Iren SpA (IRE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, and welcome to the conference of Iren Group. My name is Zach, and I'll be your moderator for today's event. [Operator Instructions]. I will now leave the floor to Giulio Domma for the beginning of today's conference. Thank you very much.

Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you very much for joining the conference call. I'm here with Executive Chairman, Luca Dal Fabbro; and CFO, Giovanni Gazza. After the presentation, as per usual, we'll have a Q&A session. And now I'll hand over immediately to Luca to present the results of the period.

Thank you very much, Giulio, and good afternoon to all of you. Thank you very much for joining to the presentation of the 2024 results that were just recently approved by the Board. The Iren Group confirms its industrial development path in 2024 saw growth coming mainly from the Networks and the Market business combined with M&A activities, mainly related to the consolidation of Sienambiente. Together with other factors that we'll see later, the contribution to EBITDA was more than EUR 35 million, which allowed EBITDA to grow together with other factors by approximately 6.5%. In particular, I would like to summarize the main industrial development projects that we launched in Q4 of 2024. As anticipated during the last conference call in October, waste collection service management was activated in 63 municipalities in the province of Asti. We've also participated in capacity market auctions for the delivery year 2026, winning 100% of the capacity offered, which was also confirmed in the auction for 2027. Net financial debt is just under EUR 4.1 billion, up EUR 150 million from last year. Operating cash flow generation allowed for the full financing of the outlets for technical investments in MA, which totaled almost EUR 950 million and were aligned with the values of 2023. To conclude, this first phase, the net profit growth of 5% allow us to propose to the next assembly dividend of EUR 12.83 per share with a growth of 8% compared to last year, in line with the dividend policy industrial plan to 2030 that were presented last year. Let's now move on to Page 3. And we are going to check the main ESG results that highlight the group's progress on the sustainable growth path as outlined in the business plan. This result were supported by sustainable investments at 76% at the end of 2024. As far as the green transition is concerned, we see a reduction of 6% in carbon intensity as a result of the increase in renewable generation, especially hydro, and the decline in gas-fired and WTE thermoelectric generation. However, as anticipated in the business plan, we expect carbon intensity to remain stable in the short term. The commitment to maintaining excellence in waste collection in very important territories and the extension of good practices in other areas of development has allowed the group to reach a total of almost 70% of sorted waste collection; the increase in urban waste managed, plus 6%; and the increased plant capacity allowed us to exceed 1 million tons of waste sent to material recovery plants, plus 13%. Rubber, the year just ended. So a progress of Iren's presence on the territory with the increase of municipalities served by waste collection activities, which exceeded 550 following the awarding of the contract to the Cuneo Ecological Consortium and that of the province of Asti. In terms of the number of clients, there was an increase in the customer base, plus 5% due to the acquisition of electricity customers from January 2025 EGEA's 200,000 customers will also enter Iren's consolidation perimeter, reaching a total of 2.5 million customers. In addition, the extension of the district heating network continued exceeding 102 million cubic meters in volume. There's also clear quality of service improvement with a further improvement in the satisfaction of our customers who come to our stores. The fact that we are rooted in territory and we are close to the citizens, this is the basis of Iren's commercial strategy, which after the 2024 inaugurations, has come to manage over 1,200 physical contact points between stores and corners and has kept growing in digital commercial relationship with 75% of supply customers using the Iren new app. Finally, water losses were stable at 31% despite the entry of Acquaenna into our perimeter, while energy that was saved by customer grew by 30%, thanks to increased sales of renewable electricity, plus 36% and the purchase of IrenPlus products. Let's move on to Slide #4. So the results at a glance for 2024, for the whole year. Let's take a look at the first financial economic indicators of the period and the trends that were characteristic to it. EBITDA reached EUR 1,274 million, an increase of about EUR 80 million compared to 2023. This result is higher than the guidance provided in the last conference call. This is mainly due to the higher profitability of the supply business and the higher hydro volumes. Among the positive elements of the financial year compared to the previous year, I would like to mention a few: the updating of regulatory parameters in Networks and the environment for approximately EUR 100 million; confirmation of the high profitability of our customer base with an additional contribution of almost EUR 60 million; organic growth in regulated business for continued investments and inorganic growth of EUR 35 million; higher hydroelectric production volumes, which reached 1,457 gigawatt per hour, limiting the drop in generation results due to lower energy prices. The trend in the energy scenario reduced the result for the period by almost EUR 140 million, considering all business lines. The combined effect of higher generation volumes and higher margins in the market, counterbalanced by lower generation prices, led to a result for the energy business that is in line with the results of 2023, confirming the balancing of the integrated management model. Among negative elements of the period, we can include the lower contribution from energy efficiency projects due to the reduction of activities related to 110% superbonus for residential customers. The result of the environment sector impacted mainly by a drop in the margins of some waste treatment and disposal plants. As a closing comment on EBITDA, I would like to update you on the synergy plan that our company is pursuing, as outlined in the business plan. During 2024, we have accounted for EUR 8 million in cost savings. EBIT equal to EUR 520 million has grown by 12% due to some extraordinary effects. Group net profit amounted to EUR 268 million, increased by 5%. Capital expenditure amounted to EUR 830 million and decreased slightly compared to 2023, mainly due to the completion of work on environmental development plans and lower corporate investments. The net financial debt is below EUR 4.1 billion, while the ratio, the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 3.2, in line with the trajectory of the business plan. I will now give the floor to Giovanni for the in-depth discussion of business dynamics.

