Kellanova (K) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
June 21, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning, and welcome to the Kellogg Company's conference call to announce its latest portfolio transformation. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for the Kellogg Company. Mr. Renwick, you may begin your conference call.
John Renwick
executiveThank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today, especially on such short notice. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman and CEO; and Amit Banati, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we start, Slide #2 shows our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures disclaimers. As you are aware, certain statements made today, such as projections for Kellogg Company's future performance, are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the second slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings. And now I'll turn it over to Steve.
Steven Cahillane
executiveThanks, John, and good morning, everyone. We are very excited to be announcing today the spin-off of 2 of our businesses, an action which will create 3 stronger independent companies. Slide #4 shows that this move is consistent with our Deploy for Balanced Growth strategy and is the latest in what has been a series of significant actions we've taken in recent years to transform our portfolio. We acquired Pringles in 2012, turned it into a global powerhouse brand and added about $1 billion of net sales to that brand since we acquired it. We made a big bet on Africa, filling in geographic gaps with acquisitions and partnerships. These have given us a stronghold in an emerging market that is poised for exceptional growth for a long time. We made the bold move of exiting direct store delivery in our U.S. Snacks business, a move that swapped out declining ROI overhead in favor of brand building behind world-class brands like Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Treats. And you've seen the tremendous growth those brands have realized ever since. We also acquired RXBAR, giving us a strong entry into performance-based snacks, and we also divested 4 businesses: cookies, fruit snacks, pie crusts and ice cream cones, that we felt were not core businesses for us. And along the way, we've shifted resources into growth businesses, notably snacks and emerging markets. The result is a more growth-oriented portfolio that has produced strong growth. The reshape portfolio is working, but we believe it could work even better, particularly if our U.S. and Canada cereal and plant-based businesses were independent. Hence, our announcement to spin off those 2 businesses. Our shareowners will own a trio of strong independent companies with iconic brands, attractive economics and improved outlooks. These are shown on Slide #5. We'll come back to you later with their new names, but for now, we'll refer to them with generic temporary names. Global Snacking Co., with about $11.4 billion in net sales, will be a leading company in global snacking, international cereal and noodles and North America frozen breakfast with iconic world-class brands and strong underlying growth momentum and profitability. North America Cereal Co., with about $2.4 billion in annual net sales, will be a leading cereal company in the U.S., Canada and the Caribbean with a portfolio of iconic world-class brands and compelling opportunities for investment and improved profit growth. And Plant Co., which generates annual net sales of about $340 million, is a leading profitable pure-play plant-based foods company anchored by the Morningstar Farms brand with significant opportunity to capitalize on strong long-term category prospects by investing further in North America penetration and future international expansion. The rationale for this separation is very compelling, and it is summarized on Slide #6. Each of the 3 companies is, from day 1, a scaled business with strong brands and category shares, a solid supply chain and financial flexibility. As independent companies, all 3 will be better positioned to do the following: focus on their distinct strategic priorities with the financial targets that best fit their own markets and opportunities; execute with increased agility and operational flexibility, enabling more focused allocation of capital and resources in a manner consistent with those strategic priorities; realize improved outlooks for profitable growth and shape distinctive corporate cultures rooted in our strong Kellogg Company values and rewarding career paths for employees of each company. Let's look more closely at each of these 3 companies. We'll start with Global Snacking Co., which represents roughly 80% of the current Kellogg Company sales. In effect, this includes the remainder of our North America region after spinning off cereal and plant-based foods. It also includes our existing international regions, which remain almost completely intact. It remains a big scale business with well over $11 billion in annual sales and with a portfolio that will be more profitable and more shaped to our growth than it is today. Slide #8 shows what the Global Snacking Co. portfolio will look like from a category standpoint. Based on 2021 data, nearly 60% of its net sales will come from global snacks, participating in growing categories and led by iconic world-class brands, including Pringles, Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts, Rice Krispies Treats, Nutri-Grain and RXBAR, among others. Over 2020 and 2021, this portion of the business grew net sales organically at a mid-single-digit CAGR. Less than 1/4 of its net sales will come from cereal and international markets featuring world-class brands such as Kellogg's Frosties or Zucaritas, Special K, Tresor or Krave, Coco Pops and Crunchy Nut, among others. Over 2020 and 2021, this portion of the business grew net sales organically at a mid-single-digit CAGR as well. By remaining with Global Snacking Co., this international cereal business provides scale, continuity and growth for the Europe, Latin America and EMEA regions. The next largest portion of the portfolio represents about 10% of sales and is comprised principally of our rapidly growing noodles business in Africa. This business grew net sales organically at a very strong double-digit CAGR during 2020 and 2021. And finally, there is our frozen breakfast business, representing less than 10% of sales and led by the world-class Eggo brand. This business grew net sales organically at a low single-digit CAGR during 2020 and 2021, even despite capacity constraints. Slide #9 shows how this portfolio is geared toward growth geographically as well. Using 2021 data, North America will represent less than half of Global Snacking Co.'s net sales, and its portfolio grew net sales organically at a mid-single-digit rate in this region