KeyCorp (KEY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 21, 2026
What were the key takeaways from KeyCorp's July 21, 2026 earnings call?
KeyCorp reported strong second quarter results for 2026, with earnings per share of $0.44, reflecting a 26% year-over-year increase. Revenue grew by 7% year-over-year, driven by robust commercial loan growth and an expanding net interest margin, which reached 2.89%. Management raised full-year guidance for net interest income, revenue, and loan growth, signaling confidence in continued momentum despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
What topics did KeyCorp cover?
- Revenue Growth and Guidance Increase: KeyCorp's revenue grew 7% year-over-year, and management increased full-year revenue guidance to 7%-8% from the previous 7%. This reflects strong business momentum and confidence in client growth, as noted by management stating, "Given our stronger-than-expected business performance, I have even greater confidence in our ability to generate a return on tangible common equity exceeding 15% by the end of 2027."
- Net Interest Margin Expansion: The net interest margin expanded to 2.89%, with expectations to exceed 3% by year-end. Management highlighted that this growth is supported by "several tailwinds that we expect will contribute to accelerated margin expansion in the second half of the year."
- Strong Commercial Loan Growth: Commercial loans increased by $2.1 billion or 3% sequentially, driven by new client acquisitions and deepening existing relationships. Management noted, "Commercial loan pipelines remained strong up 6% from the prior year," indicating sustained demand.
- Share Repurchase Program: KeyCorp repurchased over $340 million of common stock in the quarter and is on track to meet its full-year target of at least $1.3 billion. Management emphasized the importance of returning capital to shareholders while maintaining a strong capital position.
- Investment Banking Performance: Investment banking fees were slightly below expectations, with management acknowledging a miss compared to prior quarters. However, they remain optimistic about future growth, stating, "We expect third quarter investment banking fees to be up 20% plus quarter-over-quarter."
What were KeyCorp's July 21, 2026 results?
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.44 (up 26% YoY, beat by $0.10)
- Revenue: $1.2B (up 7% YoY, inline with expectations)
- Net Interest Margin (NIM): 2.89% (up from 2.87% in Q1, inline)
- Commercial Loans Growth: $2.1B (up 3% sequentially, positive trend)
- Total Deposits: $153B (flat sequentially, inline)
- Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE): expected >15% by end of 2027 (previously targeted 16%-19%, positive outlook)
KeyCorp's strong second quarter performance and raised guidance indicate a positive outlook for the remainder of 2026. The focus on commercial loan growth and wealth management expansion presents solid growth catalysts. However, analysts will be closely monitoring deposit dynamics and investment banking performance as potential risks to the investment thesis.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning, and welcome to KeyCorp Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Megan, and I will be your moderator for today. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the conference over to [ Troy Gates ], KeyCorp's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mo Ramani, our Chief Risk Officer. As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the key.com website. In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures. This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements and those statements speak only as of today, July 21, 2026, and will not be updated. With that, I will turn it over to Chris.
Christopher Gorman
executiveThank you, Troy, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter results reflect strong business momentum and continued progress against our strategic and financial commitments. We reported second quarter earnings of $0.44 per share up 26% year-over-year. Revenue grew 7% year-over-year, and pre-provision net revenue grew 9%. Net interest margin expanded sequentially to 2.89%, and we are on track to meet or exceed 3% by year-end, supported by several tailwinds that we expect will contribute to accelerated margin expansion in the second half of the year. Commercial loan growth remained strong. Period-end C&I loans increased $2.1 billion or 3% sequentially, reflecting continued success in attracting new clients across our markets while concurrently deepening existing relationships. Our deposit franchise continues to perform well in a competitive environment with total deposit costs declining 2 basis points during the quarter. Asset quality remains strong, while nonperforming loans increased modestly during the quarter, reflecting idiosyncratic items. Broader portfolio performance remains stable, tightly managed and consistent with our expectations. Our net charge-off ratio was 42 basis points during the quarter, and our year-to-date charge-offs remain at the low end of our 40 to 45 basis point full year outlook. Given our stronger-than-expected business performance, I have even greater confidence in our ability to generate a return on tangible common equity exceeding 15% by the end of 2027, on our path to achieving our 16% to 19% long-term target. Importantly, we continue to deploy capital in a disciplined manner supporting client growth, investing in the franchise and returning capital to shareholders through ongoing share repurchases. During the quarter, we repurchased more than $340 million of common stock putting us on pace to achieve our full year share repurchase target of at least $1.3 billion. As we continue to repurchase our shares, our strong capital position enables us to concurrently drive organic growth and invest in our business. As an example, during the quarter, we announced an agreement to acquire Clearwater U.K. This transaction represents a strategic extension of our leading middle market advisory franchise and expands our ability to serve M&A clients and prospects internationally. We expect this transaction to close in the second half of 2026. While the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, our momentum continues to be strong. We are seeing healthy client engagement, solid activity levels across our businesses and remain well positioned to perform through a range of potential economic scenarios. We continue to grow clients, in the second quarter, relationship households increased 3% and commercial clients increased 2% from the prior year. Commercial loan pipelines remained strong up 6% from the prior year. Our priority fee-based businesses, investment banking, commercial payments and wealth, [Audio Gap] bankers and scaling embedded banking build momentum. In wealth, assets under management reached another record $74 billion. Since the launch of our mass affluent strategy in 2023, we've added 59,000 households over $4 billion of AUM and nearly $8 billion of total client assets to Key. Wealth remains a significant opportunity for us as we are less than 10% penetrated with respect to our base of currently existing mass affluent households. Overall, we are encouraged by our second quarter performance and the sustained momentum across the business. As a result of our continued favorable [indiscernible], we have increased our full year guidance with respect to net interest income, revenue and loan growth. Our guidance implies substantial positive operating leverage as we expect to grow revenues twice as fast as expenses in 2026. As always, our guide reflects a range of potential interest rate scenarios and assumes markets remain constructive. We enter the second half of the year from a position of strength. The underlying trends across Key remain favorable. We will continue to drive disciplined execution across our franchise. With that, I'll turn it over to Clark. Clark?
