International Petroleum Corporation ($IPCO)

Okay. So welcome, everybody, to IPC's 2026 First Quarter Results Update Presentation. I'm William Lundin, the President and CEO. I'm joined today by Christophe Nerguararian, our CFO; as well as Rebecca Gordon, our SVP of Corporate Planning and Investor Relations. So I'll start with the highlights and give an operational update, then Christophe will touch on the financial highlights for the quarter. Following the presentation, we'll take questions, which can be submitted through conference call or via the web online. Jumping into the highlights. We're very pleased to report another solid quarter of operational performance. Production for Q1 was at the top end of the quarterly forecast at 43,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and we're retaining our full year production guidance range of 44,000 to 47,000 boes per day. We had good cost discipline with Q1 operating expenditure coming in at sub USD 18 per barrel of oil equivalent, and we are maintaining guidance for OpEx at USD 18 to USD 20 per barrel. Entering 2026, we set a lean work program and budget as we were assuming a base case price estimate of $65 per barrel Brent. And in response to the improved pricing environment, we're taking advantage of our operatorship and increasing our capital program from USD 122 million to USD 163 million, predominantly to accommodate short-cycle investments across some of our producing assets. The Q1 capital spend was USD 71 million. Operating cash flow generation for Q1 was $68 million, and we revised our full year OCF guidance to USD 220 million to USD 340 million assuming $70 to $90 per barrel Brent for the remainder of 2026. Free cash flow was minus USD 17 million. And we are entering really an inflection point here for the company and there shouldn't be too many more quarters of negative free cash flow going forward with Blackrod first oil expected in the near horizon. Full year free cash flow is expected to be between 0 to USD 120 million positive between $70 to $90 Brent for the rest of 2026. Net debt stands at $513 million, and we expanded our Canadian credit facility during the quarter to USD 250 million. We also extended the maturity of that to 2028. So that gives us an increased headroom and overall flexibility. Our benchmark hedges for WTI and Brent for approximately 40% of our production exposure rolls off in June, leaving us fully exposed to benchmark oil prices from July onwards. We have some WTI/WCS differential hedges and transport/quality-related hedges tied to our Canadian heavy oil exposure as well at attractive levels and some natural gas hedges in place that are currently in the money as well. No material incidents took place during the quarter, we're very pleased to report on. So on to the following slide. As shown on the production graph on Slide 3 here, IPC delivered flat production, really at the high end of our guidance in the first quarter, with overall strong performance across all the assets in the portfolio. So I'll touch on more detail on each of the assets' performance later on in the presentation. Moving on, we're very strongly positioned to deliver within our CMD production forecast range of 44,000 to 47,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Drawing your eyes to the bottom of the production chart on this slide. 2026 is really a story of two tales here with forecast production volumes expected to rise materially at the back end of the year with Blackrod Phase 1 oil production set to come online. In addition to some of the incremental capital adds, fast payback projects we've also added in, this will be contributing more so at the back end of this year for production rates. Our production mix is weighted 60% towards Canadian crude, which is tied to WCS pricing, 10% to Brent-linked production coming from Malaysia and France and the remaining balance of 30% being natural gas from Southern Alberta. And I'd also like to reiterate here that the 44,000 to 47,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day guidance is an annual average, very much an annual average rather than a quarterly average as can be seen on the high and low guidance bands on that bottom left-hand chart. OpEx, so we are maintaining that original Capital Markets Day forecast as we set out in February of $18 to $20 a barrel. First quarter operating cash flow was USD 68 million. The differentials from Brent to WTI, can be seen in the brackets there, was $9 and from WTI to WCS was $14 a barrel. So the Brent to WTI differential was notably high on the back end of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which our Brent-linked production benefits from, of course. Our operating cash flow full year forecast for 2026 is updated to USD 220 million to USD 340 million based on $70 to $90 Brent, and that assumes a $5 differential between Brent and WTI and a $14 differential between WTI and WCS. So a material improvement compared to our CMD forecast and notably more than funding our incremental capital spend program this year with the revised updated operating cash flow generation outlook. Moving on to our CapEx program inclusive of decommissioning, which now stands at a forecast of $163 million. So that's roughly $40 million higher than the original CMD CapEx guidance. The increase is mainly due to accelerated fast payback drilling activity at our Southern Suffield assets in Alberta and in the Paris Basin in France, which I will expand on following asset-specific slides. So we continue to see great progress at Blackrod, and we've updated our 2026 budget outlook for the forecast spend at that asset. Big picture, the multiyear budget for Blackrod Phase 1 growth capital, the first oil is USD 850 million. There has been some minor cost pressure with total costs expected to be approximately USD 857 million, which is less than 1% overall of that original sanction CapEx guidance for the growth capital to first