Iveco Group N.V. (IVG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Iveco Group 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call and Webcast. We would like to remind you that today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Federico Donati, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, [ Rathian ] Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to this webcast and conference call for Iveco Group fourth quarter and full year financial results for the period ending 31st December 2024. This call is being broadcast live on our website and is copyrighted by Iveco Group. I'm sure you appreciate that any other use recording or transmission of any portion of this broadcast without the consent of Iveco Group is not allowed. Also on today's call are Iveco Group CEO, Olof Persson and our CFO, Anna Tanganelli. In their presentation, Olof and Anna will be using the material published on the Iveco Group website early this morning. Additionally, please note that any forward-looking statements we make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the presentation material. Additional information relating to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent annual report as well as other recent reports and filings with the authorities in Netherlands and Italy. The company presentation may include certain non-IFRS financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures is included in the presentation material. I would like to reiterate that 2024 financial data shown in the press release and in this presentation exclude Magirus and this refers to continuing operations only, unless otherwise stated. In accordance with applicable accounting standards, the figures in the income statement and the statement of cash flow for 2023 comparative periods have been recast consistently. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Olof?

Thanks, Federico, and welcome to all of you joining our call today. I'm pleased to report that Iveco Group ended the year with a solid performance running off a 12-month period that saw several important new products introduced. Financial performance in 2024 benefited from positive price realization and diligent cost management, which largely offset the impact of a 4% lower industrial activity net revenues compared to 2023. Despite lower revenues, the adjusted EBIT margin of Industrial Activities stood at 5.7%, 30 basis points higher than the full year of 2023. Our free cash flow generation ended the year at EUR 402 million, the higher end of our guidance. We are reconfirming our full year 2025 preliminary forecast for heavy-duty Trucks in Europe at between 280,000 and 290,000 registration, signaling a stabilization of the market. For medium-duty Trucks, we expect volumes to be slightly down versus 2024. And for light-duty Trucks, European industry forecast is mainly flat versus 2024. This forecast reflects our expectations for a 2-speed year, still low in the first half with a recovery in the second. During Q4 2024, we continue to introduce our model year 2024 product lineup for Truck, something we achieved while maintaining a strong pricing discipline. Feedback from customers is positive and confirmed by our heavy-duty Truck order intake, which was substantially up, both sequentially and year-over-year. We kept production capacity below the market demand, supporting the dealers with a phaseout of model year 2022 and the transition to model year 2024 is largely completed in medium- and heavy-duty Truck while focus is on light-duty Trucks that will be largely completed by the first quarter of 2025 as expected. Bus continued to execute on a strong order backlog and ramped up deliveries of electric city Buses, which reached 14.2% of the European market by year-end, ranking second in the segment. Powertrain continue managing its cost base, enabling it to the end of the year with an adjusted EBIT margin up year-over-year despite a 21% decline in engine deliveries compared to 2023. Defence saw a double-digit margin as the Business unit continued to deliver on its multi and full -- multiyear and full order backlog. In 2025 and 2026, we will increase the pace of our efficiency program and reprioritize certain investments in order to reduce our operational spending and saved EUR 300 million CapEx and OpEx, compared to full year 2024 actuals, but without affecting our product plan. In light of our full year 2024 financial result, which Anna is going to comment in detail later in the presentation, the Board of Directors of Iveco Group N.V. intends to recommend to the company's shareholders an annual cash dividend of EUR 0.33 per common share, totaling approximately EUR 90 million. The proposed dividend remains subject to formal board approval and the approval by the Annual General Meeting, which will take place on 16th of April 2025. Last but not least, as you may have read in our press release this morning, the Board is considering separating the Defence Business during 2025 through a spin-off. In summary, Iveco Group is proceeding with confidence into 2025, all while maintaining an unwavering focus on quality, operational efficiency and diligent price management. If you follow me into the next slide, #5. I'm delighted to highlight significant achievements we made in -- with our model year 2024 configuration. During Q4, in 2024, we had almost 100% of our model year 2024 configurations. These natural gas, electric, 4x2, 4x4, et cetera, in production. This comprehensive and powerful range will bolster our leadership position in light-duty Truck and further strengthen our brand repositioning in heavy-duty Truck, especially given that this product is now at the level of best-in-class. Also, in early November, Iveco completed the transfer of its Nordic distribution and retail operations