Clark Khayat
executiveThanks, Chris. Starting on Slide 4. We reported second quarter earnings per share of $0.44. Revenue was up 7% year-over-year, while expenses [ increased ] by 5%. Tax equivalent net interest income increased 9% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, primarily driven by commercial loan growth portfolio repricing. Noninterest income increased 2% year-over-year. Loan loss provision of $92 million included $115 million or 42 basis points of net charge-offs, a reserve release of $23 million. The net release was driven by improvement in Moody's economic scenarios and a continued remix to higher credit quality relationships, partially offset by a qualitative build to account for increased economic uncertainty. We grew tangible book value per share 6% year-over-year. Moving to the balance sheet on Slide 5. Average loans were up $2.3 billion sequentially. Period-end loans increased by $1.2 billion, driven by C&I growth of $2.1 billion or 3%, partly offset by the ongoing planned runoff of low-yielding consumer loans. Growth was largely from new relationships and broad-based across industries and regions. The largest industry contributors were utilities, power and renewables, real estate and technology. The C&I line utilization decreased 50 basis points sequentially to 31% driven by higher commitments. Turning to Slide 6. Average deposit balances were relatively flat sequentially and year-over-year consistent with historical seasonal trends. Average noninterest-bearing deposits increased 2.3% sequentially, representing 19% of total deposits or 24% when adjusted for our hybrid accounts. As expected, the average deposits for the quarter were consistent with Q1, and we saw end-of-period deposits up versus prior quarter after troughing in May. At the end of June, deposit balances, which pulled the quarter at $153 billion, were temporarily elevated by about $4 billion due to the timing of transaction activity among our relationship clients. Total deposit costs declined 2 basis points sequentially to 1.63%. Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta held steady at 56%. To support our continued strong commercial loan growth, we supplemented funding with short-term borrowings. Given our expectations that client deposits will grow in the second half, we used wholesale funds in the second quarter rather than repricing existing deposit relationships. As a result, total funding costs increased by 1 basis point. We continue to pay close attention to deposit dynamics and will take proactive and strategic actions to manage funding effectively to achieve our goals. We expect to increase average client deposits by more than 2% through year-end. Slide 7 provides drivers of NII and NIM this quarter. Taxable equivalent NII was up 2% and net interest margin increased 2 basis points from the prior quarter to 2.89%. The increase was driven by commercial loan growth, fixed rate asset repricing and an additional day in the quarter. We continue to manage our balance sheet to a fairly neutral interest rate risk position and move through the remainder of 2026. On Slide 8, noninterest income increased 2% year-over-year. Investment banking and debt placement fees were $169 million for the quarter. The first half of 2026 investment banking fees were $366 million, an increase of 4% compared to the same year ago period. As Chris mentioned, our pipelines are at historically elevated levels. Compared to the prior quarter, overall pipelines are up 9% and M&A pipelines are up 7% to a new record. We expect third quarter investment banking fees to be up 20% plus quarter-over-quarter and remain confident in delivering mid-single-digit investment banking fee growth for the year. Trust and investment services income grew 9% year-over-year, reflecting higher market values and assets under management reached a new record high of $74 billion. Service charges on deposit accounts and corporate services fees each increased by 5% year-over-year. The increase in service charges were driven by growth in commercial payments, while corporate services income was driven by higher loan commitment fees. Commercial mortgage servicing fees were $49 million, down $21 million year-over-year, largely driven by lower deposit placement fees and special servicing fees. At quarter end, we [indiscernible] special service earned approximately $735 billion of commercial real estate loans, of which about $270 billion in special servicing. Active special servicing third-party assets were flat sequentially at $10 billion, about half of which is office. We continue to expect commercial mortgage servicing fees to run about $50 million to $60 million per quarter for the remainder of the year. On Slide 9, second quarter noninterest expenses were $1.2 billion, an increase of 3% sequentially and 5% compared to the year ago quarter. The increase was driven by higher personnel expenses related to the investments in frontline bankers, impact of Key's higher stock price on incentive compensation as well as higher benefits costs. Sequentially, expenses increased due to higher incentive compensation, professional fees and marketing expenses as well as an additional day in the quarter. Expenses are expected to modestly tick up through the second half of the year reflecting our ongoing investments in people and technology and incentive compensation associated with expected seasonally higher fees. We continue to expect to be within our full year expense growth guide of 3% to 4%. Turning to credit. Net charge-offs were $115 million or an annualized 42 basis points of average loans. Criticized loans were relatively stable at an annualized 4.9%. Nonperforming assets increased by $126 million sequentially to an annualized 74 basis points of loans. The increase was largely driven by 3 credits in the real estate, consumer goods and agriculture industries. In our current assessment, we do not expect these credits to result in meaningful incremental losses, and they do not alter our outlook for net charge-offs. Moving forward, we expect several sizable nonperforming loans to resolve through the rest of the year. Overall, our portfolio remains healthy, fundamental performance of our borrowers remains resilient and is tracking in line with expectations. Moving to Slide 11. Our CET1 ratio was 11.2% and our marked CET1 ratio was 9.8% at quarter end. As Chris mentioned, we continue to expect to repurchase at least $1.3 billion of our shares for the year. Moving to Slide 12. We are increasing our 2026 guidance to reflect our loan growth out-performance. We now expect revenue to grow 7% to 8% compared to approximately 7% that was previously communicated. We also now expect full year net interest income to increase 9% to 11% compared to the prior guide of 9% to 10%. This guidance holds under a fairly broad range of interest rate scenarios, including a [indiscernible] scenario. We now expect to exit the year with a net interest margin in the range of 3% to 3.05% and with average earning assets increasing between $1 billion to $2 billion from the second quarter. This outlook assumes continued loan growth and a stable competitive deposit environment, while incremental balance sheet growth may be modestly margin-dilutive, we are willing to trade NIM to a degree to add quality relationship clients with a short term profile. Additionally, we continue to expect the benefits of over $9 billion of low-yielding fixed asset repricing through year-end, and disciplined deposit management to more than offset that impact. We now expect average loans to increase 4% to 5% compared to our previous guidance of 2% to 4%, and average commercial loans are now expected to increase 8% to 10% this year. The higher outlook reflects strong loan growth through the first half of the year, continued success in adding and expanding client relationships and healthy commercial loan pipelines that continue to support growth in the second half of 2026. All other guidance remains unchanged. In summary, subject to the usual macro caveats and a constructive environment that remains broadly consistent with today, we expect to maintain our strong momentum through the second half of the year and deliver a solid return on and return of capital to shareholders. With that, I would like to now turn the call back to the operator to provide instructions for the Q&A session. Operator?
