Kitron ASA (KP5.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Kitron's Capital Markets Presentation. I'm Peter Nilsson, CEO of the Kitron Group. It's a pleasure to see so many of you here today. And also welcome to customers and suppliers. Your companies shape the backbone of the capability we all depend on. The theme of today is scaling resilience. Scaling resilience means that as Kitron grows, we get stronger and more predictable. Each step we take, every new capacity, every new program or new tool reinforces the entire system, allowing us to scale without compromising reliability, quality or financial performance. Today, we will show you how harmonized systems, more capacity and competitiveness demonstrates scaling resilience. Now let's take a look at our agenda. And really, before I start that, I'd like to commend the press release we just got out this morning just before the meeting started here today, which was a new order for follow-on production of a product we launched back in, I believe, it was September, the press release for EUR 100 million. This one is a follow-on order for that. It's for next year, it's for EUR 55 million. And we're really happy that we've received this. It demonstrates again our ability to scale very quickly and help our customers be successful. Today's program is structured to give you a clear picture of where we stand, how we're growing and what lies ahead. I'll start with a brief introduction to Kitron and how we positioned ourselves for scalable, profitable production and growth in high reliability markets. Hasse will then walk you through our commercial and sector outlook, where we see opportunities across connectivity, electrification, industry and medical devices, and how our market access continues to expand. Hans Petter will take over with an update on Defense/Aerospace, our largest and fastest-growing segment, highlighting key programs, customers and our European and transatlantic footprint. Rickard will follow, taking us deep into our latest acquisition, DeltaNordic, and the amazing opportunities we see. After that, Stian will present how operational excellence and AI are transforming how we run our factories, driving cost savings, speed and smarter decision-making across the group. Cathrin will then guide us through our financial performance and outlook for 2025 and 2026, focusing on margin development, cash generation and investment priorities. And finally, I'll return to summarize the key messages of the day before we open up for questions and discussion. So with that, let's get started. And once again, thank you for joining us. Let's start with our business. Kitron was founded more than 60 years ago in Silsand, Norway, close to the current Norwegian operations. Kitron's name comes from combining Silsand or Kilsund and Electronics to form Kitron. Today, Kitron is a Scandinavian EMS company with a global presence, but that doesn't quite capture everything we do. We support the entire product life cycle from R&D support to design optimization, industrialization, sourcing and to high reliability manufacturing following with test, logistics, services. And we operate in 5 sectors. Currently, Defense and Aerospace is the fastest-growing sector and strategically most critical. The balance between the different market sectors help us stay current on developing technologies and drive scale. Our mindset is predictable execution, engineering depth and the ability to scale complex systems fast. Let's take a look at our operations. After the DeltaNordic's acquisition, we operate 13 plants across 11 countries with more than 3,200 employees. Our model is global capacity with local execution, which means we can meet offset and security of supply and localization requirements. For OEMs looking for multisite redundancy, transatlantic presence and a secure European base, Kitron is a strong fit. Let's review what sets Kitron apart. Our standout strength is our One Kitron approach. We operate on common IT platforms, common processes and common production equipment platforms. This gives us speed. We can shift work packages across borders in days, not months. We are heavily certified Cyber, Defense, Medical and Aerospace, and we invest continuously in secure operations and digital traceability. When the customers scale, we scale with them predictably. Now Kitron has more than 10 years of proven execution. In the last decade, we've transformed the company. Revenue from EUR 230 million to EUR 720 million, almost 3x. EBIT margin from 3.5% to close to 9%, and that's world-class in our industry. We grew by adding capacity, greenfields in Poland and Malaysia, multiple site expansions across Europe, the U.S. and Asia, and targeted acquisitions. But in the end, one signal beats all others. Customers stay. They scale with us and they keep giving us more. And that's the clearest proof that the model works. After this brief introduction to Kitron and how we positioned ourselves for scalable and resilient growth, I'd like to hand over to Hasse. He'll walk you through our commercial strategy, how each of our market sectors is developing and how we're winning new business and where. We'll see how demand evolves into 2026 and beyond. So Hasse, welcome up.

Thank you, Peter. So good morning, everyone, and thank you again for joining us and showing interest in our business. From a macro perspective, across all market sectors, demand in our key markets, so the Nordics and U.S., have shown strength and resilience. And we see that Europe is set to recover during '26. The recovery has already started and is underway, especially in the connectivity sector and clear strengthening of the sentiment is visible in the industrial sector. Our strategic focus is new partnerships with global OEMs and upcoming stars, supporting sovereignty capability building, expanding our platforms through selective platform acquisitions, and our current growth path is closely tied to the defense investment cycle, which is now accelerating across Europe. And we are, to be honest, very excited about and have high expectations for that development. Based on the current market outlook and our current momentum, we have set ourselves ambitious but yet realistic growth targets for the coming years. Our position, we sit in the mid space with high complexity, high reliability requirements and medium volumes, exactly where complex products scales. Supply chains and manufacturing are often regionalized. Sales are strongly characterized by repetitive business, which is continuously renewed by onboarding new generations of products. Kitron's customers are often market leaders in their business or upcoming stars within their field. The relationship with our customers is based on a solid and a long-term foundation, which is based on trust and high performance. Let me walk you through each of our market sectors and how they contribute to the Kitron midterm growth. Starting with connectivity. We expect a 10% to 20% annual growth driven by sensors, optical networks, cyber -- sorry, encrypted communication and data acquisition applications. This is a scale-driven business, and we win because we highly automate, have high utilization, and our ability to take in new products to production quickly. Our application knowledge and track record give us a strong competitive position in this sector. In electrification, we target 5% to 10% annual growth. Power storage, grid updates and energy transformation continues to expand as we see the global need for modernizing energy systems. As this market normalizes after the greentech correction, we are supporting our customers with complex electronics and large system builds. Our ability to scale and deliver reliably is a key differentiator. Industry also offers a 5% to 10% annual growth in the coming years, driven mainly by industrial automation, robotics and infrastructure investments. Here, cost competitiveness is essential, and we deliver through strong purchasing power, automation, rapid flexibility in our demand management. Capabilities from the Defense sector flow into the industrial sector, especially in complex electronics and system integration. Medical devices grows at 3% to 7% per year. This is a stable sector with long lifetime products and high regulatory requirements. We focus on laboratory equipment, diagnostics and digital morphology. Our strategy remains to strengthen our capabilities and customer relationships, but we also expect targeted M&A or carve-outs from customers to accelerate our position in this sector. Finally, Defense and Aerospace. It remains our strongest engine, as Peter was mentioning, with over 20% annual growth, but Hans Petter will elaborate further on that in the next part of the presentation. Across all segments, the theme is consistent. We scale where scale matters. We specialize where complexity matters and leverage our global footprint, automation, deep industrial expertise to stay ahead. When we look a couple of years ahead, our ambition is clear. Kitron aims to reach EUR 1.5 billion of annual revenue, while maintaining above 9% EBIT and a return on operating capital above 25%. This is not just a financial target. It reflects how our business model is scaling. The foundation is already in place, a record order backlog, a strong Defense and Aerospace pipeline, expanded capacity in Norway, Sweden and Poland and Malaysia, and a solid momentum in the nondefense sectors as the market is normalizing. We deliver profitable growth today with above EUR 700 million in 2025 revenue, and we see a clear path towards the EUR 1.5 billion mark through a combination of organic growth and strategic M&As. Time line will, of course, depend on continuous buildup of capacity in the Defense sector with our customers, overall market recovery and the pace of consolidation opportunities that we at Kitron choose to pursue. Scaling, efficiency and return discipline remains the core of our strategy. In short, the next phase for Kitron is about turning our resilience and sector strength into profitable, sustainable growth. So returning to what is really driving the growth in Kitron right now? There's no question that Defense and Aerospace is our main engine. Over the past years, we have seen record order intake, confirmed again this morning, new long-term contracts on existing and new programs, unprecedented ramp-up across multiple sites. This segment is growing very fast, but it also demands precision, compliance and scalability. No one knows more about this area than our own, Hans Petter Thomassen, who is leading our Nordic and North American operations and who is also driving forward our programs for the Defense. Hans Petter, over to you to give us an update on where we are and what is coming in the defense sector.