in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to Hedin Mobility Group, one of Europe's largest mobility providers. This transfer was initially agreed in December 2023 with the signing of the share purchase agreement. This strategic move aligns with our goal of enhancing our distribution network and leveraging the expertise of one of Europe's largest mobility providers. If we now move on to Truck industry performance by region and Iveco's market share in Europe. During the full year of 2024, the industry in Europe was as predicted resilient for light-duty Trucks and down in medium and heavy duty. Latin America saw industry volumes slightly up in light-duty Trucks, but medium and heavy Trucks saw double-digit increases, confirming the recovery of the region. In terms of our European market share, excluding U.K. and Ireland. On a full year basis, in the light commercial vehicle segment between 3.5 and 749 tonnes, we were broadly stable at 13.3%. Within this category, we consolidated our leadership position in both cab chassis and the heavier upper end of the segment at 13.6% and 64.6%, respectively. Our medium and heavy-duty Truck market share in the full year remained solid at 8.9% with heavy-duty Trucks alone at 7.8% flat versus last year. On Slide 7. Throughout the year, we focused on balancing the needs of pricing discipline with a managed introduction of our new model ranges. For our light-duty Truck segment in Europe, we have carefully managed order intake and consequently, our book-to-bill ratio to ensure a smooth transition from model year 2022 to model year '24 within our dealer network. In South America, the order intake surged by almost 300% compared to Q4 2023 with a book-to-bill ratio of 146, making a 132% year-on-year increase. Turning to our medium and heavy-duty Trucks. In Europe, we have seen a significant increase in order intake, up by 15% compared to Q4 2023 with a book-to-bill ratio rising 76% year-on-year to 0.78. Our European heavy-duty order intake has also shown strong growth, up by 18% compared to Q4 2023 and up 49% sequentially with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.86, and that is an 83% year-on-year increase. In South America, the medium- and heavy-duty order intake grew substantially, up by 81% compared to Q4 2023 with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.16, marking a 20% year-on-year increase. In these first weeks of 2025, we are enjoying a positive order trend supporting our expectations that the model year '24 Truck and van ranges will continue to gain momentum while at the same time, we maintain a strong pricing discipline. Moving to Slide 8, we show the Truck channel inventory and production levels. As you can see, our production levels has been deliberately maintained below the retail demand during the fourth quarter of 2024. In light commercial vehicle, our channel inventory was up 3% versus last year, mainly due to increased inventories held by our dealers. While in medium and heavy, it fell by 14% compared to last year, and inventory is now well positioned to meet the forecasted uplift in demand in the second half of 2025. Our ongoing efforts to phase out the model year '22 vehicles and phase-in model '24 products, in light-duty Trucks across our dealer network are progressing well. We are on track to complete most of this transition by the first quarter of 2025. In medium and heavy-duty Truck, this transition was already almost completed at the year-end. The next slide shows some highlights within our Bus segments during the fourth quarter. As you can see, our commitment to embracing technology neutrality with a versatile solution and accelerated zero-emission offering is proceeding at pace. At our Annonay plant in France, the electrification ramp-up is progressing well during the first quarter of '25, both plants, Annonay and Rorthais also in France will be running at full capacity in CityBus production. Furthermore, to meet the increasing demand in the EU, we have introduced battery assembly in Annonay. In Q4, 2024, we celebrated the first kind of success for our CityBus hydrogen. These groundbreaking products will be used in 3 cities in France and mark a significant step forward in our hydrogen strategy. On December 3, we unveiled the European Premiere of the Crossway Electric during exhibition in France, marking the first major electrical intercity Bus in the EU. This event again highlighted our leadership in the electric Bus market. As an early Christmas present, on December 18, we secured a significant tender in Germany for up to 580 Buses, including 200 crossway low entry electric and 180 crossway Buses. As we continue to build on this momentum, we remain focused on leveraging our strengths and solidifying our leadership position in the industry. If we then move to next Slide 11, with Bus industry volumes and Iveco market share. During 2024, we saw a further strengthening in our core market segments. In the Intercity segments, our leadership in Europe was reinforced, reaching a share of more than half the market at 50.5% market share for the full year, which is an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to 2023. This position was helped by the introduction of new electric variants in the European City Bus segment. We also enjoyed robust growth, reaching #2 position with a 19.6% market share for the full year, an increase of 6.9 percentage points compared to 2023. This was supported by acceleration of deliveries in the second half of 2024. Additionally, we saw sound growth in the subsegment of electricity Buses, reaching the #2 position in EU for the full year 2024 with a 14.2% market share, and that is an increase of 6.5 percentage points compared to 2023. Our Business expansion outside Europe also showed positive results with our market share in South