KEFI Gold and Copper Plc (KEFI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
April 8, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the KEFI Gold and Copper Plc investor presentation. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, I would like to submit the following part. And if you'd give that your kind attention, I'm sure the company would be most grateful. And now I would like to hand over to Founder and Executive Chair, Harry Anagnostaras-Adams. Good afternoon, sir.
Aristidis Anagnostaras-Adams
executiveGood afternoon, everybody. Thank you very much for making the effort to join. I'm not sure how many there are, but I was led to believe that it looked like it might be a couple hundred people. So I do appreciate everyone putting aside the time. What I had in mind this afternoon is to actually walk you through the PowerPoint, over the first 20 minutes or so, because I think it really is more important than just a quarterly report. In my view, what we're dealing with here is a company that's changed from having a headwind to having a tailwind. And I'd have to say that it completely changes the way in which we can move and the pace at which we can move and therefore, treating everybody as an owner, as a partner. I think it's important to explain that carefully rather than just treat it as a quarterly report or quarterly Q&A. Also, the second thing I might say is that we did receive or was given by the organizers here 20 or 30 questions that had been submitted up until yesterday and I did sit down last night and answered them all. And therefore, I hope you don't mind, but we're just going to publish the Q&A later instead of taking up time talking about questions that I have already written down answers for, that can be released after the webinar. So what I'll do is make a presentation and answer live questions. And after the webinar, anyone who feels that the question they've submitted in the last few days should be answered, they can look it up and how it's already been answered. So as not to waste time. Hope that makes sense? I'm told that if I press a button here, I'll open up the slide. That's great. And I've got control of the slides. In fact, they seem to have started on Slide 11. I'll flip you back to the first slide. Here we are, Slide 1. Okay. So most of you, I suspect, would know that's actually Tulu Kapi, the hill, that you see in the middle of the screen. And this quiet rural setting is where we, KEFI, first arrived in the country, and it was a very quiet place, 2014. Perhaps an autocratically run country then, but very tightly run. And this place was a very serene rural setting with very peaceful, friendly people. My family spent time moving around the district, enjoying getting to know people as an example of how safe and secure it was in our eyes. The country started changing in 2016, '17 before our eyes and that crazy thing called democracy started to be introduced, so to speak. And the changing of the guard, the changing of norms and rules of governance led to quite some turmoil for us, which really held us back a lot. That peaked last year, and the country is on the front foot again, that war is over. And Tulu Kapi is not quite as calm and peaceful as it was when I first arrived there, but it has lurched back to being something similar, and we can start moving around and doing things. Now what's changed? Today, the company is being pushed and encouraged to go as fast as we can in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia. And we just about can go as fast as we can. In both countries, both are pushing us hard both are such that we can run. Only 4 months ago, we only had one definitely economic project that was in an environment that we wanted to see improve. We had a one horse race. We're a bit stuck in the mud, so to speak. And we had a couple of gonna-be projects over in Saudi Arabia. Today, it's completely different. Today, we have 3 economic development projects definitely. We have 2 countries that are pushing us and creating an environment where we can actually proceed definitely. So we've actually pivoted from a one horse race, and the horse was stuck in the mud, to a three-horse race on 2 different racetracks where there's no mud. So it's a -- I hope you don't mind my metaphors, but I'm just trying to convey the fact this isn't just a quarterly update. The company, all of a sudden, has got a tailwind, 2 tailwinds, not 1 headwind. In Ethiopia, I think you understand what I mean by flipping from a headwind to a tailwind because of the end of the war there and because of the surrounding changing circumstances as a consequence of that. Ethiopia was a top-10 growth country in the world for nearly 20 years running, and I'm sure it will be again now. It lost a couple of years due to COVID and all this strife. And over in Saudi Arabia, we've been there for 14 years. Incredible prospectivity, world-class, walk-up drill targets, but frankly, a terribly frustrating regulatory system. And in hindsight, I'd have to say, that half of those 14 years was probably a waste of time. Hindsight's a wonderful thing. We're dealing with frontier markets here. And they're called frontier markets because they're frontier markets. They haven't settled down into a mature jurisdiction for our industry. And they've been changing around us whilst we've been getting ourselves going. But today, in Saudi Arabia, the regulatory system is not only saying all the right things, but it's actually doing all the right things. We've been granted licenses, we've been promised more