Killam Apartment REIT (KMPUN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust Year-end 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded on Thursday, February 17, 2021. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Philip Fraser. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining Killam Apartment REIT's Q4 and year-end 2021 conference call. I am here today with Robert Richardson, Executive Vice President; Dale Noseworthy, Chief Financial Officer; Erin Cleveland, Senior Vice President of Finance; and Nancy Alexander, Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. Slides to accompany today's call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website under Events and Presentations. I will now ask Nancy to read our cautionary statement.

Thank you, Philip. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements with respect to Killam Apartment REIT and its operations, strategy, financial performance, conditions or otherwise. The actual results and performance of Killam discussed here today could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Such statements involve numerous inherent risks and uncertainties, and although Killam management believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements will occur as anticipated. For further information about the inherent risks and uncertainties and in respect of forward-looking statements, please refer to Killam's most recent annual information form and other securities regulatory filings found online on SEDAR. All forward-looking statements made today speak only as of the date which this presentation refers and Killam does not intend to update or revise any such statements, unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws.

Thank you, Nancy. 2021 was a very successful year for Killam and its unitholders. We achieved 5.1% same-property NOI growth and a solid 7% FFO per unit growth. Our strategy and commitment to the long-term visibility and viability of our core markets has not changed. Increasing earnings from our existing portfolio is a key component of our strategy. We do this in a very responsible way, considering the current financial demands of our tenants, communities and global environment. Our portfolio is benefiting from the innovative ways we are growing our revenue and managing our expenses. We have included our 2021 strategic targets in our year-end documents and measured our performance against them as shown on Slide 3. We met our geographical diversification target in 2021, and we will continue to look for additional properties in our Ontario markets as well as Alberta and British Columbia. In addition, Killam's development pipeline continues to be a key driver of our net asset value creation, producing high-quality properties each year. We are pleased with the considerable progress made during 2021 on our 5 developments, and I am pleased to report that Latitude, a 208-unit building in Ottawa opened on January 1 of this year. Our 2022 targets are also shown on Slide 3. Dale will take us through the Killam's financial results, followed by Robert, who will discuss our revenue and expense initiatives for growing our existing asset base. I will conclude with a recap on both acquisitions and our development pipeline. I will now hand it over to Dale.