America, doubling from 4% in 2023 to 8% in 2024. With an efficient product offering, a widespread network of dealers and service points plus home build batteries made a partnership with Microvast through FPT, to raise in the electric sector is far from over, and we have the ambition to become its leader. Moving to next slide, #12. Our deliveries of Buses were up 8% and the order intake increased by 6% compared to full year 2023, and thereby, the book-to-bill ratio stood at 1 at the end of full year 2024, which is roughly unchanged from full year 2023. This strong book-to-bill ratio provides significant future visibility, enabling robust supply chain management and ability to address potential challenges proactively. We then move to Page 14, and let's focus on the significant achievement in our ICE multi-energy platforms and the ePowertrain launched in Q4 2024. The highlight here is the CURSOR 13-liter hydrogen engine, which was elected as the Alternative Energy Engine of the Year. On November 11, the CURSOR 13-liter, our pioneering multi-fuel single-base engine optimized to run on multiple fuels won the First Alternative Engine award. This recognition underscores our commitment to innovation and position us at the forefront of the future of internal combustion engines. Throughout the year, we continued to expand the number of third-party clients -- we have in both the on- and off-road industries. This supports our long-term Business growth and strengthen our market presence as well as offering improved profitability as a result of cost containment actions that lower our breakeven point. Next, Slide 15. During the year, we continue to experience the knock-on effect of a slowdown in demand across the industry, coupled with ongoing customer destocking. This was more pronounced in off-road compared to on-road. As a consequence, our engine volumes for the full year was down 21% versus full year 2023. To counter the impact of this market situation, Powertrain diligently executed on its efficiency program. It enacted additional cost containment measures and adapt the production to meet the market demand, thereby lowering the breakeven point and strengthening its resilience to industry cycle. This measure led Powertrain to close the year with an improvement in profitability of 30 basis points compared to 2023. Our focus continues to be not just managing short-term challenges, but building a stronger, more resilient future for our Powertrain Business unit. The next slide, #17, shows the main achievements in our Defence Business unit. First of all, despite an increase in deliveries, our order book remained robust, fueled by a solid order intake during the period, confirming our strategic Business plan trajectory. On the 11th of November 2024, IDV signed a preliminary agreement to supply functional parts for future contracts within the Leonardo and Rheinmetall joint venture, IDV's participation will be 12% to 15% of the JV total activities for the development and production of tracked combat ground vehicles for Italian Army. A month later, IDV signed a contract with the Italian Army to supply 1,435 tactical-logistic Trucks to be delivered from this year until 2038. And on 31st of December 2024, the Iveco-Oto Melara Consortium signed a contract for the supply of 76 VBM Plus again for the Italian Army. These achievements demonstrate our strategic focus on innovation and collaboration, ensuring we remain at the forefront of the defense industry. We then move to Slide 18. As mentioned in our press release this morning, in view of the different trends in the commercial vehicles and Defence markets and increasingly different requirements for the long-term success of both Businesses, the Board of Directors of Iveco Group is considering separating the Defence Business, compromising the IDV and ASTRA brands and related activities during 2025 through a spin-off. The separation could simplify our group structure, increase management focus and create strategic flexibility for both Businesses. The Board will provide an update on the outcome of these assessments in the coming months. Any step post the assessment remains subject to the required internal and regulatory approvals. On Page 20, we have our usual focus on electric product deliveries, showing figures for full year 2024. Let's start with our eDaily range. Here, deliveries continue to ramp up visibly during the period, reaching more than 1,700 units with an order backlog that continued to grow. That is along with our market share. We began introducing the model year '24 eDaily range in the third quarter of 2024, and this will continue throughout 2025. We are starting to deliver the first units of the eWay Rigid heavy-duty Truck in the European market and filling the order book. That said, the widespread adoption of electric heavy-duty hinges not only on our own effort, but also largely on the decision and action taken by policymakers and infrastructure investments. Moving to the electrical Buses. We have a solid order book that now covers production up to the second quarter of 2026, deliveries are growing visibly and will continue to do so, boosting market share and positioning Iveco Bus solidly as the #2 in Europe. Our eAxles products deliveries have increased quarter-over-quarter, reaching more than 2,900 units by year-end, and we expect this trend to continue, supported by the progress I mentioned in the electric Bus deliveries. The success our products are having in the markets is a testament to the effectiveness of our Business units in developing their technology road maps as per our strategic Business plan. We are on track to increase output for all our electrical products, and we are well positioned to meet the upcoming European emission standard regulation. And I will now hand over the call to Anna.

