Investec Group (INL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Investec Pre-close Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Fani Titi. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us for our pre-close trading update. This update reflects the financial performance for the 11 months ended 29th February 2024 and the expected results for the financial period year to 31st March 2024. I'm joined this morning by Nishlan Samujh, Group Finance Director; Ruth Leas, Chief Executive of our U.K. business; Richard Wainwright, Chief Executive of our South African business; and the incoming Chief Executive of our South African business from the 1st of April, Cumesh Moodliar, and I have [ Q ] Dwayi from my Investor Relations team. The global macroeconomic backdrop remains uncertain, resulting in persistent market volatility, interest rates remain elevated and continue to provide a tailwind to bank's net interest income. The average rent to selling exchange rates remained weaker. The group's diversified revenue streams and the success of our client acquisition strategies across the franchises have continued to underpin a solid performance. Our strong balance sheet and strategic execution since our 2019 Capital Markets Day have allowed us to support our clients and also to achieve our FY 2024 and medium-term financial targets. Turning to underlying performance for the 11 months ended 29th Feb 2024. Higher revenue was supported by balance sheet growth, the higher interest rate environment and progress in our growth initiatives. Fixed cost expenditure reflected the continued investment in people and technology for growth, inflationary pressures as well as higher regulatory costs, while variable remuneration grew in line with profitability. As a result, pre-provision adjusted operating profit was above mid-single digits with the cost-to-income ratio remaining in line with the first half. The group expects to report a credit loss ratio around the midpoint of the -- through the cycle range of 25 bps to 35 bps. South Africa, the expected credit losses benefited from recoveries from previously written off exposures and the credit loss ratio is expected to be below the 8 bps reported in the interim results in November 2023. The U.K. is expected to report a credit loss ratio within the guided range of 50 bps to 60 bps communicated in the interim results of November 20 -- announced in November 2023. Given the challenging macroeconomic and elevated interest rate environment, we have seen idiosyncratic client stresses with no evidence of trend deterioration in the overall credit quality of our lending books. Looking at the underlying drivers for our core franchises of Specialist Banking and Wealth and Investment, starting off with Specialist Banking. Core loans increased by 7.1% in neutral currency annualized and 1.6% annualized on reported basis to GBP 30.8 billion, driven by corporate lending in both geographies and private client lending in South Africa. Customer deposits increased by 5.5% in neutral currency annualized and remained broadly flat on a reported basis at GBP 39.5 billion. Funds under management in our Wealth and Investment business increased by 3.6% to GBP 20.5 billion with strong growth in discretionary inflows during the period. [ Since ] December 2023, Rathbones, a 41.25% held group associate, reported Funds Under Management and Administration of GBP 105.3 billion. Bringing it all together, we expect to report the following for the financial year ending 31st March 2024. Adjusted earnings per share, that is between 76p and 80p, which is 10% to 16% ahead of the prior year; headline earnings per share growth of between 4.8% to 10.6%, which includes the cost of executing on strategic actions; and adjusted operating profit before tax between GBP 866.9 million and GBP 909.6 million compared to GBP 818.7 million in the prior year, and we expect the ROE to be above the midpoint of the group's target range of 12% to 16%. This guidance incorporates a provision for a potential impact of the recently announced financial conduct authority review into historical motor finance commission arrangements and sales. The group has maintained and above Board approved capital and liquidity levels are allowing us to continue to support our clients and to build to scale identified growth opportunities. The group intends to publish revised medium-term financial targets when we report our full year results on the 23rd of May. I will now turn the call over to questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question we have comes from Harry Botha of Anchor Stockbrokers.

Just a question around the lending growth and the direction of travel as you're seeing it at the moment. Do you see lending growth improving? Is it stable or slowing? And possibly a comment around the activity levels in the Private Banking business or Private Client business in the U.K. as well.

