Lifezone Metals Limited (LZM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm very pleased to welcome you to Lifezone's webcast on the initial assessment for our flagship Kabanga Nickel project. My name is Evan Young, and I'm the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Capital Markets. We will finish today's event with a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please feel free to contact me directly at [email protected] for any follow-up questions that are not addressed during today's call. Let's get started. Before we dive into the details, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements made are not historical facts but may be considered forward-looking statements. These are based on current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. Please review our SEC filings for a discussion of these risks and uncertainties. This presentation is for informational purposes only, and it does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. We encourage you to consult your own advisers before making any investment decisions. All right. Moving along. On today's call, we have Chris Showalter, our Chief Executive Officer; Dr. Mike Adams, our Chief Technology Officer; and Gerick Mouton, our Chief Operating Officer. As previously mentioned, after the presentation, we will have a Q&A session where you can engage directly with the team. Chris, over to you.

Okay. Good morning. Thank you, Evan, and welcome, everyone, today. We're really excited to be here. This is really a historic milestone for not only Lifezone, but also for Tanzania. This is really the first economic study in Kabanga's 50-year history that's been released. And so today, through the initial assessment filed under S-K 1300, we're excited to really demonstrate the robustness and the exciting economics that we have been able to deliver through the team. What this study does, and we're looking to really explain the vertically integrated strategy that we've laid out. And this is a more capital-efficient stage process, and this will go through the underground mining concentrator as a stage [indiscernible] that will be followed by the hydrometallurgical refinery that we are going to be developing in Kahama. And this really provides the foundation for what will drop out of this kind of what we look at as kind of a master plan to DFSs, the first of which will be delivered in July on the mine and the concentrator. And I think when you look at the standards we've adhered to, the tremendous amount of work has gone into this. So we demonstrate the economic potential of the Kabanga nickel deposit, which I think has been widely known, but we've also outlined here the standards we've achieved, both on the ESG side, but also excitingly, looking at the future exploration potential that we've identified on our special mining license. And that really indicates that Kabanga has a potential to be a real multigenerational project for a very long life. This is the culmination of a tremendous amount of work not only from Lifezone, but the Tembo team and all our stakeholders and government as well. So really excited to move forward. And with that, why don't we go to the next slide? So Kabanga really has been well known in terms of its exceptional positioning on the grade curve. And I think this really shows what a true Tier 1 asset Kabanga is. This data is from S&P Capital IQ, and it reflects kind of the combined value of not only the nickel, but the copper and cobalt in our resource. And I think a lot of people on this call know a lot about the Kabanga deposit specifically and its potential. That's been widely known for quite some time, but let's kind of get into how the study has been able to transform the potential of Kabanga that's been known into the next stage. So with that, I'm going to turn it over to my Chief Operating Officer, Gerick, who's been leading the study team. And yes, Gerick, over to you.

Yes. Thank you, Chris. Next slide, please, Evan. So the initial assessment really reflects the combination of a tremendous amount of hard work by the Lifezone team and our primary consultants, specifically OreWin, who were looking after the mineral resource estimate and the update of 2024 and DRA as the primary consultant putting the initial assessment together with all the subconsultants. And I think everybody is extremely proud of what was achieved considering that this is the first economic results ever published on the Kabanga deposit. The initial assessment envisions a 22-year mine plan and it is based on measured, indicated and inferred resources with a 3.4 million tonne per annum underground mine across the 5 different zones, as you can see in the top right-hand figure by making use of long haul stopping, mechanized mining and paste backfill. The ramp-up and the contract mining strategy ensures good cost control and having tenders back from the market basically provides us with execution readiness. Next slide. So as Chris was saying, Kabanga is right up there in terms of upgrade and the initial assessment includes the processing of almost 70 million tonnes grading at 1.93% nickel, good copper grades at 0.26% and cobalt at 0.14%. The flow sheet for the concentrator is conventional throttling with crushing circuit and wet grinding and flotation and dewatering, which is all well-known and commercially operated. Extensive metallurgical test work has been taken place with lots of test work to build up that robust flow sheet. And we expect strong recoveries, which come from test work for nickel, 87.3%, 95.7% for copper and 89.6% for cobalt. That results in a very high nickel concentrate of 17.3% with low impurities ideal for refining. Over to Mike for a little bit of a discussion on the hydrometallurgical refinery.

