Iren SpA (IRE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Iren Group conference call. My name is [ Sak ], and I will be your conference operator for today's event. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to Carlo Dubini, Head of Investor Relations, who will begin today's conference. Thank you, and please go ahead.

[Interpreted] Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the conference call to present the Iren Group's results for 30 June 2026. The results will be presented by Executive Chairman, Luca Dal Fabbro; and CFO, Giovanni Gazza. At the end of the presentation, we will hold the usual Q&A session. I will now hand over to Luca to present the results for the period.

[Interpreted] Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Results approved moments ago by the Board of Directors confirm the strength of our business model and provides solid foundations for the growth expected in the second half of the year. First half performance was supported by significant organic growth in our regulated activities, demonstrating the quality and resilience of our business portfolio, which is characterized by a 72% share of EBITDA generated by regulated and semi-regulated activities. An additional contribution came from our efficiency synergy plan, which generated about EUR 11 million of benefits during the period, already reaching 55% of the target expected for the full year 2026. These positive factors were partly offset by unfavorable weather conditions, which affected hydroelectric production, already reduced by extraordinary maintenance activities planned at the beginning of the year, and which had already required reservoir levels to be drawn down at the end of 2025. From a financial standpoint, operating cash flow amounted to EUR 512 million, allowing us to fully finance our investment plan of approximately EUR 410 million, up 4% compared with the first half of 2025. Turning to Page 3 as usual, we review the main economic and financial results for the period. EBITDA reached EUR 732 million, up 1% compared with the same period last year. This result was mainly supported by three factors. First, organic growth of approximately EUR 30 million during the semester, driven by our network businesses, contributed around EUR 10 million overall, also thanks to the evolution of the regulatory framework, mainly affecting a higher reflection deflator and the recognition of higher operating costs. Second, a favorable energy market environment, both in the day-ahead market and in the ancillary services market and capacity market which generated an overall improvement of approximately EUR 50 million compared with last year's result. Finally, the progress of our synergy plan, which as already mentioned, contributed EUR 11 million during the period. These positive effects were partly offset by several negative factors. In particular, lower hydroelectric production, impacted by the lack of rainfall and reduced water availability in reservoirs, which resulted in a production decline of approximately 190 GWh, the progressive normalization of gas sales margins in line with expectations, the slowdown of energy efficiency projects, particularly in the area of repeating initiatives. This is a rather general factor on the market. EBITDA amounted to EUR 380 million, down 2%, mainly due to higher depreciation following the commissioning of investments carried out over the last 12 months. Group net income amounted to EUR 182 million, which was offset by a higher tax rate compared with last year, standing at 30.5%. Technical investments during the period amounted to EUR 409 million, up 4% compared with last year, mainly driven by investments by the energy business unit related to the ongoing installation of air coolers at thermal power plants as well as the expansion of distribution networks. During the semester, significant investments were also made in the development of water and electricity networks, waste treatment and disposal facilities, including the completion of an organic waste treatment plant in Liguria and digital transformation through IT projects. Net financial debt increased by EUR 54 million compared with year-end 2025, despite the payment of EUR 189 million in dividends. With this, I will hand over to Giovanni for a more detailed review of the performance of our individual businesses and the main operational developments during the semester.

