Klöckner & Co SE ($KCO)

Hello, everyone. This is Fabian Joseph from Investor Relations. Also on behalf of my entire team, I wish you a very warm welcome to our full year 2025 conference call. With me today are our CEO, Guido Kerkhoff; our CFO, Oliver Falk; and our CEO, Americas, John Ganem. They will guide you through the presentation. And afterwards, we are happy to take your questions. [Operator Instructions] With that, I'd like to hand over to you, Guido.

Yes. Thanks, Fabian, and welcome to our full year '25 conference call. Before I dive into the highlights of the past financial year '25, let me start with a brief and important update regarding the voluntary public takeover offer by Worthington Steel. As announced by Worthington Steel yesterday, the company has decided to adjust the terms of its offer. Specifically, Worthington Steel has lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to 57.5% and extended the offer period to March 26, 2026. We understand this step and consider it a logical and common procedure for further increasing transaction security. With the total number of shares currently secured by Worthington Steel, including acceptances and direct holdings standing at 56.92% as of yesterday. The transaction is now very close to reaching this new threshold. Please always keep in mind that the management shares, which account for around 0.5% will be tendered, but due to the quiet period, they can only be tendered from now on. I want to emphasize that this technical adjustment does not change the compelling strategic rationale for the business combination or the attractiveness of the offered price of EUR 11 in cash per Klöckner & Co share. Therefore, our Management Board and Supervisory Board of Klöckner & Co SE will perform a detailed review of the amended offer document and update their joint response statement in a timely manner, both remain convinced that the offer by Worthington Steel is in the best interest of the company and its stakeholders. All shareholders who have not yet tendered their shares now have time until March 26, 2026, 24 hours local time in Frankfurt online to do so. I will now begin with the financial highlights of the year. We have delivered a solid performance for the full year '25 despite tariff and trade-related uncertainties. Also, ForEx effects have negatively impacted our results. Despite the aforementioned difficult environment, we were able to grow our shipments on group level slightly to [ 4,500 to 8,000 ] tonnes. The slightly negative development in the Kloeckner Metals Europe segment was overcompensated by the continued strong performance in Kloeckner Metals Americas, driven by further market share gains. Sales came in at EUR 6.4 billion, a slight decrease year-over-year in both segments as well as on group level, largely price related. This development was a result of lower average price level over the year compared to the previous year as well as negative ForEx effects. We achieved a considerable increase in gross profit despite the volatile steel price development in full year 2025. Gross profit in the previous year have been heavily impacted by windfall losses caused by the substantial steel price correction over the course of '24, an effect that did not repeat itself in '25. The gross profit margin also improved considerably compared to the previous year. EBITDA before material special effects came in at EUR 171 million, a considerable increase year-over-year and a result within our guidance range for the fourth consecutive year. And as we guided, we achieved a positive operating cash flow. Full year '25 operating cash flow came in at EUR 110 million. Consequently and also positively affected by the proceeds from the 8 distribution sites in the U.S., we were able to considerably reduce our net financial debt year-over-year, reaching the lowest net financial debt level since Q2 2023. We will propose to the Annual General Meeting to pay a dividend payment of EUR 0.20 per share. This would be the fifth consecutive dividend to our shareholders, demonstrating that we are a steady and consistent dividend player throughout the cycle. Let's now have a look on our performance in Q4 '25 by segment. Our segment Kloeckner Metals Americas shipments increased slightly year-over-year Q4 '25, continuing the positive trend seen throughout the previous quarters of the full year '25. Therefore, volume was the highest ever achieved in the fourth quarter, which underscores the success of our North American growth strategy. However, due to the lower average price level year-over-year, sales in Q4 came in slightly below the previous year's quarter, further impacted by adverse ForEx effects. Prices remain volatile after the temporary repeats in Q2 '25. EBITDA before material special effects came in at EUR 19 million in Q4. In our segment Kloeckner Metals Europe, shipments increased slightly, while sales remained constant compared to the previous year's quarter. EBITDA before material special effects of segment Kloeckner Metals Europe was approximately breakeven, which is a considerable improvement compared to the last year's quarter and a constant development consistent to last quarter. This demonstrates that our consistent optimization efforts are continuing to pay off. In the recent month, we made important steps in our company development in the region DACH and North America. On January 15, we announced the intended divestment of the Becker Group in Germany. Prior to this, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of all strategic options. This will enable Becker to participate in an industry consolidation in Europe under new ownership, allowing us to place a sharper focus on higher value-added products and services. Becker delivered an improved performance in January and February this year, reflecting the solid foundation we've built together and demonstrating that the business is well positioned to accelerate its growth even further under new ownership. In Switzerland, we completed the acquisition of Locher Bewehrung to further strengthen our regional footprint. This step has enabled us to achieve efficiency gains by leveraging the asset base in the existing network. The acquisition was closed in December '25 and the integration process has already been completed. We continue to expand our production and processing footprint across North America with targeted investments that strengthen our higher value added and service center business. These investments ensure that we can meet growing customer demand with expanded production and processing capabilities. As you know, we're constructing a new aluminum flat rolled processing facility in Columbus, Mississippi, directly located at Aluminum Dynamics new production site. During the fourth quarter, we reached a milestone by breaking ground on the construction side. Building completion is planned for late Q4 '26 with equipment start-up expected in Q2 '27. By adding a dedicated cutting-edge aluminum processing facility, we can make the most of the NMM acquisition and accelerate our automotive growth in North America. In Paton, Iowa, we started a new heavy fabrication operation after agreeing to lease the former Bauer Built Manufacturing site by bringing the entire Bauer Built team into Klöckner and preserving their long-standing expertise in ensuring a seamless transition. The site significantly expands our heavy fabrication capability, including welding, assembly and complex finishing services. With this operation, we can better support agricultural and industrial customers who rely on advanced fabrication and large-scale production capacity. In Queretaro, Mexico, we're installing a new coil-fed Schuler laser blanking line to meet rising demand for aluminum blanking, especially from automotive customers. This line is being installed at our new facility and scheduled for commissioning in the second quarter of '26. The technology delivers superior consistency and cut quality compared to traditional blanking methods. Customer inquiries from automotive OEMs in Mexico are already increasing as the start-up approaches. Following these steps, we generated around 44% of our sales with [ HVAB ] when considering our group, excluding the 8 distribution sites in the U.S. that we sold. This business is responsible for the majority of our EBITDA, which clearly proves that we are on the right track with our strategy. Going forward, we will capitalize even more on our strong presence in North America and the DACH region and press ahead with our group strategy. With that, over to you, Oliver, for further financial insights.

