Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Anglo American Kumba Iron Ore Pre-Close Investor Update. [Operator Instructions] Also note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to the Head of Investor Relations, Penny Himlok. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Kumba's Pre-Close Investor Call. You will have seen our SENS announcement at 9:00 this morning, providing an update on our full year 2023 guidance and the outlook as well on our production and C1 unit costs for the next 3 years up to 2026. Our team on the call with us today is: Mpumi Zikalala, Chief Executive of Kumba; Bothwell Mazarura, CFO; Timo Smit, Executive Head of Marketing; and Glen Mc Gavigan, Executive Head of Technical Projects. For the first part of the call, Mpumi will provide a business update. And Timo will then follow. And he will cover the latest market developments. And Bothwell will then take you through our financial guidance. Thereafter, we'll open for Q&A and Glen will join us on that call. Before we begin, I'd like to just remind you that some elements of the call and our SENS announcement are forward-looking and are based on our view of the environment and our business as we see them at the moment. Please note the disclaimers relating to our guidance in our SENS announcement under the -- in the Investors section of the company website. With that, I will now hand you over to Mpumi.

Thank you, Penny, and a warm welcome to everyone on the call. Thank you for taking the time to join us for our call. I will start with safety, which is our first value, and then add a few opening remarks to set the scene for today's call. Starting with safety. The elimination of fatalities remains a top priority for us at Kumba. We are committed to achieving a safe and stable operating environment, where all our people are zero-harmed. Through our safe leadership drive, we are promoting psychological safety and the reporting of all unsafe work practices. I'm encouraged by the improvement in our safety performance. Our total recordable injury frequency rate improved from 1.55 at the end of 2022 to 1.10 at the end of the third quarter. Notably, Sishen has completed 7 years of production without a fatality. While we have made some progress, we know that safety is a journey. And we will continue focusing on strengthening our safety culture to ensure that all our people, and that includes our contractors, go home without harm to their loved ones each and every single day. Now moving on to operations. The focus on operational execution has proved effective with a notable step-up in performance. Year-to-date, by the end of September, waste mined had increased by 14% and saleable production by 4%, alongside a consistent improvement in product quality relative to the comparative period in 2022. That performance has been driven by a number of successful interventions, including HME improvement focus, which has resulted in increased truck and shovel availability as well as good progress on our planned run rate. And that's led to improvements in our feed stockpiles across the board. Operating and financial performance has, however, continued to be impacted by external factors, particularly ongoing logistics constraints from Transnet operations. Multiple challenges on rail, including derailments, have resulted in high stock levels at the mines while equipment failures and adverse weather conditions at the Saldanha Bay Port brought sales volumes down by 6% year-to-date. More broadly, as everyone knows, there continues to be a high level of macro volatility through a combination of global geopolitics, persistent inflation, high interest rates and broader market uncertainty. In the third quarter, year-to-date, we achieved an average realized price of $110 per tonne, around 10% above the benchmark price. Iron ore prices have continued to perform strongly since then. And sintering cuts in China to improve air quality, coupled with low lump stocks, have supported higher lump premium. Over the longer term, we remain positive about iron ore fundamentals, particularly for the carbon emission reduction properties of our Kumba high-quality iron ore products. However, we need to make sure that the business is set up for success without relying on macro recovery. And that's why we are keeping focus on our priorities of safety and sustainable value delivery. It's that discipline that helped us deliver an EBITDA margin of 52% in the first half despite our average realized prices decreasing by more than 22% compared to the first half of 2022. Our work with the National Logistics Crisis Committee, also called the NLCC, the Ore User's Forum, which includes all the other iron ore users of our export channel lines, and Transnet will be critical for future performance and making sure that we have a more sustainable logistics network. We must now build on our recent progress in terms of operational stability and adapt to Transnet's ongoing logistics constraints and so make the business more resilient and sustainable for the future. In today's call, I will spend some time on our optimization strategy and insights into the key metrics we are targeting to realize a more globally competitive business. But before we get into the details, let's take a look at the market. Timo is on the line, as Penny highlighted, to update you on the latest developments and what this means for our business. Over to you, Timo.

