Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 25, 2021

New York Stock Exchange US Financials Capital Markets conference_presentation 32 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#1

Good morning, everyone. Let's get started. This is Craig Siegenthaler from Crédit Suisse, and it's my pleasure to introduce Allison Dukes. Allison joined Invesco last year and is the firm's CFO. Prior to joining Invesco, Allison was CFO of the bank, SunTrust. Good morning, Allison. It's great to have you here with us.

Allison Dukes

executive
#2

Good morning, Craig. Great to be here. Thank you.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#3

So first, a little background at Invesco. Invesco is a diverse global asset manager with more than $1.3 trillion in AUM, offices across 26 countries and more than 8,000 employees. The firm is generally grouped in with the traditional asset managers, but it has a large ETF business with PowerShares, which is the fourth largest in the world and also a $100 billion private markets business.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#4

Let's begin. So Allison, I wanted to start on net flows. Invesco finished 2020 with a lot of momentum, 6 consecutive months of positive flows and flows were again strong and positive in January. Honestly, we did not see this coming in early 2000s. So congratulations on its success. But can you talk about what drove the improvement?

Allison Dukes

executive
#5

Sure. Well, thank you. I'd say, look, despite the challenges of last year, the firm really continued to execute on our long-term strategy. And that's a strategy that was put in place long before I joined. I'm just coming up on my 1-year anniversary. And what I can say is there was real commitment to staying the course despite some of the challenges over the last year. Invesco's been very successful over the past decade in investing really ahead of shifts in client demand, which put us in a position to take advantage of some key industry tailwinds. Our investment in these capabilities and really the focus on our clients is what's produced the good momentum in the business that became really more visible, I think, as the year progressed in 2020. And I tell you, I think we have a very strong foundation as we move into 2021. You certainly saw January flows. We finished 2020, as you said, with 6 consecutive months of net long-term inflows. January net long-term inflows were $13.3 billion, so a very strong month and marked the seventh consecutive month of net positive flows for the firm. And I'd say that the trends that you saw in the fourth quarter and really over the second half of 2020, those are really some of the trends that we continue to see as drivers in the first few months of this year as well. And those would include strong long-term ETF net inflows, some active flows across both our balanced and our fixed income capabilities, continued real strong funding and replenishment inside of the institutional pipeline. And that's heavily influenced by our solutions effort, as we've highlighted on our last couple of calls. And then we continue to see significant flows in Asia Pacific. It's not only our China JV. Our China JV has been a very strong driver of flows for us, but it's also Japan and other areas of the region. I should tell you the drivers of our flows for the last 7 months have been very broad-based and they're solid. We're really seeing strong investment performance in our high demand capabilities, which is terrific. And we do think we've turned the corner. We think that the investments we've made in the business have positioned us well for growth going forward.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#6

So Allison , that was sort of what got you to hear. As we look forward, do you think this trajectory of positive net flows is sustainable throughout 2021?

Allison Dukes

executive
#7

I do. I think, as I said, a lot of the drivers that we're seeing are broad-based and they're solid as some of the drivers I just noted. I don't think that they are episodic. Look, there are many external factors that always influence flows. But in terms of what we can control and the influence we have over our end performance, I feel very good about where we are.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#8

So let's move on to expenses for a moment. Last year, Invesco announced a $200 million net expense cut initiative. Can you talk about why you launched this initiative? And what is its objective?

Allison Dukes

executive
#9

Yes. Look, we saw an opportunity really to further optimize our business model. Invesco had fully integrated Oppenheimer just prior to my arrival. And through that integration, there were about $500 million of savings that were identified and executed on. And I'd say that sometimes after you integrate a very large firm, like Oppenheimer, and you really absorb it into the system, you see an opportunity to go even further to think about your expense base, even a little bit differently in your organizational structure differently. And that was part of the driver. The other part of the driver was really thinking about the top line and some of the trends we were experiencing, of course, in the first half of last year and making sure we put ourselves in a place to be very nimble and be very thoughtful about our expense base that is designed to support a top line that can move in a lot of different directions. So we launched this strategic evaluation in the back half of 2020 with a focus across 4 key areas of our expense base. The first is our organizational model. The second was our real estate footprint. The third area is really around our management of our third-party spend. And then finally, our technology and operations efficiency. And it's really about using the scale of our platform, our broad and diversified platform to create operating leverage. So through the strategic evaluation, we anticipate creating a net $200 million savings in our expense base. Really, again, designed to enhance our operating leverage. And I'll come back to that a few times because it's really scale and the volume of flows that are the other elements that add to that operating leverage going forward. And then finally, at the net savings, we are looking through this effort to create further capacity to continue to invest in our key growth areas that are really aligned with our strategic plan. Those include areas that I'm sure we'll talk about today across ETF, fixed income, China, our solutions effort and as well as functional capabilities like data and analytics. So we're really looking to structurally improve our expense base while also creating additional capacity to reinvest in these growth areas.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#10

Allison, if $200 million is the net number, how large is the gross number? And where are those cuts coming from?

