Kri-Kri Milk Industry S.A. (KRI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello again, and welcome to this webcast I'm Konstantinos Sarmadakis, Kri-Kri CFO. In this session, we will discuss in detail our performance of 2023, and I will give you an update on the business for the current year. After a short presentation, Q&A will follow. You can post for questions using the chat tool. Firstly, let's have a look at the top line. Sales saw an increase of 25.9% exceeded EUR 216 million. Yogurt sales increased by plus 28.6% in value, amounting EUR 173 million compared to EUR 135 million in 2022. Accordingly, yogurt sales in volume increased by 15.3%. In Greece, yogurt sales were up by 21.8%, and yogurt export sales were up by 34.4%. Ice cream sales increased by 13.7% in value amounting EUR 40.7 million compared to EUR 35.8 million in 2022. Accordingly, Ice-cream sales in volume increased by 2.3%. Overall, of this 25.9% of total sales value increase, 13.8% is attributed to higher selling quantities and 12.1% is attributed to higher selling prices. On the second half of the year, we had to lower our price level in yogurts our price level of yogurts had lowered about 5%. That was a decision to stay competitive and also to defend our market shares. Also, we have to comply with the new Greek law aiming to control inflation. This law took effect on September 2023, and it is still in effect, and it is a law against excessive price increases. It does not allow the gross margin of domestic sales of yogurts per product to be higher compared to that of 2021. Moving to raw materials, which account for the large part of costs of goods sold, on the graph, you can see the price of raw milk in Greece. This is a very good proxy of all raw material costs that we use. At the start of 2023, the index had reached 135 level. On the first half, we experienced a steady decline of the price and in Q3, it was stabilized at a level of around 112. But then in Q4, it has shown a slight rebound. In general, this development of lower input costs had a positive impact on our gross profit. It also gave us room to proceed with the necessary product price reductions without much harm on the margin side. This graph summarizes the effect of the different elements of gross profit. Starting on the left-hand side of the page, at the gross profit of 2022. There was an increase of EUR 8.3 million coming from increased sales quantities. Because of the increased price level, gross profit was benefited last EUR 20.9 million. Lower material prices added extra EUR 12.7 million in gross profit and falling energy prices helped compensate for the large part of increased labor costs that are included in our production expenses. Therefore, the gross profit for 2023 went to EUR 72.5 million. Now let's have a look at our P&L statement overall. Sales saw an increase of 25.9%, exceeding EUR 216 million. Gross profit margin reached 33.5%. This is about 3 percentage points higher than that of 2021, which is considered a normal year. And it is a plus 15.2 percentage points compared to gross margin of 2022. EBIT was EUR 40.3 million with a margin of EUR 18.6 million. And finally, EBITDA stood at EUR 45.1 million with a margin of 20.9%. Moving on to sales to segment review, export yogurt sales saw a strong growth of plus 34.4%, exceeding EUR 97 million. This boosting sales is contributed by the major markets of Italy and U.K. as well as other countries such as Sweden, Austria and Belgium. Along with sales growth, we had the recovery of profit margins. And this led to an EBIT figure of EUR 20.1 million for the segment. Also, it is important to mention that yogurt exports now represent more than half of our total yogurt sales. In the domestic yogurt market, our sales saw also strong growth. Our sales increased by 21.8% in value exceeding EUR 76 million, the current inflationary environment has led the overall market to limited consumption growth in volume. That is 3.4% in volume while consumption in volume saw a double-digit increase of 10.1%. At the same time, there is a strong shift of consumers to private label products because of their preference to value for money products. Those market development has strengthened private label market share in volume, which increased by 2.7 percentage points, you can see on the graph -- on the table. So on the left-hand side of the page. And that is 7.7 percentage points higher compared to 2021 and of course, this development applies strong downward pressure on branded yogurts. That cost and pressure has led Kri-Kri branded yogurts to a slight decrease in the market share of 0.7 percentage points in value tariffs. In general, Kri-Kri seems to benefit from those market development. Since we are the largest producer of private label yogurts in the domestic markets. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin reached 29.9%, approaching the level of 2021, which was 30.1%. Of course, economies of scale helped and led the EBIT to a strong double-digit margin of 15.5% for this segment. Moving on to ice cream. In the domestic market, our sales saw a strong double-digit increase, 20.4%. Our ice cream market share increased by 0.4 percentage points in volume and decreased by 0.4 percentage points in value. We think the current high inflationary business environment that facilitates private label products growth Kri-Kri was the only company that managed to increase in it's branded ice cream market share in volume. Let me now move you to cash flow. In 2023, we had a record high operating cash flows of EUR 49.1 million. The key elements of this development were, of course, high profitability and the shortening of cash conversion cycle. Also because of the low profit that we had in 2022, that means that the tax base was much lower. On 2023, the tax authority refunded us with EUR 1.8 million that was income tax paid in advance. This was an extraordinary item and helped also to this operating -- high operating cash flows. Free cash flows, meaning the cash flow from operations less cash flow for investments were at around EUR 32 million. Let me now move you to 2024, we are optimistic about our