Thank you, Mpumi. After rebounding in the first quarter this year on the back of positive sentiment and a surge in demand from China's reopening, iron ore purchase declined between April and August as the distressed property market continued to weigh negatively on steel demand. From September onwards, iron ore markets turned positive again, underpinned by mills actively restocking following the drawdown of iron ore port inventories to 4-year lows. We've also seen a number of stimulus measures from China and lack of mandatory steel production cuts providing further price support. In late October, Beijing approved a RMB 1 trillion government bond program to support infrastructure investments, signaling that policymakers are stepping up support despite better-than-expected third quarter growth and that the central government is willing to leverage up to achieve economic growth. The statement of property segment was the Chinese government is considering providing another RMB 1 trillion of liquidity through the so-called Pledged Supplementary Lending policy to facilitate social housing construction and urban village renovation programs. These stimulus programs should add some support to the property market. And any contraction next year is likely to be modest compared to this year. In addition, Chinese regulators are said to be drafting a list of 50 developers eligible for a range of financing support. This list includes both private and state-owned developers. Markets have previously anticipated that China will implement mandatory steel output cuts to cap production levels at the same or lower levels compared to 2022. This would be similar to that imposed by the NDRC back in 2021 and '22. However, cuts have not been implemented this year as China did not want to cap economic activities. [indiscernible] production is therefore likely to be sustained at higher levels, supporting iron ore demand. Between January and October, [ throughput ] increased by 1.8% at 1.053 billion tonnes per annum while [indiscernible] output is up 2.6% at 897 million tonnes per annum. In markets outside of China, crude steel production declined by 1% October year-to-date to [ 832 million ] tonnes per annum. The decrease outside of China is led by Europe, Japan and Taiwan. In Europe, persistent high inflation and elevated interest rates dampened steel demand this year. Economic weakness in Europe could be a potential headwind next year as well. With inflation increases slowing, central banks are increasingly cautious about hiking interest rates and could even pause their rate hikes. Thus, going into next year, end user steel demand in regions outside of China, particularly Europe and the U.S., could benefit from lower interest rates and mills cost could also stabilize. On the supply side, seaborne iron ore volumes are forecast to rise by 4% or 58 million tonnes this year to 1.630 billion tonnes, led, as always, by Australia and Brazil. Going into next year, volume is likely to tick up only very marginally. Iron ore prices should stay supported for the remainder of the year and at least into the first quarter of next year as well. Stimulus announcements from China, lack of steel production cuts alongside low port and mill stock levels should all keep prices elevated. As we enter into Chinese New Year in February next year, mills will have to restock and activities should increase. Then a quick word about the lump premium. Lump premium has been rising since June and reached a high of $0.25 per dmtu in November but recently has pulled back to around $0.17 per dmtu on rising coke prices in China. But extremely low lump port stocks and intermittent sintering cuts are expected during the winter season. And these should both be supportive for lump premium into the year-end. I'll leave it at that for a quick market update, and will now hand you back over to Mpumi.