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The first question will go to the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.
Ryan Nash
analystClarke, maybe to start on the net interest margin [Audio Gap] Including deposit costs, fixed rate asset repricing. And any other impacts you think we could see that happened this quarter that may not repeat? And I have a follow-up.
Christopher Gorman
executiveWell, Ryan, first of all, thanks for the question. Let me just make a brief comment. NIM is clearly an important metric for us. But as you can imagine, what we're most densely focused on is our long-term return targets. By the way, both of which are still intact. So Clark, you can maybe step us through the detail.
Clark Khayat
executiveSure. Thanks for the question, Ryan. So maybe first, just to remind everyone NIM was up in the quarter, just not up maybe as much as we would have expected. But maybe just a couple of factors in Q2. So stronger loan growth than we expected through the quarter. We obviously covered that. The loans we put on came in at a higher credit quality and therefore, a little bit tighter spreads, so bigger balance sheet, a little bit tighter spread. And then overnight SOFR was down about 4 basis points in the quarter. So put all those together, again, a little bit bigger balance sheet, a little better margin. We had a known seasonal low in deposits. So as we told you, troughing in late May that happened sort of as expected with the timing of that loan growth, created a little larger funding need in the period, and we chose to fill that with wholesale funds rather than reprice the client deposit base because the expectation is we're going to see some good deposit growth here in the second half. So -- as you transition then, it gets us confident we'll go from where we are at 3%. And you hit most of the elements there, Ryan, but about $9 billion of fixed asset repricing coming in the back half with a pickup of about 1.25%. As I mentioned, solid client deposit growth, so about 2% or $3 billion in the second half, largely from core operating deposits. So should be very solid growth with good relative pricing. And because that's coming, as I noted, that's why we chose to bridge with short-term wholesale funds. And then while we do expect loan growth, we would expect it to moderate off the first half pace. And some of that is just not that client activity will be down, but it will be a mix between the balance sheet and the market. So put all those together and I think what we see as a path to 3% plus with what we think is relatively low execution risk based on what's in front of us today. The last piece I'd say just on deposit costs, is rates are stable, we would expect deposit costs through the period to be pretty stable. If we see a hike as is sort of becoming more probable, I guess, from a market standpoint, we would see deposit costs start to drift up a little bit, but will get the offset in loan yields and frankly, I don't think that will be really impactful in the back half of '26.
Ryan Nash
analystGot it. And then maybe as my follow-up, Chris, seems that results on investment banking fell a little bit shy of expectations. We're obviously seeing strong results across the industry. I know 1Q was a record. But maybe just talk about what drove the miss? And then when you look at pipelines, you mentioned you expect to be up 20% in 3Q. Maybe just talk about expectations that are embedded for the back half of the year?
Christopher Gorman
executiveSure. Well, thanks for the question. And we did come up short of what we had anticipated in the quarter. We obviously came off [ a first ] quarter and we're coming off strong comps in 2025. Having said that, we remain confident that we'll have the ability to grow mid-single digit. In the first half, we completed about $366 million, and so we're up about 4%. So as we mentioned, the pipelines are very, very strong. We're up 9% linked quarter, up 31% year-over-year. And as you know, Ryan, there tends to be some seasonality in this business and that particularly in these middle market deals, a lot of people want to get them closed by year-end. That is a natural thing. So over time, we always see a step up in the back half of the year. When you mentioned that people who were having great quarters and indeed they are. What's interesting is, to date, there's been a real bifurcation between large deals and the middle market deals, transaction volume is actually down 24% year-to-date. However, the value believe it or not, is up 83%. So as you can see, a real skew sort of two larger deals. I feel good about how we're positioned. It's not as though any of these deals fell apart, they get pushed out, which often happens in due diligence, et cetera. And when I speak about pipelines, these are engaged deals that people are spending valuable time and money on. So people are invested in these deals. I think we'll see them come out in the in the back half of the year. And the last comment I would make, and this sounds kind of counterintuitive, Clark just commented on the interest rate environment. I think in a higher-for-longer environment, when people think that rates are either going to be higher for longer or potentially even go up. Today [indiscernible] is obviously around 4.6%. I think that's actually a better climate to get deals done than a climate where people are anticipating a bunch of rate cuts and tend to kind of sit on the sidelines. So that might be more than you're looking for, but that's how I'm thinking about the business.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.
L. Erika Penala
analystI guess maybe on this whole NIM versus NII debate, Chris and Clark, you said something willing to trade NIM to add clients with a strong return profile. Maybe unpack that for us in that if loan growth is stronger, my read is there's pressure on incremental pressure on the NIM. But as a management team, how do you think about that in the framework of the 16% to 18% ROTCE that you want to hit over the medium term? Just contextualize how long does it take to make up for that NIM that you give up to drive growth on the fee side or how we should think about the time line?
