Knowit AB (publ) (KNOW) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Knowit Year Report 2023 Conference Call. I'm Vicki, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Per Wallentin, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, and a warm welcome to this presentation of our report for the fourth quarter 2023. We can take the next slide, please. As you said, my name is Per Wallentin. I'm the CEO of the company. And with me, I also have Marie Bjorklund, our CFO, who will take you through some numbers later on. We can take the next slide, please. And first, I would like to take you through some operational highlights during the quarter. As you probably know, the market challenges in Q2 and Q3 remains in Q4. We see longer sales cycles and softer demand in some areas. And during the fall, we have significantly intensified sales efforts, especially in areas with strong demand. The measures that we have implemented since Q2 2023, including cost control, reduction of staff and increased sales focus have a positive effect on the quarter. But just as important, this creates a platform for margin improvement long term, very important. In the quarter, we see utilization rates stabilizing as an effect of the implemented measures. However, they are still too low. And I think that the key for future success is to continue being agile and able to reallocate resources in areas where we see that the demand is high further on. We can take the next slide, please. Going into our business areas and our biggest business areas Knowit Solutions, we reported net sales of SEK 1,031 million for the quarter. This is a decline of 8.5%. The margin was 8.8%. This is a decrease compared to last year, but somewhat stronger if you compare to Q3 like-for-like. We see a positive margin development in Denmark, in Finland and in Norway, while Sweden remains challenging. We keep a high focus on cost reduction, reallocating resources. Utilization rates have been stabilized, but as at the whole of Knowit, they are still at a level that's too low. We can take the next slide and go into our digital agency, Knowit Experience, reporting sales of SEK 386 million for the quarter. This is a decrease of around 11%. The margin was 7.5%. And also here, we work to reduce costs and capacity to adjust our organization for a lower demand in this area. The impact -- and this is also impacting the margins short term, connected to layoffs, but we see a positive long-term impact. In Sweden, we have most difficult to utilize consultants, while in Denmark and Finland, it's actually improving. We see slight decrease in demand in utilization in Norway. And we are really pleased that we have signed a new frame agreement with Telenor as an exclusive partner for their brand strategy and identity just recently. We can take the next slide, going into our business area Connectivity, reporting SEK 275 million in the quarter, a margin of 11.3%. We continue to have a strong development in this business area. The market has been somewhat stronger in the area compared to the others. But still, we have a high priority to work on sales activities and inner efficiency to protect results in challenging markets. And as you saw probably in the report, our Polish operations delivered very strong results, thanks to their high ability to adapt to the market changes. We can take the next slide, please, and talk a little bit about our management consultants in Knowit Insight. Reported sales around SEK 247 million for the quarter and this is actually unchanged compared to Q4 2022. The margin was 9%. We see that the market is volatile with some clients increasing investments and other remain somewhat cautious. We optimized the organization and reduced costs in order to improve utilization and margin. We see a stable development in defense and cybersecurity. And we also see an increased demand for services related to sustainability, and that's very promising for the future. And with that going through our 4 business areas, you can take the next slide. I would like to hand over to Marie.