and we're being pushed along on the ground in reality, not just words in the major city. So what's the key points on this slide? We now have 2 projects, or we now have 2 countries that have come good for us. We're worth 5p to 7p per share in each of them, if I can put it that way, based on NPV, which is the most commonly relied on measure for trade transactions and fundamental value assessments. So we're now, if you like, much less risky as a company with 2 strong asset bases. And the other thing that this slide really just walked through is a brief description in each particular jurisdiction and touches on the profitability that will emerge. We're building a mid-cap here. This is no longer getting Tulu Kapi going in Ethiopia. This is actually getting a 400,000 ounce gold or gold equivalent producer going over the next few years, of which just under half of that is to our account as KEFI. Completely different situation to last year. What does the share price chart show? It shows that the share price, as it's been for the last year or so, dropped enormously around our announcement of a security incident last September-October, and it hasn't recovered since. And we've recovered. The incident was managed very well, I might say. All our syndicate partners are very pleased with the way it was managed. The community was pleased with the way it was managed. And the perpetrators apologized at the end of it. And the real culprits on the ground who caused it have surrendered but the share price hasn't recovered. So the fact that by the end of the year, the broader situation in Ethiopia had calmed down and Saudi Arabia had actually come alive for us in a real sense hasn't yet been reflected in the way the shares are measured on the exchange. This slide looks a bit sort of confusing, but I'll just explain the points it's trying to convey. One is that the market capping, the red bit is a lot smaller than the company's interest in 3 projects. And all 3 projects are open, and they're going to grow in value as we drill further the deeper or along strike and all 3 of them, and you can see the size of the block at Tulu Kapi is the size of its value today and how we gather size of its value and Jibal Qutman the size of its value for Tulu Kapi. The one thing I would say is that Jibal Qutman, the tiny one there, if the share price reflected averages for the sector, given where Jibal Qutman is and its gestation, I think what you can see there is that Jibal Qutman actually justifies the market value of the company in the stock market that is. And therefore, the smallest project, at least in my eyes, underpins the market cap of the company today. The other thing I would highlight here is that if you take any price effects out of this metal price effects, all these NPVs are based on December '21 metal prices, all of them. So what's happened to the company since 2020 up until the end of '21 is that the -- if you like, the NPV per share has doubled notwithstanding the share issues we've had to make to keep the lights on during civil wars and whatnot. So we have added a lot of value, at least in those 2 years, and we see a lot more value coming down the track as we are allowed to start running harder with these projects. We -- it's very difficult for stockbrokers, analysts to do very in-depth research. They just don't have the time usually. So we commissioned a chap who used to be a senior person in Macquarie Bank, a mining bank in Australia, which obviously has a lot of mining analysis expertise, to spend some weeks doing an in-depth deep dive to research. These are just some of the graphs out of their report. And this report was published the other day. Anyone who really wants to deep dive to truly understand what the hell is going on, I do recommend that report and Edison did a report a few weeks ago. But this one here, I sort of feel like I grew up in Australia. I understand the vernacular, the patents, the systems and this guy sort of got it. I do think because he grew up in that mining world. And any which way you cut it, KEFI is amongst the cheapest entries into this sector for the type of company that it is, a development company. The other thing I would say is the bottom right-hand corner, a graph of grade which shows where -- a reasonable grade. If you strip the underground mines out of that graph, and you just have the open pits on that graph, we'd probably be the highest I'd imagine, we're a high-grade open pit, undergrounds are typically higher grade than open pit. Sorry, wrong button. Group strategy close on the Tulu Kapi financing. I'll elaborate on that in a moment. But we're getting ready to close. A few years ago, when the country started wobbling, and we've lost a few financiers along the way, and we had to replace them. And then we're getting ready to close last year and the country went into a civil war. And we've kept the syndicate together. I know everyone is running around with their lawyers. We've got lawyers coming out of our ears with about a dozen companies involved. Everyone's working hard for closing. So that's our #1 priority today. This project will close. It's going forward. It's easier to lose a week or 2 with -- when you got 12 participants and lawyers and government departments and so on, but we have very few things left to do. And as long as the security situation continues to improve the way it already is. And we've come from a high-risk situation to a relatively low-risk situation, but it needs to keep improving and stay stable. We're away, and we're targeting closing at the end of