Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Kumba's 2021 Interim Results Presentation. Thank you for joining us on the call. As many of you know, my name is Penny Himlok, Kumba's Head of Investor Relations. And I'm joined today by our CEO, Themba Mkhwanazi; and our CFO, Bothwell Mazarura, who will present our first half results. Before we continue, please note the disclaimer and our forward-looking statement. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand you over to Themba.

Thanks, Penny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before we start today's presentation, I would like to pay tribute to all the health care workers, including our own medical team, who have worked tirelessly through the ongoing pandemic to help their fellow South Africans. These are extremely trying times for all South Africans. And I want to express, on behalf of the entire Kumba family, our condolences to all of those that have lost loved ones. Sadly, we've lost 21 of our colleagues since the onset of the pandemic. We feel their loss, and we grieve with their families and loved ones. We are also deeply concerned for the welfare of all South Africans that have been affected by the social unrest. And we are reaffirming our long-term commitments to helping rebuild and reset South Africa and its economy for the benefit of the nation. In today's presentation, you will hear firstly how, together with Anglo American in South Africa, we are doing what we can to address the impact of the recent social unrest. We'll then go through our first half highlights and our resilient operational performance in difficult conditions. Next, Bothwell will take you through our record set of numbers. I will then wrap up with how we are positioning for the future and our guidance for the year before we go into the Q&A. Now moving on to the first slide. COVID-19 has had a devastating effects on the South African economy and people. This was compounded by July social unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng, resulting in a localized crisis for those communities. While geographically remote from our mines, the social and economic effects ripple outwards. Everyone in South Africa, including our colleagues and communities, are impacted. I think we all know of someone, a cause or institution that needs help. More than ever, in these times of distress, we need to ask ourselves how we protect what matters most. That is our people and our communities. As you know, Kumba's WeCare COVID program has made an enormous difference in managing and mitigating the effects of the pandemic. To date, this year, we have invested ZAR 100 million to support our colleagues and community through the second year of the pandemic. In responding to the question, what more can we do? We are building on our existing program by committing an additional ZAR 250 million of funding to our WeCare program. The support covers 2 main categories. Firstly, we will contribute ZAR 150 million to expanding our current employee and community support. This will include mechanisms for financial assistance for employees and contractors who need additional support and food relief packages and other necessities for the vulnerable communities through our NGO partners. Secondly, we will contribute an additional ZAR 100 million to projects that stimulate economic growth at a local and regional level. In partnership with government, business and civil society organizations, we will focus our initiatives on infrastructure projects, job creation, education support to schools and colleges, and the granting of bursaries and skills training for SMMEs. As Kumba, we remain committed to partnering for sustainable and meaningful impacts. Together with Anglo American companies, we will collaborate across government, civil society and business to contribute to new initiatives that can build and reset South Africa and its economy. Next, moving on to our first half highlights. Before I continue at this point, let me just clarify that all volumes, apart from waste, are in wet metric tonnes. Despite challenging conditions, Kumba delivered a record first half performance as we continued to build momentum on a strong 2020. In May this year, Kumba achieved over 5 years of fatality-free production. I thank each and everyone of our employees and contractors because it's a great achievement, one that we can all be proud of. Production increased by 12% to over 20 million tonnes and sales increased by 3% to 19.5 million tonnes despite ongoing challenges on the logistics front. This operational resilience, combined with strong iron ore demand, saw us deliver a record EBITDA of ZAR 44 billion. Our balance sheet strength, combined with tight capital discipline, allowed us to declare an interim dividend of ZAR 72.70 per share. This is a threefold increase compared to last year. Our successes means that we can create more value for our stakeholders. And that brings me to safety and sustainability. As mentioned, Kumba achieved over 5 years of fatality-free production. In addition, we've achieved a 50% reduction of recordable injuries and a 25% reduction in total injuries. It's great progress, driven by further interventions from our elimination of fatalities strategy. We have strengthened our rhythms and routines through our sustained risk reduction program. This drives individual accountability and responsibility to prevent and mitigate safety risks. We also continue to invest in our technology for safety program as we drive to engineer out administrative controls. A well-known example of this is the auto braking technology that we developed, which continues to serve us well. This year, we implemented our first real-time berm monitoring system at Kolomela, that ensures that the tipping berms on our waste dumps are always to the correct standard. We also completed a proof-of-concept study on remote electrical lockout, which we'll now implement throughout our operations. As was the case in 2020, there have been no new cases of occupational diseases, with investments in engineering and administrative controls paying off. We have also continued to support the mental health and wellbeing of our staff through our World of Wellness program and other initiatives. Environment is another priority, and I am pleased we've sustained our excellent track record, with no major environmental incidents for more than 6 years. We are focused on progressing towards a neutral carbon emissions targets in 2040. Importantly, Kumba's unique products allow our customers to produce steel with less carbon emissions, and it's increasingly likely that we will see an attractive premium for this quality. We are also implementing projects to achieve 50% freshwater reduction by 2030. We supported communities in the Northern Cape by supplying over 7,400 megaliters of water to the local municipality. Turning to the next slide on our existing COVID support. Firstly, I would like to thank our colleagues for looking after each other and keeping each other safe as we battle through COVID together. Our robust COVID strategy, which is ultimately underpinned by our people taking care of themselves, their teams and their families has meant that we have not experienced any material