Thanks, Phil. Highlights of Killam's 2021 financial performance can be found on Slide 4. We achieved solid earnings growth in 2021, including net income of $285 million. Killam generated FFO per unit of $1.07, up 7% from 2020 and AFFO per unit of $0.90, up 8.4%. These gains were driven by solid earnings from our same-property portfolio and incremental contributions from acquisitions and stabilized development. These positive financial results are attributable to the strength and resiliency of our portfolio, our key markets and our team. 2021 continued a strong record of performance. Slide 5 recaps key financial metrics over the last 5 years. We're proud of our consistent FFO per unit growth while also greatly increasing the size and quality of the portfolio and maintaining a conservative balance sheet. Revenue has increased steadily and FFO per unit has grown by a compound annual growth rate of 4.4%. Killam's current AFFO payout ratio of 76% has improved from 86% 5 years ago, while distributions have increased 5x during the same period. As we continue to execute on our growth strategy, our investment property portfolio has grown by an impressive compound annual growth rate of 18.3% to $4.5 billion today. Slide 6 shows our Q4 and annual FFO and AFFO per unit results. 5.8% same-property NOI growth was a significant driver to the 8% and 5% growth in FFO and AFFO per unit for the fourth quarter. Contributions from acquisitions and completed developments and lower interest rates on mortgage refinancings over the last year also contributed positively to Killam's Q4 results. Slide 7 shows the strength of our existing portfolio with same-property revenues up 4.8% in Q4. This includes a 160 basis point improvement in apartment occupancy in the quarter to 98.1%. We maintained this occupancy throughout Q4, achieving 98.1% occupancy in December, our highest December occupancy on record. Our MHC and commercial properties also performed well in Q4, with MHC revenues up 3.6% and commercial revenues up 10.9%. Same-property operating expenses were up 3.3% in the quarter due primarily to inflationary cost pressures, increased contract services, repairs and maintenance costs, and commodity pricing of natural gas and oil as well as an increase in staffing costs. For the year, same-property revenues were up 4%. Slide 8 highlights the levers driving this revenue growth. In addition to occupancy gains, we achieved 3% growth in year-over-year rental rates. We're seeing increasing market rents across the majority of our markets, and we're successfully capturing these spreads on turnover. We experienced a decrease in turnover in 2021. However, the turnover remained healthy at 26%. We experienced an uptick in rental incentives in the year. These incentives offerings are primarily focused in Alberta. Excluding Alberta, incentives represent only 0.25% of residential rent in 2021. Overall, NOI was up 5.1% for the year, and we achieved a 70 basis point improvement in same-property operating margin. The top chart on Slide 10 shows NOI growth by quarter with an impressive average of 4.1% over the past 16 quarters despite the headwinds of the pandemic in the last 7 quarters. The breakdown of apartment same-property NOI by region can be found on the bottom of Slide 10. It highlights the strength in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. Robust NOI growth, along with a 26 basis point reduction in Killam's weighted average cap rate to 4.41% as at December 31, 2021, resulted in Killam recording $240 million of investment property fair value gains in the year. Strong market fundamentals persist throughout the country with population growth outpacing new housing supply. Last week Statistic Canada released 2021 census numbers, reporting 5.2% population growth in Canada over the last 5 years. Prince Edward Island registered an 8% increase, the highest of all 10 Canadian provinces. Population growth in British Columbia and Ontario were both also above the national average and highlight our growth focus in these regions. Nova Scotia grew by 5% and New Brunswick by 3.8%. Population in urban centers was reported with Ascensus, with Halifax leading the country with 26.1% growth in its downtown core over the past 5 years. Annual population data released by Statistic Canada shows that population growth in the maritime has accelerated over the last few years. Slide 11 shows the substantial population growth in Halifax and our 3 markets in New Brunswick, fueled by strong economic activity, positive trends in immigration and a marked increase in net interprovincial migration. The population growth we're seeing in Atlantic Canada is driving strong demand across the portfolio. Slide 12 highlights our debt maturity profile, including average apartment mortgage rates by year versus prevailing CMHC-insured mortgage rates. During 2021, Killam refinanced $132 million of maturing mortgages with $184 million of new debt at a weighted average interest rate of 2.13%, 24 basis points lower than the weighted average interest rate of the maturing debt. Lower interest expense on Killam's same-property portfolio contributed to FFO per unit growth in 2021. Interest rates are forecasted to rise in 2022. However, Killam's mortgages are diversified to avoid dependence on any specific lending institution and maturity days are staggered to mitigate interest rate risk. Killam is also focused on reducing its debt levels with a longer-term target of debt to total assets of less than 40% by the end of 2025. Slide 13 includes key balance sheet metrics. We are maintaining a conservative balance sheet and ended the year with debt as a percentage of total assets of 45%. Following a $98 million equity offering that closed on February 4, we've reduced our debt levels to approximately 43.5% and have access to over $200 million in capital through our credit facilities and cash on hand, which will support over $400 million in future acquisitions and development. We are well positioned to execute on our growth plans. I will now turn the call over to Robert, who will provide color on key revenue and operating initiatives as well as the value delivery to our residents.

