ITOCHU Corporation (8001) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, this is Yoshihisa Suzuki, President and COO of ITOCHU Corporation. Thank you for joining us today. I'd like to give you the overview of fiscal 2020 business results and fiscal 2021 management plan. Please refer to the presentation material that you have. Page 2 shows the summary of fiscal 2020 financial results. Consolidated net profit was JPY 501.3 billion. We renewed the record 4 years in a row and exceeded JPY 500 billion level 2 years in a row, steadily achieving above JPY 500 billion net profit to consolidate our foothold. Core profit rose JPY 13.5 billion year-on-year to about JPY 485.5 billion, renewing the record 5 years in a row. Despite tough environment, we achieved strong financial results with well diversified, solid earnings base. Looking at the cash flow. Core operating cash flow was record high at about JPY 602 billion. Cash-generating capability continued to strengthen. Major positive free cash flow after deducting shareholder returns was secured 2 years in a row. Looking at the balance sheet. Net DER was 0.75x, renewing the best record, and ROE was 17%. We made a progress in terms of the high-efficiency management. As a whole, we believe we can evaluate these business results are the best in ITOCHU's history as we steadily promote the commitment-based management. Next is fiscal 2021 management plan. Please turn to Page 8. In the past 2 years, we are promoting medium-term management plan, Brand-new Deal 2020. We have been taking measures qualitatively and quantitatively to achieve targets of the profit plans, shareholder return policy and reinvention of businesses. We have been proactive. And as a result, as you see on Page 9, quantitatively, in the past 2 years, we achieved all the targets earlier. And qualitatively, we made very solid progress. As a result, we achieved the targets of the medium-term management plan, Brand-new Deal 2020, 1 year earlier. Therefore, this plan has been completed in fiscal 2020. As a result, fiscal 2021 was supposed to be the last year of this medium-term management plan, but is going to be a single-year plan. This is the year to consolidate our foothold. It is very difficult to try to foresee the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak, but at least we can expect the global economy to face tough recession for some time to come. So the business environment has changed very much from the time that we formulated the medium-term management plan. So fiscal 2021 plan will be the single-year plan to prepare for the global recession as well as the new normal after the pandemic. Please turn to Page 10. In order to consolidate our foothold, the basic policy for fiscal 2021 will be very instill "earn, cut, prevent" principles as the core of our business. At the time of the recession, the prevent and cut become very important. So by very managing the inventory and credit, we need to prevent unexpected losses, and we need to review the expenses which were taken for granted so that we can have effective use of capital. As for earn, rather than making the major investments, we need to focus on how to avoid the loss of the profit. For example, looking at the new way of setting such as online commerce or work on the products and services which [ approves ] demand increase after the pandemic. Of course, if there are any great opportunities for the investment, we would do so in the area that we are strong, and we'll continue to replace assets. The consolidated net profit target for the fiscal 2021 is JPY 400 billion. As for the other companies, they are not disclosing their specific targets. However, since we are focused on the commitment-based management, we wanted to show our determination to achieve this net profit target of JPY 400 billion. Please turn to Page 11. JPY 400 billion number includes the negative impact on profit due to the pandemic for each segment. Larger than usual loss buffer of JPY 50 billion is also included. We would like to make sure that we realize the commitment-based management under any circumstances once again this year. When we start to see some clarity into the future, based upon the necessity, we believe that we might be reviewing and revising the forecast. As for the dividend, as you see on Page 12, fiscal 2020, the official number is JPY 85 per share. And for fiscal 2021, we plan to pay JPY 88 per share. We've continued to have the progressive dividend payment. As for the share buyback, we execute actively and continuously looking at the cash flow. As for the medium- to long-term shareholder returns policy, we will steadily execute it. There has been no change to that. That concludes my part of presentation. Our CFO, Tsuyoshi Hachimura, will now give you the details of the fiscal 2020 business results and fiscal 2021 management plan.