Thank you, Hasse, and good morning, everyone. I will share some views on how we see the defense market evolving and what that translates into for Kitron in the near and medium term. Fundamentally, the backdrop and the drivers of the defense market are the same as they have been for the prior 3 years. However, there is a distinct change in terms of how the geopolitical landscape is now shaping the political agenda and the corresponding defense budgets and acquisition plans. European NATO countries have defined a path and a time line to build a credible European deterrence posture. 2025 through '27, we're seeing accelerated spending priorities of strategic assets. By 2030, there is an ambition to build the industrial base and incorporate joint procurement, and by 2035, achieve a 5% GDP spend target and a fully credible deterrence posture. So as we see it, we are now at the beginning of an investment super cycle. NATO countries are on track for gearing up defense budgets close to 3.5% and above. Civilian defense infrastructure resilience and cyber readiness will add to this scope. Close to 80% of European equipment needs were purchased outside of EU in 2023. In 2025, we saw a rapid change in regional spend. And in '25, European defense companies outpaced European -- no, sorry, U.S. companies on growth. For the last 3 years, the defense spend has been very much conflict-driven support for the Ukrainian war effort. What we're starting to see now is the effect of the Europe both supporting Ukraine and transforming the rise in GDP spend to a tangible long-term armament acquisition plan. So in the near term, we now see large platform orders related to naval capacities, air surveillance systems, air defense. NATO rearmament also incorporates new technology introduced into the market. Kitron is well positioned to serve customers across multiple platforms, sites and regions. We see a 30% in 2025 and a more than 20% annualized potential through 2030. Over the last year, Kitron has focused on qualifying and engaging our entire European and U.S. footprint in the defense manufacturing. Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Czech, Lithuania and U.S., all have established presence in this market. Comparing Q3 numbers, Defense revenue is up year-on-year 82%, and order backlog is up more than 100%. So in short, what I said a couple of years ago, the ambition from the 2023 NATO industry for more faster everywhere has now transformed into budgets that are up sharply, time lines that have been pulled forward, priorities that have shifted towards high-intensity industrial scale war fighting and rebuilding the European defense industrial base. So taking a look at Kitron's strategic position in the defense market. This has evolved over time. We have decades of experience operating in this Defense sector, interacting with prime OEMs and subprime OEMs combined with a strategic vision aligned with what is required of a defense contractor that has yielded very strong sustainable partnerships with leading OEMs. We have established management protocols, security framework fully compliant with all the defense contracting requirements, both in Europe and in the U.S. Strategic geographic expansions of factory locations enables Kitron to efficiently serve leading OEMs across the transatlantic sphere and support rapid multisite scaling of programs. So Kitron projects now a significant growth. The revenue outlook we present here is based on existing customer base, their forecasts, their order backlog, where Kitron is currently a qualified supplier in the program. Added to that, we have also incorporated new customers and program in the qualification phase where we have a clear line of sight on products and volumes. The revenue projection obviously does not predict the total available market, nor does it incorporate leads. In summary, defense is difficult. Entry barriers are high. Kitron have established a European and U.S. footprint fully qualified for defense manufacturing. For the OEMs, this translates to lower program risk, faster time to field, and that is precisely why Kitron is valuable. So digging a bit deeper into the details. Kitron has, over time, built application knowledge in a broad range of systems and platforms. These technologies are key elements of defense capabilities and building blocks of Europe's next-generation defense capability. Over the past year, we have successfully entered into the new tech space of unmanned systems and countermeasure systems. This outlook is based on customers we're already doing business with. And the demand for unmanned systems, specifically in countermeasure systems are currently very much conflict driven. However, shortly, these assets will be an integrated part of every military capacity in every NATO country. Short term through 2026, the growth is very oriented towards support of Ukraine and high priority assets for national capacities. Though from '26 and onwards, we see a surge effect of scaling European defense capability is materializing by scaling primarily of land and naval forces. Our current outlook for the defense sector projects a 21% CAGR over the next 5-year period. Combat vehicles alone and guidance control systems project well over 30%. We will continue to invest in capacity and capability, balancing defense and other market sectors for scale. So before we move on, I want to take a moment to highlight an important addition to the Kitron family. As you know, earlier this year, we announced the acquisition of DeltaNordic, a company with strong capabilities in high reliability electronics power system and industrial applications. DeltaNordic has a long track record of serving Nordic and international OEMs with high-quality products and their expertise in system assemblies and customized solution complements Kitron's offering exceptionally well. They strengthen our footprint in Sweden, broaden our customer base and bring a team with deep engineering and manufacturing know-how. Leading that team is Rickard, who together with his team has been instrumental in building a DeltaNordic culture, customer relationships and operational strength. We are very pleased to have him and his colleagues on board, and we see strong opportunities for growth together. So with that, I'll hand it over to Rickard, who will take us through DeltaNordic, their capabilities and how we are planning to integrate their business into the Kitron Group. Thank you.

