Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. My name is Raphael Gross. I'm a partner in ICR's consumer practice, and I'm very pleased to welcome Krispy Kreme to the ICR Conference. Before we begin, let me remind everyone the company will be making forward-looking statements pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995, including statements of expectations, future events or future financial performance. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, assumptions and uncertainties, and many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. These factors and other risks and uncertainties are described in detail in the cautionary statements in the presentation accompanying this event and in the company's SEC filings. In addition, given that the company has finished its fourth quarter but has not yet released its 2025 results, the company's discussion today of financial results will be limited to its public disclosures. The company expects to announce its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results in late February. Krispy Kreme has been delivering joy one doughnut at a time since 1937. It currently operates in more than 40 countries around the world through approximately 2,100 company-owned and franchise shops and has 15,000 global points of access via its retail partners. More than 90% of Krispy Kreme sales are doughnuts and more than 1 billion doughnuts are sold each year. Here with me to discuss Krispy Kreme are Josh Charlesworth, President and CEO; and Raphael Duvivier, CFO. Thank you so much for participating in the conference. And just for everyone who's interested, there'll be Krispy Kreme doughnuts both today and tomorrow, and we appreciate that very much.

Josh, you've described Krispy Kreme as a growth company. How has this beloved brand that is nearly 90 years old still a growth company?

Good morning, everybody. Yes, Krispy Kreme is a growth story. It's a brand known across the world, such high brand awareness universally known almost. We see that time and again when we enter new markets as we did last year in places like Brazil and France the year before, enormous response, and that's enabled expansion for a number of years right now. The demand is there for the fresh doughnuts because people see it super relevant for sharing occasions, special occasions, and they just love our fresh iconic doughnuts. But actually, it's really interesting. If you think about the size of the brand, it's top-of-mind awareness, we're still relatively only available in a small number of places. The number of -- percentage of households even in the U.S. where people purchased Krispy Kreme less than 15% penetration. And when we speak to consumers, they say the #1 reason why they may not purchase a Krispy Kreme is just convenient access. It's not always accessible to get our amazing fresh doughnuts. So our growth strategy is to make the doughnuts available in more places, whether it's doughnut shops, through digital commerce or indeed off-premise distribution to grocery and convenience stores where we've seen a lot of growth in recent years. Now, in the summer last year, though, we just announced a turnaround plan because we want to make sure that, that growth was sustainable and profitable, and we wanted to deleverage our balance sheet. So the turnaround plan you see here is very much focused on capital-light and more profitable growth, not just growth.

So we have a turnaround plan in place. It has 4 components: refranchising, driving ROIC, expanding margins and quality growth. Maybe we'll discuss some of those things in further detail. Raphael, I'm going to start with you on refranchising. So as you know, there are many successful models that are company-operated models. They are successful hybrid models, combination company and franchise. And there are also successful franchise models in the quick service and snacking category. Why is Krispy Kreme evolving to a capital-light international franchise model right now?

Yes. Good morning, everyone. We have already a proven global franchise model that we can build on. We have just over 40 countries. And the reality is the vast majority of that is actually operated with franchise partners, big scalable partners. Think about, for example, our example in Korea, where we have Lotte, one of the biggest groups in Korea, which is our operator. But not only this, the places we just entered, Josh mentioned Brazil, we also enter with very capable partners. Think about Brazil, we entered last year with a Hotlight theater shop in Sao Paulo. Our partner is the largest convenience player in Brazil. They operate 1,500 convenience shops. So we can continue to build on those relationships we have because we can grow faster when we're using outside capital, and that's a big focus for us.

We also recently announced a refranchise agreement in Japan, right? Proceeds from this transaction, which will be approximately $65 million and will be used for debt paydown after transaction-related expenses and fees. You also said that you're looking to refranchise other markets internationally and are in active discussions with other operators to potentially refranchise those markets. Maybe discuss how that process is going.