[Interpreted] Thank you, Luca, and good afternoon to all of you from my side as well. As usual, we will start our review with the networks business unit represented on Page 4. In the first half of 2026, the networks business confirmed its growth trajectory, reporting EBITDA of EUR 274 million, up 4% compared with the same period last year. The growth becomes even more significant when considering the impact of non-recurring items. In particular, in the first half of 2025, non-recurring items contributed approximately EUR 21 million, EUR 8 million related to the technical quality incentive scheme, EUR 3 million related to adjustments for the integrated water service, and EUR 10 million related to inflation adjustments of gas operating costs in accordance with the ARERA Resolution number 570. This was in 2025. In the current semester, by contrast, we recorded only EUR 5 million of non-recurring items relating to water service adjustments. Excluding recurring items, year-on-year EBITDA growth would have been 8%, corresponding to an increase of EUR 90 million. EBITDA growth was therefore driven by organic growth and positive regulatory effects, which contributed approximately EUR 10 million together, with a significant contribution from the group's synergy plan, which amounted overall to EUR 11 million. The positive performance of this business unit was mainly supported by the integrated water service and the electricity distribution, two business areas that continue to benefit from our investment-driven growth strategy, as demonstrated by the increase in their [ RAB ], up 6% and 4% respectively. As you can see on the lower right side, capital investments by the business unit reached EUR 177 million, mainly focused on water service networks and electricity distribution networks. For electricity distribution, we also expect a significant accelerator in the final part of the year with investments expected to increase by approximately EUR 30 million compared with 2025. These investments are aimed at making the electricity network more resilient and better equipped to support the growing electrification of consumption as well as the impact of increasingly challenging climate conditions, especially in the summer. Among the main operational developments during the semester, we highlight the signing, also following the evolution of previous legal dispute, of the premium agreement for the sale of Egea Acque, the operator of the integrated water service in part of the Cuneo province to the in-house company CO.GE.S.I. Completion of this transfer process is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Second, the continued progress of the main infrastructure projects in the water, electricity, and gas sectors, as well as the strengthening of smart metering and remote reading programs. These initiatives will contribute over the coming years to further improve service quality and operational efficiency. Moving to Slide 5, the environment business unit recorded EBITDA growth of 12%, reaching EUR 148 million. This increase was supported by the recognition of extraordinary adjustments relating to previous periods amounting to EUR 60 million, linked to the higher valuation of sorted waste treatment activities, as well as by the collection of a EUR 4 million insurance reimbursement related to the fire that occurred in 2024 at a plastic sorting facility. Looking now at the main operational trends in the period, we can highlight that the waste collection business increased by approximately EUR 1 million compared to last year, following the tariff increases introduced by regulation, despite higher operating costs related to the increase in personal expenses due to contract renewals and fuel costs. WTE reported an EBITDA of EUR 60 million, substantially stable compared with last year. During the first half of 2026, performance was impacted by a temporary plant shutdown due to technical issues, first at the Portibone CWT plant, and subsequently at the two waste-to-energy facility. Material recovery plants reported annual result of EUR 8 million and showed mixed trends. The performance of organic waste treatment plants or landfill plants remained negative, and the revenue is a limited part in recovery, and they were impacted by lower treated volumes due to a plant shutdown lasting approximately two months, and conversely, the performance of the other material recovery plants was positive, benefiting from higher operational efficiency at the wood treatment plant, higher prices for the treatment of separately collected plastic waste, and the ramp-up of a new paper and cardboard sorting and recovery facility. The negative trend in landfills continued, as also shown in the chart on the right-hand side, which highlights the lower volumes managed, down 8%. This is due to the situation at certain sites and EBITDA decreased by a total of EUR 4 million, and this reduction is expected to be partly recovered in the second half of the year, thanks to higher waste inflows following the expansion of certain sites, including the CSAI landfill, which now has an additional available capacity of 80,000 tons, the [ Manduria ] site, with available capacity of 125,000 tons until 2027. Another two facilities, Barricalla and Poggio alla Villa will have available landfill capacity until 2035. The energy business unit on Page 6 closed the first half the year with EBITDA of EUR 166 million, down 5% compared with last year, mainly due to lower hydroelectric production volumes and fewer energy efficiency projects. Analyzing the performance of the different business lines and the main year-on-year variation. For renewable generation, hydroelectric, photovoltaic, recording an overall EBITDA decrease of EUR 30 million. In particular, hydroelectric production recorded an overall decline of EUR 50 million during the semester due to lower [ hydroelectric ] volumes, down 190 GWh, and the expiry of a significant portion of green certificates, down 70 GWh in the semester, with an expected impact of around 200 GWh for the full year. These are factors reduced results by EUR 21 million and EUR 4 million respectively. These impacts were partially offset by higher captured energy prices, particularly, on unhedged hydroelectric production. Secondly, photovoltaic volumes increased by 10% since the commissioning of two new photovoltaic plants in Noto and