across 2020 and 2021, led by snacks. And to the right, you can see the in-market momentum of the world-class brands in the U.S., brands that make up about 3/4 of Global Snacking Co.'s North American net sales. More than 20% of Global Snacking Co. sales will come from Europe, where over the past 2 years, we have generated an organic net sales CAGR in the mid-single digits, with growth in both snacks and cereal. And about 30% of sales will come from fast-growing emerging markets in Latin America and Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa or EMEA. Over the same time period, our organic net sales grew at a compound annual rate in the double digits for EMEA and in the high single digits for Latin America. Put it all together and Global Snacking Co. grew organic net sales at a high single-digit CAGR during the 2-year 2020, 2021 period, along with expansion in its operating profit margin. Slide #10 offers some insight into what to expect from Global Snacking Co. Building on its track record of sales and profit growth and leveraging its portfolio of world-class brands, strong positions in attractive categories and geographic diversification, this will be a higher growth company than today's Kellogg Company. Net sales growth will be aided by more focused resources and attention to brand-building, innovation and international expansion of world-class brands and to building scale in emerging markets. Profit margins are expected to expand over time, driven by operating leverage, revenue growth management, productivity and increasing emerging market scale. From a balance sheet perspective, we are committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit rating for Global Snacking Co. after the separations, giving us good financial flexibility. And we are committed to paying an attractive dividend in line with our peer group. In sum, it will be plain to see that Global Snacking Co. is a higher-growth, higher-margin company with strong financial flexibility. Now let's discuss North America Cereal Co., the first of the 2 businesses that we intend to spin off to shareowners. This business is summarized on Slide #12. This is a $2.4 billion business operating in the U.S., Canada and the Caribbean. Its portfolio is comprised of some of the most beloved and iconic brands in the category, such as Kellogg's, Frosted Flakes, Fruit Loops, Mini-Wheats, Special K, Raisin Bran, Rice Krispies, Corn Flakes, Kashi and Bear Naked. It also has a portfolio that stretches across the category's product segments from taste brands to wellness brands to natural brands. It has been successful for over a century as a pioneer, innovator and leader in ready-to-eat cereal. This is a business with a strong foundation for future performance and growth. Slide #13 shows just a few of the iconic brands in this portfolio. It currently holds a strong #2 position in the U.S., with 5 of the top 11 brands in the category. It also holds the #1 share in the other major North America Cereal Co. markets, Canada and Puerto Rico. You are well aware of the supply disruptions that have pulled down our North America sales and profit recently. Our priority this year has been to restore production and inventory across our SKUs and then to resume our playbook to get back to winning in the marketplace. And we are well on our way with total distribution points and share recovering sequentially. We've already gained back 4 share points since the beginning of this year. This speaks to the importance of these brands in the store, and it demonstrates the strong foundation from which North America Cereal Co. can build as an independent company. Slide #14 takes a look at what we expect from a stand-alone North America Cereal Co. While the focus near term is on this sequential recovery, which will not only improve net sales but also restore profit margins, the prospects for a stand-alone North America Cereal Co. Are even more promising. No longer part of a snacks-dominated portfolio, North America Cereal Co. will be able to focus its resources on strengthening the business through investments in its portfolio, packaging capabilities and productivity. With this enhanced focus, North America Cereal Co. is expected to generate stable net sales over time, consistent with the category's long-term trend with improving profit margins that will drive profit growth, higher cash flow and increased return on invested capital. In addition to better and more reliable in-market and financial performance, North America Cereal Co. will be set up with financial flexibility from a balance sheet perspective and with an attractive dividend. We'll now turn to Plant Co., the North American plant-based foods business that we intend to spin off to shareowners while also looking at other strategic alternatives, including a possible sale. As discussed on Slide #16, this is a $340 million business focused solely on plant-based foods and operating in the United States, Canada and the Caribbean. Founded in the 1970s, the Morningstar Farms brand is a pioneer and leader in this on-trend category with a full portfolio of plant-based offerings across multiple product segments and eating occasions. Kellogg has grown Morningstar Farms steadily since its acquisition over 20 years ago, and the brand has the highest share in household penetration in the frozen veg/vegan components category. Slide #17 shows the in-market performance of Morningstar Farms in recent years. This is clearly a world-class brand, and it is supported by innovative and proprietary processes and technology in a world-class manufacturing network, and it has tremendous long-term growth potential in a category that benefits from rising consumer interest in plant-based foods, both for nutrition needs and environmental reasons. Slide #18 offers some reasons we believe this business will thrive more as a stand-alone company. Plant Co. will be a pure-play on a secular trend in favor of plant-based foods. It is anchored by the world-class Morningstar Farms brand with a long heritage of innovation and a broad portfolio. Already very profitable, this business has the opportunity to take a more aggressive stance toward future growth. By spinning off into its own company, resources that previously may have been diluted by priorities in other Kellogg businesses can now be directed toward these growth opportunities. This may include investing more in brand building to build consumer awareness and increase household penetration. It may include investing more in emerging food technologies, new supply chain capabilities, extended distribution across channels and expansion into international markets. We see this business accelerating its sales and profit growth over time, while an unleveraged balance sheet will give it financial flexibility to pursue investments. Let me now turn it over to Amit, who will walk you through our next steps.