Thanks, Evan, and Gerick. So this refinery is certainly central to the integrated strategy of Lifezone Metals. The refinery is going to be located in the Buzwagi special economic zone. It will use our hydrometallurgical process. We've tested it extensively at our Simulus laboratory in Perth to batch and bench and pilot scale, and we will be preceding the full-scale construction with a demonstration plant as well. So the flow sheet includes pressure oxidation, neutralization, solvent extraction, electrowinning and crystallization steps. Those are the main unit operations. We will be producing 50,000 tonnes of nickel sulphate, hexahydrate per annum, 50,000 tonnes of contained nickel that is, 7,000 tonnes of copper cathode and 4,000 tonnes of cobalt contained in cobalt sulfate, hexahydrate. So those are annual figures. And as you can see, the refinery recoveries are very high and for all across all 3 metals. So that's in a nutshell, the refinery, and I'll hand back to Evan.

Thanks, Mike. I think one of the challenges for Kabanga over the 50 years has always been logistics, being 1,500 kilometers away from the port of Dar es Salaam. However, with the latest investment that's gone into bulk infrastructure and especially that of rail within Tanzania, it's really unlocked the Kabanga deposit so to enable concentrate to be shipped, to be trailed all the way to Dar es Salaam port, including any refined products in the future that's coming from the refinery. So the plan is to truck the concentrate from the Kabanga mine around 350 kilometers from there to a town called Isaka, which is like a dry port. And from there, it will go on the new standard gauge railway all the way to Dar es Salaam for export. Once the refinery is ready, it will be trucked to Kahama, which is the town just before Isaka, where final products will be produced. And from there, it will then also be loaded at Isaka under the same SGR rail, we will then obviously deliver to the Port of Dar es Salaam for bulk loading into sea freight. On the right-hand side, you can see the kind of assumptions that's been made with regards to rolling stock and also the use of flexible bulk containers, especially for the concentrate, which can be reused and sent back to Kabanga. And then obviously, for final products, we will make use of containers on the rail. Next slide. We've always applied higher standards and best practices in terms of everything that we do at Kabanga. And we do meet all of the IFC performance standards, equator principles, the global industry standards on tailings management for tailings dams, along with the Australian National Committee on large dams (ANCOLD) and also the International Council of Mining and Metals. So we do meet and envisage to meet all of these standards as we progress through all the studies in the initial assessment and also towards the feasibility study. And it's good for us to align with that, especially to make sure that we do meet world's best practice. We've completed a number of environmental and social impact assessment across the project, and a number has already been approved by the Tanzanian government. Our resettlement action plan has been completed, and that will obviously ensure a fair and sustainable relocation for the affected people, 96% of all the required cash compensations has already been paid with 4% outstanding for people that's unknown, which is ongoing. And our TSF facility will be managed sustainably. 52% of that will be going back underground as paste fill and the rest will be depositioned in the TSF with subaqueous deposition. And our closure plans include water shedding land form and multilayer covering. Next slide. But we've also identified as part of the resource is that there's significant upside when it comes to resource growth potential over some high priority areas. We've identified 4 of these exploration targets, Safari Link, where we punched a couple of holes a year ago on the outskirts, which is basically to the north of Tembo and Safari Link -- the Safari extension to the south, we've got a hill called Rubona Hill and then also a Block 1 South. So there's 4 areas that's been identified. And according to our QP, these targets represent 17.5 million to 23.5 million tonnes, grading 1.9% to 2.1% nickel equivalent. They're all supported by geophysics, historical drilling, as I said, and geological continuity, and the upside could significantly extend the mine life and obviously enhance the project value. With that, Chris, back to you for the economic analysis. Thank you.

