Inwido AB (publ) (INWI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the Inwido Q4 2023 Report Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to Peter Welin, CFO and Acting President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everybody. My name is Peter Welin, and I am the CFO as well as Acting CEO of Inwido until 10th of April when Fredrik Meuller will join us. With me today, I have Jonna Opitz. She is Executive Vice President for Communications as well as Interim Executive Vice President for Western Europe. Before we go into the Q4 results, we have a short introduction to Inwido, if someone is new to Inwido. Inwido is a leading window group, company or group in Europe, mainly in Northern Europe. We are a clear market leader in the Nordic region, with strong presence in U.K. and in Ireland. We have also sales and production in Poland, and we have also e-commerce sales in [Audio Gap] production -- have also production in Romania and Estonia. Net sales last year was SEK 9 billion. Return on operating capital was 15.4%, and we are approximately 4,700 employees. In the bottom, you can see that we have many brands. And why do we have so many brands? Because windows and doors, especially windows are regional products. And we must offer -- on each local markets, we must offer products suitable for each market. And [Audio Gap] If we look at the value -- the shareholder value propositions, we have 5 [ taken ]. The first one is attractive market driven by green transition. Second is strong position in core geographies. Number three is proven track record through economic cycles. Number four, it's a scalable e-commerce platform. And number five, but not at least, potential to drive European consolidation. That is a short introduction to Inwido. And then let's go into the Q4 and the full year of 2023. Starting with the highlights for Q4, I'm proud to say that we have been able to improve the EBITA margin from 12.1% to 12.7% in the quarter on a continued challenging market. The challenging market is mainly on the new build market in Sweden and Finland where we see dramatic drops, volume drops as well as hesitant consumers due to high inflation as well as higher interest rates. But despite the lower volume, despite the lower sales in the quarter, we have been able to strengthen gross margin in Q4 for the fourth consecutive quarter in a row, thanks to good cost control and a favorable mix. With that, I mean, we have a lower degree of industry sales in the quarter. We have also been able to improve the cash flows from operations as well as stabilize the order intake in the quarter, and we have continued strong balance sheet. If we then go in and look more into the figures for Q4, sales was down by 13% to SEK 2.273 billion. Organically, sales is down by 21% compared to Q4 last year. Despite the lower sales, we have been able to improve operating EBITA margin from 12.1% to 12.7%, an improvement by 60 basis points. The order intake was unchanged compared to Q4 last year. If we then exclude acquisitions, and with that, we mean the acquisition of Sidey, which was done during the summer, the order intake is down by 6% compared to last year. The order backlog end of the quarter compared to last year was SEK 1.937 billion, is up by 22%. Excluding Sidey, the order intake was down by 32% end of the quarter compared to last year. We have increased the cash flows during -- from operations during [Audio Gap] SEK 418 million last year. Return on operating capital was 15.4% compared to a target of 15%, and the net debt versus operating EBITDA was 0.9 compared to a target of maximum 2.5. Last year was 0.6. Excluding IFRS 16, the net debt versus operating EBITDA was 0.6. If we then go through and look for the full year. The full year, we have a strong year despite the challenging markets. We have a stable profit and margin compared to last year. Operating EBITA margin was on the same level as last year, 11.4% despite the challenging market. We see a decline, especially on the new build markets, where started dwellings was down by about 40% in the Nordic in the full year, and also hesitant consumers. So sales is down by 6% for the full year. Organically, sales is down by 14%. [Audio Gap] And we have improved the cash flow generation during the year. Sidey Group, our largest as well as latest acquisition, was done during the summer, has a good contribution to the group and provided a good performance from the first day. The balance sheet remains strong, which enabled us to continue to invest in our business units as well as to continue to invest in growth through acquisitions. Earnings per share was SEK 11.72 compared to SEK 13.74 last year. And the Board has decided to propose a dividend payout of SEK 6.50, unchanged compared to last year and above the dividend policy of 50%. If we then go through the income statements. This graph on this page is showing the income statement, where you can see the Q4 in the middle, and to the right, you can see the full year. Sales in the Q4 is down by 13%. Organically, sales is down by 21%. The margin has been improved from 25.5% to 26.2%, showing that we are able to adjust our capacity and our cost in production to meet the lower volumes. Operating EBITA is down by 8% from SEK 350 million (sic) [ SEK 315 million ] to SEK 290 million, and the margin has thereby improved from 12.1% to 12.7%. And you can also see that we have been able to reduce our overhead cost in the quarter compared to last year, meaning the action we have taken during the year has started to give impact on the overhead cost in the quarter. EBITA is down by 11%. We have some restructuring costs in the quarter of SEK 6 million. Last year, we had a positive restructuring cost due to a reevaluation of an earnout. So EBITA is down from SEK 319 million to SEK 284 million, meaning the EBITA margin has been improved by 30 basis points from 12.2% to 12.5%. Profit after tax is down by 20%, and the earnings per share is down by 22%. The reason why earnings per share is more down compared to profit after tax is due to minority interest. We have the latest acquisition of Sidey. We only acquired 70%, meaning we have 30% in minority stakeholders for Sidey. Looking at the full year, the sales is down by 6%. Organically is down by 40% (sic) [ 14% ], meaning a volume