Jumbo Interactive Limited (JIN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Jumbo Interactive 1H '26 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Mike Veverka, Managing Director, CEO and Founder. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Let me begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which we meet and pay our respects to all elders past and present. Today, I'm joined by our CFO, Jatin Khosla, to present our financial results for the first half of FY '26 and our COO, Brad Board, who will provide an update on integration. I'll start with some perspective. Jumbo is quite a different company compared to just 6 months ago. We have taken significant steps in our evolution to become a truly diversified global lottery and prize draw company. 8 years ago, 100% of our profits came from Australia. Today, our international operations contribute 1/3 of our profits while the Australia business has tripled in size. We are building on over 20 years of technology maturity and expanding in the high-growth U.K. and U.S. markets. We have over 5 million active customers, providing valuable insights for an optimal customer experience and competitive advantage. Jumbo has always been a capital-light business model with prudent capital management backed by a high-performing team. So how do we keep improving? As a software engineer, I've followed the evolution of AI throughout my career and exciting to see it mature into a technical and transformative tool. At Jumbo, AI is already delivering tangible benefits from accelerating our software development life cycle to improving team productivity. Further, with the depth and quality of data we've built over many years, AI is helping us make better decisions, enhance efficiency and deliver the best possible customer experience, which not only benefits our B2C brands but also our B2B partners. It's important to note that lotteries and prize draws operate in a regulated environment. This requires sophisticated fraud detection, workforce enablement at scale and strong governance guardrails. AI enhances our capabilities in each of these areas, improving risk management, compliance and operational resilience. While AI enhances how we operate, the foundations of Jumbo's business are structural that we built over many decades. Firstly, we operate in a highly regulated lottery market supported by deep compliance capabilities and long-standing relationships, creating significant barriers to entry. Secondly, we have built a large data and platform moat. Over 5 million active players. We benefit greatly from the insights, customer engagement and significant switching costs. And thirdly, we have an operational and relationship moat. We don't just provide software. We operate lotteries and prize competitions from beginning to end. That includes governance, compliance, campaign execution, prize sourcing, and long-standing relationships with charities and stakeholders built on trust. Together, these layers of advantage, regulatory data and operations underpin the resilience of our business model and support long-term value. Now let me take you through the business update. The first half results were solid for a subdued jackpot period, punctuated by acceleration in our international growth. In Australia, we delivered a respectable result in one of the leanest periods I've seen in more than 20 years in the industry. Importantly, we maintained market share relative to jackpot activity, improved our mix through charity and proprietary product growth and built new partnerships. Jumbo's always performed strongest in high jackpots and this was seen just 2 weeks ago at the $80 million Powerball, which was our best since 2021. We are well positioned to do even better once the jackpots return. The Dream Team, which are our 2 recent acquisitions, Dream U.K. and Dream U.S., have given us genuine growth opportunities in high-growth markets. The first few months have gone really well as is evidenced by our successful integration to date and our upgraded outlook for the Dream U.K. business. Both these businesses will benefit greatly from our software and experience, so the value creation is genuine. The Managed Services segment is gaining traction with Stride performing ahead of expectations and the U.K. showing good momentum. Turning to capital management. We maintain a strong balance sheet and are focused on debt reduction and shareholder returns. The Board has declared an interim fully franked $0.12 per share dividend at the top end of our revised payout range. Moving to the numbers, which include a contribution from our recent acquisitions, we've delivered double-digit growth across all key financial metrics. Group TTV and revenue increased 16% and 29%, respectively while underlying EBITDA and NPATA both rose 23%. Free cash flow increased 81% to just under $20 million, and cash conversion remained strong at over 100%. Jatin will take you through the numbers in more detail shortly. Let's take a deeper dive into the core business in Australia, Lottery Retailing. The lean jackpot period has multiple evidence points. The aggregate Div 1 prize pool declined by 55%, the average jackpot reduced from $51 million to $41 million, and there were no $100 million jackpots, something we haven't seen since 2022. Nevertheless, we delivered a similar TTV result and increase in market share compared to pcp. This demonstrates the resilience and the increasing contribution from our charity and proprietary products, which helped offset the decline. While jackpots naturally fluctuate, the long-term fundamentals of the business remain unchanged. Looking at the key Lottery Retailing metrics, the business remains strong. Disciplined marketing execution and continued optimization of our product mix are driving improved player economics and higher lifetime value. Pleasingly, digital penetration increased 80 basis points to 41.2%, reflecting the ongoing structural shift towards digital channels. Active players moderated during the period with the prior corresponding half benefiting from a record $200 million Powerball draw. While new player volumes have normalized, player quality has improved, and that is clearly reflected in the higher average spend and stronger value metrics. Taking a closer look at the Powerball and Oz Lotto draws between $10 million and $30 million demonstrates our ability to maintain market share. Each blue dot represents our estimated market share for an individual draw with the orange line showing the half year weighted average. The marketing playbook that we introduced in January 2025 has been a success as can be seen by this graph. Retention has been strong, demonstrating player loyalty. In our SaaS division, we continue to attract new lottery clients, highlighted by our recent partnership with RSL Queensland, the largest prize home lottery in Australia. This has the potential to double TTV to over $400 million in FY '27. Existing customers continue to grow as well as can be seen in the 10% increase in TTV. Last year, we also announced that we will work with Brightstar on a subcontractor basis to support the delivery of technology and digital solutions for Lotterywest. Final terms remain subject to negotiation and Board approval. The combination of partner growth and onboarding of new partners positions SaaS to become a larger contributor over the medium term. Turning to Managed Services. Execution remains strong and momentum continues to build. The U.K. is performing in line with expectations. Stride in Canada is outperforming, driven by new business wins and expanded service offerings. This segment is well positioned and I'm pleased with this progress. However, our 2 new acquisitions, the Dream Team, as we call them, have the greatest potential for growth. And to take you through that all-important integration process, I'll hand you over to Brad.