Thank you, Olof, and good morning, everyone. Let's now take a look at the highlights of our full year 2024 financial results on Slide 22. Before we start, let me please remind you that as was the case for the previous quarters, all the financials shown in the next slide, refer to our continuing operations only, as our Firefighting Business unit has been classified as discontinued operations since Q1 2024. As a result, in accordance with the applicable accounting standards, also our 2023 figures have been recast consistently. In this regard, please note that the transfer of ownership of the firefighting Business unit to listed private equity holding company Mutares was closed and completed as planned on the 3rd of January 2025. One-off effects from the transaction are excluded from all adjusted metrics. Full year 2024 closed with consolidated net revenues of EUR 15.3 billion and net revenues of industrial activities of EUR 14.9 billion, both contracting by approximately 4% year-over-year, mainly due to lower volumes in Truck and Powertrain, partially offset by a continuously positive year-over-year price realization across all Business units, also in the last quarter of the year. Financial Services net revenues totaled EUR 558 million in 2024, up 13% compared to prior year. Group consolidated adjusted EBIT closed at EUR 982 million with a 6.4% margin, while adjusted EBIT of industrial activities reached EUR 851 million with a 5.7% margin, both up 30 basis points versus last year. Net financial expenses amounted to EUR 211 million, compared to EUR 443 million in 2023, an improvement of EUR 232 million versus prior year as a result of the series of actions implemented during the course of 2024 to contain our foreign exchange exposure and to reduce our cost of hedging in Argentina, combined with a positive hyperinflation accounting impact during the period. For 2025, we are forecasting net financial expenses to remain broadly in line with full year 2024. Reported income tax expenses were EUR 69 million for the year with an adjusted effective tax rate of 26%. As a result, consolidated adjusted net income totaled EUR 569 million, up EUR 181 million compared to prior year, with an adjusted diluted EPS of EUR 2.09, up EUR 0.74 compared to previous year. The adjusted net income attributable to Iveco Group closed broadly in line with the consolidated figure of EUR 198 million versus last year. Moving to our free cash flow performance. we closed full year 2024 with EUR 402 million in free cash flow generation, thereby meeting the upper end of our previously communicated guidance. Finally, available liquidity, including undrawn committed credit lines, stood solid at EUR 5.5 billion on the 31st of December, up almost EUR 1.1 billion from September end. Let's now focus on net revenues of industrial activities on Slide 23. As you can see from the chart on the top right-hand corner of this slide, all regions contracted compared to prior year, excluding South America, which was up 18% versus prior year marking a positive exit speed into 2025. Looking at our net revenues evolution by Business unit, Bus and Defence were solidly up versus prior year at plus 13% and plus 15%, respectively, while Truck and Powertrain decreased versus full year 2023, with Powertrain in particular, posting a minus 17% net revenue contraction compared to previous year. More in detail, Truck net revenues totaled just short of EUR 10 billion, down 6.2% versus 2023 due to a positive price realization and discipline throughout the year, both with light commercial vehicles and in medium and heavy-duty Trucks, which partially offset the expected contraction in volumes in H2 as well as the impact of the year-over-year adverse foreign exchange rate evolution made in Argentina. Bus net revenues were up 13.3%, reaching EUR 2.6 billion, driven by higher volumes, a better mix given the ramp-up in the second part of the year of the electric vehicle production and deliveries and the positive pricing trend. Net revenues for Defence continued to grow substantially throughout the year, ending the year at plus 15.1% versus 2023 and reaching EUR 1.1 billion through higher volumes and a positive mix effect. Powertrain net revenues were down 16.7% year-over-year to EUR 3.5 billion, mainly as a result of a decrease in off-road volumes with sales to external customers accounting for 47%. Turning to Slide 24. Let's now briefly comment on the main drivers underlying the year-over-year performance in our adjusted EBIT margin of industrial activities for the full year. Net pricing continued to be positive for 2024, including in the last quarter of the year and contributing EUR 480 million to the adjusted EBIT and more than offsetting the impact of the volume contraction in Truck and Powertrain. The operational and product cost improvement actions implemented in Europe during the course of 2024, contributed positively for more than EUR 90 million, largely compensating one-off costs associated with the launch of the new model year 2024 Truck range as well as the negative impact on raw materials of the still severe inflationary trend in Argentina. As a result, full year 2024 adjusted EBIT margin of Industrial Activities closed at 5.7%, up 30 basis points versus last year. Let's now take a look at each industrial business unit adjusted EBIT margin performance for the full year on Slide 25. Truck closed with a solid 5.6% adjusted EBIT margin due to, as mentioned, the consistently positive price realization maintained throughout the year, combined with substantial product cost improvement, especially in Europe, but more than offset lower volumes and an adverse foreign exchange rate impact compared to prior year and mainly linked to Argentina. As for Defence, adjusted EBIT margin posted a 230 basis point uplift versus prior year, reaching 10% through higher volumes and the positive aftermarket contribution. Bus adjusted EBIT margin closed at 5.5%, up 70 basis points year-over-year as a result of higher volumes, a positive mix due to the ramp-up in the second part of the year of electric vehicle production and deliveries, and the positive pricing trend. Powertrain adjusted EBIT margin closed at 6.2% in 2024, up 30 basis points compared to prior year despite the severe volume drop suffered across the period. This reconfirms the remarkable resilience and flexibility of this Business unit, which was able to rapidly adapt production levels to a changing market environment and implement a series of internal cost containment actions to counter the minus 17% year-over-year top line contraction while still improving its profitability. Let's now have a look at the performance of our Financial Services Business unit during the year on Slide 26. Full year 2024 adjusted EBIT closed at EUR 131 million with a managed portfolio, including unconsolidated joint ventures of EUR 8.3 billion at the end of the year, of which retail accounted for 40% and wholesale 60%, flat compared to December 31, 2023. Once again, important to be highlighted here is that the stock of receivables past due by more than 30 days as a percentage of the overall on book portfolio remained constant at 1.9%, including in the last quarter of 2024 and compared to the 2% of Q4 2023. Return on assets remained solid at 2%. Finally, during 2024, we renewed the 2 JVs with Santander and BNP Paribas for the management of our retail Business as well as the partnership with CNH for the management of their receivables in EMEA. Additionally, as planned, we scaled up gate market coverage, adding 2 European countries, France and Germany, in line with our Business plan. Moving to our free cash flow and net industrial cash evolution on Slide 27. Full year 2024 free cash flow of industrial activities reached the high end of our previously communicated guidance totaling EUR 402 million. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was EUR 1.9 billion, up EUR 82 million versus prior year. Provisions and similar contributed positively for EUR 279 million compared to 2023, mainly driven by a substantial improvement in financial charges. The variance in change in working capital versus previous year was primarily impacted by 2024 sales volume contraction and as a result, lower production levels compared to prior year. Investments in 2024 totaled EUR 932 million, substantially in line with last year. Moving now to my last slide for today, Page 28. Our available liquidity as of the 31st December 2024 stood solid at EUR 5.5 billion, with EUR 3.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up EUR 850 million compared to last year and EUR 1.9 billion of undrawn committed facilities. Looking at our debt maturity profile, we confirm that the majority of our debt will be maturing beyond 2026. And with our cash and cash equivalent levels continue to more than cover all the cash maturities foreseen in the coming years and totaling EUR 2.4 billion. Thank you. I will now turn the call back to Olof for his final remarks.

