Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. (JMT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and welcome to the Jerónimo Martins 9 Months Result 2021 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Ana Luísa Virgínia, Chief Financial Officer of Jerónimo Martins Group. Please go ahead, madam.

Thank you, Maria. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining this call. In our corporate website, as usual, a set of materials is available, including the release, a slide presentation and a fact sheet adding a bit of color on our activities for the period. Our 9 months' performance was driven by strong sales across all banners. Top line growth triggered an operating leverage effect that was further enhanced by positive margin mix and incremental cost efficiencies. The determination of our banners to deliver quality at the best prices allowed them to improve their office, to renovate on the commercial actions and to execute diligently the respective expansion and remodeling programs. Despite the prevailing uncertainty on the pandemic evolution in the geographies where we operate, all our banners continue to adapt to the circumstances and took the necessary steps to protect and reinforce their competitive advantages while providing safe shopping environments. Leading the Polish food retail market, Biedronka is constantly looking for opportunities to better serve its consumers, with a very strong combination of price competitiveness and ever improved assortments, assertive and innovative commercial dynamics and an uplifted store network. Pingo Doce and Recheio maintained their long-term strategic visions of reinforcing their pillars of differentiation and investing to preserve their profitability in a difficult context, particularly for the HoReCa segment. Ara is delivering strong top line growth and sharp EBITDA improvement. Despite operating in a more fragile socioeconomic environment, Ara's business model is clearly proving to be adjusted to the Colombian consumer. All in all, consolidated sales were up by 7.1% or 9.6% at constant exchange rates. The operational leverage effect, together with a positive margin mix and efficiency improvements, led group EBITDA to grow ahead of sales by 11.1% or 13.9% at constant exchange rates. I would like to highlight just a small sample of developments in the last 3 months in matters that are of utmost importance to us. At the group level, Jerónimo Martins signed European Union Code of Conduct on responsible business and commercial practices, which is one of the first deliverables of the farm-to-fork strategy. Taking actions to reduce its environmental impact, Biedronka is expanding the installation of photovoltaic panels on its stores and distribution centers having approved the investment in more than 100 stores still this year. In the context of its eco-design packaging program, Pingo Doce banned the use of cardboard from its own brand toothpaste, saving more than 23 tons of cardboard per year. Despite the challenging circumstances, the teams are holding on to the company's sustainability goals and commitments and keeping up their efforts to cope with the long-term view. Our group's delivery on the financial targets is also visible. Focus on growth drove sales to reach EUR 15.2 billion, which, combined with a focus on productivity, pushed EBITDA to reach more than EUR 1.1 billion. Group EBITDA margin was 7.5%, improving from 7.3% in the 9 months in 2020. The excellent operational performance allowed for limited impact both of the strong commercial activity everywhere and of the retail tax implemented in Poland. As such, the group strengthened its net cash position, which, excluding capitalized operating leases, was of EUR 655 million at the end of September. In the third quarter, it is fair to say we have an operating environment that in terms of COVID-19 restrictions was close to normal in Poland and Colombia. In Portugal, July was still marked by restrictions to retail and restaurant operations. Despite progressive easing, overall pressure from a low touristic activity was felt throughout the quarter. In Poland, food inflation in the country accelerated to 3.8% in Q3 from 1.6% in Q2, driven by the prices of fresh and dairy products and a softer base of comparison with food inflation registered in Poland from Q3 '20. In Portugal, food inflation remained below 1% and and consumer demand was hampered by the slow economic recovery and the lack of tourists. In Colombia, the socioeconomic backdrop was challenging, reflecting the pandemic crisis and some social instability. Food inflation in the country at double digit in Q3 reflected the impact of the rising prices of commodities and the national supply chain disruptions experienced during May and June on the back of social protests. Looking now at the P&L for Q3. Focus on top line growth is evident as well as the work done to manage adequately the margin mix, particularly in Poland, and to further increase cost efficiency. All this combined allowed us to mitigate the pressure of the retail tax in Poland and of the intense commercial activity. The 9 months' P&L reflects the flexibility and capacity of our operations to deliver on their targets each and every month. On the comparison with 2020, I would like to remind you that the base was strongly impacted in Q2 '20 by the outbreak of COVID-19, particularly in Portugal, with impacts on operating costs, other profits and losses and minorities as well. The net financial costs declined from EUR 140 million in 9 month since '20 to EUR 190 million in 9 months in '21. Do bear in mind that the 2020 figures included a foreign exchange loss of EUR 20 million that in the 9 months since '21 was reduced to minus EUR 4 million. Cash flow generated in the 9 months since 2021 reached EUR 339 million, driven by stronger EBITDA and solid working capital inflows. Strong cash generation in the 9 months boosted our net cash position to reach EUR 655 million by the end of the period, excluding capitalized operating leases. Diving now into the operating performance, I will start with sales. Sales grew 9.6% when excluding the negative impact of the currency devaluation. This strong sales growth is the result of the continuous work put in place to improve