oil. And we're still expecting the project to be delivered in terms of first oil in Q3 of 2026, which is ahead of the original timeline given at the time of sanction back in 2023. Because of this continued acceleration and positive progress, there are some sustaining completion costs as well being pulled forward, which is a positive outcome overall. The free cash flow outlook, we're projecting to generate between 0 to $120 million of positive free cash flow between $70 and $90 Brent for the remainder of 2026. Very exciting to be returning into a positive free cash flow generating position this year with a major boost in free cash flow levels anticipated in 2027 and beyond as Blackrod Phase 1 ramps up and comes onstream. Moving to the share repurchases slide. IPC, of course, has a very strong track record of share repurchases in our brief history as a company. So 77 million shares have been bought back at an average price of SEK 79 or CAD 11 per share, respectively. And that represents around $1.4 billion of value created from the share repurchases when comparing the average share price that those shares were bought back at to our current share price. Notably on the antidilution waterfall, the only time shares were issued in a transaction was for the BlackPearl acquisition back in 2018. All of those shares have been bought back. And our current shares outstanding is just shy of 113 million shares, which is less than the original starting amount of 113.5 million shares. And we've transformed the company to where we are today compared to at inception in 2017. Now we see a 4.5x increase in production levels, 18x increase on our 2P reserves in excess of 20 years, added to our 2P reserve life index in excess of 1 billion barrels of contingent resources, added an overall 4x increase to our NAV compared to that of when the company was formed at the beginning of 2017. So Blackrod. This is a 20-year journey in the making to bring this vision into reality by unlocking a Phase 1 commercial development. I had the privilege of being at site at the end of April. This is a world-class SAGD plant with a best-in-class operational staff. It's a compact site with a small footprint for the CPF and nearby well pad facility tie-ins. This asset is going to propel the company to new levels, and it's been a fantastic journey going from sanction through to development and on to startup now with rotating equipment well in service at this point in time. Original guidance for this project, again, back in 2023 when it was sanctioned, called for first oil in late 2026 and growth capital up into that point of USD 850 million. We achieved first steam ahead of our original forecast, resulting in a schedule improvement which was announced at the beginning of this year, with first oil expected in Q3 2026. So operations continue to progress well, and we're strongly positioned to deliver within this accelerated timeline. Cumulative spend as at the end of Q1 from the beginning of 2023 on the growth capital is USD 842 million with some minor works remaining on the final boiler tie-in as well as well pad facilities as we expect to deliver this project overall in line with the original growth capital guidance to first oil. I really couldn't be more proud of our multidisciplinary IPC teams as well as the vendors utilized in this major undertaking, and we're especially pleased that there has been no material safety incidents under IPC's supervision as prime contractor of the site. Excellent delivery overall and stewardship of this project to date. So Blackrod valuation. Again, this is a true game-changing asset for IPC. We have regulatory approval up to 80,000 barrels of oil per day with over 1.45 billion barrels of recoverable resource. Phase 1 targets 30,000 barrels per day and 311 million barrels of 2P reserves. And the economics as at the beginning of this year, based on our conservative reserve auditor price deck, is USD 1.4 billion of net present value using a 10% discount rate and approximately a $47 WTI breakeven. As you can see on the figure on the right-hand side of the slide, this is a massive uniform sandstone reservoir. It's contiguous and homogeneous, lending to a very much predictable and scalable product potential that's validated through the 15 years that it's been under pilot operation testing. In the lower graph here, the dark wedge on the bar chart reflects what is booked in 2P reserves and carried within our valuation. The light blue component of that bar chart is the contingent resources and represents upside to our business. Moving on to our producing assets. Our current flagship oil-producing asset at Onion Lake Thermal delivered stable production through Q1. We also did some 4D seismic work at the beginning of the year and are reviewing that data to hone in on some additional potential infill targets on existing producing drainage patterns. And also to note on that schematic on the right, H Pad is the next main drainage pattern to be developed in the sequence. Moving on to the Suffield area assets. So very much predictable and low decline production, the Suffield area assets, which delivered around 23,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day through Q1. We're very excited to be redeploying some capital into these assets, where we've sanctioned a 4-well production drilling campaign within the Basal Quartz area, just west of the Suffield block. Production from France and Malaysia for Q1 was in excess of 5,000 barrels of oil per day. We had some incremental activity that's also been sanctioned now in France. We look to drill 3 sidetracks in the FAB field and 1 sidetrack in the Villeperdue field. So very exciting to be drilling again in France. And in Malaysia, we also plan to do an operational activity of workover using a hydraulic workover unit later this year on our A13 well. So with that, I will hand it over to Christophe to go through the financial highlights. Thank you.