Yes. Thank you. As Guido stated, the market environment continued to remain challenging in '25 with a volatile steel price development following the U.S. tariff announcement in February. Despite these steel price volatilities, coupled with the ongoing challenging macroeconomic environment, we achieved an EBITDA before material special effects of EUR 21 million in quarter 4, '25 and EUR 171 million in full year '25. The result within our guidance range. In addition, we delivered a significantly positive operating cash flow for the fourth year in a row. Solid results taking into account the macroeconomic environment we operated in. Although steel prices remain volatile, we are seeing an upward trend in the U.S. and Europe right now. This trend was already visible in quarter 4, '25 as well as in the first 2 months of Q1 '26 based on higher expected demand. We are confident to translate the positive pricing trend into strong operating results in quarter 1, '26 and beyond. In addition, we continue to leverage our digitalization and automation initiatives. The number of digital quotes increased by around 13% year-over-year in full year '25. Therefore, we continue to release salespeople for manual work related to quotes. Let's take a look at the development of our shipments, sales, gross profit and gross profit margin for the fourth quarter '25. Shipments increased slightly year-over-year, driven by a strong performance of both segments. Sales decreased slightly year-over-year due to the overall average price level and unfavorable FX effects despite the positive shipment development and came in at EUR 1.5 billion in quarter 4, '25. Gross profit came in at EUR 272 million in quarter 4 '25 after EUR 261 million in quarter 4 '24, a considerable increase year-over-year. Gross profit margin also increased by 17.6% to 18.6% year-over-year. We will now focus on the EBITDA development in the fourth quarter and in the full year '25. In quarter 4 '25, EBITDA before material special effects came in at EUR 21 million. In the fourth quarter, we recorded positive price and volume effects, adding up to a total of EUR 19 million year-over-year. OpEx in quarter 4, '25 were in total EUR 26 million higher year-over-year. In addition, we experienced negative year-over-year FX effects of EUR 3 million in quarter 4, '25. Material special effects mainly consisted of gains related to the divestment of our 8 distribution sites in the U.S., partly offset by restructuring costs coming to a net total of EUR 30 million for quarter 4, '25. For the full year '25, EBITDA before material special effects amounted to EUR 171 million. Over the year, we benefited from a positive volume effect of EUR 90 million and a positive price effect of EUR 89 million. The results of full year '24 were burdened by windfall losses related to steel price corrections that did not occur in '25. OpEx increased by EUR 65 million year-over-year. Further, we recorded negative FX effects of EUR 7 million, mainly resulting from U.S. translation. Lastly, material special effects came in negative at EUR 20 million with the non-quarter 4 impact primarily driven by the deconsolidation of our Brazilian entity and restructuring costs. We are now coming to cash flow and net debt development. In the full year '25, reported EBITDA was EUR 152 million. Further, we had a net working capital release of EUR 63 million. Taking into consideration interest, tax payment and other items totaling EUR 106 million, our cash flow from operating activities came in positive at EUR 110 million in full year '25. Including net CapEx of EUR 5 million, free cash flow was positive at EUR 105 million for the full year '25. This also includes the proceeds of EUR 96 million from the divestment of 8 U.S. distribution sites. Let's have a look on our net financial debt. Negative effects were visible for leasing and dividends. Leasing totaled an amount of EUR 71 million and are mainly related to the execution of our strategic projects, such as our on-campus partnership with Nucor in Brandenburg, Kentucky. Dividends, of course, EUR 20 million related to the dividend we paid to our shareholders in full year '25. Positive effects of EUR 57 million were visible for FX and other, including effects from divestments. Accordingly, our net financial debt decreased considerably year-over-year to EUR 709 million after EUR 780 million at the end of the previous year. This is the lowest level of net financial debt since quarter 2 '23. We will now focus on the group's financing. We continue to possess a diversified financing structure with credit facility of approximately EUR 1.3 billion, excluding leasing, we are very solidly positioned, including contractual terms and financial covenants. Overall, we maintain a total financial headroom of around EUR 0.8 billion. Net debt came in at EUR 709 million for the full year '25, a considerable decrease year-over year-end, as mentioned beforehand, the lowest level since Q2 '23. Further, leverage came down considerably and will continue to do so as we execute our strategy. I now hand over to John to have a closer look at our end markets in North America.