Thank you, Timo. Now turning to our production guidance for the full year 2023. Following reopening of the iron ore export channel line post the annual shutdown on the 15th of October, rail performance has been impacted by a number of derailments, speed restrictions and poor locomotive availability. Given the disappointing rail performance, we have taken the decisive action to lower volumes in the last few weeks of this year in order to manage the online stockpiles. As a result, we will deliver to the lower end of our production range and clear close to 2 million tonnes of saleable production stockpiles at the mines. Our full year guidance for waste mining has been narrowed to between 205 million and 215 million tonnes. This was previously 190 million to 220 million tonnes and the saleable production guidance to between 35 million and 36 million tonnes. This was previously 35 million to 37 million tonnes. Encouragingly, the performance of the Saldanha Bay Port has stabilized following the maintenance work. However, the stock levels at the port were impacted by rail and unfortunately decreased to suboptimal levels of around 700,000 tonnes. This has resulted in our sales guidance narrowing to between 36 million and 37 million tonnes, previously 36 million to 38 million tonnes. Now looking forward to 2024 to 2026. In view of the ongoing challenges in the logistics environment, which we believe will take a bit of time to resolve, we are reconfiguring our production plans to reflect what we believe is a more realistic view on rail capacity. Therefore, compared to the 5% to 6% growth previously anticipated, production has been revised to between 35 million and 37 million tonnes for the next 3 years. We believe that this level of production will allow us the flexibility to reconfigure our business, optimize our cost base, avoid building further saleable production stockpiles at the mines and still retain the ability to step production back up in the event that we see some positive developments on the logistics performance. So what is the business case for reconfiguration? Stepping back and looking at the downward trend in logistics performance, we have seen rail performance declining from 42 million tonnes in 2019 to 36 million tonnes in 2022. The impact on production and sales has been significant, not just for Kumba but also to our people, our local communities, our customers and the broader South African economy, given the value that our business can create and has created for many years. Declining sales and production also has a negative impact on our cost structure with C1 unit cost increasing from around $33 per tonne to $40 per tonne over the same period as we have maintained a structure needed to produce at full contractual capacity. As we reconfigure our production to align with logistics capacity, we also need to act quickly on cost to make sure that we have a resilient organization that is able to deliver for all our stakeholders for the long term by ensuring that we can continue to deliver stable and profitable production through any likely macro volatility. So let me now unpack the four critical elements of our optimization program. Firstly, the reconfiguration of our business started with optimizing our mine plans, which have been streamlined to expose ore and feed the processing plants at rates that match the revised production levels in line with available logistics capacity. Secondly, we conducted a comprehensive review of our cost base, looking at efficiency improvements and reducing spend on outside services and overheads. Thirdly, optimizing capital spend whilst ensuring that this does not affect safety, the integrity of our assets or the sustainability of our operations. And lastly, improving the efficiency of our balance sheet, including reducing working capital levels through the drawdown of work in progress and finished inventory. To ensure that we implement our initiatives on time with the right change management support to deliver the expected value, I have set up a transformation office. This is headed up by Gerrie Nortje, who joined us in July this year from De Beers, where he was one of their senior leaders since 2017 and was instrumental in achieving significant value in other change programs. The transformation office ensures focused, coordinated and consistent execution of our optimization initiatives across the entire business. A number of initiatives have already been risk-assessed and validated by the transformation office and are in the process of being implemented. As part of the optimization of our overhead cost base at Kumba, we streamlined our organizational structure in September with the consolidation of reporting levels and head office functions, resulting in over a 30% reduction of staff at our head office. As an example, we have combined various roles within various departments in our business, including safety, health and environmental, corporate affairs, human resources and some of the mining areas of our business. As we optimize our mine plans and refocus on improving our efficiencies, we are relooking at our sourcing model. This involves revising our contractor deployment strategy as well as a renewed focus on contractor management, where we continue to make use of our service partners. We also -- we have also put in place a robust change management program to ensure a smooth reconfiguration process. As we make these changes, it's important that we become more effective, and so we are strengthening and developing our capabilities by investing in our teams, collaborating with our OEM suppliers and customers and also working smarter by leveraging technologies and capabilities across the entire Anglo American group. Our priority is to ensure that we have the right people and the right skills that are committed to our purpose and delivering on our strategy. From a capital projects perspective, as part of the optimization planning, we have reviewed and challenged the scope of our capital projects to ensure that the spend is fit for purpose and that the timing is sequenced appropriately. Firstly, looking at Kapstevel South, which is the new pit that is part of Kolomela's current life of mine and contributes to approximately 1/3 of its production, as mentioned at half year, we have replaced the waste mining, given the production that has been lowered in line with rail constraints. Notwithstanding this, I'm pleased to say that this project has been a success and will be completed within budget. As part of our pit optimization review, we reduced the waste mined by 10 million tonnes in 2023. And we are on track for the delivery of first ore in the first half of next year. All major construction activities, including the mining infrastructure area, were completed in the third quarter. And the construction of the evaporation point will be completed in the fourth quarter. Turning to our ultra-high dense media separation, also called the UHDMS project, which involves the conversion of Sishen's dense media separation, or DMS, plant to the new UHDMS technology. Last year, we announced that we would be undertaking a full review of the project plan due to additional complexities identified during on-site detailed design work associated with working in an operating plant. The review required that we first complete the detailed engineering design on the various modules and modifications to allow for a risk reassessment of the construction schedule. And this has been completed. We are now considering the results of the mine plan reconfiguration work that I mentioned earlier to determine the optimum way forward for the UHDMS. And we should be in a position to provide a further update by mid-2024. Fundamentally, we remain confident that the UHDMS technology will play an essential role in Kumba's transition to a low-carbon future. It lowers the cutoff grades and reduces our mining strip ratio. It also increases product quality and offers optionality for life-of-mine extension. In view of these developments, we have not included the UHDMS technology in our forward-looking guidance. At this point, I will hand over to Bothwell, who will take you through the optimization process from a financial perspective.