June. To continue to build value across the portfolio, as I said earlier, we're now a multi-asset company. And we're building a mid-tier what -- in the learning industry vernacular, a mid-tier company producing over 300,000 ounces, new 400,000 ounces equivalent of gold and just under half of that to KEFI's account. This is the roadway to that mid-tier scale and it shows with Tulu Kapi closing a June construction and then into production in '24. Jibal Qutman will be the next one coming along about a year later. Perhaps a bit earlier. We'll see. Hawiah coming along about a year later after that. So we've got now a healthy pipeline of 3 definitely economic projects in 2 definitely pro-mining jurisdictions. The industry is arriving. A lot of them have -- in fact, all of them have been stalled in Ethiopia for all the same reasons that I've referred to. And we're the first large cap off the rank. There are a couple -- there's a smaller project that's got going recently, but their total resources is about 4 months of Tulu Kapi production. So the industry is keen to see Tulu Kapi go. The government's keen, the financiers are keen and the community is keen. We just got to put it all together and get good cracking. And capital markets tend to follow the industry, but the biggest players in the world are there, Barrick and Newmont. Other serious industry players like the Orca guys, the SunPeak guys, they're very, very serious industry players. They're in that part of the world now. And as I say, forerunners go first by definition and other industry players follow and then the general investing public eventually turns up after guys have been in there for a while. And Ethiopia, we're the first-mover of a very large project. In Saudi Arabia, where not quite first-mover, but other than the government company, we're the only people who've been there over a decade on the ground throughout that period. So we've got very strong database, very strong people and we've made 2 discoveries, which is a testament to our performance there. Now I'll just check on how much time I've taken because I don't want to chew up too much time talking. I want to switch to questions. And I've got, let's say, 5 or 10 minutes left. I'll just -- I'd like to highlight a few points.
Operator
operatorYou got plenty of time, Harry. Plenty of time.
Aristidis Anagnostaras-Adams
executiveOkay. Thanks. Okay, the sort of conventional measuring sticks over a gold project. Tulu Kapi is a good one. High-grade open pit; all-in sustaining costs under $1,000; all-up costs, just over $1,000; plenty of margin. At today's gold price, more or less $100 million a year for us, net operating cash flow at $1,600 a year gold price, $70 a year for us, net operating cash flow. Now here's a bit of a busy chart. The simple bit of the chart is Saudi Arabia. We have a partner who owns 70% and we own 30% of a giant pie in Saudi Arabia, which is a hell of a lot better than owning 100% of a small pie or 100% of the pie where you can't get going. In Saudi Arabia, world-class prospectivity, making 2 discoveries of economic deposits on 3 license areas that we've had is testament to the fact that it is -- that's probably a statistic you wouldn't find anywhere else with any other company to have been granted only 2 license areas and to have made 2 major discoveries out of the 3 is a testament to it. Now how do we finance going forward in Saudi Arabia? Well, all the money is in the country really other than our 30% of equity. But on Jibal Qutman, for instance, a $40 million capital bill, let's say, subject to finalizing feasibility studies. But based on preliminary studies, $40 million, 75% project that should be eminently doable and 70% of the equity, our partner, which is a very -- one of the world's wealthiest families, that's not a problem for them. So we, as KEFI would have to, if you like, provide 30% of 25% of $40 million, which is actually about $3 million. What would that give us? Well, if it starts up at 30-odd thousand ounces, we're getting 10,000 ounce interest, $1,000 per ounce margin, $10 million per annum on a $3 million investment. That's -- and all the money is in the country. You don't have to take any capital to the country. And we will have very relatively little to do to arrange all the financing as KEFI. Over in Ethiopia, all the other boxes pertain to there because there you have to bring the capital to the country and you have to work harder to do so because it's another country for everybody. And so starting from the top, the $356 million package, mining contractor to put up the mining fleet and get paid by the tonne, which is quite conventional and a better way to control the contractor's performance, reduces the total to $300 million. Senior debt down the bottom there, $140 million, a bit under 50-50, quite conservative gearing ratio deliberately. So leaving $160 million so left to finance. Of the $160 million, the offtake mining finance or mezzanine finance, $60 million. Now we're down to $100 million of straight equity. Local investors, $38 million, leaving $62 million for KEFI. So KEFI's piece is $62 million. Now of the $62 million, we've already arranged. It's not yet binding. None of these guys will be binding until we sign all together final binding agreements. But everyone, everyone have signed term sheets and most have already got bought approval to pursue it. But they all need to see the final binding documentation with all the final clearances from government, Is dotted and Ts crossed. Otherwise, one does not deploy $356 million to Ethiopia