Okay. Great. Thanks, Gerick. Okay. So what we've basically been able to start as part of this presentation is really the quality of the study, the high standards we're adhering to, but not only that, but also the future potential for exploration opportunities. But really, what we're wanting to do is let's -- we're disclosing numbers for the first time, as we said, in our 50-year history. So let's look at how we benchmark against the industry. And really, what I want to highlight in this slide are the results of -- in terms of all-in sustaining costs because that's really a metric that we very much focused on -- and what we're demonstrating here is that we do have the potential to be one of the lowest cost nickel producers globally, and that's been a huge focus of us to demonstrate that potential that everyone knows Kabanga has had, but we're in a strong position now to deliver. So when you look at our all-in sustaining cost here at $2.71 per pound, what that shows is really the ability for Kabanga to position for long-term profitability and resilience despite other competitive forces in the industry and competitors. And I think when you look at that all-in sustaining cost, we benefit significantly from the byproduct credits of copper and cobalt. So one way to look at this is the copper, and the cobalt are essentially covering the cost of the nickel production, which is a unique position to be in as a mine. And I think that is critically important from when you look at how Kabanga is going to be positioned going forward. And I'd like to highlight that on the next slide. So how are we positioned against Indonesia? And I think we have to talk about Indonesia. We have to talk about the dominant position they've established in the market and how are we going to be able to position ourselves given those dynamics in the industry. And so what you see here is that all-in sustaining cost positions us firmly in the lower section of the cost curve. And so we have to be able to really sit below the competitive 65% market share of the Indonesian market. And I think this is benchmarking the results of the IA. So this gets us under $7,000 per tonne all-in sustaining cost, which is meaningfully lower than the rest of the industry. And so how is Kabanga going to differentiate itself and compete with Indonesia, it's because we have the potential to be a cheaper producer, more profitable because of the superior grade. And I think that's always been the potential of Kabanga, but what we've been able to do with this IA is start mapping out the economics and really the indications of how we're going to be able to deliver that. Next. Okay, so getting into some of the details. So when you read the initial assessment, we're demonstrating that we have the ability to -- we're talking about $23.6 billion in overall total revenue, $8 billion in free cash flow, which is critical because when it comes to the ability for project financing, Kabanga with the superior grade is a project that delivers material free cash flow, and that's going to give us a lot of leverage when it comes to looking at the financial structures going forward. The overall -- from a valuation perspective, we're looking at an NPV of $2.37 billion in the fully integrated project and a 22.9% IRR. So having a preproduction CapEx number that is sub $1 billion, including contingency. And I can tell you that in terms of our internal forecast and what we're targeting, this is incredibly close to what we were expecting. So the teams really met the expectations in terms of the mining concentrator CapEx that we were anticipating. So again, tremendous job by the teams. The metric we really focused on, and we really wanted to deliver on in this study was the capital efficiency. So to have a capital efficiency of over 1 is always a key target when looking at these projects. And so from the mining concentrator from a preproduction CapEx, we hit 2.1. So really strong results in terms