Caposetto. This growth was achieved despite some technical issues that prevented full utilization of installed capacity, and to a lesser extent, the frequent curtailment measures requested by Terna, particularly during the spring period. Overall, photovoltaic generation contributed positively with EUR 2 million during the period. Generation from CCGT and thermal power plants increased by EUR 5 million. This improvement was mainly attributable to merchant thermal generation activity at Turbigo, which increased electricity production by 22%, corresponding to 220 GWh, benefiting both from improved capture clean spark spreads and from a higher number of operating hours. Cogeneration of CCGT plants was substantially stable, also due to the lower availability of the Moncalieri plant following issues that emerged in the final weeks of June, affecting the cooling system caused by lower water flows in the channels serving the plant due to the dry period in the last two months. The capacity market and the ancillary services market provided a growing contribution compared with the first half of 2025, generating overall EBITDA of approximately EUR 63 million, up EUR 8 million year-on-year. In particular, the MSD market increased by approximately EUR 6 million compared with last year, highlighting attractive opportunities for operators, like us, with flexible assets and the ability to modulate plant output during the periods of high demand. [ 4th ] point. District heating. It recorded a 4% decline in volume sold due to an earlier than usual end to the heating season compared with 2025 due to a warm April. Despite the lower volumes, EBITDA increased by EUR 6 million. Finally, as already mentioned, energy efficiency recorded a lower level of activity due to the reduction in rebuilding projects which had still represented a significant contribution during 2025. We conclude the review of business units with the market business units presented on Page 7. In the first half of 2026, the business unit recorded EBITDA of EUR 144 million, down 2% compared with the same period last year. The performance mainly affects 2 factors that were already highlighted during the previous quarterly update in March. The progressive normalization of unit margins in the gas business with an impact of approximately 5 years of EBITDA per customer. This trend was expected following the exceptional market conditions experienced in previous years and will continue during the year, although to a lesser extent and the reduction in the customer base, which also resulted in lower gas sales. We also highlight a reduction in average gas consumption per retail customer, reflecting greater attention to energy usage in a context of generally higher energy costs. The competitive environment remained highly challenging, resulting in a net reduction of approximately 50,000 customers during the semester. Against this backdrop, the group decided to push its strategy, increasing its focus on value creation, prioritizing the quality of acquired customers and favoring physical acquisition channels rather than simply pursuing customer-based expansion. In particular, we progressively reduced mass customer acquisition campaigns and investments in digital channels characterized by high acquisition costs and higher-than-average churn rates. To understand the evolution of EBITDA to group net income, let us move to Page 8. Starting from the operating performance already discussed, we can highlight first, the depreciation and amortization increased by approximately EUR 30 million, mainly due to the commitment of investments carried out over the last 12 months, in line with the group's infrastructure development plan. Second, provisions for doubtful receivables increased by approximately EUR 2 million, mainly within the environment business unit due to the transition from a collection model based on municipal taxation to a system based on a service fee directly paid by users to the group. Third, the average cost of debt remains stable at 2.36%, confirming the effectiveness of our financial management strategy in a market environment that continues to show elements of volatility. Fourth, the tax rate, including an increase in the IRAP tax rate, so that's approximately 30.5%. Fifth, the result attributable to minority interests decreased by approximately EUR 2 million, mainly following lower performances recorded by some equity accounted companies. Taking all these effects into account, group net income reached EUR 182 million, substantially in line with the first half of last year, with an increase of only EUR 2 million. We complete our economic and financial review with the evolution of the net financial position illustrated on Page 9. As of 30th June 2026, net financial debt stood at EUR 4,276 million, increasing by EUR 54 million compared with year-end 2025. Analyzing the main drivers of the change, we can see that operating cash flow reached EUR 530 million, more than covering technical investments during the period. This was also supported by the tax credit disposal program related to the Eco Superbonus scheme, which continued during the semester and generated total cash proceeds of EUR 146 million. With regard to net working capital, the increase of EUR 283 million can be attributed to the following factors. EUR 50 million related to the medium to long-term receivables, associated mainly with extra-cap tariff items in the water cycle and waste collection businesses, and the remaining EUR 230 million cash flow was driven by 2 seasonal effects. First, investment payments reflecting the acceleration in project executio occurred at the end of last year, with the related cash outflow from payments occurring mainly in the first part of the current year. Second, the seasonal effect related to CCGT and thermal generation. During the winter quarters, high production levels generate a favorable working capital effect, as the increased sales revenues are collected faster than payments for gas procurement. And finally, the item related to M&A and disposals includes cash proceeds of EUR 68 million, derived from the sale to Cogesi of the integrated water service business in the province of Cuneo, which was already discussed when commenting on the networks business unit. I will now hand back to Luca for the closing remarks and for the update of the 2026 financial guidance.