Well, thank you, Per. Next slide, please. Looking at the whole group quarterly figures, we delivered sales of approximately SEK 1.8 billion, decreased by 7.5%. And adjusted for FX effect, the organic growth was then minus 7.2%. We have, in the quarter, a negative net recruitment of around 120 for the group, and all 4 business areas are decreasing. This is influenced by our deliberate measures to slow down recruitment and adjust capacity. In the quarter, more than 90 employees have been dismissed. And as Per said, utilization has -- because of this stabilized but still on a too low level, so our focus is, of course, to improve utilization and increase the sales per FTE in 2024. EBITDA amounted to SEK 147.7 million for the quarter, a decrease compared to the same quarter last year. This leads to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.1% in the quarter. Last year, it was 9.1%. As we mentioned, this margin decrease is due to the slowdown in the market, a decrease in demand causing low utilization affecting several markets. And there, I would like to mention Sweden, in particular. We believe the market to have worsened during the fall, but we have mitigated a further drop in utilization, instead it has stabilized. We have not yet seen the full effects of the dismissals I mentioned, expecting to do so later in the first quarter of 2024. On another note, we are meeting price pressure on the market. However, our hourly rates increased compared to last year. So the negative growth of comparable figures is coming from our utilization. Reviews and capacity has been one measure to protect our margins, although I want to highlight that we are still recruiting in areas where we see good demand in and will continue to do so. Another measure is our cost cut program that we launched during the end of the second quarter and during Q4, we saved SEK 25 million compared to last year. The cost cuts are referring to conferences, travels, marketing events and post projects and more. Next slide, please. Summing up the full year of 2023, net sales amounted to SEK 7.1 billion, an increase by 4%. Adjusted EBITDA decreased compared to last year and amounted to SEK 498 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 7% compared to 8.9% in 2022. In 2023, we have agreed with around 260 employees that will or have already left the company. Following all these initiatives, we have one-off costs of around SEK 17 million in the fourth quarter and SEK 14 million in the third quarter relating primarily to staff reductions. A cost cut program that we launched end of Q3 has resulted in SEK 45 million in savings in total during H2, full focus on margins. Next slide, please. This slide shows our development over time and also on a rolling 12-month basis. Our adjusted EBITDA for the latest 12 months and, of course, also the full year 2023 is at SEK 498 million and revenues of SEK 7.1 billion leads to an EBITDA margin of 7%. 2023 has been a year of challenges in demand and utilization, and in connection to that, of course, our actions to improve margins. We mentioned cost savings and reduction of capacity, a work that we will benefit from for a long time to come. We also have increased our sales capacity and made a successful switch from recruiting to sales that has created a solid base for taking on 2024. Next slide, please. This is an overview of our net debt development. We have a SEK 500 million in used credit facility and Knowit has a total credit facility granted of SEK 1.050 billion. Future considerations have decreased since last quarter, mainly due to some revaluation of earnouts concerning krona. The last krona earnout will be settled during H1. Other liabilities, mostly leasing debt, amounts to SEK 542 million, and the amount had a small decrease since last quarter because of amortization. This totals a net debt of around SEK 950 million and divided with our EBITDA for 2023, we are at a leverage of 1.4. We still have a strong balance sheet and a good financial position. Also, this means that we are well within our financial targets, which is set not to exceed 2. Next slide, please. We have a solid platform and a strong position as a digitalization partner in the Nordic region. We have a broad footprint, which is strength in tougher times. And as you can see here, the share from the public sector remained stable compared to last year. And within this, we have an increase in the defense sector. On the other hand, we have parts of the public sector, where we know there's greater caution than previously, and competition is becoming harder there. We also have a good growth in the industry sector, driven by good demand. And all in all, clients remain focused on business-critical projects also in an economic downturn. And with that, I leave it to you, Per, to say some final words.

Thank you, Marie, and we can take the next slide. Well, to summarize, we present the quarter where we see that we have a stabilization trend from Q3 continues into Q4. The utilization rates are still too low, but we see that the implemented effects -- the implemented measures have an effect. Intensified sales, combined with prudent cost management is, of course, in focus right now. We are successful in allocating resources to areas where we have a high and strong demand. For example, defense industry and cybersecurity, and you can see that we grow in these areas, as Marie said, for example, that's the reason why we still have the size that we have in public sector, we grow there, et cetera, and also connected to Insight and the growth connected to cybersecurity. And I'm very proud of the work that we have done during the fall, both to mitigate the tougher market. In addition to that, we have used this mitigation to create a platform for future growth and margin improvement. Long term, I'm actually even more convinced that we have a platform for continuous growth and consolidation of this industry and the trends are with us connected to the changes in the environment with AI need for security and defense, et cetera. And last, of course, it's important to communicate that the Board proposes a dividend of SEK 5.2 per share to be paid in 2 occasions, SEK 2.60 each time. And with that, me and Marie are now open for questions.

