Japan Tobacco Inc. ($2914)

Thank you very much for participating in the Investor Meeting for Q1 2026 results at Japan Tobacco Inc. today. Before we start the meeting, I'd like to ask you to make sure that your display name is accurate. Thank you for your cooperation. It's now pleasure to introduce our CFO, Mr. Furukawa, please.

Good afternoon. I am Hiromasa Furukawa, CFO of the JT Group. Thank you very much for joining us today for JT Group's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Briefing. I will begin by explaining the consolidated results for the first quarter, marking a strong start to the year. As shown on the slide, both revenue and AOP recorded significant increases on both constant FX and reported basis, mainly driven by a robust quarter in the tobacco business. AOP at constant FX, our key profit management indicator, increased by 20.5% year-on-year, resulting in strong operating profit and profit growth. The FX impact was positive, mainly driven by depreciation of several currencies, including the Russian ruble against the Japanese yen. Operating profit increased by 24.7% year-on-year, driven by the increase in AOP as well as a reduction in amortization cost of intangible assets arising from past acquisitions included in the adjustment items. Profit increased by 27.3% year-on-year, driven by operating profit growth. In addition, financial income and expenses improved in the first quarter. Due to the recent rapid deteriorating situation in the Middle East and Iran, we have reclassified certain balance sheet items related to Iran in our consolidated financial statements in accordance with IFRS. As a result, we expect impacts from foreign exchange gains and losses arising from Iran-related balance sheet items to be mitigated. Next, I will move on to the performance of each business segment, starting with the volume performance of the tobacco business. Please turn to Slide 4. Total volume, combining with combustibles and RRP increased by 0.9% year-on-year, representing a solid performance considering the global industry volume contraction. In combustibles, strong share momentum continued across many markets. Although combustibles industry volume declined in several markets, including Japan, Russia and the U.K., our combustibles volume remained in line with the previous year. RRP volume increased by a significant 44.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated growth in Ploom volume and sustained market share gains and boosted by the temporary demand ahead of the RRP tax hike in Japan. Moving on to the financial performance of the tobacco business on Slide 5. In the first quarter, pricing contributions materialized across many markets, driving double-digit growth in both revenue and AOP together with favorable phasing impact of promotional activities. Let me explain the AOP drivers by factor. Volume contribution was negative as the total volume increase was offset by a deterioration in market mix from large volume declines in higher-priced markets such as the U.K. Price/mix contribution continued to be strong, driven by robust pricing across many markets, including the key markets of Japan, Russia, Turkey and the U.S. These top line growth factors fully offset increased investments towards Ploom as well as inflation-driven increases in raw material costs and SG&A expenses such as labor, resulting in a 19.2% year-on-year increase in AOP at constant FX. As mentioned earlier, the FX impact was favorable. On Slide 6, I will explain the performance of the 3 clusters in the tobacco business. The graphs on this slide show year-on-year variances in total volume, core revenue and AOP at constant FX for each cluster. Let me start with Asia, cluster, which includes the key markets of Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan. Total volume in this cluster increased by 7.3% year-on-year, driven by higher Ploom volume across markets as well as combustibles market share gains in the Philippines and Bangladesh. Regarding financial results, revenue and profit increased significantly, mainly driven by positive pricing and volume contributions in Japan and the Philippines. Next is Western Europe, which includes Italy, Spain and the U.K. Total volume in this cluster declined by 3.2% year-on-year, while we achieved market share gains in several markets, including Italy as well as in heated products driven by Ploom. These positive factors were offset by declining combustibles industry volume, notably in the U.K. market. Core revenue and AOP grew as the pricing contribution, mainly in Spain and the U.K. offset the negative volume variance, mainly in the U.K. Moving on to EMA, which includes Romania, Russia, Turkey and the U.S. Total volume in this cluster remained in line with the previous year. The ongoing increase in industry volume in Turkey, combined with market share gains in Turkey and the U.S. as well as higher plume volume across markets were offset by declining combustibles industry volume, including in the key markets of Russia and the U.S. The cluster reported an increase in both revenue and AOP, driven by a pricing contribution, mainly in Russia, Turkey and the U.S., partially offset by negative volume effects, mainly in Russia. While investments in Ploom and inflation-driven increases in raw material costs and SG&A expenses continued across clusters, these were offset by top line growth. On Slide 7, I want to highlight the top line performance of RRP. As shown in the graph on slide, growth in RRP volume and RRP-related revenue have accelerated. Although the acceleration includes a temporary higher demand in Japan, we remain confident in our ability to continue capturing additional volume and category share, building on the momentum of Ploom [indiscernible], which was launched in 2025. As of May 2026, Ploom has been launched in 29 markets and Oura has already been introduced in 25 markets. As a result, Ploom category share in our key selected heated product markets reached 10.1% as of February 2026. Slide 8 updates the trend of Pom in several markets. Through the strengthening of our investment in RRP, as mentioned previously, we are expanding our global coverage and enhancing our portfolio through the transition to Aura and EVO. In addition, we are investing to increase awareness by strengthening communication with consumers across both digital and in-person touch points. Stronger engagement throughout the consumer journey is a key to enhance our retention. Following the learnings from the launched market, we are focusing not only on driving trials through collaborations with various events and the promotional activities at pop-up stores, but also on strengthening post-purchase engagement to enhance retention. These initiatives are steadily translating into tangible results. And as shown in the graphs, [indiscernible] share within the heated products category continued to grow across market. In Japan, our average category share reached 15.8% in the first quarter and driven by the contribution of Promore launched in May last year, the pace of share growth is accelerating. In Taiwan, following the launch of [indiscernible] in October last year, we have confirmed the strong initial momentum with first quarter heated product share reaching almost 25%. From this standpoint, Taiwan represents the best launch performance of Prom so far to strengthen our consumable offering for Ploom. We have recently launched LEO, a new brand of heated nicotine sticks that do not contain tobacco leaps in Poland and Italy. LEO offers an innovative proposition using a harbor substance and to consumers interested in flavored heated products. Next, I will explain the results of the processed food business. Revenue increased by JPY 1.4 billion year-on-year, driven by price revisions of Frozen Food noodles in the frozen and ambient food business. AOP increased by JPY 0.9 billion year-on-year and revenue growth offset higher raw material costs due to rising rice prices. Finally, please see Slide 11. In the first quarter, consolidated AOP at constant FX increased by 20.5% year-on-year, delivering a robust performance. In the tobacco business, the favorable pricing variance and a stronger contribution from RRP were supported by continued combustibles share gains. Meanwhile, I mean, the recent expiration of tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty remains, including potential impacts on operations in the region as well as the performance impacts from rising crude oil prices. Continued close monitoring is required, including impacts on natural economies FX movement and our supply chain cost. At this stage, the direct impact to our business is not material, and the strong momentum in the tobacco business continued as our first quarter delivered a strong start to the year. We remain focused on delivering our full year initial forecast. This concludes my presentation. Thank you very much for your attention.