This is Hachimura, CFO of ITOCHU Corporation. I'd like to now present the details of the fiscal 2020 business results and fiscal 2021 management plan using the PowerPoint presentation material. Page 2 shows 5 major bullet points representing the business results. The consolidated net profit exceeded JPY 500 billion level 2 years in a row and achieved JPY 501.3 billion, the highest record 4 years in a row. Core operating cash flow was above JPY 600 billion, a record high number. Looking at the profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow, you see the asterisks, they represent the record high numbers. Fiscal 2020 results were strongest quantitatively in our history. Now 3-year management plan, Brand-new Deal 2020, our target was to achieve net profit of JPY 500 billion. We achieved this target 2 years in a row and completed this a year earlier. Going to Page 3, let me explain the net profit by segment. In comparison to the previous year, the iron ore prices increased, and with the higher business dividends, Metals & Minerals profit grew by JPY 32.6 billion to JPY 111.4 billion. This was the major driver. As you see at the bottom left, the nonresource percentage was down 2 points and reached 75%, but the nonresource profit increased by JPY 300 million and reached JPY 378.3 billion, which is another record high number. In Machinery, in fiscal 2019, there was a impairment loss of the North American IPP. In fiscal 2020, the Yanase's profitability improved, and ship-related transactions showed a solid performance. So net profit increased by JPY 9.6 billion to JPY 56.7 billion. In Food, the Prima Meat Packers were made into the subsidiary, and NIPPON ACCESS showed strong results. Compared with the previous year, the net profit improved by JPY 3.6 billion and reached JPY 49.9 billion. So those companies showed the higher profit, but in Textile, due to the warm winter and the coronavirus impact and also the provision for the foreign receivables, we examined the assets very closely, and we booked JPY 10.5 billion extraordinary loss. So the profit decreased by JPY 20.7 billion year-on-year and reached JPY 9.1 billion net profit. In the previous year, in Energy & Chemicals, there was a gain on sales of the North Sea oilfields development company. In the General Products & Realty, the pulp market price declined, and there was an impairment loss in Japan, Brazil paper and pulp and the fewer logistics facility development projects. With the absence of extraordinary gains, profits of ICT & Financial Business and The 8th Company declined. CITIC equity pickup is included under the others. CITIC is showing the strength in the financial sector, excluding the share impairment loss. In fiscal 2019, the equity pickup was JPY 58.3 billion. And from that, we saw the increase of JPY 8 billion to reach JPY 66.4 billion. Dividend that we received at ITOCHU Corporation increased by JPY 2 billion to JPY 18 billion. The impact of the coronavirus on the fiscal 2020 business results in Q4 is about JPY 5 billion negative, mainly in the Textiles. But we expect those negative impact to increase from the Q4 and Q1 of fiscal 2021. Now the core profit, excluding the extraordinary profit and losses, increased JPY 13.5 billion year-on-year to reach JPY 485.5 billion, which is a record high number. Usually, the extraordinary gains lead to the higher profit after the sales. And the core profit base of JPY 485.5 billion is the #1 in our industry. Aside from higher iron ore prices and higher received dividend payment in Metals & Minerals, ICT & Financial Business, which is supported by the CTC as well as other domestic businesses, it was very strong. And the Machinery, which had the improved performance of Yanase, increased. Energy & Chemicals was flat. And in General Products & Realty, pulp market price declined. In Textile, profit declined, mainly in April due to the weaker consumption. The profits of Food and The 8th Company also declined. Now please turn to Page 6, which shows the extraordinary gains and losses. In fiscal 2020, extraordinary gain was JPY 16 billion. Up to the Q4, the cumulative extraordinary gain was JPY 64 billion. And due to the lower performance, it's mainly in the consumer-related sector, as well as the impact due to the coronavirus, and the conservative examination of the assets toward fiscal 2021, there was an impairment loss. And the Q4 number was JPY 48 billion. The details are shown here. In Q4, extraordinary loss in other gains and losses related to investments was JPY 5.5 billion. And the impairment loss in foreign company and fertilizer-related company are included here. And in fixed asset-related as well as the equity method-related, the loss was JPY 42 billion. And the bottom right shows the JPY 11 billion Japan, Brazil paper and pulp as well as the provision for the heat supply-related JPY 1 billion. There are 7 other items. So total is 9 items. Page 4 shows the cash flow. The operating cash flow was the record high increase of the JPY 400 billion, reaching JPY 878.1 billion. The impact of the conversion of the FamilyMart into the subsidiary was JPY 170 billion plus. And iron ore-related is JPY 60 billion. And operating revenue increased in other companies. The core free operating cash flow was a record high in 4 years in a row, reaching above JPY 600 billion level. After the adjustment of the cash and the deposit, the net investment cash flow was positive at JPY 290 billion. The core free cash flow was JPY 312 billion. Going to Page 27. The core free cash flow was JPY 312 billion, and the dividend payment per year of JPY 85 per share, and the share buyback that we completed in June last year was JPY 62 billion. In combining all this is about JPY 190 billion shareholder return. And core free cash flow after the shareholder returns is about JPY 123 billion positive. Despite the dividend increase every year, in addition to the JPY 300 billion in fiscal 2019. In 2 years, we have kept JPY 420 billion, and we enhanced the shareholders' capital as well as paid back some of the debt. But unfortunately, as for the 100 million share buyback plan, the third and last phase was planned, and we announced JPY 70 billion buyback