dropped more than 20% in the year. Gross margin has been improved from 24.5% to 25.6%. Operating EBITA has been reduced by 6% from SEK 1.090 billion to SEK 1.027 billion, meaning the margin is on the same level as last year. So despite the lower volume, despite lower sales, we have been able to protect our operating EBITA margin for the year. And you can see further down the income statement that profit after tax is down by 13%, and earnings per share is down by 15% from SEK 13.74 to SEK 11.72. This page is showing sales as well as the order intake for the Q4 for 2018 until 2023. And to the left, you can see the development of sales. And to the right, you can see the development of the order intake. Sales then down in the quarter by 13%. Organically, it's down by 21%, mainly associated with the volume decline within the new construction markets in Finland and Sweden. Scandinavia has a decline of 21%, and Eastern Europe has a decline of 34% due to the performance in the industry market in Sweden as well in Finland. E-commerce has the same level as last year. Organically, it's down by 3%, but sales is about the same level as last year. And Western Europe, we have a huge increase due to Sidey, plus 86%. However, taking away Sidey, we are still on the positive side, plus 3% compared to last year. To the right, you can see the order intake, and you can also then see sales as well as an order intake. You can also see the performance of Sidey, the golden stables. The order intake is on same level as last year. Taking away the Sidey Group, the order intake is down by 6%, once again, mainly associated with the volume decline within the new construction market in Sweden and in Finland. Scandinavia is down by 7% in the order intake, and Eastern Europe is down by 10% in the order intake. E-commerce is on the same level as last year when it comes to order intake as well. Western Europe, we have a large increase, plus 61%. Taking away the Sidey, the order intake of Western Europe is slightly negative compared to last year. This graph is then showing the order backlog, the order backlog end of each quarter from Q4 2019 until Q4 2023. The total order backlog is 22% above last year. Excluding Sidey, is down by 32%. And as you can see on this graph, Sidey has a relative high order backlog when they are selling to social housing in Scotland with long and large contracts. Excluding Sidey, we are down by 32%. Once again, mainly related to the new construction market in Finland and Sweden, but also due to the consumer markets, where the cold and rather early winter impacted the consumer order intake end of the quarter. Scandinavia has 33% lower order backlog. Eastern Europe has 44% lower order backlog. E-commerce has 12% lower order backlog, and Western Europe had a huge increase due to Sidey. And excluding Sidey, is slightly below last year. This graph is showing the operating EBITA and the operating EBITA margin for Q4 for 2018 until 2023. And as you can see on this graph, we have -- for Q4 this 2023, we have the second-highest operating EBITA margin ever. And we have improved the margin during the last 2 years due to, or thanks to improved gross margin, conscious cost control and -- in production as well as in overhead. And we also have a flexibility in our production planning. We are capable to adjust the capacity when it's needed. This graph is then showing our return on operating capital. Return on operating capital is defined as EBITA latest 12 months in percentage of the average operating capital latest 4 quarters. The return on operating capital was 15.4% end of the quarter compared to a target of 15%, so above the target. We have a decline in the year. Last year, it was 18.3%. So we have a decline of 2.9% units, mainly due to lower EBITA. It has been reduced from [Audio Gap] in the quarter. The margin is stable. Operating EBITA margin is in the same level as last year. So we've been able to protect the margin but not operating capital during the year. We have an increase in operating capital due to acquisitions as well as weaker Swedish crown during the year, and we have also higher CapEx in the year [Audio Gap] And then this graph is then showing the net debt, including as well as excluding IFRS 16, and you can also see the lines that then presents the net debt versus operating EBITDA, including as well as excluding IFRS 16. During the year, as well as in Q4, we have improved our cash flows from operations. And also, when we're looking at the net debt, in the net debt, we include the future payments for call and -- our call and puts. The latest acquisitions we have made -- we're making -- we have made, we have not acquired 100%. For instance, the Sidey Group, we acquired 70% during the year, meaning we have a call/put solution of the remaining 30%. The value, the estimated future value of this call/put that we're going to pay in the future is included in our net debt definition. So we have then discounted the future -- estimated future payments to the value as of today and is included in the net debt. If we then exclude IFRS 16 and we exclude these valuations of the future payments of the call/puts, the debt is more or less on the same level as last year, meaning Inwido has have been able, during the year, to finance the 70% of the acquisition of Sidey, finance the increased CapEx as well as dividend with own cash flows generated in 2023. The net debt versus EBITDA was, end of the quarter, 0.9 compared to a target of maximum 2.5. Last year was 0.6. And then excluding IFRS 16, the net debt versus operating EBITDA was 0.6. If we then go through each business area and we start with Scandinavia, we see a net sales decrease due to historical drop in the new build market, mainly related to Sweden and somewhat of Norway. In Denmark, the market has also declined. However, we are not so dependent on a new build market in Denmark. We are quite low -- a very low sales in new build market in Denmark. Mainly, we are selling to the renovation market in Denmark. So the margin has increased in the quarter, which was made possible through efficiency and cost savings. Sales is down by 21% to SEK 1.133 billion. Operating EBITA margin was up from 14.8% to 15%. The order intake declined by 7%, and the order backlog end of the quarter is 33% below last year and, once again, mainly