Okay. I'm going to ask Nishlan to give you a general answer on the question. If you want more detail, I can get Richard to give you a South Africa specific view and Ruth to talk to a U.K.-specific view. As we said, the growth has been driven largely by growth in our Corporate businesses and in our Private Clients business in South Africa. Given the level of interest rates in the U.K. and the increases over the last period, we have seen much muted growth in that part of our business, the Mortgage business specifically. But we can give you a bit more color. Nish, do you want to just give a sense of the direction [indiscernible]

I think you actually summed it up quite nicely at that point. We are still in what I would call a constrained market environment broadly [ see ] and to see the level of corporate growth, I think, has been relatively pleasing over this period, but we will anticipate as rates come down and the economic environment opens up, which is not easy to call given the fact that we are in an election period, both in South Africa and the U.K., and you have other geopolitical [indiscernible] But to the extent that you move into a continued improving economic environment, we would expect activity to pick up, particularly in a lower rate environment. Now a year ago, we would have probably have thought that rates would have come down a lot quicker than we have seen. And the expectation is that whilst rates will come down, we will see it come down at a much more muted level overall. So I think one has to factor that into overall projections. But from our perspective, we remain very active around, particularly in the Private Client base around client acquisition in both geographies. I think that so we'll continue to pursue that -- our target markets. And to that extent, we'll continue to pursue growth in [ our box ].

Ruth, can you just give any color on the U.K. and Richard [indiscernible]

We continue to see diversified lending growth across our business, given multi-asset classes that we're involved in, that's across the Corporate and Investment Banking activities. As Nishlan pointed out, it is a constrained environment, but we do continue to gain market share in this space. Of course, with rates coming down in the future, we'd expect growth to accelerate in the lending activity. From a private client perspective, as Nishlan points out, we have certainly kept up our efforts on client acquisition and that has gone strongly albeit not as strongly as the prior years when mortgage growth was very strong. We have, however, seen activity levels stabilized in the mortgage space and actually the pipelines are picking up. So I think we have turned the [indiscernible] in terms of [ lending ] activity.

The next question we have comes from Stephan Potgieter of UBS.

Thanks very much for the update. Just a couple of questions. Firstly, just on the Rathbones. With the December year and how do you account for that going forward in terms of do you account for it in arrears? Or how do you bring in the Rathbones numbers? And then just on the motor finance commission provision, if you can just give some color how you're involved in this industry? I wasn't really aware that you have a significant Motor Finance business.

Okay. Let me take the Motor Finance one and I'll Nishlan and Ruth will add. Obviously, we have a small book relative to the market and other players in Motor Finance and we enter it around 2015, 2016 or so and we have disclosed the [ size ] of the book. At the time we bought the business, we obviously look into it, and we were comfortable that the practices were consistent with both regulation and law. But clearly, the FCA has conducted or is conducting a review of it, and we will see what the outcome of that to be used -- to be prudent around it. We looked at scenarios based on the size of our book to see what a potential impact could be. So given the level of uncertainty, you obviously have to do a number of scenarios. And on that basis, we have taken in these numbers and provision, we will disclose the quantum of the provision in May. I mean, as you can see, it hasn't really affected our results much just given the small proportion of our overall book that is in this space. Ruth, Nishlan, how do we...

On Rathbones, in any given financial year other than this financial year, you'll always account for 12 months. We are still finalizing the outcome with Rathbones. We're anticipating that we would account for it for the full six months since the acquisition at the end of 1st September. If it is a 3-month versus 6-month period, the differential is not that material for the purposes of our group results for this year-end.

[Operator Instructions] Sir, at this stage, there seems to be no further questions on the conference line.

Thank you all for your time this morning and for your interest in our business. As usual, if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to get in touch with our team through our IR contact. We always look forward to engaging with you and to answering your questions. Clearly, in May, we will have an opportunity to unpack the performance for the year. And as we indicated, we intend to revise our medium-term financial targets and we will go through that as well in May. But thank you for your interest, and have a good day further.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.