International Personal Finance plc (IPF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 10, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Gerard Ryan
executiveHello, and welcome to the third of our in-depth insight pieces into the businesses of IPF. Now if you're not used to this format on our website, you will find what I would call "Episodes One and Two." In one, I interviewed Agnieszka Klos-Siddiqui, our Country Manager for Poland. And in two, I went to Puebla and interviewed David Parkinson, our divisional leader for home credit in Mexico. And for number three, I'm delighted to say I'm here with Povilas Gircys, who is our divisional leader for IPF Digital.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. Hello, everyone.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd Povilas, thank you so much for the invite to Talen. I love this place. And I love the sunshine.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. Finally, finally, we have it. Hopefully, it will stay longer with us.
Gerard Ryan
executiveGood. Well, Povilas, we're going to spend the next 40-45 minutes talking about your business and digital, all things digital. And as you look at the screen and we put up these slides over the next 3 quarters of an hour, at the bottom of your screen, you should see a text box. So at any point in time, key in any questions you might have there. And then Wojciech will present those questions to us at the end, and we'll answer all of those for you. With that, let's kick off Povilas with, how about a brief introduction to Povilas the man.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. I've joined the business 9 years ago. I came from the telecommunications and noticed that it's very similar businesses, lending and the telcos, meaning that we manage the big customer bases, marketing is very important. Leaky bucket is very evident. Acquisition, churn, retention, it's obvious dilemmas and monthly invoices either. So with all that, I've joined as a country manager for Lithuania, then I went up the rank to regional country manager and business operations manager. And in 2021, I became division leader for IPF Digital.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAn exciting journey. For those who might not be used to the terminology, when you refer to monthly invoices, you're talking about customer repayments?
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect, correct.
Gerard Ryan
executiveOkay. So Povilas, let's kick off with the overview of IPF Digital.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. The business was established in 2005. And until then, we have 1.1 million unique customers served and now we're turning towards 0.25 million of the customers in our 6 markets. So Baltics, we've seen likes of Estonia, Poland, Mexico and Australia. We have 3 brands. It's Credit24, the longest brand that we use in the Baltics and Australia, we have Creditea in Mexico and obviously Provident in Poland, definitely being fintech and being in very, very competitive environment means that we need to rely on technology that we built ourselves and as well the top leading partners that providing us services that we use to serve the customers in underwriting, in general operations, et cetera. As well, as I said, we are in 6 markets, but our employees are in 11 countries. So as well, it gives additional complexity of the cultural differences, time zones, et cetera, but I will talk more about how we do that operationally. And again, I'm very proud that we as well award-winning company as well, which means that even our industries are recognizing that. For example, in Mexico, we are top 3 place to work or in Estonia, just recently, we got the award for being the great place for work and life balance.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd I know the customer satisfaction is near the top of your list and NPS as well?
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And this is one of the metrics we are constantly monitoring and obviously, the feedback from the customers is immediately reflected into the hub and the business.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSure. Now the business was started back in 2005 by Rami Ryhänen. But since then, it's been on a journey.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And we're still in the journey. First of all, I would start from the geographical expansion. So in 2006, we opened Estonia and Finland, then Latvia, Lithuania came into the family. In 2012, we launched Australia ,in '15 Spain, then following Mexico. Obviously, with all that, we're extending our product portfolio to name a few, but very important ones. So in 2015, we launched the credit line, which I'll talk a bit later. And in 2022, last year, mobile wallet was introduced in quite a few markets, either. With all that, we had few hubs as well to go through and neither the decisions were made to collect out Finland and Spain simply because those markets were not delivering the returns. So it's a journey, right? And obviously exciting journey, which I hope today will go through.
