Karnov Group AB (publ) (KAR) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the Karnov Group Q4 2025 Report Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to CEO, Pontus Bodelsson; and CFO, Magnus Hansson. Please go ahead.

Welcome, everyone, to Karnov Group's earnings conference where we will present the outcome of the fourth quarter and full year 2025. Please go to Slide 2. I'm Pontus Bodelsson, President and CEO of the company. With me, I have our CFO, Magnus Hansson; and our Head of Investor Relations, Erik Berggren. Magnus and I will present the outcome of the quarter using a few slides, and then we'll open up for questions. With that said, let's get started with the presentation. Please go to Slide 3. In Q4, the organic growth was 4%, driven by online sales growth, including AI uplifts. The legal businesses in Region North continues to have 10% organic online sales growth. The adjusted EBITA margin improved to 26%, which is an improvement of 2 percentage points compared to Q4 previous year. Leverage was 1.3x, well below our financial target. In Q4, we achieved solid margins improvement with continued traction in AI sales. The number of AI users increased by 5x in 2025, and the number grew every quarter. We are advancing our positions, and we will, in 2026, launch our AI-powered workflow tools with seamless integration of proprietary contents. Please go to Slide 4. We ended 2025 on a high note with pleased customers and a successful renewal season in Region North. In Q4, our Legal businesses in Region North had 10% organic online sales growth and 1,100 Danish prosecutors now use our AI assistant. Moreover, a majority of the judges in Sweden are now using our AI assistant. In Region South, we progressed with rationalization of unprofitable products and the synergy execution. In Q4, we reached an adjusted EBITA margin of 17% in Region South. At the end of Q1, we will have a common AI platform across all local geographies, which will lower development expenses and generate more value for our customers. On December 1, we completed the divestment of EHS. The transaction generated proceeds of SEK 1.1 billion. Next slide, please. Let me take a minute to describe our value proposition. There is a fundamental difference between content-driven legal knowledge platforms with authored content such as Karnov and legal software providers without authored content. This is a slide which I believe is familiar to many, presenting our value to customers. To the left is our legal knowledge sources, both public sources and proprietary. Our authored content is written by our 7,000 local legal experts. The proprietary authored content is what makes Karnov a unique supplier of legal information solutions, helping our customers to make better decisions faster. This content is crucial also to develop and offer AI solutions. Next slide, please. Our core value proposition is local legal knowledge authored by our experts, trusted by more than 400,000 legal professionals across Europe. Our competitive moat is the proprietary authored content itself, solidly available via our solutions and mission-critical for our customers. AI serves as the interaction platform that delivers our proprietary authored content in increasingly valuable ways. Customers are adopting our AI solutions at an accelerating pace. Usage is increasing every month and customers report significant productivity gains. In 2025, the number of AI users increased by 5x. 5x In 2025. Seamlessly integrating knowledge with workflow tools results in more precise and efficient work for legal professionals. Soon, we will launch our content-driven workflow tools. Our ambition is to serve customers in all phases from order intake to customer delivery with our trusted content as the anchor in all phases. This broadens the scope of legal work we support and generates more value for our customers while also creating new revenue streams on an expanding market. Next slide, please. In this slide, you can see our two cost efficiency initiatives running until the end of 2026 with the ambition of harvesting efficiencies of EUR 20 million in total. At the end of Q4, we have achieved annual run rate synergies of approximately EUR 20 million. We progress ahead of plan. Next slide, please. I will now present our segment performance, starting with Region North. Region North continues to perform exceptionally well, both in terms of organic growth and profitability. The organic growth of 6% is above our financial targets and driven by higher subscription-based online sales, including AI uplift. The organic online sales growth in our legal businesses was 10% also in Q4. During the fourth quarter, the Danish Prosecutor Organization upgraded to our AI package. That means that 1,100 Danish prosecutors now have our AI assistant. At the end of September, we launched our AI solution for municipalities in both Denmark and Sweden. Since the launch, the sales momentum has been strong and the customer feedback is positive. Margins are continuing to improve, primarily due to operational leverage from higher net sales. Next slide, please. We are pleased with the margin improvement in Region South in Q4, and we progress with rationalization of unprofitable products. In Q4, the adjusted EBITA margin was 17%. The margin improvement in the quarter is thanks to synergy execution as well as positive impact from the divested training business. The organic growth was 2% in the quarter, mainly thanks to solid online sales growth in France. The Spanish business was stable in Q4. I am confident in our medium-term financial targets for Region South. From March, we will have Karnov's common AI platform across all local geographies. This will increase customer value as well as improve scalability and shorten time to market for new features. Next slide, please. With that said, we have reached the point where I hand over the floor to our CFO, Magnus