Amit Banati
executiveThanks, Steve. On Slide #20, let me first provide some details about the transaction and the steps required to get there. The proposed spin-offs are intended to result in tax-free distributions of North American Cereal Co. and Plant Co. shares to Kellogg Company shareowners. Shareowners would receive shares in the 2 spin-off entities on a pro rata basis relative to the Kellogg Holdings at a record date for each spin-off. We expect the North America Cereal Co. spin-off may proceed that of Plant Co., with both currently targeted to be completed by the end of 2023. Over the next several months, we will be working to finalize organizational structures and management teams of each of the spin-off companies as well as capital structures and dividends. We will also be completing audited financials of the 3 companies. And of course, the transactions are subject to reviews and final approvals by Kellogg's Board of Directors, relevant tax authorities and the SEC. Slide #21 offers some financial elements to expect from us. We will share details with you along the way, both in our normal quarterly earnings releases as well as on an ongoing basis through a special website, unleashingourpotential.com. Importantly, we'll be very focused on sustaining our good business and financial momentum, taking care to mitigate against any potential disruption. From a financial perspective, we can only share with you some preliminary high-level aspects at this time. We've already discussed our preliminary estimates of how net sales and EBITDA split across these entities in 2021, though they should be considered directional only, as they are preliminary and include a fairly simplistic methodology of allocating center and other shared expenses. We are committed to maintaining an investment-grade rating for Global Snacking Co. after the separations, preserving access to commercial paper. And we will ensure the spin-off companies are equipped with solid balance sheets and return on capital profiles. We expect to maintain our strong dividend in the aggregate, and we will determine later how it splits across the 3 businesses. The company will begin incurring pretax expenses related to executing the transaction and setting up the new companies. To ensure visibility into the ongoing results of the businesses, the company will disclose these upfront costs and exclude them from its adjusted basis results and its external reporting. So at this point, this is what we can share with you. We will keep you apprised of all developments as well as updating you on the performance of each business as we always do. And with that, I'll turn it back to Steve.
Steven Cahillane
executiveThanks, Amit. I think you recognized this news as Kellogg Company taking yet another bold, decisive move to create shareowner value. We already have the company performing very well, and you have seen this in our results. Now from a position of strength and momentum, we're ready to take the next step and further unleash the potential of our portfolio. We'll have much more details to share in the coming months. And now we'll open up the line for questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar of Barclays.
Andrew Lazar
analystSo I guess my question would be, I mean, clearly, a sizable portion of the value-creation opportunity here is how the global snack business will be valued. I guess I'm trying to get a sense of how you balance the decision to include some other pieces like the international cereal, Eggo, Africa noodles obviously for scale and given the growth profile of those businesses versus, I guess, the risk of potentially diluting what otherwise be more of a pure-play global snacking asset.
Steven Cahillane
executiveYes. Thanks, Andrew. I think you hit on it. Scale is very important. And when we look at our international businesses, having the symbiotic relationship between our snacking business and our cereal business is quite important, and they're growth businesses for us as well. So we're very confident that it's the right strategic move to keep those in place. Africa noodles is another terrific business, providing great scale in West Africa through our multipro distributor. And so as we evaluate all these opportunities, scale was one component of it. But what was best for the brands is also another component of it. You mentioned Eggo. And Eggo, we believe, also has international expansion opportunities. So when you think about Cereal Co., think about it as a Canada, U.S., Caribbean business and therefore, wouldn't really have opportunities to expand Eggo internationally. The other thing I'd just like to hit on, when you talk about value creation, there's tremendous value creation in the cereal business as well. And so having a solely focused, dedicated business against U.S., Canadian, Caribbean cereal, we think, is a great value creation opportunity as well. And we think that, as an independent business, has great fortunes in front of us and equally plant-based in that space. So all 3 components, we believe, provide tremendous value-creation opportunities for our share owners. And we like the way that we've apportioned the businesses on an international perspective.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Cody Ross of UBS.
Cody Ross
analystJust real quick, have you guys previewed this transaction with any of the ratings agencies? Just curious how they're going to treat it. I know you said that it's your intention to make the Global Snacking business investment grade. Can you just describe the other 2? Will those be investment grade as well?
