Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

[Interpreted] Esteemed shareholders, welcome also on my behalf to K-Kampus. I started as the President and CEO in the beginning of February last year. Next, I will present Kesko's year 2024. All divisions delivered a good result. Key topics in 2024 updated strategy was announced in June and execution is proceeding well in all divisions. Year-end turnaround quarter result in Q4, up for the first time in 8 quarters at the end of last year. Grocery Trade, net sales increased, profit went slightly down. Building and Technical Trade, cycle was historically low, net sales up, thanks to Davidsen acquisition. However, comparable operating profit down. In Car Trade, profitability was at a good level, both net sales and profit down. Kesko expanded operations to Denmark by acquiring Davidsen and announced additional acquisitions, Roslev Trælasthandel, Tømmergaarden and CF Petersen & Søn. New President and CEO and other changes in the Group Management Board. Good performance despite challenging economic cycle. And here, if we look at the last 5 years, we see from the left in 2021, net sales grew by EUR 1 billion. Next year also EUR 500 million. So very strong years, both in Grocery Trade as well as in Building and Technical Trade in a very strong cycle, strong market. Then in 2023, we saw a drop in net sales and last year, a slight increase mostly due to the acquisitions. And this was also mirrored in operating profit in 2021, extremely strong improvement in operating profit also in 2022, historically high at EUR 815 million. And then after that, in Building and Technical Trade, market crashed in all of our markets, and that can be seen in 2023 operating profit. However, in 2024, we did increase our operating margin to 5.5%. And on the right side, our profit guidance for this year, and we estimate our operating profit to improve this year. Then other key figures, Grocery Trade, our largest division, EUR 6 billion plus; Building and Technical Trade, EUR 4.4 billion; and Car Trade, EUR 1.2 billion. Operating profit in Grocery Trade, 6.9% margin and in Building and Technical Trade, 3.9% and Car Trade 5.7%. All of these percentages declined to some degree last year, but we can still say that these compared to our competitors in Finland as well as abroad are on a very good level. As a detail, I would like to mention, perhaps a surprising information for everyone, but from the sales of Kesko from total sales comes from B2B sales; Kespro, Onninen, home and building improvement operators and so on. So the structure of our sales has significantly changed in the last couple of years. Our net sales for group grew to some degree. However, comparable change was minus 2.3%. Then in our Grocery Trade, it rose to by 0.4% in Building and Technical Trade, comparably 6% and in Car Trade, minus 4%. Operating profit for group, EUR 650 million and operating margin, 5.5%. For divisions, in Grocery Trade, almost on the same level as last year, 6.9% in Building and Technical Trade, 3.9%; and Car Trade, 5.7%. And as already mentioned, towards the end of the year, we had a turnaround experience towards growth. Then for our result. Net sales, EUR 11.920 billion, net sales -- operating profit, EUR 579 million and earnings per share comparable EUR 1.11 million (sic) [ EUR 1.11 ]. And cash flow from operating activities on a good level, almost at the same level as last year, around EUR 1 billion. Financial position. Our interest-bearing net debt grew to some degree to EUR 857 million. Interest-bearing net debt to EBITDA, however, still 1.1. So we are still nicely within our frames. Capital expenditure. Main CapEx: Davidsen acquisition, Onnela Logistics Center and store site investments. IT investments, I might highlight in that sense, that is EUR 18 million, a small number for a group the size of Kesko, but I could say that those quite significantly come from costs instead of investments. So Kesko has strongly invested in digitalization and IT in the past as well as will in the future. Expenses up due to the Davidsen acquisition and real estate costs, for example, our personnel cost, EUR 838 million minus Davidsen acquisition, grew by 0.9%. So considering the salary development of last year, one can say that this is a good result. In other expenses, particularly marketing number -- marketing expenses and accounting expenses. Return on capital employed finally ended up at 11.3%. Then we move to Kesko's updated strategy. Kesko's operating environment and megatrends. Interest rates and inflation. Consumer and business confidence, weak. Higher cost of capital, lower construction activity and customer behavior is price driven. These have really characterized our operations in the last couple of years, can still be clearly seen even though interest rates and inflation has come down. One can still say that consumer confidence is on a very low level. Urbanization, migration to growth centers, substantial infra and building debt. This is also going to define the development of Kesko's store site development, what we will be doing in the next few years. But this also creates good opportunities, especially for Building and Technical Trade. Climate change and green transition, energy efficiency and energy infrastructure investments, electric vehicle transition expected to accelerate and increasing sustainability regulation, especially for Onninen, this provides good business opportunities. But like I mentioned, there's going to be a