Gerard Ryan
executiveIndeed. And in terms of the respective sizes of the businesses that we have across IPF Digital.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. So as mentioned, we are in the 6 markets, the Baltics, obviously, they are the smallest ones -- but important here is to take a look at the, in the slide at the percentage from -- of our market share or the -- what amount of the customers we have from the working population. So seeing that figure around 3% is something that we are looking for achieving at some stage in the future when we look at the other 3 markets as well.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd for me, that's hugely exciting because as you say, the Baltics are the most established markets that we have, and you're at, give or take 3% of the employed population. And if I were to even think remotely getting a fraction of that in Mexico, that business would have several hundred thousand customers. So really lots of opportunity and lots of excitement in the business about building that out. Now being in so many markets, clearly, we have to deal with a lot of regulators.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes, not a secret, we're operating in a heavily regulated market. And it didn't happen yesterday. And obviously, it doesn't -- it obviously requires a lot of expertise and the knowledge, so which we are building and we are still building every day by working very closely with the regulator with consultating them sometimes, et cetera. So it's important, but our life, right? So we're taking that as what it is. And I think we're managing pretty effectively associations as well helping us a lot because the times from early 2000s have changed, right? So there is no more wild wild west approach, and we're really appreciating that how the markets are maturing, so to say. And all the associations we're having, we are playing the leading role to maintain that contact with the regulator.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd the important thing about this associations is that when you want to push your case in a particular country, it's never in your best interest to do it in your own brand name of your own business. But if you're part of an association, an industry-wide association, that's much better, which is why I'm so pleased with the work you and your team are doing in being involved in all those associations and driving them forward. Now the other thing you have because of regulation, and it's at the bottom of this slide are those cost caps.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And that's part of the regulation that we are facing in the market. And it's only part of the regulation. Obviously, in quite a few markets, we have the debt income requirements established, which means that we need to really evaluate customer income versus their obligations, and that as well puts additional complexity for us. But very important in such markets where the heavy regulation is, how quickly you are -- we are ready to adopt the change. And this is what we're always striving for. So obviously, work very close to the regulator to understand clearly what is the change, how we're adapting to the change. So this is the key principles we are following in those markets. And so far, we're doing pretty good.
Gerard Ryan
executiveFantastic. Now no shortage of regulation, equally, no shortage of competition.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect. And this is the fraction of the competitors we added to this slide. But key points to make. So first of all, we don't provide pay day loans, right? So that's part of the competitors were not really interested.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd we should say that we don't provide payday loans because, in our view, charging somebody 1,000 or 2,000%, even if it's for a short period is not something we want to be associated with.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes, correct. And this moral dilemma, we already answered to ourselves and therefore, we're out of that. We've never been interested in that as well, we don't compete with the banks. So our key segment is, as we call it, underserved. And this is where we're putting all our knowledge, experience and effort how to gain the market share there, how to gain more customers.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd I think one of the key questions viewers might have now is you're in the underserved market, who are the customers that you're trying to serve. So let's talk a bit about how you think about your customers.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And... well, first of all, my way here, right? So why are customers choosing us? So definitely, they in certain need, right? So we have talked about the customers who have certain needs to be met, and this is where we are coming into the play. That's how customers are looking for us. Important part obviously is the demographics. This section is rather stable. It's not changing throughout the years. And looking at the competitors, we are slightly skewed to the right, meaning that we have slightly all the customers, which means they are more reliable, and obviously, that reflects into the quality. And at the same time, they are more likely to be single, more renting the house but obviously, full-time workers, which again is important towards the sustainable income they are receiving and then they can afford the loan. From behavior, I'll talk a bit later, but predominantly, this is a digital side of customers, who choose this type of the option to opt for the loan or any other services they are choosing to -- with the other industries, too. Geographically, no secret and no surprises here. Obviously, we are mostly serving the customers in the biggest cities where the populations are concentrated either.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSure. I think many of our viewers would be interested in whether or not this is the same demographic as we serve in home credit. And what I would say is in home credit, our customers tend to be slightly older, so let's call it, middle aged, mostly women, taking care of a family and a home, and they want to borrow money for things like kids going back to school or other household expenses and they need a reasonable amount of time to repay it. And they also have what I would call intermittent work usually in the cash end of society. In our digital business, the customers tend to be slightly younger, even though you said they're a bit towards the older, but they're younger than the home credit customers. They are more male than the female side. They tend to be in better jobs, so have higher income and can borrow more money. And they tend to be what I would call a home renter rather than a home owner. Now Povilas, you described the customers as stable, but they are evolving aren't they? In terms of what they're thinking about.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect. And these are the trends we are observing and that very much influencing how we operate because that affects how we're interacting with the customer, how we approach the customer, what marketing mix we are using. And as I said, digital is what our -- the mean of how we're approaching the customers, how customers are getting to us. And COVID time obviously increased that how customers are -- they move towards digital, competitors as well to move towards digital because that was the main way to interact with the customer. And now we see that more than 80% of all the applications coming from the mobile device. When it used to be desktop or the computer was the predominant one. So that shift is, happened very quickly.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo on their phone, and they can do everything on their phone.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect. So the journeys are totally a mobile device compatible and the customers are obviously doing so as well, we see that even the media usage is changing as well. So this so-called 2-screen pattern of the customers probably we can find in ourselves as well that we watch TV at the same time, the phone is in hands means that we need to reflect to that either to follow the customer in social media, et cetera. So our marketing mix now and versus, let's say, 2, 3, 4 years ago is totally different now.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo increasing expectations, increasing use of digital, particularly mobile, how are you meeting those customer expectations in terms of products?