Amit Banati
executiveThanks, Cody. We've obviously been in dialogue with the rating agencies. I think as you'd expect, at this stage, given the size of the transaction and the lack of detailed financials, that dialogue is ongoing. I think we're committed to remaining investment grade with access to commercial paper on Global Snacking. And I think the capital structure of the other 2 companies, we will determine closer to the spin. So that's the current thinking.
Cody Ross
analystGot you. And then just last question for me. How long has this been in the works for you guys? How long have you been kicking the tires and really been thinking about this?
Steven Cahillane
executiveSo Cody, I'd say it goes all the way back to when we launched our original Deploy for Growth strategy. One of the important planks of that was shaping a growth portfolio. And so you've seen us do a number of things, even before that strategy 10 years ago, acquiring Pringles, obviously, a fantastic acquisition. But since Deploy for Growth, we've purchased RXBAR. We doubled down in Africa with investments there. We divested the Keebler pie cones, ice cream cone crust business. And so we've constantly been evaluating it. And this has been a part of that, looking hard at the entirety of the portfolio and how the different parts of the portfolio could best be served and could best flourish. And so obviously, during the pandemic, you put a lot of things on pause as you're just making sure that you can keep people safe, keep food flowing through the system, giving back to our communities, but we never stopped exploring value-creation opportunities. And the time is right now, because we've got lots of strength. We feel like our top line has been reliably restored to terrific growth. And this is just the next unlock in that transformation journey and deploying for growth by shaping a growth portfolio, and we're excited about the prospects that this gives us.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.
Kenneth Goldman
analystWondering if you can give us a little bit of a rough sense of how much of a margin opportunity there might be within the domestic cereal business over time? And kind of what do you see as a more normal margin today? I know you provided some numbers, but I assume that's still a little bit deflated just given the strike or the fire. So I just want to get a sense of kind of where you think run rate is on a normal basis and where you think that can get to, just roughly, if possible.
Amit Banati
executiveI think, obviously, the margins that we shared, and we've given you the '21 EBITDA, that is -- and it's preliminary. I think it assumes allocations on a simplistic sales basis across the 3 companies. But I think if you look at that, that has clearly been impacted by the fire and strike in 2021. And I think as we've talked previously, that impact flows through into the first half of this year as well. I think as we get into the second half, that will normalize. And I think as that business builds back -- and like we've talked, right, we've been singularly focused on the recovery of that business. And we're making good progress on that. And so I think you'd expect that margin to start picking back up. I think from a longer-term standpoint, I think the dedicated focus and the investments into capability, into margin growth opportunities, the North America Cereal Co. will have that ability to pursue that and would continue, and we'd expect for that business to continue to drive margins.
Kenneth Goldman
analystOkay. And then quickly, Steve, I do appreciate the value-creation potential. We've certainly seen companies over time split off some growth from some value in different geographies and so forth. I'm just curious, though, and I know you touched on this a little bit, are there certain aspects of the business together that were sort of holding you back? Meaning are there things that you'll be able to do, whether whoever runs each of these companies will be able to do from a strategic or an M&A or an operational standpoint that maybe you couldn't do when it was all part of 1 entity?
Steven Cahillane
executiveYes, Ken, I think that's right. And so if you just look at the cereal business, Cereal will be solely dedicated to winning in cereal in the 3 geographies: the Caribbean, the U.S. and Canada. And we'll not have to compete for resources against the high-growth snacking business. So Frosted Flakes does not have to compete with Pringles for resources. And now an economist might say, well, you could do that without splitting up the companies, but we don't live in a textbook. We live in the real world. And that's just the way it works. And so having the ability to focus first thing in the morning on how am I going to win in cereal and then thinking at the end of the day, what worked and what didn't work in cereal and planning the next day's activities, it's just we see that opportunity to focus solely on the businesses at hand. Same thing for Global Snacking Co. and plant-based. It just has the resource allocation strategy, dedicated and focused. It has your balance sheet, your capital structure, everything focused on how you're going to win in that dedicated category. So we do think that there's going to be unlocks and great opportunities for all 3 businesses because they'll be independent.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Ken Zaslow of Bank of Montreal.
Kenneth Zaslow
analystI'm going to -- let me try and ask Ken's question a little bit differently. What has Kellogg's historical margins been in cereal? And there's 1 competitor out there that we see has about a 20%-plus EBITDA margin. Is there a reason why Kellogg would not be able to achieve that? Would there be something that prevents Kellogg from moving in that direction? And then my follow-up question would be without a management team in place for the cereal, how do you keep everybody motivated in the next year, 1.5 years to progress towards that goal?