without all the Is dotted and the Ts crossed. So of that $62 million from KEFI, we've arranged $35 million convertibles. Approximately half of it convertible at the price 3 years hence. So it doesn't dilute today and half at the price post closing at a premium to it. So it doesn't dilute today and that leaves $27 million. And that last little footnote down the bottom lays out the $27 million. We have warrants out there, which deliver some of it or should. And we have 2 other sources outlined there, which deliver the rest of it or should. So I think the challenges to a junior listed on AIM to bring a $356 million package to a country in turmoil last year were too big to overcome. That's the simple truth. We didn't know the country would go into that level of turmoil when we first went there, but we stood our ground. We protected the project. We protected the syndicate. We defended the syndicate and preserved it and we're ready to go now. And over in Saudi, it will be dead easy compared to all of that. Now time doesn't permit -- I don't want to spend time just talking I want to answer questions. But the rest -- this one, I think, is fairly straightforward on the sequencing of the development program in Ethiopia. This one shows you the underground, which is still open. And our actual plant as designed of the drawings as shown there in a 3D image. The point of this slide is just to tell you that the resources will get bigger because the last drill holes were still in ore, we haven't got to the end of the ore. That's the point. We don't know whether it will stay at 1.7 million ounces. Well, it won't stay at 1.7 million ounces. It will be bigger. But will it be 2 million ounces or 4 million ounces? We don't know. But an extra 1 million ounces underground would not be a surprise. Saudi, actually, just on that, believe it or not, Saudi as similar geology to Ethiopia, but obviously, there's some things that are quite different to the eye. One is there's no soil or trees in a lot of the country, where is in Ethiopia, there is in a lot of the country, and there are a lot less people compared to Ethiopia. Now up until December, we couldn't really talk about Jibal Qutman because it was stuck. We applied for a mining license in 2015, and it wasn't proceeding, and it was not going to proceed. And we've been advised it will never proceed. So that changed in December only. And about Hawiah, it wasn't definitely economic until we announced the drilling that was completed in December. So Hawiah turned economic because of scale and discovery, and Jibal Qutman turned economic because of regulatory clearance. So we have 2 live ones in Saudi Arabia and up until December, we had none. We have 5 projects that we're focusing on -- in Saudi. 2 of them, we've talked about. 3, we won't until we get licenses granted, and we can do some work. But all 5 have had historical work on them. All 5 are highly prospective. And so there's a -- if you like, a growth pipeline coming down the track in Saudi Arabia. This is the service at crop of Hawiah. There's green stained rocks in -- here and there, which means copper's around. But until we drill, we didn't know whether the ore body was below or whether it had been above and had eroded away over hundreds of millions of years. Anyhow, the geophysics suggested it was below. The drilling confirmed it was below. And then on the next slide, that's the results of the drilling in long section showing -- tabulating the results. I think I'm not sure if I said it earlier, but it's about double the metal content of the open pit at Tulu Kapi. In terms of metal content, it's already doubled Tulu Kapi. That's the grade distribution. We're in Hawiah. It shows you the southernmost section of the ore body so far, is where the highest grade is. And actually going back a step, those darker patches are where we're looking at putting an open pit to take out the material more quickly before going underground into the lighter blues. In December, we were granted the license down the road called Al Godeyer, or 2 licenses and the team hit it running. Very excited because everyone really felt strongly that it was going to be another Hawiah, and it's turning out to be. The geophysics, the trenching, the drilling are all indicating that it indeed is another Hawiah. Jibal Qutman, what's the best word, jump through that. This section here, this plan -- sorry, this schematic map, the stars are where we've discovered open pittable deposits. So it's a string of small open pits. And the string will include more open pits and there's mineralization and depth we haven't drilled yet, but we just focused on more closer to the surface material to run out some numbers on a quick start-up operation, which is what I've discussed a bit earlier. The resource statement there. What else would be just touch on. The Board, Head of Mine Finance, one of Africa's largest banks, he was the head there, Mark Tyler. Norman was the Ambassador to Ethiopia. Rich did run Gold Fields South Africa. So a strong Board for this mission. John always been financing the mining sector. And I've been in the mining sector most of my life, mainly in Australia. Very strong head office. People overseeing the operations, and we have a managing director in each country, always have had, full time for each joint venture company supported by these people. This is just the NPVs per project. The structure in Saudi Arabia. I'm sorry, I'm skipping, but I'd like to get on to questions, and the development plan for Jibal Qutman. That's a very quick run through.