Thank you, Mr. Fadoul Pekhazis. Now we'd like to move to Q&A session. Let me introduce you to the speakers who answer your questions today. . Hiromasa Furukawa, CFO of the JT Group and Nobuya Kato, JTI Deputy CEO. Next, I will show you how to ask questions. We are afraid we don't accept questions in this English line. If you have any questions, please send an e-mail to [email protected]. We will introduce your question accordingly. Thank you for your understanding. Thank you for waiting. . The first question comes from Mr. Saji, Mizuho Securities.

I have one question related to Russia. So the market industry demand for the March quarter, I believe it was positive. So looking at the materials, minus 4.3%. So it appears as if the negative amount is large in comparison to the industry volume. Of course, there was a tax hike in January. So perhaps the consumers' mindset and were negatively hit and also perhaps down trading have occurred. And it could be that affordability has declined. So my question is, so this volume decline, how do you perceive this? So the fact that your market share is declining? What are your thoughts? Also for the heated tobacco products, in terms of the share. So the area that you are not involved in. So the competitors are perhaps reaching 10%, if not 20%. So I believe you are not involved in this particular category. So going forward, so as JT has not involved the heated tobacco products, how do you perceive the fact that the heated tobacco products share is increasing within Russia? So the question related to the Russian market, Kato would answer the question. .