Thank you, Hans Petter. Yes, I'm happy to be here today to give you a short introduction to DeltaNordic. I would start by saying it has been very, very well received within DeltaNordic that we will be acquired by Kitron, and we look forward to be part of the Kitron Group. We share the Nordic roots. We both focus on high cost-of-failure segments, and we are committed to profitable growth. And together, combining the strength of both companies, we can leverage and we can unlock new opportunities, and we can secure the growth that we have in front of us. So DeltaNordic was founded in Sweden in 1949, and we established in China in 2012. We are a provider of robust electronics and electric systems for harsh environments like marine, military, mining, construction, and we service our customers through the whole product life cycle like Kitron is doing. The turnover for 2025 will be around EUR 45 million. We have a high revenue visibility driven by a large share of repeat business from long-term customers, mainly in the Defense segment. The Defense segment is the largest segment for us, and we are awarded several programs where we will deliver high volumes over several years. The 3-year revenue outlook is exceeding EUR 300 million at this point. Let's look at the segments where we operate. We have chosen to focus on 4 segments. In the Defense segment, we are well established with BAE Systems Hägglunds since over 30 years, and we deliver a big scope of electronics and electric systems. We have also recently been awarded business with another big OEM in this segment, and we expect to increase our outlook continuously in the Defense segment as we understand more on how the new NATO target will materialize. We have not yet factored in any effect of that in our projection. In the Mining and Construction segment, we have experienced a very high demand in the mining part due to the mineral prices development recently. But on the construction side, we have seen a little bit softer demand, and that is due to the low activity in Infrastructure and Building. But we see a recovery in the 2026 forecasting for construction. So we see it's coming back for next year. The Industry segment is a segment where we have most customers and it's also the segment where we invest a lot in new sales resources to grow organically. And our ambition is to outperform competitors and grow significantly faster than the underlying segment growth. Infrastructure is the smallest segment for us today, but we believe this will also benefit from the new NATO target, and we are already now in discussions at an advanced stage with many new customers in the Infrastructure segment. So what is it that we deliver to our customers? So we divide our business into 3 parts. We call it power, automation and systems. Power is typically bigger electric cabinets for power substations, electric distribution control and motor starters. The automation part is robust box builds like operator panels in vehicles and machines and remote controls and signal distribution boxes. And in the third part, which is the systems business, we build complete finished products, and that is normally quite large units, could typically be for energy storage, process control systems and also data measurement and collection devices. So why is DeltaNordic an attractive addition to Kitron? Well, first of all, we bring 75 years of industrial experience in this field. We have mission-critical components serving high cost-of-failure applications, especially for harsh environments. That's our really specialization that we bring that competence into Kitron. We are a trusted long-term partner with a low customer churn. So we are appreciated over time for what we deliver. We have a high revenue visibility. So we bring a very extensive good order book into Kitron, especially in the defense side, land vehicles. And we have a scalable operating model, so we are ready for growth. And that concludes my short introduction to DeltaNordic. And as you have heard from me and also Hans Petter, Defense and Aerospace is expected to grow significantly over time. But growth is alone not enough. To deliver reliably at scale, we need world-class execution. So this is where Kitron's operational excellence AI initiative comes in, and these programs are transforming how Kitron plan, produce and scale across all sites, ensuring that Kitron stays efficient and competitive as volume rise. So to tell you more about this, I will hand over to Chief Technology Officer, Stian Haugen.

So thank you, Rickard. Since stepping on to the Capital Markets Day stage for the first time, it is a privilege to present what truly matters to us. Let me start with the backbone of our next growth cycle, our unified operating model. Every Kitron site runs the same equipment strategy. The same ERP, the same digital toolbox and the same performance system. Every employee has access to the same level of training and experience with advanced manufacturing challenges. This creates opportunities for workforce mobility, a principle we constantly leverage and production volumes scale across multiple sites. That's what allows us to move programs across borders, scale volumes quickly and keep quality stable. Investors ask, does scale dilute margin? At Kitron, it's the opposite. Automation and AI creates operating leverage as volumes rise. Over the last years, we have completed more than 1,500 operational excellence projects. Throughput is up 10%. Inventory days are down 20%, and these gains appear in EBIT every single quarter. AI will be embedded in scheduling, procurement and predictive maintenance. AI will support rapid product development, prototyping, design for manufacturing and production line simulation and setup, all necessary to support hyperscaling. We expect to see 15% faster changeovers, 30% less scrap and 10% more output with the same OpEx base. Operational excellence is deeply rooted in the company's core values. We are building Industry 4.0 into every new facility, robotized handling, predictive quality, automated testing and real-time analytics. We will see lights out capable pilot lines by 2027. These capabilities translate directly into EBIT. OE improvement, 10% per year and failure rates approaching Six Sigma. By compressing cycle times and reducing WIP, our cash generation strengthens even as we grow. Capacity, resilience and speed. These are our priorities as defense demand accelerates and other market sector starts to grow. New capacity in Sweden and Poland is online and a major site opens in Norway in 2026. We have expansion potential in Poland with multiple up to 15,000 square meter sites, ensuring that we can follow our customers' long-term plans. DeltaNordic adds regional presence in the Stockholm region and Northern Sweden. Because our operating model is standardized, each new site strengthens margin rather than diluting it. We can move people, processes and programs seamlessly, enabling through more with the same. The result, Kitron has the capacity, capability and operational discipline to support a journey towards EUR 1 billion and beyond without compromising profitability. With new capacity in the Nordics and Poland, we see no capacity constraints. We can grow without growing costs in the same proportion. Operational excellence and AI are all about making us faster, more consistent and more scalable. And that's already showing in our financial performance. As we continue to grow, maintaining strong margins, solid cash flow and disciplined investment is what turns efficiency into shareholder value. To take us through the financial outlook and our targets for 2025 and 2026, I'll hand over to our CFO, Cathrin Nylander.