COVID-related disruptions since level 5 last year. And this is despite the various mutations of the virus which have become more transmissible. We have stepped up COVID protocols at our mines in response to the third wave, and those who can are working from home. On the 17th of July, we rolled out our own vaccination program, working with government and Anglo American. Vaccination sites have been set up across our operations for our workforce, and eventually, their families, further helping our communities. At Sishen, we have just received an additional 11,700 doses of vaccines. So our vaccination program is well underway. This certainly helps Kumba make a difference. And on the next slide, I'd like to talk a bit more about Kumba's contribution at both a national and regional level in South Africa. Fundamentally, a healthy and profitable mining industry increases the value shared with all stakeholders. Kumba is playing its part, and we are proud to contribute to the South African economy in the broadest terms. Our strong performance benefits all of our stakeholders. We contributed close to ZAR 10 billion in tax revenues and mineral royalties in the first half. This provides much needed support for national economic recovery efforts at a critical time for the country. Safeguarding local livelihoods is extremely important. We employ 85% of our workforce from local communities. We also supported BEE and host community suppliers with ZAR 4.9 billion of spend in the first half. In addition, we contributed ZAR 85 million of direct social investment, which includes our WeCare COVID support for communities. Turning now to our operational performance. In the first half, we continued to operate in a logistically constrained environment. Added to this were extreme weather-related challenges. From November last year to February this year, the rainfall recorded was at an 80-year highs. And I'm pleased to say this improved in the second quarter following the redeployment of our shovel fleet at Sishen to dry areas and shorter haulage routes. With the benefit of Kapstevel South's contribution, waste stripping increased by 4% to 98.5 million tonnes. On the next slide, we will clearly see that our mine recovery plan led to improved operational efficiency in the second quarter. Balancing our value chain is key to our operational performance. In the first half, we achieved production of over 20 million tonnes, which is higher than our pre-pandemic production levels. As you can see, both ore rail throughput and sales increased, while finished stock is similar to a year ago. These results demonstrates our operational resilience and the ability to mitigate challenges successfully. And we'll go into this in more detail later. Next, I'll touch on our operational efficiency. In line with waste mining, operational efficiencies of our truck and shovel fleet were also impacted by the heavy rainfall. However, as can be seen, this improved in the second quarter. When normalizing for rainfall, shovel OEEs would have been above 58% and truck OEEs above 80%. To mitigate the impacts of the weather, we implemented our rainfall recovery plan. We brought forward scheduled maintenance during heavy rainfall and completed major overhauls on our 4100 shovel fleet. As a result, the mean time between failure increased by 40%. On the truck fleet, the focus was on improving our payload performance. Both the Sishen 860 and the Kolomela 730 fleet are operating over 100% in terms of the rater payload. Given the setbacks we have seen, we expect to achieve our OEE targets of 80% on the shovel fleet and 100% on the truck fleets by the end of 2023. Now we'll look at how we are managing on the logistics front. Debottlenecking logistics is right up there on our list of priorities. We have seen ongoing challenges from the fourth quarter last year to April this year. This is not only due to weather and equipment failure. We also had additional challenge with the locust infestation, which is the first we've ever experienced. Since May, we have seen an improvement on the rail. The drier weather conditions naturally help with keeping the trains on schedule. But we are also working with Transnet to refurbish the tracks, which will enable the lifting of speed restrictions. We are also sharing our operating model with Transnet to improve efficiencies on the rail line. Along with this, they have appointed additional operational managers that are focusing solely on getting these efficiencies up. Other work with Transnet will continue, such as the spring program to curb the locust infestation and prevent their reoccurrence next year. Importantly, a preventative maintenance regime has been implemented to ensure that maintenance is planned well in advance and we can manage our production and sales accordingly. From a longer-term perspective, we believe that we can reach our contractual capacity of 11.2 million tonnes on average each quarter. As you can see on the slide, we've achieved over 11 million tonnes of export sales in the third quarter last year. At Saldanha ports, the initiatives implemented last year have helped to offset some of the challenges we've experienced. These include simplifying the product portfolio to facilitate direct loading, and we are maximizing every opportunity to dual load. At the bulk terminal, the minimum vessel size has increased to 130,000 tonnes, increasing the average load per ship. However, while we are confident that these interventions are beneficial, we have exercised caution and revised our sales guidance down by 1 million tonnes to between 39.5 million to 40.5 million tonnes. Overall, we are encouraged by the rail performance, which has picked up significantly over the past 2 months. And we'll continue focusing on improving this performance and increasing throughput at Saldanha port. Now moving down our value chain and onto the markets and our competitive position. Our product quality strategy and agile marketing approach enables us to capture a significant price premium. Over the past few years, we have seen a flight to quality. Our Fe and lump-to-fine sales ratio remains ahead of the peer group. Our realized price was, in fact, more than 25% ahead of the nearest peer in the first half. And I will go into the main drivers now. Demand in our traditional markets outside China increased dramatically in the first half, as vaccination programs gain traction and governments embarks on major infrastructural programs to spur post-COVID recoveries. These markets represented 55% of Kumba sales, well up from 2020 when it fell to 38%. With a global drive to increase productivity, we have seen healthy demand for our high-quality products, which contributed to the lump and Fe premium of $28 per tonne. Our marketing capability added another $3 per tonne of product premium. The timing effects of $22 per tonne is due to the strong increase in iron ore prices over the past 6 months, combined with pricing effectively taking place a month after arrival. The first half has been phenomenal. Part of this is due to the shortage of supply due to COVID last year. But in the long term, the demand for quality will continue to increase. I will now hand over to Bothwell, who will take you through our numbers.