[Interpreted] Thank you, Giovanni. We will conclude the presentation, as usual, with an overview of the outlook for the coming months. As anticipated during our previous conference call, the expected growth for 2026 will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and in particular, in the fourth quarter, for various reasons. First, we expect the growth trajectory of the networks and related businesses to continue, supported by ongoing investments. Second, excluding the one-off item that affected the results of environment business units in 2025-2026, we expect EBITDA to remain broadly in line with the previous year. The higher operating costs in waste collection will be offset by the improved profitability of material recovery plans. Third, we expect a positive performance from generation activities in the coming months, thanks to a more favorable energy market environment with higher spot prices, despite an 80% hedging level on second half production, and Cleanspark spreads that continue to ensure adequate profitability for thermal generation. These factors will offset the lower hydroelectric volumes expected also in the coming months as a carryover effect of the low hydroelectric availability experienced during the second quarter. For the market business unit, we expect a progressive reduction in margins due to a highly challenging competitive environment, and we expect the continued implementation of our efficiency synergy plan, which we estimate will generate approximately EUR 20 million of benefits by year-end. Considering the adverse weather conditions and the consequent impact on hydroelectric production, we have decided to update our 2026 guidance. The revised guidance reflects the lower contribution expected from hydroelectric generation, with expected production volumes reduced from 1,200 GWh to 1,050 GWh. The group's industry fundamentals remain unchanged, and the positive outlook for the other businesses is confirmed. In particular, we have placed EBITDA growth of approximately 3% compared with 2025. Technical investments of approximately EUR 950 million. Net financial debt to EBITDA ratio for this table at around 3.1 times, implying expected year-end net working capital above the 2025 level by more than EUR 150 million. Group net income growth of approximately 2% compared with 2025. With this, we have concluded the presentation, and we can now open the Q&A session. Thank you for your attention.