Thank you, Stian. Our financial framework is built around 5 key goals that ensure both growth and resilience. First, revenue. We target around 10% organic growth over a business cycle with M&A providing additional upside. We're seeing that balance today as Defense and Aerospace drive strong top line momentum while other sectors gradually recover. Second, profitability. Our goal is to have an EBIT percentage of about 9%. That margin expansion is underpinned by operational efficiency, standardization and our AI and OpEx programs. Even in a period of capacity investment, we continue to deliver solid underlying profitability. Third, return on operating capital, consistently above 25%, that reflects the quality of our earnings and disciplined capital use. It's one of the strongest ROOC levels in our peer group. Fourth, cash flow. We aim to convert 80% of EBITDA into cash. Our working capital efficiency programs are progressing well. And as inventories normalize, we expect continued strong cash generation. Finally, our balance sheet strength, maintaining net interest-bearing debt below 2.5x EBITDA ensures flexibility to fund both organic and acquisitive growth. Together, these metrics create a sustainable platform, predictable growth, solid margins, strong cash flow and balance sheet capacity to capture new opportunities. For 2025, we expect to be on or exceed our set targets. Moving on to finances. Our financial strength means that we are a low risk predictable partner. Our low debt leverage supports a strong balance sheet, ready for expansion. We fund organic growth ourselves and deploy capital towards new capabilities in M&A. Our dividend policy is annual dividend of 20% to 60% of the company's consolidated net income. Free cash flow. Here, we show both the quarterly free cash flow development and the outlook for the next 2 years. Starting on the left, you see the quarterly pattern through '24 and '25. Free cash flow improved steadily after the softer third quarter in '24, driven by normalizing inventories and more predictable customer deliveries. By Q3 2025, we see a significant step up to around EUR 42 million, reflecting both improved profitability and tighter working capital discipline. On the right, we show the full year comparison. Free cash flow increased from EUR 17 million in '23 to EUR 43 million, and we expect a further strong improvement in 2025, supported by higher margins, continued optimization of working capital and relatively low CapEx levels. For 2026, the outlook remains solid. The figure shown includes DeltaNordic's operational contribution, but excludes the acquisition payment, giving a clean view of the ongoing cash generation. Overall, the trajectory demonstrates that Kitron's growth translates directly into stronger cash flow, supporting our ability to invest in capacity, absorb acquisitions and maintain a disciplined balance sheet. For 2025, our outlook remains strong. We expect revenue between EUR 700 million and EUR 740 million with EBIT in the range of EUR 59 million to EUR 66 million. Operationally, we anticipate EUR 80 million to EUR 90 million in operating cash flow, supported by improved profitability and disciplined working capital. Leverage is expected to be below 1, ROOC above 35%, and a cash conversion cycle at approximately 60 days. Looking ahead to '26, we see continued top line expansion, as capacity ramps up and new defense programs scale. Our target is EUR 845 million to EUR 943 million in revenue, with EBIT between EUR 77 million and EUR 93 million, a meaningful step-up in operating performance. Cash generation remains robust. Again, in the EUR 80 million to EUR 90 million range, leverage stays below 1x, and ROOC continues to be at 35% or higher, reflecting the quality of our earnings and capital discipline. The cash conversion cycle remains stable also that at around 60 days. Altogether, this outlook underlines that Kitron is entering a period of profitable growth, supported by strong demand, operational efficiency and disciplined financial model. Now back to you, Peter, for some key takeaways.

Thank you, Cathrin, and thanks to the rest of the team also. Let me close with a few clear messages. First, Kitron relies on its 5 market sectors for technology development, business cycle diversity and stability. Second, Europe is entering a long intense investment cycle in defense. The countries that scale the fastest and the most predictably will set the pace for the entire alliance. Third, manufacturing and electronics have become a strategic bottleneck. Without secure, high reliability manufacturing and supply chain, no country can deliver modern platforms at the scale and speed required. Fourth, this is exactly where Kitron is the strongest. We have the secure sites, the certifications, the track record and the operational discipline, and we know how to scale across borders when customers need it. Fifth, we're financially strong and unified, 1 IT platform, 1 operational model, 1 global footprint. That means we can move people, competence in production between countries quickly and safely. And finally, we see a huge opportunity for deeper collaboration with our customers. Together, we can build the manufacturing backbone that Europe needs and deserves, resilient, scalable, and sovereign. Our 2026 targets reflect some of the opportunities we see in the market. There are further upsides. Currently, our 2026 outlook is revenues between EUR 855 million and EUR 943 million, EBIT between EUR 77 million and EUR 93 million. Thank you for your attention. Give us a minute to reorganize and we'll start our Q&A session. Thanks.

All right. I'll be the moderator here. We have some online questions coming in, but we'll start off with questions here in the room. So please wait for the microphone.

Martine from Nordea Markets. I have several questions, if it's okay. So I think I'll just go one by one. The first one is considering your order that just came in, how much of that approximately is included in your 2026 guidance?

40%.

About 40%?

About 40% of that specific order.

Great. And also like considering your overall forecast, where do you see the most like risk on the upside and the downside considering both I saw, for example, the unmanned vehicles that is considerably lifted from the last time. And you also have the NATO orders coming in that I understand is not included in the DeltaNordic outlook. But you also are lowering, for example, your electrification forecast a little bit. And I also want to like get a little bit more color on how much of your DeltaNordic customers do you see like potential to gain a larger share of orders coming from their customers since you have a larger scale to offer? A long question, but...

Let's start with the last one. And really, the business development, and Hasse and his whole business development team are visiting DeltaNordic on Monday next week, I believe, both sites in Stockholm and up in Kolsvik also, for that purpose of looking at and really showing the business development people, these are the capabilities, so they can go back and go into the field and start looking for opportunities with confidence, being able to sell new capabilities. And that's what they'll see when they see those sites and they see the products that are being built there. It's difficult to set an estimate on what that will be. But I think it's going to provide opportunities for DeltaNordic and for Kitron.

There has been several cases throughout the last couple of years where we have basically declined to quote for business, which falls directly into the heart of what DeltaNordic is doing. So I personally think there's quite a lot of opportunities there. And if I then continue on the unmanned systems, I think you're on to something, because you can say the decision-making and the technology development within that sector is much faster than what we see in our Defense business. So the opportunities there is, I would say, quite big, but also, to a certain degree, unpredictable, because something could happen that we did not know about yesterday, could happen not that many months, weeks into the future. So that's also, as Peter is saying, we are only building in a relatively small part of what we believe could be out there before it actually transforms into real orders. So we are quite conservative.