Thank you, Themba, and greetings to everyone on the call. Kumba delivered an excellent set of financial results. This was in spite of some weather and logistics headwinds. While the robust iron ore markets provided a welcome tailwind, our operational resilience and cost discipline, coupled with our focus on quality, has supported this performance. Let's take a closer look at the financial highlights. The strong iron ore price environment, together with our marketing team's ability to maximize premia, enabled a higher average realized FOB price of $216 per tonne. This is more than double the $91 achieved in the first half of the -- of last year. Our realized price includes a product premium of $2.8 per tonne, over and above the lump premium and Fe premia, reflecting the additional benefit of our high-quality product. When it comes to costs, our savings are closely linked to our operating efficiencies. As we heard from Themba, our efficiencies decreased in the first half due to weather and other operational issues. This has made it more challenging to meet some of our cost savings targets. We achieved ZAR 370 million of savings against the target of ZAR 1 billion for the full year. This compares to savings of ZAR 700 million at the same point last year. However, you will recall that last year's savings were supplemented by ZAR 355 million of savings, which were as a direct result of reduced activity following COVID-related disruptions. I'll go into detail on costs later. Strong market price premia more than offset cost inflation and the impact of a stronger rand to reduce our breakeven price to $26 per tonne. As a result, our EBITDA margin rose to 70%, an excellent result, up from 55% this time last year. Attributable free cash flow of ZAR 31.5 billion has allowed us to declare a record first half dividend of ZAR 72.70 per share, returning more than ZAR 23 billion to our shareholders. On the next slide, we take a closer look at our EBITDA performance. EBITDA of ZAR 44.4 billion reflects a stronger iron ore price and higher price premia for our products, combined with an increase in sales volumes. This was partially offset by a 13% stronger rand and higher operating expenses compared to a COVID impacted base from 2020. We will take a closer look at costs on the next slide. Now there are 4 main factors driving our unit cost performance for the first half. Firstly, base mining inflation and above inflation escalations in key cost items like diesel and wages saw unit cost increased by 7%. Secondly, mining costs increased off a 2020 base, which benefited from one-off COVID-related savings. Geological inflation relating to longer distances and higher vertical lift also contributed to the mining costs increase. We also saw a higher maintenance spend as we continued to focus on improving equipment reliability. The third factor centers around operational performance and how it has impacted unit costs. As highlighted by Themba, waste stripping performance at Sishen was impacted by weather, resulting in reduced capitalization of stripping costs. This had a negative impact on unit costs. Furthermore, at both sites, we drew down on work-in-progress stockpiles, further impacting unit costs. Lastly, and on a more positive note, these cost impacts were partially offset by higher plant production and cost savings achieved of ZAR 370 million. Overall, the negative cost impacts were felt more at Sishen, where unit costs increased by 24%, while the Kolomela increase was limited to 4%. Looking ahead to the second half, we expect waste mining and operational efficiency to improve, and we will accelerate our cost savings drive. However, maintenance costs are expected to remain elevated as we continue to focus on fleet reliability and undertake some plant maintenance. We are also starting to see increasing price pressure from some of our suppliers as global demand increases post COVID. Overall, the cost performance will improve in the second half of the year, but not enough to meet our original guidance. Consequently, we have increased our unit cost guidance at Sishen and Kolomela by 4% and 2%, respectively. Sishen's unit costs are now expected to be between ZAR 410 and ZAR 420 per tonne for the year. We expect unit costs at Kolomela to be between ZAR 305 and ZAR 315 per tonne. Now let's move on to my favorite slide, which shows our margin progression since we implemented our Tswelelopele strategy. Most of you are now familiar with this, our margin enhancement strategy. It focuses on 3 elements: product quality, operational efficiency and cost optimization. From the 2017 base, EBITDA per tonne has increased by close to 5x, from $33 per tonne to $159 per tonne this period. This reflects the benefit of a constructive iron ore market and our value over volume strategy, targeting more than $2 per tonne of product premium, over and above the premia for lump and iron content. This strategic focus gave us an additional $2.8 per tonne. As highlighted by Themba, operating efficiency on our truck fleet was impacted by the weather, leading to a drop in truck efficiency to 71%. We have some catching up to do to achieve our P101 benchmark. It's grape seed truck efficiencies improving to 75% in the second quarter. As mentioned, we expect this improvement to continue in the second half of the year. On cost savings, since 2018, we have delivered cumulative savings of ZAR 3.6 billion. This is well ahead of our original target of ZAR 2.6 billion by 2022. We have covered unit costs in the previous slide. But I'd just like to add that even with lower production volumes over the past couple of years and higher mining inflation, C1 costs have remained relatively flat through to last year. The increase to $40 per tonne this year was driven by a stronger rand and higher on-mine unit costs. On a constant currency basis, using ZAR 16.67 to the dollar, C1 costs would have been $35 per tonne. This compares well to our original guidance of $34 per tonne. We are focused on containing cost inflation by managing what is within our control. This includes cutting our fixed overhead base, improving efficiency and productivity, as well as optimizing the way we use and manage our contractors. Next, let's take a look at capital expenditure. In the first half, capital expenditure increased marginally to ZAR 3 billion from ZAR 2.8 billion in the comparative period. The spend relates to, firstly, ZAR 600 million of expansion CapEx, which supports the work on our UHDMS technology project, the development of Kapstevel South and our P101 efficiency program. Secondly, stay in business capital of ZAR 1.5 billion includes capital space to maintain our mining fleet and processing plants, in line with our focus on equipment availability and reliability as well as some infrastructure spend. The last component relates to waste stripping CapEx. The rate of capital spend has been impacted by COVID as we limited visitors to the mine, which affected delivery of some nonessential projects. Furthermore, delivery of some equipment has been rephased with increased supply chain lead times. We have also had the benefit of a stronger rand, which reduced imported capital spend. For the full year, we expect lower CapEx of between ZAR 7.7 billion and ZAR 8.2 billion, which is ZAR 3 billion below our previous guidance. There will be no significant impact on our operations or projects as a result of these deferrals. Capital discipline will always play an important role in how we run our business. This brings me to the next slide, on our balance sheet and capital allocation. Disciplined capital allocation is one of my priorities. And this slide demonstrates how we have applied our capital allocation framework. We started the period with a strong balance sheet and liquidity position. We then generated ZAR 36.7 billion of cash flow after sustaining capital. Our base dividend continues to target between 50% and 75% of headline earnings, and remaining capital is allocated to discretionary options. These include our expansion projects, value-accretive investment options and the potential for additional returns to shareholders. We then paid a final 2020 base dividend of ZAR 13.8 billion in March, before applying discretionary capital of ZAR 4.4 billion for the period. This includes the top-up dividend of the final 2020 dividend of ZAR 3.7 billion as well as ZAR 600 million of expansionary CapEx. On the back of our strong closing net cash position of ZAR 40.7 billion and after taking into account balance sheet flexibility and further discretionary capital options, we will be paying an interim dividend of ZAR 72.70 per share. Dividends per share have increased more than threefold over the comparative period, representing a payout ratio of 100% of headline earnings and giving us a dividend yield of 11.3%. In conclusion, we have recorded -- we've delivered a record first half, demonstrating our operational resilience and the benefit of our margin strategy in a strong iron ore market. Attributable free cash flow has grown from ZAR 7 billion to over ZAR 20 billion in 2020, with more generated in the first half of this year than in each of the full previous 3 years. Dividends have also increased significantly, and we've created exceptional value for our shareholders. In the past 3.5 years, we've paid over ZAR 54 billion in base dividends and ZAR 13.8 billion in top-up dividends. Despite the cyclical nature of our business, the operational and macro challenges and market volatility over the past few years, we've provided consistent returns to our shareholders. Since 2018, we have returned more than 85% of headline earnings to shareholders. This underscores the operational and financial resilience of our business. We remain committed to maintaining a balance between investing to sustain and grow our business while returning excess cash to shareholders. Thank you. I'll now hand back to Themba.