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And rightly said, customer expectations are increasing because simply, they're increasing elsewhere because they use not only lending digitally, but the, or the food or the tax, et cetera. So how we're addressing that from product portfolio is providing the installment loans and the credit line, right? The credit line we launched in 2015, and it has now around 70% of our total portfolio with the tendency to increase. Now in terms of the installment loans, so obviously, it's a personal loan with the -- as you see maturity of fixed term from 3 to 48 months. And for the customers that who prefer really this fixed monthly repayment, which is obviously, as I said, 30% from our portfolio. Now moving to the credit line is -- well, we can say it is as similar to the credit card. So it's a revolving digital product, lending product where customer gets the amount signed, right, depending on his needs and affordability, and then interest is charged only when the customer makes a draw, and he can decide what amount from this credit limit to take. Then he has several options how to we repay. He can stay with this schedule, as we call it, minimum monthly payment pattern or repay faster and then save obviously on the interest, then again make another draw to his home bank account, et cetera. So they give us another flexibility pattern from the customers, and we see that it made a difference both for customers and for the business.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo essentially, the customer is in control and provided their repayment behavior is good. They continue to have the facility and they use it as they feel free. So clearly, a product that resonates with the customer and their lifestyle.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes, correct. And that's why it's always easier to explain to customers what is, and they appreciate the flexibility if they want to. If not, even in the credit line, customers can stay with this minimum monthly payment schedule because some people that's how they treat it as a control over them.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo they could have the credit line, which is a revolving facility, but treated like an installment loan.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect. So that's one flexibility option. Other one, they can take any amount they want to within this limit assigned, repay whenever they can, but at least with the schedule assigned. So that's the flexibility for the customer. For us, it means that as well, we do the affordability check for the customer wants and then later on, the journey with the customer start, meaning that if a customer wants to and he can afford, he can always increase the credit limit, right? Which means we're extending customer lifetime with us, which means it's a stickier product, which means that with the acquisition cost, which is not getting lower as well are utilized better either. So it's a totally different customer experience for us and for the customer.
Gerard Ryan
executiveI think it's hugely important that stickiness piece because anything that reduces the amount of money we pay to search engines and Google and people like that has got to be a positive thing. So that's one of the things I really like about this. Now Povilas, because you and I sit on the same technology committee and product development committees and all of those, I know how much work we're putting into developing the product. So linking that to what you just mentioned a few minutes ago about mobile. Let's talk about where we're going.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And again, following the customer, matching customer needs, we have the credit line that as well resonates with the customer very well. In 2022, we've launched the mobile wallet in the Baltics. That was enabled by institutional license that we acquired in Estonia in the end of 2021, which can then transport across the Europe. And the benefit is that we're combining 2 worlds together in the application. So it's a payment account and the credit line in the same app, living life over there. Customer can always order the debit card as well, which can be used either as a physical or the virtual one as well, plus a lot of embedded features in that app that makes customers feel more in control. The product is more adaptive for them. And for us, it means we can -- it opens us more additional revenue streams within that platform. So important, last year, we launched in the Baltics. And 2 weeks ago, mobile wallet light version was introduced in Mexico as well with a pretty nice already initial results. But maybe instead of talking more about that, let's take a look at the clip that we provided.