assortment, to reinforce price positions and to execute ambitious commercial programs. This relentless commitment to better serve consumers paid off once more, and our competitive positions were reinforced. Group like-for-like was at 7.1% in the 9 months and 8.1% in Q3. Looking to the quarterly sales delivery, it is beyond any doubt that Biedronka performed remarkably throughout the 9 months. In Portugal, and after regaining some strength in Q2 on a very weak homologous period, Pingo Doce continue to benefit from volume growth in Q3, having operated with deflation in its baskets. Recheio kept recovering from the pandemic's impacts over HoReCa segment in 2020. Ara performed strongly throughout the period even if the growth rates in Q2 and Q3 also reflected the lower base of comparison as these quarters lap those most affected in Colombia by the strike down -- lockdown, the strict lockdown in 2020. Biedronka sales increased by 10.3% in zloty and 7.3% in euros to reach EUR 10.6 billion. The like-for-like growth reflected the banner's consistent work to keep improving its value proposition and to create attractive sales opportunities. Price competitiveness continued, of course, to play a central role. Basket inflation that was slightly negative in the 9 months turned positive in Q3 to be just below 1%. Also important to the outperformance of Biedronka is the execution of the expansion and remodeling programs. In the 9 months, 75 new stores, 59 net additions and 232 refurbished locations further contributed to the overall quality and efficiency of the banner. Hebe sales increased by 10.8% in local currency, 7.8% in euros. Excluding the pharma business, which was discontinued in July 2020, top line was up by 20.3% and like-for-like was at 14.4%, also including online sales. Online sales are progressing and Hebe continues to test the potential of new markets outside Poland through its e-commerce platform. Pingo Doce's sales reached almost EUR 3 billion, a growth of 3.9% over the 9 months of 2020. In Q3, the operating context was still impacted by restrictions, particularly on the activity of restaurants and coffee shops. To protect its market position, Pingo Doce implanted an intense commercial dynamic on the business. The like-for-like was driven by volume growth throughout the period and included basket deflation of 2.4% in the 9 months. In the 9 months period, Pingo Doce also added 6 new stores to the network, in line with its ambition of opening 10 stores in this year. Nine stores were remodeled. Recheio is further improving over the weak base of performance in 2020 despite the slow recovery registered in HoReCa in the market. Total sales and like-for-like grew 3.2% in the 9 months in 2021. Moving on to Colombia, Ara is doing well in a challenging backdrop. Sales in local currency grew 31.6%. In euro terms, sales increased by 23.1%. In Q3, in a market context with less restrictions than Q1, the like-for-like accelerated to reach 39.5%. The performance confirms the assertiveness of the defined value proposition in addressing the needs and trends of Colombian consumers. Strong price positioning is also a key feature of the performance and despite Ara's basket inflation having accelerated in Q3, it remained well below debt registered in the market. The execution of the expansion program is moving forward at an increased speed. And having opened 64 stores in the 9 months, Ara has also prepared the pipeline to add more than 100 stores in the year. Group EBITDA reached more than EUR 1.1 billion, 11.1%, up on the same period in 2020, a 13.9% increase at constant exchange rates. Looking at the contribution of each banner to incremental EBITDA, it is fair to say that all of them did well and had merit with special highlights to Biedronka and Ara. The EBITDA includes EUR 30 million of identifiable direct costs related to COVID-19 versus EUR 32 million in the 9 months since 2020. EBITDA margin for the group in the 9 months increased from 7.3% to 7.5%. Strong sales at all banners were pivotal to this margin performance. Biedronka delivered strong like-for-like growth, successful changes to the offer that drove sales growth and improved margin mix, stricter cost discipline and increased efficiency. This allowed the company to clearly limit the pressure of the retail tax. In Portugal, EBITDA reflected a sales-driven strategy with intense investment in commercial activity. This dynamic aims to mitigate the impact of the challenging market circumstances and is allowing the banners not only to recover operational leverage, but more importantly, to protect their value propositions going forward. Ara improved EBITDA from negative EUR 23 million in the 9 months since 2020 to a positive EUR 15 million in the 9 months in 2021, playing an important role in the group's EBITDA margin evolution. The 9 months' results mirror the good delivery on our key strategic priorities to grow sales by focusing on consumers, to invest in the value propositions to defend and further build competitive advantages, to protect profitability through cost discipline and continuous improvements in operational processes and to maintain a long-term perspective that ensures we will continue to follow a responsible path in the relationships with all stakeholders. This set of results was achieved in market context that are still volatile and require companies to be highly adaptable. Having ended the period with stronger competitive positions in all markets, we faced the last quarter of the year with confidence despite the remaining uncertainty. The balance sheet was reinforced after 9 months of strong cash generation. In light of uncertainty, we believe this strength to be not only appropriate, but also convenient as it provides the flexibility to further invest in our current businesses and to take advantage of potential growth opportunities. Finally, I confirm the outlook for 2021 as disclosed on our prior releases during this year with a small adjustment to the CapEx program from EUR 700 million to EUR 650 million following some project modifications and a stronger currency devaluation. Thank you for your attention. Operator, Maria, I'm now ready to take questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Joao Pinto from JB Capital.