Thank you very much, Luca, and good afternoon to all of you. As usual, we may begin with the company performance analysis from Networks business units, starting with Slide #5. 28% increase in EBITDA equivalent to plus EUR 103 million is mainly attributable to the investments made in previous years, which contributed to an increase in the RAB plus 11%, with an impact on revenue constraints of approximately EUR 17 million. Number two is the revision of regulatory parameters, which also incorporated the inflation recovery, generating a positive effect of an increase of EUR 77 million. The integrated water service also had a positive impact on the extraordinary recovery on inflation on operating costs in 2023, amounting to EUR 9 million and to the positive contribution of Acquaenna, a company consolidated starting from June 2023, which accounted for EUR 3 million. Investments of EUR 363 million have grown by 2% and focused mainly on improving the efficiency of the integrated water service and improving the service quality of the electricity grid with an increase of 3% and 2%, respectively. Finally, the increase of EUR 300 million in RAB, plus 11%, was achieved, thanks to the contribution of 50% of the investments made in past years, the remaining 50% for the regulatory revaluation linked to the application of the deflator with approximately 5.5% of weighted average rate applied in 2024. Moving on to the environment BU, Slide #6, we can see growth of 4%, which confirms the recovery of profitability expected in Q4 in waste treatment and disposal segment. The collection activities reported an increase in EBITDA of EUR 39 million, thanks to a full recognition in tariff of the additional costs due to the inflation to the efficiency achieved in operations and the conclusion of the approval process for a new business plan for services, which include compared to the previous year, a different accounting of revenues by reclassifying them for treatment to collection activities. The effect of this reclassification from disposal to collection is worth about EUR 14 million. Treatment and disposal activities decreased by EUR 28 million due to 3 factors that had a negative impact of about EUR 10 million each. Number one, a worsening of the energy scenario with the reduction in revenues on WTE electricity and heat production; number two, reduced plan availability due partially to planned multiyear maintenance activities and extraordinary failure of the Turin WTE and the gradual exhaustion of the disposal capacity of some landfills; number three, higher operating costs together with the non-full situation of the new material recovery treatment plants. Overall, the volumes of waste managed throughout the year have increased by 5%, supported by municipal waste, plus 6% and offset by a decrease in special waste, minus 2%. And this drop was due to a lower availability of landfills and less brokering activity. Finally, the consolidation of Sienambiente makes it possible to partially mitigate the shrinking results of the plants with a positive contribution of about EUR 15 million. From the perspective of investments, the decrease is attributable to the conclusion of our cycle of investments that led us in recent years to build several waste treatment plants, but also to review our sorting system. The Energy business unit during 2024, Slide #7, due to the lower energy prices has suffered a little bit and also because of the end of the state superbonus, 110% on renovation work for residential customers. Specifically, we have number one, so renewable generation volumes grew by 34% due to the effect of increased rainfall with a positive effect on hydroelectric production and also an increase in PV plant capacity in operation, which at the end of 2024 reached 217 megawatts. The higher electricity volumes offset the effects compared to the previous year of the drop in energy prices. It is very important to note that the average selling price in 2023 was supported by hedging activities, which was carried out in advance in 2022, which allowed back then for higher selling prices than the market prices. The average selling price of renewable generation for 2024 was around EUR 120 per megawatt hour compared to EUR 160 in 2023. The second point, the district heating result decreased by EUR 17 million. This decrease is mainly due to the reduction in sales prices, which were affected by the indexing downward in natural gas prices. This factor led to a reduction in margins despite the growth in volume of plus 8%. This increase is due to the development of the volume served and also to a higher consumption, which was affected by favorable weather conditions. Third point is related to CCGT cogeneration and thermoelectric