Amit Banati
executiveYes. So maybe I'll start with the margins, and then I'll pass it on to Steve. I think like I mentioned, in the near term, the margin has clearly been impacted by the fire and strike, right? And I think as we previously mentioned and as you're seeing today, the impact from a '21 standpoint and from a '22 first half standpoint. And I think we'd expect that to recover in the second half and into '23, as that -- as we restore supply and full commercial activity behind cereal. I think longer term, and I think going back to the previous question on value-creation opportunities, I think margin improvement in the cereal -- in the U.S. cereal business is definitely a value-creation opportunity for that company. And they'll have the capital, resources, focus to go after that margin opportunity.
Steven Cahillane
executiveAnd Ken, great question. How do you keep people engaged during times of transition and change? As exciting as this is, obviously, it creates uncertainty, and we're well aware of that. But we have a very strong change management agenda in place to keep our employees informed, motivated and engaged. Also keep in mind, our international regions stay almost entirely intact, and then splitting the 3 companies creates exciting career opportunities for our folks. So where we have one of -- one thing, we're going to have 3, right? We're going to have 3 heads of communication, 3 IR heads. Those types of opportunities are very exciting for our people. And when we separated our Keebler business, we created exciting opportunities for our people there, and we always -- we will always treat our people fairly with dignity and respect. But this is an exciting time. This is an exciting time for our people. It's additive. It's the next step in our transformation. We're -- as soon as we're done with this call, we've got a global town hall, which I'm excited to talk to all of our people about. So I'm very confident we're going to keep our people engaged, enthused, excited about the business at hand for the next 18 months, but also the opportunities that this presents going forward for all of our people. We're very focused on that.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse.
Robert Moskow
analystI'm just trying to figure out an estimate for dissynergies from the transaction. I know that you're going to provide us with that down the road. But can you just give us some color on what kind of inefficiencies you'd expect this to create in distribution and procurement? We know they need different IR departments, but can you speak a little bit about that?
Amit Banati
executiveYes. So I think on an ongoing basis, there will be dissynergies. I mean, I think our North America business is an integrated business. And so I think as we stand up the 3 companies, you would expect there to be some dissynergies in common areas. I would say that we expect transition services agreements for a couple of years post the split. So if you think about the spin-off timing, we've talked about 18 months for that, transition service agreements running for a couple of years after that. So we've got time to work through the dissynergies. I would also say that we've done a really good job of eliminating the dissynergies and the stranded costs post the Keebler divestiture, and you've seen that flow through in our '21 results. So I think we've done this before. We've got a good experience in doing it, and we've got time to address the dissynergies.
Robert Moskow
analystAnd just so I understand, the TSA agreement, would that be like the spin-offs paying a TSA kind of payment to the Global Snacks business?
Amit Banati
executiveYes, I think so. I think post the spin, right, you'd expect in areas like IT, for example, global shared services that, for a period of time, there would be shared services -- there would be transition agreements for those shared services, even in areas like maybe logistics, maybe distribution centers.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.
David Palmer
analystJust a follow-up on North America cereal. I think it was really -- it was Ken's question I'm following up on. The low double-digit EBITDA margins on a depressed '21 sales is probably a lot worse than your peak levels. Could you speak to maybe where those were? As an example, I'm looking at rough benchmarks, the EBITDA margin for post cereal business, for example, [indiscernible] retail businesses are in the 20s. So I'm just wondering if you could give us a sense about where that business might have been in sort of recent periods, pre-strike and fire and some of the other reconfigurations you've been doing.
Amit Banati
executiveYes. I think -- so firstly, like I said, it has been -- our margins were significantly impacted by the fire and strike, right? And I think it's also important to understand or to -- these are fully allocated. So it includes a share of corporate allocations as well as opposed to potentially, you may have been referring to divisional profitability numbers. These are fully allocated numbers. So there's some -- so that will impact the margins as well. But having said all of that, right, I think from the 21 basis, there is a marginal opportunity in the cereal business.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Alexia Howard of Bernstein.
Alexia Howard
analystCan I ask about the timing of news about this over the next few months? So what are the next milestones during the course of 2022? When do you anticipate the financial breakout and the standard of the extra cost of the synergies and so on, just so that we have an idea of the playbook there.
Amit Banati
executiveYes. So I think -- from a time line standpoint, right, I think we've got to prepare 3 years of audited statements for the spin-out companies. We expect to do that somewhere in the second half of '23. So call it about a year from now, and there's significant work associated with that. I think from a rest of '22 standpoint, we'd be reporting. And obviously, we'd be updating you on the performance of these businesses as part of our earnings calls. But you can expect that for the rest of the year, we'd be continuing to report on a total basis as we have with updates on the performance of each of these businesses. And then I think from a '23 standpoint, we'd probably give guidance on a total basis. And then as we get into '23 and as we have the carve-outs, we'll start sharing the details of each of the specific companies.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman
analystSo just given the length of time between the announcement and when you expect to complete the transaction, I was wondering if you can give us any sense for how you plan to prioritize investment behind the 3 businesses. You mentioned that typically, the snacks business would be a priority over cereal, but if you could give us a sense for how you plan to incentivize the employees and allocate investment over that time frame? That would be helpful.