Hansson. He will tell us more about the financial results. Magnus, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Pontus. So let's start with an overview, switching to Slide 11. In Q4, we achieved net sales of SEK 665 million. The organic growth was 3.8%, offset by currency effects of 3.8% and acquired growth was negative 3.7% due to the divestment of EHS and the Spanish training business. We have separated EHS from all numbers and the slides present the financial result for the current Karnov Group. Net sales, excluding EHS was SEK 648 million. The organic growth in Q4 is driven by increased online sales, including selling more licenses to existing customers, higher tier packages, AI uplift and attracting new customers. The online sales growth was 5% in local currencies. Next slide, please. Breaking down net sales on segment level, we see continued strong organic growth in Region North and modest growth in Region South in the quarter. Region North had organic growth of 6%, thanks to strong online sales performance, while Region South grew by 2%, thanks to good sales performance in France. The legal businesses in Region North, excluding the acquired carve-out Schultz business had an organic online sales growth of 10%. Revenues from AI sales are increasing quarter-by-quarter as the subscription revenues are recognized over the contract period. Next slide, please. On Slide 13, you see the net sales development within online and offline split into segments. In Region North, the online sales increased by 4% compared to Q4 of last year and accounted for 94% of the net sales in the quarter. Please note the divestment of EHS and a fairly large FX effect. In Region South, the online sales declined by 3% compared to Q4 of last year due to currency effects and accounted for approximately 79% of net sales in the quarter. Organic online sales grew by 1% in Region South. Next slide, please. Subscription-based sales increased during Q4 and represent 88% of sales in the quarter. The negative development in subscription-based sales in Region South is related to negative currency effects. The online subscription sales in local currency grew by 1% in Region South. Next slide, please. The adjusted EBITA amounted to SEK 172 million in the fourth quarter. This corresponds to an adjusted EBITA margin of 26%, which is an improvement of 2 percentage points. Excluding EHS, the adjusted EBITA amounted to SEK 167 million. The full year adjusted EBITA increased by SEK 119 million and reached 25%, excluding EHS. Synergies are coming through as expected, meaning personnel expenses are decreasing. Items affecting comparability related to restructuring and integration amounted to SEK 25 million during Q4. At the end of Q4, we have achieved synergies within the group of EUR 19.6 million on an annual run rate basis. The effect in the quarter compared to the baseline amounted to EUR 4.5 million. We are ahead of plan to achieve synergies of EUR 20 million with full effect on an annual run rate basis by the end of 2026. Next slide, please. In Q4, net sales amounted to SEK 318 million in Region North, excluding EHS. Organic growth was 6.2%. The growth is driven by online sales. We continue to strengthen our market position and attract new customers, especially in the public sector in Sweden. Adjusted EBITA was SEK 135 million, excluding EHS. This is an increase of SEK 11 million compared to last year. The adjusted EBITA margin amounted to 43%. The improvement is due to operational leverage from higher net sales. We completed the Schultz integration 6 months early and have terminated the Transitional Service Agreement at the end of 2025. This will have a positive impact on margins from Q1 of 2026. Next slide, please. During 2025, Karnov has achieved accelerating organic growth in Region North. This has been driven by the legal business uplifting customers to our AI package. In Q4, the organic online sales growth was 10%. Our tax and accounting business, DIBkunnskap, has a stable performance along with the Schultz business. DIB has now launched their AI assistant with positive feedback. The Schultz business included customers not in Karnov's core area, and the portfolio value is SEK 9 million lower going into 2026. The business case presented in connection with the acquisition still holds true. Next slide, please, which is the Region South segment. Net sales in Region South declined by SEK 28 million compared to Q4 of last year. Currency effects had a negative impact of SEK 17 million in the quarter and the divested Spanish training business, another SEK 17 million. Our French businesses had solid growth in subscription-based online sales, while the Spanish business had a stable performance in the quarter. The adjusted EBITA margin was 17% in the fourth quarter. The margin expansion is thanks to synergies coming according to plan and positive impact from the divested training business. Compared to the baseline, the cost base has decreased by SEK 25 million in Q4. Next slide, please, which presents the segment group functions. Expenses in Q4 were SEK 26 million. Next slide, please. Q4 is typically a cash-generative quarter for Karnov, reflecting the timing of the group's online contract renewals and invoicing cycle. The renewal season has been in line with our expectations and the adjusted free cash flow was SEK 239 million. The leverage was 1.3x EBITDA in last 12 months at the end of the year, well below our financial target. The proceeds from the divested EHS division has strengthened our balance sheet. The Board has resolved to allocate SEK 500 million to buy back shares. And the Board will propose a mandate to buy back up to 10% of the shares on May 7, 2026. To increase flexibility for the ongoing buyback program, the Board intends to summon an AGM in March to increase the current buyback program from 5% to 10%. I'm now handing over to Pontus again, who will present our last slides.