Operator
operatorHarry, that's absolutely perfect. And thank you very much indeed for your presentation this afternoon. [Operator Instructions] But just while Harry takes a few moments to review those questions submitted already, I would like to remind you that a recording of this presentation along with the copy of the slides and the published Q&A can be accessed via your investor dashboard. Harry, firstly, thank you very much indeed for taking time to provide answers to all those questions that were presubmitted ahead of today's event. And as you kindly mentioned, we will publish all those responses to investors after today's presentation. But perhaps while doing so, Harry, if I could please ask you just to open up that Q&A tab. And as you can see, we've received a number of questions throughout today's presentation, and thank you to all investors for submitting their questions. If I could please just ask you where it's appropriate to do so to read out those questions and give a response and then I'll pick up from you at the end.
Aristidis Anagnostaras-Adams
executiveAll right. First one, the question is about a page long. I'll just try to glean the question. Bear with me, please. Security situation has been stable for months now, but still being used maybe as a delaying tactic. Okay. What can you do to assure shareholders that you're not using it as a delaying tactic? Why can't you your finance quicker? Why can't you close in weeks? Well, let me just explain. If you live in Ethiopia and you have children and there was a war going on a few months ago, would you send your children on a holiday to Tulu Kapi today? Or would you ask around and make sure it's safe to do so? Well, I think we all know the answer to that question. Then if you're a Director of a company, who can invest in any one of 200 countries in the world or will lend money to any one of 200 countries in the world, would you send your money or hundreds of millions of dollars to Tulu Kapi 2 or 3 months after the end of the war? Or would you ask a security expert to independently review it for a few months to make sure things are happening properly? And I think we know the answer to that question. If you're a contractor and you're asked to send tens of your experts from Australia or South Africa to work and build a mine, would you want to wait a few months to let it demonstrate itself? I think we know the answer to that question. I'm not trying to be arrogant here, but I'm just saying that you -- listen, the frustration and the desire to get cracking is palpable in the company. I just want you to be rest assured that the team have no interest in taking longer than they need to. But we are responsible people. And so we will start activities on the ground, and we have started activities on the ground, and we do bring independent experts to monitor and assess and report monthly. And then when we've demonstrated that things can happen safely, and not just 3 weeks of it or 2 months of it, but several months of actually doing things on the ground and building, clearing lands and building starter homes and paying out money without it being stolen by anybody or anything like that, that's what we have to do, and that's what we're doing. And I think it's perfectly normal. It's not an excuse. I'm not making stuff up. It's just perfectly normal, responsible management. And the fact that we preserve the syndicate's interest in the country when they could have said, listen, forget about it will come back next year or the year after, that was our achievement up until Christmas. And now we have to do what you're saying, and that is to close and get going. But I do think it's perfectly reasonable for anyone who wants to deploy hundreds of people and hundreds of millions of dollars to want to make sure before they do so. Well, the other thing I should say, by the way, is the government does have to sign off a whole bunch of things. Absolutely, clearly. No, if, buts, or maybes. No, we'll sort that out next month. It has to be signed off or the money won't flow. And we're working very hard with the government. We've got government officers working in our offices as we speak to do these things. And that has to be done. Money won't get released until everything is done. And as I said, June is the time. Private investors are receiving detailed updates on 3 projects. It's sometimes difficult to easily equate detail. In very simplicity terms, what are your views of percentage increase expected on current share price? Well, I think the -- that -- those charts that I showed you answer that question. Like all it's saying is that this type of company around the world, pardon me, usually trades at much higher numbers in a share price terms, vis-à-vis, its underlying value. And those graphs cut underlying value in various different ways to show you alternative basis. And in my language, the most important one is NPV. It is to me. Others might prefer another measure. But typically, they'll trade at a bit over NPV when they get into production because NPVs only measure bankable reserves usually. And there's usually other material that you'll mine as well. And so between now and whatever the share price today, I know it's gone up a little bit the last few days, but if it's at 1p and those graphs show you, it should be 10 or 15x that, then over the next few years as we come into production, it should be 10p or 15p. And there's various measures there. Now that analyst on Monday who published the REO report, that analyst took into account future dilution, took