Thank you, Dale, and good morning, everyone. Before discussing Killam's strategy and current operating initiatives, I would like to start by acknowledging Killam's 750 employees with a special nod to our frontline staff that continue daily to interact directly with our residents and commercial tenants. The Killam team's ability to deliver exceptional service as it navigates the ever-changing demands imposed by the pandemic is extremely impressive. Thank you very much for your dedication and excellent work. I will begin today's operating discussions by highlighting Killam's 3 principal strategies that guide us as we grow our business. The #1 priority is to increase earnings from our existing portfolio of properties. Priority 2 is to expand and diversify the portfolio geographically through accretive acquisitions that target newer properties. And number 3 is to construct new low carbon footprint properties while expanding our development pipeline in Killam's core markets. I will discuss Killam's continuous focus on growing same-property revenues and managing our properties' expenses. Philip will conclude the formal part of this call with the spotlight on new acquisitions and developments. Killam's existing portfolio totals approximately 19,000 apartment units, 5,900 MHC sites and 1 million square feet of commercial premises. Our team is focused on optimizing revenues and managing expenses to deliver affordable, quality housing that our residents are proud to call home. Slide 15 details a number of levers Killam uses to increase net operating income. I will speak to these in the next few slides. Slide 16 shows Killam's revenue growth for the year by Property segment. As Dale mentioned earlier, all 3 business segments in our portfolio showed strength and resiliency in 2021 delivering 4% in consolidated revenue growth. Killam's market fundamentals for all apartments throughout Canada remains solid with consistently high occupancy rates coast-to-coast. In 2021, Killam's occupancy increased 50 basis points, contributing to same-property apartment revenue growth of 3.6%. Leasing to date in 2022 has continued to be strong. Today, 49% of Killam's 221 apartment properties are 100% occupied with another 22% having only 1 suite vacant. Combined, 71% of Killam's apartment properties have 1 unit or less vacant. Killam's resort properties in the manufactured home community segment rebounded impressively in 2021 versus the pandemic impacted summer of 2020. The easing of COVID-19 restrictions, combined with increased interprovincial travel resulted in a 15.7% increase in same-property revenue year-over-year. Our commercial portfolio includes 3 large properties plus other smaller properties located primarily in Halifax and Moncton. The Brewery market is a 146,000 square foot retail and office property in downtown Halifax. Westmount Place is a 300,000 square foot retail and office complex located in Waterloo. And our largest commercial property, Royalty Crossing, is a 383,000 square foot enclosed mall in Charlottetown. Killam now owns 75% of Royalty Crossing and assumed property management and leasing duties in 2021. Most recently, Royalty Crossing executed a long-term lease with Sephora, a Tier 1 retailer known to generate significant retail traffic and a tenant that attracts other quality tenants. We expect to build on this success. Overall, Killam leased a net new 75,000 square feet of commercial space throughout the portfolio and renewed over 135,000 square feet of commercial space during 2021, achieving a weighted average net rental rate increase of 8.7%. Killam's commercial segment generated just over 5% of Killam's total net operating income in 2021, achieving 7.4% revenue growth through improved occupancy, higher rental rates and fewer pandemic-related concessions. Please refer to Slide 17. Our very successful repositioning program is one of Killam's revenue optimizing levers in the apartment segment. Over time, we have fine-tuned the process of repositioning suites to minimize downtime while providing our residents with the best finishes based on appeal, functionality and durability. I want to emphasize that Killam is meeting market demand for modern, energy-efficient suites, and there is a sizable portion of the rental marketplace willing and able to pay higher rents or upgraded suites. Based on this market demand for repositioned suites, Killam repositioned 551 suites in 2021, normally more than the 550 budget. We invested an average of $28,000 per suite to reposition the units and generated a 13% unlevered return on investment. Killam's 2022 repositioning program is targeting 600 suites for renovation. I will emphasize that Killam only undertakes repositionings as suites become vacant, and we are not proponents of evicting tenants to facilitate suite repositionings. Killam suite turnover percentage was 26% in 2021. Thus, there is no requirement to force turnover for the repositioning program. Overall, Killam currently has 5,500 additional suites that can be repositioned, and this opportunity continues to cycle forward as the properties age. Improving the revenue line is important, but expense management is also critical to increasing net operating income. Further, achieving expense savings through efficiency upgrades reduces consumption resulting in savings on electricity, water and heating costs while helping to mitigate Killam's impact on climate change. As well, it ensures our buildings are more sustainable and resilient to these changes. Slide 18 highlights Killam's many environmentally sensitive capital investments. We maintain a constant focus on lowering Killam's utility and heating costs, decreasing consumption and minimizing Killam's carbon footprint. In 2021, we invested $8.1 million in these projects and have budgeted another $8 million for 2022. Killam's emissions reduction plan is wide ranging, such as traditional energy efficiency projects like installing LED lighting and low flow water devices, upgrading boilers and heat pumps and improving installation. With the advancement in technology, our green investments now include smart metering, updated building operating technologies, and installation of renewable energy sources such as roof-mounted PV panels and credit card activated EV chargers. And in Killam's new developments, we are keen to install geothermal heating and cooling systems whenever possible. For example, we installed a geothermal system in 3 developments in '21. Once completed, Killam will have 6 buildings and approximately 1,000 units using geothermal heating and cooling sources. Killam has committed to longer-term environmental goals that reduce greenhouse gases and increase renewable energy sources. To help achieve this, we piloted several building certification programs this year, considering the costs and benefits of each. These certifications include [indiscernible], Fitwel and the certified rental building program and should help ensure our portfolio has the best operating and healthy living standards for our residents. We will build on this research and roll out more certified properties in the coming years. Before handing you back to Philip, I want to discuss Killam's emphasis on providing affordable, safe, clean housing for all our residents. Please refer to Slide 19. Killam offers a range of housing options in each of its markets, from long-established properties to newly constructed luxury buildings having the latest finishes and amenities. Killam's portfolio offers a wide selection of locations, unit sizes and layouts in each of its urban and suburban communities. With an average rent of $1.44 per square foot across the portfolio, this represents just $1,240 a month in rent, a remarkable value when consider that heat, water, insurance, maintenance and realty taxes are included in the rent. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's measure of housing affordability is the shelter cost to ratio -- to income ratio which sets the affordability threshold at 30% of before-tax median household income. When we compare Killam's rents to the 30% shelter cost-to-income metric in each of Killam's core markets, it underscores the fact that Killam's average rents are well within CMHC's threshold, ranging from a low of 15% to a high of 25% of median household income in our markets. Killam recognizes it has the city duty to be a contributor to the affordable housing solution. Not only does Killam provide very affordable living options generally, but Killam is an active partner with many nonprofit housing and government agencies such as the YWCA, urban housing initiatives, and centers for addiction and mental health to deliver more than 850 subsidized units in our communities. Along with affordability, we want to ensure our residents are satisfied calling a Killam property home. In late December, we received the results of Killam's annual tenant survey conducted by our third-party provider, Narrative Research. Narrative tells us Killam's 2021 survey had an impressive response rate of 31% over 4,000 surveys completed, and the overall tenant satisfaction rating was 87% which we are advised is markedly better than the industry benchmark for multi-residential owners. As well, I would highlight that Killam's overall satisfaction scores range from 87% to 90% for the last 9 years. In terms of satisfaction with our apartment units, Killam received a 90% satisfaction rating, another very positive outcome. Our residents tell us they enjoy living in a Killam property, 83% consider their apartment to represent good value. The significant increases in purchase prices and upkeep costs for single-family homes these last 2 years reinforces the value proposition renting from Killam offers. I will now hand you back to Philip to provide an update on our developments and acquisitions.