performance in 2024. Although the comparatives of 2023 are very tough. On the top line level, we expect sales to continue their upward trend. Based on the management estimate, sales are expected to grow by 8% to 11% compared to 2023 and this is to exceed EUR 233 million. The key driver of this growth will be yogurt export segment. On the other hand, we expect some pressure to our profit margins. Although, as we've seen before, raw material prices are on a steady trend and present a slightly bearish trend. The lower product price level is expected to trim EBIT margin by around 3 percentage points. Moving on, let me say a few things about the key areas of growth of exports that we are now focusing on. Firstly, about the geographical expansion of our footprint. Recently, we launched -- on March, we launched the high-protein yogurt in France. As was the schedule. The initial indications are that sales will be above our budget. The other bet is with frozen yogurts in U.S.A. We have already signed an agreement with importers that serve is East cost of U.S. And the launch of the product is scheduled for June. Finally, the natural high-protein yogurts series that we have developed are to be presented in trade fairs in May, trade fairs in Italy, U.K. and Austria. We believe that the product will be accepted, and we expect to launch to this market early this September or October 2024. Finally, the shareholder structure Tsinavos family, the major share holders hold around 72.8%. Domestic institutional investors, 11.9% and foreign institutional investors 8.6%. And about the dividend, the Board of Directors decided to propose to the Annual General Meeting a dividend per share of EUR 0.35. And this gives dividend yield of above 3% with the current share price level and just to remind you that last year, the dividend was EUR 0.20. This is the end of the presentation. I will stop for 5 minutes to post for your questions in the chat tool, and then I will come back with the answers thank you.Okay. So let's start with the questions. The first question is about the EBIT margin of the fourth quarter of 2023. In Q4, we were expecting a much lower EBIT margins that was because we have lowered our product prices. We were expecting a pressure of costs, that raw material prices were rebounding. And also, the EBIT is affected much by our seasonality in Q4. There are no ice cream sales and all these costs are charged on this quarter. So this explains much of the lower EBIT that is shown on Q4. A question about the working capital on 2023, we had lowered receivable days, and this helped to increase -- to lower, sorry, the working capital needs and increase operational cash flows. We do not expect this change to lower the days the receivable days more. But at this level, we believe that it is sustainable. And it comes from the customers' mix because as we increase sales abroad, our export sales have better credit terms. A question about the anticipated impact on sales from frozen yogurt exports in U.S.A. For the current year 2024, we don't expect a material impact on our results, on our sales figures. We will have a better picture later this year after launching with -- after launching in June with the importers. A question about the free float. As I'm aware, the major shareholders are in consideration of a small placement this year in order to help the liquidity of the share. Another question about U.S. In U.S. we have signed the contract with 2 distributors, importers and distributors that serve this coast of the UNFI and [indiscernible] and we are in advanced discussion with Kroger for private label frozen yogurt. With Kroger, however, and probably launch will be on 2025 as for this year, all their schedule is full. Question about maintenance CapEx. We estimate that maintenance CapEx is around EUR 4 million [ this year ]. Question about average selling prices for U.S. frozen yogurt versus prices in Italy and U.K? Unfortunately, I'm not aware of this detail. What is the estimation of the growth of ice cream exports? I think we answered this question. A question about Q1 2024. The Q1, the figures up until now strongly support our guidance for the full year 2024. Should we expect a higher gross margin for frozen yogurts in the U.S.? Probably yes, because the price structure is such that will allow us high profit margins there as it is a premium product. A question about the law to control inflation. As I said, there is a law in effect that does not allow our -- for each yogurt, we sell domestically in Greece to have higher gross margin than we had in 2021. Of course, we comply with this law and we have lowered the prices in cases that were higher to comply with this law. However, I don't think that we saw this law effect that we had materially a different picture in our gross margin for 2000 -- for this segment for 2023 because, as I said, the major driver for these decisions were to stay competitive and to defend our business. Question about the milk prices trend. We see that on the first months of 2024 that raw material prices are at a steady state. However, we think that on the next months, the trend will switch to bearish trend because of -- it seems that animal feed prices are also varies. And so the cost base of milk production will be lower, and this will allow for lower milk prices, too. Have you met the new law price or margin [indiscernible] procedure. I think -- I do not understand this question, perhaps you can write again with more details. And finally, a question about our EBIT margin of 15% that we expect. The EBIT margin level of 2023 that we achieved is not at a sustainable level. And as I said, because of lowering product prices and in order to allow for some increased ports that we will need, our estimate is of an EBIT margin of 15%. Of course, economies of scale may help and may overachieve this time. Finally, a question also about free float. I think we answered this that the major shareholders are in consideration of a small placement in order to help the liquidity of the share this year. So I think we finished with this question. Thank you all again for joining us today. Have a nice day.