Allison Dukes

executive
#11

Yes. So $200 million is the net number, which means, yes, we will have additional savings that we will identify beyond that amount. That won't be a number we'll disclose because, again, we're looking to reinvest a lot of that capacity in these key growth areas. And it's really about creating that capacity to meaningfully make investments in these areas of the business that we think will drive further growth. So the $200 million is attach to discrete initiatives. As I said, it comes across 4 buckets. Some of that is compensation and organizationally model driven. Those compensation elements really were either through efforts that were announced last fall and completed last fall. In other cases, it's really about realigning some of our nonclient-facing workforce to support key areas of growth. And then repositioning some of those nonclient-facing folks to lower cost work locations. Then some of the other savings are going to come from occupancy as we look at our real estate footprint. Even prior to COVID, we had an opportunity to think about our real estate footprint, think about where we really need offices, who needs to be in some high cost locations, who could be in some lower cost locations and how do we really optimize that. Of course, we, like every other firm, thinking about our real estate footprint through a different lens now, which is what does that future of work look like and how many people will be back in the office. And I don't have great answers to this, but I will tell you, we're under active evaluation right now to try to understand what kind of opportunities does that create for us as we have a lot of people who, in some cases, don't want to come back to the office, don't want to return to an environment where they're commuting. And we've proven to ourselves, we've proven to each other, that we're able to work in this virtual world. And I do think that creates a little bit of flexibility going forward, and we can really think about our savings through that lens.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#12

So Allison, you hit on this briefly earlier. But I want to hit on operating leverage. So with 75% of saving expected to be delivered this year combined with positive organic growth and market appreciation, the risk of potential to harvest a lot of operating leverage, specially over the next 12 month. How do you think about future improvements to your operating margin?

Allison Dukes

executive
#13

Yes. Look, if you continue to have that kind of market growth, as you noted, that we have this year and certainly, the positive flows that we think we can sustain, you're absolutely right. That expense effort, combined with a lot of really good tailwinds could create exactly that, a very strong operating margin improvement in this particular year. We're not focused on just 1 year though. As we thought about this effort, it really was about creating, really rightsizing the expense base to the top line that we have and creating an expense base that can be variablized where it needs to be and that is really built to support a variety of operating environments. And I think that's a really important point in all of this. At the industry level, we all see investors continue to shift to passive and a lot of churn within active. And we've participated in that trend as well. We see very strong demand for our passive capabilities and some of our lower fee capabilities, and that puts pressure on that revenue yield. And so as we think about what that reality is and wanting to participate in these broad trends and make sure that we have that broad and diversified platform so we can capture that client demand across the spectrum, we have to think about our expense base being rightsized to that environment. So despite a decline in net revenue yield or the pressure that might exist as we see strong demand for our passive capabilities, we want to be able to make sure that we're participating across that breadth and that we are creating capacity to reinvest in a lot of those high growth capabilities. And again, I'll come back to where you started, which is it really is about operating leverage and not just about net revenue yield and positioning ourselves to really improve operating margin or in more challenging years, maybe like what we experienced last year to really sustain operating margin even when we've got a lot of downward pressure.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#14

So Allison, let's pivot into capital management. So Invesco has been building its capital base and de-leveraging following the Oppenheimer merger. Could you remind us of your cap return priorities for 2021?

Allison Dukes

executive
#15

Sure. I'd say we're very prudent as we think about capital management, and our priorities really haven't changed from 2020. First and foremost, our priority is to continue to reinvest in the business. I'll tell you, I think that's where shareholders are going to see the strongest returns from us is our ability to continue to reinvest in our own business. Second, we're very focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet, a balance sheet that has the flexibility and the liquidity for any operating environment. Third, creating sustainable dividend growth, and that is one that is a near-term absolute priority and opportunity. And then ultimately, resuming share repurchases. And all of this, I'd say, over the longer term, we do expect to improve net leverage. We'll do that first and foremost, by growing EBITDA. Leverage is obviously a function of EBITDA as much as it is the capital stack. And we are continuing to demonstrate that growth in EBITDA and focus on growing EBITDA, which will create that flexibility we need to find other opportunities to de-lever, and we're going to continue to look at ways to optimize our cash and our capital positions globally.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#16

So as a follow-up, when do you think Invesco could be back in a position to be buying back meaningful stock?