related to the new build market in Scandinavia and then in Sweden and Norway. The Eastern Europe, we have the same tendency. We have a weak industry markets and also hesitant consumers, affecting sales as well as the order take in the quarter. We have a strong improvement in the profits and the margins due to the full impact from price increases, cost control and efficiency measures. Sales is down by 34% compared to last year, ending up to SEK 475 million compared to SEK 724 million last year. And despite the lower sales, we've been able to improve the operating EBITA margin from 11% to 14.5%. The order intake is down by 10% in the quarter, and the order backlog end of the quarter is down by 44%. Once again, very much related to the new build market in Finland. Our e-commerce business has been a stable performance. Sales and order intake is unchanged compared to last year. Operating EBITA margin has declined, mainly due to increased competition on the market. We have received a report from the Danish Chamber of Commerce, the e-trade report for 2023, stating that it is a challenging market for e-trade and also stating that our business, that Inwido Danish brands or our Danish brands on the e-commerce market is performing well. We are beating the index on all parameters. Sales in the quarter was on same level as last year, SEK 246 million. Operating EBITA margin went down from 8.6% to 5%. The order intake was stabilizing, same level as last year, and the order backlog end of the quarter is minus 12%. If we then go into Western Europe. Western Europe is highly impacted by the acquisition of Sidey, and Sidey has a good contribution in the quarter. Sidey was acquired in -- during the summer, and Sidey is then located in Scotland. The U.K. consumer market is still challenging, and we see several competitors are struggling right now on the U.K. market. The Irish market is more stable, and our business unit, Carlson, is performing well on the Irish markets. We have increased sales from SEK 230 million to SEK 428 million, mainly due to the acquisition of Sidey. Excluding Sidey and also adjusted for the currency impact, sales is up by 3%. We have improved operating EBITA margin from 7.3% to 10.8%. And the order intake was plus 61%, and the order backlog is hugely above last year, mainly impacted by Sidey Group. Excluding Sidey, the order intake as well as the order backlog is slightly negative compared to last year. If we then go into our sustainability targets, I'm very pleased to announce that we have been able to improve our employee satisfaction in -- during the year. Inwido has, for the latest 10 years plus, been having a survey, annual survey for Great Place to Work, and we set our target for more than 10 years ago to achieve 75%, and this target was achieved in 2023. I'm also very glad to see that we have a positive trend when it comes to health and safety, with fewer accidents and less short-term sick leave. The accidents has been reduced by 25% compared to last year, and per million working hours, it has gone down from 12.9 to 11.3, still too high and still more to do to improve that KPI. Looking at the EU taxonomy, we have slightly declined, 64.2% compared to 65.3% last year. When it comes to sales, fulfilled the criteria of significant contribution to climate change mitigations and 17.4% on sales, which are fully aligned with the EU taxonomy criteria. The main reason why we have a decline in these KPIs is due to acquisitions as well as lower volumes in Finland. The energy use per wing increased, mainly as a result for lower production volumes. In absolute terms, the energy use has been reduced in the year. So looking now at KPIs. Many of our KPIs are in relation to what we call wing. And if you're not familiar what wing means, you can then translate to units. So many of our KPIs is in relation to units. And of course, during this year, with a lower volume, that has a negative impact when it comes to some of the KPIs. So energy use, measured as kilowatts per unit, has been increased, but the total is then a reduction compared to last year. Hazardous waste and waste. On hazardous waste, we have a stable looking at in kilo per unit, meaning the total is down. And waste, we have a slightly increase, also then impacted negative by the acquisitions. Accidents, as I said before, is down from 12.9 accident per million working hours down to 11.3. Good development during the last 2 years and still more to do on these KPIs. CO2 emission has also been increased from 2.1 to 3, once again, due to acquisitions and lower volume. And then we have a positive trend when it comes to sick leave short-term as well as long term. We are also a positive trend when it comes to wood from sustainable forests, and also when it comes to cases of harassment or discrimination is down from 2 to 1. If we then look at the outlook, we are in a challenging market, and we have delivered strong profitability during 2023. We have improved our cash flows, and we have a strong balance sheet, proving the strength in our business model. Our model with a decentralized organization model has been proving to be the right also in a challenging market. We entered this year, 2024, with a lower order backlog than last year. Excluding Sidey, is down by 32%, which will then impact the short-term, the Q1 results or the Q1 sales. At the same time, we have -- inflation is decreasing, and interest rates are expected to be reduced, which will have a positive impact for Inwido. We also see a continued interest in energy-efficient solutions, and the EU negotiations create opportunities for the future. EU has a clear ambition to reduce and improve the energy performance of buildings in the coming years. This means a large growth opportunity for energy-efficient windows and doors. So what do we have to do? We have to focus on our cost control. We have to be flexibility in our production planning while, at the same time, drive initiatives and actions that develop the business for the short-term as well as the long-term. So before I close this first and last quarter presentation as Acting CEO, I would like to welcome Fredrik Meuller, who will join us on the 10th of April, and then I will go back and to have a full focus on my role as CFO and a Deputy CEO. So operator, I'll now open up for questions.