Thank you, Oliver. After a fairly challenging demand environment in 2025, we now expect a decent recovery in 2026 with North American real steel demand increasing by 1% to 2% compared to the prior year. Of course, there remains significant uncertainty related to the current conflict in the Middle East and continued unpredictable trade policy that can impact the outlook. Also critical for North America will be a positive outcome to the USMCA review, which is now underway. This would provide more clarity for all participants within the metal supply chain and may help kickstart many investments that are currently on hold, giving a potential boost to steel demand starting at some point in the second half of 2026. Now looking at the expected development in specific market segments. Construction activity is expected to recover with total building starts expected to improve between 1.5% and 2% in 2026. This is after both residential and nonresidential square footage contracted by approximately 3% in 2025. Lower mortgage rates could provide further upside on residential. Nonbuilding and infrastructure investments should continue to grow in 2026, albeit more moderately than they did last year, which saw these segments surge by more than 15%. Data centers as well as power and utilities should continue to lead the way for the next several years. Manufacturing activity, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing Index has expanded during the first 2 months of 2026. This is a very positive development considering this index indicated contraction for almost all of 2025. In line with this indication, after 2 consecutive years of negative growth, we now expect overall new orders for industrial and off-highway equipment to increase between 2% and 3% in 2026 with some variation depending on the specific segment. I would also note that current forecasts from critical large OEM customers are indicating even stronger growth rates heading into the second quarter of 2026. Trade policy clarity and lower interest rates could help these key steel consuming segments regain even more positive momentum as the year develops. Turning to Transportation. The Automotive segment has been the most impacted by changing trade policy as well as the removal of EV tax credits. This resulted in auto production declining by approximately 1% in 2025. For 2026, current forecasts indicate flat to slightly lower production in North America with Mexico recovering slightly and the U.S. potentially contracting modestly. On the defense shipbuilding front, activity remains positive and Klöckner's current defense programs are set to grow strongly with multiple large program commitments recently awarded. We also continue working closely with key mill partners to position ourselves strategically to support and benefit from what is expected to be a significant increase in defense shipbuilding investments over the next decade. Demand from appliance, HVAC and electrical, which are all key segments for KMC Americas were flat to down in 2025 as many companies work to reduce inventories and rebalance supply chains, especially over the second half of the year. The situation for 2026 is now expected to be fairly stable with production at key OEM customers normalizing at more consistent levels by the second quarter. Improving conditions in residential construction could provide some additional momentum in the second half of the year as well. Energy continued to be the strongest steel consuming segment in 2025, and this trend should continue in the current year. Power transmission growth will remain extremely strong in 2026, increasing by over 15% year-over-year after achieving a similar result in 2025. Modernizing and expanding the North American transmission infrastructure is imperative in order to support the significant forecasted increase in demand for electricity across North America. This is especially critical for data center investments. While renewable growth rates have come under pressure due to recent changes in government policy, we are still expecting modest growth again in 2026 of between 1% and 2%. So with that, I'll quickly summarize the North American outlook as follows. While risks and uncertainty remain, we are firmly optimistic when it comes to both steel demand and price -- market price fundamentals in 2026. Market cycles are setting up somewhat more favorably than the past 2 years. And as previously mentioned, a positive outcome on the USMCA review would provide some much needed clarity and further upside potential for North American steel demand. With that, I turn it back over to Guido to provide an update on Europe.