Thank you, Bothwell. The market is clearly embracing the need for decarbonization. Kumba's products are uniquely well positioned to help reduce emissions. Let's first focus on traditional blast furnace steelmaking. Sintering is responsible for about 10% of the total CO2 emissions and blast furnace steelmaking. Using lump ore instead of fines can significantly reduce overall emissions. The chart on the left shows that the share of lump and pellets in Chinese blast furnaces is steadily increasing. This trend is definitely expected to continue, giving China's focus on reducing emissions and seeing that the share of direct charge material is already much higher in the traditional markets. This in turn will support demand for lump ore and especially benefit Kumba since our share of lump ore is much larger than that of our competitors, as we have seen earlier in the presentation. We have also seen that Kumba's products have a much higher average Fe content than our competitors' products. This also helps reduce CO2 emissions from blast furnace steelmaking. As a rule of thumb, every 1% increase in the Fe content of the ore reduces overall CO2 emissions to produce a tonne of steel by about 2% to 3%. That's another 5% to 10% reduction in CO2 emissions from using Kumba rather than products. Therefore, optimizing the burden of a blast furnace by using Kumba products can significantly reduce CO2 emissions. But much greater CO2 reductions are needed, and many steel makers are now turning their attention to steelmaking using DRI, which stands for direct reduced iron. It is estimated that emissions can be cut in half by using DRI based on natural gas compared to the traditional steelmaking based on the blast furnace route. Using DRI based on hydrogen produced from renewable energy can reduce emissions by as much as 90%. According to the International Energy Agency, DRI's share will increase from around 8% today to over 30% in 2050. This is a long time, but we may well see an accelerated response from steelmakers as regulation on carbon emissions increases. For now, we anticipate the kind of projection you see on the right here. DRI requires very high-quality input materials. And most iron ore is not suitable for DRI based steelmaking. But Kumba's premium lump ore is. Iron is transitioning. Enabling green steel made from our high-quality Fe and lump products is necessary wind turbines and other green infrastructure. That means our products is essential for a greener world. The end user consumer demand for cleaner and greener products is also another driver as our customers face this increasing pressure. We have seen announcements of large automobile companies, such as Mercedes-Benz, that they will be using green steel in car production from 2025 to achieve a carbon neutral fleet by 2039. That's just one company in one steel intensive sector. But there are many others taking a similar route. Kumba's products help our customers to achieve their purpose of meeting consumer expectations to be more environmentally proactive. I will cover our own initiatives and objectives for decarbonization now. Decarbonizing our own business and providing for a healthy environment is a priority. And we have set targets for scope 1 and 2. In connection with that, our solar energy project pilot studies are progressing and we have located sites at our operations. The hydrogen truck pilot projects with Anglo American is also progressing. With regards to scope 3, we are building partnerships with the steel industry to work collaboratively to achieve lower emission results. Our investments in technology, including our UHDMS project, will not only allow us to produce more for longer, but also for less. And we will be utilizing natural gas shipping vessels from 2023. doubling of the ESG KPIs in the scorecard for management, from 10% to 20%, underscores how important these issues are for Kumba from top to bottom. And just to reinforce this, both Kolomela and Sishen will go through the initiative for responsible mining assurance audits this year. Known as IRMA, this is the global third-party certification to measure environmental and social responsibility for all miners and all materials. Our sustainability is also demonstrated by our ability to deliver tangible value through operational efficiency, which I'll cover on the next slide. 2020 and 2021 have been challenging years, primarily due to factors outside of our control. However, our Tswelelopele pillar strategy has meant that we could weather the tough times and deliver tangible value. Bothwell has already touched on the cumulative ZAR 3.6 billion of benefits we've realized from our strategy since 2018. And our journey to improve operational efficiency, focusing on mining processing, logistics and product quality, has specifically delivered ZAR 1.7 billion of this value. We have previously discussed mining fleet enhancements. These have seen truck utilization increase by 16%, truck payload improve by 4%, while shovel volumes are up by 40%. Over the 4 years since 2017, our work on optimizing Sishen's loadout station led to an average increase of 2 tonnes per wagon, increasing rail capacity by 400,000 tonnes. On the plant side, the lump-to-fine ratio is up 5% at both operations. We achieved this through blasting optimization and advanced process control, with the latter adding 4% to yield at the Sishen geo plant. One of our key ambitions was to extend Sishen's life of mine to 2040. We have achieved this by embedding P101, reducing waste through smart mine design, slope optimization and the UHDMS technology. These have contributed to ore reserves increasing to 310 million tonnes and our product premium offering increasing to 50% from 2024. We are proud of these achievements. And on the next slide, we'll see how our operating model initiatives and technology is adding value from a safety, efficiency and a sustainability perspective. Our operating model is focused on operational stability and reliability, supported by our defect elimination program. We have seen the benefits of this through increased plant and equipment availability. And the next phase is improving reliability. I spoke earlier of debottlenecking the rail and port and increasing capacity. And this is really key to ensuring we can optimize our value chain and get more tonnes to markets. Technology is playing an increasingly important role across our business. Our future smart mining strategy continues to focus on improving the safety of our workforce while supporting the step-up in productivity levels to P101. Our key focus areas remain on automation. For example, on the drilling front excision, we aim to have all of our drills running autonomously by 2023. We are also focusing on the health of our assets, where at the Kolomela DSO plant, we implemented real-time condition monitoring. Year-to-date, we have mitigated a potential ZAR 100 million loss associated with unplanned downtime. We are excited about the work we are doing incorporating the Anglo VOXEL data program, which will see us applying data analytics to our whole value chain from safety through to our customers. All of our projects and exploration activities are on track, and we will provide a more detailed update at year-end. Next, I'll move on to our guidance for 2021. Looking ahead, we continue to focus on safety, safeguarding the health of the workforce and implementing our WeCare COVID-19 program. We envisage continued demand for high-quality iron ore and positive market fundamentals, although perhaps not at the same levels as the first half. We are revising the full year guidance on sales and waste excision, provided at the 2020 annual results to accommodate the ongoing effect of weather and logistics challenges. Bothwell has already discussed our unit costs and CapEx guidance. Before we go to Q&A, let me conclude with our value proposition. Overall, this has been an exceptionally strong half despite some unprecedented challenges. We delivered record financial returns, maintained operating discipline and had good traction across our strategic focus areas to improve productivity and cost efficiency. We also continued to progress our initiatives to extend our life of mine, remove logistical constraints and improve throughput. Importantly, we did this whilst keeping our colleagues and communities as safe as possible during the ongoing pandemic. We also saw our products generating high premiums. Pricing in this half was supported by the effects of the pandemic. But we have increasing confidence that our products will command an attractive and sustained premium given the benefits that they give to customers in lowering their emissions. Looking ahead, we are conscious that the pandemic is still far from over, and we will continue to prioritize the health and safety of our workforce. We still have a lot of road ahead of us. And we are confident that we can continue to build on our track record of delivering sustainable value for our stakeholders. In closing, I would like to thank our Kumba employees and contractors for their hard work and commitments, the Board, for their leadership and guidance, and our partners and stakeholders, for their continued support. I will now hand back to Penny, who will manage our Q&A session.

