JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

June 2, 2021

New York Stock Exchange US Financials Banks conference_presentation 36 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#1

Up next is JPMorgan. With us this year is Mary Erdoes, CEO of Asset & Wealth Management. This includes private banking or wealth management as well as global institutional asset management and retail asset management. Client assets totaled $4 trillion. There's $14 billion roughly of revenues, and it's 10% to 15% of overall JPMorgan, depending on what year you look at it. So Mary, thank you so much for joining, and welcome to the conference.

Mary Erdoes

executive
#2

Well, thank you. JPMorgan is super proud to be part of this and very, very thankful that Deutsche Bank included us. So thank you.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#3

So I think we'll just jump right into the fireside chat format here. The firm overall continues to make a lot of investments year in, year out, did recently increase the level of investments for this year. And I think many realize this is a key reason for the strong performance. As I think about your world, clearly, areas such as wealth, ESG, China and just broadly speaking, technology, are areas of focus. So I do want to just dive into these, and let's start with wealth, which gets a lot of attention. You've been adding FAs. You've been leveraging technology to expand. Maybe you can give us a broad update on what's going on here?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#4

Yes, sure. Well, we're really proud of the strong performance that the wealth space has provided for the firm, and especially in the private bank, the leadership position that it has around the world. I always say that if you want to have an understanding of all of JPMorgan Chase, you should become a private banking client because it's really where we bring together the entire firm. We bring the institutional capital markets expertise of the world's best investment bank, the expansive reach of our commercial bank, sophisticated lending, structural tax, entity work, executive comp expertise, and then, of course, access to the outside managers where many of them are exclusive to us, some of the world's best hedge fund, private equity real estate managers. So it's a very, very special part of our firm. And it's the reason, I believe, that it has such high market share in various parts of the world, as high as 10% or 15%, in cities like New York, or Madrid at the high end. But that's really nowhere near where we want to be in the high net worth part of the market, which is much, much more fragmented. And that's really one of the biggest opportunities across our firm, is to continue to take that high end of what we do and just go all the way down.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#5

And talk about closing those gaps because I think you put some metrics out there that the ultra-high net worth is roughly 2x the mass affluent and I think 4x or even more of that of the high net worth. So how are you at closing that gap? And is that reasonable to think that, over time, that gap can be closed?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#6

Yes. One of the -- I think one of the most special things we've done in this firm over the past couple of years is create a partnership across my line of business, the Asset & Wealth Management business and the CCB, especially between the private bank and what we call Chase Wealth Management, it's really been one of our greatest successes. We've been able to empower the Chase advisor in the branch and be able to provide them with the private banking products and services. And it's really -- it's a finely tuned machine. Eric Tepper, who's at the helm of that, work super hard to give customers across all 4,872 branches the ability to have the investment help across what we do for the private bank, which is a simplified version for the clients that walk into the branch. And we've tweaked it over time. We began really with just one balanced module. And today, it's a fuller range of brokerage, investment, insurance, advisory at a very fast-growing area. To enable that scale, we've spent a lot of time on the modernization of all of the tools at the fingertips of the people in the branches from the CRM system to the goals-based planning, and we also spent a lot of time on intense training so that we have the standard of care for our advisers who are out there. The pandemic surprised us even more so. Since COVID began and the lockdown, we've had 75% of our branches have been open every single day, some of them 6 days a week, and we're now in 48 states across the United States of America. So it's just amazing, as stressful as it was and still is, what they've done with gusto and the fortitude to help clients to navigate. I previewed it at the 2020 Investor Day that I thought this would be a record growth of accounts, clients, revenues. And I underestimated really what it was. As recently as now, we're averaging about 10,000 clients a month to become investment clients. And it's a real reminder to all of us, the difference of an in-person interchange with clients, remembering that 70% of everything that we do in life is nonverbal communication, and I think that, that's what's really translated itself to these results, which is also making me excited about the wholesale business. We've, thankfully, just 2 weeks ago, opened up 55 offices across the United States of America, finally. We've been traveling nonstop, Seattle, San Fran, L.A., Chicago, Texas, Miami, Boston, on my way next week to Geneva and Milan, and any part of the EU that will let me in. But -- and so many clients are coming also here to New York. We've had a lot of international clients come in, several a day, and we're really excited that we're the first meeting that they've had, the first bank they've come into. So that's making us feel quite proud. But this morning, even I -- I'm getting some of the fields saying the limitations that we've got currently in place of 50% capacity in our offices are already being bumped up again. So there's really -- we just want to make sure that we can continue to keep up with the fact that people do want to be back in the office and working together, really high rates, and especially places like Hong Kong, Shanghai, where we're back at 70%.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#7