Yes. The deal we just announced in Japan, very happy with the deal with Unison is a great partner and it's a great example of what I just described, how we can partner with someone that wants to grow the brand and help us achieve opportunity, chase the opportunity we have. Japan is probably one of the biggest opportunities we have globally. I feel very confident about the growth. Japan is also the first deal of many. We are working on the other ones to bring partners that can allow us to grow the business much faster with, as I said before, outside capital, focusing on long-term value by delivering growth.

We talked about refranchising and the opportunities there internationally. Josh, let me ask you, if we look at the U.S., would you consider refranchising select markets within the U.S.?

Look, we wouldn't rule out selective refranchising in the U.S. in the longer term. But right now, our focus is on making sure our company-owned operations in the U.S., which is the vast majority of what we have, are more profitable than they have been before and making the system more efficient and more productive. That being said, we are in discussions with our well and long-established JV partner in the Western states, the WKS Restaurant Group, to actually reduce our ownership stake with them. What's sitting behind that is we really want to support capital-light growth in the future. We're excited to grow the brand further, but we're looking to reduce our stake there. And if there are any proceeds from that, we'll use those to further pay down debt.

You talked about refranchising. Maybe let's talk about the second component of your plan, which is improving returns on capital. Josh, let's talk about Minneapolis. That's a recent hub that opened in November. Tell us about that market and how that market is performing so far.

It was exciting to open up in Minneapolis in the fourth quarter. The people of Minneapolis have really welcomed Krispy Kreme back to the city with incredible enthusiasm. We've seen lines around our doughnut shop in the Fridley area there. And actually, it's been a record-breaking opening not just in the U.S. but in the history of the company around the world. We actually saw $1 million of profitable sales from one doughnut shop in just 17 days, which really is a testament to the power and excitement of the brand. And it's really great to see the response from the community there. What's interesting about this site is it's a former drug store that's been refurbished, and we actually designed it with off-premise distribution in mind as well. And we've already started that. We are already distributing in the Twin Cities area to about 48 off-premise locations, grocery convenience stores, a lot of Target stores. Of course, this is the home of Target, one of our best customers, which is great to bring the doughnuts to those targets and see that off-premise growth. The whole rationale for that is that we use the off-premise locations to make it more convenient for people to buy the doughnuts and also to make our production facilities more efficient and more productive by increasing the utilization of the lines. We sell off-premise to about just over 7,000 locations across the U.S. today. But what's also interesting is actually, our production network is operating at about 25% utilization. So what it means is we can actually add more points of access, as we call them, more places where people can buy the same fresh doughnuts as they get in our doughnut shop at grocery convenience stores without making significant investment in further capacity, which is great for our future capital returns.

Just staying on that theme and switching over to Raphael for a moment, talking about leveraging existing capacity, what are the implications, therefore, for CapEx as it looks to 2026 versus 2025? What are the areas of focus for CapEx? And what does it mean for free cash flow generation?

Yes. CapEx -- reducing CapEx was and still is a big priority for us. So we did this in 2025. CapEx in 2026 will be lower, mostly for repairs and maintenance of existing shops. And then if you think lower CapEx, together with, one, operational improvements through the turnaround plan, but also our shift to the capital-light model, we will continue to improve the trajectory that we see in free cash flow. This was and still a big priority for me since taking over as the CFO.

Let's now talk about the third component of the plan, which is expanding margins. Josh, I'll start with you. Maybe you can give us some examples of how Krispy Kreme intends to generate higher margins within the shops themselves.

If you recall, we appointed a new COO this time last year, Nicola Steele. Actually, an internal appointment started off as a team member more than 15 years ago, and she has had a big impact over the last few months. We've seen programs that she's led that have optimized our production facilities, that have actually increased labor productivity. We've seen already improvements made to not just the making of the doughnuts but the delivery side as well, thinking about improvements like route management and designing delivery routes and scheduling. And that's all on top of a program that was already underway, which is the outsourcing to third-party logistics providers of the delivery to those grocery and convenience stores. We have more than now half the network in the U.S. that's been outsourced. And we're seeing with those third parties that they have additional capabilities in fleet management. We see delivery technology that's bringing us new insights. They're obviously investing in various AI opportunities there, demand planning, the most obvious one. Think about how many deliveries we're making every day across the system and the complexity of that safety programs. And what that's bringing us already on the logistics side is a lot more predictability in our logistics costs and efficiency opportunities. We expect to have outsourced the whole of the delivery network in the U.S. during 2026. So that's an important example of the improvements we're making.