Allison Dukes

executive
#17

I think, as I said, we'll focus on these priorities in the order that we just talked about and really investing in the business and delivering the best returns we can for our shareholders through that first. But with that balance in mind, our priorities do include modestly increasing the dividend and then ultimately, resuming share repurchases. So I'd say we'd probably look first to the opportunity to increase the dividend. We made some hard decisions around our dividend almost a year ago, and performance has improved significantly, and we are focused on returning the right level of capital to our shareholders. We do that first through the dividend. But I think we'll look at resuming share repurchases over the medium term at a point that makes a little bit more sense.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#18

So now let's talk about something a little more exciting, the growth initiatives. So we really like your new Slides 5 and 6 in the deck, which really outlines the growth initiative, maybe that was your idea. But it goes through ETFs, private markets in Asia. And for those that are new to Invesco, I was wondering if you could just sort of walk us through these growth initiatives.

Allison Dukes

executive
#19

Sure. First of all, I'm going to give my IR team the credit for those great slides. And I'm glad that you like them and to find them helpful. I think that they are very helpful, too. And I think they've created the catalyst for us to have more meaningful conversations with a lot of our investors and potential investors around really the growth drivers that we have at Invesco. I think it's really important for us to focus on those growth drivers. I think we've talked about a lot of these areas, as I mentioned them, through the lens of our strategic evaluation. And this is an area where we intend to continue to focus across these different areas, ETFs, fixed income, China, our solutions capabilities, our alternative capabilities and global equities as well. Now maybe spending a little bit of time on each one of those. With respect to ETFs, we are the fourth largest provider globally, and our capabilities span active capabilities, passive strategies and the ESG spectrum as well. We are continuing to develop new products in this space. You saw the launch in the fall of our QQQ innovation suite. And we also announced in December the launch of our first active nontransparent ETF. We have a strong global alternatives platform. And within that platform, we really are focused on growing our private markets business. And those -- the private markets businesses are really led by both our market-leading real estate and our bank-led businesses. Very focused on our active fixed income and global equities. Those are big areas of opportunity for us. Our offerings are very well positioned there, and we see strong investment performance and high client demand for those capabilities. Already mentioned solutions a couple of times. That's -- we've really seen the contribution of our solutions efforts through the institutional pipeline. As we've noted in the last few quarters, our solutions capabilities are really driving maybe about half the institutional mandates that are in there. And we see that clients really value this service. It's really the opportunity we have to bring the full power of our comprehensive set of capabilities and services to clients, and that's going to continue to be a priority for us. We have a terrific leadership position in Greater China, and we will continue to invest there. We've been managing dedicated Chinese product and -- through Greater China for nearly 40 years now. We've really seen the benefits of our early mover advantage in the China onshore market with our joint venture, which was the first of its kind in the industry, and that was established almost 2 decades ago. And I should note that really the majority of our investment capabilities are aligned with those areas of growth that were on that Slide 5 that you pointed to in our fourth quarter earnings release. Our investment performance is strong in those capabilities, more competitive, and so we're really well positioned for growth going forward.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#20

So Allison, I wanted to go a little bit deeper into PowerShares. So I know you highlighted the new active ETF that you launched and also the QTOQ suite that you launched last year. But when you look across the entire ETF suite that you have today, which ETF products you think the most important for future growth?

Allison Dukes

executive
#21

Yes. The ETFs are, like I said, a very important driver for us. As I noted, we're the fourth largest provider globally. Our market share is around 5%, a little bit higher in the United States, a little bit higher than 5%; a little bit lower than 5% in EMEA. In both markets, we do continue to increase our market share. Our smart beta ETFs are about 25% of our total ETF suite. And so it is a very important component of our ETF capabilities. As I think about some of the drivers and where we see really good growth. I mean, look, in the fourth quarter, our net long-term inflows into our ETFs, excluding the QQQs, was about $4.7 billion. So a very positive driver for us. Of that $4.7 billion, about half almost was into our S&P 500 equal way ETF. That has been a very good performer. But I'd also point to our ESG capabilities in our ETF suite. About, I don't know, $1.5 billion or so of that $4.7 billion came -- probably a little north of that actually came through our Invesco solar ETF and our clean energy ETF. Those are -- have been terrific growth drivers. And I'd also note -- those are some of our higher fee ETF capabilities. Those -- both have published management fee rates of around 50 basis points. So as I think about the demand for our ETF capabilities, I think about our ability to marry our ESG capabilities with that and actually drive good, strong revenue growth. We're very bullish on our ETF suite overall.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#22

All right. Let's turn over to ESG. So ESG implementation is now probably the cost of doing business and asset management. It's something we think everybody needs to be ready for, especially in Europe. Can you share with us how Invesco has adapted its business and what ESG products are expected to grow?