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Daniel Djurberg, Handelsbanken.

Per and Marie, a few questions from me. First, if we look at Insight, I was quite impressed by the stability. As you mentioned, you have defense, cybersecurity, sustainability, et cetera. My question is you have some 580 FTEs in this segment. How hard is it to ramp in order to mix or change towards moving those 2 segments like the defense, cybersecurity, et cetera? And also, what your plans are and how to look at '24 for Insight?

It is actually quite hard to do that, but still we continue to work with that change. As you know, for example, to get into the defense industry as a management consultant, you need to know something about that industry and that takes time. And in addition to that, you need quite strong security clarifications as well. So it takes time. We work with it. It does cost money short term, but it's a long-term investment. And we are -- and this is quite interesting. If you look into Insight, we have some areas with slower speed, lower demand, but that is as mitigated by defense and cybersecurity as those 2 parts of Insight is growing bigger. And of course, we try to move people where it's possible and we'll continue to do that. And I think if you look into the defense industry, that is something, not only for Knowit, that's important because we will see that the need for people working with the defense industry with a tech focus. And as you probably know, FMV was out talking about this in Sweden, for example, [ in August ] industry a couple of weeks ago, that we see a shift now going into 2024, where FMV, the defense industry, et cetera, are more willing to help us move people into this area and make it easier to make that change. So I think that, that will actually happen during -- already during 2024. So it's going to be easier for us to change competencies one step at the time.

Interesting. And for our knowledge, of the 580 FTEs, how many ballpark is working with these segments, IT, defense and cybersecurity and sustainability, would you say is it 1/3 or something or...

A little bit less than 1/3, 25%, something like that.

Yes. Great. And may I also ask you on a little bit, you saw which is very good stabilization in utilization levels in Q4 you mentioned. If you could comment a little bit, obviously, we only see in January so far, but if you should expect the stabilization to continue and any comment [indiscernible].

It's hard to predict. The market is still on a quite low level. It's volatile. I think that the long-term trends that we talked about, both in -- actually, in Q2 and Q3 are still there. We see a slower demand in public sector. It hasn't changed yet. We are still performing the same speed in public sector, 39% of our revenue. But you have to bear in mind that, that is due to that we are growing in the defense area. For example, in Norway, we are slowing down a little bit in the public sector. But with that said, we have this big new frame agreement coming up for next year with the police in Norway, so we are happy with that. So that long-term trend is there. We, as many others, of course, hope for a midterm budget proposal from the government in Sweden and maybe Norway during this summer, and then we might get some more money into the sector and that money will probably -- in many areas, those monies will be used for digitalization. And then we see some slight lower demand in the industry sector. And I think that, that will continue during the year. So the long-term trends are still there. It's going to be a tough 2024. We have a good platform. But '24 will also open up some new opportunities as I see it.

Daniel, concerning your question about the utilization, I think we mentioned already in the third quarter that it was stabilizing just end of third quarter. So it has been stable for quite a while during Q4. And even though the market has -- as we see it become worse, the utilization has still been stable. So without like speculating in how the market will be during 2024, I think that we are very well prepared to handle a tough market, and we are agile to take actions and work on improvements even if the market should be hard in 2024.

Perfect. That's clear. And if I may, the last question, if you focus a little bit on Sweden, you mentioned there are some price pressure here and there, but quite stable. How should we think about -- we'll have a little bit of a salary hike of some 3%, 4% here in April. And if you compare this with what you expect to see from pricing overall, is it a hurdle? Or will it be -- take out each other more or less?

It's hard to say. I think it's important for our industry that we have had quite low increases in salaries in '23, and that will, of course, probably be the case in '24 as well. And due to that, I think that we will probably be able to mitigate salary increases with prices as we have a tail of price increases with us from 2023 into '24, and we have quite a few index regulations '23 to '24 as well. But with that said, I think it's going to be harder than ever because we will see some -- and we already see some price pressures in some areas. But I -- my bet is that we will be able to mitigate that.