Thanks, Mike. The Dream Team greatly enhances our B2 business with access to a combined population of approximately 450 million people. Oz Lotteries generates close to $500 million in TTV, Dream U.K. $118 million and Dream U.S. $27 million, highlighting the significant upside potential, particularly in the larger offshore markets. We are applying the same proven framework that underpins success of Oz Lotteries to our expansion in the U.K. and U.S. With approximately 1 million active customers in Australia, 650,000 in the U.K. and 165,000 in the U.S., the runway for expansion is substantial. A thoughtful and systematic program of integration is key for unlocking the full potential of it. Execution is key, and we are making every effort to get this right. The first 90 days of integration is complete, and we are ahead of schedule. Our focus has been simple preserve momentum, integrate core functions and establish strong governance while maintaining operational continuity. Phase 2 is now underway centered on platform implementation and value enablement, including leadership alignment and scaling marketing capability. Importantly, the foundations are now in place for Phase 3, where the focus shifts to growth execution, governance discipline and sustainable value creation. Integration is disciplined, on track and positioned to unlock the full potential of the Dream Team proposition. Now that we are fully embedded in both businesses, we are even more confident in their alignment with our original strategic rationale for the acquisition. What is clear is that Jumbo Lottery platform is a key strategic enabler across both businesses, just as it is for Oz Lotteries and ensure the systematic and consistent approach to growth across all 3 B2C markets while allowing us to tailor execution to the relative maturity and needs of each market. Operating 3 similar businesses globally is already generating valuable proprietary insights. Our teams are leveraging these learnings to improve operations, optimize performance and enhance confidence in our growth strategies. In summary, integration is progressing ahead of schedule, and we continue to see upside beyond our initial expectations. With that, I'll hand over to Jatin to take you through the financials.

Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Starting with the underlying EBITDA waterfall. The group delivered a resilient first half performance with underlying EBITDA up 1.4% on the pcp, excluding recent acquisitions. This reflected a slightly lower contribution from Australia due to the jackpot environment, offset by growth in Managed Services. Dream U.K. and Dream U.S. contributed 2.5 months and 2 months, respectively, adding $6.5 million and lifting group underlying EBITDA to $37.5 million. Turning to the cost base. Excluding acquisitions, underlying operating expenses increased 19.5%, reflecting deliberate investment in 2 key areas: First, marketing within Lottery Retailing, where we increased spend to reactivate players. This investment translated into market share gains versus the pcp, although we're still impacted by the softer jackpot environment. Secondly, investment in our people. The increase mainly reflects wage inflation, including the annualization effect from new hires in the second half of '25, higher bonus accruals due to strong profit growth and the translation effect of a weaker Australian dollar versus sterling. Traditional Lottery Retailing marketing spend was 2.7% of TTV within our 2.5% to 3% range and promotion spend was 0.6% of TTV within our 0.5% to 1% range. Other costs declined 6%, reflecting continued discipline across the broader cost base. Turning to Australia. Underlying EBITDA was $27 million with a margin of 47.2%, within our 46% to 50% guidance range. This was a good outcome given the jackpot environment and increased marketing investment. These factors were partially offset by continued momentum in charity and proprietary products. The improved mix, along with the Saturday Lotto and Powerball price changes resulted in a 140 basis point increase in the revenue margin to 24.8%. Within SaaS, TTV increased 10% and external revenue grew 13%. Excluding Lotterywest, which was impacted by the jackpots, TTV was up 12% and external revenue increased 23%. Moving to Managed Services, which delivered a strong result in the half. Revenue increased 17%, and underlying EBITDA grew 51%, with the underlying EBITDA margin expanding to 28%, reflecting both top line momentum and operating leverage. In the U.K., the increase in EBITDA was driven by the impact of pricing initiatives and new business wins, supported by disciplined cost management and favorable FX translation effects. In Canada, the strong increase was due to a combination of new contract wins, product launches and favorable campaign timing, which brought forward some revenue into the first half. While the first half growth rate in Canada should not be extrapolated given the soft pcp and timing effects, the underlying momentum remains strong. We now expect Canada to deliver underlying EBITDA growth in the range of 20% to 25% for the year, ahead of our previous 5% to 10% guidance range. There is no change to the U.K. guidance with EBITDA growth expected to remain within the 10% to 15% range. Turning now to our new Dream Giveaways segment, where we split out the performance of Dream U.K. and Dream U.S. Starting with Dream U.K., which contributed $11.5 million in revenue and $5.2 million in EBITDA for the 2.5 months since completion. As a reminder, net revenue reflects TTV less price costs for completed draws in the half. The business has performed ahead of our expectations, primarily due to continued momentum and favorable price/mix. As a result, we are upgrading our expected FY '26 underlying EBITDA contribution to a range of GBP 8 million to GBP 8.3 million, up from the previous range of GBP 7 million to GBP 7.3 million. Looking at Dream U.S. In order to reflect the underlying performance of the business, we have adjusted reported revenue and EBITDA for a one-off provisional fair value adjustment required under AASB 3 on the deferred revenue balance on acquisition date. This is a noncash acquisition accounting adjustment relating to draws that commenced prior to acquisition but concluded post. The equivalent fair value adjustment was not material for Dream U.K. On an underlying basis, Dream U.S. contributed $3.9 million in revenue and $1.2 million in EBITDA consistent with the U.K. revenues represented net of prices. Dream U.S. continued to perform in line with expectations and the FY '26 underlying EBITDA guidance range of USD 2.7 million to USD 3 million remains unchanged. Moving to capital management. Balance sheet remains strong, following the deployment of $130 million of net cash to establish the new Dream growth segment. Liquidity is also strong with $45 million in available funds and a further $13 million of undrawn debt capacity. The Board has declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.12 per share, representing a payout ratio of 49% of statutory NPAT at the top end of our 30% to 50% target range. Since completion of the acquisitions, we have reduced debt by approximately $10 million, and we'll continue to prioritize debt reduction. Net leverage remains conservative at 0.8x EBITDA. On-market share buyback will continue to be executed in a disciplined and opportunistic manner. Overall, our capital management approach remains prudent and balanced, focused on maintaining financial strength, reducing leverage and supporting sustainable shareholder returns while continuing to fund growth. Turning now to the cash flow waterfall, where the strength of our cash-generative model is clear, with a free cash flow of $20, million up $8.3 million on the pcp and cash conversion of over 100%. On the right-hand side of the chart, you can see the pro forma impact of the interim dividend alongside the liquidity available from our debt facility. Stepping back from the detail, this has been a disciplined and strategically important half for Jumbo. The Australian business remained resilient and delivering our margin guidance. Managed Services is delivering both revenue and earnings growth. And the Dream businesses are integrating well and establishing a meaningful growth platform. We entered the second half with good momentum with multiple growth levers in place and balance sheet flexibility. I'll now hand back to Mike.