I would like to address the 3 geographies. First, in Poland, what percentage of stores are currently opened on Sundays? Secondly, in Colombia, could you elaborate on the key drivers for the strong sales performance? And also in Colombia, at this stage, do you see M&A as an attractive alternative to grow or the potential targets have lost attractiveness and you would prefer to accelerate store openings organically? And third, in Portugal, are you seeing sales picking up since the ease of limits at the end of August?

Thank you for your questions. So in Poland, currently, we have more or less 1/3 of our stores opening on Sundays. Although, of course, and I think that we cannot conclude at this point if the fact that they open on Sundays does not affect the sales that, of course, we used to have on Saturday and Friday. So this usually means a transfer, but it's a convenience and an extra service that we provide to our clients in Poland in the stores -- in certain stores that are allowed to be opened. In Colombia, the drivers of growth are several, of course. And we don't hide that despite inflation, as you can see, our growth goes beyond and continues to be double digit if we exclude the inflation in our basket, which is quite below the one of the country, as I mentioned. But the main driver of growth is really the number of visits. So we are having and being able to attract much more consumers to our stores. And this is being said because, as you can imagine, in a quite fragile economy where the consumption or the household income has suffered a lot in this last year or in these last 2 years, in fact, since the pandemic, the fact is that we do not see an increase in the average baskets, but we see a lot of -- much more traffic in our stores. And this, we believe, it's because we really provide and I think that the consumer was not disappointed with the fact that Ara is really investing in prices and making sure that despite the inflation which, of course, is -- or can affect this very fragile households, which are basically on the lower middle classes, this is really a driver for the traffic that we see in the stores. So the investments in the value proposition, so good quality adds really affordable prices when compared with the other players. On the M&A question, Joao, so it's not that we exclude, of course, looking at opportunities. What we think is really that we have to focus and we have to make sure that the stores that we open are the stores that we want and that we -- and that meets the consumer needs in Colombia. And apparently, it is proven to be a successful format even if -- at the beginning, it was a little bit more difficult to pass the price perception because the stores had good quality and the assortment, too. But the fact is that this is, in my opinion, already passed. So we now have the consumer realizing that we have the best prices in the market with a very good quality in a safe environment. And this is really paramount and very important for the -- and justifies the sales growth that we are seeing in the -- in our banner in Colombia. In Portugal, as you can imagine, I will not give any color on the current trading. Of course, the fact that you have less restrictions, we always said that this would help Pingo Doce and Recheio not only because of the -- not only in the record, but even on the fact that the centers of the cities where we have most of our stores, when they were empty, of course, that hampered the traffic in our stores. And as people went or came back to the offices and to the schools, of course, this, we are sure that without giving any much more color on that, that, of course, helps traffic and help sales. This being said, of course, this is a very difficult market still. And as you can imagine, we had -- we are operating with deflation in Pingo Doce. And this was -- or was driven in the third quarter by -- mainly by foods and vegetables, which is a category that weighs a lot in the basket of Pingo Doce. And that can be a headwind somehow to the increased traffic that may be seen with ease in the restrictions. In Recheio, the progression will, of course, depend on the turnover in terms of the coming back of the tourist activity to Portugal.

And your next question comes from the line of Xavier Le Mene from BofA.

