Koç Holding A.S. (KCHOL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantino, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Koç Holding conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the fourth quarter 2024 financial results. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Cansev Atak, IR Manager at Koç Holding. Ms. Atak, you may now proceed.

Thank you. Welcome and thank you for joining us today. This is Cansev, IR manager of Koç Holding. I have here with me our CFO, Polat Sen; our Finance Coordinator, Özge; and our IR Manager, Ismail, to go over the presentation and answer your questions during the Q&A session. Our presentation on 2024 year-end financial results contain the company's unaudited financial information prepared according to Turkish accounting financial reporting standards by application of IAS 29 inflation accounting. I would like to note that our presentation and the Q&A session might contain forward-looking statements and assumptions based on our business environment as we see it today, and they might be subject to change. Please remember, you can access the replay of the webcast on our website after the call. Now I'd like to hand it over to Polat Sen to start the presentation. At the end of the presentation, we'll have a Q&A session. Polat Sen?

Thank you very much. Welcome, everyone. Let's start with Slide 3. You will see today's agenda. I would like to start by giving you a quick overview of our position in the current environment. We have left behind a year of uncertainties and challenges, both in the world and in our country. At Koç Group in these difficult circumstances, we have always endeavored to achieve better. With the self-confidence we drive from our deep-rooted past, we resolutely continue to invest, to grow our business and to prepare our group for the future. The global economy and Turkey are expected to continue along their current trends. However, reshaping economic strategies of major economies is increasing uncertainty, both globally and domestically. We are closely monitoring macroeconomic developments and maintaining a prudent stance towards risk. Let's start on Slide 5 with some key indicators for Koç Holding. On the left, you can see the sectoral breakdown of our diversified business portfolio as the end of December. On the right, you can see the revenue breakdown. Our portfolio diversification is not limited to sectors but also includes international positioning. We are the largest exporting group in Turkey with our exports accounting for around 7% of Turkey's total exports. In terms of the composition of our own revenues on a combined basis in 2024, 30% comes from the international sales. If we also include Tüpraş, which is an FX-linked commodity business, approximately 49% of our revenues can be considered in hard currency. Moving on to Slide 6. You can see the evolution of our net cash in 2024. At the end of 2023, we had $795 million of net cash position, including YKB AT1 investment at the holding level. In 2024, our dividend income in nominal terms amounted to approximately TRY 38.5 billion whereas we distributed TRY 20.3 billion dividend to our shareholders. Considering items such as dividend income from our underlying companies, the dividend payment from Koç Holding management fees, operating and financial expenses and currency conversion impact along with other developments, our net cash position at the end of 2024 became $911 million. As a separate note, in January 2025, there was a cash outflow totaling around $178 million related with the capital contribution for Tek-Art regarding the privatization of the Fenerbahçe Kalamiş Yacht Marina for a period of 40 years with the granting of operating rights. On Slide 7, as of end of December, you can see that around 80% of our $1.7 billion gross cash in hand is in hard currency. At the Holding stand-alone level, we like to keep some liquidity to serve as a war chest against volatility as well as fire power in case of investment opportunities. In terms of our funding at Koç Holding level, the only debt we have is the $750 million eurobond, which is due in March 2025. We strictly apply and regularly monitor our prudent risk management policies at each underlying company on a combined basis. In terms of liquidity, leverage and foreign exchange position, we preserved our conservative levels. On a combined basis, our current ratio is 1.3x and our net financial debt-to-EBITDA, excluding the Finance segment, is at around 0.9x. In terms of FX, we remain well within our risk management rules. Now I would like to hand it over to Cansev for the sectoral developments.