If I can just stop you there. For example, the Norway is considering to have like a fast tracking of the drone line in next year. Is that like included in your forecast? Because I think that you will be a preferred supplier into that.

Let's put it that way. We're looking into the opportunity. It has not come to a point where we can say that this is going to be a reality. But adding to Hasse's about the unmanned systems, we are sort of in 2 layers of that value chain on the front end, building the complete systems, but more than anything, I'm guessing about half of our revenue in that is more system components that can be integrated in a multitude of these applications. So when you talk about drones, there is a an extremely broad range of them. However, many of them use the same communication and other sensor technology where we have a strong presence.

And the same brain.

Yes, same brain.

It doesn't matter who exactly as the, what should you say, drone provider wins, we will still have a chunk of that business.

Well, it could be an unmanned land system also.

Or sea based, right, in the marine.

But if you just took and combine what is out there public of what Ukraine is targeting for their defense capabilities, the U.S. and what Europeans are indicating, you're talking drones in tens of millions. So yes, even though there are hundreds of providers, if you divide the tens of millions with hundreds of providers, there are still big chunks out there. But it is a volatile market.

And our position is quite strong because it is super important in Norway, yes. But as you can imagine, the Polish guys are also extremely focused. We have a site in Poland. The people in Lithuania, of course, extremely focused also due to interruptions they have had. Denmark, the same. So we are, you can say, in those, what we call our home markets, we are very relevant for that business also going forward.

Great. Very good answer. If I can just do one more and then I can pass it on. It's on the medical side that you say that you are considering a carve-out, like in which subsectors would you see that interesting?

Something within instrumentation, medical instrumentation or a complete medical product. You're looking for the high-level assembly, where a device manufacturer is doing this themselves, and for cost reason or efficiency reason or strategic focus, decides to have a partner do the manufacturing for them. So if we see an opportunity like that, we'll pursue that opportunity, but we don't have anything in the pipeline on that yet.

Yes. And to my understanding, you often also end up with that as a customer.

Yes, yes. Obviously, right.

I'll go quickly then. Olav from Pareto. I just want to drill into your 2026 guidance a little bit. And you're saying EUR 43 million from combat vehicles. I'm assuming this is 100% from DeltaNordic?

As on date maybe.

Okay. But still, if you subtract that and we assume that a large chunk of it is from DeltaNordic, your Kitron stand-alone guidance for 2026 looks quite low compared to where your backlog sits currently. And then if we add in this EUR 55 million order today, there seems to be a big discrepancy there. So I just want to understand, is there some ramp-up that's taking some time? Or is there something else that can explain this?

I think Kitron stand-alone number is what, EUR 835 million, I believe?

Yes.

All right. So from EUR 720 million, that's a 16% growth with not high growth in nondefense market sectors. That means defense is pulling that growth with very strong growth, I think over 20% defense growth for the full year. But there is some sort of -- there's a little bit of hesitancy or a little bit of conservatism for us, where we see things coming in quickly. Like we had this morning, we sort of were working on, hoping on that, that would be a continuation. But until you have that order in hand, you're not going to go out and talk about it.

And just to specify, what we announced this morning does not fall into combat vehicles, but unmanned systems.

Yes, go ahead. Hans Petter also.

Yes. And just to add a little bit related to defense. If you're talking about the more traditional defense platforms, very few of them are scalable or possible to ramp up in anything less than 6 months. So it goes with -- we need the order backlog in order to bring it into our guidance.

Øystein Lodgaard, ABG. Just to follow up on the previously asked questions. On the unmanned vehicles, you only have a growth of -- I think it was EUR 34 million from '25 to '26, but you have these 2 announced orders, can you say. Is that because there are some other major projects that are kind of in '25, but not in '26? Or is this just caution?

It's the other way around really. It's the other way around. So we've got 2 major customers right now, 2 major customers right now. Next year, we'll have 5 major customers. So there are products that are starting. But again, you don't know -- with new defense tech, you don't know who's going to be the winner in the next-generation product. So it could be somebody else, or it could be our customer who's developing new systems and launching those and we'll get orders for them.

And the technology landscape for that kind of application is significantly different than what we do in or see in traditional defense industry. It is moving more like a consumer from a technology point of view.

But again, right, there's a vast difference, because these products are sort of hyperscale. You're going from 0 to delivering 10 trucks a day of product in a matter of 3 months with continuous product development every single week, sometimes every day with battlefield information coming in and the product transforming and changing out. That's why some parts are being 3D printed for some of these products to be able to scale that. And to be able to scale that level when product will take approximately 5 labor hours to build a product, talking of hundreds and hundreds of people to deliver thousands and thousands per week at a massive scale, you start up, you get it up and running. And once you have that capability, that's a sellable capability across the board in the market. Not many can do that. Many are talking about it. I've yet to see anybody out there doing it.

And a question on your kind of production flexibility. How dependent are you on these new capacity increases versus how quickly could you ramp up production at your existing facilities if you get new large orders like the one you announced this morning?

You want to say hours?

I mean, as we have also touched on during our presentation, what we have gone through this year is, as Peter is also saying, building up or strengthening our capabilities to take exactly that flexibility. And because we are who we are, we take very, very fast decision based on real business needs. So I would say what we have gone through and what we will continue into '26 is to take all those needed decisions on the site where it's needed, and we can do that extremely fast. I'm not going to say hours or days or weeks, but it is extremely fast. And as Peter is saying, we have shown that we can do this, and that is also why a lot of companies within that industry is coming and asking us for our support.

This is also one of the reasons why I talked about this One Kitron program and the harmonized systems across all the factories. It makes us very scalable. We can transfer programs from factory to factory. We can also scale several factories at once if we need a muscle for that, or we can move people and they don't need training.

We've put together a project team of the best of the best across the different factories to help a new program launching in Poland, for example.

Doing subassemblies on one side and finished products on another or helping each other across and so on. And we are doing that today, and we will continue doing that in the future also.