Thank you very much, Will. Good morning, everyone. So indeed, a good quarter with production at the high end of our Q1 guidance at 43,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. And of course, during this first quarter, when the situation happened between Iran, the U.S. and Israel, the oil prices increased massively from the beginning of March. And so you really have a relatively high average Dated Brent oil price for the whole quarter, in excess of $81 per barrel, but that was really two sides of the story with lower oil prices in January and February and much higher in March. So overall, that really helped generate on that basis strong operating cash flows and EBITDA for the quarter at USD 68 million and USD 64 million. As we guided before and as most of our investors know, the capital expenditure in 2026 was always expected to be much front-loaded, and so you can see a disproportionate portion of the CapEx spent during this quarter translating into a free cash flow of negative USD 17 million. And it depends where oil prices will be on average for Q2, but it's fair to assume that the free cash flow may be negative again in Q2. But from that point onwards, we're expecting to turn the corner and to be again back into free cash flow territory for the second half, depending on where first oil kicks in at Blackrod. So USD 13 million of net profit for this quarter. The net debt increased during this first quarter by USD 30 million. Again, it's fair to assume that this net debt would increase again in the second quarter and from that point on progressively. Depending on where oil prices stand, we should see some deleverage from Q3 or from Q4. But certainly this year, we should start to see some accelerated deleveraging as the Blackrod production ramps up over time. Realized prices, so I mentioned, were strong. And I think it's interesting, a bit sad at the same time, but interesting to see that the physical market is quite dislocated. And so the Dated Brent has been trading at between $5 up to $30 premium on top of the future or the financial Brent, if you wish. And when we lifted our cargo in Malaysia, the last one in March, we had a good premium. And for the future June cargo, which we're going to lift in Malaysia, we can see that the physical market is very tight because the premium we can realize there are very, very high. So you can see we sold in March a cargo in Malaysia at USD 110 per barrel, while on average for the quarter, Dated Brent was USD 81. The Brent-WTI differential widened a bit at $9 and the WTI/WCS differential stood at negative $14 for the quarter. We're continuing in Canada to sell our heavy oil on parity or very close to the WCS. Gas prices were actually okay during this first quarter. But overall, the market again is quite disconnected between the U.S., and the Canadian market has been a new reality for the Canadian gas prices over the last 18 months now for the lack of infrastructure and communicating infrastructure between the Canadian gas pipeline network and the U.S. market. So you can see that we realized CAD 2.5 per Mcf during this first quarter. But the forecast is showing for the summer months lower gas prices, which is still a negative to IPC given that we are producing more gas than we're consuming at Onion Lake or that we will consume in the following quarters at Blackrod. Now the positive in the long run is that because we are consuming gas at Blackrod, it will be a relatively cheap feedstock gas going forward. In terms of financial results, it's interesting to compare '25 and '26. We had during this first quarter '26 similar production and overall revenues between the first quarter '26 and '25. Some of the difference between the 2 quarters in '26 and '25 was coming from the fact that we lost $10 million of hedges -- hedged losses in this first quarter because we had hedged around 40% of our WTI and Brent exposure at between $62 and $68 per barrel. And of course, we've been losing in the month of March mainly. And given that we are still hedged until the end of June at those around 40% level at current prices, we can expect to make a hedging loss of around USD 30 million during the second quarter. But I think it's important to flag as well that beyond the end of June, we no longer have any benchmark hedged. So we are totally exposed to the Brent and the WTI prices going forward into the second half of 2026. Looking at the operating costs. So we were below during this first quarter as a result of strong production level and relatively low electricity and gas prices. We can expect higher operating cost per barrel going into the second quarter with a bit of a slightly lower production in the second quarter. In the third quarter, when we're going to move progressively into commercial production at Blackrod, we're going to register some OpEx which will be a bit higher in the first months of operation. But you can see that as soon as the Blackrod production ramps up in the fourth quarter, the OpEx per barrel will progressively reduce, and we would expect that trend to continue into 2027. You can see the netback on the following graph with gross margin of close to $18 per barrel and operating cash flow at $17.5 and EBITDA at $16.5 per barrel of oil equivalent of netback. Looking at the evolution of our net debt. So we increased our net debt this quarter by USD 30 million given the reasonably high CapEx of $71 million we spent during the year. So we spent more CapEx than the level of operating cash flow. This is going to reverse in Q2 and even more so in the second half of this year. In terms of financial items, it's sort of a steady state now in the second half. Last year when we refinanced our bonds, we had some exceptional and one-off fees that we paid as part of that bond refinancing. From now on, it's going to be much more stable. And just to mention that the foreign exchange loss you can see here of $6.5 million during this quarter is a noncash item. Otherwise, the G&A remains reasonably stable and flat at around USD 4 million per quarter. So looking at the financial results. We generated net revenues of $173 million, netting a cash margin of $68 million and gross profit of USD 37 million, which net of the financial items, tax and tax elements yielded a net profit of USD 13 million for the quarter. The balance sheet has continued to evolve since we sanctioned the Blackrod project. As you expect, our level of cash has reduced and our level of net debt increased over the last 3 years. But again, we are almost touching distance from reversing this trend certainly going into 2027 but as well going into the second half of this year. And I will let Will conclude this presentation.