plants that saw a drop of more than EUR 60 million in margin mainly due to a narrowing clean spark spread, but also lower volumes due to a reduction in production now with positive margins and MSD market contribution, which is still pretty weak, 4 points about energy efficiency. These activities consolidated the drop of EUR 37 million due to regulatory developments concerning upgrading works related to the superbonus incentive. This also led to a delay in the start of plant work sites related to the [ on loss ]. We close up with Slide #8 with the Market BU, which consolidates the growth in margins and continues the positive trend of acquiring new customers, especially electrical customers. Our commercial strategy is characterized by maintenance of high quality of our customer base and also in the -- looking for new high-value customers, i.e., with low churn rate, low unpaid rate and high profitability with commercial profiles with a high propensity to subscribe to bundled offers of products and services. The portfolio at the end of 2024 consists of 2.3 million retail and small business customers. And today, thanks to the consolidation of EGEA, we have already reached 2.5 million customers with electric customers being more than gas customers. The kind of customer specification is also evident from the volumes sold. The graphs are above right, which show electricity volumes up by 12% and gas volumes down by 7%. Higher volumes and the growth in the number of customers contributed to the increase in profitability of electricity sales, while gas decreased due to the effect of accounting in Q4 of 2023 of a positive one-off of -- which accounted for EUR 25 million. Net of this nonrecurring item, the business line would have grown by 18% year-on-year. Finally, the excellent trend in the sale of products and services to retail customers and bundled with commodities continues. In 2024, we have exceeded 400,000 contracts and registered a growth of 7% compared to the previous year. Let's move on to Slide #9, and let's look at the elements that lead from EBITDA to group net profit. Amortization increased by EUR 55 million, of which EUR 43 million were due to investments made and EUR 12 million related to newly consolidated companies. Provisions and write-downs account for 2 extraordinary items. The first is related to the provisioning in the financial year 2023 of EUR 41 million to cover the risk from the Sostegni ter Decree, which is also known as the extra profits decree. The second is related to the write-down in the year 2024 of EUR 9 million due to a fire, which involved the plant for the treatment of plastic from separated waste collection, making it nonoperational. Also, there was a slight increase in provisions for bad debt due to the increase in receivable arising from the direct billing of citizens for the waste collection service. This service in the past was carried out by municipalities as well as an increasing effect of Acquaenna, a company operating in the integrated water cycle. The stabilization of cost of debt to 2.17%, in line with the business plan forecast was possible, thanks to carefully managing liquidity, which also mitigated the impact of higher rates of the 2 green bonds issued in 2024 compared to the very low rates of the bond maturing in November 2024. Finally, group net profit for the period amounted to EUR 268 million, with an increase of 5% year-on-year growth. There's an increase in the tax rate, 30.2% compared to 26% of last year. This tax rate was characterized by nontaxability of extraordinary contributions to compensate for the high cost of energy. There was also an increase in profit with an increase of EUR 8 million compared to 2023. I would like to wrap up with the net financial position, Slide #10. At the end of 2024, debt increased by EUR 149 million compared to last year. Operating cash flow, which was positively impacted by EBITDA and the release of tax credits from superbonus amounting to EUR 250 million, amounted to EUR 1 billion and covered both technical investments amounting to EUR 830 million and financial investments amounted to EUR 112 million, mainly attributable to the acquisition of the minority stake in EGEA, EUR 87 million and the consolidation of Sienambiente, EUR 19 million. Net working capital increased by EUR 109 million due to the higher tariff receivables, not immediately billable in the regulated business for water and environment generated by the regulatory increases for the portion of exceeding the so-called tariff cap as well an increase for credits for contributors not received for -- that were not collected related to investments made under the NRP. I'll now give the floor to Luca for the conclusion of the presentation.