Steven Cahillane
executiveThanks, Pamela. So I would say it's really business as usual over the course of the next 18 months. And business as usual for us means that the U.S. cereal business, for example, coming out of the fire and strike, we're fully dedicated to bringing that business back, and we've been very successful in doing that and ahead of plan in terms of the production capacity we're getting out of the 4 cereal plants, in terms of the total distribution points that we're building back at store. And in terms of the share, we gained 4 share points since the beginning of the year. So we are determined to continue that momentum and continue driving that forward. And obviously, we've got great momentum in our snacking business, and we've got a good business plan for this year, which we've been performing well against. You saw our first quarter results. We'll have more to report, obviously, on August 3. And then when we get into August 4 -- when we get into next year, we'll talk about exactly what that business plan looks like, but we're very confident in our business. You've heard us say we're going to come out of the pandemic as a stronger company. We believe that, that has happened. The strength of our portfolio and the robustness in our top line is what allows us to make this bold move. And so we're going to run the business, as we've normally run it, as we prepare for the split down the road.
Pamela Kaufman
analystAnd then just a question on how you plan to allocate debt to the businesses? You mentioned that the plant-based company will be debt free. So should we assume -- how should we think about the split of debt across the other 2 businesses?
Amit Banati
executiveYes. I think it's to be determined, right? So we'll give you updates as we get closer to the spin. Like I mentioned earlier, right, we'd expect Global Snacking Co. to continue to remain investment grade with access to commercial paper. I think you can -- you should expect very similar leverage ratios. And then the cereal -- our North American Cereal Co. can carry its share of debt as well, but the specifics are to be determined. And I would say that we would expect to maintain our dividend in aggregate. Again, the specific dividend strategies of each of the companies [indiscernible]. But in aggregate, we would expect the dividend across the 3 entities to be intact and competitive with our peer set.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.
Bryan Spillane
analystSo maybe just the first, to follow up to Pam's question. And Amit, can you give us a sense of where the pension obligations will be allocated, because it's important, I think, in terms of the adjusted leverage and also important part of the enterprise value calculation. So where do the pension obligation sit among these 3 businesses?
Amit Banati
executiveYes. Again, I think in order to flow with the businesses, and so I think each of the businesses would carry their -- the pensions with them. I think our plans are well funded. And so I think it will flow through to the respective balance sheets.
Bryan Spillane
analystBut we can't see that, right? Like we don't...
Amit Banati
executiveYes.
Bryan Spillane
analystYou don't disclose the pension obligations to that level. So can you give us a sense of where -- which is more sort of union heavy in terms of the 3?
Amit Banati
executiveYes. I think those -- we'll share those details as we go along and as we've worked through the carve-outs of the financials, and that will be obviously an inherent part of the carve-out work.
Bryan Spillane
analystOkay. All right. And then just one -- I guess, one 1 other question is we've talked a bit about resources, and each company -- each of the separate companies would have better decision-making or resource allocation. But if there's dissynergies, doesn't that imply that there's less resources available for these businesses, regardless of how they're being allocated. I guess I'm trying to understand just how this actually creates more resources if part of the issue with -- at least with cereal maybe was that -- it was not getting as much resources. So -- are there more resources as a result of this or not?
Steven Cahillane
executiveI think what the point we're making, Bryan, is it's about focused resources, right? Focused and dedicated resources, incentive plans, everything around being directed against the cereal business, on the one hand, Global Snacking Co., on the other hand, in plant-based. So it's a focus of resources. And in terms of the dissynergies, you see we've studied quite a number of carve-outs and spin-offs and so forth. And we're very confident that we'll work through those dissynergies as well. And so -- and the remaining businesses all have terrific scale. So you think about Global Snacking Co. as $11.4 billion business, but North American Cereal Co. at $2.4 billion worth with margin expansion opportunities. So creating more resources through growth, creating more resources through expanding our margins, improving our productivity, these will all be part of the very focused game plans coming out of this.
Bryan Spillane
analystAnd just one last one, if you can indulge. Gotten this question a couple of times this morning. To the extent that you've got a tax-free spin and then maybe potentially some of the spin-cos becoming M&A targets, do you have a sense yet from your advisers when the clock starts in terms of the 2-year window to maintain the tax-free status? Does it start today? Does it start when the spins actually are executed? Or just if you have any -- had that discussion at all with your advisers and can share, that would be helpful.
Amit Banati
executiveYes. I think it will be post the -- once the spins are executed.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.