Thank you very much, Christophe. So in summary, very exciting to be ramping up activity really across all regions of operations. Q1 capital came in at USD 71 million and the full year outlook is $163 million now, really leveraging our operatorship and increasing our production exposure to the high commodity pricing environment that we're seeing. We're well positioned to deliver within our production guidance, and our operating costs remain under control. Operating cash flow generation was robust for Q1 at USD 68 million. And the outlook for the full year is $220 million to $340 million. We have in excess of USD 150 million of undrawn liquidity headroom. There are no material environmental or safety incidents that took place in the first quarter. And with that, I'm happy to pass it over to the operator to begin questions, and you can also submit your questions online via the web. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] We'll now take our first question from Teodor Nilsen of SB1 Markets.

Will and Christophe, first question there is around the small CapEx increase you announced. I just wanted to know what is driven by cost increases and what is driven by higher activity. And second part of that question is related to the activity increase. By how much should we assume that the exit rate production this year increases as a result of the accelerated investments? So that's the first two questions. And third question, that is on share repurchases. You've, of course, been very successful doing that for the past 2 years as you discussed. But you haven't been doing any repurchase. You have not done any material repurchases the past few months. So I just wanted a background for that. Do you think the share price approached a reasonable level? Or are there other reasons for why you have reduced the buybacks?