Thank you Mpumi, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. So I'm going to take you through our unit cost guidance for the full year 2023. And then I'll touch on our cost optimization strategy, which informs our outlook for unit costs over the next 3 years. I'll then provide an update on our capital expenditure guidance for the full year 2023. Firstly, looking at our unit cost guidance. Cost inflation across our sites has averaged between 6% and 7% for the first half of the year. Fortunately, we do not see the significant cost pressures to the same extent as we did in 2022. Although diesel prices and supply chain input costs remain high, this is largely now in the base and the rate of increase has moderated this year. At the mine level, Sishen's unit costs are expected to end the year at the upper end of guidance. We, therefore, revised the guidance to between ZAR 570 and ZAR 590 per tonne. This was previously ZAR 540 to ZAR 570 per tonne. This reflects lower plant production due to the restricted rail availability that Mpumi spoke about as well as higher HME maintenance costs in line with our operational stability focus. Kolomela's increased production, combined with the benefit of cost savings, has largely offset higher mining costs and a lower deferred stripping capitalization rate. Accordingly, we have updated Kolomela's unit cost to between ZAR 480 and ZAR 500 per tonne. This was previously between ZAR 510 and ZAR 540 per tonne. The lower rate of cost inflation and improved production at Kolomela has helped offset lower production impacts at Sishen. This, combined with the benefit of a weaker exchange rate, has allowed us to reduce our C1 unit cost guidance for 2023 to USD 42 per tonne. This was previously USD 43 per tonne. If we look further out, our cost guidance reflects the benefits of our optimization program. Kumba is on a multiyear cost optimization journey. Our focus is on two things: the first one being cash cost reduction to protect our margin; and then the second one is capital expenditure optimization. Our C1 unit cost will be delivered over the next 3 years. Despite revising our medium-term production outlook in line with flat logistics performance and the ongoing cost inflation, our C1 unit cost is forecast to improve to between $38 and $40 per tonne over this period. This is at a constant currency of ZAR 19 to the U.S. dollar. We have set clear milestones to deliver the majority of savings by the end of 2024. This will allow us to absorb macro volatility and ensure we don't move beyond the third quartile of the margin curve. To date, we have identified between ZAR 2.5 billion and ZAR 3 billion of cost saving initiatives for 2024. These will be driven by reconfiguring our mine plan and reducing mining volumes and related costs, along with improving operating efficiencies. As we progress through this journey, we will do more work to identify and embed further cost savings into our plans. We've already made good way this year with our cost savings. At the half year, we had achieved ZAR 900 million of the ZAR 1 billion targeted for the full year 2023. This sets us up well from a cost culture perspective as we step up our focus on being more cost-competitive. If I turn to the balance sheet, we still remain a single commodity, single geography miner dependent on logistics availability. We have followed a disciplined capital allocation approach to ensure business is sustainable while delivering stakeholder returns and investing for long-term value creation. Our focus is on optimizing capital expenditure and working capital. If I look at our capital expenditure for the year, we expect to remain within our guidance of between ZAR 9 billion and ZAR 10 billion, having reduced this from between ZAR 11 billion and ZAR 12 billion in the first half already. To recap, the reduction was driven by expansion CapEx, reducing by ZAR 1.6 billion as we rephased mining at Kapstevel South as well as the UHDMS project, which is still under review. SIB CapEx decreased by around ZAR 0.5 billion as we optimized our HME spend and other projects within the portfolio. Deferred stripping, which makes up the rest of our CapEx, has reduced in line with mine plan volumes and related stripping ratios. In the medium term, SIB CapEx is expected to stay at current levels of around ZAR 5 billion per annum. This will be driven by optimized HME requirements from our mine plan and efficiency improvement work, our capital spares program to support equipment reliability and continuing to invest in safety and environmental improvements. Expansion CapEx will reduce as we have essentially completed our Kapstevel South project. And as Mpumi said, first ore is expected in the first half of 2024. We will be in a position to provide more details on the UHDMS project next year. As I wrap up, we are really stepping up our cost optimization drive and believe we have a robust plan to protect our margin while we adapt production within near-term logistics constraints. The progress we have already made on plan implementation gives us strong conviction that we can build in that additional resilience. Kumba is in a highly competitive position from a quality perspective. And we'll continue to optimize this to enhance our revenues. We are committed to disciplined capital allocation and getting the balance right between investing to sustain the business and delivering consistent shareholder returns. Our dividend policy remains unchanged at between 50% and 75% of headline earnings. We remain focused on protecting our balance sheet while continuing to unlock value and positioning the business for a sustainable future. Thank you. I'll now hand back to Mpumi.