Two questions, if I may. Just back on Portugal first. I understand that, okay, you don't want to comment the current trading. But less restriction, as you said and the fact that you've been also investing a lot, as you said, in promotions during Q3 to maintain the traffic, so how do you see Q4 and going forward? Do you need to maintain this kind of promotion level? Or can you expect at some point with people coming back to the city center and less restriction to potentially ease a bit of promotion? So that's the first question on Portugal. The second one on Colombia. You have, of course, a significant improvement of profit. So what are you thinking heading into 2022 and regarding the target you had to break even. So do you seem definitely more comfortable today? And maybe do you have any expectations there in terms of where the profit could go over the next, I don't know, 12 months or 2 or 3 years in Colombia. That would be very helpful.

Thank you, Xavier. So for Portugal, of course, and usually, as you know, I'm quite cautious when it comes to context that it's still highly -- or it's still highly uncertain. And I think that's winter, as we are seeing is coming, and we are seeing even from the epidemiological point of view that there are a lot of uncertainties despite, of course, the fact that in Portugal, the vaccination process went very well as you are probably aware. But so with this uncertainty and with a still very, let's say, sensitive and fragile economy, very -- that relies a lot on the tourism activity and I think that, of course, it's challenging. So it's -- I don't think, in my opinion, that either the promotional leverage or the competitiveness in the market will slow down, on the contrary. We have a lot of capacity being added in the market. And the overall market is not growing a lot. And so basically, what we think is that, yes, less restrictions, but we don't know if there will be any tiding up depending on the evolution of the dynamic. But less restrictions means that we have much more opportunities. But I don't think that considering the current socioeconomic environment in Portugal, that we will see a slowdown on promotions or on the price competitiveness of Pingo Doce to really prove to the consumers that this is the place where they should do their shopping in terms of food where they find the best quality with the best price. On Colombia, you're right, of course. These results give me much more comfort that it is possible to reach breakeven next year. I will not commit. Our ambition was to be at a little bit sooner. With the pandemic, that was again delayed. But currently, I think that if -- I already thought in our last call that it would be possible to reach breakeven in 2022 with these kind of results and with this performance at top level and with consumers responding to the format, that makes me much more comfortable to say that I think it's possible to reach the breakeven. And not only possible to reach the breakeven, but also to start steadily and progressively, as we mentioned, see our path to profitability, not only at EBITDA level, but the ambition is really to be profitable at -- in terms of operating invested capital, as I usually say. And of course, the operational leverage, the way that the densities of each store is to increase will help a lot. So I think that operational level will -- leverage will progressively have an effect on Colombia to be much more profitable in 2, 3 years' time. That is the aim. And I think that now that I feel much more comfortable to say that this is how it's going to proceed the way that I see the market that, as I said, still is having a lot of difficulties. Our target client doesn't have much available income, but the fact is that they prefer our format. And I think that the company is really responding and not deceiving the consumer at all.

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Rob Joyce from Goldman Sachs.

Sorry, to build on Colombia. Just maybe a few quick ones, if you can clarify. Are you able to give us the number of your basket inflation in the quarter? And then can you also remind us how -- or give us some kind of reference point on to how your prices compare versus peers? Is there any sort of benchmark you can give us on that? And then finally, on Colombia, clearly, the margins moved up materially in the quarter. Is this a reference point you think we can build the margin from going forward? Or is there any sort of one-offs in that margin in the period? And actually finally on that, I guess you talked about Colombia. Well, I asked you, I think the question before, could Colombia get to sort of Poland levels of return on invested capital and margin. Just wondering if your thoughts have evolved on that. And then very quickly on Poland, could you just give us the market share evolution and basket inflation there in the quarter?

Thank you, Rob. So on Colombia, first, I hope to have taken all your points. So let me know, Rob. So on basket inflation, in the quarter, was 7% versus 11 -- more than 11% of country's food inflation. In terms of price points, of course, this differs depending on the category. I believe that currently, we are, even compared with other discounters, the most competitive in the commodities, the grocers, which are the most important category for the low middle class families. When compared overall or considering the main baskets, I would say that we are slightly more competitive than the discounters, but much more competitive than hypermarkets, supermarkets and, of course, the traditional, which are, let's say, our most direct competitors within the neighborhoods in Colombia. So I would say that probably currently, Ara is the most competitive banner even when compared with the other discounters. In terms of margins, so as you know, we don't usually give a lot of visibility to our gross margin. This being said, the the increase in volumes and the fact that we are growing, of course, helps in getting better cost of goods sold, for sure. But we are also investing to really, as I said, not deceiving and to take the opportunity to really build the price perceptions of Ara in the mind of consumers. And I think this is the right moment to do that when the economy is much more fragile. So for the future, I would say that, yes, with more volumes and being able to provide more opportunities also to our suppliers, the cost of goods sold will tend to decrease. But we also don't want to deceive the consumer. So at this point, I cannot say if we are going to increase or not in terms of margins. But what we expect is really to increase at the EBITDA level by getting the operational leverage kicking in, in the -- on the P&L. In Poland, so we're getting to Polish -- to Biedronka's return on investment capital. I usually say, as you know, that Biedronka is one of a kind. It was an opportunity build in a certain way with a certain speed in a certain context, which is different from Colombia, for sure. This being said, I think it's possible, and it would be an ambition to get to our margins and operational profitability in Colombia also. But getting to return on invested capital in Poland, I think it's an almost impossible task. So at this point, we cannot put that ambition with our colleagues in Colombia that are doing very hard and good work also. In terms of market share for Poland, so we have increased over the period 1.6 percentage points to, I believe, 27% at this point on accumulated. And what was the other question, was the basket?