into account all that I said and crunched the numbers in their own way, has been doing it all their lives on mining stocks and that analyst came up with 8.8p. So well, that analyst is effectively saying is that over the next 2, 3 years, whatever it's measuring, the stock should go from where it is now to now 9p or 10p in that effort slightly over NPV after dilution. That's my summary of it anyway. Next question is I have been in KEFI over 8 years. Why do you think the share price is where it is today? Because we didn't achieve what we felt we'd achieve when we'd achieve it. This is frontier markets. And by definition, frontier markets means that they're not predictable markets. And I openly admit, hand on heart, I had no idea Ethiopia would play up and change the way it did when I went there in 2014 -- or 2013. And I stayed on the ground. I've been there half of the last 7 years to support the team because the country was changing before our eyes. That's why the share price is low because we weren't able to achieve what we wanted to, when we wanted to. And this is the first time in that period that the country apart from the first 2 years after we'd arrived, and we weren't really ready to start, this is the first time that the country's giving us a tailwind. That's it. I'm not making excuses. It's the truth. Could you put some meat on the bullet point in the 1st of April RNS that the Ministry of Mines formally requested to allow recommencement of exploration? Yes. Well, we've asked them. And there's been -- a couple of things have happened about our exploration ground. We have today 3 development projects in 2 countries, as I've said. And all the numbers that I've quoted are all to do with those projects. I'm ignoring, if you like, what may or may not emerge in these exploration areas. So every number I've quoted, NPVs and so on, and those graphs are only to do with those development projects. But we do have a lot of exploration ground mainly in Saudi Arabia. And where we know there are a couple of historically productive projects in some of those exploration areas. But we also want to get going in Ethiopia on some exploration, and we've offered to start doing some work sooner rather than later if we're allowed to, that's all. And the authorities are considering it. There's been -- there's always some negotiation with the authorities. The authorities there want us to get going on the development and they've been using these exploration areas as a bargaining stick, unfortunately. And we said, listen, if you want us to get going, we'll get going on that as well. Obviously, the main job for everybody are the development assets. So I hope that answers that question. Great update. Thank you. Can you confirm -- but if need be, we would raise money in the market of our debt to keep 30%. But our policy is definitely not to go below 30%. So that's correct. We wouldn't -- you couldn't borrow to keep 30%. It's equity risk capital really at this stage. When we're in production, with cash flow it will be a little different matter. But yes, we don't want to go below 30% of Saudi. Thanks. Management hold a lot of equity. How optimistic are you? Well, to be honest, people who I've met recently have said, it's the first time I've seen you smile in years, Harry. But I'm just -- I like to think I'm a pretty readable person in that I don't conceal, so to speak. And frankly, we were under siege last year. And when I first landed in Tulu Kapi, it was incredibly peaceful, easier to tackle assignment. And within 2 years, as the country started changing before our eyes, and last year's situation in the country where I lived it with the team there really was very challenging, and we were seriously under siege. So today, to feel that we have 3 live projects, all economic and that we have a tailwind is just a completely different scene. It's just a breath of fresh air, to be honest. So it's easy to smile now. When you have successfully delivered finance, would you be able to take time to visit the U.K. and meet shareholders for a celebratory drink? Yes, I definitely. Has any initial work around evaluation work taken place with Al Godeyer? More than that. We've announced some early results, and we're drilling it already. It is another Hawiah. Don't know whether it's a quarter or 3x bigger. I don't know, but it's another Hawiah. What company is doing the independent security assessment? When will that be completed? It's called Constellis, security for multinational. Quite large. And I think as I've said, they need to observe peaceful uninterrupted, undisturbed, happy, smiling faces, working productively for several months. If everything's calm during several months, then that's fine. If there's a blip, they'll say, let's look at it for an extra 3 weeks or whatever. So I can't guarantee the country's condition. But what I can say is that the war's finished, the community is absolutely boosting for this to go forward. The church is involved with us, wants to support. And even the bad guys who conducted a kidnapping on us last year, I think I said earlier, they admitted it was a mistake. They asked us not to tell anybody who it was. They were embarrassed and the actual culprit surrendered. So all the signs are positive but it will be an objective assessment by Constellis. And I'm very optimistic, but an objective assessment is an objective assessment. On the scale of 1 to 10, what are the chances of any one of the investors pulling out before June, if there's no binding contract? Well, please understand that