Thank you, Themba. We'll now open the conference call line for questions and then we'll move to the webcast for questions on that line.

[Operator Instructions] The first question we have is from Shilan Modi of HSBC.

And congrats on the record results. A couple of questions from my side. You've rephased the CapEx. It's now -- it's about ZAR 3 billion lower now. Given that prices are high, doesn't it make sense to just try and spend much more of the CapEx now? So like bring forward your projects and execute them sooner rather than later? Second question, on the UHDMS. I see on Slide 29, Point #4, it says that between 2036 and 2039, production will be 10 million to 15 million tonnes per annum. I assume that's a capacity constraint at the UHDMS. Is there something you can do about that over time and potentially lift that volume? I'll leave it there. I've got one more afterwards.

Yes. No. Thanks. Thanks, Shilan. I mean on the CapEx, I'll give over to Bothwell to give more detail. But clearly, we've always got to factor in the capacity to do the work, and in particularly, in a COVID environment, where we need to observe the protocols around social distancing, the movement of people. But Bothwell will go into more detail as to the reason for that. With regards to the UHDMS, we are logistics constrained. So the numbers in relation to the UHDMS are always in relation to what we believe the capacity on the rail and logistics will be. And clearly, there's a big focus though on making the necessary improvements to unlock that. But it is very much based at that level. But I've also got Glen here who can go into more detail. Bothwell?

Thanks. Thanks, Themba. Yes, Themba is quite right. It's -- our CapEx spend is also based on our capacity to spend. And as Themba rightly points out, in a COVID-impacted year with our protocols, we just had to defer some of our noncritical projects, especially on the SIB side. There's also been a big impact around deliveries, especially of our heavy metal equipment. So for example, on Kapstevel South, there's a consignment of trucks which was due to come through in the second half of the year. That will now only be delivered next year. So that will still be delivered, but it's just obviously in the next accounting period. And then we've also seen the impact of a stronger rand, which has actually helped us in terms of cheaper spend in rand terms. And there's also been some optimization. When you look at some of the mining costs at Kapstevel South, we've seen some good savings coming through there. So it's not for a lack of not wanting to spend. It's just our ability to spend in this environment, in a COVID environment with logistics chain, supply chains under pressure as demand increases, as the world comes out of the constraints of COVID. So we will see that capital flow in the next year or 2. And another thing I'd like to emphasize is that none of these deferrals or rephasing impacts the underlying business. So in doing all of this, we've made sure that the principles of maintaining the integrity of our equipment and our plant, the reliability thereof is absolutely maintained. The time lines of our key projects like the UHDMS and Kapstevel South, those have been maintained. So we see no impact to that in terms of that deferral of CapEx.

Okay. Just a follow-up question, well, the third question rather. On your cost saving and life extension plans, Slide 20, where you show the margin expansion or the margin that you're generating currently. Even though you guys have saved a significant amount of money over the last 3, 4 years, it's not really translating directly into unit cost savings. So your unit costs have stepped up over that period. Is there a pathway that you can see ahead of you that can drive your C1 unit cash costs back down to $35 a tonne from $40 currently?

Yes. What we've got to appreciate is that the challenge we are having with costs is that the headwinds are a lot higher than what we've expected. And again, this is a combination of the fiscal inflation, but also, what we call the geological inflation that Bothwell mentioned earlier. The pathway is essentially our strategy. And looking at further reinforcing the levers that we have at our disposal, this relates to -- and we see these as structural levers. This relates to ongoing work around exploration to essentially look for options and opportunities that reduce our strip ratio. And the second lever, of course, is very much in line with the premium that we enjoy. And again, all the work that's related to obviously the technology, UHDMS, and what we're doing there. And then the third lever as well is around how we continue to improve from a logistics debottlenecking perspective. Because, of course, that in itself, will -- we will assist in diluting some of the unit costs. Now this is over and above the ongoing improvements that we mentioned earlier. But maybe Bothwell, you might want to add on that?

Yes. Thanks, Themba. I think the only thing I want to add is just, Shilan, you made a statement that the unit -- the cost savings are not translating into our cost position. I think that graph in front of you on Slide 20, which shows our C1 unit costs over the years, is showing that despite the increase in South African inflation, which this alpha loan was 7%. We've seen it a lot higher in previous years. And despite our constraint, which is the logistics constraint, which doesn't allow us to dilute costs by simply increasing volumes. Despite all of that, we've managed to keep our C1 unit costs fairly flat. And that's the direct result of our savings on the one end and what Themba spoke to, around the rest of Tswelelopele strategy and our P101 efficiency. So we have seen that directly translating into containing our C1 unit cost flat for the last 4 years. I mean this past 6 months, and I touched on it in the presentation, we've had a significant impact from a strong rand, which if you do it on a like-for-like basis, has added $5 per tonne on our C1 unit costs. And then we've had the challenges on the unit costs as we've added Sishen. But by and large, those will reverse. And we will see a year-end unit cost which is lower than what we're currently seeing at the half year.