Let's move on to sectoral developments in 2024 and I will start with the Energy on Slide 9. The Energy segment's contribution to Koç Holding's consolidated net income was strong in 2024, mainly supported by strong utilization, higher sales and lower energy expenses despite the softer crack margin year-on-year. The domestic demand for the refined products grew around 3% in the first 11 months of 2024. Gasoline sales surged 20%. Jet fuel sales increased 6%. And the diesel sales grew 1% year-on-year. In 2024, Tüpraş' international sales volume was up 5% year-on-year, while the domestic sales were flat, resulting in 1% year-on-year higher total sales volume. Looking at the crack margins, Tüpraş' weighted average crack margin amounted to $11.2 per barrel. Crack margins have been normalizing, although they remain higher compared to pre-COVID period due to ongoing imbalances in supply and demand dynamics. Tüpraş' capacity utilization rate was 93% in 2024, highest level since 2019 due to operational efficiency even at a time when the group maintenance was held. On the LPG side, in the first 11 months, consumption was weak, decreasing 6% year-on-year. Aygaz domestic retail sales volume was down 8% and including wholesale as well as contribution from Bangladesh, total sales volume decline was 7% year-on-year in 2024. Aygaz maintained its leadership position and increased its market share, both in Cylinder Gas and Autogas segments according to the latest EMRA report. Cylinder Gas market share increased by 0.2 points to 41.6% compared to the previous year, while the Autogas market share was flat at 22.1%. Aygaz sustained its leader position in both segments with a total market share of 25.2%. In 2024, United Aygaz LPG sales volume reached 126,000 tons in Bangladesh through 200 dealers in 2024. Let's move to Slide 10 and discuss the developments in the Auto segment. The Auto company sustained their robust performance, and the Auto segment was the largest contributor to the consolidated net income in 2024. The main drivers of this performance were all-time high domestic auto market, solid export contracts despite heightened competition in the domestic market and lower pricing ability with sales campaigns and increased vehicle availability. The domestic auto market recorded 1.29 million units in 2024, a slight increase from 2023, marking the second consecutive year it exceeded 1 million units. The increase in the base price of the special consumption tax exemption applied to disabled person, the sales campaigns ahead of the general safety regulation, the rise in the domestic demand ahead of the end March 2024 election, despite the continuation of the time monetary policy, weaker renewals by fleet and the reduced availability of LCVs in the market were effective in the market performance. All in all, our market share in the domestic market for 2024 decreased 4 percentage points to 20% compared to the previous year, mainly due to fierce competition with new entrants, especially with passenger cars. On the export side, the European passenger car market grew by 1% and commercial vehicle markets realized 5% growth. Our group market share in exports slightly changed from 37% to 36%. In 2024, Ford Otosan's export sales volume was 11% higher year-on-year. Tofaş witnessed a 45% decrease in its export volumes, mainly due to transition with phase out of MCV production models and import vehicle ban as an export market in MENA region. Negative impacts of lower domestic profitability due to the competitive domestic market in terms of pricing and product variety and lower export profitability due to lower export volumes impacted the financial performances of both Ford Otosan and Tofaş. TürkTraktör recorded a 21% decrease in revenue due to 14% lower volumes, owing to the weakness in export markets. The domestic tractor market was down 18% in 2024 in an environment of increasing interest rates. Otokar, our leading bus and defense company, realized 14% year-on-year decrease in revenues despite 5% growth in total sales units due to weakness in exports with the impact of the military vehicle deliveries and the share of international revenues, which constituted around 64% of the total revenues in '24. On Slide 11, let's look at the Consumer Durables segment. Consumer Durables segment performance was supported by the solid demand in Turkey and slightly improving international demand. On the other hand, financial performance was impacted by pricing pressure amid intensified competition, unfavorable euro-dollar parity and higher net financial expenses. The completion of the Whirlpool transaction at the beginning of the second quarter continued to contribute to revenues but diluted the margins. The net of negative goodwill and restructuring costs related to the consolidation of Whirlpool operations has supported the bottom line. Turkish white goods unit sales increased 7% year-on-year in 2024, while the export sales decreased 3%. Looking at Arçelik figures, Turkey revenues remained unchanged year-on-year despite the unit growth as pricing pressure prevails. On the other hand, international revenues, constituting 68% of the total, increased 25% year-on-year, primarily due to inorganic growth stemming from the Whirlpool contribution. For the key risk metrics, Arçelik's working capital to sales ratio decreased to 21%, mainly due to lower inventories and strong collections. Better inventory management and early receivables collections led to strong free flow cash generation in the last quarter, while leverage was a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 3.8x versus 4.3x in the previous quarter. Finally, let me also talk briefly about the Finance segment and the developments at Yapi Kredi on Slide 12. The Finance segment's contribution to our net income was negative in 2024. Please note that in our consolidated financials, we use Yapi Kredi's inflation-adjusted financials, which is affected by monetary loss due to the net monetary position of the bank. And as a separate note, Yapi Kredi's contribution to Finance segment results may differ from the bank's IFRS results, mainly due to purchase price allocation adjustments regarding Koç Holding's additional share purchase transaction in February 2020. Here, when providing the main KPIs of the bank, I'd like to switch to BRSA financials, as banks are exempt from the inflation accounting for 2024. In 2024, the total performing cash loan growth was around 39% and the total customer deposit growth was 25%. The bank's strategy to focus on small tickets in deposit gathering and contribution of efficient customers continued, and the share of demand deposits in the total customer deposits became 44%. In 2024, TL loan deposit spread was under pressure due to the high interest rate environment. However, thanks to the ongoing loan repricing, the effect of funding cost management and strong demand deposit base, Turkish lira loan deposit spread widened by 180 bps in the last quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. Net fees and commissions registered a significant 104% growth year-on-year, while the cost growth was 66%. As a result, the fee coverage of operating cost ratio realized at as high as 96%. During the year, with the contribution of the strong collection performance, net cumulative cost of risk, including currency hedge was at 58 bps in 2024. Conservative coverage levels were preserved and the total coverage was 3.6% on a consolidated basis. Yapi Kredi preserved its strength in capital and liquidity ratios. The FX liquidity coverage ratio was 226%, while the total liquidity coverage ratio was 128% level. In terms of capital, Yapi Kredi continued to operate with 340 bps buffers on its capital ratio compared to the regulatory requirements. The capital ratios continue to remain comfortably above regulatory levels and the adjusted consolidated capital adequacy ratio and the Tier 1 ratio was at 15.2% and 12.6%, respectively. Now I'd like to leave the floor to Polat Sen.