The next question comes from Sofia Sörling from Carnegie.

All right. Sofia Sörling here from Carnegie. So my first question, if you can say something about -- you mentioned the slowdown in Sweden and Finland that is mainly related to new build. Do you see any particular change in consumer behavior during the quarter? And also, if you see any specific trends in terms of order intake during the quarter, if it's less in the beginning or if it has been decreasing during the quarter and compared to the typical seasonality effect in Q4? That's my first question.

If you start with the first question, yes, there is a reduction in the new build market in Finland and Sweden. And also -- and we are then impacted by that because if you look at our total sales, 75% is the renovation market. So around 75% is the renovation market. And however, we have a higher degree of sales to the new build market in Sweden as well as in Finland. It's slightly below 50%. Around 45% of our sales in Sweden as well in Finland is then related to the new build market. And that has, of course, a negative impact for us. Whereas in Denmark, we have very low sales on the new build market, below 10%. Look at the second quarter, the order intake. The order intake was a little bit -- we saw a little bit impact when it comes to consumer during the second half of the quarter. And we believe that is we had a negative weather impact impacted consumers and their willingness to then go out and see their need for the new windows and start to place orders for new windows. And that will then have a short-term impact on the beginning of Q1. Otherwise, we see a lot of positive when it comes to long-term outlook for Inwido. And we also see -- when it comes to the green transition, we see an increased discussion in EU as well as local politicians have also started to make suggestions and discussions related to the green transition.