Thank you very much. Before the closing remarks, I would like to focus on the recent inorganic growth operations shown on Slide 11, which will characterize the current year. Since January 2025, Iren has been consolidated EGEA, owing 52.77% of company shares. The Board of Director resolved to exercise the call option from the 31st of March to purchase the remaining shares in order to get to 100% of share. This will allow Iren to strengthen its presence in all businesses to accelerate industrial development processes and to extend district heating in Alessandria and to optimize governance in order to extract synergy more efficiently and quickly. Up to date, we have already intervened by integrating procurement and energy management functions within the group. And we are also moving on with the coordination and integration of the information system. From the industrial standpoint, EGEA generates an increase in total RAB among water service and gas distribution of more than EUR 100 million, 300,000 inhabitants are served by waste collection, 10 million cubic meters of district heating volumes and almost 200,000 gas and power high-volume customers, increasing Iren's presence in the reference territories and in particular, in the area of Cuneo. This is a strategic area between Piedmont and Liguria. In terms of EBITDA, we expect a contribution in 2025 of about EUR 50 million to EUR 55 million. Let's now take a look on the right of the slide and focusing on the Iren Acqua transaction in February. Iren strengthened its position as a national player in the water sector by acquiring 40% of Iren Acqua held by F2i SGR through its funds, thus moving to full control of the management company of the integrated water cycle of the ATO in Genoa. As per industrial plan, this sector is a priority business area for our development strategy, both for its positioning among the first national operators in the sector and for the opportunities that are related to the very important know-how developed in the management of the water assessment system. Furthermore, the acquisition of 40% minority stake in Iren Acqua allows the company to merge into Ireti, simplifying governance, rationalizing operating costs and enabling new investments in our historical territories. From a financial point of view, the transaction had a positive effect in 2025 of EUR 20 million due to the reduction in profit attributable to minorities. Getting now to the closing remarks, Slide #12. We can take a look at our expectations for 2025. We see a growing EBITDA with a range between EUR 1,340 million and EUR 1,360 million, supported by major investments in regulated businesses as outlined in the industrial plan, the development of collection activities and the recovery of profitability of treatment plants for about EUR 10 million. In the coming months, we'll see the completion of the new paper treatment plant and preparatory activities for the construction of the fourth line of 250 kilotons at the WTE in Turin. Last week, the Piedmont Council approved the construction of the new line and really hope that in the following months, all procedures will be completed from the economic and environmental sustainability point of view. High availability of water in the reservoirs at the beginning of the year supported these results with the expected hydroelectric production between 1.3 and 1.4 tons watt per hour and the commissioning of 20 megawatts photovoltaic plant in Noto by the end of the year. Normalization of profitability of customers who, in 2024 have a non-repeatable extra marginality of about EUR 20 million in gas sales activities and integration of recently acquired companies together with the continuation of operational streamlined activities. Technical investments planned for 2025 will amount to EUR 900 million, plus EUR 500 million in financial investments, of which approximately EUR 282 million related to Iren Acqua and EUR 250 million to the consolidation of EGEA, including the related debt. The net debt EBITDA ratio will be stable, and we expect to get to 3.2 considering the hybrid bond issue. We can now move on to the Q&A session. Thank you very much.