The next question from Raymond Ke, Nordea.

2 questions from me, please. First one, if you could maybe provide a bit of color regarding how your customers these days when you talk to them, how they're reasoning around their digitalization projects compared to when you talk to them before the new year and after new year, if there's any difference or in terms of how the [ recent years ]?

No, it's -- we can't see any changes just before and after new year. But there are quite big differences in the different countries, and there are quite big differences compared to the different business areas and their focus. So of course, the big digitalization projects, for example, in Connectivity and also somewhat in Solutions that are in place and up and running, they are not stopped due to lower demand in the market. They just continue maybe on a lower level, and that's also the case actually in public sector. For example, if we work with some customer in public sector like Bolagsverket up in Sundsvall, they continue to work with their streams, but on a slower level. And when they get more money, hopefully, end of this year, they will increase. The tougher situation is actually in Experience. As they are a digital agency, they help their customer to increase sales and work with e-commerce and communication. That is something that have been affected quite a lot in the market connected to e-commerce. And it's also possible for our customers to stop some of those projects a little bit faster and then start them after half year or year again. So there is -- that's an area where we really have been working quite hard during this fall, and we need to continue to work strongly. But to be clear, there is not a crisis when we talk to our customers. It's a slower demand, and they talk with us about the future, they talk with us about what they are going to do when new technology lands in Sweden connected to AI, connected to new ways of working, et cetera. So there is quite a lot of interesting discussions connected to long-term digitalization together with the customers.

Got it. That was very helpful. And second question, just if you could maybe also provide a bit more color on specifically Connectivity, which is -- whose market is being described as being more tricky a bit, if you could elaborate a bit there?

I don't think that we have described it as more tricky. I think that it's been quite stable. There is quite a lot. Connectivity is mainly working with some of the big industry companies and their R&D departments. Almost all of those companies and those departments have continued to invest in long-term development of their products, and that's still the case. I think that it might be a little bit tougher during 2024, but it's been more stable during the fall.

There are no more questions from the phone at this time.

All right. See if we have some questions from the webcast then.

Yes. We have our first question from [indiscernible]. You previously discussed the possibility of an increase in the budget from municipalities in Sweden during the second half of 2024. Do you have any further insights or updates on this?

No, this is -- I mean, this is something that we think about, as I suppose that many of you think about, will there be extra money in some extra budgets in Sweden and Norway and Denmark and Finland. I think that the probability for that have increased since we talked last time.

Great. And then we have 2 questions from Tom Guinchard at Pareto Securities that I think we touched upon, but I'll read it anyway, and then we'll see if you have anything to add there, Per. What can we expect from the growth of prices and wages in 2024? And do you expect slower price development towards the public sector? You talked about this, but if there is anything else you want to add?

Yes. Of course, quite stable increase in salaries. So I think that, that will be the case as the market is tougher, and we have the agreement of around 3% in Sweden. And I think it's a little bit slower in the other countries as well. So it's going to be around that, probably a little bit more in our industry. And I think that if you look at the average prices for 2024 for Knowit, there is quite a lot of aspects to take care of as we talked about index regulations. We have a tailwind from that we have increased prices during 2023 that will help us in '24 as well, but we will see price pressure in new projects, et cetera. I think that we will see that in -- and we have already seen that during the fall in new frame agreements connected to public sector, especially in Sweden, but because we haven't seen that in Norway, actually. For example, the police frame agreement was higher priced than ever for us that we did win. So we will see that, but the average length of frame agreements in public sector is 4 or 5 years. So it will only be 20% that will be out for competition during 2024. And those will probably have lower prices, yes. But that will probably not affect the average price increase of Knowit during 2024.

Perfect. Well there are no more questions from the webcast.

All right. Thank you all for listening in and have a continuous good day. Thanks.

Thank you so much.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.