And it seems like everyone is trying to expand in wealth from a global perspective and whether it's banks as globally focused as you or even just kind of more plain vanilla regional banks in the U.S.? It's an area that everyone wants to expand. Do you think we'll see meaningful consolidation from here? Or is it just going to stay fragmented?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#8

Yes. No, it's a very good question. I mean wealth management is really one of the most fragmented parts of financial services. The top 10 firms globally only capture about 20% of the aggregate market share. And if you think about that compared to like sales and trading and investment banking, where the top 10 firms have now 65-ish, 50% market share, respectively. So it's -- I think it's going to stay very fragmented. Having said that, I think you're going to see meaningful consolidation at some of the higher end through both organic and inorganic efforts. On the organic front, the largest managers just continue to grow. And it's just -- it's harder to stay smaller and undifferentiated. If you just look at the past couple of years, the largest 8 wealth management firms, think about JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Schwab, Bank of America, et cetera. They increased market share by about 2 points or $6 trillion. The AUS grew about 23% in 2020, despite actually the global wealth contracting by about 3%. So I think it's a tale of many cities. I personally believe that the business ingredients for the successful endgame winners is a combination of a local presence, which I just mentioned is just so important in this business, plus a global reach and access, which is equally important. And then the higher you go on the spectrum, the more important it is to deal with the whole balance sheet of the client. And so first, you got to be able to connect locally and not just the offices across the United States of America and the branches, but also the 21 countries that we operate in around the world. Very few wealth management competitors actually have gotten that right. Some have chosen just to focus on the U.S., and that's fine. But I believe, in today's world, global is really -- it's really an important component of this. And so I think that's the winning form. I don't know how you deal with things like global execution and money movements, inbound, outbound, on-the-ground research, cyber protection, I mean, we spent $12 billion in technology alone. It's super hard to keep up with that. So I think all of those are part of the equation.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#9

And how about margins? Wealth is one of the areas where margins have held up, especially kind of in the upper end of the customer base here. What's your outlook on Wealth Management margins? Obviously, keeping in mind how much competition there is out there right now?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#10

Yes. I think that the margins are going to continue to be quite healthy. On the ones that have the scale, scale is the most important part. Everything else, you're going to need to outsource. You'll see that change in the outsourcing side of the business. But I think that the endgame winners and the ones that have those 3 ingredients, local presence, global reach, dealing with the whole balance sheet of the client, loans are a very, very important part of this equation, that those are the ones that will be able to take that and constantly reinvest. And those reinvestments and making sure that the client have everything at their fingertips from the digital access that is so critical. Everything that needs to be done in an old-fashioned way, you just -- you won't stay up with the fintechs of the world and the like, unless you're constantly reinvesting there.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#11

So every bank investor is waiting for loan growth to pick up in aggregate. In your world, it's actually been quite strong. And maybe you could just remind us what's driving that? And how sustainable is the loan growth as you look out medium and longer term?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#12