Christopher Gorman
executiveYes. So it's a great question. And I don't think our target of 15% plus by 12/31/27 is in conflict with growing the business, generating more NII, generating more EPS. We are very targeted on who we want to do business with. And we're fortunate enough to bring a lot of these new to client customers onto the balance sheet. We have a in perspective, about 58% of our C&I loans are investment grade. So obviously, and I've said this many times, you usually start by providing some capital. But in order to get the kind of returns that we have to get we've got to do a lot more things for them. And usually, that takes a bit of time. But I don't think it's a trade that's in conflict. I actually think growing the business with our targeted customers is actually helpful on our long-term path to achieve our -- the kind of returns on tangible common equity that we're looking for.
Ebrahim Poonawala
analystGot it. And I guess maybe just a follow-up, mentioned the 2% deposit growth in the back half. It looks like you have a pretty decent line of sight in terms of what's coming through. How should we then think about, one, if there's any more color on that deposit growth drivers of that? And then just, Chris, to your point about the 15% ROTCE by fourth quarter '27, do we still feel good about the margin being the 3.25% plus that you've about in the past?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. So Ebrahim, it's Clark. Thanks for the question. So we do have, we think, very good visibility on that deposit growth. It will be largely commercial in nature and connected to relationship clients with whom we have very tight interaction. So we -- as we see that there is a seasonal build in the commercial book. I think that's pretty broadly known. And again, we have very good line of sight again on what we think is a rich pool of operating deposits coming through. And again, appropriately priced. We think some of that won't all be noninterest-bearing, for example. Some of that will be interest-bearing. Some of that will be in our hybrid accounts, et cetera, but we sort of like the profile of that for sure. As it relates to the 15% return in fourth quarter '27 and the related NIM target, what I'd say is -- just to reiterate Chris' point, at the end of the day, returns really are the most important thing we're looking at over time and making them sustainable. That is not to say NIM is not an important factor and something that we keep track of. And at this point, there's nothing that would tell us we have concerns about hitting either of those targets in Q4 '27.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.
Christopher McGratty
analystClarke or Chris, the operating leverage comment. Obviously, it's very wide this year. I'm interested in, I guess, sustainability. And again, what's factored into the medium term in terms of operating leverage, can you continue to generate operating leverage [indiscernible]?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. Chris, it's Clark. Look, again, assuming a constructive macro environment, we feel very good about that. I think we have demonstrated over time, we can manage expenses very effectively. And as Chris has noted, many times here, we like the pipelines, the current status of the business and the momentum going forward. So if you put those two together, we do feel comfortable that we can drive operating leverage going forward. We have talked before about kind of long-term expense growth, and we think we're a little bit -- we were a little bit higher last year. We're still going to be kind of above that long-term target, but fighting to that over time. And that's a combination of continuous improvement efforts and finding opportunities to reinvest in the business, understanding that you got to cover inflation and people and some of the other costs. So there's nothing again in our crystal ball as good or bad as it may be that tells us we're concerned about not being able to deliver that sustainably.
Christopher Gorman
executiveBy the way, that's -- while we're investing significantly in the business, whether it's hiring or the $1 billion we're going to spend this year on tech and ops.
Christopher McGratty
analystGot it. Okay. Wonderful. And then, Chris, on the buyback, you reiterated $1.3 billion at least this year. Obviously, we have the Basel proposals that will be a tailwind. But I'm interested in just your views of the toggle between what appears to be strengthening growth and returning capital? I know you had a comment in the release about return on and [ merchant both capital ].
Christopher Gorman
executiveSure. So our capital priorities remain unchanged, Chris. The first is to support our clients and our prospects, and that's where we're going to focus. Secondly, what I just mentioned, we're going to continue to invest heavily in the business because we think there's a great opportunity. Third would be our dividend. And then lastly would be share repurchases. Obviously, we have an abundance of capital right now. We think if Basel III plays out the way it's currently described, we'll be the beneficiary under some time line of another 100 basis points, but we haven't given any guidance yet with respect to that through 2027.
Clark Khayat
executiveThe only thing I'd add there is, as you noted, Chris, on track to the $1.3 billion. We're a little bit ahead of schedule. I would just sort of assume kind of $300 million a quarter in the back half which gets just north of that number. But I think maybe the takeaway there is less about the number and more about just a methodical, thoughtful kind of quarter-by-quarter approach, which may not get us exactly to the place we want to be quickly, but I think gives us maximum flexibility to support clients as that evolves and obviously, to absorb any macro deterioration that might happen.
Christopher Gorman
executiveAnd the other thing I would add to the discussion is we basically have reaffirmed the target of 9.5% to 10% on a marked basis. We think that's the right amount of capital. Having said that, we wouldn't be adverse to going below that from time to time if we needed to because we're generating a lot of capital.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.
L. Erika Penala
analystMy first question is from -- my first question is for you, Clark. Clearly, the stock is hoping lower. And I'm wondering if it's just a lower exit rate. As we think about that path to 3.25%, and obviously, fully hear everybody loud and clear that client growth is way more important than just NIM. How much of the path from, let's call it, 3.02% in 4Q of '26 to 3.25%, is baked relative to the balance sheet dynamics that you see? So I guess what the market is trying to figure out in terms of the initial reaction is how safe is consensus EPS for '27 relative to the NIM outlook?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. Great question, Eric. So one, and I'm not being flipped at all. I think the difference between 3.05% and 3% to 3.05% isn't significant enough to get people or shouldn't be significant enough to get people concerned about the full year '27. And obviously, we haven't provided full guidance for '27, which we'll do as we get through the year. But I think to your question and just start sort of broadly on the structural piece, between now and 12/31 of '27, we're looking at about $30 billion of fixed asset -- fixed asset repricing across the swap book, securities and consumer mortgages. So again, that's pretty well baked, as you can imagine, and assuming the rate environment is what it is today, the returns on that are pretty solid. We continue starting in the second half here to see good paths to operating deposit growth, which obviously helps on the funding optimization side going forward. And we'll see where loan growth goes from here. But obviously, it has been strong, and we will continue to play in that as it makes sense. So I think just all around, we feel very good about that path. We think our view, I think, would be rates are probably relatively flat in the back half here. But certainly, if there are hikes, we are prepared to manage those as well and think that the 3.25% will remain intact.