in June last year. But our share prices have updated the highest record number. As a result, we could not buy back any of the shares after that. Now going to Page 26, I'd like to make some explanation on the investments of the fiscal 2020. Gross investment of the fiscal 2020 is JPY 470 billion. And the fixed asset investment as well as the CapEx is about JPY 200 billion. In Q4, the major investments include the Pan Pacific International Holdings acquisition by FamilyMart and the fixed asset investment as well as the underwriting of the third-party allocation of the new shares of the Tokyo Century and the investment to the Paidy, which is the online payment service. The total is JPY 140 billion. EXITs, as asset replacement, include the sale of the shares held by FamilyMart in Q4 and also the sale of the fixed asset by businesses which accounted for JPY 35 billion. For the full year, the EXIT of JPY 180 billion was done. The details are not disclosed here, but 2/3 -- a little less than 2/3 is for the consumer-related and 1/3 is for the basic industry-related sector. The resource sector EXIT is virtually 0, which has about -- less than 10% of the total asset. And as a result, net investment, as I mentioned, was JPY 290 billion. For the fiscal 2020, the core free cash flow after the shareholder return was positive. In the 4-year in the row, the investments as well as the shareholders' return were within our core operating cash flow. At the beginning of the term, in order to promote the future growth, combining with JPY 300 billion carried over from the fiscal 2019, we plan to make the investment for the good investment opportunities. But as we announced at the midterm business results announcement last year, we also needed to prepare for the deceleration of the economy in the second half, and we focus on the cut and prevent to realize the lean management. So we became more selective in the investments, and we did not find the strong investment opportunities which could be profitable. Going back to Page 5. Let me explain the balance sheet. Total assets were JPY 10.9 trillion, up JPY 800 billion, which is the highest so far. And with the application of the new accounting standard, it increased by JPY 970 billion. And with the Prima Meat Packer becoming subsidiary, it increased by JPY 140 billion. And the Hoken No Madoguchi conversion into the subsidiary pushed up the asset by JPY 40 billion. However, with the high appreciation of the yen, the asset came down by JPY 160 billion. As you see on the right-hand side, in comparison to the forecast, the interest-bearing debt, net DER and ROE are better than our expectations, but shareholders -- total shareholders' equity as well as the ratio of the shareholders' equity to total assets were lower than our expectations. After the exchange rate translation adjustments, about JPY 120 billion, and valuation loss of the asset was a little less than JPY 90 billion. Those were the unexpected impact, and those are the reasons why the shareholders' equity did not exceed the JPY 3 trillion level. So JPY 4 billion short, but the shareholders' equity is still at a record high at JPY 2.996 trillion. In fiscal 2020, the impact of the IFRS new accounting standard was JPY 210 billion positive in terms of the operating cash flow and JPY 970 billion increase in terms of the total assets. As for the changes in the exchange rate, the strong yen impact was negative on the profit after tax by about JPY 9 billion, total assets down by JPY 160 billion and the net interest-bearing debt down by JPY 20 billion, and shareholders' equity down by JPY 120 billion. That concludes the business results. And now let me talk about the fiscal 2021 management plan from the quantitative perspectives. Please go to Page 11. Fiscal 2021 consolidated net profit, including the JPY 50 billion loss buffer, is expected to be JPY 400 billion. We expect lower profits. But since we have a strong financial position, based upon the medium to long term shareholders' returns policy, we will continue with the progressive dividend payment. We plan to pay JPY 3 higher dividend that is JPY 88 per share in fiscal 2021. With the coronavirus outbreak, we expect the global economy to become decoupled. But as one of the leading companies, it is our responsibility to make the best estimate and come up with the forecast for the next year. And in order to show the target numbers that we can achieve based upon our commitment-based management, we try to conservatively review all the businesses and segments. And as a result, we expect the impact of the coronavirus on the economic activity to be major in the Q1, but will be alleviated in the Q2. In the second half, we expect to see some clarity, but we do not expect a V-shaped recovery for this fiscal year. We also need to expect the second wave and the third wave of the coronavirus spread or the pandemic. So it will be risky to expect the quick recovery of the economy. But if, fortunately, the pandemic is resolved earlier, then we will be revising our forecast of JPY 400 billion. Based on this way of thinking, starting with the JPY 500 billion in fiscal 2020 with the changed assumptions of the exchange rate and commodity prices, we expect a negative JPY 50 billion or higher than that. And also based upon the impact of the coronavirus on the different businesses, we expect about a 10% decline for the year company-wide. And also including the extraordinary gains of JPY 50 billion that we expect for the asset replacement, we expect the