Gerard Ryan
executiveGreat. Okay. So let's have a look at this clip. [Presentation]
Gerard Ryan
executivePovilas, I can absolutely agree with you, a video much more effective at describing what we're doing here for our customers and any words that you and I could come up with. So really fantastic work there. Now we talked about when the business was established back in 2005, the journey we've been on, that kind of snake like journey, the countries we're in and the number of customers we have in each country, the regulators that we deal with and how we do that very proactively, I would say, competitors that we're up against. The customer segment that we're serving their needs and the products that we're using to serve those needs. So let's now take a look at how we are structured internally because I think a lot of people would be interested to know how the business looks internally.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And it's very important, as I said, of being operational in 6 markets and having employees across the globe in 11 markets. So it's not that straightforward, simply to be -- have a strong presence in each and every market because it's not really sustainable. Therefore, we have the concept, as we call hub and spoke, which allows us to have, think global act local approach where the brains of the strategies and all the new technology, et cetera, is considered in the hub. We can talk about credit risk collection, digital marketing, analysis, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I'm sorry if I'm not mentioning all of those, it's just where we have in the hubs. So it's in Warsaw and Talen, right? So this is where the brain part is happening. But in the countries, we have the customer facing. We have sales and marketing implementation present. So that's where this combination of the skills and the experience is nicely combined and many benefits out of that. So knowledge sharing, best practice sharing. So that means that whatever is happening in the market is in consistent way, faster time for learning and adopting to the what's happening and as well as way more optimal in terms of the cost and efficiency.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo essentially, I suppose a bespoke set up where all the functions are centered together, and they provide services out of the individual countries. And just for the avoidance of doubt, I believe we've got lots of brains in the individual countries as well as brains in the hub. But the brains in the individual countries are very much what you and I would call customer-facing. So anything to do with the customer interaction is in the country, but anything that enables that comes from the hub, and it allows us to be much, much more efficient.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect.
Gerard Ryan
executiveNow Povilas, one of the things that people would expect is for a digital business, we are technology-enabled, and we are very much data-driven. So let's talk a little bit about that.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And -- that's what -- who we are. We are a digital lender, right, which means that we need to make sure that customer gets, as smooth experience as possible. And obviously, the additional tools that we use enables that. And that means that we go beyond the traditional credit bureaus. Means that we are following the customer journey with us, customer life cycle with us, starting from the digital customer identification, affordability checks, monitoring of the customers, how they are using the product, right? And are there any patterns of the change happening over there and as well, applying quite a few scoring models starting from the application of the scoring model, behavioral scoring model, collection, fraud, et cetera. So with all that, we can stay with the customer the way he prefers to. As I was mentioning before, customer expectations has changing as well. So we need to be less intrusive, but at the same time to provide bespoke service for the customers.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd speaking of bespoke, so the technology at the center of the business is bespoke, so it's ours, our intellectual property. And then what we're doing is we're buying in all these other technological services and connecting those into that so that we're very flexible. And as regulation changes or customer preferences change, we can unplug a service and plug in a new service that happens to be better or more efficient for us.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect. And maybe to add, having several markets, we're playing the way that we try in one market and I think it works, obviously, we're extending in other markets as well to stay consistent and have less of the different players -- sorry, different providers as much as possible.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSure. So data-driven technology enabled, but always customer-centric.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect. And even in this underwriting process, we always have opportunity to use the customer touch as well. So our call centers as well whenever needed, can contact the customer and do certain additional questions, et cetera. So we always have this opportunity. Some customers even prefer for that, so we have always that solution ready. Talking about the collections. So it's not only what we do but how we do -- and this is what allows us to achieve good results by adopting to the customer preference as well and finding the best ways to -- for the customer to repay. So it can be pay by link. It can be the direct debit or through the app, et cetera. So we try -- test and try different approaches and we see the patterns customers are repaying better, and obviously, that we're implementing across the market, potentially with the certain differences, obviously, as well how the customers are communicating with us as well, for example, in Mexico, WhatsApp is much more preferred than any other channel, while in, let's say, in Baltics, we potentially will pick up the phone and we'll call the customer. So again, it's more about not only achieving the results, but how to do that in the right manner.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo I would describe it as you are omnichannel at the front end when the customer wants to get our service, so a loan or a value-added service, what it might be, so they can choose the channel. But equally, when it comes to repayment of their loan or any servicing needs that they might have, we're trying to be omnichannel there as well. So whatever their preference is, but clearly, the more digital, the better for us and presumably the better for the customer.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes.
Gerard Ryan
executiveOkay. Now one of the areas that people might be interested where there's a key difference between this setup and our home credit business is, as we mentioned, the collection. So just describe what happens in collections for your business when a customer stops repaying or is late?