significant amount of new regulation also. Then demographic changes, aging population, the increasing role of senior citizen customers, smaller households, immigration availability of employees. At the moment, the availability of workforce is on a good level, but we are anticipating challenges in that also in coming years. Effortlessness. Convenience is emphasized in consumption habits, whether ready-made meals or express deliveries. Also, the individuality is a trend that is increasing. Digitalization and AI. The need for high-class digital services and fully utilizing AI potential, improving process efficiency as well as more personalized customer experiences. Then when we look at Kesko's growth strategy on one slide, naturally, we have a similar slide of each unit, chains as well as our 3 divisions. Our vision is to be the leading and most attractive trading sector growth company in Northern Europe. Key strategic targets include delivering profitable growth, strengthening our market position in all divisions, in all countries, in all markets, building a focused B2C and B2B business portfolio, meaning that we have decided where we want to operate in towards -- in the B2C markets and where in the B2B markets. Increasing customer value and then competitive advantages. Operational excellence, looking after our customer relationships, being a price leader, availability of goods, good ordering systems are key factors for us. When we succeed in these factors, then we have already competitive advantage. In addition, in Finland, in sports market, in retail markets, in grocery market and car trade, we receive competitive advantages from all of these. We have these 3 businesses, 3 divisions, and we have this good attitude of Let's K! K Code. I believe this is good to keep in mind in the execution of our strategy, how to get good workforce employees to Kesko and also how to retain them. In the Kesko Group Management Board, there have been quite a few changes in 2024. I will now present the Management Board. First of all, we have a new member in the Management Board, Anu Hämäläinen, EVP, Chief Financial Officer; then Matti Mettälä, EVP, Human Resources; Brand and Communications, EVP, Karoliina Partanen; as a new member in the management group, Lasse Luukkainen, EVP, Legal and Sustainability; Grocery Trade President, Ari Akseli; also in a new position in Building and Technical Trade, President, Sami Kiiski; and a new person as well in the management group, Car Trade President, Johanna Ali. I'm very happy and satisfied with this management Board. I'm sure we will manage all our targets with this group. Then in short, about our division strategies. Grocery Trade, we aim to gain market share profitably. We have 3 focus areas: strengthening store-specific business ideas, developing the store site network and improving our price competitiveness. In addition, for Kespro, we will continue our good development. The investments in price and store sites will have a slight effect on Grocery Trade profitability in upcoming years. However, despite the investments, the operating profit development will be stable and profitability clearly above 6% in this strategy period. Executing our plans to strengthen store site network according to plan. Investments will be visible towards the end of the strategy period. In Finland, we will pay attention to migration, and we will focus our investments on growth centers. In the coming years, we will, on average, invest EUR 200 million to EUR 250 million annually in store updates and new stores. Last year, we remodeled 44 stores and opened 15 new stores. This year, 15 new stores will be opened, including a new w K-Citymarket in Lempäälä, Ideapark near Tampere and K-Citymarket Paavola replacing existing store in Lahti, which housed the first Citymarket in Finland in 1971. Then new K-Citymarkets in Haapaniemi, Kuopio and Kivistö, Vantaa in '26, '27 and new K-Citymarkets are also planned for Ritaportti, Oulu and Espoon keskus in '27 and '28, respectively. One could, of course, ask, are we focusing very much on the hypermarkets, but that's good to remember that in 2015, we purchased Suomen Lähikauppa and we got more than 400 local smaller midsized supermarkets into our network. So we are investing in both. In Building and Technical Trade, we are focusing on securing profitability and generating cash flow. In Finland, we have an extremely strong position. Onninen and K-Rauta, clearly the best companies in the market, the largest, the most profitable top customer satisfaction. The market has been weak, but we have, regardless of this, done very well. And when the market goes up, also results will go up. In Sweden and Norway, situation is different. We have acquired tens of companies in the last couple of years. We will focus on stabilizing the business and improving business performance. In Denmark, we will finalize the Davidsen integration and improve our performance through growth. And we are continuously looking for other acquisitions, especially in Sweden, Norway and Denmark as the most important areas in such a way that the long-term strategic target of a 6% to 8% operating margin is still valid. We reached 7.1% in our best year. Last year was 3.9% in a historically low situation, low market. So we have a lot of confidence in this also for the coming years. Denmark has been mentioned as a new country many times. It has -- it's going to be our third largest country. In this image, you can see in the southern -- in southern parts