of that metric. And then if you include the refinery CapEx, we're still above 1 at 1.3. So really strong results in our view that we wanted to deliver over 1% capital efficiency, and we did that not only on a very strong number on the mining concentrator, but also for the fully integrated project. Next. Okay, so when you look at the -- so one of the things that kind of we focus on, really, it's where some of the risks, the risks going to be in nickel prices. That's one that's kind of unavoidable. But what we're positioned to do is -- and I think what this chart shows is the upside. And so at higher prices, looking at the dark blue line nickel price. And I always kind of -- I like to kind of reference when Rick Rule came into our project and invested in Lifezone about 1.5 years ago, I was very straightforward and Rick kind of indicated he likes to invest in Tier 1 assets at the bottom of the cycle. Now very hard to time that, but I think what you can see is, we are very much, I think people would agree that we're at the bottom of the cycle in terms of a correction in the overall nickel market. Mines have closed, supply still overhangs, but that's being worked through, and prices have kind of bottomed out here around $15,000 to $16,000 per tonne of nickel. Now to come to market with a study like this to deliver these types of robust economics at the bottom of the cycle and then have, as you can see, a lot of leverage to the upside in the nickel price. That's where I think the -- for investors, I think that's really the opportunity is to look at Kabanga as a way where you can be levered to the nickel prices recovering in the future. And you want to be building -- you want to be delivering a Tier 1 asset when prices are poised to increase. And so I think we can see -- we can look at the forecast of where nickel demand is going to be going versus supply. I think by the time we get into peak production; we're going to be a very -- hopefully in a very strong position to time that correctly. So really well positioned to higher nickel prices, and I think that's something that's part of the blue-sky potential for the project going forward. Okay. So looking ahead, and I want to wrap this up so we can get to some Q&A. So we're positioned right now. We're on track to deliver the DFS in July 2025. So that is coming, and that will obviously include a reserve statement. And the other thing I'd like to highlight is the positioning of Kabanga and Lifezone in the overall energy transition and the attention we're getting as one of the next premier sources of nickel, copper, cobalt as a critical mineral project. And I think that's evidenced by the support we get from the U.S. Development Finance Corporation, where we're going through a process to bring in project insurance through political risk insurance, also project financing, and we're also working with the EXIM Bank on this new supply chain resiliency initiative, which is unique liquidity and funding for critical metals project, which is actually dusting off a legislative mechanism from post World War II to ensure supply chain resiliency. So that complemented by the MOU we've signed with JOGMEC starts to frame a really, really strong base of additional stakeholders that are coming into the project and have the potential to be part of this next phase of getting into construction development and financing. And so this is all wrapped into the next stage of how we're going to be demonstrating to the market the project will be coming into a funding situation. So really excited. Congrats again to the team, not only the technical team, but also the Tembo management team in Tanzania, the Tanzanian government and especially the team in Australia with Simulus and all the work that's been done there on the technical side. So congrats to everyone. I was really looking forward to today to getting these numbers out and more to come. So with that, I'll turn it back over to Evan for Q&A.