[Operator Instructions] The first question arise from Fabio Suarez.

[Interpreted] The first question is about the guidance and the guidance update that you made, which is relatively low. The question is, is this due only to the hydroelectric issue, which is only set up over [ ARERA ] or are there other dynamics that moved you to review the guidance and made it lower? I would like to know the different moving pieces. Second question. About an update on the negotiations and the review of legal framework for the hydroelectric generators in Italy. I would like to know if you have some comments on the consultation document of ARERA on the implementation of the model from 2028 onwards, and what the dynamics you will see in the supply business during the second half of the year. Thank you.

[Interpreted] Okay, the guidance update is linked to our review of analytical production. In May, we had foreseen analytical production of 1.2 TWh, and today, we foresee 1.05 TWh. So we corrected the amount of the GWh because we don't see it in our reservoirs, and also in the turbines part. So this update takes into account the progress in the autumn period, because the first part of the year is characterized by snow, and the second part of the year by rainfalls, and we have considered at the moment a standard moment for the last 10 years. This EBITDA reduction is partially offset. We don't see a direct effect of this 150 GWh that amount to about EUR 80 million. It's not directly affecting the EBITDA because we have a recovery in the business unit, in the network business unit. As you can see from the semester results that offset and reduce the overall effect due to the hydroelectric production. Concerning the concessions and the hydroelectric regulations, the government made an extension and gave ARERA the role of remodulate the investments, and there is a mechanism to increase and change specific procedures, and this applies to the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano, but it also applies to Emilia Romagna and Piedmont. So we are waiting for ARERA's response and then we can implement. We are proceeding at the regional level in Piedmont, Lombardy, et cetera, for the normalization through an extension of the concessions or through bidding. We have no clear framework at the moment, and we ask the government because we need more certainties. So at the moment, we are waiting for answers, and we ask the government for answers. So we will see in the next few months what will happen. Concerning [indiscernible]. Yes, we have seen the consultation document. We were expecting a document that was more in line with the electrical side. So we believe there could be some benefits, but not so significant. We don't have any comment, either positive or negative. We are assessing the situation and also the parameters. Also, because it cannot be applied to all the items, there are some items that may be excluded. And concerning [ gas ] distribution, we also expect a high investment profile, and we will continue to do so. Concerning the fourth question, concerning supply. In the semester, we had a reduction of EUR 5 of margin per customer. This dynamic is expected to continue in the second half, not on the same level, so we don't foresee a down EUR 10 per customer. We expect a minus EUR 6 or EUR 7 per customer. This is related to margins. As to customer base, the network business unit is still elevated. It's around 25%, 27%. And this is also due to our highly selective commercial policy. And so we expect about -- a [ reduction ] of about approximately about 40,000 customers in the second half of the year. The movement of the customer base on the offers. We see that at the moment, we see many fixed price offers, and there is a trend towards fixed price offers. Today, we have 68% at the changing rate and 25% at fixed price. This fixed price component is totally covered, so we don't have any risks due to changing prices.

The next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni.

[Interpreted] I have few questions. The first one is related to the levels, an update on the hedging levels for 2026, and in particular for 2027, in terms of volumes and the percentages of volumes, and also prices. The second question is a follow-up on the market supply, so a detail on churn rate. In the Q1 conference call, you were talking about a churn rate around 26%, 27%, and I would like to have an update on this and your view on the rest of the year. Also a breakdown, that was mentioned before, but I couldn't hear. If you talk about the exact percentage of fixed price contracts. So if you could be more granular about this. For the waste business unit, you already commented on the trend for the H2, but I would like more granularity on the recovery moving parts of the waste business in the second quarter here.

[Interpreted] Yes, concerning hedging, starting with 2026, we are in July, the end of July. We can give some anticipatory data. We covered 80% of renewable production. So this is updated with the guidance at about EUR 100 to EUR 105 for GWh. And we also have a percentage of not hedged renewable production and we have covered 105 GWh. Concerning 2027, at the moment, we keep the forecast that we already made. Renewable production 2,150 GWh, and we covered about 50% of this production at a price of EUR 100 per MWh. Concerning market supply, I confirm our full-year churn rate from 25%, 27%. There were no changes in the churn rate dynamics. We had communicated 26%, 27%, and now we communicate 25%, 27%. Concerning the mix, this is the chance to give you an update on this dynamic, because we are moving from -- the customers are moving from a fixed price to a variable price. In May, we had declared 30% fixed price, 70% variable price. Now we are at 32% fixed price and 68% variable price. So this is a progressive process. Concerning environment, the results and the semester performance was impacted by the EUR 60 million related to previous variance, which cannot be replicated in the second half of 2026. And on the other hand, we had an important one-off last year at the year-end. So in comparing the two semester and two years, we must clarify this point. From a management and business point of view, we foresee a recovery of margins on EBITDA. As you could hear, we had two technical problems in the Foggia-Bonassai site and in the Iren site, and this cannot be replicated. As we anticipated, we also have the beginning of some new landfills, some new plants, the CSAI and the Barricalla plants. So we'll have a higher contribution from these kind of plants. On the other hand, on the collection activity, we foresee it essentially in line with the one foreseen in the first semester. Overall, I would like to highlight that we are seeing in the first semester a recovery of the margins of treatment and sorting plants, plus EUR 6 million in the first semester, and this improved performance is forecasted also for the second semester.