Allison Dukes

executive
#23

Sure. So yes, look, we continue to invest and grow in these capabilities like many others. And our focus is really on integrating these capabilities into our broad investment approach. So if I think about a narrow definition of ESG. And so very clear mandates that are very dedicated ESG mandates across a variety of strategies or geographies. I'd say we manage about $35 billion in ESG capabilities -- or excuse me, ESG AUM. Our focus is not just on the narrow mandates, but how do we continue to broaden that and integrate that into everything we do. So maybe thinking about it across the different demand spectrums. From an institutional perspective, we've definitely seen an increase in our client-based interest for ESG solutions and some bespoke approaches. And we continue to work with our institutional clients to implement those. From a retail perspective, we are the second largest provider of ESG ETFs in the United States. We have about 7 ETFs -- ESG ETFs, lot of acronyms, that account for about $9 billion in AUM for us right now. Our goal is that by the end the PAUSE we have 100% of our investment processes broadly and systematically incorporating ESG policies practices and proprietary tools into everything they do. We're going to be especially focused on proxy voting and clean technology. So our principal activity right now is really embedding and systematically integrating the ESG capabilities and mindsets across all of our strategies around the world. And we're pretty well into it at this point. I'd say we have different parts of the world that are at different stages. And the model's really going to continue to be investment led, but incorporated into each investment team specific process will have a global ESG team supporting them behind the scenes and really providing that expertise in the comprehensive set of tools.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#24

So let's talk about another growth initiative, the private markets business. And I know you hit on real estate and loans. But this is a very profitable business for you. The management fee rates are very high. There's performance fees. And I also think this business tends to get overlooked and maybe it's a little bit of hidden inside of Invesco. So I was wondering if you could spend a little bit more time, walk us through the different businesses in a little more detail and talk about its growth prospects.

Allison Dukes

executive
#25

Sure. It is a little bit hidden, and our focus there has been very organically focused. Our growth there has come really through organic efforts. Our private market capabilities are the largest part of the alternative platform. So our alternative platform is around $176 billion, and the private capabilities are probably close to about $100 billion of that. So growing alternatives and growing our private markets capabilities inside of that is one of our key strategic priorities. And we do continue to be really focused on how do we execute this in a very balanced and disciplined way and scale mature products while also investing in some of our key new growth areas. Our direct real estate business, as I noted, or I should say, just a real estate business is one where we continue to see a lot of organic growth opportunities, especially as we look to expand our access to some unique opportunities with our retail clients. Our strategy there inside of real estate has 3 pillars, which is continue to focus on mature products, which would include global open to end core direct strategies; bringing high growth capabilities, products to scale, which would include some specialty real estate funds; and then supporting new organic growth opportunities through retail-targeted products. You noted our performance fees. And in the fourth quarter, we did record performance fees of around $78 million, almost $50 million of that actually came from our real estate business. So it is a meaningful contribution to our profitability inside of the fourth quarter. I'll give the caveat that performance fees vary by contract, and they're very difficult to predict. And so the fourth quarter was a terrific one, not one we would necessarily expect to see again in the first quarter. But I do think it demonstrates the ability of these businesses and the ability we have to generate fees through those products that are very impactful. On the private credit side, that platform is actually one of the largest senior loan managers in the world. We have over $32 billion of AUM inside of that platform. And we continue to look for opportunities to add more depth to our offerings around credit and extending the credit capabilities off the platform that we have. Our growth strategy in both of these areas has really been to continue to organically build to get to critical mass in this space.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#26

So at this point, I just want to check and let the audience know if they have any questions. You can see Karim my Team's e-mail address, shoot him an e-mail because we're about 2/3 away through. So I'm going to continue here, but I just want to remind everyone if there's any questions out there. Allison, I didn't want to let you go without talking about technology and digital. So I wanted to ask you how recent technology advances changed how investment products are now distributed today? And also how Invesco's digital platforms have fared, including Jemstep, against this backdrop?