profit after taxes for fiscal 2021 to be JPY 450 billion. But since there are a lot of uncertainties of the management environment, we included JPY 50 billion buffer loss at maximum. And as a result, we expect our number to be JPY 400 billion. So we have triple layers of the conservative factors. Now let me turn to Page 13 to talk about some of the changes of the assumptions. These are more conservative assumptions than the current market level. The exchange rate is JPY 105. FRB has lowered the interest rate. As a result, the spread between Japan and U.S. is smaller, and the Brent oil price is expected to be $30 per barrel. Looking at the jet fuel and the gasoline demand, due to the limited movement of people and goods, we expect this to be lower. And iron ore and coal prices, as usual, due to the NDA with our partners, we cannot disclose. But with the soft and hardwood pulp prices, we are keeping this conservative assumption. Going back to Page 11. The impact from coronavirus is included in each segment already. There are differences depending on the segments. But if you look at the company-wide impact, it's about 10% negative after taxes. Now we do not disclose each factor or each number of Textile, the segment, but in Textile, we expect lower apparel-related sales due to the closed department stores and decoupled supply chain. In Machinery, we expect that car-related profit to come down due to the deceleration and the stopping of the production and the lower consumer sentiment and a lower profit due to the controlled CapEx in the construction machinery and industrial machinery. In Metals, we expect that lower demand of the steel materials due to the lower demand of the car production. In Energy & Chemical, we expect the reduction of the industrial chemicals. In Food, we expect lower consumption of food as well as the inbound consumption. For the General Products & Realty, we expect the lower housing starts and will have an impact on the business of construction materials and real estate businesses. In ICT & Financial Business, we expect lower profit of domestic and overseas consumer finance business due to the weaker consumption and at a higher provision for bad debt. Now for different segments, we expect a total of JPY 50 billion as extraordinary gains. And already, some of the projects have started, and we are not disclosing these items. If I may comment on the different segments, lower iron ore prices and the crude oil prices are impacting the Metals as well as Energy & Chemicals segment, which will be higher than the previous year. So no resource percentage in fiscal 2021 is going to go up by 9% to 84%. In Machinery, we expect the JPY 9 billion decline in profit year-on-year, and this is mainly due to the lower auto-related business due to the coronavirus outbreak. Under those circumstances, the ICT as well as consumer-related sectors are defensive sector and are considered to be strong. So CTC, FamilyMart, NIPPON ACCESS do have plans to expect a higher profit. And also The 8th Company, Food and the General Products & Realty and ICT & Financial Business expect to see higher profits. Also in Textile, we had extraordinary loss, major one last year, and we expect this core profit to go back to the original level. Now the actual business results for fiscal 2019 and 2020 and also the details of the 2021 plan are shown from Pages 16 to 25. The companies which are expected to be listed in the future are not mentioned on those pages. Going back to Page 11. Let me talk about the JPY 6 billion as others, which include the JPY 50 billion loss buffer and CITIC equity pickup of JPY 62 billion. Last year, it was JPY 66.4 billion, and now it's down by JPY 4.4 billion year-on-year because of our interpretation of the corona impact. Now CITIC Limited does not disclose the first quarter results, but 90% of their profit is that of CITIC Corporation, which was already disclosed, which is about JPY 160 billion as a result of the Q1. And CITIC Bank financial-related business was very strong despite the corona impact. So our equity pickup is about JPY 16 billion. And CITIC business is trending very strongly. Now concerning balance sheet and cash flow, we are showing the qualitative numbers as we did the year before due to the many uncertainties. Now net profit will be JPY 100 billion lower year-on-year. So accordingly, the core operating cash flow will be lower, and we will go back to our regional management policy focused on cut and prevent and try to realize lean management. And we'll continue to work on the efficient capital management. Our strength is the high-efficient management, and we will continue to do this. Now as for the growth investment after the pandemic. In the area that we are strong, we would continue to invest. If we find some of the companies whose values were undervalued, we'd like to make sure that we will find the investment opportunities and to make the investment for the future. Going to Page 12. This is the shareholder return on fiscal 2021. As we mentioned, fiscal 2021, we plan to pay JPY 88 per share, JPY 3 increase. And despite lowering profit, we will continue to pay the progressive dividend. Based upon the latest management environment as well as the cash reserves and the investment projects, concerning the JPY 100 million (sic) [ 100 million ] share buyback in the medium to long term, we still have 40 million shares to go or JPY 70 billion, and we will continue to work on this. Thank you. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]