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. So obviously, we had, as mentioned, 70% of all the volumes are the credit line. So first of all, if customer is already delayed, so we are stopping, we are freezing the usage of the credit line. And then kicks off the process we call the reminder process where we are reminding the customer with different means to get him put back him on the proper repayment pattern and again, understanding the customer, what are the differences -- sorry, the problems potentially he is facing and how we can solve it. If not, then we are moving either to the collection phase or then like we have in the Baltics, we are moving to the rolling debt sale scenario.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo in digital, where you've exhausted the internal options you would then go to an external debt sales. And in digital, that would happen within -- well, at the end of, give or take, 60 days in the home credit business that could be out as far as 6 months because we have the field force and we have an internal collections department as well. So one key difference there for people to be aware of.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes.
Gerard Ryan
executiveOkay. Now we talked of the stand about the countries we're in and the excitement around Mexico. And I was in Mexico the week before last, and I was with Nacho and his team over there, fantastic excitement and great momentum in the business. Let's talk a little bit about Mexico.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. And 2022 was a tipping point for Mexico, a digital business, primarily because it's now not only growing market, but is as well profitable market, right? So we are very happy with those and actually it emphasizes that the things the Mexican team is doing with help of the hub, obviously, is on the right direction, right? So we managed to deliver the top line, but at the same time, secure the profits either. So we are very optimistic that we are finding the recipe for the digital Mexico lending and as well with the cooperation of the Provident and combining the journeys for certain customer segments has proven working very well. So I'm very optimistic with Mexico. Obviously, '22 was very rapid growth. But at the same time, we are managing the impairment very well either. So it's a head of work from the local and the central team how to balance those things, and it's pretty working very well.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd for anybody who knows consumer finance in Mexico, you'll know that you have to be very, very aware of credit quality there. You have to be very diligent when you bring customers on in terms of credit quality, and you have to be also diligent when you're collecting as well because our consumer segment, particularly in Mexico, if they don't repay their loan, they absolutely have other needs for that money. So you always need to be there talking to them, facilitating those payments and making it easy for them. But the great thing about Mexico is just the scale of the opportunity. And equally, as you just mentioned, the way the business grew last year. Now talking about growth, one of the things that I know people will like to hear about is how you're rebuilding the business post COVID.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. So definitely, known fact that we are collecting out Finland and Spain. So it's very important to point out that it's working well, according to the plan. And this year, we should be finalized this process. So I'm very, very satisfied how it's happening there. And obviously, then our focus is on to the 6 remaining markets where in 2022, important milestone reached, all the markets were profitable.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo every single market.
Povilas Gircys
executiveEvery single market, Mexico, Australia, including, which means that the -- so to say, the weight of the market is changing as well. When the established markets, as we used to call, we're delivering the profit and the new markets were delivering the growth. So now the role is changing. So all the markets are delivering growth and primarily growth coming from Mexico, Australia and the profit contribution is coming from all of those. We intend that it stayed further, obviously. '22 was a great year, seeing the trends in Q1 as well. We see that the customer demand is there and as well, the quality is in the control either. So I'm optimistic that our plan towards returns, RORE of 15% will be reached by 2025.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd just coming on to that. So for anybody who understands IFRS 9, that wonderful and how it works, they'll know that to be growing very strongly and delivering profitability and enhancing profitability is quite an achievement. So just going on to your return statement there, let's talk a bit about what people should expect.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes. Again, set, all the markets now in the profit. So that's what we're aiming for. As well, our priority is not only the top line but as well how managing the costs. So that's a very important part. And obviously, our hub and spoke model is enabling us to do so. So that's another priority for us as a business, how to manage both 2 angles. And we have a robust plan for achieving this 15% of RORE by 2025, and we are trending towards that.
Gerard Ryan
executivePovilas, that's fantastic and great to know that we are heading for those target ROREs. It's very exciting for the business. One of the challenges that I've had on numerous occasions, not so much now, but a few years ago was, why get into digital? You have a fantastic home credit business a huge barriers to entry, and you want to go into a business, digital consumer finance, where there virtually very low barriers to entry, and you could have 100 new competitors in the morning. Now you and I both know that there's a lot more to being a successful consumer finance business than just opening up shop and there are specific ingredients that are required for success.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes, Gerard. And you can't make any compromises here. You can't decide that I'll be stronger there and less maybe be there and prioritize. You need no compromises here, you need to be strong in all the areas. So you need to be very strong with the brand management and how you do the marketing and efficiently. We obviously need to have a very strong and experienced team who knows what they are doing. Very important underwriting procedures, how you adopt to the change, et cetera. Technology needs support, all that to happen and obviously, with all the products that customers need as well needs to be in place. So all that IPF digital has in the pocket. And as I say, there are no compromises here. You need to be strong in everything what you're doing.