Yes. So the industry has had a hard time with =or harder time with loan growth recently. The private bank is an exception to that. It's the one area of the firm that continues to grow at a super healthy pace. Many of you asked at our Investor Day many years ago is double-digit growth really sustainable? Isn't that too much of risk? What is it that you're doing to get it? And I pointed out 2 very important things. I said, one, we have a very small market share on this lending side. And so there's plenty of room to grow. And there's plenty of great clients out there that we don't provide lending to. And the second is that the majority of what we do is really balance sheet lending. Think about it as full recourse. Think about it as senior secured in most cases. And that's been resulting in these net charge-off rates of about 2 basis points roughly through time, and our facility grades have remained fairly constant. And so our loan growth was 17% year-over-year, and that's across the board. That's on mortgage. That's on lending. That's on margin. That's all regions, all channels. And it's a very important reminder, as you go up into the wholesale market, it's just not a commodity part of what we do. Lending can be a commodity part in other places, but not here. It's a very important part of the overall advice. You have to figure out how much you're borrowing, if at all. You have to figure out where you hold it, how do you hold it, how do you structure it? What are the tax implications? What are the generational parts of how to think about transferring it? And with interest rates where they are right now, we're working as fast as we can to help clients through this whole thing. And for those of you who haven't done a GRAT, you think about these hurdle rates, these are really important times to think about assets that might appreciate, and how do you get them taxed efficiently to the next generation. And so it's a super exciting time for all of that.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#13

So switching to another area of focus, ESG. Obviously, it's very important to JPMorgan overall and your space. How important is ESG from a perception point of view, call it, more playing defense versus playing offense and also being able to monetize it for JPMorgan and the industry and clients?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#14

Yes. It's -- well, ESG is a funny term. Personally, I believe, it's sort of strange to lump the 3 letters together. It's -- all 3 of them have always been a really important area of focus for our firm. Let's just start with the G. The G is governance, right? The -- you have to have good governance. It starts with the good governance of JPMorgan Chase. We spend an awful lot of time constantly refining that. And then we take all those lessons learned of how we do it ourselves, and we apply that when we're evaluating each and every firm that we look at. So that's not new. And all of us as the fiduciaries and research analysts and deep thinkers, we think constantly about, is the governance setup right for the sustainability of the success of these companies that we're all looking at investing in? So that's not new. It's just thrown in and lumped in with the E and the S, I believe. Now the S is really giving back to these communities and ensuring that the companies that we're -- that you're investing in, they're ensuring that they're using their voice for change. Certainly inside JPMorgan Chase, we have a culture of diversity at every level. It makes it a really great place to work. The make up of our 259,000 employees and the respect that we have in the communities that we work in around the world, I think that really speaks for itself and speaks for the power of diversity. We've recently made a $30 billion commitment to racial inequities. That's also including our partnership that we announced with REO alternatives, and that's an effort to really make a difference in the Black and Latinx leaderships roles and responsibilities across private companies in the U.S., and we're really excited about that. So the S is equally important. And then the E. And the E has 2 components. One, just from our firm's standpoint, we've recently leaned in very heavily here after signing the Paris Agreement to get to net 0 by 2050. We -- by the way, our own firm is already at a net 0 emissions as the output of what we have as a footprint for our firm. And we've made a very important $2.5 trillion environmental commitment over the next 10 years. And notably, $1 trillion of that is in the green space. So we're excited about that. But when you move over the asset management side, the asset management industry, I think the industry has a lot of work to do. Just to get a common language and just to figure out how everyone's transparency is going to be absorbable by clients in the same sort of digestible fashion, and you understand what one company is saying versus another, I think many clients might be super surprised that their carbon readiness fund is -- the top 5 holdings are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook. So I think that's just -- there's just a lot of progress we need to make to get it to where clients are putting their money where they want it and how they -- specifically they want to make a difference in the world, not necessarily how an index provider wants them to make a difference in the world, and I think that's a big change that's coming. Each and every one of our portfolio managers that we have across asset management is fully engaged in the research that they do with each CEO, each CFO, each strategic plan that they review with the clients that they're investing in and making sure that they hear that as part of what they're thinking about investing. So that's fully integrated across everything we do on the research front around the world. But clients are very hungry for this, and much more so than I've ever seen in 25 years that I've been here at JPMorgan. And just across the Wealth Management side of our business, we've had 30 different funds be launched on our platform during the pandemic. And so it's something we're spending a lot of time on. As a management team, we're spending a big portion of this helping clients. Our off-site last week on the wealth management side spent a lot of time on that. And then this week, actually, we've been spending a lot of time on the asset management side on that off-site that we've had. So it's -- yes. It's a lot in -- what we're doing, and I think it's here to stay. I think people are going to start to be much more purposeful about their wealth.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#15