Thanks very much, Teodor, for the questions. I'll head those off. First one being the small CapEx increase. So we had an adjustment of $122 million to $163 million for capital expenditure for 2026. So that $40 million some-odd increase, the lion's share of that is for capital activity in France and Canada. So we're going to be doing 4 sidetracks drilling program in France for approximately $15 million and also in Southern Alberta at our Suffield area assets, more on the more recently acquired in 2023 Core 4 property. We're also going to be drilling 4 wells there. So the total combined amount is around $23 million when you add the France plus the Brooks-related activity that we're undertaking. I also touched on the slight cost increase at Blackrod there as well, which was expanded on throughout the presentation. But really the vast majority of the cost increases are deliberate cost increases here to increase the activity for production contributing projects. And so that production increase for those 2 projects that I had noted, which will be more back-end weighted this year in terms of the production contribution, we expect to see in excess of 1,000 barrels per day on average delivered for 2027 from those 2 programs. So very attractive cost per flowing barrel metrics to undertake those capital activities and really a part of our whole strategy as well over the past couple of years while we've been accommodating the growth capital for Blackrod as well as buying back our shares at very cheap levels. Some of the capital activity that's been ripe and ready to go across our existing producing assets, we've elected to wait until more constructive oil prices present themselves. And here we are now. And that is the reason for why we've kind of prioritized the incremental capital going towards production contributing activity right now as opposed to share buybacks. We do have the flexibility to restart share buybacks, where we have the NCIB activated up until December of this year. We are steadfast on focusing on getting Blackrod on to production here. We continue to monitor market conditions and overall liquidity headroom. Safe to say we are very strongly positioned, and it's something that we're going to continue to monitor as the year progresses here in terms of restarting shareholder returns.

[Operator Instructions] We will now move on to our next question from Mark Wilson of Jefferies.

Excellent progress as ever and good look with the final steps in Blackrod, obviously. I thought the most interesting area now is the gas side of things in Canada. You mentioned that your hedges are rolling off for WTI. Just remind us where that stands for the gas, particularly as that is looking weaker in terms of infrastructure. And whether you think there's any longer-term impact from the M&A we've seen into Canadian gas, Shell coming in for ARC and further phases of Canada LNG. Just be interested to hear that.

Yes. Thank you, Mark, and very good questions. So I skipped the table on hedging as Will touched on it already in the opening slide. But you're absolutely right. It was very interesting to see Shell going after ARC, which is a large gas producer, and so this is just speculation at this stage, but probably paves the way or at least increases the chances and the odds that Shell would go and try to expand the LNG facility on the West Coast of Canada, North of Vancouver. And that's a fairly obvious move when you look at the massive arbitrage you can see between local domestic gas prices and international gas prices. So I think the projection in the very short term is to probably still have reasonably low gas prices onshore Western Canada, but the prospects of having more demand from that LNG Canada plant going forward has probably increased over the last few weeks. In terms of hedging, we have 50,000 GJ a day of gas hedged at CAD 2.7 per GJ or CAD 2.8 per McF. So unfortunately, that's probably going to be in the money. And so you know us. We remain very opportunistic. If we see any gas prices hike in the forward curve, you should fairly expect us to seize that kind of opportunities. And so that was your main question, around gas prices. No, you're absolutely right, that in terms of WTI or Brent exposure, the hedges are rolling off at the end of this quarter, at the end of June. And so we'll be fully exposed going forward to what looks to be reasonably constructive oil prices going forward.

Sorry, just to add to that in terms of being a great signal in terms of Shell increasing its exposure in Canada just for the upstream overall Canadian landscape there. And now with that acquisition, Shell has secured roughly 3/4 of its feed gas requirements for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 of LNG Canada. So it certainly bodes well and signaling for an FID of Phase 2, but we're still yet to see that for that LNG project on the West Coast of B.C. there.

Got it. Okay. And is it worth mentioning on the broader Canada side of things, what was it I heard recently, is it a sovereign wealth fund? Or is it an infrastructure fund? And any implications?