Jason English
analystA couple of questions. I think so much of the debate is going to revolve around the multiple on Snack Co. And you gave us some growth profile figures the last 2 years. The 2 years -- the last 2 years have been kind of wonky, a little unusual with COVID and now the hyperinflation. Can you give us a longer-dated time frame? Like what does this business grow maybe over the last 5 years? What it looked like pre-COVID on a stand-alone basis?
Steven Cahillane
executiveYes. Off the top of my head, Jason, I don't really have that. But what I can tell you is if you look at back when we exited DSD, that's really been the beginning of the rejuvenation of many of our snack brands, and they've done terrifically well. You're quite right that COVID has made everything wonky. But when you look at the performance post-DSD of our Cheez-It business -- now our Pringles wasn't DSD but allowed us to think about that in a different way. Our Pringles business, our Rice Krispies Treats business, these have all done very, very well. And you look at the last 2 years, and Global Snacking Co. is a high single-digit growth company. And that's attractive no matter what peer set you're looking at. And so when we look at the brands that make up that portion of the portfolio, we're quite confident that it is a terrific portfolio. And going back to the cereal business in North America, we think that there's lots of growing momentum for that business obviously coming out of also what is a very strange comparison because of fire and strike, but business gaining great momentum. And in the future, that will be independent and fully resourced, we think, is a winning strategy.
Jason English
analystFor sure. And I don't think anyone would debate you on the brand argument on Global Snacks, at least as it pertains to brands like Cheez-It, which I particularly have a soft spot for and Pringles. But I do hear skeptics suggest like, "hey, there's a big tail here that's not so high quality." So can you give us more context? Like I see Global Snacks -- like how big is Pringles? Like your hero brands, how big are they as a percentage of this portfolio?
Steven Cahillane
executiveThe only thing I could add there is that those brands that we showed you on the slide are the world-class brands that we outlined. Those will be about 3/4 of the North America portion of the Global Snacking Co. So that gives you kind of a rough idea of those. And then internationally, Pringles will be a very important brand in all 3 regions for snacking. But we don't -- unfortunately, we're not organized this way. So we don't have all that back data for you, Jason. But I do want to get back to your growth rate question. If you look at the last few years individually, you're right, there's some wonkiness in 2020 and 2021. That's why we try to give you a 2-year CAGR. But you've seen consistent growth in Europe, Latin America and EMEA on snacks, led by Pringles. You've seen overall good sales growth in cereal in those 3 regions. And you've seen exceptional growth in noodles and other during those 3 years. So while we don't have the breakout of that new structure going way back, that can give you an idea from an organic net sales growth of each of those subsets. Does that make sense?
Jason English
analystYes. Yes, it makes plenty of sense.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Jonathan Feeney of Consumer Edge.
Jonathan Feeney
analystHistorically, past couple of decades, these kinds of transactions have had a mixed reception at retail. Clearly -- you talked about competing for resources internally with North America in cereal and other places. But from a retailer perspective, sometimes it can be interpreted that this kind of a split up means less resources for a business like that or at least less prioritization from what will be a smaller organization. Have you previewed this change to retail partners? Or do you have any sense internally what that kind of reaction would be? And what steps proactively can you take to position this as you position it to us as positively as possible?
Steven Cahillane
executiveYes. Thanks, Jonathan. We obviously have not previewed this with customers prior to. I've had some interactions early in the day with our customers. And it's an exciting time for us. And I think the fact that the Global -- excuse me, the North American Cereal business is of the scale that it is with the household penetration that it has, the iconic brands it represents, it is important for retailers, absolutely important. And I think we can convince -- we've convinced ourselves that this is absolutely the right thing to do for our cereal business. It's a value-creation opportunity for the entirety of the company, but it is the right thing to do for our cereal business. And I think that will translate well with our customers so that they know that the Kellogg's Cereal business in the United States, Canada and the Caribbean has a dedicated focused management team, dedicated customer teams that have really one objective, and that is to win in cereal with our retail partners. And so the fact that it's got that scale, I think, is very helpful. And then internationally, it remains together. And so no issues there. But we'll be having those conversations over the coming days with our customers. And we will make the commitment that we are absolutely dedicated to the partnerships that we have with them and that we're going to make this winning -- a win-win exercise for them and for us.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.
Stephen Robert Powers
analystFirst, just a couple of financial questions. Just on Bryan Spillane's pension question. I guess my intuition is that the U.S. cereal business would carry the majority of that pension. Is there any reason to think that, that intuition is incorrect? Number one. And number two, over the next 18 months, I understand you're going to be adjusting out some of the costs associated with positioning for this 3-way split. But is there any estimate of the cash costs that you will incur alongside that even until hit the P&L. I'm just -- I mean interested in the incremental cash that we'll have to go to fund this initiative over the next 18 months.
Amit Banati
executiveYes. I think on the pensions, like I said, right, I think it's worth to be done as part of the carve-outs. We'll update you when you have the information. I think the pensions will flow with the businesses and the plants, and each has its own profile, but we'll give you more details as we progress the work through the carve-outs.