Thank you, Robert. We acquired $400 million in assets in 2021, making it Killam's largest year of acquisitions while also increasing our geographical diversification by producing 33% of our NOI from outside Atlantic Canada. Slide 21 is a snapshot of our acquisitions. One of the most exciting acquisitions last year was the purchase of the 785-suite portfolio in Kitchener Waterloo, expanding our operating platform in this growing urban area of Ontario. Atlantic Canada remains an important market for Killam. And in 2021, it represented 16% of Killam's acquisitions, adding 200 apartment suites in the region. In addition, we increased our ownership in Royalty Crossing, formerly the Charlottetown Mall, by 25% to 75% for $10 million and purchased 14 acres of adjacent land for multi-residential development. Overall, 6% of acquisition dollars were allocated to future residential development. The fourth quarter of 2021 was busy acquiring 5 new properties totaling 516 units, located in Charlottetown, 2 in Moncton and 2 in Edmonton for approximately $125 million. The details on these acquisitions are shown on Slides 22 through 25. We started the year with 3 developments, Shorefront, Nolan Hill and 10 Harley in initial lease-up, and Slide 26 shows the successful lease-up of these new developments. The 349 units were fully leased by mid-2021 and contributed $1.7 million to FFO growth during the year. Slide 27 shows a rendering of the 5 projects that were underway at year-end. As well, Nolan Hill Phase 2, a development in Calgary, in which we have a 10% interest, started construction in December of 2021. This 234-unit complex is expected to be completed in 2023. Killam has a $65 million commitment in place to purchase the remaining 90% interest of the second phase following completion of construction and achievement of certain conditions. These 5 projects, along with Phase II of Nolan Hill, will add 731 units and approximately $300 million of high-quality new construction to our portfolio. The Kay Mississauga is shown on Slide 29. We expect to have the building ready for occupancy by April. We have been delayed approximately 6 months due to COVID and municipal inspection delays. Leasing to date for this property has been very strong with 29% of the units pre-leased. We expect to have Luma, as shown on Slide 30 opened by the end of June of this year. This 168-unit building also contains 9,600 square feet of ground for retail. The Governor in Halifax, shown on Slide 31, is located adjacent to the Alexander and The Brewery market in downtown Halifax. The building is progressing nicely, and we expect to have the luxury 12-unit property finished by the third quarter of this year. Our progress shot is shown on Slide 32. Slides 33 and 34 show our 169-unit development known as Civic 66 in Kitchener. It was topped off in January and is proceeding on budget and on schedule, with completion estimated for early 2023. The budget of this development is $69 million, close to $70 million. Construction financing was placed during Q2 2021, and all the remaining development costs will be funded through this financing. Slide 37 breaks down Killam's future development opportunities totaling approximately 3,800 units that are in various stages of development or predevelopment. This pipeline gives us great value creation for Killam in the coming years. To conclude, we are proud of the performance in 2021. It was the fifth year that we increased our distribution to unitholders. And on February 1 of this year, we were added to the S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. The inclusion of this index reflects the strength of our multi-residential real estate portfolio and our ability to provide an attractive distribution yield. I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication during this year. We are optimistic of the year ahead, and we will continue to execute on our priorities and create value for all of our unitholders during 2022. Thank you, and I will now open up the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Mark Rothschild with Canaccord.

Clearly, the occupancy growth has been nice to see. And not too surprising, obviously, it doesn't get [indiscernible] so easily. Can you talk a little bit about what your thoughts are as far as pushing rents even further? And having that level of occupancy when the market is this strong.

One of the things I would highlight, Mark, is 25% of our portfolio has the ability to turn, right? So that's what we're seeing these days. So it was 26% in 2021. So we see good opportunity there as those units come vacant. Even the ones that were not renovating, we see a fairly good lift there. So we think that, that will help us meet our goal for 2022 in a big way.