Some, what, 4 months from signing to moving into a new building in Sweden, completely modern 6,000 square meter factory. From signing to moving in, in Poland, which were 3,000 -- 2 weeks for 3,500 more square meters to support extra business, we didn't even know that we had won. We thought we'd won one little piece, it turns out that there was massively more.

And we did not know that in Q2 this year. So it's something that has evolved like this.

Then you have to -- I mean, you have to put a strong team together. Otherwise, you will not succeed in this. And they have to speak the same language in the form of engineering and how we do business. They can be Norwegians, they can be Swedes, they can be from Malaysia, they can be from Lithuania, but they all work together and all understand how we do business.

I also have to add that the footprint needed doesn't have very special requirements for the unmanned vehicles. We can move into basically logistical barn and use it from day 1. We don't need to do much.

But when it comes to larger new platforms from the primes, that's where we're looking at, can we reach an agreement with them? And then we're talking in 2027, 2028. So that's where we're seeing, do we need another facility in Poland, for example. And in Poland, we have the option to -- we own the land, so we can build another four 15,000 square meter facilities if need be, right? And it can get done in about 10 months.

And it's in a special economic zone already.

So we have flexibility.

Yes, okay. Just Sindre Sørbye from Arctic Asset Management. Three questions. First on the D&A outlook. First, is this EUR 55 million order this morning that's reflected in the outlook, right?

No. As we said earlier, roughly 40% is factored into the outlook.

Yes. But in the long-term or medium-term revenue forecast, you knew you got that order when you made this material, right? So it's reflected there?

40%...

We received it this morning.

We received it this morning. It's very on and off. We don't really know.

Okay. So if we were having your CMD next week, you would have increased that?

A little bit. Yes.

And then firming up the numbers, you can see.

We will see in our Q1 report in February where we are and if we will adjust our '26 outlook or not, in the Q4 report.

And we will, of course, keep informing. When things are firming up in our order backlog and so on, we'll keep informing openly about that.

But this was actually an order that was delivered during the night, a purchase order. This is not a signed agreement, this is a purchase order.

I think it's important to distinguish between the volatile new tech business and the more traditional defense. The traditional defense operates with completely different time lines.

And also in this outlook, I think you said that it's existing customers, existing products, but also new products with existing customers. And then you have this -- say that it's also a business where we have a clear...

Clear line of sight on volumes.

Exactly.

But some of them don't have clear line of sight, some of our customers don't have very clear, because they win or they lose. That's the nature of that new tech business is that either you win big or you lose big, for those customers. So they are extremely hard to predict. That's why we're a bit conservative when we predict them going forward.

We are 0 on that kind of...

But we don't speculate on 2026. We try to refrain from speculation on '26.

Yes. But I'm also thinking about the more medium term '27, '28, '29. So for instance, I know we've been working a lot with potential naval programs? Probably nothing firm in 2026, but a great likelihood probably for more long-term revenues?

I would say probably '28 and onwards. If you took the Norwegian frigate acquisition, the industrial participation plan is due to be ready next year when there is an actual contract signing. There has only been a down select up until now. So I wouldn't expect to see any serious volumes from that until '27 or '28.

Okay. So we have included nothing of that in...

There we have -- again, we have included everything where we see -- the frigate itself is basically a done deal. They have established a value chain. Where we see opportunity in that space is on several subsystems and our key interest is in those nearshore standard vessels, which will be equipped with modular containers with different capabilities on board. That's where we see our sweet spot going forward. And that's not even out on the RFI yet. We can only speculate what the opportunity is.

Yes. clarifying. Finally, on your thinking about -- or we will assess expansion in Poland in '27. And obviously, it makes sense, especially in this kind of defense environment that expanding in Poland. And then you have the factory in Czech Republic. At the same time, looking longer term, a lot of your, let's say, peers in this industry and also in other industries say that labor costs in Poland really have skyrocketed. So they're relocating to Romania, Bulgaria, other countries. So how do you think about that? Because I mean, you're a very cost-conscious company. So even that high concession could be acceptable for a defense customer, it might not be so acceptable if you were to tender into, let's say, other industries.

From a risk perspective, if we talk about 2 of our larger customers, right, they prefer Poland, or Scandinavia, from a risk perspective.

In defense.

In defense.

But it could even also be in infrastructure that these kind of more geopolitical factors into the decision-making. And then I will also say, I mean, one of the important parts of what Stian was saying is that we are constantly running a lot of operational excellence projects exactly to balance the increase of labor. But we have also to remember that a lot of our products is also quite intensive on components and not so much on the labor part. But automation, new processes, operational excellence is how we live every day, and that is how we basically balance those.

Direct labor costs in our Polish, Lithuania and Czech facilities is fairly similar. We're talking about 4%, 5% of product cost being direct labor. Of course, then there's indirect labor and those costs are higher, but the blue-collar labor cost has not moved significantly.

And I think you also have to consider that the 2 words, security of supply and sovereign capabilities is coming into play to a much greater extent, not that cost doesn't matter, because cost is a worry in all long-term acquisition plans in the European countries. However, security of supply, sovereign capabilities is also...

Access to energy.

Access to energy. So there are new aspects that are considered now that were previously not that strong in the decision process.

Finally, finally, several of your customers have actually announced plans or also in the step of implementing production in Ukraine itself. If you were asked to, would you consider setting up a supporting plant for that kind of production?

We would consider it.

I will, though, also say that what we see is actually the opposite of what you're stating is that after the change in legislation, a lot of younger, especially men are leaving Ukraine, which is weakening the manufacturing capabilities in Ukraine, at least short term. So we actually see a lot of Ukrainian companies looking opposite, so wanting to move their production outside of Ukraine. So it's a balance that we follow all the time. And of course, we are very open. But again, it's also something about security, as Hans Petter was saying, and that's a several step -- or several factors in that play a role.

Just look at what's happening now with our Norwegian Defense Minister just announced that we're considering to produce Ukrainian drones in Norway. And the backdrop there is that it's hard to do, let's say, what we do producing electronics that needs a relatively controlled environment to have a decent outcome. It's very, very hard for them to do. So we see the opposite. The components we deliver are more relevant for production outside of Ukraine to be delivered into Ukraine.

Let's go to some questions online. And staying with the focus on defense and aerospace. There's a question here. How do you view capacity constraints in the defense and aerospace value chain? Is there a risk that competitors will build material capacity negatively impacting supply/demand on capacity within the sector, although demand is accelerating materially?