On Slide 13, I'll walk you through the overall results of group in 2024, incorporating all the segment trends we just discussed. Please note that all figures in this slide are inflation adjusted due to the application of inflation accounting. Accordingly, on a combined basis, Koç Group registered TRY 59.6 billion in profit before tax and TRY 26.2 billion in net income. Consolidated net profit amounted to TRY 1.3 billion. In 2024, we faced monetary losses in our companies that we have high net monetary asset positions like Tofaş, Tüpraş and Koç Holding. As a reminder, Yapi Kredi already reported its financials according to BRSA and banks are exempt from inflation accounting, but we must consolidate the bank applying inflation accounting, which results in monetary losses and marked it as the main contributor to the negative results. On Slide 15, I'd like to briefly talk about some of our unlisted companies as their performance in 2024 is worth discussing. Otokoç makes the largest contribution to our NAV among the unlisted assets. It is Turkey's leading automotive retailing and car leasing company and #1 in secondhand sales among corporate brands with the operation in 9 countries abroad. Otokoç had around 6% market share in new vehicle sales in 2024. The company is Avis Budget Group's biggest licensee and its most important investment partner abroad. Opet is a significant player in fuel distribution sector in Turkey with a total of 1,882 stations. As of the end of December, electrical vehicle charging units are available at 11% of Opet stations. Opet has 18.6% market share in white products and 32.1% in black products as of end of November last year, thanks to its well-established dealer network. In line with Tüpraş' strategic transformation plan, Entek aims to expand in the field of renewable energy, not only in Turkey, but also abroad. Currently, 77% of Entek's 492 megawatts total installed capacity is zero-carbon electricity. As the first milestone for the international growth strategy, Entek successfully concluded the acquisition of Niculesti solar power plant project in January in Romania this year. The project is in Romania with a capacity of 214 megawatts at ready-to-build status. Finally, another unlisted company is Koç Finansman. Engaged in the finance sector, Koç Finansman is a leading company in its sector with total assets worth TRY 32 billion and ranked second in terms of portfolio volume. The company's loans portfolio increased by 83% to TRY 28 billion as compared to 2023 and its net profit for the period grew by 103% to TRY 1 billion. If we move to Slide 17, you will see the evolution of net asset value discount. Our weekly average net asset value discount in 2024 has been 22%, comparably better than the 31% average NAV discount in 2023. As controlling, we benefit from our market proxy status, and we observed our NAV discount narrowing down to low teens through the year when supported by the sentiment and return of foreign investors to the country. Unfortunately, considering approximately 90% of our NAV is composed of our listed assets, the share price performance of most of our listed companies recently is not reflected in Koç Holding's share price. Besides, the intrinsic value of our unlisted companies is much higher compared to their book values, which is obvious in an inflationary environment. In summary, as a leading investment holding company in Turkey, since our foundation, Koç Holding has prudently managed risks and opportunities without compromising its long-term strategic perspective and will pursue its decisive steps in line with its vision of global growth. At Koç Holding, we are focusing on managing our portfolio dynamically. I am pleased to share with you as one of the recent developments that the Koç Group were awarded a 40-year concession to operate Fenerbahçe Kalamiş Yacht Marina for $504 million. An additional $150 million will be also invested over the next 5 years to upgrade and enhance Marina's facilities and services. So thank you very much for listening. We can open the floor for the questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Bystrova, Evgeniya with Barclays.