Okay. And maybe on that point, with the guidance that you gave or the target rather that you set for a same-property NOI growth of 2% to 3% for the year. Is there an assumption of further increase in turnover? Or would you expect turnover to decrease in there? And with revenue growth the way it is, do you see that as something that could be exceeded? Or is maybe the expense side going to offset?

Mark, I think we are expecting a continued decrease in turnover as the trend we've seen in the last few years. I don't think significantly, but certainly, as you will have seen from our numbers, it's a tight rental market just about everywhere in the country. So -- but that being said, I think that the expense line is the 1 when you look at what our NOI guidance is going to be. We are expecting to feel the effects of the inflationary environment, the cold winter and higher commodity prices and higher property taxes than we've seen in the last few years. So I think that when we look -- when you see that 2% to 3% NOI target, that is reflecting an expectation that we could see expenses potentially over 6% in 2022. Just a reminder, Q1 is always a really important 1 for us when we look at the expenses. Once we see where the winter heating costs fall out, we'll have -- we'll be able to provide a little bit -- probably narrow that down a little bit more.

And Mark, my comments on your question, again, I think it's very understandable when you see the announcements from the federal government in terms of the increased numbers in immigration, and knowing how hard it is to create new supply that the turnover numbers for all of us across the country are on a downward trend until this -- until the supply side of our industry is solved.

Your next question comes from Jonathan Kelcher with TD Securities.

First question, just on the mark-to-market that you guys referenced 10% to 15%. Can you maybe break that down a little? Like is it different between end markets where there's rent control versus markets where there's no rent control?

Yes, it's different across. I'd say, the strongest that we're seeing is probably in Toronto, Kitchener, Waterloo area when we see those mark-to-market spreads. Halifax is looking very healthy. I'd say those 2 are probably the biggest standouts. New Brunswick, still some good upside, but not to the same extent that we would see in those other markets. BC as well looks very good in terms of that. So I'd say that I do think rent control plays a factor there, but so does population growth and everything else.

So those markets would be kind of above the 15% and in the markets where there's no rent control would be closer to the 10% or less?

Yes.

And then in New Brunswick, you did talk about a big gain or a big increase in property taxes. What sort of uplift do you think you can push through on renewals in New Brunswick?

So we've been pretty consistent. When you look even our gains this year, most of it was on rent increases on turns and renewals. So on turns probably somewhere between 7% and 10%. On turns, I think, it is reasonable to expect in that market.

Okay. And then just lastly, that I think you've put this in, in the past, but I don't think I saw it this time. You talked about the energy investments that you guys are making. Do you guys set a target return for those investments? And if so, what would that be?

We did set target returns. And typically, we're running around 10%, and we go as low as 7% for the right one. And then sometimes, they're 25%. So it is through the range. But yes, we have a target and tend to be overall and we tend to beat it.

Okay. So similar to your investments in redoing the suites in the unit?

Exactly.

Your next question comes from Mario Saric with Scotiabank.

Maybe coming back to the turnover, the 25%. Do you have any color in terms of how that's stratified amongst the average tenant lease duration? For example, what the turnover rate looks like within the portfolio for tenants that have been around for less than 3 or 5 years versus tenants that have been around a lot longer?

No, we don't. We don't have that breakdown for you, Mario. But it's a good question because I'm curious about it now. We can give you some thought, take a look at it.

Sure. Just curious anecdotally whether -- like whether you're seeing a disproportionate amount of that turnover in tenants that haven't been around too long, and therefore, impacting kind of the mark-to-market potential on turn in the portfolio.

Okay. We'll have to do some research at this end.

Yes. Mario, it's Nancy. I can probably just maybe add a little bit to that, not so much a length of the tenant, but what we're seeing is that we really saw a tightening of turnover in Halifax in late 2021. And what we're seeing over that -- what's turning is the markets that are higher than our average, right? So what you have in such a tight market that more of the affordable rent, we're seeing those people stay, right? There's less options. It's a very tight market. So September, October, November, December, we really saw a tightening here in Atlantic Canada, which regularly turned, but 30% to 33%, and that has come downwards. Ontario always did have more of that 10% to 15% -- sorry, sorry, 15% to 20%, 25% depending on the market turnover. So I wouldn't say I know today, but we can find at the length of the tenant. But I would say that, absolutely, the more affordable rents that we have are turning less.

Yes. And my only other comment that is quite apparent is that for the percentage of our units that would have a student because of all the universities that we have in our marketplaces. They would be typically no more than 2 years because they tend to come in after the first or second year and stay a couple of years and then they would sort of move on once they graduate. So that's fairly typical.

Okay. That all makes sense. Just maybe turning to -- on the development side. You noted a record $168 million of expected completions in '22. Do you have a sense of what type of FFO per unit growth, those completions can drive in '22 versus '23?