Thank you, John. In total, we expect real steel demand in Europe to increase by 1% to 2% in '26 compared to the previous year. However, it's too early to assess the economic consequences of the escalating war in Iran. Disruptions to trade and surging energy prices could add to global uncertainty with adverse effects to our key customer industries. Coming now to our sectors, starting with the construction industry. Overall, we expect the construction industry to have a slightly positive development in '26. Activity in the sector will be supported by elevated infrastructure spending while structural drivers such as pent-up demand also remain in place. Let's continue with manufacturing, machinery and mechanical engineering. Mechanical engineering is expected to grow slightly in '26, also supported by increased German infrastructure and defense spending. However, capacity limits, labor shortages, trade policy uncertainties and rising Asian competition will prevent a faster recovery. In the defense sector, we're seeing a surge in demand that considerably outpaces previous year's demand growth. We continue to benefit and capitalize from our active positioning in the sector by leveraging our capabilities and also our financial strength, providing a clear advantage over smaller competitors. Transportation -- let's first focus on automotive. The industry association expects a slight increase in '26, though absolute volumes will remain far below 2019 levels. Demand is expected to remain on rather low levels for as long as there is no significant improvement in the broader economic outlook, including global trade and consumer sentiment. Now shipbuilding. While the commercial segment in shipbuilding could face increased pressure due to economic uncertainty, we're well positioned in the gray ship sector to benefit from upcoming demand. Household and commercial appliances, a segment with marginal impact on our European business is expected to develop on a constant level in '26 as the EU-U.S. trade deal is expected to reduce uncertainty marginally. However, customer demand remains rather subdued and will restrain activity in the sector. Energy industry. The energy industry is expected to grow slightly, supported by ongoing electrification of transport and heating, which will provide structural support to electricity demand over the medium to long term. Let's now come to the financial outlook for the first quarter of this year and the full year '26. As John and I pointed out, we expect the macroeconomic environment to remain challenging, especially in Europe, for the current quarter, we expect a considerable increase of shipments and sales each quarter-over-quarter. EBITDA before material special effects in Q1 is expected to come in between EUR 20 million and EUR 60 million. For the full year '26, we forecast shipments and sales to develop on a constant level year-over-year. As you know, we closed the divestment of 8 U.S. distribution sites at the end of last year. We are therefore forecasting a constant development for the full year '26 without these locations. Consequently, sales are also expected to come in at a constant level. In total, we expect a strong EBITDA before material special effects in the full year '26 and a considerable increase year-over-year. Moreover, we also expect operating cash flow to come in significantly positive above full year '25 figures. We're now happy to answer your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Boris Bourdet, Kepler Cheuvreux.