The next question is from Patrick Mann of Bank of America.

A couple of questions, please. Just in terms of where you are with inventories at the port and the mine. I'm just trying to get a handle of how you're managing this. I mean how much inventory can you pile up at the port? What's the kind of technical limit before you can't rail anymore? And likewise, how much at the mine? So I suppose at what point do the logistics constraints start to impact what you can produce? Yes. That's my first question. I'll wait to ask the second.

Do you want to take that?

Yes. Yes. No. I'll pick that up, Patrick. Patrick, when we started the year, we had about the same amount of inventory, but we were starting to run low at the port, and a lot of it was at the mine. What we have seen in the first half of this year and despite the real challenges we saw in Q1, Themba spoke about an improvement in rail performance in Q2 and then some challenges at the port. We've seen that inventory being spread more evenly across the value chain. So we are looking at more than 1.5 million tonnes now sitting at the port. Ultimate capacity, we could probably push that to about 2.5 million tonnes in terms of the port before that starts the inventory buildup alone that's becoming a bottleneck. So we do have a bit of room at the moment. And as long as that channel operates, as we anticipate that it will in the second half of the year, then we should still remain to see -- we should see that balance remain in the second half of the year. What would be great, as Themba said, is if we can open up some of the throughput at the port, because ideally, you want that inventory in the hands of our customers to take advantage of the strong markets.

And then, sorry, if I may, just 2 other questions. In terms of your life extension opportunity, so after Kapstevel, after UHDMS, what are the other options to increase life of mine from here? And then the second one is pretty open ended, but it would be great to hear your outlook on the iron ore market.

Okay. So I mean when we think about life of mine, we think about it in 3 phases. The one, being the ongoing productivity and efficiency improvements. And through that, it allows us obviously to improve the pit's economics. And it allows us to bring more reserve out of resource, which in turn adds the life of mine. And a prime example of that is the fact that in 2016, we shrunk the pits at Sishen. And obviously, that in turn meant we took out reserve. But over the last 4 to 5 years, we've basically written back all of that reserve because we've improved our productivities and efficiencies. The second element, obviously, is the exploration. And of course, you've mentioned Kapstevel South. We've talked about, and the work that's happening there. And of course, the work that's happening in terms of some targets that we are currently drilling. I mean we have quite an extensive drilling program in the Northern Cape in relation to some of those targets. And then, of course, the third one is very much around technology. And of course, the UHDMS, which, of course, allows us to convert what would have stockpiled as waste into products. And in that way, it allows us, obviously, to impact positively on the life of mine. And again, we are doing work to further develop UHDMS. I mean the current cutoff grade is currently at about 40% to 43%. So we believe we can lower that. And we essentially believe that the combination of that bodes well in terms of extending and increasing the life of mine. Maybe I'll ask Glen, who's also on the call. Maybe if you want to add anything on that?

Yes. Thanks, Themba. No, I think you covered it really well. I think the key thing is an integrated approach, looking at changing the productivities in the mine, which changes the pit economics. And then exploration, which Themba mentioned, we're actively working [indiscernible], and then 2 other sites, which we drilled -- started drilling last year. No results are on those yet, but again, quite prospective. And then, yes, the UHDMS, lowering the cutoff grade further, but then exploiting some existing waste stockpiles we've got, which we're busy investigating. So that's the approach we're taking on the life of mine extension front.

Thanks, Glen. In terms of the iron ore market outlook, we also have the pleasure of having Timo on the line. Timo, do you want to take that?

Yes, I'll take that. Thanks, Themba. Good afternoon, everyone. Yes, we are actually quite positive on the outlook, not just for the second half of this year, but for the next couple of years. Why is that? Well, Australia is operating pretty much at logistics capacity. So Australia's ability to expand supply is very limited. Vale is picking up a little bit. We've seen a strong performance in Vale in the first half, but there's only so much that Vale can do. And the response from the rest of the world has been quite muted. So -- and that's against a continuing high demand environment. Outside of China, we are seeing a very, very strong market. And you would have seen that our sales going outside of China have actually picked up relative to China. There is a little bit of a risk of some pressure on prices from Chinese production restrictions being implemented. It does seem that this year, those restrictions are being implemented much more strictly, and they are very, very tight. That would put a little bit of pressure on the iron ore price, so we're not expecting the same price level that we've seen today. For the second half of the year, we expect about 1 80. If that pressure materializes, then it will have a positive impact on steel margins because the underlying steel demand continues to be very robust. And if we are seeing stronger steel margins, then that would be very positive for high-grade premium. So that's definitely a positive for Kumba with the quality of our products. And in terms of the long premium, we've been seeing very, very strong levels. It's come down a little bit now to about ZAR 0.50 per dmtu, so just over $30 per tonne. We do expect that to come down a bit in the second half the year. And longer term, say, 3, 4, 5 years out, we should be seeing that come down further. So in the second half of the year, we're expecting about $0.45 per dmtu, so about $30 per tone. Longer term, it should come down to the costs of sintering, which is $0.21 per dmtu. But for the time being, that continues to be very strong. So maybe a bit of pressure on prices in the second half, but still very, very strong prices. We're expecting 1 80. But strong long premia and strong high-grade premia, that's what we're expecting.

The next question is from Brian Morgan of RMB Morgan Stanley.

Can we carry on with Timo? You spoke about the production restrictions in China. It's been going on for a few years and all that that sort of stuff. But it's different this time, right? What they're trying to control isn't pollution. Now it's carbon emissions. And it's just sightly different. And it seems to be quite aggressive and becoming a lot more aggressive in the last couple of months. What's your outlook there for the next couple of years? Are we going to see just a steady reduction in steel production in China? Are we going to see it replaced by scrap? How do you see this thing evolving?