I think that the speed of lease up, of course, is going to be a big factor there. I think that the biggest impact from an FFO per unit perspective is going to be felt in 2023. I'd say, by Q4, I think we could -- we will likely see some positive impacts, but the first quarter or 2 will likely not be positive from an FFO because of our interest expense on that. But -- so I think 2023 is when you can count for the big [indiscernible] ones that are just coming on it.

But again, to add another element of color to it. I mentioned $1.7 million was created in FFO last year on the 3 developments that we finished and leased up. This year, they'll do about $3 million in FFO.

Okay. My last question, just in terms of the IFRS fair value gain during the quarter is pretty strong at $66 million. Even better considering that your IFRS cap rate didn't really change very much quarter-over-quarter, Q4 versus Q3. So presumably, it was driven by higher expected NOI. Going forward, what would be some of the underlying assumptions that drove kind of higher expected structural NOI going forward relative to prior quarter?

As always, looking at the rent growth opportunities, revisiting what -- with the tightening of the market, they can see reflecting what's really happening out there so from a top line growth perspective. And on the expense side, I mean, we do expect those, of course, to grow. But just like we're seeing, we expect positive NOI growth. I think it's more driven by the top line growth expectations.

Your next question comes from Joanne Chen with BMO.

Maybe just sticking on the development front. I guess, just kind of how are you guys approaching the pressure on perhaps some of the development repositioning costs due to inflation? Do you think that's going to ease over the near term?

In terms of development costs?

The question was about repositioning of our average cost.

As well, I guess, costs on both your development pipeline as well as some of the repositioning efforts that you guys have in mind?

Again, for the ones that we're finishing up this year, essentially everything was fixed and really the increased pricing is just more of a delay relative to whether it's labor in the last few months of COVID or we're waiting around for building inspectors to show up and give us the final approval. There's a little bit of a lag from a -- or increase because of the lag of getting it finished. The new projects that we're -- we believe we're going to be starting this year. Again, we go in and we fix the pricing of about 80% of the cost with fixed-price contracts and therefore, locking in essentially most of the cost, and we still have the ability to review what we're going to be achieving on rents and the growth rate in 2 or 3 years' time.

And on the repositionings, we would see that general inflation of about 5% is what we're looking at, and we think it will make its way through the repositionings as well.

Got it. Okay. Now that's helpful. And I guess, I think we touched upon this earlier, but in terms of the rising property taxes, you did note that New Brunswick did grow up by 23%. But could you kind of talk to what you're thinking about some of the other regions [indiscernible] Nova Scotia or Ontario. Do you think that you're going to see similar hikes in terms of property taxes?

We wouldn't expect those kinds of increases in other provinces. So I'd say Ontario because the assessments are flat, that, that will be a much more moderate increase. And then Nova Scotia, I'd say, we're expecting somewhere closer to 5% to 6% increase in Nova Scotia, so...

Yes. [indiscernible] around 3% and the New Brunswick situation, it's a little bit [ fluid ] relative to -- that was the estimate -- the first assessments that we received with those numbers, and there is still talk relative to there might be something happening there in terms of the final dollar amount for this year.

Got it. Okay. And maybe just switching gears on the acquisitions front. Obviously, very busy for you guys. But just kind of your target of over $150 million of acquisitions. Could you talk to which markets right now you guys would be the most focused on? Would that be Ontario still? And how should we be thinking -- sorry, go ahead.

Go ahead.

Just kind of -- just add-on to my question. The question is that how should we be thinking about -- obviously, you guys have a lot of liquidity, but just kind of how should we be thinking about the funding of that? And whether there's any capital recycling opportunities within your current portfolio.

Yes. I mean the -- again, it's an interesting and I would say that the first 6 weeks of the year, the level of opportunities has increased right across the country. There's a lot of stuff that's being marketed or talked about that's coming to market. For us, it's about hitting sort of deals and opportunities that sort of fit into our sort of main strategy. Ontario is still a big focus for us to build on the Kitchener, Waterloo area. It's a priority, and we see opportunities there. And then on West, Alberta is full of them. It's just a matter of what really is going to work long term. That market, I think the economy there is turning around. I mean within the paper this morning that they're going to have a surplus this year at the provincial level. And there's lots of really interesting opportunities in Southern BC in the island. So those are the key areas. And I think part of your other question was recycling current assets. We are looking at a number of properties that we might recycle if we can get our price. And that's part of the program as well.

Your next question comes from Matt Kornack with National Bank Financial.

Just a quick follow-up on the property tax front. Can you speak to how iterative that process is? Like it sounds like New Brunswick is a unique circumstance, but do you often kind of contest these property tax increases? And how successful are you in contesting them historically?