Thank you, Anna. And let's end this presentation by looking at the outlook for both the industry and our own financial guidance as well as some key takeaway messages from what you have heard today. In terms of total industry outlook for the current year, we are reaffirming the preliminary industry outlook that we provided back in November last year for Europe Truck. This is light-duty Trucks, slightly down to flat, mainly because of a full year 2024, higher registration versus our preliminary outlook. Medium-duty Truck slightly down at about 30,000 units and heavy-duty Truck at between 280,000 and 290,000 units. South America Truck is expected to grow by 10% in light-duty Truck and be up 5% in the medium and heavy-duty track. Rest of the world for both subsegments are forecasted to be flat or slightly down. Finally, in Buses, we are expecting a flat industry across regions. The next slide has our full year 2025 preliminary financial guidance. This full year 2025 preliminary financial guidance is based on the current industry outlook and solid order backlogs coupled with a constant pricing discipline and focus on cost management. As a consequence, we are expecting at the consolidated level, group adjusted EBIT at between EUR 980 million and EUR 1.03 billion. And for the industrial activities, net revenues, including currency effect to be flat year-over-year. Adjusted EBIT from industrial activities at between EUR 850 million and EUR 900 million and industrial free cash flow to be between EUR 400 million and EUR 450 million. We will continue to manage our production capacity in Truck in Europe and Powertrain Businesses during the first half of the year, in line with our forecasted 2-speed market for Truck for 2025 to sensibly manage cost and support the finalization of the phaseout of older models and phase-in of model year '24 and this is primarily in our light-duty Truck segment. Before ending the call, I'd like to highlight some final thoughts and takeaways. Looking to further improve our ability to react more promptly to our cyclical industry and to lower our profitability breakeven point, starting from 2025 and continuing in 2026, we will speed up the implementation of our efficiency program as well as reprioritizing some of our investments. This will have the effect of reducing our total operating spending, CapEx and OpEx, but without affecting our product plan by EUR 300 million compared to 2024 actual result. The savings will be divided by year as follows: In the full year 2025, we will reprioritize EUR 100 million in CapEx and savings in OpEx for EUR 50 million. In the full year of 2026, we are expecting savings in OpEx for EUR 150 million. These efforts will improve the cost run rate and to ensure a lower breakeven point. And now on Slide 33, let me provide the usual key takeaway messages from today's earnings call. First, our full year 2025 preliminary financial guidance is based on current industry outlook and assumes Truck's first half year remains low, but with a recovery in the second half. The order book in both Bus and Defence are solid, providing good visibility for both Business units. And in Powertrain, we continue to focus on cost containment actions that maintain solid profitability. Second, full year industrial activity, free cash flow generation will continue as per our preliminary guidance, supported by a diversified and well-positioned Business portfolio as well as constant increased effort to optimize working capital management. Thirdly, to strengthen Iveco Group's product positioning, we will maintain our focus on excellence in quality and strengthening our brand position. In this regard, we recently established a new quality and operations functions that would provide a more unified approach to sourcing, production and logistics. The cornerstone of our quality focused organization is the platform model, which we are fundamentally reshaping to serve as a single entry decision point for all products and services life cycles. And finally, we will accelerate our efficiency program, as I mentioned, and reprioritize some of our investments, which will lead to a total savings of EUR 300 million compared to our actual full year 2024 results. In conclusion, as clearly stated at the bottom of the slide, focus is our commitment for 2025. Iveco Group's focused commitment centers on 3 key priorities that drive growth and efficiently. First, we are committed to putting customers at the heart of everything we do, by meeting their needs through exceptional products and services. Second, we are supporting the successful launch of our model year 2024 range along with advancements in eBuses and eDrivelines to position ourselves strongly in the market. And finally, we are reducing our cost base by prioritizing spending, streamlining processes and postponing nonessential projects to enhance the overall operational efficiency. Before opening up for questions, I think it's appropriate to thank all the people who work at Iveco Group every day, our partners and suppliers for these results. Together, they bring life to our commitment to always go beyond, while remaining focused on our priorities. All Iveco Group's Businesses are progressing well on their respective long-term pathways while continuing to lower the breakeven points, despite the different short-term industry dynamics. That concludes.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we can now open it up for questions. To be mindful of the time, we kindly ask that you hold off on any detailed modeling and accounting question on which we can follow up directly with me, Federico and the Investor Relations team after the call. Operator, please go ahead.

[Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our first question, and the questions come from the line of Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs.

I have 2 questions, so I'll do the 1 and the follow-up. I'll start with Defence and with the announcement of looking at the separation. Can you maybe sort of help us understand separation route versus potentially selling to a third party sort of like why you decided to go for a separation? And what's the cost that you bake in, in the free cash flow guidance from that work?

Okay. I think from the Board's initial discussion, a spin seems to be the simple way of achieving the benefits of separation. With a spin, there is no change of ownership at the point of separation, there is less market risk and many Iveco shareholders may wish to remain invested in both companies. So, no decision has been made, but we wanted to indicate the most likely separation approach.

And as for the guidance, no -- I mean, obviously, the guidance does not reflect any of that since all of -- as correctly all have said, there is no decision has been taken. So, okay. . And then just a second point on the EUR 300 million actions on the OpEx and the CapEx. Just wanted to understand how are these like over and above benefits that you would have been expecting from those partnerships that you have in like with Hyundai on the component side or also the one in Turkey for lower cost production. Is this related to that? Or is this extra actions and maybe you could give a bit more color exactly on what it is?

Thank you, Daniela. This is completely unrelated. So it's all self-help internal actions and, let's say, improvements and efficiencies we have identified. So it's not related to any partnership or any intervention of any third party. So it's really all of our self-help organic efficiencies.

So over and above, but those actions that were expected to review to -- have they already contributed to the bridge? Or are they still -- are we still yet to see the benefits of those actions -- those prior partnerships?

As we said, those benefits will come later in the Business plan. So yes, you're absolutely right. This will be above and beyond of any benefits coming from any partnership and these are for 2025. So, the rest will be coming later in the plan as we had communicated also during our Capital Markets Day in March.

We will now take our next question from the line of Martino de Ambroggi from Equita.

Again a question on the Defence Business. Could you provide us an idea what is the ideal net financial position when the Business will be spun off? And what is the contribution in your 2025 guidance, particularly looking at your CMD last year, you already achieved in '24 the sales target you had in '26. Return on sales is still 100, 200 bps lower, but in any case, just to have an idea if there is room for an update maybe later during the year, but this target seems to be probably upgraded. And the second question is on the heavy Truck performance. What was in terms of sales and EBIT in '24? And what is implied in your guidance for '25 with some references on the prices?

Well, I can start with your first question. I mean, the question you were asking that will be part of the Board's consideration as we clearly stated out. So we will let you know as and when the decisions are made and the information is available.

And on heavy duty, so in terms of profitability in 2024, excluding the impact of ESCO, we are in the low single-digit area. For 2025, we are forecasting an improvement in profitability, but I would say, still in the low single digit -- with an improvement obviously year-over-year.

Yes. And the prices, which are -- what is the contribution in terms of prices from the new model year?

No. I mean, I don't think we guide in that. I mean the issue we have, and what I've said over and over again is that we do have the pricing discipline very high up and again, I'm following that personally, making sure that on the heavy-duty Truck as well as for the light-duty track that we now get the pricing that these products deserve. Getting there is a process. We need to launch the product. We need to get them out on the roads. We need to get the customer feedback, which we're getting and it's very positive. And during that period of time, you need to place the marketing activities in a very tactical and good way, and that's exactly what we're doing. But over time here, during 2025, where we have launched all the different variances when we have got the -- getting the order out on the street, then you're definitely going to see a stabilization of the pricing and the pricing discipline that we're going to have, making sure with improved TCOs for our customer with improved quality that we have with the improved driver satisfaction that we have with our new cap having the right prices on it.

We're now going to take our next question. The questions come from the line of Jose Asumendi from JPMorgan.

I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about the Defence Business. Can you quantify or give us an update, please, about the size of the order backlog you have, the growth profile over the next 2 years. Do you think you can hit maybe EUR 1.5 billion revenues in the next 2 to 3 years? And then second question related to Defence. When you think about the joint venture collaboration with Leonardo and Rheinmetall, does this open strategically opportunities to bid for contracts that you previously were not able to bid. But how does it change your ability to -- effectively to grow the Business from here?