Allison Dukes

executive
#27

No question that the acceleration sort of the digital agenda over the past year has changed the way in which we distribute clients. I think it's changed the way we work across the world in every way. As we all know, it's almost becoming a little bit cliché, but without question, it's accelerated and validated. The path that we thought was before us and in some respects, we were already on, and we made the full transition, as many others did, but we did it in a way that really seemed seamless. Our transition to a virtual distribution process was almost seamless, and it was highly efficient. And we find that it yields very productive forms of client engagement. We've eliminated travel. We simplify logistics. We're all wondering how much of this is sustainable and how much we actually all want to get back together. I think the answer is it's a little bit of a mix. We won't forever stay working behind a computer. But what we've demonstrated is it's possible. And in doing so, we can really take the opportunity to further invest in our digital engagement tools and really the training for our distribution teams and for our clients so that we can continue to operate in a way that is really seamless and efficient, both for us and our clients. We wouldn't do it if it weren't seamless for our clients, but to the extend it's the way our clients want to be served, we are going to be ready to continue to serve them in that way. As reopenings occur, we expect virtual meetings to probably continue to be the preferred form of meetings for most of our adviser-based clients, especially where there are already existing relationships. That won't necessarily be the case where there aren't existing relationships. I do think there is going to be that strong desire to get back in front of people and build relationships. But nonetheless, we're going to see efficiencies and benefits with clients that are going to translate, I think, into new client engagement models of the future. Let me shift then to the second part of your question, which is around our digital capabilities and our digital platform, and that would include Jemstep and TeleFlow in addition to some of our other digital portfolio rebalancing and cash flow remodeling capabilities that we acquired over the last few years. We do continue to have a high conviction view that technology is going to be a critical enabler in client engagement. We continue to invest and are dedicated to investing in our digital wealth capabilities. Really trying to position ourselves to be ahead of competitors and in line with market trends in some cases. So we fundamentally believe that technology, when it's paired with investment expertise, will deliver better outcomes for both our advisers and investors. And I'd say we see an ability to capture AUM from our broader platform. That does exist, and we've got some pilot efforts out there to try to prove out this model. But really, it's our digital businesses that are going to offer that fast growing and sticky recurring revenue, that software revenue for the firm that we think will offer a diversifier alongside our investment management piece.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#28

So now let's talk about the M&A. So historically, Invesco has been very active with M&A. It's a firm that's not afraid to do transactions. I'll just sort of ask an open-ended one. What are Invesco's current priorities today with respect to M&A?

Allison Dukes

executive
#29

I'd say we haven't wavered on our views around M&A. They're the same today as they were 2 years ago and 4 years ago. Any transaction that we would consider has to be additive in some way. The investment capabilities have to be complementary to what we have. We're not looking for significant overlap. It's got to be strategic, and that can take -- that word can take on a variety of different meetings. But I think it really means that something has to be differentiated. And again, complementary to the platform we already have. There's got to be client demand there. And then it's got to be culturally aligned. And so as we think about M&A in the future, I mean it's got to check a lot of boxes. We don't think that consolidation is talked about quite a bit in our industry right now. We don't think it necessarily comes just from one asset manager buying another asset manager. It also means clients moving money from one asset manager to another, which creates stronger and larger, more scaled asset managers. And I think that's going to be one driver of consolidation beyond traditional M&A.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#30

Got it. And I have one follow-up on M&A. As you look across the business mix today, both from a geographic distribution side and also a product capability side. What do you feel are your major gaps today in the business mix?

Allison Dukes

executive
#31

Yes. I'd say I'd actually turn that to -- gaps are really consistent with where I'd say our key growth capabilities and areas are. So they're not necessarily gaps, but they're areas of focus. And so those 2 things sort of are going to fit together should opportunities arise. We've really built a global and client-centric business. I think we're well positioned to meet client needs in the areas where there's high demand. And again, we've got the depth and the breadth, and I think the resiliency to really deliver the positive outcome to our clients throughout different market cycles. As some of these investments that we've been talking about over the past decade that are really taking root, again, are examples of where we've invested ahead of some key macro trends. They're really shaping our industry right now, and we'll continue to shape the industry in the future. So again, kind of -- we talked about those key growth areas. And I'd say that's where we're going to continue to invest. Those are the areas that represent significant growth opportunities. There are always going to be opportunities that arise to augment our capabilities. They have to make sense. Of course, they have to be the right price or a structure, they have to be complementary, all the things we already discussed. And so I think bottom line is M&A is not necessarily our primary focus. Our primary focus is really growing our own business and really harvesting the value of these investments we're making in these key growth areas.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#32

Great. And Allison, with that, we are out of questions, out of time. And we just wanted to give you a big thanks on behalf of everyone here at Crédit Suisse. And we hope to see you next year in-person in Miami. So Allison, thank you very much.

Allison Dukes

executive
#33

I hope so too. Thank you, Craig.

Craig Siegenthaler

analyst
#34

Bye-bye.

Allison Dukes

executive
#35

Goodbye.

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