It's the basket inflation, yes.

Okay. So it's below 1%, in the quarter. But it's still slightly negative in the 9 months.

And the next question comes from the line of Andrew Gwynn from Exane.

Two questions, hopefully quite quick. But firstly, on Colombia. I mean obviously, the ambition to improve profit clearly well received. But is there also some thinking about doubling down either in the price investment or also on the store opening? Obviously, the store opening pace had been slowed a little bit in the last few years. Second question, just on Poland. We're clearly seeing significant inflation in the market. Some of that, I'm sure, is perhaps down to the retail tax and some of it is obviously just cost inflation. But just help us understand the context of that cost inflation in a bit more detail. And also, do you think that the retail tax has been passed through to the consumer?

Thank you, Andrew. So on Colombia, it's true that at a certain point and particularly due to the pandemic, we had slowed down or were forced to slightly slow down the number of openings by Ara, but currently, our -- we are speeding up. And as I said, our aim is really to add more than 100 stores this year and accelerate for the next years. The way that we are seizing the opportunity, and if there is no major constraints and we don't hide that there is still a lot of volatility even around the pandemic and its effects on economies that are much more fragile or much more open or dependence on the imports and on certain commodities, so this is going to be, of course, very important to -- in the next years. But this being said, our idea is not really to slow down, it's to speed up with the expansion. And in terms of this year, we are on target. So it's true that we opened 64 in the 9 months. But we are aiming and we have the team really prepare the pipeline to deliver more than 100 stores this year and increase the speeds for next year. In Poland, the retail tax, so it's quite complex. As I always said, all taxes have systemic effect in the economy in all agents. We cannot -- as I cannot say that without the retail tax, our EBITDA margin would have increased 1.35%, which is the retail tax that currently Biedronka pays. But of course, I cannot also say that overall, part of the market is not -- or part of the inflation that we are seeing is due to that. But what I see very frankly is that when I look at the prices of commodities, when we look at the remaining production factors, it's true, and as you really mentioned, there is a lot of cost inflation in all of them in Poland. So wages have been increasing, following also the minimum wage adjustments that have been made. As you probably are aware, now the announced minimum wage increase for next year is again 7 point -- or around 7.5%. And we know also that there is a lot of pressure in terms of cost of energy and cost of commodities, not only in foods, but in other materials and in nonfood, including equipment. So this was already expected, knowing that we have in Poland, particularly has to do a really turnaround in the energy sector and knowing that the economy continues to be -- or to produce a lot of things locally. But this being said, this also will allow for more available income to the consumer. And so provided that inflation doesn't go into a very high number, I think that we will -- and Biedronka will be able to take advantage of the situation. And of course, we'll do everything to mitigate the pressure on costs that is expected. So this is something that we have in our equation for the plans for next year.

Sorry, just come back to acceleration. I mean acceleration, is that 120? Is it 150, 200? Just -- sorry.

It can go up to that. But we will give our guidance in the full year results. But I think it's really possible to go above the 100, 150 stores, yes, for sure.

And the next question comes from the line of Cedric Lecasble from Stifel.

Most of my questions have been answered, but I have 2 remaining, if I may. So first one on Portugal. On Portugal profitability, two things. Ana Luísa, could you recap the basket deflation phasing between the quarters, Q1, Q2, Q3, just to be sure. I heard 240 basis points deflation in Q3. That's quite intense, and I wanted to check this number to be sure I got it well. And when -- given the context and promotional environment, when can you come back in your view to pre-pandemic profitability in Portugal in retail? That's number one. And number two, to follow up on this cost inflation in Poland. You've been able this year to mitigate the retail tax through operating leverage. Do you expect to be in a position to mitigate cost inflation that you just mentioned next year if you don't have a major basket inflation and if you continue to be quite aggressive on your pricing?