Thank you, Magnus. Please switch to Slide 21. 2025 was a formative year for Karnov Group, marked by value creation and strong results. We accelerated organic growth, thanks to sales and adoption of our accurate and reliable AI solutions, captured synergies that strengthened our profitability and optimized our portfolio through value-accretive divestments. Our strategic focus is to uplift customers to our AI solutions and continue to evolve customer value. At the end of Q1, all business units will operate on Karnov's common AI platform curated the trusted local content. Thanks to the common platform. We improved the scalability and shortened time to market. Supported by long-standing customer relationships and reputable proprietary legal content, we are well positioned to expand into the market for AI-based legal workflows in 2026. This will expand the scope of legal work we support, increase customer value and open new scalable revenue streams. Please go to Slide 22. And by this, I'll end our presentation, and we are now ready to take questions. So I'll hand the conference again to our host.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Predrag Savinovic from Carnegie.

I have a few. But let's start with the growth in the North. If you could discuss what the database growth would have been excluding Schultz, because you say 10%, but then Schultz didn't grow. So underlying, is it even higher than what you have written in the report?

Yes. No, excluding the Schultz, the underlying growth is 10%. So, same as last quarter and the quarter before that. So, excluding Schultz, the underlying organic growth is 10%.

Okay. And then Q4 is an important selling season, and we are in mid-February. You should have some good visibility for the renewal season. You mentioned it, Magnus, on the call that it's in line with your expectations. What does this mean for the start of '26? Is it above the closing rate for 2025?

Yes. As you know, we don't give those numbers, but we are pleased with the renewal season. It follows our expectations and the previous trends. We can see continued transition into AI packages. We follow the trends from last year in terms of renewals and churn and so on. So, follows trends that we've seen throughout the year.

All right. And then considering the sale you did of EHS, are there other non-core assets that are for sale to focus even more on the core? I'm thinking primarily, for example, DIBkunnskap and other smaller assets.

Yes. I mean, we continue to -- we continuously look at the portfolio we have. For now, we believe that we have a good core of businesses for the future. But we will continue, of course, to look at smaller assets, and we will continue to look at product rationalizations in both Spain and France, but they are typically of a smaller size and not as significant as, for example, the training business we divested in Spain.

Okay. And then you have been in the AI debate now for the last weeks. I mean, what's mostly debated is AI platforms launching their versions of workflow tools. If you can discuss a little bit about the strategy around yours a little bit in more depth pros and cons compared to what's been discussed in the media, your strategy to go in this market.

Yes. Thank you for the question. It's definitely an interesting topic. And it gives me an opportunity to really point out what we are doing versus the others, so to say. I mean, the discussions we said heard around Anthropic is very much about creating workflow tools to make judges, lawyers more efficient in their ways of working. So that's clearly workflow tools. That's one part. The other part is what we are adding to this industry, and that is the knowledge. I mean, we use those partners of ours. There's 7,000 legal experts all around Europe to create knowledge that we deliver in order for judges, the lawyers, legal counsels, et cetera, et cetera, to make better decisions. On top of that, we use AI to really make it smart to deliver conclusions instead of, sort of, just knowledge. That's something totally different from what has been discussed in the recent week, because that is workflow tools. That is a way to make people more efficient in terms of how they handle a specific matter. Whereas again, we are adding knowledge. So it's local proprietary content, meaning that the national legislation, for example, in Spain, is something far from creating a workflow tool in California. That's an easy thing for me to say, working at Karnov, seeing this every day. But I guess we'll have to come back to this, because people seem to have a difficult time to see the difference. So I can promise you, we will come back to this over and over again, because it's so important that we see this industry from different angles. So we are not a software company. We are a knowledge company. That's the major difference.

And just one final, if you have any view on partnerships, for example, with someone like Kluwer or Harvey, where you offer the data, the research, the knowledge and they offer their workflow tools. Is that something you have considered?

On a very general level, we will, of course, be open to partnerships. But when it comes to the local proprietary content, there is -- we have no plans to license that to anyone else. That is our gold mine. And it goes back to your other question. I mean, this is where we create value for our customers. This is where we create value for our shareholders, and we will hold on to that gold mine. We will utilize that and build on that gold mine. Partnerships in other circumstances, we will, of course, open to discuss. But when it comes to the gold mine, well, it's something we share within the company and with our shareholders.

The next question comes from Simon Jonsson from Berenberg.

I would like to follow up on the organic growth in Region North. But could you explain in more detail why the growth declined compared to Q3?