Thank you, Bothwell. So in summary, there's no doubt that 2023 has been another challenging year. The logistical constraints are impacting businesses in South Africa significantly. And we need to work together with government through the National Logistics Crisis Committee to solve for this as fast as we can. We have seen the very significant effects of Eskom's load shedding on the South African economy. And we urgently need to arrest the impact that Transnet has on Kumba, our people, our communities and our country. To be sustainable, the logistics network needs capital injection and a reliable operator. I'm encouraged by the policy changes that are being recommended in the freight logistics road map and the opportunity that this will bring for private sector participation. However, we must not wait and hope for change or higher prices. It's important to act quickly, adapt our plans to the current reality, including a wide-ranging cost optimization program to manage the cost impact of lower production volumes over the guidance period while retaining the operational flexibility to ramp up volumes, should and when rail performance improve. From a base of $42 per tonne guided for this year, we reduced our C1 unit cost to between $38 and $48 per tonne over the next 3 years, even with the reduced production guidance. Our immediate focus is to deliver, as Bothwell said, ZAR 2.5 billion to ZAR 3 billion of cost savings identified for 2024. We have a comprehensive delivery plan to achieve this. The initiatives are centrally coordinated and tracked with key accountability and are underpinned by a robust change management program that leverages internal capabilities, allowing us to operate with a leaner corporate staff structure and systematically reduce the number of service providers that we work with. Despite ongoing pressure from the external environment, we have already delivered improved operational stability. And our high-quality iron ore products ensure that we are well placed to participate in the green steel market. We are also working with over 30% of our customers by sales volumes to help develop steelmaking technology with a lower carbon footprint. Kumba's value proposition remains robust. In the near term, we are unlocking value through safe and stable operations with the revised mine plan and step change in cost performance that significantly reduces the impact of factors beyond our control. In the medium term, this will be enhanced by reducing our carbon footprint through renewable energy and helping our customers meet their sustainability objectives with our unique carbon-reducing iron ore products. Over the long term, we remain positive about iron ore fundamentals. The adoption of Scope 3 carbon reduction interventions by steel manufacturers will continue to support demand for Kumba's high-quality iron ore products. And the decarbonization of our own operations will ensure our participation in the green steel market. Importantly, as I close, this year, Sishen celebrated its 70th year of operating in the Northern Cape, where we have played a critical role in the local economy. With the actions that we are taking today, we will be well positioned to continue doing this for decades to come. With that, I will now open up the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Shilan Modi of HSBC.

Given the announcements you and Anglo American made today around restructuring and rebasing volumes, what's the more or less operations like at the moment? And how are you managing that during this difficult period?

Thanks, Shilan. I've got to say, I mean, one of the first things that I said when I joined Kumba is when I first visited all the operations and I've commented that we have wonderful people at Kumba. That comment still stands. We have wonderful people at Kumba. And we recently, as Exco, visited the operations as part of our quarterly visit and are there again encouraged by the wonderful men and women that we have at Kumba. And that includes our contractors. We've been talking widely about the challenges and the changes that we need to drive and encouraging our people to actually give us ideas around additional things that we need to think of. And I've got to say that as part of our structural review programs, some of those ideas came from our people. So I'll say it again, I'm proud of the wonderful men and women that form part of the Kumba organization and the resilience that essentially our team has. And for me, it's the commitment where our teams are working together that makes me the most proud. Thank you.