You're right. We're seeing much tighter restrictions this time around. And those restrictions are not limited to just a few provinces, but seem to be much more widespread. But at the same time, we're continuing to see very strong steel demand. So it's difficult to see how we're going to see a cutback, a meaningful cutback in steel production when we're continuing to see the steel demand flourish as we are seeing. But I mean there's a couple of things that you now see, right? Chinese have taken away the export rebates on steel. And I assume that the monetary tax steel exports all-in, and they tend to keep that steel inside of China. We're seeing imports of scrap into China as well so -- to promote heavier reliance on scarp. So there is this attempt to basically moderate the iron ore price that way. But if the steel demand continues to be strong, that is a very, very powerful supporter for steel production and also for the iron ore price.

Timo, do you think we're at peak on iron ore demand in China?

No, I don't.

You don't?

No.

The next question is from [indiscernible] of Berenberg.

Just on the cost -- on the CapEx. How much of the foregone spending of this year do you think will be rescheduled into future years?

Yes. A significant portion of that. So we have reduced our guidance by ZAR 3 billion. That will flow in future years. Most of it will flow next year, with some perhaps spilling into 2023.

The next question is from Tim Clark at SBG Securities.

Just a question from me on the unit cost at Sishen. If you just look at the increase that you've had in the first half and then the increase that's going to come through in the second half or the decrease that's coming through in the second half, that's quite significant and clearly based on higher volumes. At the same time, you're dealing with logistics constraints. So with the volume -- a massive uptick in volumes in the second half, perhaps you can just give us a little bit more color on how those costs come down? Where -- what buckets we should put it into? And then whether you're concerned about having really strong volumes in the second half with downgraded sales volume?

Yes. Maybe -- I mean, I think we have guided the sales lower by 1 million tonnes, but that's on the back of, obviously, some conservativeness related to probably more incremental weather. More so, I guess, on the port side, but also, any potential overrun with regards to the planned maintenance shut. We are though quite confident that with the work that we're doing with Transnet around the recovery, we will be able to make progress in minimizing the impacts of that. So we've seen that on the rail. So we would not foresee any issues impacting on production, which is why we have not changed the guidance on production, because, of course, the rail, of course, is a key element of that. And again, that's due to the step-ups in performance that we've seen from quarter 1, averaging around 83% of contracts to what we achieved in May and June of around about 96% of contract. And we see that improving for the rest of the year. With regards to the Sishen unit costs, more in terms of what makes up the buckets, maybe, Bothwell, you can just highlight some of the detail.

Yes. Thanks. Thanks, Themba. Tim, I guess your direct question is which buckets? If you look at that waterfall, what's going to turn in the second half of the year. And a lot of it is not -- as Themba says, it's not driven by plant production. It's rather what's happening on the mine production. If you can see on the work-in-progress side, we drew down on work-in-progress stockpiles. As our mining and efficiencies improve in the second half of the year, you should see a reversal of that. And likewise, on the deferred stripping, because we are behind on our waste, again, you should see a reversal of those line items in the second half of the year. And also, on the mining cost perspective, again, we are over the challenges of the rain. So some of the impacts we're having, for example, around longer haul routes because we're having to navigate a wet pit are now behind us. So we will start seeing those negative impacts again starting to reverse in the second half. And that's how we see that number coming back down to the ZAR 415 per tonne.

That's very helpful. Can I just ask a quick follow-up question to Timo? You spoke about the lump premium coming down to the cost of sintering. In the modern world of sort of the environmental change and the requirements for everybody to get their CO2 emissions down, I was a little surprised that you don't think there'll be a sort of premium for lump product versus the sort of relatively dirty sintering process.

Maybe longer term, that could well be the case. And certainly, in a very, very long term, where we've seen the switch to DRI, be more premium for lump than what we've seen today. But I think over the next 3, 4, 5 years, it's going to come down to the cost of sintering. We might see the cost of sintering go up slightly because of the additional steps that need to be taken to achieve cleaner sintering. But actually, look, you will recall a couple of years ago, we raised our estimate for the long premium from ZAR 0.15 to ZAR 0.21 per dmtu. That ZAR 0.21 is what we're sticking to for the time being for 3, 4, 5 years out.

The next question is from Thabang Thlaku also of SBG Securities.

\ I'm just going to continue from where Tim left off. Timo, I'll start with you. So BHP is replacing Yandi with South Flank, and we're aware that it's proportionately higher lump, but it also comes with a cost of higher tariff elements such as [indiscernible] alumina. Have you seen those sort of like penalties increase in that market? Or -- and do you expect them to increase going forward?

Well, I think you're hitting the nail on the head by pointing to alumina. So South Flank is replacing Yandi. Yandi is relatively low in alumina. South Flank is significantly higher in alumina. So the market is going to be relatively short of low alumina product. Our products are low in alumina, so we should benefit from that. And we have, over the past 2 years, call it that, seeing a significant increase in the alumina coefficient value. And frankly, I don't see anything to suggest that that's going to reverse. So that quest for low alumina products is only going to intensify [indiscernible] South Flank replacing Yandi. And that's actually very good news for Kumba.

Glen, can I just ask you a quick question? So the release says that, obviously, the aside establishment of the UHDMS project will start in the fourth quarter of this year. Can you just give us an update on timing? So i.e. when should we expect sort of first volumes? And when does the UHDMS project sort of reach nameplate capacity? And then I'll just tag on a second question. What have you guys learned from retrofitting this plant as opposed to replacing it with the new one?

Okay. Thanks, Thabang. Just in terms of timing of the UHDMS, so we are breaking ground in quarter 4 this year. We're busy now just with final detailed designs and making orders in the long-lead UHDMS modules, but we'll start on the ground in quarter 4. And then in terms of first production, it is still H2 2023 and targeting nameplates in quarter 1 2024. That's the current plan. And then in terms of what we've learned, look, I think the advantage we have retrofitting the plant is that we don't have to build additional crusher units or do big large-scale civil works. So that's a significant benefit to us. And we estimate that's probably -- if you have to build a plant from scratch, you'd probably have to double the cost. So we've got about a 50% saving through retrofitting.

So you learn that you saved many. I would just, sorry, final question. Bothwell, can -- I know people are asking what's going to happen with that ZAR 3 billion. But are you willing to sort of give us a guidance of what that profile looks like? Obviously, a bit higher in the second half of this year, over 5. And then with the remaining costs for Kapstevel and UHDMS, how does that profile look on a total basis for 2022 and 2023?