Yes. That was Mark Carney, and he said a sovereign wealth fund. The extent of the details are yet to be understood in terms of where the funding is going to come from to be able to do that. But that is the headline that Mark Carney announced, was a sovereign wealth fund.

Okay, okay. And then just one last point. I might have missed it in Teodor's question. But the short cycle in Suffield, that's obviously targeting liquids, I imagine.

Yes, oil.

Okay. Very good. Congratulations again. Looking forward to reading the rest of the news in the year as it ramps up.

Exactly, thank you.

Much appreciate it. Thanks, Mark.

Thank you. We have no further questions in the queue. I'll now hand it over to the company for online questions.

Okay. Thanks, operator. So we've got a couple of questions here. Maybe we can just start with a bit of information on the short cycle, Will. Just a couple of questions on Ferguson and whether we have opportunity there to put some rigs in or maybe look at additional drilling there.

Yes, for sure. So Ferguson, there's quite a few opportunities in terms of drilling as well as recompletion, refracking-related activity as well that we are looking into. Some of the activity is likely to be an operating expenditure-related item. So that is something that we do plan to do in terms of a few wells and recompletions on a few wellbores there. So look to see some minor production boost coming from the asset towards the tail end of the year.

Okay. Very good. And then another question here. I mean, obviously, there's a lot of interest on Phase 2. Is there any intention to bring that forward now? Or how are we feeling about the timing given the oil price?

Yes. I think the liquidity position as we've stated for quite some time now is going to change quite rapidly as Blackrod Phase 1 sets to come onstream in the back half of this year, and we look to generate significant free cash flow in the year of 2027 even at more modest oil prices. And if these pricing levels are to hold through 2027, it's going to put us in a very, very good place to look to continue pursuing our key capital allocation strategic pillars in terms of organic growth, shareholder returns and also staying opportunistic towards M&A. But for Phase 2 specifically, our future expansion potential at Blackrod behind the scenes is definitely something that's being worked up. But of course, we remain very, very much focused on successfully completing and bringing Phase 1 online from an oil-producing standpoint.

Great. Thanks. And then just a quick question on capital structure, Christophe. Could you explain the increase in the RCF, why you went for that?

Yes. Well, if you look back at what IPC has been doing as a corporate, we try to raise and improve liquidity when we don't need it. So it's been a constant discussion with our banking partners and banking friends. We enjoy very good support from Canadian banks these days. There was the opportunity to increase the Canadian revolving credit facility from CAD 250 million to USD 250 million, which we just did and extended the maturity up to May 2028 as we do every year. So it's all positive for no other specific purpose than having ample liquidity.

Fantastic. Thanks. Will, just a question on regulatory framework, so in Canada, the U.S. and our other operating jurisdictions. Have we seen any changes post the Iran war in those sort of regulatory frameworks or anticipate anything to come?

No, there hasn't been any changes regulatory-wise in the stable jurisdictions where we operate and we have production operations taking place. And specifically in Canada also, they have a sliding framework based on oil prices for the royalties. So no changes expected there or elsewhere within the portfolio at this time.

Okay. Fantastic. And then maybe one final question here. What would be your priority post Blackrod complete in terms of organic growth or shareholder returns or buybacks?

Yes. The infamous question, I think. The punch line here is that we have the ability to do it all, and we look to strike the right cadence in terms of pulling forward organic growth and continuing to screen opportunities in the M&A landscape and balancing shareholder returns as well. And so I think we're going to be really strongly positioned to deliver on all three of those fronts. And the main lens, of course, will be to maximize shareholder value in our pursuit of that capital allocation strategy.

Okay. Fantastic. That's what we have time for today. That's all our questions. So I leave it to you to close, Will.

Excellent. Thanks very much, Rebecca, and thanks, everyone, for tuning in to our first quarter results update presentation. We're very, very strongly positioned, and It's a super exciting time for the company with the next major catalyst being Blackrod first oil. So that will come in due course very soon here. So thanks, everyone, and take care.

Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.