Gerard Ryan
executiveYes. And it is so true, and I think a lot of people underestimate that you do need all 5 of these ingredients and you do need them all at the same time to be a successful consumer finance business. Povilas has been fantastic. So just to wrap up for people, if my take on the business, having been involved in it from day one and doing the deal with Rami back in 2015. My view is that we have a fantastic opportunity to continue to grow this business and make it a scale business, in particular, with those new growth markets of Australia, Mexico and Poland, I think a huge opportunity for that. At the same time, the whole piece that you just talked about on the mobile hugely important for us. And with 80% and more of the customer applications coming through are mobile already, that is still going to increase from there. And so the whole mobile wallet piece for us, really a defining characteristic of how this business is going to operate in the future. Now one area we haven't touched on is partnerships. I'm not sure that we're going to have the time today. But essentially, for partnerships here, we're talking about teaming up with some retailers, not for buying our PLA because everything we do, we do it commercially with a view to making a return for our shareholders. But we want to be at the point where some of our customers want to spend their money and provide credit there. And that then would be an alternative source of new customers spreads rather than just through such engine optimization. And then finally, the piece that you mentioned earlier about value-added services being an extra string to our bow in terms of new income streams as we go forward. So taking the whole piece together, I have to say, a fantastic business. We are here to build a better world through financial inclusion. I think you and your team are doing a fantastic job of that. We know exactly who our customers are. We've invested across those 5 key ingredients now over a number of years and all of that is beginning to pay off. So really exciting times for the business. And with that, I think probably a great time to take a few seconds now while we go to our Q&A. And I think Wojciech is going to come up and join us, and we'll answer any questions that people might have had during the presentation. Okay. So if you give us a second, then we get Wojciech up here then. Wojciech thank you for joining us. So Wojciech, I know you've been sitting at your laptop over there. So you're going to hit us with any questions if we've got questions coming in while we were speaking.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveAbsolutely. I'm sure some questions are ready.
Gerard Ryan
executiveOkay. Good, thanks.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveSo the first question, James Hamilton. With all markets being profitable, when you look to extend your markets for digital of new markets?
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo we are very happy in the markets where we're in. Let me just say that to start with. And clearly, Povilas' division took a battering like all other businesses during COVID. And as a group as a whole, we shrank by 1/3, which basically means we've got to grow by 50% just to get back to where we were pre-COVID. So as we think about new markets, I think it's fair to say that we feel like we've got plenty of growth ahead of us both in home credit and particularly in digital in the markets we're in. Now if we were to go beyond, let's say, 2024, I think we would definitely be talking about new markets. And in fact, I think the second half of '24 will probably start to explore some of those options. And one of the things that we've talked about before is where we would go, how we would get into a new country. And for me, I would say that in future, we will always go to new geographies with digital first. And the reason is because it's got a shallower J-curve, it's easier to get customers to come to you digitally as we talked about earlier, with 80% on the mobile phone and through our mobile app. And then later on, to the extent that we thought it was appropriate, we could also then open up home credit after that.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveSo the next question from James and also a similar questions also from James Logan. So we have James Hamilton and James Logan. What share of Mexican profit do you believe digital can reach at maturity and for next 5 years, in next 5 years?
Povilas Gircys
executiveOkay. So let me start from this that Mexico definitely will be the, they've had the biggest market and lead is extending further. At the same time, it is having the highest pricing either. At the same time, the quality impairment is higher and the average ticket comparing to the market is 3x lower. So our expectations to have Mexico having 30%, 40% of the profit.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo basically, the largest customer base -- but the average loan, as you said, I think it's about 1/3 of the average in digital. And we do price that higher because of the risk. But we will make the required oral worries. So I think it will be substantially larger in terms of customers. But you said what 32?
Povilas Gircys
executive30% to 40%.
Gerard Ryan
executive30%, 40%. Yes, that sounds like a good shout.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveSo James Hamilton has 2 more questions. So the first one is, do you see any regulatory risk in the pipeline?