Stephen Robert Powers
analystOkay. And then any color on cash?
Amit Banati
executiveOn the cash, again, I think we'll update you as part of our next earnings call and as part of our guidance for cash flow. And we will obviously be incurring costs, but I think I will give you an update on August 4.
Stephen Robert Powers
analystOkay. Cool. And Steve, I guess, this question has been asked a couple of different ways, but -- and I conceptually fully get the idea of enhanced benefits from focus as you go forward. But I guess, are there specific instances you can point to in the recent past where you've not been able to move as quickly as you would have liked to or you've not been able to apply the focus that you would have liked to where you haven't been able to optimally allocate capital? I'm just -- I'm trying to get a better sense of the problem you're trying to solve by doing this at this particular point.
Steven Cahillane
executiveYes, Steve, let me take a stab at that. I wouldn't phrase it as a problem we're trying to solve because again, we've turned the business very successfully back to growth. And obviously, there's been a lot of noise, as Jason pointed out, with COVID and all the other various things. But we're -- our portfolio is hitting its stride right now. And so this is an opportunity to make it even better. But to your question, if you think about just the Morningstar and the environment that it competes in right now has changed fairly dramatically from where it was just a couple of years ago, with players that are coming in very rapidly that are not profitable that are playing a different game, this allows Morningstar Farms to play that different game. Because it's an independent company. It will have its own strategy. And it may be more aggressive in that strategy in the way that expands across channels. The way that it expands internationally, because it won't have the burden of being part of a global corporation where its profit is in our base, right? And so it's very difficult to think about that in a different way. And if you think about the cereal business, again, the opportunities that it creates, and I said this earlier, is it's not a diminution of resources, right? That business, as it grows and as it grows its margin profile, will generate cash and will generate more cash and more profit and will allow it to make investments in areas where, as a global corporation, it would have to compete with a Cheez-It expansion in Brazil. Well, it won't have to do that anymore. And so we believe that will create resources, will create the future opportunities for these businesses. And the strategic imperatives that they face, they'll be able to face with a focused resource plan and a management team that, at this point, is just a little bit different.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Robert Dickerson of Jefferies.
Robert Dickerson
analystJust first question, try to keep it simple. Just in terms of the dividend allocation, I believe you said you maintained kind of current level of dividend is between the companies. Obviously, impressive transactions like this sometimes, right? The higher growth [ base ] might not pay as much and look to reinvest in terms of further acquisitions while more of the "cash co" might pay more of a dividend. I haven't heard anything really touched on, on that side. Is that something that we should be thinking about, just given the potential growth profile of cereal and maybe not as many acquisition opportunities if you were to stay in a vertical? That's the first question.
Amit Banati
executiveYes. I think we'd expect -- like I said, in aggregate, we'd expect the dividend to be similar to where it is right now. I think both companies, Global Snacking Co. as well as North America Cereal Co., the dividends would be attractive and would be competitive with their peer set. And I think the specifics, more details, we'll provide you as we get closer to the spin. But that's the -- that's our thinking right now.
Robert Dickerson
analystAll right. Fair enough. And then just quickly, kind of have to ask, just given you did throw out there potential sale of the plant business at some point in due time, is there anything that would preclude you from selling that business before the actual spin date with the appropriate offer? That's all I have.
Steven Cahillane
executiveYes. No, when we made the announcement, Rob, you saw that we talked about a spin. We're committed to a spin, but we will also evaluate other strategic alternatives, should they present themselves. And that could happen at any time. And so I'd say the clock starts on this call right now, as this has gone public. And we believe that the business is a terrific business with great value. And so that's why we put that out there in terms of optionality.
John Renwick
executiveOperator, I think that's all we have time for, so that we can turn it back to Steve for some closing remarks.
Steven Cahillane
executiveYes. So look, thanks, everybody, for jumping on the call and kind of a last-minute thing. I'm sure you recognize the importance of this announcement today. Mr. Kellogg started this great company 116 years ago today. So the fact that we're making this announcement, we're making this decision, and we're doing it from a position of our choice, right. This was our evaluation, our choice. We're doing it from a position of strength, and we're absolutely excited about it. We think it's the right thing to do for us at absolutely the right time, but it is nothing short of transformational for this great company. And I hope you're as excited as we are. We think the future is very bright for 3 of these companies -- for all 3 of these companies. It is a true value-creation journey that we're embarking on. But I'll close, with the next 18 months, we are going to be dedicated and solely focused to delivering the business day in and day out as we've done. And we can only do that because we've got the greatest employees, who are dedicated to making that happen. And this is a big announcement for all of them today. I'm looking forward to just shortly addressing all of them in a global town hall. So thanks for your interest. We appreciate your time, and we'll talk to you soon.
Operator
operatorThank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a lovely day.
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