Yes. Thabang, obviously, I'll come back with more detailed guidance at the year-end when we guide for the following year. But by and large, a significant portion of that will be spent next year. Whether that just adds to what we've previously guided to -- for next year, again, depends on our capacity to execute that spend. And I'll have more detail at year-end around that.

Okay. And just a quick follow-up. Should we use your previous cost guidance as our base for 2021 when estimating 2022? Or should we use these sort of higher costs that are coming through?

I think you should use our revised guidance as the base. It is only -- it's about 2% higher for Kolomela and 4% higher for Sishen, but that's always a good conservative base to start with. We will obviously try and claw back some of the savings we are saying we're not going to make this year in the following years. But as a starting base for your modeling, start with revised guidance.

Okay. And finally, Bothwell, when are you going to change your dividend policy to 80% to 100% of earnings?

Does it really matter? I paid you 100% anyway.

Thanks, Thabang. Sorry, if I may, operator, go through to the webcast and just give some of these on the line the chance. We've got 10 individuals with questions. I'll just summarize some of them. We have already covered in terms of CapEx and cost inflation. Catherine Cunningham has an additional question, in terms of the slower renewable energy, and that would be for Themba. Do you have any indicative estimates on what the capacity of this could be? And what percentage of your energy requirements could that befall?

Okay. So when you look at our energy requirements, about 86% is diesel and the balance is electricity. So when we think about renewables for our own consumption, I mean, we are not necessarily a big user of electricity. Our nominated demand is about 60 megawatts. The work that we are currently doing is working on a solar plant, which is around about the 100 megawatts. And then, of course, that then more than offsets what we need. But we are though driving the renewable as part of the broader Anglo American regional drive in terms of renewables. And of course, we would be playing our part. The biggest opportunity obviously is in diesel and replacing that with hydrogen. And again, we are very much working around the Anglo American hydrogen truck project. And we will take guidance and a lead from that. And of course, the trial is ongoing in that light. So that's probably our biggest areas from a renewable perspective. There's also the prospect of wind and as part of that drive with regards to solar. But again, those studies are still very much at an early stage. So I'm not really in a position to be able to share with you what those numbers are. And then of course, as technology progresses in relation to hydrogen and the ability, obviously, to generate hydrogen, green hydrogen, we believe we are well positioned from being a net exporter of water to also leverage off that as well. But again, that's probably sometime down the line in terms of a timing perspective. But certainly, the initial focus is very much around solar and wind.

Thank you, Themba. For the sake of time, as we do start a round table in a few minutes, I will address one question from each of the individuals that are sent through that is different from the ones we have answered already. The next question is from Eugene King from Lijaro Asset Management. Eugene asks, and that would be for Bothwell. He asks, Cash tax was approximately ZAR 5 billion lower than P&L tax at ZAR 11.5 billion. Why is this? And will it be a factor in the second half as well?

Thanks, Penny, and thanks, Eugene. Yes, our tax payments in South Africa, based on the payments we made through the year based on a provisional tax payment system. And we do have a liability at the end of the first half of ZAR 5 billion. That will flow in the second half of the year. What I have done in determining the dividend for the first half is I've taken into account those timing effects of our cash flows. I've done that for the tax payments. I've also done that for the CapEx, which, again, is heavily weighted towards the second half of the year. And that's why you see a pro forma cash balance after paying the dividend of about ZAR 10 billion, which is higher than our buffer -- targeted buffer of ZAR 2.5 billion.

Thanks, Bothwell. The next question is from Sandile Magagula from Umthombo Wealth. The first question he has which we'll address in this round, how much of lost sales volume as a result of the recent civil unrest? And that would be for you, Themba.

Yes. Because of where we are from a geographical perspective, we haven't really seen a direct impact from a sales perspective. Also, when you then consider our logistics chain and also our supply chain, we have seen very little impact. And we also believe that, that just goes back to the strength of the COVID strategy that we had deployed, where we were able to put mitigators in place. So for example, availability of diesel availability of chemicals, explosives. There was essentially very little impacts from a unrest perspective. As you heard, [indiscernible] Bothwell mentioned around an OEM's supplier perspective, there was a little bit, but it was not material. And of course, that was as a relation of parts arriving at the ports of Devon. So so far, Sandile, we've had very, very little impacts, if any, from this supply or unrest situation. And again, that's largely because of how well we were positioned from a COVID planning perspective.

Thanks, Themba. We have 2 questions, which I'll combine. They're from [ Bruce Williamson and Kateko ], that's around Transnet. If we'll be able to increase rail capacity? And would we consider taking a stake in Transnet?

Yes. So I mean, first and foremost, the focus is very much around, how do we reduce the variability and increase the stability of the performance of the logistics piece, both from a rail and port perspective. And our view is that the instability is probably costing us about 10% of the nameplate capacity of that system. And you will have seen in the presentation where we believe we can claw that gap on. So that's the work that we are doing in terms of working on programs focused around on the rail side, clearly, around the actual maintenance of that system in relation to, obviously, the world replacement, processes under track maintenance. Then of course, on the ports, there's a bit more involved. And again, it's some of the things like more direct loading the work as well that we are doing around maintenance and supporting that. So we're of the view that the biggest opportunity is increasing that stability and reducing the variability of performance. Yes, you will have noted in the media that Transnet are obviously looking at private-public partnerships in terms of their rail infrastructure. And again, with the limited engagements that we've had with them on this, we have obviously registered our interest. We are of the view that what we require is a system view in terms of what the art of the possible is. And of course, we in turn, as part of the industry, because there are other players, we see ourselves as playing a role in that. But yes, we're very much interested in that.

Thank you, Themba. Unfortunately, we have run out of time. We will be having an analyst round table in the next few minutes. But I would like to say thank you to management for taking the time to go through the questions. And thanks to everyone on the call for joining us today and for your continued interest in Kumba. If you have any other questions or if we have not been able to address them due to the time limits, I will get back to the questions that have come through on the webcast. And you're also most welcome to reach out to me. My detail's on the website as well as inside the results booklet. And that's all from us. I'd like to wish everyone well. Please stay safe, and goodbye. Till next time.