Gerard Ryan
executiveLet me pick that one up because the regulatory risk is the same for digital as it is for the home credit businesses. And I think as most viewers would know we've gone through a huge amount of regulatory change over the past 5 or 6 years. And in practically all of the markets in where we work now, we have caps or some form of controls like that. We had lots of debt-to-income thresholds and things to meet. So we feel like we've been through maximum regulation over the last number of years. There can always be more to come. Now in terms of what's on the horizon, I suppose it's the consumer credit directive is the one that will impact the group going forward. But we feel like we have a good handle on what's coming down the road on that, and that should come sometime later this year. And outside of that, I think the things on the regulatory horizon are de minimis at the moment.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveSo the next question is how substantial markets do you believe Australia can become?
Povilas Gircys
executiveAgain, similarly to Mexico, it's obviously, it's our growth market, and it's proven that it can deliver profit as well. Differently to Mexico, obviously, the pricing is lower impairment low as well. Average ticket is higher. So all in all, we'll have less customers than Mexico, obviously. But the weight the, profit share digital should be around 30%. That's our expectations going forward.
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo I guess, as people think about the group going forward, they could think in terms of profitability, 1/3 give or take, from Mexico, let's say 1/3 for Australia. And then a 1/3, which would be a combination of Poland and the Baltics.
Povilas Gircys
executiveCorrect.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveSo the next question is from Stuart Duncan. How much does digital division will rely on the rest of the group for central services or isn't completely stand-alone as this script on Slide 13?
Gerard Ryan
executiveSo how much does digital rely on? Well, I think basically, what the group provides is the overarching strategy. We put in place the funding. A big part of my role is to ensure that we enable the teams. That means that we identify the capabilities that we need and we staff up appropriately, that we attract the right people in and give them the right training and retain the people we want to retain. So we do all of that overarching stuff that you would expect of a group function. But other than that, I would say, what we have then are each of the individual functions who will come in and ensure that, for instance, that the credit profile across the group is what we want. And so our group Credit Director would interact with your Credit Director and so on. It will be the same when we get to technology that we have an overarching technology strategy and that digital fits within that. But on a day-to-day basis, I think it's fair to say Povilas that you and your hub team provide, I would say, 90% plus of the services that you need.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveSo the next questions. Given the nature of the business, what is the right level of cost income ratio to target?
Povilas Gircys
executiveOkay. So our expectations, okay, some journey to go, but our expectations in the 3 to 4, 5 years journey to reach a sub-50% cost-income ratio. This is what we're aiming for, considering that we have all the components established. It's more of building the scale.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd to be honest, I think that's exactly what we would expect at digital probably, perhaps even a bit more because I know that Gary our CFO has explained that, we're heading for 50% for the group as a whole. And I would like to see digital being a contributor to that. So it's less manually intensive for obvious reasons. So we should be able to get greater efficiencies. So I would say, yes, sub-50% is probably where we aim to be.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveNext question. What learnings have you taken from Spain and Finland?
Gerard Ryan
executiveI suppose the first learning is that it's been quite painful, hasn't? And then it's been painful because those were 2 really great businesses. In particular, Finland was very profitable for us and probably our most established business, great portfolio quality and a great team. But I suppose what both Finland and Spain demonstrates is that we are sticklers for applying our capital to where we're going to make a return for our shareholders. And so when new regulation comes along, if it's absolutely clear that we can't make the required returns that you've set out, we will redeploy our capital elsewhere. The other thing I think that it demonstrates -- and I'm not sure this is a lesson, but it's probably a proving point that we've demonstrated again is that in extremes, if we do need to collect out a portfolio, we can collect to that very successfully. We did that previously in Slovakia, so that was obviously a home credit case. And now we're doing it equally successfully in Finland and Spain. And as you pointed out earlier, Povilas, before we get to the end of this year, we would expect to be pretty much out of those 2 markets and out of them very successfully.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveOkay. So our next question from Gary Greenwood. To what extent is there an opportunity to launch digital products in countries where you currently only have home credit and vice versa on basic that these are markets you're already familiar with?
Gerard Ryan
executiveYes. So I think it's a very relevant question because our view would be that wherever we have home credit, we should be providing digital options because we are proving -- well, you and your team are proving in Mexico, so Nacho, working with David Parkinson, are proving, there's a great symbiotic relationship to be had between the 2 businesses. And now we have Creditea in the Czech Republic, and that's growing nicely for us. It needs to get to scale. So that approves that is going to make the required returns. But our view would be that wherever we have home credit, we should be following on with digital. As I said earlier, if we go into a new market, we would obviously go in with digital first and then follow up with home credit, if that was appropriate.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveOkay. And there is one more question from Gary. So how much do you spend on tech each year? And do you have any major enhancement planned?