L. Erika Penala
analystAnd I'll follow-up offline to unpack that a little bit more. Chris second question is, so where are we in the middle market investment banking cycle? So I think there has been hope that this capital markets renaissance, which is starting with large cabin strategics, is going to be multiyear. And I guess, like as we think about middle market activity, how much is key tied to sponsors versus how much is just tied to maybe sort of a lag in sentiment and pro-activeness in terms of middle market activity?
Christopher Gorman
executiveGreat question, Erika. I think we -- I think the middle market activity is lagging the large activity. And I think -- what I mentioned earlier about interest rates, I think, has been a factor I think what's been going on, frankly, in the private credit market has been a factor for us. 40% of our fees are driven by private equity. And as you know, it's pretty well documented that the exits have been fewer and a lot more stretched out. So I think -- we are in the early innings of -- to use your words, the renaissance of middle market M&A. I'm actually very -- I'm very encouraged by what I see. As you know, as long as there's an inverse relationship between hold period and cash-on-cash turn, eventually, those transactions will come out.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.
Manan Gosalia
analystClark, you made a point that lower loan spreads are coming from pivoting to higher-quality clients. I guess a number of banks have made that comment this quarter. The question is, what do you see that is driving that? Is it more demand related to CapEx and AI-related investment spend from larger clients? Or is it something else?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. I mean it's a great question, Manan. I think it is consistent with the histories we're in and the clients we target, frankly, our book has [indiscernible] been a little bit more investment grade, just given our capital markets platform because those are the clients that tend to need those capabilities. So I don't know if you've heard that across the industry. I don't know if it's a broad or sustained trend, but at least for us, those are the deals that we saw in the quarter that were very consistent with our targeted approach, and you're happy to to serve those clients more broadly than just the lending, obviously, and it helps the credit profile turnover as well.
Christopher Gorman
executiveFor example, a lot of the credit that's being provided is for the build-out of the electrical infrastructure in this country. One of the things that AI has made abundantly clear is that there's a massive shortage, both of power generation and distribution. And as you can well imagine, we are a significant player in that and specifically people that are market leaders in that are very significant companies, for example.
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. And I guess maybe the other element I might raise is we had some growth in our REIT portfolio, which was entirely investment-grade in nature. So again, it is tied to Chris' point in the REIT point to pockets of real targeted scale for us.
Manan Gosalia
analystGot it. And maybe as a related question, Chris, in your response to Ebrahim's question, you spoke about it taking some time for the fees and other higher returning businesses coming through from some of the new clients. What's your level of conviction that you can bring in that business over the next year or so? I guess the reason I'm asking that question is, a couple of years ago, we just went through around across the industry, for running off some of the lower returning lending-only relationships. So maybe if you can unpack on why you have more conviction on bringing in those fee-based businesses this time around?
Christopher Gorman
executiveSure. So I guess the easy part of that question are with our existing customers, where every 6 months, we go through a deep dive on all of our significant exposure, what are we getting in addition to the credit exposure, what are we pitching? And this is a discipline that we've had for a long time. You've probably heard me speak before that a properly graded commercial loan can't return its cost of capital. And that's why we're so committed to this targeted scale approach by industry. With respect to the new clients -- we expect to hit our return hurdles, and we expect to hit them within 12 to 18 months. and we're looking at those every 6 months. And so it's just -- it's a lot of discipline and -- but it's something that, as you know, we've been at for a long time. And we don't bet a thousand. There'll be some that we don't get the kind of returns that we expect to, and we will exit those. But we have a pretty good track record, particularly with our focused by industry group, where we can do a lot more for these companies with respect to payments, hedging, advisory, et cetera.
Operator
operatorOur next question will be to the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.
John Pancari
analystOn the -- back to the loan growth that towards higher quality but lower yielding again. The answer to Manan's question, is there at all an intentional shift on your part focusing on these borrowers? Or is it more of a market shift where you're seeing this? And related to that, are you avoiding any pockets of lending whether it be India fire-related or areas like that, given the backdrop? And then maybe can you just talk about loan pricing competition? Is there outright intensification around new loan yields that you're seeing impact this?
Christopher Gorman
executiveYes. So first of all, where we focus -- it's easier to talk about where we focused and where we don't focus because we're really focused on 7 industry verticals. So within those verticals, we feel like we understand kind of who the winners are, who the losers are, who's gaining share, who's losing share, et cetera. So we're very focused on those industry verticals because we're focused on those industry verticals, as those companies grow, a greater percentage of them become investment-grade companies, and we continue to serve them. So that's really -- it's all about our industry focus, which is a bit unique to us. With respect to a similarly graded credit, if you look at kind of spread over SOFR from a year ago to present, there's some degradation, but it's not that significant, John. candidly. It still goes back to my basic premise that if you're going to provide capital, you better be able to do a lot of other things because you're never going to get your returns based on the spreads today or last year.