I mean, it's almost -- it's -- it goes without saying that when you get these, if there's any ones that are relatively high versus the other ones you would appeal it. So as a normal course business, we're appealing assessments basically in every province. This 1 is a little bit unique where New Brunswick where they did this, and there's been a lot of sort of like calls into the government pressing this. Our tenant association up there has been the lead on this. And I think the government is listening. So what will they do? I don't know. But the discussion is ongoing, and we'll see.

Fair enough. And then this is probably one for Nancy, and I don't know if you have the numbers in front of you, but the rent increases on renewal turnover and repositioning were presented on an annual basis. I don't think I saw the quarterly numbers, but do you have those in front of you? Or could you kind of give a directional sense as to how they would be versus the annual figures, it looked like throughout the course of the year, there was a bit of an incremental increase in each of those categories.

So I think they're quarterly just presented in the MD&A, but I can follow up with the actual numbers. I think they're just charted and not quarterly and not that number [ explicitly ] said. So I can follow up with that for you, Matt.

Your next question comes from Jimmy Shan with RBC Capital Markets.

Just to circle back on the turnover comments as it relates to the -- to your rental program. So if more affordable units are turning less, and I don't know if it's a fair assumption, but I would assume that the more affordable units is where you possibly can see higher ROIs. So is it fair to assume that this 13% that you achieved last year were sort of tilted more towards the, as you call them, the lower opportunity sets. Is that fair?

No. You know what, Jimmy, I would say that, that's not -- it doesn't run that way. So for us, it's -- when we do the increase, we do it throughout the portfolio, and it's surprising that every sector has the opportunity, and then we would increase the rent on a relative basis, right? So on the lower units, yes, you don't invest the $28,000 there necessarily, some number lower perhaps, just you're trying to find your place in the market, you want to meet the market. So they move in each of the segments proportionately.

I see. So they move in proportion in terms of percentages whether you're in affordable or not. Okay. And then you mentioned, I think, that the downtime has improved. And I was just kind of curious as to what is it that you're doing to optimize the downtime on the rentals?

So we're going to a more standardized design. So with materials, for example, in terms of the flooring we're putting in. We've worked with our contractors longer, and they get to know our buildings. So we're more efficient that way. That helps. In terms of ordering, it was a hard year in '21 to get all the materials that we needed. But we had a number of long orders on specialty appliances, for example, we're able to address those. So it's a consistent approach that is helping making it work for us. And it's -- we've been at it now. This program is probably -- it is going into its seventh year. So we're -- we haven't figured out.

Okay. And then just last for me, just to comment on the acquisition market. I think, Phil, you mentioned in Edmonton, there are lots of them. I was curious as to kind of what are you seeing in terms of appetite for product and kind of the depth of bids that you're seeing in that market?

Well, the appetite is it just continues to increase in terms of the number of people looking for opportunities in this sort of -- in our space and I mentioned this to our board yesterday. The one new trend that I've seen right across Canada is that now apartment buildings in GTA are being marketed as a redevelopment play for multifamily, meaning that even if it's an 80 or 150-unit building, the density could probably take 2x to 3x that and they kind of want to sell it on the future upside of the land as opposed to even the income of an apartment building, whereas the trend has been retail to multifamily -- vacant land to multifamily. Now it's multifamily to more multifamily.

And are people paying up for that?

I don't know. [ We can ].

Your next question comes from Mike Markidis with Desjardins.

A couple of questions on my end. First off, with the same-property NOI target of 2% to 3% unless I missed it, I'm not sure if you gave any indication of where you'd expect the top line growth and the OpEx inflation. If you could give a little bit more color on that, that would be great.

For top line growth with that. I'd say 3.5% to 4%, maybe a little bit above 4%. We'll be working hard to get that.

On the top line side? Okay.

On the top line, yes. On the top line, yes.

Okay. Great. Just with respect to your lower leverage target, I know you've been moving towards lower debt to fair value slowly over time. On the chart, your debt did normalize. Debt to EBITDA has been trending higher. So I guess 2-part question there. What's been driving that higher is the first point. And then secondly, do you expect that, that will reverse over the course of the next little while as you move towards the lower debt to fair value.

I do think that we are even just the deleveraging we just did. It's helping us move that down. I think part of what drives it up a bit, too, is low cap rate environment when we're acquiring that, that has an impact. And especially as we put the equity in the ground early on our development as we complete those, I mean essentially the last half is 100% debt. So as -- we're completing those. So as more of those get completed as well, and we start to see the income of those, those 2 things are going to help. And as we continue to grow that NOI every year, that's also going to help. So I think that we have the opportunity to bring that down.