Shall I take a stab at it?

Yes, go ahead.

Okay. If we look at the broad picture, if you take electronics and components as a whole, going back 2, 3 years when we had a component allocation crisis, we have to acknowledge that defense is about less than 5% of the total global market. So as I told some of the defense OEMs, like it and not guys, you don't have leverage in this market. So it very much depends on where the commercial markets are going. That said, though, yes, there we see more and more nations enforcing or putting in place other export control measures in order to fight a trade war and to have restrictions on value chains. So that is coming into play. That is, in many, many cases, offset by very, very long-term orders and very long-term material security. And the whole industry is focusing much, much more on finding regional value chains that are available also in a war time situation. Even the newcomers now are starting to focus on that. Although they are currently probably a lot China influenced, they are focusing in that direction.

So I come back to our One Kitron approach, right? So it's easy for Kitron to build a new factory, because we know how to build a factory, know how to put processes in place. And basically, it will be a clone of whatever we're doing everywhere else, right? Most EMSs in Europe are either very small, EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million, EUR 60 million, EUR 75 million top line, and many are under EUR 10 million even. We don't consider those a real threat because they're not playing in the same league at all. They don't have that capability to scale. Even larger EMSs that have done a lot of acquisitions over the past years have not integrated their acquisitions in the way Kitron does. So it's difficult for them to scale. They may have a factory somewhere in a country that's excellent on building these types of products, but that plant does not have the capability to scale, and they can't hire people where they are at. And there's sort of no corporate umbrella overhead that can help them do that. So that's, I think, the main point with us when it comes to scaling and Kitron's one operating model policy.

And if I can just comment on the component part of that question. Of course, that is a consideration. But back to as Hans Petter is saying that the defense is not the biggest consumer on anything. But that is the kind of learning that we have also taken throughout our hyperscaling in this year, and that is also a key reason that our customers or new customers is coming to us, because we are sitting on that knowledge, and that is not knowledge that you obtain overnight. It has taken a lot of blood, sweat and tears to get to that point, and it is now starting to pay off with dividend.

That said, there's enough business to go around.

Yes.

But what Hasse just mentioned is an extremely important part of our value proposition to the OEMs that not only can we put the product together, but we can highlight risk in the value chain and support offsetting that risk.

Good. We'll do a couple of more questions relating to defense. How do end customers prioritize price versus other KPIs in their decisions in this sector? Is it fair to say that these customers are, on average, less price sensitive?

I think -- I mean, as you also saw, we split it into different sectors within defense or different subcategories. It very much differs between those different categories, because it also depends on how often is your technology shifting, what is the life cycle of your product and so on. So I think it's not something that we can give a straight answer to as a whole group. It very differs between the different type of applications that we call defense.

In general, though, in general, I would say that price matters less to customers in defense than it does, for example, in connectivity, right? So yes, it matters, but it matters less. What matters more is ability to scale.

And quality and reliability and compliance and all those things.

And to add to it, though, on the larger systems, we work with complete open cost transparency. We are audited left, right and center, and we sit for months with government auditors explaining our cost structure. So yes, it is competed in a market.

One sort of longer-term question relating to this. But since you grow so much within defense, is there a risk that you have to move into lower-margin business to fill capacity as the defense and aerospace growth turns more moderate from 2030 onwards, so longer term?

It's difficult to predict the long-term market, 2030 and beyond, and how other market sectors will evolve during that time frame. But we're going to continue pursuing business in all the other market sectors also. And we rarely go into any high-volume business. We rarely go into any low-margin business, and that's our policy to continue. Always when we accept any sort of risk, we make sure that we have an appropriate customer prepayment and things like that sitting there on our balance sheet as a watchdog over any risk.

But over time, there's always an evaluation of what footprint you need. And if we need less, so you'll probably look into that investment or the investment in the future. We always try to think about how can we reduce cost in the future as well as how can we increase volume in the future. So I think it's part of...

Even in this scenario, right -- even in this scenario, when all of the different companies presented their budgets for 2026, and we've reviewed them and revised them, obviously, they also presented a downside recession type budget. So what happens if the market drops out 40% next year? How do we maintain profitability? What does that mean for you and your company and your factory? So we always do that also. So we prepare for the worst, plan for the best, hope for the best.

And when building infrastructure, let's say, the factory in Norway, a big consideration is, okay, what's the alternative use of this building if there was a downturn 10, 15 years from now. So we try to create facilities that are not so adapted to our special needs, that they can actually have an alternative use.

I think important also is to acknowledge that it will be a big aftermarket business beyond 2028 and forward that needs to be considered as well when you evaluate the potential of the defense.

I think on that keynote, I think considering we're in the business of electronics, if you take a frigate or an F-35 platform, they are out there and lasting for 30, 40 years. But the sensor systems, the electronics on board is probably going to be built at least 4x by the end of that life cycle.

So if they buy 1,000 F-35s, we'll supply 4,000 units over the lifetime of that aircraft.

And I would also like to mention that even though we are speaking a lot about defense and aerospace, and we do that for a reason because we are in the middle of that super cycle, from a business development point of view, our focus is actually much broader and maybe even stronger on non-defense, because one of the key foundations of why we continue to keep financial strength is that we are playing in not just 1 segment, but in 5 segments. So developing those other 4 segments while segment is growing is super important. And you can say 4, 5 years back, we were talking a lot about electrification. When we were talking about electrification, back then, we were in business development already looking at what is the next thing. We need to try to work not just on one thing specifically, but much broader to make sure that we also keep our strength when, I would say, the defense market normalizes, because it will normalize in a much higher level than it was 5 years ago. But yes, there will be a normalization period. Whenever that will be, we don't know if that's in 2028 or '30 or '35, but we need to, of course, plan into the future from a business development point of view in nondefense business.

You're underestimating though the effect of the additional 1.5% of GDP spend for civilian resilience. It's not only going to be roads and buildings. It's going to be a broad spectrum of infrastructure where energy and our other sectors come into play.

Encrypted communication and so on. Yes.

Following up about the other sectors, we have a question here. Can you give some color on the changes to midterm growth outlook and why it's been raised in connectivity and medical devices, but lowered in electrification? I'm assuming that's compared to the presentation last year.