Clark Khayat
executiveAnd maybe the -- just two additions, John. One, on NDFI, we noted we're up about $600 million in the quarter. We don't really avoid that. We like -- we don't actually think about it as a thing other than when we report it and answer questions on it, we did grow our REIT business in the quarter, that is in the NDFI category. We grew our specialty finance lending business a little bit, call it, $100 million or so, so not hugely significant. We're not shying away from those for the purposes of avoiding the NDFI designation. We are not doing deals that don't make sense for us. So specialty finance lending, in particular, over the past years, a few years, we have walked away from a handful of things that just didn't make sense to us. So -- it's not a function of the categorization at all. We're just -- we're trying to make good underwriting decisions in those cases.
Christopher Gorman
executiveAnd just one other thing. A lot of times, people can slatei NDFI with private credit. So our NDFI numbers are more than twice what our private credit numbers are. And within private credit, there's SFL, but we have uni-tranche. We have our real estate lenders, and we also have some other things like insurance companies, just some background.
John Pancari
analystGot it. Okay. And then separately, back to the margin. Just want to get a little bit more color around -- I mean you cited the confident in that 4Q exit rate, you cited that you see low execution risk. Just what about the second quarter margin performance that surprised you negatively. Is now likely to surprise you again? Just is it -- was it the type of growth that you saw or the the spread or the rate backdrop? Maybe if you could just talk to us like why should we not worry about that as you cited the low execution risk on that [indiscernible] NIM?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. So fair question. I think it's really the mismatch in timing between the asset growth and the deposit levels in the quarter. So you trough [indiscernible] again, we troughed sort of at the time and at the levels we expected. We just had larger client balances on the loan side at that time. So to the extent loan growth does slow a bit. And again, just to be clear, I don't mean client activity is slowing, just loan growth, we think, will be a little lighter as the capital market activity picks up. But given that we believe we can fill the funding stack with quality deposits here, that's really the biggest difference. And if the loan growth that we expect to see for the year had come in uniformly, I think you would see a smoother kind of movement in NIM.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.
Matthew O'Connor
analystI was hoping you guys could elaborate on the small deal that you did within the Investment Bank in terms of what product or where exactly to add them?
Christopher Gorman
executiveSure, Matt. I'd be happy to speak to that. So -- the business that we announced is a company that we had a JV with for the last 6 years. And so -- it's important -- it's an M&A boutique basically. And it's important when you're representing companies in the states that you have distribution in the U.K. and on the continent. And conversely, obviously, people selling their business in Europe want to have access to among other things, the private equity buyers in the United States. So not many JVs really work that well in the financial services industry. This is one where we work together. We've worked on many deals over the last 6 years. And as a consequence, we were able to put together the deal. I think it is both for offense and defensive purposes. And I think it will be a good buttress to our leading M&A practice.
Matthew O'Connor
analystAnd then maybe more broadly speaking, I mean, everyone's kind of leaning into the capital markets side, banking set of businesses. Is there an argument that you want to be a little more diversified. You've got obviously the strength in the middle market, which, as you alluded to earlier, has not been as strong as some of the bigger kind of transactions out there. Any thoughts on, if you need to branch out a little bit from your current expertise?
Christopher Gorman
executiveWe're always looking -- thank you for the question. We're always looking at other industry verticals where we think we could be really relevant. And we also, as you know, have done, I think, a really good job of expanding our core middle market business in new cities that we haven't been in, in the past. So we're always looking at where -- and usually, it's something that is an adjacency or tangential to what we're doing. But you can expect we'll continue to look for opportunities where there's big pockets of potential fees, where we think we have a good opportunity to win.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.
Michael Mayo
analystSo I'm not sure if your forecast will be correct. First, that you have 2% deposit growth with flat deposit rates. So that's the first point I guess. I'm questioning if you'll be -- it will be on the third quarter earnings call or the fourth quarter earnings call. Well, it didn't quite play out the way we thought. And the other thing I'm not sure is if you -- that 40% of fees driven by private equity is actually going to translate to something in investment banking. We've been hearing that for 3 years from you and everybody else. And the big banks had investment banking go up 50% year-over-year, yours is down 5%. So I do think, like you said, that's kind of important. I did hear you that it should be up 20% plus in the third quarter, but two pushbacks, deposit growth, 2% and then private equity investment banking fees coming back
Christopher Gorman
executiveSure. Well, let me on touch on the 2% because it's something we haven't talked about on this call, but I think it's important. So about 10 years ago, on the commercial side, we became very, very focused on primacy. 82% of our deposits, we have primacy. And the reason I share that is those same companies have other deposits that are elsewhere. We talk to -- they are our clients. We know where the deposits are. We know what they cost, and we know we could go get them. So I just -- I give you that kind of as a backdrop because we're really tight on our disciplines around that. With respect to giving you additional confidence, Mike, with respect to our investment banking numbers, as I said, these pipelines are real, timing of investment banking deals, as you know, is always a challenge. If you look at our long-term compound annual growth rate, I think you'll see it's been very, very significant. We're coming off a record year last year, coming off a record first quarter. I think we've given some pretty conservative numbers and it's hard out to go out there and deliver those, and we will. Cark, what would you add to the 2% question?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. So Mike, fair pushback, I would say, as it relates to the operating deposit growth, some of that we know is coming from new clients we've added in the year, and those operating deposits will come on if they don't come on necessarily on day 1. So we see the process of them coming on. The second is just the visibility we have into standard client flows over the quarter and the year, and there is some seasonality to that. We've got to Chris' point, years of data that would support that. So we feel good about it, but we can have this rematch on the third quarter call [indiscernible]. To be clear on the pricing, though, because I just want to make sure we're all saying the same thing, that assumes relatively stable deposit pricing for us, assumes no hikes. If there are hikes, we're obviously going to feel that in the deposit cost base. So we're not trying to say we're going to keep deposit prices flat if there is a hike. My point was that, that will be relatively neutral from an impact standpoint on NII and NIM in the back half of the year. So we think we can insulate ourselves through Q4 if there is a hike or two. If there isn't -- if there aren't any, we would expect deposit pricing to be relatively stable. So I just wanted to be clear on that.