Question number one comes from [indiscernible] Javier Suarez, Mediobanca.

Now my first question is on the content of Slide 12, I mean, the guidance. Can you please give us some color concerning the gross technical, so M&A outflow? So once again, EUR 500 million M&A outflow once again, EUR 0.5 billion because I think this is where we will see -- I mean, the exercise of the call option together with the Iren Acqua. But as for Iren Acqua, if I remember exactly, we also had one part of the business foreseen for the next years or so. So this is to understand if you have something more in this section, EUR 0.5 billion? Or is this just what from Iren generated this outlook? So this is my first question. The second question concerns the guidance for 2025 in terms of EBITDA. I heard what the CEO said in terms of mean-median moving average. So I'd like to know something more about what you expect in the generation business and Market business. So what are basically the key drivers that you see for 2025? And what about the effect on the contribution of EBITDA of these 2 activities? And what about the benefits of what you named operational efficiencies on a corporate level? Do you think that this can be a significant element to give a contribution to EBITDA in 2025? This is my last question. Concerning, once again, the guidance, 2025. Can you expand a little bit on the guidance on the rate for the following year? Yes, this is my first question, M&A.

Now as for EGEA, the value is EUR 75 million for the call, EGEA and EUR 175 million of debt, so net financial position. Iren Acqua, EUR 282.5 million. Then we have something very small, which is the Iren Acqua minus EUR 13 million and then EUR 6 million M&A, but this is not very important. I mean the big chunks are the EGEA, EUR 75 million and then Iren Acqua, EUR 282.5 million, once again, EUR 75 million. So this is for the first question. As for the guidance of the EBITDA acceleration, I have to say that there's something which is sure and certain as of today, which is the increase of income from capacity markets. We have already held the auctions, and this will turn into plus EUR 20 million margin. We also have some visibility today on the reduction of prices having to do with the sale of energy from renewables, the difference should be more or less EUR 10 versus 2024. There's another very important element concerning the volumes, I mean, the hydro volumes. 2024, as we've said before, was an exceptional unique year. This means we have generated 1.45 tera of hydro electricity. And we think that in 2025, so this year, our production, so our generation may reach around 1.35 tera. And at the end of December last year, we have had quite a high level, I mean, in the catchment areas. And once again, versus the historical average, I would say, plus 80 gigawatt hours. And as for the [indiscernible] which is the other key element, which is really determining in the margin. So once again, as for the clean spark, we have some signs which are not very good in terms of margin in the second half of the year. But we also think that what is happening is, let's say, a lower level of importance of the forward versus the delivery. So also on a full year basis, we think we can have a spread, which should be EUR 2 to EUR 3 per megawatt hour. Now as for the market, as we've said before, 2025 is delivering an extraordinary result in terms of the power line, but also in terms of selling gas. But this depends heavily on the extraordinary margin, which is around EUR 20 million. And this is what we made on the gas line. And this is what was already included into our accounts starting from Q1. Now as for net profits, now we usually don't deliver any guidance. Let me just -- we will at the end of the Q1 accounts. So I'm sure there's a positive impact on the purchase of the minority on Iren Acqua, so EUR 20 million, but also the purchase of the minorities that we have communicated this morning. So this is EGEA, once again, and its contribution will be important because it will help us implement this result. Let's say that the platform that we have created with this extraordinary operations, as Giovanni said before, so Iren Acqua and EGEA, they may free up further synergies. But of course, this is still to be confirmed. So I think that at the end of Q1, there will be a sort of a general assessment, which is what we usually do. Now back to our scope, we may think of something like EUR 10 million of synergies in 2025, which is very consistent with EUR 8 million we got in 2024. So this is sort of basically a continuity. So we will keep generating synergies, thanks to efficiency improvement processes, which is what we have implemented also in the past years. And of course, we will do the same also in 2025.

Next question is from Francesco Sala's line, Banca Akros.

I would like to talk about the renewal of the electricity concessions. So any updates on your side or which visibility do you have about this? Are there some assessments going on or even assessments to be done? Because apparently, we will have new suppliers on the market, for example, Italgas? Last question. Any acquisitions on the extension of the electricity concessions on your side? So what do you expect and what the impact may be throughout the year?