Okay. I mean from order intake and the growth going forward, I mean we do have a Business plan communicated in March last year, which is actually then outlining the projected and what we expect and what the targets we do have on the Business. And I think the order backlog that we now have seen and order intake that I reported today as well, I mean we are well on track on that pathway for the Defence side. On your second question, I mean, we have to -- and I want to be clear on this, what the Board is communicating today is that they are considering, and they want to make an assessment and then coming back to this within a couple of months. So I have no further comments on those kind of aspects, and I don't want to go into that in particular. So we just conclude that -- the Defence Business is doing well. The Defence Business is taking a good order backlog, we are well on track of a Business plan. I think that's what we can comment upon today.

Fair enough. Can I go back to Van, heavy vans and van segment and heavy duty. What are you hearing from your European clients? Are you seeing that order backlog or book-to-bill ratio improving towards the second half of the year?

Yes. I think that's why we put this guidance out that we have this 2 speed of year, right? So when you do this kind of guidance, you definitely listen in to a lot of different information, and this is what we see and hear today, right? When it comes to our own sort of making in that. And that means, of course, just because the market grows in a certain way, it doesn't mean that you have to follow the market, in terms of market share. And we do, in our guidance, do look at the market share gain, in particular, in the heavy, given the fact that we've got good responses from the heavy-duty side and medium-duty side based on the fact that we -- as I've highlighted in terms of the order intake end of last year, starting of this year, I think that we are on a good way now to really fully launch it and getting into a more steady state order intake kind of position. And then we shouldn't forget our inroads in Latin America, either we talk about Europe all the time, but we have a had a good development in 2024, and we have a good run rate coming off 2024 into 2025, both in heavy and light in South America. And when I was there talking to the team, there is a lot of positivism in the way we launch our products, the way we position the Iveco brand, actually taking market shares going forward in all the Business segments we have. So that is combination. And you had a little bit of a heavy -- what was a heavy van question ahead as well? Or did I miss?

Yes, please. It is van.

Yes. No, on the heavy side, on the dailies, the cap over on the heavy side. I mean, we see that with the model year '24 really cement our market leader position. I mean this product is -- I am biased, I know, but I think it's an absolutely brilliant product we do have there. So we are very much looking forward to keeping the market. Of course, it is a different position when you are at the 39% 40% or even 60% market share to grow compared to in the heavy duty, where we are in much lower numbers. But we are -- I feel very comfortable with this, and it's a matter now of concluding, as we said, with full focus on the 2022, 2024 model shift with our dealers to make sure that is done -- mostly done in Q1 and then take it from there.

The next question comes from the line of Gianluca Bertuzzo from Intermonte SIM.

The first one is on the order flow for the medium and heavy Trucks. I wanted to know if there was a lump dynamic in Q4 due to the successful transition to Model Year '24 and the full opening of order books? Or there was a steady development. And maybe if we can expect the same level of orders also in Q1 and beyond? Second question is, can you share the revenues from LCV of the Truck division? And last question is on Defence. When thinking about the potential valuation you are seeking for this Business, can you share a threshold below which the spin-off will not be done?

I can start with the last question that you have. And again, I need to come back to the statement. This is a part of the assessment based on this consideration that the Board has communicated to that. So I cannot and will not comment and there will be information if and when decisions are taken, right? When it comes to the order flow on the heavy and the steadiness of it, I would say -- it is interesting to see the pickup we have seen at the back end of last year. And this is not opening order books or anything like that. We have had order books open for quite some time. But it's actually, I would say, it's more of a start to recognize the product, or starting to get the feel for the products and then realizing what a good product it is. Having said that, as in all introductions, we have been doing, as you always do marketing activities to make sure that we get launch customers, that we get the product out in all the different markets and so on and so forth. I think I'm forecasting into the order intake in Q1. I think the only thing we can say with certainty is that the first weeks of 2025, we started well. I mean we can say that, and then we will have to work on it. And as I said before, I have a good feeling for where we're going to be able to position this product in the medium and heavy-duty Trucks going forward. It will not happen from Monday to Friday, it will not happen overnight. It is a very hard work that we have to do, but gradually over 2025, as I have said over and over again, gradually over 2025, we would see all the benefit coming through here as well, so I think, then you have the revenue...

The LCV revenues contribution is around 50% of the Truck revenues.

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the question comes from Monica Bosio from Intesa Sanpaolo.

Most of my questions have been already answered, but I'm just wondering if you can give us more color on the book-to-bill. The order intake is gaining momentum, but the book-to-bill in the sequentially decreased, if I'm not wrong. So I'm just wondering what we can expect by year-end with the ongoing introduction of the new model year. And my second question is on the free cash flow guidance. Maybe it's too early to answer, but can you give us any color on the free cash flow generation for the Truck division by year-end, also on the back of the self-help measures?