So really, what you're saying is Krispy Kreme should be making doughnuts and others that are experts in logistics should be doing logistics.

Yes. The teams have built up so much capability and mastery in doughnut making over the years, but the complexity of running a logistics operation, think about things like casualties and safety and insurance and managing all those fleet expertise. We found that by partnering with these experts who are thrilled to be working with the Krispy Kreme brand, it's a much more sustainable and we believe a more profitable approach for the future.

Let's stay on that topic of sustainable growth. You rationalized about 1,500 underperforming doors last year and replaced them with approximately 1,000 new doors, higher volume, higher margins. Josh, tell us about the strategic partners that provide the long runway of growth as you look ahead?

What's important when we deliver to these off-premise locations is that the conditions are right. We know the demand is there. The consumer is looking for access to our doughnuts. They love the doughnut. But what we found is locations with high traffic of people, good visibility of the doughnuts in store, sometimes in multiple locations where the branding is very clearly communicated is very, very important. Often, the doughnut purchase is not a planned purchase. Often, it's an impulse purchase or a purchase for a special occasion that people noticed our doughnuts were there when they were going for their regular shop. So it really has to stand out. And with our strategic customer partners, we see them being -- really getting behind that, whether it's near the checkout in the bakery section or now increasingly, of course, online. These are great examples here on the screen from people like Target, Costco and Walmart, all of whom we have built a very strong partnership with and expect to continue to grow it.

Just from the standpoint of penetration in some of these partners that you're talking about, what is your penetration approximately in a Target or a Walmart, trying to give people some flavor as to how [indiscernible]?

We're in less than half of the store network in all 3 of those. It really is an opportunity for us. What we tend to find is that we just need to make sure that we've got a doughnut production facility nearby, and we can design delivery routes that are efficient so that we can hit a number of places at the same time. Fortunately, obviously, in some parts of the country, they're well spread out. But we're working to design those delivery routes, bring efficiency to the delivery. The third-party logistics are a big part of that, so we can get to more and more of them nationally. The Minneapolis example, obviously being the most recent one where we've seen rapid growth in a new geography.

Raphael, what are the implications for average weekly sales of the doors that you've added in the last year versus the doors that you've eliminated in the last year?

Yes. So let's see, we closed those 1,400 doors. But I mean, as you said, we opened also new better doors, good performing doors. So if you think about those new doors, they are doing more average weekly sales than the average. Josh mentioned Walmart, take Walmart example, a good partner for us where we're doing more than $1,000 of weekly sales. And we are actually just in 30% of the network. So a lot of opportunity for us to grow. This is a great example of sustainable growth for us in the U.S.

Let's now talk about your marketing efforts, particularly as it relates to the iconic Original Glazed doughnut. Why is it the right course of action to focus on a doughnut that people have been familiar with for so long. I'll start with that.

It's my favorite topic. We're talking about the doughnuts. This is great. And the Original Glazed. It's our most iconic fresh doughnut known around the world and loved. It actually represents more than half our sales. It's our most affordable doughnut as well. And it is indeed our most profitable. And so it's very important for us to continuously communicate and remind people of the joy, whether it's to have hot or to share at a barbecue or a seasonal occasion that doughnut can bring. And we do put a lot of effort around that, even glazing it with different flavors, different colors during the year. But it's also really important that we bring news to the consumer about our doughnut portfolio. We are the doughnut innovators. More than 90% of our sales are fresh doughnuts. So it behooves us to continuously innovate and bring news and excitement to the category. We do that with limited time offerings as we did just over the holidays. We did a peanuts collection. So yes, there was a snoopy doughnut that was very much loved. And -- but we also have, in the fourth quarter, refreshed our everyday menu, improving the doughnuts that we already have, but also bringing in new varieties and new flavors, often reacting to calls on social media for various recent trends. New York Cheesecake is my favorite new one. And what's important about these is, yes, it brings variety and excitement to the category, but these are often premium positioned doughnuts at a higher price point. So they represent for us also a source of profitable growth. What's great about this is what I'm talking about here is our core business. Our core business in -- that we've been doing for those 90 years, just continuously improving the doughnuts, which is a real theme for our turnaround to make sure that we're growing quality growth moving forward, sustainable growth, leveraging our core strengths.