Thank you, Cedric. So on Portugal, in terms of the basket deflation, this was higher in Q1, around 3%, also in Q2 was 2.4% and now it was 1.7% on total. Although, as I said, fruits and vegetables were above 6% deflation. And this is, of course, very important. This is a very important category on Pingo Doce. On the profitability, of course, we would like to recover the profitability on the pre-pandemic values. But we know also is quite challenging. The way that we see things progressing on the HoReCa segment is quite slow. So we are seeing some positive signs, but it's not the same level. Even the traffic, the airlines, all the tourism has been quite affected. And as I've been saying, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and we are seeing new waves of the COVID pandemic in several countries in Europe again. And so this -- we don't know if that will happen also in Portugal. And that, of course, we know that it will affect, for sure, the activity and all the recovery. So what we expect, and we will be working under a scenario that is not the most optimistic because, of course, we have to prepare -- we prefer to prepare the companies in a context that is challenging with cost pressure and some challenges at the top line. But we prefer to work with that scenario. And then, of course, if things recover faster, the better. So nonetheless, I think that the companies are working and what we expect, of course, unless there is any disruptions or any decisions on any of the headings is to be able to improve performance versus last year for sure and to recover in the next years also. On Poland and the cost inflation, as we said, of course, the main driver to limit the impact of the retail tax was really the growth in sales and the operational leverage. It's going to be more challenging. So this is not -- this was not done without really hard work from the team. It seems easy when we look at the numbers, but it was not. And this really demands a lot of assertiveness in the promotions, that they put a lot of innovation in the assortment, taking real advantage of the available income and of the behavior of the consumer that really made sure that Biedronka was the chosen store throughout the pandemic and after the pandemic. And I think that looking at what the team is doing, not giving much room and not underestimating what our competitors are doing in Poland, we are preparing ourselves, of course, to operate with more pressure on costs, but never forgetting that we should be focusing on the consumer and on our offer to really make sure that the operational lever continues to kick in. So we think that it's possible to limit -- to continue to limit the impact if we do not lose competitiveness and we do not lose the assertiveness that we are putting on the offer provided to the consumer.

Okay. So a kind of flattish, new flattish margin evolution in '22 would be a reasonable scenario assumption?

Well, the company will work for that. But of course, I cannot commit. But I think that it's possible still.

And the next question comes from the line of Jose Rito from Caixabank.

Yes. So 3 questions on Colombia. The first related with gross margin evolution. Just to understand if this year, the solution has been better or worse versus what you had planned for the year? Still on the gross margin, how long do you think this could take until reaching more normalized levels? And on theoretical terms, if you think that in Colombia, you can get gross margin level similar to Biedronka, for instance. I would assume that the evolution on the gross margin will be crucial to see a strong margin uplift. So I would ask some more details, if you can, on this gross margin evolution. Still on Colombia, if you are planning to add any new region shortly? And finally, regarding the DTAs in the country, an indication when do you expect to activate these, now that you have reached EBITDA breakeven in the quarter? And well, a final question on Romania, if you can comment anything on this.

Jose, many thanks for your questions. I didn't heard the last one that you mentioned on Colombia.

Yes. So the DTA, so the tax credits that you have been -- when do you expect to activate this?

Okay. Okay. Perfect. So on the gross margin evolutions, Jose, of course, as I already said, we have been seeing an increase gross margin. And that has to do with not only the kind of assortment, but of course, the fact that we have much more volumes, and that, of course, brings more efficiency to our suppliers and make us being able to have better cost of goods sold. But I also said that we don't want to lose the opportunity to be the most competitive in the market. And so we are investing. If you ask me, would I expect an acceleration of the margin higher than today? Probably yes. But as we are facing a consumer that, contrary to some years ago, is not seeing its income increasing, on the contrary. So on this, we prefer really, and I think that the main driver of profitability at EBITDA level will turn to be the sales density. And we always say that and the fact that we are able to really dilute our cost structure. And so this being said, of course, the margins or the gross margin of Poland may be attained, but it's not the priority. The priority is really to be relevant to the consumer and to increase sales density, so to densify the stores, the current stores and to grow on the current stores, which we find it as possible and really feasible to not only attain breakeven, but then to have, as I said, the retail on invested capital also on the positive ground. On the tax credits, of course, one thing. First, we have to attain breakeven not at adjusted EBITDA level, but we have to take into consideration also the remaining headings in the P&L. So for now, it's a little bit premature. But it's something, of course, that we'll have to address depending on the evolution of the business, definitely. And so we will have -- but we'll let you know when -- and in our annual reports, whenever, of course, we decide to start booking deferred taxes on the Colombian business. On Romania, so it's -- again, it's an ambition that we have. We, as I said, delayed a little bit the monitoring of the market, considering the the pandemic environment. Unfortunately, let's say, that this end of the year is not also good for Romania, where the number of cases are quite increasing and the number of deaths. This being said, the Board is, of course, discussing portfolio alternatives. But at this point, I think that we don't have anything to add. Probably we'll have some news later, but not for now.