Thanks, Jatin. Over the years, Jumbo's extensive experience and track record have delivered consistent long-term growth even as we navigate the natural ups and downs. Time and again, we've continued to grow profitably. That consistency gives us confidence as we move into the next phase of international expansion and scalable growth. In the FY '26 group outlook, we are pleased to announce two upgrades. Stride continues to perform ahead of expectations, and we are increasing EBITDA growth guidance to 20% to 25%, and Dream U.K. is also outperforming as we are pleased to upgrade EBITDA guidance to GBP 8 million to GBP 8.3 million. Aside from these upgrades, our broader group operating guidance remains unchanged. With the integration on track and RSL coming online, I'm looking forward very much to FY '27. Jumbo is quite a different business than it was just 6 months ago. We have expanded our platform and opened up significantly more international upside. We know execution is key, which is why we're laser focused on growing these businesses to their maximum potential. As I said in the beginning, Jumbo has come a long way. Our international division is now 34% of profit. I'm proud of this fact and look forward to expanding this further as we make headway with the Dream Team. That concludes the presentation. We'll now open the floor to questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from David Fabris from Macquarie.

I might start off with the Lottery Retailing business. Just on Slide 9 that the market share piece that kind of sits there for us. Can you just remind us, overall, your SKUs to Powerball, Oz Lotto and Saturday Lotto? And then if we think about your market share, it's obviously a little bit choppy period to period. Is that more to do with jackpot activity? I know you had that issue in the first half of '25, I think, with marketing but obviously, it's picked up a little bit in first half '26 down a little bit sequentially. So can we just kind of unpack some of those questions that I've just asked?

Yes. Look, Obviously, the main factor is a jackpot period. Jumbo has always underperformed with low jackpots and overperformed with the high jackpots. This is structurally how we fit in. So it hasn't been a kind period in that respect. But when the jackpots do return, we're seeing some pretty positive signs that we can still overperform. So I suppose we just need to wait until these jackpots do return.

David, it's Jatin here. So in the first half, Powerball and Oz Lotto in aggregate were about 68% of the portfolio. That's probably the lowest we've seen in recent years. Typically, we'd be at about 75% of the overall portfolio. So I think that's also what's feeding into that market share. It's just the underperformance on Powerball and Oz Lotto given the subdued jackpot environment.

Yes, perfect. That's helpful. And then just jumping on to the prize draws businesses. Can you help us unpack the first half, second half seasonality across those businesses, I guess, at TTV and whether there's any swings in the revenue margin in the halves as well?

Yes, David, I'll take that one. So it really does depend on the price/mix in each of the businesses, although we do typically see a stronger performance in the first half given the skew towards the Christmas trading period. So if I take each of the businesses in the U.K., I'd expect it to be broadly even, maybe a slight skew to the first half. But in the U.S., we did see a skew towards the first half, mainly because of the price/mix. We did a couple of high-value prices in November and December that generated some strong ticket sales. And when I look at the rest of the price/mix for the rest -- for 2H, it's not as strong as the first. So I expect a bit more of a skew in the first half of the U.S. business.

Yes, the U.S. culture is very much surrounded around Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Giving Tuesday, which played out last year.

Got it. And just a last question from me. Just on Lotterywest, Brightstar has won that contract. They've announced that. It looks like there might be an opportunity for the digital component to be carved out. Is there anything you can share around your position or opportunity with that?

Just that we're part of providing the solution. It's still something that we're working on with Brightstar. We still have a little bit more ways to go with the subcontractor agreement and still subject to Board approval. So we're not quite there yet, but we are involved in the overall solution.

Can you give any insights as to how we should think about this when it may contribute when it gets signed in sort of any quantum or guardrails you can put on it?

It might be a bit hard to make those predictions at this early stage. I think the main point at this stage is that we're involved. We're not out of it. We're involved in it. How it's actually going to play out and everything just needs a bit more time, David.

Just want to add to that, David. The existing contract will continue until November '27 with a further option to renew.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Rohan Sundram from MST Financial.

Just one for me. Michael or Jatin, where do you see the buyback at the moment in terms of your list of strategic priorities? Just given where the share price is at given versus where the business is performing and this is a pretty solid result, how are you seeing that at the moment?

Yes, it's still part of our capital management mix and something that we like to do. We're, of course, unable to use it all the time. We've got a lot of things going on in everything. But when we're able to, we're still keen for it to continue.

Yes. Okay. I guess another one. Just on the given the investment you're making into marketing to reactivate players, take share, should we still -- is there still an outlook for operating leverage in the Lottery Retailing business going forward?

I think, Ron, the way to think about that is just that guidance we've given a 46% to 50% for Australia, that is the range that we are working towards. I think it was a good result with such a lean jackpot period and the increased marketing spend to be at that rate or be closer to the bottom. So if there was a recovery in jackpots, I'd expect an improvement in that margin.

[Operator Instructions] Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Veverka for closing remarks.

That ends today's presentation. No more remarks. Thank you.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.