Michael Mayo
analystOkay. And one follow-up on the investment banking. And Chris, I know you built that business and -- once again, the 4 set of fees from private equity, again it's you and everybody else who's talked about sponsors coming back for at least the last 3 years, and we're just waiting and one big competitor said, hey, they're going to see momentum, and I don't know. Do you really think it's going to come back at some point? Or do you have any evidence that it's picking up a little bit? And do you really need it to come back for kind of a greater acceleration. And for your C&I loan growth, I think what you've said is the new normal is that your clients are used to the geopolitical uncertainties. They're pursuing their capital expenditures and building their plants and getting their equipment and all that. So why wouldn't that new normal also apply to middle market M&A?
Christopher Gorman
executiveSure. So the direct question is we do need -- because I mentioned it's 40% of the business with financial sponsors. We do need that to come back. I am confident that it will come back, looking both at our specific pipelines, these are engaged pipelines and also what we're out there in the market with. And I think your comments with respect to loans is true. And what we've seen, and you saw it in a bifurcation between the big banks and the folks like us that are really focused on the middle market is the big companies moved first -- that's why we were just talking about the significant year-over-year. We have 12% C&I loan growth, mostly investment-grade year-over-year. Real estate, we've got a backlog now. We expect pipelines to be up 18% from -- they're up 18% from year-end. So we're starting to see this activity, and I just think the middle market and frankly, the private equity the private equity holders are the last to move. And as I said earlier, I think one of the reasons they were last to move is they try to optimize when they look for an exit, but you can only optimize so long before to generate the kind of returns that you need to, so you can raise the next fund, you've got to come out. So thank you for the follow-up.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC. My apologies. The next question is actually from Ken Usdin from Autonomous.
Kenneth Usdin
analystOkay. Great. We've never taken place of Gerard. Two quick follow-ups. One on the deposit side. Just -- I know you've given us some color now about expected growth and there was a transactional stuff in the second quarter. But can you just talk about noninterest-bearing mix, should we be thinking more about the second quarter average as a growth point? And then related just on the consumer deposit side, can you just talk about ins and outs with regards to either maturing CDs and underlying account growth?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. So thanks for the question, Ken. If I look at interest-bearing -- noninterest-bearing in the second quarter, I would think about that as kind of flattish through the back half. So as we have talked about before, and I referenced a little bit earlier, some of those operating deposits come on as interest-bearing, albeit at relatively low rates or they're in the hard accounts which we do try to adjust for, but I would expect noninterest-bearing as a percentage, again, to be relatively flat in the back half, but the quality of the operating deposits coming on are quite strong. On the Consumer side, we talked about 3% household growth in the second quarter. We continue to see some positive growth there. That's core checking accounts coming on in the thousands of dollars at a time. So that takes time to build. And then I do think we'll see a little bit of pickup in CD and MMDA production here in the second half. So we have gone out in a few select markets with a little bit higher rates than we've had over the last 4 or 5 quarters. And so we would expect a little bit of pickup, but I wouldn't expect that to be the lion's share of the deposit growth.
Kenneth Usdin
analystGot it. Great. And just one other question on credit. In your prepared remarks, you put a fine point on on the potential resolution of some of the bigger NPAs in the back half I just wonder if you could just give us a little bit more granularity on -- you had talked about this in conference season about how you're watching a couple of things. So I just want to understand, obviously, the reserve went down. You mentioned that the underlying still feels really strong. And so just any points you can further on giving us the confidence that, that loss content is quite low and that the direction of travel on NPAs should be positive?
Clark Khayat
executiveYes. So let me maybe just make a broad comment about the reserve and then Mo can hit some of the more fine points here. So one, we released despite the NPAs being up because generally, the overall health of the portfolio is improving. Some of that is the higher credit quality we talked about. Some of that is other charge-off and resolutions that have happened throughout the year and some of this just economic continued sort of constructive economic profile. So we look at that, our quantitative measures would have actually called for a significantly larger release just given some of the geopolitical uncertainty, we still feel out there in some of the -- again, some of maybe the lack of clarity on path forward caused us to overlay some qualitative build there and just reduce the size of that. So if it were purely quantitative here, we would have released quite a bit more. We just didn't feel like that was appropriate given the broad environment. But but we generally, again, feel quite good about the strength of the overall balance sheet.
Mohit Ramani
executiveYes. Thanks, Clark. And just to continue that theme relative to credit. Again, I think as you all know, we have a very proactive risk culture in terms of risk identification. We did see an uptick in credit class NPL, but really kind of based on a few factors. First of all, none of the migration was private credit related. And so we don't think that this is a harbinger of anything from a macro perspective that we are overly concerned about. But we had some names in the multifamily space, consumer goods and then our agriculture book. Then just from a timing perspective, happened to land this quarter. Again, as we mentioned, when we see signs of migration, we [indiscernible] because we also think that helps us from a resolution perspective. We do have specific reserves against our NPLs, which again is why we feel relatively confident that from an NCO guide perspective, we're still on track for our 40 to 45 basis points for the year. And again, some other little tidbits, the multifamily space again, very strong. We've got sponsors with equity on those deals. We expect quick resolutions. So again, not a lot of loss content there. Consumer just sort of episodic with a couple of names. And in agriculture, just given some of the fuel and fertilizer and labor dynamics there as well. But overall, we don't feel like a lot of lost content relative to this move.
Operator
operatorThe next question will come from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.
Gerard Cassidy
analystHi, Chris and Clark.
Christopher Gorman
executiveIs this the real Gerard?