Okay. Okay. Understood. Just on the gross margin in Colombia, obviously, you don't want to share how much is the level. But can you say if the difference between Colombia and Biedronka is at 7 percentile points between both gross margin, around that level?

At this point, no, I cannot say. But it's still -- there is still a difference, of course.

And the next question comes from the line of James Grzinic from Jefferies.

I just had 2. And the first one is just to simply apply the margin swing we saw in Colombia, I don't know if it's 2 years back or a year back in Q3 to Q4, it looks like as if getting to positive EBITDA pre-IFRS 16 is doable for the full year. Is there any reason why I shouldn't be thinking that way? And the second one is if I extend out to year-end, the sort of cash balance you're likely to finish this year, let's call it about EUR 1 billion, it's quite a lot of cash. I get why you want to keep balance sheet optionality. But at what point is you get to too much cash on balance sheet?

Thank you, James. Just to try to understand your first question on Colombia margin. So you are saying, excluding IFRS 16, if it's possible to have a positive EBITDA still this year 2021?

Yes. Correct. I'm just taking the swing you've just reported in Q3, applying it to Q4 on the base and essentially get to profit pre-IFRS 16 and the full year. I'm just wondering where I'm getting -- going wrong.

I think it's very difficult because if you look at Q4 -- so we had positive -- excluding IFRS 16, we already posted positive EBITDA, very marginal, but a positive EBITDA, so a swing versus last year. On the fourth quarter, of course, we expect, of course, to be positive. But also you have to take into consideration that there was a big improvement last year in the EBITDA margin also in the fourth quarter. This being said, I think it's quite difficult. If you ask me, would it be possible? I think it's unlikely because you still have the losses from the other quarters to compensate for. So it's -- I think it's quite difficult. But it's going to be positive on the quarter. We expect that. On the cash at year-end, so as I said, we feel much more comfortable under the current context and with the uncertainty that we see and with the ambition to continue to invest in our businesses and on new business opportunities to have some cash available. But of course, we don't exclude if nothing happens, that the Board will have to discuss. And as it happened in the past, and I think that we never -- we always flag that, that if at a certain point, we thought that we would still maintain the flexibility and the amount of cash was still higher than what we needed, we would return it back to the shareholders. So I think that the Board will have to discuss that. And it's a scenario that cannot be excluded to have a higher dividend than the used the usual policy or the group -- the policy that is in force in the group currently.

Understood. Can I perhaps ask you a quick follow-up on Colombia. I'm just wondering, can you perhaps help us understand when you expect the business to be self-funding from a cash flow perspective, that would be very helpful.

On that, of course, it will depend also on the evolution. But with the growth that it has, I think that's -- it's possible in 2, 3 years' time for the cash flow at the operational level to be positive because you'll have the EBITDA positive and the working capital is already negative in the case of the Colombian business. And of course, we have all the CapEx that we are accelerating. But with the operational leverage, we also think it's possible to have that. For the moment, you still need to finance -- to have extra finance for the business. But we think that the business deserves all the support. And as I previously said, we feel much more comfortable that together with the breakeven, not only the P&L, but also the balance sheet will be reinforced.

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Mr. William Woods from Bernstein.

Just 2 for me. You talked about the positive margin mix efficiencies in Poland. And I suppose I'd just like a little bit of context on how and how they were achieved, in particular, in the context of the 40 basis point headwind to gross profit in Q3. And then secondly, just on the distribution costs on a 9-month basis, we saw them down by about 90 basis points. You've obviously talked about operating efficiencies. Can you just talk a little bit about how those distribution costs efficiencies were achieved and what's changed effectively?