of Denmark, you can see the Davidsen sites and a few up more up in the north. Then Roslev Trælasthandel in the Central Denmark and Tømmergaarden and CF Petersen & Søn in the Copenhagen area. And if everything goes according to plan, these might be included in our numbers early summer. And after that, we are going to be a strong building and home improvement operator in Denmark, probably #2 or #3 in the market. And when the markets start growing again, which has already started in Denmark, we're going to break EUR 1 billion quite quickly in Denmark. Then the biggest construction project in Kesko's history: Onnela Logistics Center in Hyvinkaa will serve both Onninen's technical trade as well as K-Auto's spare parts business. And this will be all in operation starting from Q3 this year and fully in use by the end of 2026. And this will notably improve Onninen's efficiency with an automated storage warehouse. And timing has been great. The project is estimated to come in under the original cost estimate, which was EUR 300 million. Cycle in the building market, in the construction market was fairly low. So this was a good time to implement this. Special attention has been paid to reducing energy consumption and carbon footprint. The site will host, among others, some 100 geothermal wells and solar power plant. Then when I meet investors, whether in Finland or in other countries, the question I always hear, "Have we seen the bottom of the construction market?" That's difficult to anticipate, but this is the image we have used to describe it. Here, you can see the development, retail and B2B sales in the time frame of 5 years per quarters. 2019 was a normal time then during the corona, the pandemic, there was a boom, also a boom in consumer behavior. And then in particular, 2021, everything changed. Professional construction started to increase. There was a strong sales increase. That lasted for about 2 years, and then we came very quickly down to a weak market situation in 2023. Then last summer, according to this image, the bottom has been seen. The minuses are getting smaller and smaller, and we have been coming up towards the 0 level. And what we have seen from January sales, this trend seems to continue. And here, another example, Byggmakker in Norway. This is a very similar chart. The market has acted -- behaved in a very similar manner in all our countries of operations. And now we are approaching a more normal level, especially, of course, towards the end of the year, we believe the construction and building business will have much stronger figures. Car Trade, the chart on the left side -- on the right side, 48% new cars portion -- new cars and 32% used cars and -- which is a growing portion and also in services, 20%, also a growing area. We did not used to have as much used cars, but this has increased, and we will continue as a strong market leader in sports trade as well. Kesko is very successful in sustainability assessment, Dow Jones results in December, Kesko ranked the highest in its industry in Europe for the third year in a row. And in the Global Index, Kesko was the fourth highest. Global 100 results in January, once again, Kesko ranked the highest in its industry on the Global 100 list. Our dividend proposal from the Board of Directors of Kesko is proposed to be paid out in 4 installments, EUR 0.9 and 81% of our earnings per share. Then gaze to the future. Kesko Group's profit guidance for this year, it is given for the year 2025 in comparison with year 2024. Kesko's operating environment is estimated to improve in 2025, but to still remain somewhat challenging. Kesko's comparable operating profit is estimated to improve in 2025, and Kesko estimates that its comparable operating profit in 2025 will amount to EUR 640 million to EUR 740 million. The profit guidance is based on an estimate of a gradually improving economic cycle in all Kesko operating countries. Key uncertainties impacting Kesko's outlook are developments in consumer confidence, investments -- investment appetites as well as geopolitical crises and tensions. Outlook for 2025. In grocery trade, B2C trade and the foodservice market are estimated to remain stable. In 2025, the comparable operating margin for the Grocery Trade division is estimated to stay clearly above 6% despite the investments in price and the store site network in accordance with Kesko's strategy for 2024-2026. In Building and Technical Trade, the cycle is expected to improve in 2025 from the historically low levels. Profitability in the Building and Technical Trade division is estimated to improve on 2024. In Car Trade, the market for new cars is expected to stay at a low level. Demand for used cars and services is estimated to remain good. Profitability for the Car Trade division is estimated to remain at a good level in 2025 despite weak demand for new cars. What can Kesko offer as an investment? Kesko is a stable operator with strong market positions across different countries and businesses, provides good dividend yield for shareholders, performs well in a challenging market, has good potential for profit growth when the market improves. Kesko has a strategy for profitable growth and a good track record in its successful execution and Kesko's long-term sustainability work has been internationally recognized. Dear shareholders, as the President and CEO and a shareholder of Kesko, I am very confident in the future of Kesko. Thank you. [Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]