Okay. If I start to the book-to-bill discussion and the numbers, right? So I think on the -- what you see now on the heavy- -- medium- and heavy-duty Truck is a natural transition where we are then coming from now having almost concluded the model year shift between '22 and '24. And now we start to see the flow coming through more natural in between production and the dealers. However, and I've repeated this as well, I will not and we will not overproduce. So as you can see, the production versus the demand until we really see the delivery times going up, and we have seen the delivery times going up, and we're now booking up to 12 weeks in the medium and heavy duty, which is a good sign. We will manage very carefully the production rate not to overstock. On the LCV side, as I said, we are very much focused on that now. It has been, but we're also making sure that this now during Q1, you're going to see that sort of transition done, and then you open up again for the flow -- a normal flow of order versus demand, again, with a conservative production and making sure that we keep the inventory right. Now then -- so basically by end of Q1, you should see that going through. And then you basically see market share versus our market anticipation and market guidance. And then you would see sort of the pickup coming down from the -- going into the second half of the year. So that's sort of how we built up the guidance so on and so forth.

And so on the cash flow, what I can say -- sorry, please, Monica.

No, no, please go ahead.

I thought you had a follow-up question. Now on the cash flow, as you very well know, we don't guide by Business unit. All I can say is that obviously, Truck is our biggest Business unit, so we'll definitely contribute significantly to our cash flow generation in 2025. I would say, especially from a good performance of its working capital, Truck will find itself as Olof was saying that we are in the almost opposite position in 2024 because we will have in H2, which is going to see an increase in revenues and therefore, in production. So I would say working capital will perform quite well for Truck in the second part of the year. So this is all I can say that definitely 2025 will see a positive contribution from a cash flow perspective also of the other Business unit.

Yes, that's exactly what I wish to hear.

We are now going to proceed with our last question, and the last questions come from the line of Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas Exane.

I've got 3, if I may, and we'll go 1 at a time. So the first one, just on the Truck margin, which was flat year-on-year in Q4, but down slightly in '24. Help us understand, you had more LCV in the mix. So supposedly that should have had a positive mix effect. You also said the heavy-duty margin improved, if I'm not mistaken. So what was the headwind in '24 and Q4, apart from lower volumes? And now that you're guiding for flat revenues in '25, you have all the configurations of the new model year in production. You already said you expect some improvement in the heavy-duty margin in '25. How do you expect the overall Truck margin to improve?

So I can answer the first question. Well, you mentioned it. I mean, volume has definitely had an impact also on the profitability. So that cannot be disregarded. Then please remember that despite the positive pricing trend in the year that we said and the product cost improvement, we cannot forget the effects impact simply because we were able to very well effectively manage the -- our hedging strat in Argentina. I mean, FX is still adverse in Argentina, especially, but not just in Argentina. So year-over-year has had still a negative impact. Obviously, it's a smaller extent than 2023, absolutely, but it's still there. So these 2 elements have unfortunately offset the positive performance of the pricing and the improvement in our product cost.

I think on the heavy duty and the overall Truck margin, I think the main message here is that we're now sort of moving in. And to me, and to the company, it is absolutely crucial that we now start to increase our margins in the heavy duty and medium duty Truck segment by, as I said, pricing discipline, cost reductions, utilization, all those strings on the guitar that you always have when you introduce a new product, right? So it's fundamental in our strategy and our focus to continue relentlessly to keep on doing that because at the end of the day, our Truck margin and our market share needs to be earned, and it has to be earned by good margin product. So -- but again, as I said in the last answer, this is not done from one day to another. We're coming from a position. We are coming from a product. We're now moving into new territory where we move the brand position and everything. So that is, to me, super important to state over and over again. When it comes to the absolute details about the margins, I don't think we sort of get into that. Rest assured, everyone on the call that we are laser focused on this part, again, with the fact that we have this brilliant product now as an asset. And now we have to make sure that this asset is really paying off in terms of the investments we have done. And I'm very confident that, that's going to happen.

That's very clear. And in my last question on the efficiency program, assuming that the EUR 300 million are all successfully achieved by 2026, can you confirm we could be looking at an industrial free cash flow higher than the Capital Markets Day target of EUR 600 million?

Well, I think it's -- we have a plan. We have a Business plan -- a strategic Business plan we communicated in March. I think we will inform you, keep you posted on progresses in the coming months. I think I mean, let's get the EUR 300 million in the bag, and then we will be all very happy if we can beat any estimate. But for now, that Business plan stands, so.

No, no, absolutely right. I just want to highlight that, first of all, your question if, there is no if. It will come, right? Because we have very detailed plans, and we have the reprioritization close, so the EUR 300 million will come. But the way I see it is that given a -- that we don't have the crystal ball 2 years in a row. This gives us the momentum around making sure that we continue to lower our breakeven point, making sure that we are faster in adapting to any changes to the market. And of course, if the market and when the market changes, what happened then? Well, then you have a better leverage situation because you're going in with an upturn with a lower cost base because we are taking out the cost. So to me, it's really a way of communicating to the organization, making very sure that we keep on working on this. And again, it's not an if, it's definitely when those savings will come in.

Thank you all.

Thank you all, and have a nice weekend.

Bye-bye.

Bye-bye.

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.