It does sound like there's a lot going on, and that's helpful. Another growth area is China. And you recently announced plans to purchase China International Fund Management. I guess just to start with the basic. Like what exactly are you buying here? And is it going to be fully folded into JPMorgan? Or how will it be operating?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#16

Yes. I think you're referring to the China Investment Fund Management Company, which we're really excited about the announcement we just made. So this year, actually, we're celebrating our 100th year anniversary in China. So I'd say it's after 100 years of being present and on the ground that we've finally been granted 100% ownership of a joint venture. So that's very exciting for us. The -- I personally believe, and I've said this quite often, that it's actually, at some point, irresponsible to be an investor in today's world and not have the on-the-ground presence in China. But even if you never, ever invest in China, to not understand the dynamics of what's happening with each and every one of the companies and how fast it's growing, makes almost impossible to truly understand the companies that you're investing in, in your local country, we know wherever that is. And so China is already the #2 bond market today. It's got a market cap of $30 trillion. It's closing in on the U.S. at $35.7 trillion. I think that's an even more impressive set of stats. If you look back over the past 5 years, the U.S., 5 years ago, was at almost $23 trillion. But China was only $8.2 trillion, and now it's $30 trillion. And that's in 5 years. But there's still very, very low foreign ownership. Only 3% of the bond market is owned by foreigners. On the onshore market, 8% is in Chinese government bonds. So -- but the equity market, same story. A shares market is a $12 trillion market. If you include Hong Kong, it gets up to about $18 trillion. It's a long distance from the U.S., which is about a $45 trillion market. But China is twice the size of the Japan market. It's 3x the size of the London market. It's 25% of the global IPO activity across the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. But the foreign holding of RMB is growing so rapidly. It's up about 5x over the past 5 years. But in the MSCI indices, it's still only about 5%, despite being -- its GDP is about 16% of global of the global GDP, and it's about 9% of the market cap of stocks in the world. So financial services is probably the best example of that. The 4 largest banks in the world are in China. So to not be understanding of what's happening there and hopefully investing -- and so this joint venture is going to continue to help us in a very serious way. I mean you think about -- just think about China, it's the -- it's got 3x the number of Internet users in the U.S. It's -- 40% of the population is already middle class, it's about 588 million people. It's expected to become 70%. That's another 453 million people. It's already the second largest contributor to the global growth of consumption. It's got 35% of the luxury goods market. It's the largest auto market. It's the second largest EV market. It's the third largest STEM graduates in the world, or I think it's 3x that versus the U.S. It's got the most patent filings. The unicorns in Beijing are about -- I think it's like 93 versus San Francisco has about 68. Five of the top 10 cities in the world are in China. Only 4 of the top 10 cities of the world are in the U.S. So I just -- I -- personally, I don't understand how you can't be there on the ground. But we're all set. We have -- we're at the culmination of our 17-year partnership here. It's going to be a game changer for our growth. We're now ranked the #3 China inbound fund manager with our AUM, up from #6 just last year. We're fourth in the domestic foreign manager. We're fourth in QDII. We're first in the mutual recognition of funds. We're first in the brand recognition. And we also -- by the way, it's important to note, we announced a 10% strategic investment in China Merchant Bank Wealth Management, which is just another avenue for us to think about how we're going to grow. So China is a really -- just a really important part of the whole equation for us.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#17

Just as a follow-up, what will change going from a joint venture to 100% ownership? Is this kind of the launching point to spend more, to build it out, to capture more of the opportunity? Like what's -- I mean, I know it's kind of like a simple question, but what changes when you assume full control?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#18