Thank you very much for that question. As for Russia, for the first quarter, as you rightly mentioned, the volume have declined for JT. And likewise, the market share decline and some of the factors behind that. Let me explain. Well, let's just say the items you've mentioned, they are correct, as you have understood. But in addition to that, in terms of the industry volume as a whole, year-on-year, there was a positive. However, in terms of combustibles, there was a significant decline. So some of the factors behind that as you rightly mentioned, in terms of the reasons. So the heated products growth is somewhat more strongly in comparison to the costable. So it is just as you have explained. So of course, there was the tax hike. The degree of the tax hike was larger than the previous years. So hence that the deterioration of the affordability, especially for the combustibles, and that has led to the volume decline for both the industry volume for the combustors. Now for combustibles industry volume decline, and in addition to that, JT's market share is coming down and that has led to our -- the sales volume decline. So this is not just for combustibles, but for the market as a whole, we are seeing deterioration of the affordability. Therefore, there has been a down-trading in process. So as down trading progress, in terms of the value price in comparison to the overall market share, our market share in the value price is somewhat weaker. We are stronger in the mid- to more of a premium price. Therefore, if the market as a whole moves towards down trading, that would pose a negative impact on our performance. So going forward, with heated products, how should we perceive them and especially for the second quarter onwards, what would be the possible trend. That was the nature of your question. Now for the heated products growth. So of course, because of the combustibles, it was a price hike and also the tax hike. So we continue to see price increase. Whereas for the heated products, the competitors are also offering a somewhat a more affordable price. Heated products, of course, continues to be higher in price in comparison to combustibles. But let's just say the price gap against the combustibles is narrowing. So all in all, the affordability deterioration and also down trading, progressing. That is how the consumers are behaving at this moment. So as we see the deterioration of the affordability. What are some of the initiatives that we could conduct. Now how long this would continue. And to what extent would it continue? Depending on that, we need to consider different measures. For instance, pricing, we may need to look at more of a value price. And we may need to strengthen more of our initiatives in those particular price range. So we do -- we are not just complacent with how the market is behaving. So we like to mitigate, if not try to get back to where it was before. Those are some of the lots.

Just one point to confirm then. So in terms of heated tobaccos so of course, you will not conduct new investment here. But the market as a whole, the competitors, I think they're growing by 15% or so.

So basically, your ideas don't change then. No new investments in. As of this moment, we are monitoring the market closely as to what we can do and what we would do. So we need to make -- we are making a cautious approach.

Now I'd like to take the next question, from Nomura Securities, Mr. Morita.

Morita, Nomura Securities. I'd like to ask about the impact on Iran and also Middle East. Iran and the Middle East region operation, you said that the impact -- the direct impact is minor. But what is the current status and also -- would you comment on the FX impact? And also there was some change after the IFRS. So for the full year base, what will be the level of the impact in the Middle East station? And also what point we need to be mindful.

So the impact by the Middle East situation. [indiscernible] will take that question. Thank you very much, Mr. Morita. Iran and the Middle East situation. Of course, we do have a deep concern and we hope to see [indiscernible] solution. And also, we do have the operation there, and we are having the business basis there. So our top priority to ensure the safety of the employees. And also, we will continue to comply with our loans, including the local regulations. And talking about Iran itself. First, let me comment on this point. initially, although was a temporary shutdown of the factory However, we didn't have any damage to the facility. And currently, we do have the operation with close security control. And all other the distribution and safe sales activity. So we do have some alternative route and sometimes we are taking the remote activities. And also, the raw materials necessary for the production, we have already secured the appropriate rules. So both for the completed products and also the materials, we do have to have a certain level of the inventory. And another one for the financial expense Well, on the beer side, we had some recreation. And the trigger was when we look at Iranian situation and also based on the IFRS requirement. We have revisited and had some reclassifications. And also, we had the agreement with the accountant as well. Any additional comment?

For the Middle East situation, well, let me comment on the financial impact slightly. So far, as Huka mentioned, operation itself, well, suspension of the operation didn't happen. However, if there is any further deterioration and if the operations topped naturally, we would have the negative impact, and we wouldn't rule out that possibility. But so far, we were able to continue our operation. So whether the probability, the risk is high or not. Actually, we are closely monitoring that, and we don't think that is high. And also, the materialize one, that is related to the rising crude oil cost, the cost impact on us. And of course, along with the increase of the oil cost, the energy cost and the raw material cost and the transportation costs are up and sometimes our lead times are extending. So the distribution and cost. Yes, we are seeing some pressures out of those. And we have seen some limited cost increase so far. And majority of that exposure, we are having the very close monitoring and also well, our cost that is directly affected by the crude oil price, that proportionately, that is very small compared with the total cost. So I would say the impact is limited one. And also how long that toward oil price will continue. We would see the to be the ultimate negative impact on us. But given that we do have the very strong momentum of the tobacco business, as presented in the presentation by Furukawa. Net profit growth for the full year, at this point of time, unless there is any big surprise, we are confident we'll be able to achieve that. And a follow-up question. So on the operations side, it is currently functioning. So it is not clear risk and also cost increase is a limited one. Is that what you mentioned? Yes, your observation is correct. Would you give us any quantitative comment on that? Are you talking about the cost increase? Well, FX adjustment or the cost environment, would you give us any quantitative comment? As I commented in the presentation, on the balance sheet, we have the reclassification, but that is under the OP line. So Iranian business itself, the adjusted OP FX. We continue to be with us as usual. However, the latest ran rate actually, there is no prominent gap. And of course, the basic stance is we continue to have the close watch. But for the impact for the entire company currently, that is a limited one.

so the next question comes from Fujiwara, JPMorgan Securities.