I have a couple of questions. For my first one, how do you see the conditions for exporters in your portfolio in 2025 in terms of your expectations for the economic environment in the domestic market and abroad? What do you think would be the key challenges? And just in general, what's your color for 2025? And my second question is, could you please share your plans to address the upcoming maturity of the bonds? And that is all.

Thank you. As you have rightly stated, the conditions for exporters are not getting better. The real appreciation of Turkish lira over inflation has been increasing the costs of the exporters, especially who have high labor costs in their cost composition. For us, we are also having the effect we already had in 2024. And it seems like that is going to continue in 2025 as well as the main target for the government is to make sure that the inflation is going to be at the targeted levels, which we understand. But on the other hand, in terms of exporters' margins, we are going to have some more difficulties. To be honest with you, this year, we are -- for 2025, we have been expecting this and we have built our budgets according to this assumption. And that's why we have been asking from all of our companies efficiency measures, automation as much as possible, as long as it's paying back on time, so that we make sure we are affected as little as possible from such a currency impact. The key challenges for 2025 is obviously for all the Turkish exporters, it's going to be the currency. But on the other hand, we also know that the domestic demand and the growth in Turkey is not going to be at the average levels of the last 10 years. It's going to be lower than that. And that will have some effect on our companies and also for the overall economy as well. Your second question was about eurobond. On March 11, we have the repayment and we are going to be repaying our -- we are paying back our eurobond of EUR 750 million. We do not think that the interest rate environment right now is suitable for us. So we are going to be watching for the right window of opportunity to really tap the market once again. I do not know when this is going to happen, but throughout the year, we are going to be keeping an eye on the market to find the right window. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Kilickiran, Hanzade with JPMorgan.

I have a quick usual question about the dividend outlook. I mean yesterday, Tüpraş announced to cut the dividend by around 30% and you have received substantial dividend last year. Is there any risk on your dividends in 2025? And where do you see your net cash position to land by the end of the year, actually?

We did not decide and agree on the dividend yet. So we need some more time through the general assembly. But we already have, let's say, a policy that you can see consistently throughout the last 10 years, let me say. And we most probably are going to be around our policies that we have implemented before. But of course, last year's dividend was very high, and we have distributed a very high dividend considering that. So this year, my expectation -- or the plan is going to be less than that considering the challenges of 2025 as well. In terms of net cash position, of course, the net cash position is mainly for -- especially for Koç Holding is going to be depending on any M&A activity that we may get involved in 2025. So it's really hard to predict now on what the amount is going to be. But we are -- what I can say is we are going to be as active as possible in order to show our appetite, to really add some new companies to our portfolio. You already know our strategy. We are mainly looking outside of Turkey and mainly in developed countries like Europe and North America. But 'til now, there is nothing that I can share concrete.

And about your combined revenues, I mean, last year was a difficult year for most of your companies actually in terms of real growth. I mean, do you also target a real growth in 2025 on a combined level from your subsidiaries in total?

So our combined net revenue because of the weight of Tüpraş in our portfolio, is mainly depending on the oil price. And the expectation this year for oil prices is, in average, going to be less than 2024. So the oil price effect is going to be taking us down. But with the organic growth that we are planning in 2025, we think that we should be able to land somewhere very close to what we have achieved in 2024.