Thank you. Now as for the hydro concessions, what we expect is the first auction on the smallest concession within this year, so end of 2025. Once again, this is what we expect, but this is not guaranteed for sure. Of course, we will take part into that auction, and we are already working on it. As for the gas distribution or dispatchment, we will keep doing what we have done so far. So we will keep managing them, but we'll also monitor possible auctions around us to scavenge for new opportunities. Of course, what we need is the right price and the right synergy, otherwise we won't take part in the auction. We will be very opportunistic on gas. Now as for electricity, so the power grid, the same thing will happen. I mean, if Enel sales networks, which are close or grids close to our territories, we will take this into account. So once again, if we have the right synergies at the right price, of course, we may take this into account. Well, this is not something we are considering today because Enel is not selling these assets. Can you please repeat the first part of the question because we couldn't hear you?

Yes, of course. The first question was on the hedging policies. So how much did you hedge in 2025? So how much of the production was hedged in 2025 and at what price?

Thank you. Now the coverage is now 80% of our production of renewable energy. So the total renewable production in terms of hydro plus PV plus waste to energy, this is 2.3 tera. So this is the order of magnitude. So once again, we have already covered 80% and the price is EUR 105 to EUR 110 per megawatt. Now we have a percent rate, which is much smaller in terms of coverage on the thermal production. So in this case, the production is 6.7 tera. And as of today, the coverage rate is 30%. The spread is EUR 2.3 per megawatt. So as we said before, the coverage of the thermal production is a little lower because, of course, we don't have positive signals for the second half of the year. So once again, we're just waiting for the market to stabilize on positive results. And this is what happened in the recent months. As for our customers, we need to cover now the 20% of customers that we have on fixed price. In that case, the coverage rate is 100%.

[Operator Instructions] Next question is from Emanuele Oggioni's line, Kepler Cheuvreux.

I have some questions, so the first one being the following. The question is on the EGEA's guidance. So if I'm not mistaken, in our call back in November '24, I remember that the contribution was something like 10% higher, so between EUR 55 million and EUR 60 million EBITDA. It was not EUR 50 million to EUR 55 million. I had written down EUR 55 million to EUR 60 million. So can you give us some color about this? Question number two. I'm talking about hedging for 2026. As for 2025, my question is, do you have some coverage? I mean do you have some hedging on 2026 as concerns the production, I mean, of renewable sources or waste to energy? And the third question is the recovery of profitability in terms of waste because you said that in 2025, you should be able, I mean, to have some positive areas, including a recovery of profitability from the waste-to-energy plants experiencing some problems in the past, plus the operation of new WTE plants. So once again, can you expand on this plus the specific items on EBITDA of this business unit? Last but not least, final question. So question number four is on the asset rotation. Now in the past, you said that you would dispose of some assets, for example, some minority stakes in PV, so in the photovoltaic systems or other assets. So can you tell us more about this? So is this still an open possibility?

Thank you. As for the EGEA's guidance, yes, you're right. I mean our assessment was between EUR 55 million and EUR 60 million, but I have to say that the scope has changed because now we have minus EUR 5.5 million. And of course, this is the delta that you have seen in your question. So this is the consolidation scope of the 2 companies, including Ambiente, so versus what we had forecasted. So in other words, we have to say that we still have to make a decision. So we may consolidate the 2 companies because we may want to transfer them, so to sell them. So this means we may free up some assets. We may also get some capital gains. And for prudential reasons, the EUR 5.5 million are still missing just because we haven't consolidated these 2 companies into Ambiente. So you are correct, but once again, the scope has changed. As for 2026 hedge, we have already started our activities. And well, basically, on the, if you will, of renewables, percent rate is around 30% of total production. So once again, 2.2 tera and the price is around EUR 105 to EUR 110 per megawatt. Now I have to say that today, as for the 2026 market, it's not very liquid. So if you have calendar-based products, well, in that case, we don't have many opportunities in terms of hedging. No hedging on the thermal because once again, we don't have any positive spread of information, if you will. So as for Ambiente, one part of the Ambiente business is taking into account some reduction of the margin level in 2024 concerning their plants. But we already have a good visibility and the recovery by around EUR 10 million in 2025. And this may also be something like EUR 10 million -- EUR 20 million. So EUR 10 million plus EUR 10 million, totaling EUR 20 million in 2026 because, I mean, the plant's saturation level will increase, especially of the FORSU and pallet in Vercelli plants. So these 2 plants will be saturated. Once again, we will have the possibility to increase and then stabilize the margin level of this kind of plants. As for your question on the transfer of the PV or photovoltaic asset you mentioned in your question, well, I have to say that this population is currently being frozen, if you will, for a very specific reason. And the reason is the regulations on BES. I mean the batteries are just like FER X, so the 2 regulations are sort of changing. So first of all, we need to know what happens on the FER X and BESS in terms of regulatory framework before considering any possible option because we think that this kind of regulation may trigger positive synergies on our assets. And if so, we may dispose of them, but once we have the right conditions. So for the time being, we're just sitting and waiting because, of course, we don't want to reduce the value of these assets. We think they are very valuable assets.