This is Fujiwara from JPMorgan. So one question. So the first quarter results has been very robust. So adjusted operating profit. So vis-a-vis the full year basis, I think it's close to 70% or so on a constant currency basis. So course, depending on the middle situation, of course, we need to be mindful of that. But as of this moment, perhaps there's not much of a big risk at this moment. So perhaps Q1, was it better to good to be? Or should we perceive more risk in the second quarter onwards? So I'm pretty sure the full year guidance is well within the realm of achieving. But what are some of the potential concerns that we should have going forward? So for the first quarter results, how we evaluate those and also how we perceive the rest of the year.

Mr. Furukawa will provide you with an answer. Thank you very much for that question. As you rightly mentioned, in terms of the Middle East situation, the first quarter, as of today, the impact has been limited. As of today, that is -- so depending on how it may change, of course, we need to closely monitor that. And of course, some of the supply chain-related costs and the crude oil. The price deriving from the Middle East situation, of course, we need to pay close attention to, and those could be considered risks. So again, Q1 has just been completed. And -- in terms of the industry demand for the major markets and the FX for the major markets, we'd like to make sure we keep a close watch on those. So as far as Q1 is concerned, as mentioned already, we are steadily progressing towards the full year guidance achievement. And accordingly, we'd like to give you an update if the situation changes. So just to add on then. So the first quarter was a very good start. So in terms of the temporary demand in Japan. So I do believe it's several hundred millions of sticks. Is this the right way to look at that? Also in terms of the other profit, the RRP-related investment. So I think there was a comment on some of the timing difference. If you could also give us more of a quantitative number in terms of the impact. So the question was related to the Japanese market. about the last minute demand impact and also some of the difference in the booking of the cost. Mr. Sato will talk about that. So in terms of the impact of the last-minute demand in Japan, it's hard to assess the exact number. But the end product is it was larger than we initially anticipated in terms of those -- the pretax it last minute demand. This is our estimate. But as you mentioned, several hundred million sticks, that is also our understanding in terms of the magnitude. Also another point, the investment and also the timing difference. And Mr. Furukawa mentioned about the full year outlook, and this is related to that. So for the heated products related investment, there has been some timing difference and has been pushed out. And of course, sales promotion accounts for a large part of that. depending on the competitive climate of the respective market, we would conduct those sales promotion at the most effective timing. So as far as Q1 is concerned, there were some changes in terms of the timing. But Q2 onwards on a full year basis, we should be able to execute those. Actually, inherently, Q2 onwards, we were planning to conduct the sales promotions. So it was skewed more towards Q2 onwards. So in terms of the proportion of the investment, it was initially limited. And as our plan, it is skewed more towards the second quarter onwards. So the business as a whole has been quite favorable for Q1. But in terms of Q2, we will see more investment. And also, as Mr. [indiscernible] mentioned, we shall see more of the volume impact. We need to closely watch the situation of Russia also where as a positive in Q1, for instance, the Philippines. Also Turkey, Bangladesh. The markets for positive in Q1. In fact, last year in Q1, so it has been very strong on year-on-year. However, the second quarter onwards, so last year's the volume of Q2 was perhaps is a positive year-on-year impact may not be continued for the second quarter. So actually, that was already baked into our guidance. So what we initially anticipated minus 1% to flat that was the guidance at the beginning of the year. But as of now, after Q1, plus 0.9%. But the full year guidance hasn't changed dramatically. So all in all, Q2 onwards, we may see some deceleration in terms of the top line as well as the volume. And actually, that has already been baked into our guidance. So that is just a comparison year-on-year and also the action timing of the cost. But in the general momentum continues to be strong. Yes. The share momentum. Last year was very strong, and that momentum has been able to successfully continued. And we've been able to confirm that in Q1. And Q2 onwards, we have high confidence that we can carry this.

Now I'd like to take the next question. From Goldman Sachs, Mr. Miyazaki over to you.