The next question is from Tim Clark of SBG.

Firstly, thank you for taking the brave steps to restructure whilst trying to balance with all stakeholders. It's not an easy change, I'm sure. Can we just speak a little bit? I've got a few questions, the first one just about TFR and Transnet. At the interim results, there was the planned maintenance shut and there was hope that we would be removing significant amounts of speed restrictions from the line and that this was going to make quite a significant difference to the number of trains per week. And I wonder if you could just speak about sort of the current experience of what's going on in the rail and what went wrong with this derailment straight after the shut and whether your confidence has been maybe a little bit lessened that perhaps we would get an improvement? That's my first question.

Yes. Thanks, Tim. And as you said, it is a great step, but one that we believe we definitely need to take. So TFR did have their plant shut. That's the one that I said was completed on the 15th of October. And as you indicated, we had a derailment not long after that. And we've continued working with Transnet to understand what's happening in their space. And maybe a couple of things as I answer your question. One is they've clearly got an acting GCE in terms of Michelle and have also got an acting CEO of TFR, a person that's actually got great knowledge of our lines in terms of Russell Baatjies. And what's been positive is that with them coming in, they've actually been driving for collaboration and allowing us at Kumba, the Ore User's Forum, to continue working with them. And they've also been participating in the National Logistics Crisis Committee as well, which for me has been positive. So what subsequently happened, it's interesting. So we saw the initial challenges immediately after the shut. But we believe that they've managed to stabilize, albeit that they are not back to the contractual levels that we'd like to see. What's always important for us is that one has got to stabilize fast, and we talk about this when we talk about our operations as well, before they can drive for improvement. Because that allows them to see exactly where the challenges are. Clearly, we've still got some challenges, which is the reason why we've reduced our guidance going forward. Because we recognize that there continues to be maintenance backlog that needs to be done. And as that maintenance backlog essentially gets executed, one is unlikely to see a sharp improvement in performance that happens in a short period of time. We are mindful of that. But as we've always said, we'll continue collaborating with Transnet. But what's positive, linked to your question, is that we've seen the performance stabilizing post the derailment. And you said derailment, it wasn't just one derailment, it was a couple of derailments, but that stability is key.

Okay. And then just the fact that you've sort of got a fairly flat guidance for 3 years, is that a conservative view that you're hopeful of beating? Or is that just indicative of a very deep level of concern that actually it's going to be quite tough, given the operations, to get some kind of incremental volume?

Yes. So Tim, I think it's more realistic. So it's not -- we haven't looked at being conservative. But whenever we talk about guidance, we take on quite a realistic view. So great work is taking place to turn around Transnet or a lot of work. But we are mindful of the fact that it will take a little bit of time. So if you look at maintenance backlog, in order to clear your backlog, you actually have to stop the system in order to fix, which is always the right thing to do. Because clearly post the fix, you then see that improvement in performance. So we believe it's realistic. And I guess, for me, what's also important is the work that's been done through the National Logistics Crisis Committee. Because if you think about it, that's sponsored by the president. It includes the various ministries, whether you're talking about the Department of Public Enterprises, which is clearly the shareholder rep for Transnet, or you're talking about the Department of Finance or the Department of Transport, who holds the policy part. What's critical is the fact that, that structure is actually operational. And we are positive about that structure, but we are realistic that by virtue of the challenge, it will take a little bit of time. And that's what is built into the guidance.

And then just sorry, my last question, just for Timo, hopefully, just in terms of steel, the question that I've been asked time and time again in the last little while is with very weak land sales and housing starts and confidence in Chinese real estate, there's clearly some shorter-term support for completions of the backlog. I just wonder if you could maybe just speak to what you think the balancing act there. Do you think it's a return of confidence? Or do you think ultimately these low levels of sales and starts has to drag into real estate enhanced steel and iron ore demand?