A lot changes. It changes your day-to-day control of what happens with your employees there. Let's just take a very simple example. The research analysts on the ground. Today, they are 51% owned by a foreign company and 49% owned by us. So when we have our global research meetings every Monday morning, every Wednesday afternoon and we dial everybody in from around the world, that's not part and parcel of that. Just imagine when those people are the full JPMorgan employees and they become part and parcel of everything you're thinking about, from a research standpoint, it's just going to change everything that we think about from how we incorporate research and the dynamics of what's happening around the world, being -- having access to the flows, having the direct understanding and the governance of everything, I think, is just equally important. It will be 100% governed and a JPMorgan first-class business in a first-class way. So I think it's going to be a game changer for us.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#19

Switching topics, a theme that's been debated for some time, just the whole active versus passive debate. And then somewhat related, industry fee pressure more on the asset management side, we covered wealth before. First, on the active versus passive. There's been some momentum in active of late. How sustainable do you think this is after really long-term trend towards passive?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#20

Yes. I've been saying if there was ever a time for our industry where we had that like duh moment, it was 2020. And anyone who's been passive has really missed a lot. There's been an enormous amount of pivots and changes. And if you -- you're sitting there holding on to the largest 500 stocks of yesterday, you are completely missing the way that you analyze the CEOs who are attacking this change and thinking about what to do versus the ones that are just sitting there, deer in headlights. And the entire world has changed on a dime, and it is not going back. So it's never been more important to be a research analyst in today's day and age. I mean I just -- the ability to sit and digest what a CEO or a CFO are telling you about the future, not about all the stats from the past, is making all the difference. And I think those results have basically spoken for themselves. We're -- we've been #1 in long-term active flows over the past year here. We're #2, as you know, from all of our publicly-traded peers, active and passive, over the past 5 years, cumulatively, when you look at total client flows. And clients need advice. They -- I think a lot of us know these stats. But if you think about the average, like a balanced portfolio, average balanced portfolio over the past 20 years is about a 6.5% return. The actual retail investor's experience is less than 3%. Why? Because they don't have advice during the really hard times. And so to think that today's sort of do-it-yourself investor, who's got it all figured out and is going to go long and short stock like a professional manager and not going to get caught up in those same sets of statistics over the next 20 years? I think we're kidding ourselves. And I think that's why we are setting ourselves up to be an advice-driven company and people pay for advice. They may not always think they need it, but over time, they will eventually turn to a fiduciary who's been doing this for many decades and can help them through when they think about the power of compounding and investing over the long term, and they need people who are dedicated to deep research and to thinking about what are tomorrow's best and important companies, not necessarily just yesterday.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#21

And do you think in the asset management, given that positive outlook for active and the performance and the flows and some of the consolidation and pressure in margins that we've already seen, do you think we do start to kind of flatten out here in the margins and asset management?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#22

From a margin standpoint, margins are -- for my whole career, margins have been coming down, right? Because -- so they say that they're coming down in the industry because fees are coming down. How do you deal with that? You deal with fee pressure by just constantly improving what you do. And you only get fee pressure on commoditized things. You don't get fee pressure when you become a best-in-class provider and you add things on top of it. You need scale, and you certainly need strong performance. But you also need further differentiation. You need to be able to offset all these pressure points with the scale, with operational excellence. We have a, what I think, is a very healthy margin. But the most important thing we do at that margin is we reinvest it right back in the company. And given the healthiness of what's happened to our business, I think that it's super important that, just like I laid out in my annual letter, this is our biggest investment agenda ever. And we are relentlessly taking each of those dollars. And we're investing them each and every day with ROI analysis, making sure that each component is held to its -- all of the standards of what we've laid out, 6-quarter walk and each and every day, making sure that we're not off on what we're doing as we've laid it out, and that each one of them are delivering what we think is going to make a difference in this business.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#23