Great. Thank you, Chris. Okay. [Operator Instructions] Our first question from the Q&A box. Can you elaborate on the timeline and key milestones between now and the completion of the feasibility study in July 2025?

Yes, I can take that. So the key announcement today on the IA will still be followed by the DFS. The DFS is going to be the report, as you said, in kind of mid-July, we're targeting. That will be the report that will really outline in more detail the project timelines that will declare the reserve on the mineral statement. And that's going to be the more definitive bankable report going into the next stage, and that will be the anchor study for the fundraising and the project financing. So I think between now and the DFS, I think really, it's going to be the teams that have complemented them on the work they've done getting the IA up, but there's still the DFS where everyone's got heads down, focused on getting that study out. But what should be taken from this report today, there's going to be a lot of consistencies from the numbers we put out today that will come in the DFS. That will be just a silo distilled mine concentrator report coming out. So I think all the timelines will really come through that release. And I think everyone will be a lot more in the know in terms of how we're looking to map out those timelines over the period going forward. But yes, so I would say focus now is on that DFS delivery.

Thank you, Chris. And another one that's come through the Q&A box. What are the biggest risks or challenges you foresee in advancing Kabanga through to production?

Yes. Thanks. I'll take that again. I think we've tackled some of the bigger challenges right now, which is releasing that first milestone study. The DFS going forward, I think the biggest challenge for us was demonstrating to the market that we could sit lower on the cost curve and insulate ourselves from the price volatility that is really being detailed from the Indonesian market. I think that's been the biggest challenge for us by far is ensuring that we would be in the strongest potential competitive position as a project. I think it's going to be very challenging for additional nickel projects to move forward based on the dominance that Indonesia has demonstrated. But I think the challenge of Indonesia, I think things are going to get more difficult there. I think when you look at the market in Indonesia and the Indonesian government, I think they've clearly messaged to the market that they have kind of won the market share game and now they're going to be focused on pricing, which they do have the influence given how they've, as I said, dominated the market recently. So I think for us, that was the biggest challenge. Can we sit lower in the cost curve? Can we compete? And can we insulate ourselves from the dynamic in the market of Indonesia currently. And so I think that's -- that to us has been the biggest risk. I don't know, Gerick, if there's anything on the project side risk-wise, you would want to highlight going forward outside of getting the next DFS study out mid-July?

No. I think the time we've spent on all the study work and derisking some of those key challenges has been really one of the things we focused on. And as you say, Chris, making sure that preproduction capital number is as low as we can get it and deferring the nonessential critical items to a later stage, I think, was really important. So a lot of focus on that. From a -- normally, people would ask what kind of risks are there with infrastructure and especially bulk infrastructure. I think I've already covered the rail, which is basically derisked by the government of Tanzania. Another one is always power. But with the commissioning of the new hydro power stations within Tanzania, the power problem or the challenge that they faced as a country has also been mitigated. And we've got a supply line of 220 kVA that's coming in from TANESCO, who is the national power supplier over 83 kilometers to the Kabanga site. And that's all being managed as we speak with plans in place for them to commence that construction as soon as possible. So and I really think some people might say that mining development and getting into the underground is always a challenge and could be a risk. We've got very competent rock, we are quite shallow into the deposit, and we're making use of conventional decline access, which basically derisk the entire mine development plan. So I think we've managed to derisk some of those key risk items that normally pops up in a project. But there's still a couple more that obviously we will work on as you continue to develop the project. No project goes ever without any risks that -- and then we have to keep mitigating those as a project team as we progress through execution.

Okay. We have a question on the line from Richard [indiscernible]. Sorry, Richard, we can't hear you. You might be muted still. We perhaps we'll have to try after the call, if you want to follow up with me directly, we'll get your question answered. We have another question in the Q&A box. Indonesia is raising royalties on nickel producers. Is there a risk that Tanzania may follow such a trend down the road?

Thanks. I think our experience in Tanzania right now has been incredibly supportive. And where Tanzania is right now is, they've really kind of embraced inward investment. Mining is a huge focus for them. So what they've been doing is really supporting us through a number of different ways to ensure that this project moves forward. I think they -- this is a key strategic priority project for Tanzania. It is -- it will be classified as a strategic priority project, which comes ideally with additional incentives. So the support we're seeing from the Tanzanian government is really, I would say, I would emphasize that support we're getting rather than worrying about any future changes in fiscal regime. Our framework agreement, which is the grounding legal document that guides all our legal relationships with Tanzania's partners. Everything from a tax perspective, everything is encapsulated in there. That's a very strong, robust agreement. And I think that's really the foundation of the relationship between us and the government of Tanzania. So really the positive support. Tanzania wants to see development. They want to see this project move forward. We got a lot of support from them. So if anything, it's on us now to deliver and move forward on the timelines that we've articulated and we've committed to. And I can tell you that the Tanzanian government is working hand-in-hand with us on every step. So actually a very, very positive constructive relationship with the government of Tanzania. That's a critical success factor as far as we're concerned, just seeing the project come to fruition.

Okay. Great. We have a question here from Ross [indiscernible]. We'll see if we can get this to work this time. Seem to be having some issue there. So sorry, Ross, we'll try to get you later again. Okay. On that note, I think that ends all of the questions that we have today. Thank you, everyone, for attending today's event. If you do have any additional questions, please feel free to follow up with me directly at [email protected], and I'd be happy to answer any questions offline. Thanks again and enjoy the rest of your day.

Thanks all.