Gerard Ryan
executiveDo you know how much we spend on tech, on top of your head?
Povilas Gircys
executiveOn CapEx?
Gerard Ryan
executiveYes.
Povilas Gircys
executiveYes, it's around GBP 4.5 million.
Gerard Ryan
executiveWhich I'd have to say -- so let's round it out at GBP 5 million. So that would be the CapEx. And then you could probably add nearly the same, again, I'd imagine or a little bit less for the OpEx side of things. For the business that you're building, I think that's actually a really great value for money. Given that what we're creating here is our own intellectual property in a lot of cases that we then do this plug and play with other services. So I think for a fully digital business, that's probably quite a reasonable level of expenditure. New enhancements that you might want to mention?
Povilas Gircys
executiveLike we showed today, mobile wallet is the one we are really aiming to scale across the markets we are present in. So that's our main focus now.
Gerard Ryan
executiveAnd then for both digital and for the home credit businesses, clearly, we are investing in tech to improve our own efficiency, so that's cost savings, but also to improve the customer journey. So I think a combination of those is where you will see us spending our money over the coming years. Now the one thing I would like to make clear here is that the spend rate on technology for us as a group and including digital, is absorbed in the run rate of the P&L. So people shouldn't be expecting a massive spike in the run rate for tech spend in the coming years. It will be absorbed and it will be paid for by the ongoing business.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveAnd I have a few questions from James Logan. What is the IFRS 9 drag, what is the underlying profit currently? Is it already 15%?
Gerard Ryan
executiveTo be honest James, I'd have to get out of my calculator, I'd have to get Gary to come here with his calculator and a big spreadsheet to tell you what the drag is. But the reason I mentioned it earlier is that the business is growing so strongly. So in quarter one, it was 17% up, I think, year-on-year. Well, you do get quite a significant drag from the IFRS 9 coming through in that. And as you know, we more or less reserve all of that stuff up front. But we are intent on building the business. But the short answer, Jim, is I can't give you a number in terms of the drag. But I do know if that we were ever to flatline growth, we're not going to do it. But if you were, you would see profits actually increase for a period of time. But we're very happy to be growing strongly and publish business is a really big part of that.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveSo this is a last question. How do you control growth between the digital leaders and the group leaders to keep controlled.
Gerard Ryan
executiveThat one is for me. Well, what we do is we set out more than a year in advance the budget that we're striving to achieve. And in that, there's a lot of negotiation that goes on. And it's a continuous process over a period of months. And we agree what it is that we want to achieve as a business. We work through all the P&Ls that you would expect of that. So top line sales, what we're going to have to pay to get those sales and then how we think the portfolio is going to perform. Clearly, we can apply our costs, and we come out with the PBT. And as we've spoken about in our Q1 results earlier with Gary, we then say this is how we're heading in terms of the required return on equity. Now the negotiation that goes on, goes on between, I suppose, Gary and myself and the divisional leaders like Povilas. And then it goes on at another level, which is between the credit directors and then between the sales directors. So there is a really big, quite intense process that takes place over quite a few months to make sure that we're all aligned and everybody knows what it is they've signed up for what their obligation is and that we at the center then are in a position to supply the resources required to achieve that. So I think it's a very tried and tested process that we have in place to make sure that we achieve that. And clearly, at the back of my mind all the time is what we want to do is build a better world through financial inclusion, but we can only do that if we're providing credit responsibly. And that means not getting people over indebted. So as part of our equation, we're always thinking about the customer end as well. So because there's a lot of demand out there, but we need to meet demand in a sensible way, both in terms of the customer aspect, but also credit quality. And I think we've proven over time, that's probably our core strength.
Wojciech Nesterenki
executiveOkay. So that was the last question.
Gerard Ryan
executiveOkay, Wojciech. Thank you. Povilas, thank you so much for the invite to come here today. Hopefully, everybody who's watching us will have found that really useful and insightful. Just to reiterate that we are always available if you want to do more in-depth offline questions. So Rachel Moran is our Head of Investor Relations, and she is always available to you. This is the third of our insight pieces. There will be more, but they'll all be up on the website. And in the next couple of months, we'll announce what the fourth one will be. So thank you, Povilas. Thank you to you and your team. Thank you for joining us today. If you have any questions, please feel free to just give us a shout. Thank you.
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