I can speak to the lowering of electrification. That sector for us is divided into 2 distinct differences. One is infrastructure part, the large grid systems, those are still on a growth trajectory. What is the more consumer and, let's say, EV charging and similar, that is still down. So let's say, more than 50% of our market is on a strong growth trajectory. We do see signs of recovery on the consumer end. And it has also somewhat shifted in terms of drivers. We're going back 3 years, it was all greentech and transformation to non-fossil fuel that was driving it. Now we see AI coming into play, really driving power consumption and not greentech.

But then, I mean, these are large infrastructure projects. So sometimes there's a delay in the rollout of a project, and that will affect whatever we deliver in a certain quarter or a certain 6-month period. So there can be some fluctuation. But as you say, right, the underlying demand continues to be strong. Do you want to comment on connectivity and medical?

Yes. If we start with medical, as we also said or I said during the presentation, then, of course, the life cycle of the products in medical is very, very long. So you can say, right now, we have seen some of the products that we have been producing going end of life. And while we are building up new ones, it takes time. So that's more an outlook for the future. But we are spending quite a lot of resources in building even more and broader capabilities. And then, of course, hoping that we will find the right M&A that fits into that capability building is also on the agenda. And then on the connectivity part, those are maybe the fastest technology-driven products that we have outside of unmanned vehicles. So therefore, we can see that the underlying demand in that market is constantly high and still increasing, because the need of new technologies in that segment is needed as the market and expectations and demand in the market is changing.

And coming back to medical, we're actually growing, and that's actually because we have taken over production from a customer that we didn't have before, which is actually producing quite some growth going forward. And it's basically the difference between the more...

Super interesting product, bioprinting of -- 3D printing of biomatter. And we're building those complete units in our plant in Sweden.

So without that, that would be flat, but that is increasing and making it grow.

Yes, we won more in medical, definitely, no doubt.

We have one specifically for DeltaNordic. How certain is DeltaNordic's revenue forecast? Is good revenue visibility to be interpreted as certain or merely as an estimate?

Should I comment on that one? As I mentioned on the presentation, we are awarded these programs. So what we have factored into the projection is the volumes expected on those programs coming years. So it's correlating to a vehicle plan with our customer, and we are awarded a single source for those projects. Then in the projects, the orders will come continuously over the years from the customer. And also adding on to that, we have also secured material for those deliveries several years ahead. So that could also be a sign of that it's pretty firm.

I would say that it works in a similar manner to our legacy defense customers. We recognize the patterns on how we work and coordinate and the message is given and what you can see and what you can expect. And that will go for the defense, and you can tell a little bit more on your industrial part, maybe?

Yes. No, but the order book for industrial and the mining and construction, that's forecasting from those customers. That is very similar to how Kitron is operating as well with 6 and 12 months forecasts. And then we measure the forecast accuracy over time and so on. So we feel confident that the projection is solid.

Then we have one about capacity, both at Kitron and competitors. You referenced growth without constraints. You seem very comfortable that you can deliver the anticipated growth without any meaningful constraints. Do you have a feel for how this applies for other players in the industry?

I'm not going to comment on our competitors. You can speculate by looking at some of the top line developments. Let me just put it out there, right? And there's a difference between doing bolt-on acquisition and doing platform acquisitions that you integrate.

And of course, we are focused on competitors when we are bidding for business and so on. But in our daily life, we are focused on our customers and how we develop with our customers. That is what is core to us. So of course, they are on the map out there. But for us, we do the right thing together with our customers, and that's how we...

You listen to your customer. If your customer says, it's too expensive to be in Germany. There's no solid recurring supply that you can depend on when it comes to electricity. If your customer tells you that, and this is the largest defense manufacturer in Europe, and they say, one division says I want to be in Poland, the other division says I want to be in Scandinavia. I want to be in Scandinavia for security purposes. I want to be in Poland because it's close enough, and they have a strong defense development and the cost structure is more favorable and they have the energy, right? So those are the messages we're getting from the large, large customers.

All right. We have one here. Could you help us understand how much of the new business over the next years come from, one, existing customers versus new customers; and two, expanding on existing customer product lines versus growth on new product lines from existing customers?

That's your table there, Hans Petter.

I can't really give more information than we already have. I mean we have...

But the basis for that table and the growth we have is not new programs that we know nothing about.

That's all sunshine built into that basically. So...

It says there's a clear visibility to customers and programs. That's what it's based on.

Yes. But in defense, of course, we prefer and totally aligned with our customers that we cannot share specifics on how their programs are developing, who they are and so on. So that's also maybe an answer to that.

All right. Are there any more questions here?

One final one.

One final, just regarding on the capacity, because I remember you said like I think it was this spring or something you mentioned additional EUR 500 million in capacity in Europe and EUR 200 million in the U.S. And then I was just wondering how much of that is reflected in your slide about the additional capacity and how we should view that in your forecast now?

One learning, since I said that, is it depends on what type of product you're building. Are you doing final assembly of a complete product? And is that complete product then shipped with a multitude of other products that you buy in to deliver a complete system to your customer. The difference there can be 10x on footprint. And that's what we've seen with one of these latest projects that we ramped up. Also, the projection of we have EUR 500 million in immediate capacity in Europe, that we said last year and then reiterated in April, was based on us running 24/7 on that existing footprint, which is not something you want to be doing more than 6 months or 9 months or something like that. Beyond that, you really need to extend and expand if it's going to be consistent and continuing, so that you can go down to a 2 or 3-shift operation, which is more cost effective, but it also allows room, if something goes wrong, to catch up, right? If you're running 24/7 and something -- I mean, you don't get the component delivery where a test station goes down and you have to either replace it or repair it or you have to get an alternate supply source in and you lose a day, 3 days, a week, 10 days, you never catch up, which is out of the question, right? So you need to be able to catch up. And that's why you don't want to be running 24/7 consistently. But that's what that was based on that EUR 25 million. High-value products that are smaller, that sort of the normal Kitron type of product based on the footprint we had available and running 24/7. Now we see larger products and...

And you might say that the cost per footprint is a lot less now than what we anticipated before, because we can actually just move into existing facilities and do the final assembly of these products where we're actually growing quickly, which is with the unmanned vehicles basically. So there's a different look at it. And then you don't really see the rent cost coming in. It's too small.

I think that's it. Thank you to the audience for staying with us here today and for everybody online. Again, I'd like to thank our customers, our investors, our suppliers for the great job and your support. Thank you.