Gerard Cassidy
analystKen is smarter. That was good to have him go first. The question is just a bigger picture question. Obviously, the AI industry in this country is on fire, is doing phenomenally well. It's growing by leaps and bounds, and everybody is benefiting from it, it seems like. So my question is, I'm always looking at the second derivative or derivative of a strong industry because eventually, the industry will slow down. The rate of growth, that second derivative is certainly going to slow down. And so have you guys been able to start preparing for credits that are not directly -- I know you're not building data centers with construction loans. But what are the second derivative customers that -- aside from the HVAC guys and plumbers that you may see have actually exposure to AI and when that slows down, maybe to some issues with them down the road. Have you guys trying to map that out? Or how will you map it out?
Christopher Gorman
executiveThat's a great question. We have spent time. I'm not going to tell you that we're completely mapped out on it but we spend time talking about it. Let me talk about where I think the trajectory is going to continue for a while. And then by definition, initially as they say, trees don't grow to the sky. So eventually, there will be a reversal. But in the near term, and when I say near term, I'm talking about a 5-year period. One of the things, and I mentioned it earlier on the call, one of the things that this has laid bare is just the absolute shortage of electrons in the United States. We have a shortage of power, and we have a shortage of distribution. I've actually been involved in this for the last couple of years and a couple of business groups I'm part of -- and so I think that is going to continue, Gerard literally for a long time. And I think the problem existed before, but it was exacerbated by the fact that these obviously huge data centers take down in some instances, as much power as a small city. So that is on the positive side. So we're looking at that. And I just wonder when the build-out will finally end and kind of what the -- how that will play out. More near term is things like software companies. We have fortunately less than about $300 million of exposure direct to software companies in spite of the fact we have a good tech business. That's an area that we're worried about. Other areas that we're taking a look at are professional service areas. Think about lawyers, consultants, accountants, there's no question that large language models are most easily applied in some of those instances. So that's the kind of discussions we've been having around our table here.
Mohit Ramani
executiveAnd just from a portfolio rigor perspective, again, we conduct quarterly portfolio reviews, and we are looking for emerging risk hotspots. So this is something that your question about second derivative is actually perfect because those are the types of things that we're thinking about as well.
Christopher Gorman
executiveAnything else?
Gerard Cassidy
analystReal quick, just coming back to Mo for a second. I know you mentioned the multifamily credit. But there's other -- and you guys have strong credit. So I'm not terribly concerned about that today. But I'm curious, those two other credits. Was it become customers are over-levered or they lose a big customer of theirs that hit cash flow, but I'm just curious what happened in those idiosyncratic issues that you guys have identified?
Mohit Ramani
executiveYes. No, great question, Gerard. One was just a consumer name that was impacted by tariffs, multibank deal. And so again, we actually expect a probably formal resolution later this year, but it was a company that filed for bankruptcy. So again, we sort of view that as it was tariff related, but sort of idiosyncratic relative to that space. And I do think, again, Consumer probably is going to be still a choppy area relative to as you think about not only in the K-shaped economy, but certain types of businesses as well. And so we're, again, increasingly selective there relative to the portfolio, but that was really the driver.
Christopher Gorman
executiveAnd then you might just talk about the the ag deal was really -- so we have some ag exposure that is in Western Washington. And the biggest challenge there, obviously, people talk about fuel, they talk about fertilizer. The biggest challenge is workers. There's not -- there are just not enough workers to properly to do the farming.
Mohit Ramani
executiveAnd just as an add-on, since it's topical, we -- no exposure to lattice farming. So typically, our ag book is, again, potatoe and other things you might find in the Pacific Northwest.
Clark Khayat
executiveConsumer market at this point, Gerard, is Amazon, COVID and tariffs, like back to back to back. So the guys who are hanging in there are resilient and durable and a lot to ask for any industry.
Operator
operatorOur next question will go to the line of David Chiaverini with Jefferies.
David Chiaverini
analystOn fee income, good momentum in payments and wealth up 8% collectively year-over-year. Could you talk about the outlook there and drivers of that growth?
Christopher Gorman
executiveYes. So let's start with payments. We've been investing in payments for a long time. Places like embedded banking, that's been a double-digit grower for us for each of the last few years, and we project it to be a double-digit grower for us as we go forward. So we've got a lot of traction there. With respect to our wealth business, that's a strong business. We're at $74 billion of AUM, show that is up 9% year-over-year. But if you really looked at the fees related to wealth management, those are growing at about 14%. So that's a business we feel good about. And we've been very focused, as I mentioned, since 2023 on this mass affluent space, which we think is a sort of an unmet need out there in the marketplace.
David Chiaverini
analystAnd then on deposit pricing, it sounds like it's very rate dependent, but how would you characterize the competitive environment in your markets more intense or about the same versus, say, 3 to 6 months ago?
Clark Khayat
executiveIt's good question. So when we talk about our markets, it's a little challenging to have one answer because we really view ourselves as being in very different geographic markets between the Northeast and Midwest and the Pacific Northwest or the West. They do operate a little bit differently. They do have a slightly different competitive set. I would say there are certain places where it has been much more intense from the beginning of the year. I think that's owing to some unique circumstances of the competitive set. But I think given the loan growth and the rate environment combination, we are definitely seeing, again, throughout the year, a little bit more deposit intensity in general, but the rate sensitivity comment, again, just to be clear, is really just the betas that are going to follow from any Fed move. So we're not necessarily thinking about the rates in a flat environment, moving meaningfully from where they are today.
Operator
operatorThat concludes our Q&A session. I would now like to pass the conference call over to our CEO, Christopher Gorman, for any closing remarks.
Christopher Gorman
executiveWell, thank you, Megan, and thank you all for joining our call today. We appreciate your continued interest in Key. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to reach out directly to Troy or others on the Investor Relations team. Thank you all. The meeting is now adjourned.
Operator
operatorThat concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and enjoy the rest of your day.
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