I do agree. May I have a follow-up question on the Market division? So you're talking about the normalization of gas sales. So basically minus the EUR 20 million in '25 versus 2024 because of this normalization. So my question is, I mean, apart from this normalization on gas, so once again, I'm talking about the unit margins. I mean what do you think about the unit margins in '25 and in '26? So do you think competition will be back on the market? Or do you think that unit margins per customer won't change, so they will be satisfactory instead of going down, okay? So if at all possible, just some color on the margins.

You're right. I mean there's a strong competition on the retail market. But this has an impact on the churn, not on the price for the time being. So once again, no, we do not expect any profitability drops. What we expect is flat margin levels.

Once again, next question is from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo.

I have one question, I mean, sort of a broad, wide question, which is capital structure and capital allocation. Now I have the impression that capital intensity, I mean, all the investments you will have in 2025 as per your guidance seems to be a little bit smaller than the plan. Now is this due to M&A? So I mean all of the commitments that you have to pay for in 2025? And considering this move and going back to power concessions, you may be required, I mean, to pay an upfront fee. So these are agreements with the government basis, and you may also have other M&A opportunities. So which kind of flexibility do you have in your CapEx plan so that the leverage is more or less the one you have in the guidance, which is 3.2x? So apart from the individual consequences, I mean, what is your broad general strategy and approach considering all the points I have just raised? Question number two is on the waste-to-energy production, so thermal production. I think you're considering 6 to 7 tera in 2025, which is sort of flat versus what you've been able to generate in '24. So in terms of the very first data of the beginning of the year, the production seems to be soaring. So does your guidance also consider these upsides? Or are you only conservative? Or once again, considering your assets portfolio, do you think that this production is sort of normalized?

Yes. Now in terms of CA or capital allocation 2025, we do consider less investments on renewables. And I have to say that for [ X ], I have to say that, yes, this has been approved. There will be auctions later in the year. So we don't think there are major opportunities, I mean, to start the projects in 2025. We also experienced a drop in terms of environment, so the investments on environment. What is also very important is another key topic that you have introduced considering the concession fee that we may have to pay in order to pay for the 20-year-long concession. So the estimate is EUR 60 million. So this is basically more or less 10% of our RAB. So this is what we think may happen in 2026. But let me tell you something important. Our business plan, as you know very well, includes a very, very strong growth of investments on the electricity grid. So we will double our RAB in 2030. So no, we don't think there would be any additional need to guarantee the requirement, which is required so as to get the extension of the concession, which means spending more money or continued investment. You're right that we will have a maximum EUR 60 million cash out. But as for the increase of the so-called investments, so the investments extraordinary plan, we are fully covered. Let me also tell you that we also have some flexible investments, which is what we have represented when we introduced and described our business plan in June, EUR 100 million a year. Now this means that this can be adjusted. So this is very flexible. At the same time, of course, we need to keep unchanged all of the ratios that we have to comply with. So in terms of FN, EBITDA but also in terms of ratings. So once again, we would like to keep a AAA without excitement.

[Operator Instructions] We don't have other questions or any other follow-up. So the floor goes to Giulio Domma so as to close today's conference. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you for your questions and for your attention. So we will see you soon for the next quarterly presentation. Thank you so much once again. Enjoy the rest of the evening. Bye. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]