all these people have invested a lot of time and money. They're not doing this work because they don't want to proceed. And put yourself in their shoes. Why would they keep investing time and money in a country that went through such turmoil last year? And you can answer the questions for yourself. They, obviously, think the project is robust. They, obviously, think the company is managing it reasonably. They, obviously, think the country will come good and that the opportunities down the track justify the effort. So they're all considerate people. These are all international companies who operate in other countries, and they don't have to be there. When we've lost a syndicate member in years gone by, we replaced them. And if we lose one now, we do 1 or 2 things or both. We replace them, like we have in the past, and we have other people around, or we would flex the syndicate. We would -- we'll move around the syndicate and say, you take an extra $10 million, you take an extra $3 million, you take an -- or whatever. There's a flex within the syndicate. It's one of the reasons we have so many parties so that you can recalibrate around anyone who plays up. So there's a method in the madness, if you like. So I think we're okay. The cost of energy tools materials have rocketed recently. Is there a plan B if contractors say much higher cost? Good question, excellent question on the money question. We repriced everything last August, ready for closing last year. So if you like, we're only whatever that is, 5 months, 6 months out of touch. And when they price, they lock in for several months. Pricing now means they're locked in for several months. Pricing in August means they are locked in for several months so that we can then do the paperwork. So all our numbers reflect August pricing. Any change in numbers will reflect changes from August that had anticipated what might happen till -- towards the end of the year '21, that would pick up anything since then. Ukraine has thrown some pricing out of kilter in the world. So we have to see. We're getting it all repriced this month. But it's the same question that we just had realistically. There's enough flex within it. The gearing is down under 50-50. There's enough flex within each of these groups to sort of recalibrate. So I think the fundamental thing is that if KEFI were financing $356 million, well, we would have know it and we couldn't do it. But because it's a syndicate of financing, we flex within the syndicate. And already, we had updated the numbers to only a few months ago, the risk isn't really significant today. If you believe TK will get over the line now, why can't you put some of your own cash in rather than options? Well, I don't know how wealthy whoever the questioner is thinks I am but I have certainly invested more in KEFI than I've been paid by KEFI. My first 8 years as Chairman, I didn't get paid a dollar by KEFI. And since then, I've invested more than I've ever been paid by KEFI. So I believe I've put my money where my mouth is. No sincerity. And the management team, as a whole, has invested enough to own 12% of the company. So I think you'll find that the management team here is -- has a lot of skin in the game. And we're living and breathing it. We're the guys there under siege, suffering kidnappings and suffering civil wars and managing all through that and now coming out the other side, we've got every incentive to make this happen. So asking me to put in some more money, I don't think is quite recognizing what we've already done to demonstrate our commitment. Based on recent and current conversations, news, how confident are you clearly about financing? Give it a score out of 10? I mean, the financing will happen 10 out of 10. I can't guarantee security will behave itself every week between now and then. So I think it could easily slip a week or 3, but it's definitely going to happen. There's no doubt in my mind. When you say a couple of months of monitoring by Constellis, when did this start? Or has it started? It's -- they've done their first report. Didn't get -- we didn't get a 10 out of 10, but we're on the right track. Three -- sorry, in what way will Ethiopia paid back the $60 million or $70 million, which Ethiopia spent over the years? I think this is referring to -- given the historical investments, how will it repay the money invested? Well, I think I already said earlier that at today's gold price, KEFI's share of net cash flow is $100 million. So I think the project will provide plenty of return, I think. I would like to thank and congratulate the team on recent progress. It's good -- wonderful to see. Blah, blah, blah. I appreciate. It's not a question. It's a complement or a thank you. You're only seeing me. My job is, in many ways, to shield the team from work that might distract them to allow them to focus on their work. And it really is a solid team in both Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia. Even our head office team, our head office is only 3 people in Cyprus. They work extremely hard. Probably 1/10 of the cost of what we'll be paying if we had an office in London. And they're all very driven people. And please don't think that it's a company run by Harry. I might be the Executive Chairman, but there's some very, very driven hard-working people, and I thank you for paying that compliment to the team. Does KEFI -- so I think when -- got to stay out of the way. Oh no, that's -- does KEFI have plans to expand the resource near term at Tulu, Kapi? As soon as construction starts at Tulu Kapi, one of the first things we'll do is to revise the reserve resource statement without doing any drilling. And what I mean by that is that when we did the reserves at Tulu Kapi, we assumed the gold price of $1,100 because we were being conservative and we didn't believe gold would trade below $1,200. It's only traded below -- as low as $1,200, 5% of the time in the last decade, and we believe it will trade closer to around $2,000 for the next decade. But nevertheless, to design the mine, we assumed $1,100. I think in hindsight, that $1,100 has turned out to be too conservative. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. So the first thing we'll do is we'll probably rerun it at whatever we decide. It may be $1,500. And that off itself will lead to some design changes with a bit more material coming into our production profile. It wouldn't be too hard to tweak the plant up by 5% or 10%, but we'll look at that as well. So there's some tweaking to do because with the passage of time, some of our assumptions, when we set up our banker's cases, were a bit too conservative. At the same time, we'll start doing some drilling underground, as is being alluded to, not because we want to report bigger resources per se. But because what we really want to do is bring the underground on by year 3 of the open pit. That would be a sensible operational plan. So that the 2 are supporting each other. The high-grade underground and the open pit supporting each other to have a 10-, 12-, 15-year mine life of the 2 combined rather than an open pit followed by an underground. That would be a healthier operation. So yes, a long answer, but I also wanted to point out to you that there's some things we'll do just from the desktop once we start construction. I think I might have got to the end of the questions.
Operator
operatorHarry, that's great. Thank you very much, indeed, for addressing all of those questions that have come through today. And of course, we will publish all those responses on the Investor meet company platform where it's appropriate to do so. And ladies and gentlemen, you will be notified by email when these are ready for your review. Harry, perhaps we'll be redirecting investors to provide you their feedback, which I know is particularly important to yourself and the company. Can I please just ask you for a few closing comments to wrap up with. Thank you.
Aristidis Anagnostaras-Adams
executiveWell, as I said at the beginning, this isn't just a quarterly update. It's more important and treating you all as my partners. If we're all sitting around together here chatting, face-to-face, I'd say it's completely different to what it was in November. We had 1 project under stress and 2 maybe projects. Now we've got 3 projects, economic and moving forward. Completely different. The numbers tell you that there's a lot of upside to be gained. And the most important thing that's changed is that dealing in frontier markets can knock you backwards as it has for years. But when it swings the other way, it can knock you forwards, which is hopefully what's happening now. The concerns around, can you get going in May? Can you get going in June, and all this sort of stuff? If you're really -- and I don't say this lightheartedly or flippantly, if you're really concerned about whether you can make 10% on this stock or 20% on this stock in the next month or 2 or if something might be held up by a week or 2, I strongly recommend that you don't invest in frontier markets, explorer, developers because they'll drive you crazy. That's the truth. But if you're really after trying to make 10%, 20%, 30% baggers or whatever, by picking people you think are being honest and are trustworthy and determined and have the tenacity to sort of stay the course, then in the words of the people who published their report on Monday, this is your cheapest entry that he's aware of. And I think it's a great entry point and the timing for entry, it couldn't be better, in my view. Will some local bandit play up on us next month? Sure. But I mean, these companies are involved in the syndicate, they operate in much risky jurisdictions elsewhere. The experts from Constellis openly say that Ethiopia is nowhere near as troublesome and risky as Somalia or parts of Burkina Faso or the DRC but the thing that's through everybody was that it changed. It was a terribly calm, peaceful place. Top 10 growth country for 20 years running. And then it changed. And that's completely through everybody. Well, now it's going back to what it was before and it's doing so very, very quickly. I've got -- I can see it before my eyes and it's happening very quickly. So I wouldn't worry too much about that side. That's it from me in terms of closing comments. I hope you can sort of feel that the team is feeling some elation now that we can get cracking. And well, the best to all of you. Thank you.
Operator
operatorHarry, that's great. Thank you very much indeed for taking the time to update investors today. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as you'll now be automatically redirected for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the management team can better understand your views and expectations. It's going to take a few moments to complete and I'm sure we'll be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of KEFI Gold and Copper Plc, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That now concludes today's session. So good afternoon to you all.
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