This is Miyazaki of Goldman Sachs. I have one question. I'd like to ask about the profit change in the first quarter. I'm looking at the Page 5. And in this other lost, there might be some phasing. And in the second quarter, normal, they will be increasing. However, still in the last 1 year, the average others was around JPY 40 billion, or so for [indiscernible], but this seems to be a bit smaller with the [indiscernible]. And initially, you said that the cost it's going to be more than JPY 164 billion the last year. So if that remains unchanged in the Q2 and onward, this is a cost increase be much larger is my observation correct? And also talking about the price mix, this is 8.2%. And this seems to be a bit big one. And also you're going to have the offset made to offset the cost increase. And then the base mix benefit should be bigger than this in the Q2 onward. So you had the pricing in January and onward and also price mix impact to be bigger in the Q2 and onwards. So would you comment on the price mix and others? So for these Tobacco business, AOPs, change factor, others and the price mix and the results and also the forecast [indiscernible] make some comment. Talking about others, as explained earlier, Well, you seem to have a different impression. But in the Q2 onwards, especially for the pool in each market. since the launch in the previous year, it has been progressing in terms of the awareness and also trial have been increasing, and that has led to the better retention. And we are going to spend more investment to that word. So that means we're going to have the certain level of the cost or the investment. And cost-wise, Well, there will be some impact by the inflation, and it will be increasing with that. And talking about the pricing, well compared with the initial forecast, that is already 80% of the pricing is already done. And going forward, we continue to have the solid pricing as scheduled. So in Q1, our level of achieve, it is very high. But in addition to that, we will have the add-on and which is already put into the plan, and we continue to make further progress.

The next question comes from Mr. Furuta, SMBC Nikko Securities.

This is Furuta from SMBC Nikko Securities. I also have one question. So the first quarter there has been discussion that it has been strong. So what has been the biggest factor that you're seeing a stronger results comparison to the plan. So of course, you had pricing and so forth. So what do you believe that was the biggest factor that you perform better. So the question is related to the fact that the action was better than the plan for the first quarter. Mr. Kato will reply. So I already mentioned the pricing and the Q1. We've been able to execute 80%. We've been able to secure the 80% of the pricing. And as I mentioned, and that was actually better than our initial anticipation. So for instance, in the Philippines, we've been able to execute the pricing strategy, and that has been very instrumental in achieving these results.

And also going forward then. So you've talked about the timing difference in investment and also there are some concerns related to the industry volume in Russia. So in terms of the increase in the EPS and then also the guidance for the full year, would you appreciate that you still achieve those. So of course, I think the strength that we've seen in quarter 1 that may actually expect us to see an upward revision. Well, actually, Q1 has been very strong. And as mentioned already, the business fundamentals continue to be very strong, and we believe this could be carried on. So we have high confidence in doing that. However, this is again at the time of the first quarter. So the second quarter onwards, just to repeat myself, we expect to see more investment and we need to pay a close attention to the volume outlook as well. So second quarter onwards, Accordingly, we'd like to provide an update. Again, just to repeat myself, as of today, we have been able to make a very strong start. So we have confidence as of this moment that we can achieve the guidance number. That is all.

Now I'll take the next question. From Daiwa Securities, Mr. Hashiguchi.

I'm Hashiguchi from Daiwa Securities. So which is not covered in the category share of the Japanese market. So Slide 8 shows 15.8% and up by 3.1 percentage point year-on-year basis. But looking closely, in Q4, it was 15.7%. So quarter-on-quarter, it is almost flattish. So how do you see this number? And do you see that you are gaining share? So would you have your comment on a quarter-on-quarter basis, please?

So the [indiscernible] category share in Japan and also the quarter-on-quarter basis, Mr. Kato, will comment.

As you see, the cure in the previous year, the [indiscernible] category share was 15.7%, and this time, this is 15.8%. It seems that growth seems to be rather slowing down. Yes, I do agree your observation. And Primula growth in Japanese market is not decelerating actually, and the momentum is solidly sustained. However, at the end of the day, the share gain is now slowing down and [indiscernible] because there was some impact of the temporary demand prior to the tax increase in April. And to be more specific. In March, there was a temporary demand. And for JT, yes, we did have the impact. But looking at the competitors, that March number, the increase out of the temporary demand was larger compared with ours. And that has made some impact, and that was reflected in the share movement. And then when the temporary demand impact is normalized in a few months, like in May and June, actually, we need to take a few more months to see how the situation will evolve. For the normalization, and we continue to have the close monitoring. But [indiscernible] underlying momentum itself, rather than having the concern, we are confident and will continue to grow.

And as mentioned earlier, that the marketing investment for the [indiscernible] in the Q2 onward, are you going to hit that? Is that correct? Yes, including Japan. And globally, are we going to have more investment in Q2 onwards? We'll have the SKU.

Mr. [indiscernible], thank you very much. We still have time. Appears as if there are no more questions. So now we would like to conclude the Q&A session. We will now conclude the meeting. Thank you so much for your participation, and please disconnect.