Yes. So that leads me to my second question. So what is your impression around current subsidies? And how much is actually supporting sales already, perhaps already during '23 and in this quarter, Q4 and into 2024? Is that like supporting sales a lot already, would you say? And perhaps maybe, especially for the Sidey Group since that one is actually going pretty well, is it significantly supported by subsidies already in your view? If you can give us some more details around that.

Yes. Looking at subsidies, my belief is that subsidies will be increased in the Nordic. If we are going to meet the EU legislation and the demand in EU, we must start to invest more in our buildings. And that -- I believe that subsidies will be increased in the future, and also perhaps, there are going to be other penalties connected as well. Looking at Sidey Group, it's not so much related to subsidies because our sales is to the social housing market in Scotland. And the Scottish government has decided to be quite fast and quick when it comes to renovation and improve the energy performance of buildings, and they have started to then invest in their social housing. And that is the main channel of Sidey.

All right. And you don't see any new competitive landscape there to Sidey Group since it seems to be quite of a good market at the moment and ahead as well?

No, we don't see any change during our 6 months we have been owners of Sidey.

All right. And -- okay. And regarding -- you mentioned that you have been able to compensate the reduced volumes during '23 by implementing savings in fixed costs. And how do you view the potential in adjusting your cost base also in 2024? And also, if you could give maybe some examples of what you can do more, basically?

Our main cost base is direct material. And our -- 50% of our sales is direct material or installations or freight cost, and that goes away quite quickly. When it comes to our indirect costs and when it comes to our production cost, we have been able to be quite flexible. We have been showing during this year that despite the volume decline in the market, we are able to adjust our capacity and reduce our costs because it's in our DNA. We are used to work on a market with high seasonality, so we know what to do to reduce as well as increase the capacity. Of course, during this year, it takes a bit more effort due to the large decline we are seeing in the market. And when it comes to the fixed costs, we have been working with the fixed cost, but it takes longer time to adjust the fixed cost, but we have been reducing our fixed costs on most -- more or less all levels. Then of course, it's also a decision regarding for the future. If we reduce sales and marketing costs too much, that can then impact sales in the next coming quarters. So it's a balance on how much we would like to reduce the cost and how we foresee the market because we don't want to lose any opportunities when the market starts to come back.

All right. Okay. And then maybe my last question, what is your expectation on increasing prices towards your customers during 2024?

I think it's going to be hard to increase the prices. Our target will be to have a stable price level. We see that some competitors have started to reduce the prices. And we, as a market leader, must be strong and keep up the prices. So I don't foresee any large price increases in 2024. It's going to be -- our task is going to be to have a stable price.

All right. Sorry, I have one more question. Could you say something more about the investment in this one factory, how that is progressing and when it's expected to be ready?

This one factory that we're doing in -- at Elitfönster. And I'm also glad to say that Elitfönster is turning 100 this year. So we are making an investment of about SEK 100 million on the year when they are turning 100 years old. And we're also coming out with quite some -- 2 really nice new projects with a really good energy efficiency and also good sound value, et cetera. So 2 really nice projects coming out right now. The investment is going according to plan, and it's going to be finalized during this year.

The next question comes from Rasmus Engberg from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

And I wanted to start by asking you, now in Q1, how does your direct material costs look? Are they higher or lower? And maybe if you could shed some light on sort of glass, wood and aluminum, if that's possible?

Rasmus, thanks for your questions and participation in this call. Yes, the direct material, the prices are down. We see a decrease of prices. Especially, on the glass, we see a decrease. Wood, slightly down as well compared to last year, and the aluminum and other materials is a bit more stable. But in total, slightly down compared to last year.

Right. Very good. And I just noticed in the e-commerce business, there seems to be a fairly dismal outcome in terms of margins again. Is there anything going on there? Or is it some sort of cost of expanding somewhere? Why are the margins down in that business?

It's a good question, Rasmus. And the main answer to that is actually increased competitions.

Okay. So it's pricing.