Yes. So the organic growth was 6% in the quarter. And in that number, we also have, of course, the offline business. But if you look at the online business and if we exclude the Schultz business and we exclude DIB, then we are at the same level, those 10%, I mentioned, as we've seen in Q2 and Q3. So the growth level in the, sort of, core legal business is stable. Then we've had a stable performance by DIB, not reaching those 10%. And of course, we've talked about Schultz. We've been focusing on bringing the Schultz customers into Karnov and not focused on growth in the short term. Now we've moved them into Karnov. We've ended the transition agreement, and we can start working to get those customers onto a growth journey as well.

All right. And talking about DIB, I mean, it's a business that's been growing really well for a number of years, but now slowed down. Why is that? And what do you expect from DIB going into '26?

Yes. It's been growing really nice and growing in parts in 2025 as well. We've expanded into Denmark and Sweden, and that has dampened the growth a bit. We have launched the AI services in DIB during 2025. And we now have a sort of a brighter outlook for 2026 than we've had for the last couple of quarters.

Okay. Very good. And then finally from my end, would it be a little bit more -- would it be possible to be a bit more precise when you will launch the workflow layer in Region North?

Yes, I can expand a bit on that. It's important to describe the service, I would say, as a starting point because then you see the logic and why we have timed the different launches the way we have. At the end of March, there will be a launch in Spain and France of the common AI platform, meaning that for the first time, in the market in Spain and France, they will have the same level of customer benefits as we've had in Denmark and Sweden. So from last week of March, there is a great opportunity. That is a stepping stone in itself to be able to launch the next part, and that is content-driven workflow tools. And by saying that, it's important that it's content driven. because we help people become more efficient, but we add in, of course, our gold mine, the parts that we call the knowledge because then there is a seamless way of working, for example, for a lawyer, not switching between different systems, but having the way they work and having the content in one place. So that is the main thing. And the plan for that is to do that in late June. That is the plan. But it depends on, of course, that we launched the platform according to the plan, and that is the last week of March and then adding on in late June with content-driven workflow parts. So that is the logic. So now we get on the same AI platform, and that makes it possible for us to really expand, build it once and launch on all our markets within a short period of time. So that's the logic behind it.

The next question comes from Thomas Nilsson from Nordea.

I also have an AI-related question. How do you at Karnov view the risk for seat compression going forward? That is if legal professionals were to become more efficient, then perhaps there will be fewer hires. And since you, to a large extent, charged by the seat, do you envision a future where you would raise prices per seat more to account for this possible scenario?

Thanks for the question. I think it's an interesting one. We can make it into a sort of a historic story around this. Because, the same discussion was brought up 20 years ago when Internet then should make our industry much more efficient. Looking in hindsight, we can see that, for example, in France, there are twice as many lawyers today as 20 years ago. It's exact same number in Sweden, twice as many lawyers today compared to 20 years ago and 4x as many paralegals. So, we haven't discussed that 20 years ago, but it turned out that Internet, as a matter of fact, instead demanded even more lawyers, even more employees in this industry. Why? Well, the discussion goes, of course, around the fact that we also created new legal fields by starting to work with Internet. Will it be the same with AI? Well, no one knows, of course. But you could say that we will definitely also create new legal fields, thanks, well because of -- thanks all, because of AI. So it's difficult to predict. Coming back more specifically to your question, if we are able to make our customers more efficient and thereby, as you said, alluded to less licenses, well, as long as we are making our customers more efficient, there will definitely be an opportunity for us also to have a fair share of that efficiency gain. That is the plan. So, the short answer from us is yes.

[Operator Instructions] There are no more phone questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions or closing comments.

Okay. So a question from the audience to Pontus. Can you comment a bit on the monetization plan for the workplace tools that are to be launched in 2026? Is it seat-based with subscription?

Thank you for that question as well. I mean, this is a deeply interesting opportunity for us. We can see that, that part of the industry is growing faster than the traditional legal information solution part of our business. We are currently working with leading international experts how to price and package this. It wouldn't be a surprise to me if we were ending up with proceeds, but let me come back to that because we are currently analyzing that with the best of experts. So, I think, it's a deeply interesting question, and we see such a great opportunity in that.

Thank you, Pontus. And then a question to Magnus from the audience, and that is you mentioned that you have completed the integration of Schultz 6 months ahead of plan. How will this affect your quarterly costs and regional going forward?

Yes. So we've seen -- we ended the TSA by the end of 2025. And the business case that we presented at the time of the acquisition still holds true. And then, we talked about SEK 80 million in revenues and about SEK 50 million in EBITDA. And that business plan now can, sort of, materialize in 2026.

Thank you. No more questions from the audience.

Okay. Thank you, Erik. So thank you, everyone, for listening and for your questions. We will disclose our Q1 report on the 6th of May, and we hope to hear from you then, of course, if not earlier. Thank you, and have a nice day.