Tim, I think what we're seeing is a stabilization of the property sector in China. And with the support that's been announced, that stabilization should turn into a little bit of positive momentum from here onwards. I mean, the support has been announced is not insignificant, right? That Pledged Supplementary Lending program of RMB 1 trillion over the next 4 years, that's significant. What I think is also very significant is that list that the government has said to have been drafting of 50 developers that would have access to financing. So that's a clear signal that the government is very, very keen to stabilize and improve the fortunes of the property sector, seeing how important that is. Now that, I think, is going to underpin the overall steel picture in China, which, of course, is very good for iron ore. And if all of that happens, what we might see next year is that exports of steel out of China might move back a little bit. As there is lesser domestic demand and less exports move back, that might actually be a positive overall outcome for markets outside of China. So yes, I think what we're seeing is stabilization, which should have reached the bottom [indiscernible] onwards.

Yes, the iron ore price has been strong. And I think it's caught a lot of us by surprise of its strength through the year. Interesting comment. That's all from my side.

The next question is from Ian Rossouw of Barclays.

Just one or two follow-ups on Tim's question on TFR. If we -- Mpumi, if we assume there's no improvement in Transnet, I mean, what's a realistic sort of destocking -- or obviously, you've not given sales guidance. But what would be a realistic sort of incremental sales over production you can expect at current Transnet levels? And then I guess, potentially if there is some improvement, just, I guess, what could the destocking be over the next couple of years? And then secondly, just on the UHDMS, understand we're going to get an update next year. But I mean, with obviously this constrained a lot of iron ore inventories, is this not an opportunity to have a slightly extended shutdown at Sishen, when you do install this, to reduce the complexity, given you don't really need to produce as much at the moment?

Yes. No, thanks, Ian. So firstly, if we look at TFR, so we've provided guidance clearly from a production perspective but also against the sales for this year. So from a sales perspective, we've said that we've now moved the range to 36 million to 37 million tonnes. And if one then looks forward from a production perspective, typically, we've tied and clearly managed that to the sales volumes. What we are considering, however, is what we said. So you noticed or I did indicate earlier that we are reducing our production for the last couple of weeks. And I indicated that if one looks at where we were as of the end of the third quarter, where we're sitting with circa 9 million tonnes of saleable stocks at both the mines clearly and the ports that we most probably will clear about 2 million tonnes of that. So that gives you an idea in terms of what, I guess, we're looking at for this year. Going forward, I guess, the biggest thing is that we've clearly reduced our production guidance. We are in a space -- and I guess, I'll link it back to what Tim essentially said, still we'll continue working with Transnet to make sure that the performance improves. We believe we are being realistic in the numbers. But with us working with Transnet, if there is any upside, I guess, we'll use that to essentially continue clearing out some of the stock. But the first move, which is what we're doing this year, is quite a bit. And I guess, for me, maybe the last thing that I'll mention on the first one is the fact that we are not just reducing production without taking actions to reduce cost. So that's the biggest thing. It is about saying, because that's what you do when you reconfigure a business, it gives you an opportunity to take a step back and look at the four critical steps that I mentioned as you essentially look at reducing cost. And clearly, what we'll keep in mind with regards to the right levels of stock that we want to hold is also the UHDMS side. We've always said that we need to keep a little bit of stock for when we do the tie-in. On the UHDMS itself, I mean, we believe that the critical thing that we need to get right is the essence of the optimization work that we've just done. So with that, I indicated that the first step was the review of our mine plans. And we run an integrated business. So it's now about looking at how the UHDMS fits in to what it is that we are looking at from an optimization program perspective. Because ultimately, we look at our business more holistically. And that's what we'll come back with around about the middle of the year. I think your comment around doing an extended shut is -- I understand where it would be coming from. But I think you also understand that as we run an integrated business, we actually want to look at our revised mine plans, look at our business more holistically and clearly link what it is that we'll be doing from a UHDMS perspective to the overall program of work that we're doing, which is what we'll be doing. So we can see that, where that may make sense, to essentially do everything sooner. But you can't because you still need to -- from -- and I guess, an element of execution -- of executing a massive capital project, you still need to properly plan. You need to procure some of the items that have long lead times. So you can't just immediately stop everything and do work. You need to properly plan for that. And those are the fundamentals of executing a massive capital project [indiscernible]. So we did consider it, but we don't think it's the right thing to do. We need to be logical about what it is that we'll do and when we'll do it. And if Glen wants to add anything -- sorry, maybe do the follow-up. I wanted to check if Glen wanted to add anything. But maybe let's do your follow-up first.