It's pricing, yes. The efficiency is up and running. The performance and the costs are doing well. So it's a pricing question and also a little bit cost related to Google Ads. There, we have a price increase compared to previous years. But the main part is actually the pricing.

So basically, when we look at that particular unit with revenues down 3% organically, I think it was -- you're saying that prices are actually down and volumes are stable. Is that roughly the development there or something like that?

Yes. Looking at the sales for the Q4, yes.

Yes. Okay. All right. That explains a bit on that. And can you just explain what happened in the financial net in this quarter? It seems to be a very large positive in that.

Mainly related to the currency. We had some other currencies. So when the Swedish krona went stronger, we had a positive currency impact.

Okay. Can you sort of give some -- is it like SEK 20 million or SEK 25 million or something?

I think it was, in the quarter, around SEK 20 million pretax.

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Okay. Thank you very much. Yes. First of all, I'd like to say sorry for some technical disturbances during the conference call. We had a question, if we could publish a transcription of Peter's speech afterwards. Unfortunately, that's not possible since this is something Peter speaks from his head and heart. So if you have any questions, specific questions of something that you missed during the call, please ask them in the chat, and we will try and answer them here. Anyway, I think we will start with a question from Carsten Dehn at Lannebo. And the question is, how did your sales prices develop in the fourth quarter year-over-year?

The prices has been increased -- were increased 2022, and that then impacted the beginning of 2023. Then looking at the sales prices for Q4 is more or less on the same level as last year. So we have very marginal impact from a price increase in Q4 compared to Q4 last year. So the price impact was mainly in Q1 to Q3.

Okay. Then we have a question from Goldman Sachs. The question is, would you say that the struggling regional subsegments like Sweden and Finland, the industrial segments there have nearly no backlog at this point?

It is reductions compared to last year, but it's not totally 0. So it is not 0, but it's a reduction compared to last year, but not 0.

Okay. We also have a question here from Rolf Helbling at Carnot Capital. And I read what it says: "Hi, Peter, congrats to great execution. The question is on M&A. How has this market developed? And do you see opportunities improving this in a challenging market?" That is the first part of the question.

Thanks for the positive feedback. Yes, we have opportunities. We have the balance sheet. We have liquidity. So we -- and we have, of course, the targets. So we are looking for acquisitions, and acquisition is a core ambition for Inwido to grow more. So yes, we see opportunities. And then of course, everything is then related to that we have to find the right valuations. We and the sellers must find the right valuations, accepting for both parties.

Okay. And a follow-up question is, what is the focus? Is it acquisitions in established markets like the U.K. and within e-commerce or new markets?

We would like to expand our business on our existing markets, especially in the U.K. We would like to expand more in the U.K., and we are very pleased that we made the acquisition of Sidey Group in Scotland. So we'd like to expand in the U.K., and we'd also like to expand through e-commerce, but then mainly through organic growth as we just entered the Netherlands in 2023. When it comes to new markets, we would like to go into new markets such as France. We also see opportunities in Germany, Switzerland and Austria. And we also see that we could expand the business in Poland as well.

Okay. I see that we have no more questions from the chat. Perhaps we have one more question from a caller, operator or...

The next question comes from Rasmus Engberg from Handelsbanken.

Just a follow-up question. On the cash flow, it seems as though, obviously, there is an effect here of coming from weak sales, meaning that the receivables are down quite a lot, helping your working capital. But is that a correct interpretation? I know that you have down -- your prepayments on the consumer side. So I'm just wondering if you could explain a little bit what's going on in the working capital right here because it's pretty big moves.

Yes. So if we look at prepayments, it's quite low prepayment that we have. We have slightly in some e-commerce et cetera, but rather low prepayments for this group. The decrease is, yes, we have low activities, and thereby, we have also lower accounts receivables, but we've also been able to reduce our inventory during the year. So if you look at the cash flow in percentage of sales, it's more or less stable during the year. And our main KPI, return KPI is actually then the working capital related to sales. And that is stable, slightly down in Q4 compared to the beginning of the year. So it has taken time to reduce the inventory due to the lower market, but now we see the impact of the lower inventory as well.

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Okay. We have no further questions here on the platform. So thereby, we close this presentation, and I wish you all a great day. Thank you so much.

Thank you.