Can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you.

Perfect. So the question would be maybe the first one on Iran. I've noticed that you consider it's a bit early to assess, but I would be interested in getting your thoughts on the potential impact on your clients and on your side, if any. That would be the first question. And then regarding the outlook. So you're building an outlook with volumes and sales pretty flat. So I was wondering how much of that is linked to the deconsolidation of your distribution sites? And what would be the underlying assumption? And regarding prices, obviously, U.S. prices have been moving up quite substantially as well as the European prices. So what could we expect as a positive -- we've seen that prices have been a positive contributor, a tailwind of EUR 89 million in '25 versus '24. So what would be the bridge on current prices for '26? And maybe a last one on Europe. Do you see -- you have elaborated on your expectations, but do you see early signs of rebound in demand with the CBAM and the coming new TRQ.

Yes. Well, let me start with Iran. As you know, we are largely supplying and I will start with the direct effect of us locally. So therefore, our direct impact that our supply chains will be affected, we don't foresee anything there. So we can continue. And I think within the steel supply chain overall for our suppliers, we don't foresee anything. Whether there will be any impact on our clients remains to be seen. And I think it's rather a question of how long the conflict will remain and the straight of will be closed. If not and oil prices will recover and customer demand will not that much be affected, that would be the ideal case. If it takes longer and uncertainties prevail, that could impact us. But so far, we don't see it and directly, there will be no impact. Now outlook, the flat -- the 8 sites, I mean, it was distribution business. Therefore, that was the 8 sites that was quite some revenue and some shipments that were affected. That's why in total, indeed, our guidance clearly is an increase that rather be above the 1.2% you see that we see in the market. And our current performance we've seen in Jan and February prove that. So that doesn't look too bad. The prices in the EU and in the U.S. lately as well are supportive of all that development and the increase in the demand that we see. Now how the second half will turn out, John has talked about USMCA, we have the Iran conflict. It's all a bit too early to really say how the second half will look like. That remains to be seen. But otherwise, underlying, I think we're more positive than we have been a quarter or 2 ago. So what we see is order intake and development of the business is organically better than last year structurally.

And the projects which we are ramping up right now in the U.S., like Brandenburg, Mexico...

They will be supporting in CBAM. And as you rightly mentioned, these things will help that especially here in Europe, we have continued support from that side that this might continue and we might have seen the trough now and see an increasing recovery. And not coming back to 2019 levels, but still recovery.

I would only add on the pricing front, with the divestment of the distribution sites, our portfolio is much more contractual in nature than it was previously. And I think that's somewhat -- it doesn't eliminate exposure to market price volatility, but it certainly mitigates it to a fair degree. So I think the current pricing environment is quite positive for our contract business into the second quarter and likely into the third quarter.

Okay. And may I ask another one. I don't know whether there are other people in the queue or not. Otherwise, I would -- just looking at the consensus because you provide guidance for the qualitative guidance in terms of you expect a considerable growth, which in your means more than 5%. So that lets a lot of options open. Consensus is currently at EUR 233 million. Are you comfortable with that level?

We would have to state that.

[Operator Instructions] There seems to be no further question at this time. So I hand back to Guido for some final remarks.

Yes. Thank you very much. And if there are additional questions that will come up, just don't hesitate to contact Fabian and his team. We're available for that. And thank you very much, and talk to you next time.