Thank you, William. So on the margin in Poland, so what I said is, of course, and this is quite important, not only for margin, but starting with sales, is the innovations and the way we craft also -- not only the novelties in the assortment, but the way that we craft the promotional activity and particularly the promotional activity in this third quarter, but also the in and outs that we put in place, that usually are products that are, let's say, an upgrade on the assortment trading or taking advantage of the up trading and the more available income and the willingness of the consumer to also try new products. And of course, as you add or as you have a different mix on your sales with these more value-added products, although they are the most competitive in the market, they tend to add also in terms of margin mix to perform better. So the way that this is done and really designed in terms of not only the promotional activity, as I said, but even of the novelties in the offer, brings you this extra margin that compensates for the retail tax with no direct cost increase. So the fact that -- and I usually give this example, the fact that the consumer is able to buy a more value-added ice cream means that you are paying a higher price, but for very different products. And so it's not really an inflation, but it's something that adds on sales and adds on to the margin mix, as we will not, as I said, lose any competitiveness on the more basic products, but we are able to manage the remaining offer to compensate for the investments that we keep doing on the remaining more, let's say, more commodities or basic products. On the distribution costs. So of course, we have the pressure, and we are feeling that already in terms of transport costs. But we also operate in terms of the way that we built our distribution centers, the way that we built our transport flows and all the supply chain to take advantage or to really mitigate. But the most important, as I always said, is the sales and the fact that you dilute even if you are able to maintain the cost. You -- basically, if you get sales at the top level, that, of course, will mean that you are able really to dilute a big part, which mostly with the exception of the cost of goods sold is fixed costs at the logistics level.

And the next question comes from the line of Artur Amaro from Caixa-Banco.

I would just like to know if you can give us a little follow-up or a snapshot or how the market share is evolving in Portugal.

Thank you, Artur. So overall, on -- in terms of market share and in Portugal, unfortunate, contrary to Poland, and Colombia is also a little bit tricky because we don't have really the the market shares of the traditional consumers. And in Portugal, it's also a little bit tricky because the official numbers don't have most of the players, namely the discounters. From what we monitor, of course, and knowing that Pingo Doce has a quite important part of its sales in the part of the restaurants and the coffee shop, so it's not fully comparable. But I would say that for the 9 months, we are slightly gaining market share.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Antonio Seladas from A|S Independent.

All the questions were answered. Just congratulations for the figures.

Thank you very much, Antonio.

Okay. And the last question will be from Nick Coulter from Citi.

I have the honor of closing the show. Just one quick one, please. Can I ask about your acquisition criteria or how you might think about return hurdles or payback periods for any potential M&A?

Thank you, Nick. That is a difficult one. Usually, what -- of course, what we target is and we don't hide, we are much more willing to take opportunities in proximity in a format that is a neighborhood store, but with potential to grow. So not really on the convenience formats. In terms of hurdles or in terms of payback, as you probably noticed, we are quite there, I would say, because usually, we put it really on the longer term. If we enter a market and we believe the opportunity, we don't -- and that was the example of Poland, and it's being the example also of Colombia. So if we really believe that this can be -- that can be a turnaround and a big opportunity in proximity, we don't mind to wait a while. And in the case of these 2 -- up to the 10-year period. On the hurdle rates, usually, we use a cost of capital that with a certain -- so we are -- usually, we ask from the businesses to be a little bit more ambitious. We tend to be a little bit conservative, as you can imagine. So usually, it's the cost of capital with also a slight premium in our hurdle rates.

Okay. So we're kind of talking 10-year period with kind of, say, a mid-teens hurdle? Is that without putting words in your mouth, so apologies, kind of a sensible way of thinking about it?

Well, it depends on the markets and on the opportunity. Of course, we will do our best to make money sooner than that. But yes, it can be possible. It can be possible. But it really depends on the market. The hurdle rate is the same thing. So we will -- the hurdle rate will depend on the market that we want to get in. And I would presume that, of course, if you are asking for Romania, it will be higher than in Poland.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

Thank you all for your questions and for attending this conference call. Our group of companies posted a strong performance in these 9 months, which further reinforces the banner's capacity to compete now and in the future. Biedronka continues to grow over a strong base, and it is notable to see how the banner keeps relentlessly fighting for consumer preference. Ara is confirming the strength of its value proposition and is performing well under challenging circumstances. The ambition to grow is hands in doors by the outcomes of the intense work done so far. In Portugal, market recovery is expected to be slow. Keeping focused on ensuring competitiveness Pingo Doce and Recheio will keep investing to support sales growth. All in all, these results further reinforce our confidence on the quality of our business models and of our teams, which, together with the strength of our balance sheet, will allow us to keep growing in line with our vision and our ambition. Thank you once again, and I wish you all a nice day.

Thank you, everyone. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may all disconnect. Speakers, please stand by.