Okay. That makes sense. And then last one here. Maybe, Phil, I know you take a very -- you take a long-term approach to the business and your geographical diversification targets. I was just curious to get your thoughts given the election that we have and maybe some of the political events that are happening in Ontario. In the short term, has that lessened your appetite to invest in Ontario? Or is it a nonevent in your opinion?

Well, I mean, the -- what governments can do, you cannot -- you can never say it's a nonevent. But reality is with the population in Ontario, it continues to grow. It will see the largest percentage of the new Canadians that come into the country. And I was -- again, I had it yesterday, I was looking at it, but it was a report on GTA last year of the number of multifamily rental units that was delivered to the GTA. And that number -- and again, don't quote me, but it was surprisingly low for the size of the city in the urban area. So again, what you have is the backdrop of very favorable fundamentals for the multifamily apartment business. And again, I think that if we know what the rules are and they're consistent, then we'll be able to make a very good living being in the multifamily business long term.

Okay. And then does that -- I guess, to restate my question, are you -- in the short term until you see the election outcome? Are you less inclined to invest in Ontario over the next several months or is it not a factor?

No. I'm not [indiscernible].

Your next question comes from David Chrystal with Echelon.

Just looking at rising fuel and utility costs, are there any green investments that may not have made sense before that are starting to look a little more appealing and our existing investments and projects you had been looking at and had in the pipeline, are returns on those looking better in this environment?

The answer is yes. I mean it's a function of how fast we can roll those out. But again, it's the -- the overall principle is reduce the consumption of all these expenses in terms of your energy cost, whether it's water, whether it's electricity. And so we've got a program and we will continue to sort of move ahead with that.

So we would have done 40 boiler upgrades this year that will save us $80,000 a year, which is great and then 320 tons of greenhouse gas emissions as well. So what we like in particular is when we do these energy conversions that affect consumption, so we can use less water and less electricity and less fuel, that's the best way to go. So yes, when we're making those investments, we do think forward and we know that there's going to be pressure on electricity rates. There's pressure on commodities for the fuel. So we're making our investments today with the long-term implications. Meanwhile, we're also doing what we should be doing on the ESG side and helping to mitigate those gas emissions.

And adding, the growing cost of carbon every year too really augments that return as well.

Okay. And I mean, you've got a greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 15%. Do you have any similar target across kind of all utilities, water savings, electrical and fuel utilization or consumption and would that be front-end loaded? Or how would you look at timing on those?

Yes. So publicly, we have just a greenhouse gas target, but that ties right into the energy consumption. And we are also focusing on water and waste. All these things are tracked, we submit [indiscernible] submission along with others and all that sort of consumption now is reviewed. It has -- we have a whole inventory on that and it's measured. So we're focused on all those things. It goes hand-in-hand with reducing costs, reducing consumption and reducing greenhouse gas, but water and waste is also on our mind.

Your next question comes from Brad Sturges with Raymond James.

Just a couple of quick questions here. Just to go back to your comments there quickly on capital recycling. It sounds pretty opportunistic at this stage. Just curious if you could give a little bit more color on, I guess, the quantum of what could be potentially under review and how we should think about that if you were to execute.

You know what? I think we'll save that for another day, the answer.

Okay. And then, on the acquisition environment, obviously, as you suggested, it's pretty active. Is the opportunity still mainly a one-off asset opportunities? Or are you seeing opportunities for small portfolios, for example?

There are opportunities for midsize, like up to 2,000 units across the country that I'm aware of, in the 1,000-unit range and then they're down to the single property of whether they're 50 or 300 units. There's a lot of product.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Dean Wilkinson with CIBC.

Phil, perhaps. When you look at the landscape that's in front of you, you look at the rate environment, it strikes me that the MHC business is just something that's becoming more and more favorable. Are there either development or acquisition opportunities for MHC, I mean, the spreads are just so much wider, like is there anything out there to go after?

We've been looking. It's another sort of area of renewed focus in the last year or so. Last year, it would have been described as very hard to get new product for your thought in terms of buying it from the manufacturers. We are working hard with our manufacturers in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to get more product. And it's interesting that for all the looking that we are doing, it's no different than the apartment business where on a per unit or per pad basis, what was the pricing years ago is a lot higher now. But depending on the market, so has the rent increased. And I think we're -- as you -- based on your question sort of alluded to, there's now -- we're looking at where there are opportunities to go build a new community, understanding that the -- at one time, the cost service put -- inroads in the infrastructure would have been 30,000, it's probably [indiscernible] between 60,000 to 70,000 now. It's starting to make really good economic sense and the profit on homes has increased quite a bit. So overall, very affordable. But I think in the years to come, it's going to be another area of focus for us.

Great. I heard a rumor they're not building any more land. So it makes sense.

Thank you.

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

I would like to thank everybody for participating today. and we look forward to our next analyst call, which will be May 4 to talk and review our first quarter of 2022. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day.