huge thank you to you and your team for the business here. Hopefully, that presentation has given people real insight into what it's like to do business in Mexico and how we do it. It is a fantastic business, and it's a business that has a tremendous runway. That's how I viewed it. Tremendous opportunities ahead of us. So thank you to everybody here in the team for that. Our next deep dive or insights piece will be on our Digital businesses, and we'll probably do that, I think, a couple of months after our results. So until then, thank you very much. And if you do have any further questions or you would like to know more about Mexico or IPF, you can always contact our Investor Relations team online or by phone. So thanks very much. Thank you, David.

David Parkinson

executive
#108

Thank you.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#109

Thank you.

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