And everyone, of course, will have an opportunity to try these new doughnuts shortly, and I hope everyone avails themselves of that opportunity.

Definitely.

Great. I want to talk a little about digital sales. How are you approaching digital sales? They seem to be on the increase, of course, is a wonderful thing. And maybe talk also about your loyalty program and how you're leveraging that.

Yes. Sure. Now digital commerce is really important for us. It's a lot about convenient access to our fresh doughnuts, and there's nothing more convenient than going on and seeing the doughnuts there, whether they're the original glazed or indeed nearly all these varieties will be available online. We find that people just find that it's so easy to make that snap decision to buy the doughnut. And when you see it online, of course, we're constantly using our social media presence, which is significant across all the platforms to remind people of the joy that's Krispy Kreme. And doughnuts travel really well, which is great. So that's why they work across multiple platforms. We saw in the third quarter last year, 17% growth in digital commerce on the retail side. And what's an interesting longer-term growth opportunity for us as well is also working with our fresh delivery customers like Walmart, Kroger and others to be on their digital platforms and delivering through that. And we know that a lot of those grocers are seeing a lot of their growth from their own online platforms. And now by working, for example, is one where we went on to walmart.com during the course of 2025, which is a great boost for the company as a whole, but also for the digital platform itself.

So when we look at the financials, just to be clear for everyone, when we see digital sales in your earnings report, that's digital sales represented by the retail shop, but the number is obviously higher if people are ordering Krispy Kreme doughnuts on Walmart's platform.

Yes. And that would sit within the fresh delivery reporting. And it is a growing opportunity for us. You also mentioned around the loyalty program, which is something we introduced or relaunched in 2024. It's been very focused on rewarding our returning customers, making sure we can communicate to them, exciting new innovation. I mentioned all the different things we're doing. We've even -- we've now got rotating innovation like seasonal -- the loyalty platform gives us a place to quickly engage customers around that and give them advanced warning of the new doughnuts that are coming out, perhaps give them a special offer just for them. And that has been great. We have 16 million loyalty members in the U.S. alone for a brand our size. We're really proud of that. And the way the younger consumer, in particular, is engaging between that and social media is really exciting to keep the relevance and modernity of the brand. It's a 90-year-old brand, but everybody loves it, whatever demographic, whatever age range and the digital platforms and the loyalty program has enabled us to recognize that, make it easier to remind people of the joy of Krispy Kreme and reward them where we can.

We're running out of time. We only have about a minute or so left. I wanted to just give you an opportunity for any final takeaways or thoughts.

Well, look, I think that we've talked a lot about the Krispy Kreme brand today and the doughnuts and getting them in more people's hands, and that is our job. In 2025, we wanted to do it more profitably, more sustainably while also deleveraging our balance sheet. And so we announced this turnaround plan. And I think it's clear that the early results are very promising. We are seeing the refranchise capital and margin improvements and a clear strategy for long-term profitable growth. And so we expect to continuously update the market on those proof points as we go. And the last thing I'll just say is my confidence in the Krispy Kreme leadership team, my friend here, Raphael, the COO, Nicola and the whole team to execute that plan is very mobilized around that. The clarity top to bottom across the world, all 20-plus thousand people and Krispy Kremers who love the brand and get behind it gives me every confidence that long-term profitable growth is our long-term trajectory.

We're out of time, but I want to thank Josh and Raphael for being on the stage with me this morning. I appreciate that very much. Two things just to keep in mind. The first, of course, is there will be Krispy Kreme doughnuts for everyone to enjoy. And the second thing is the first breakout session is at 10:30, and it's in Mediterranean One. Thank you so much.

I think the doughnuts will be 10:00.

Yes. 10:00 doughnuts.

Thank you.

Thank you.