Yes, can I just push you a little bit on this sort of TFR line? So obviously, the guidance, as you said, this year is 1 million tonnes of sales above production. Given what you know today of TFR assuming no improvement, is it a sort of 1 million tonnes incremental sales over production realistic in '24 or '25?

Okay. So are you trying to get me to give you the sales guidance for '24? I'll give that to you...

I do understand all the challenges and -- but it's just like based on today's performance of Transnet, what do you think is realistic in terms of sales?

Yes, let me come back -- let me rather come back to you [indiscernible]. Because as you understand, we still want to see the full impact of the shut. I've got to say, maybe just a comment on Transnet, what's also been positive, as I said, is that post the shut, we saw some stability from a port perspective as well, which is actually quite good. Because prior to the shut, we had a couple of issues. Clearly, we had the weather challenges. And we also had a couple of mechanical breakdowns. But what we want to see is we want to see the full, call it, output of what it is that the shut has done over a slightly longer period. Because we don't just look at, call it, narrow windows. So I'll have to say I'll come back to you with regards to that. And I want to check if Glen wants to add anything.

We're obviously keeping the amount of stock required for the tie-in for UHDMS. Just to say that as we've done the detailed engineering, we've also got a lot more resolution and detail on that shut. So our confidence in the duration of the shut has improved significantly. We will definitely balance the stock required for the shut, taking into account TFR's performance. So we'll update you on that as we progress.

Thanks, Glen. But again, we should see our stock levels continuing to essentially reduce. Similar to what we've had to do now when thinking about levels of stock that we carry, we'll continue with that thinking going forward.

The next question is from Nkateko Mathonsi of Investec.

I only have one question, and it's more on the CapEx. You gave us guidance as far as sustaining CapEx is concerned for the next 3 years at about ZAR 5 billion. So I wanted to get an idea how much CapEx is still outstanding for Kapstevel South, which would fall into next year, just to have a bit of an idea how big CapEx could be for next year?

Thanks, Nkateko, and thanks for joining us as well. Bothwell?

Thanks, Mpumi. So I think as I said in the -- when I was giving a brief overview, Kapstevel South is, by and large, complete. A lot of the work will be completed this year. And so you won't see a significant amount of spend coming through next year. It's largely completion and a little bit more stripping. So it's not significant amounts coming through.

The next question is from [indiscernible] of [indiscernible].

My question was actually answered. It was in relation to the finished stockpiles at both mines. But I think Mpumi went over that, it's about 2 million tonnes that need to be cleared. But you are very much welcome to verify that.

Yes, you did get that right, [indiscernible]. So we were sitting at circa 9 million tonnes as of the end of the third quarter. We are reducing production right now. And we should be able to reduce also high levels by circa 2 million tonnes.

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions in the queue. And I'd like to hand back to Penny for some closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you so much. Before we close the call, just a big, big thank you here again for joining us. As you know, we never take the time for granted. And what we also like is that whenever you ask us questions, you actually also give us advice. And believe it or not, we always listen and we can see that. So Ian, thank you for bringing that. As we said in our SENS, if you looked at our SENS, I mean, that's exactly what it is that we are doing from a business perspective. We are looking at our business. We are not, I guess, ignoring the challenges that we sit with. We remain positive from the actions that the NLCC will drive. But we are mindful of the fact that, that will take a little bit of time. And as a result, we are looking at ourselves as a business and saying, "Well, how do we drive for value during this time?" And clearly, we will continue working with Transnet, the Ore User's Forum and government around the challenges itself. I think that's it from our side. Penny, I don't know if you want to add anything else?

Just for me to add, first, to everyone on this call, thank you very much for your time and for joining us this afternoon. If you have any other questions, please reach out to me. And with that, I'd just like to wish you a safe and happy holidays ahead if you are going away. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's event, and you may now disconnect your lines.