So we've covered a lot of organic efforts that JPMorgan has in your segment. So I think it's a good time to ask the M&A question. There has been a lot of consolidation really in different parts of your business in the industry and JPMorgan, as a firm overall, has been pretty open about being more open to doing acquisitions. So I guess the first question is, why haven't you done anything in your world?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#24

I wouldn't assume we haven't done anything. We've been doing a lot. We told everybody back at the 2020 Investor Day that this is going to be a trend. Again, I think I underestimated what a trend it would be. The value of deals the past year is up over 100%. I don't think it's a good idea to be sitting still. We've looked at about 70% more deals just in the past 12 months than the year before. That's a lot. We have a very strong organic growth hand, and that organic growth right now is supercharged. It may not stay supercharged, but it's supercharged right now. And M&A in -- especially in asset management, it's disruptive in the best of scenarios, right? It just is. It's not like a regular M&A transaction, everything you do goes on watch. 100% of your assets are people, and people don't like that kind of change. So if you're going to do it, it needs to be a really, really important one. So you've got to kiss a lot of frogs. You've got to be out there. You've got to know what's -- but you always have to have a strong organic growth hand. And that's what's happening. But we closed our acquisition of 55ip at the end of December. It's been a great add-on. I think the trend for how you personalize advice from everything you just asked about, from ESG and the like, I don't think people want to be told how to do that. I think people want to have their own voice and their own opinions. And I think things like that are going to be a very, very important part of the criteria.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#25

And as you think about the cultural integration, is there a priority to keep it under one brand or the multi-boutique model? Is something like that something you would consider? Or just trying to think of a way to get creative to add scale, but still keep some of the cultural uniqueness of firms that might be looking for a partner?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#26

That's a very good question. And some people have had success with that. JPMorgan won't do that. JPMorgan is JPMorgan. You want to become part of JPMorgan, you become part of the fabric. We've learned a lot over the many years of doing this in different ways, and I think that's something we have decided. It's just not -- it's not part of how we're going to operate.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#27

Yes. So we're almost out of time here, but I did want to touch on, you have very explicit long-term targets. The performance has obviously been very good as you touched on before with the flows and we talked about the loan growth and the good cost control, which I didn't talk about, but it's been very good. But if we look at the next few years and the market returns are lower, do you still feel good about achieving your targets with the balanced business model, really one of the ways to offset -- obviously, there's a huge decline in the market, it's going to be tough. But I think it's just the outlook for more modest returns that has people mindful that businesses like yours might be overearning and might be tougher going forward?

Mary Erdoes

executive
#28

Yes. We have talked for many years about constantly reinvesting in this business, and 2020 was a delivery year really showing that when you continue to invest purposefully and then cut every single cost you can, immediately as you can, we've delivered on that operating leverage. After adjustments, it's about 1,000 basis points of operating leverage in the first quarter. We continue to work through our Agile technology off digital acceleration. The past year has actually been a very important time to think about the daily routine from what is -- what's a heavily client-oriented business. Not flying around the world allows you to do a lot of maniacal focus on straight-through process, cutting manual work, bots, AI, machine learning, any excess -- what you didn't see is the fact that we have had 30%, 40%, 50% increases in lots of different areas that we didn't have the commensurate increase in head count because we've been able to do that by streamlining. So we are really excited about that. We're also excited that, that margin increases have been able to allow us to reinvest in our talent. That's the most important thing we have. As I mentioned, it allows us to retain the best talent. It allows us to attract some of the best portfolio managers, research analysts, operational experts. So our hiring, our digital, our data, China investing and ESG, everything you're talking about, we're able to reinvest. We're able to keep those margins. And this business is really -- it's just firing on all cylinders. It's delivering for the clients, that's most important as a fiduciary business, but it's also delivering for the shareholders.

Matthew O'Connor

analyst
#29

And I think that's a great place to end. Just as we started, investments has driven a lot of the strong performance over time, and it sounds like they will continue to do so. So Mary, thank you so much for your time.

Mary Erdoes

executive
#30

Thank you.

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