Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the 20th Annual Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference. Next up and the last in the fireside chat line today, but certainly not least, we have the Lincoln Electric team represented by CFO, Gabe Bruno. Gabe, thanks for joining us.

Thanks for having us, Bryan.

Of course. Of course. To start things off, I guess, for those a little newer to the LECO story, I think Lincoln Electric is pretty well known in industrial circles. But for those perhaps a bit newer, maybe briefly touch on company history, underlying drivers, where you stand now, Higher Standard 2025 Strategy you have in place. Perhaps touch on the scorecard today.

Yes. So thanks, Bryan, and thank you all for joining us in the conference and your interest in Lincoln Electric. So I could start off and just say this is our 130th year in business in 2025. So we're excited to progress our market-leading position in arc welding solutions. We're also a leader in the industry in automation capabilities and solutions into the market. And we've got a couple of very interesting growth adjacencies with additive and EV charging capabilities. So very much positioned in our key strategic theme of driving profitable growth. And along those lines, when we think about a target that we established in 2020, which is now we're in the last year of our Higher Standard 2025 Strategy of driving high single-digit, low double-digit growth that is both organic and inorganic growth that includes drivers to our acquisition strategy of being 300 to 400 basis points of CAGR on growth and then introducing solutions, technology, the acceleration of our automation footprint within our business. So our strategy is anchored on accelerating growth. We have a long history of continuing to shape our operating model. So we had targeted another 200 basis points of improvement in our operating profit margins during the strategy period. We continue to drive very disciplined operations around cash flow management. We have working capital objectives, which are in the top decile-type performance at 15%. We have a target cash conversion of 100%. We have a balanced strategic perspective of capital allocation, which prioritizes growth. That's internal investment as well as acquisitions and then returning cash to shareholders. When you think about the compounding impact of our strategy on earnings, our target on -- CAGR on EPS is the high teens, low 20s percent. So those are the targets that we established across our business for our strategy. Now how are we doing? When we think about growth, one thing was that we put a collar around how much pricing that we take credit for and growth and put a collar of 2%. So right now, we're tracking the high single digits, about 8% through 2024 in growth. If you exclude the collar we have on pricing, we're about 11%, so right within our objectives in terms of growth. When you think about the margin profile, so we said essentially going from 14% over the last cycle, which was 13.7% to 16%, we're right on top of that. So we're at 15.7% at the end of '24. Over the last 3 years, we've averaged 17.1% in all the discussions, even in this environment is for the kind of margin profile that are ahead of the objectives. So we're very pleased on how that has progressed. Generating a lot of cash. Our EPS CAGR is on the high end of the range. So we're into about 22% type of CAGR through the end of 2024, very much on top of our objectives in terms of ROIC. We're ahead of the targets we established. Target is to be within 18% to 20% ROIC, and that enables growth, particularly on the M&A side of our business. And we're ahead of that as well in the low 20s, 22% type of ROIC. So we're progressing well on the execution of our strategy and very much focused on driving profitable growth in our business for the long term.

Understood. Appreciate the -- kind of the walk-through. And kudos to your teams for putting up the numbers that you have, certainly over the last 1.5 years, maintaining that kind of return on capital, pretty impressive.

Thanks, Bryan.

I don't think you should strip away price, though, in the framework. Price is a beautiful thing.

I agree. But that's how we -- that's -- I agree with you, but that's how we want -- we want our team to truly focus on penetrating into end markets with solutions. And pricing, while important for us in protecting our model, we want to lead with the solutions that we have across our business.

Absolutely. Understood. And you do have pretty diversified exposures there. Obviously, there's been some end-market compression that kind of continues, not to the healthiest of backdrops, I think, is fair to say. But given you do touch so much through manufacturing, construction, energy, et cetera, always helpful to hear you walk through end-market trends, what your team is seeing and then what maybe on the horizon.

Yes. So I'd start off and just think long term, we are well positioned across all the end markets in driving towards long-term growth. So we're pretty excited about our position in automotive, in heavy industries, in general industries, energy, structural infrastructure. And we're very well on top of how we are progressing those short term. So to give you a sense, in the first quarter, you saw, Bryan, that 4 out of the 5 end markets that we track direct sales into the markets, we were up. And -- but the story is a little different depending on what end market that we're speaking to. So let me just kind of walk through a little bit what that means to us. So let's start with automotive. Automotive is about 20% of our business. It's a completely different story when we think about capital investment versus production. Consumable activity is servicing our production levels at our customers, while capital investment, which largely anchors around automation, was stronger, easier comps year-over-year in general from an automation standpoint, but you're seeing the progression of some of the longer lead time projects taken hold in this first quarter. So you had positive on capital investment on the automotive side. You had consumables down kind of mid-single digits, which is an important factor when we think about where are we on the automotive production cycle, which is one of the reasons why we point to some caution in looking at full year type volumes when you look at our business. But that's the automotive part of our business. When you think about general industries, we were up mid-single digits. That's about 32% of our business. And when you think about the drivers, we saw more strength in HVAC, that kind of drove some improvement in the overall end market. So that is coming through Harris. We haven't seen consistency around broad industrial production throughout all the different geographies. And I think you're tracking the same thing we're tracking. So real industrial production is kind of flattish and slightly down to the sentiment. And PMI just not has been consistent in looking at any level of expansion and just been a long malaise in just navigating through contraction. And then peeling the onion on PMI behind new orders, inventory levels, production, et cetera. So a little bit more challenged in some of the underlying longer-term trends on industrial production or PMI. Then when you think about heavy industries, heavy industry is about 19% of our business. I mean we were down first quarter high teens. It's more of the same. We knew coming into the year that in -- particularly ag would continue to be constrained when you think about all the destocking work, some of the big players in ag needing to work through destocking. We're seeing a little bit of improvement there, but not enough for us to change our posture in how we're servicing that end market. Some of the other parts of heavy industries like mining or construction, shipbuilding, that's more resilient, that's held up. But we expect compression in the heavy industry end markets through the balance of the year. So that's in a pretty important part of our market. We're bullish on energy. Energy is about 16% of our business. We were up low single digits, more strength around power generation, a little bit tougher comps within oil and gas. Oil and gas, about 2/3 of our energy end market and what we capture. Tougher comps first half, should be easier second half. Pipe mill -- pipeline activity, we're pretty bullish on the energy side. And then the last end market, structural. And when we think about that part of our business, a smaller part, 13%. It's historically been more choppy, but it was up high single digits. And that's good momentum around construction factories, data centers and that sort of thing. So our team is pretty positive on that. But I would look to the choppiness that we generally see in structural and infrastructure that are project-driven. So that's kind of how we see the end markets as we start off the year. But real positive long term. Geography-wise, we were slightly up in North America, a little bit more challenged in different parts of EMEA and. Then Asia had some good projects that also led to some growth in that part of the business.

All right. Very helpful walk-through. And then with that backdrop in mind, Q1 organic revenue was down slightly. You've maintained the full year outlook for flattish core sales, implying some stabilization, potentially a bit of recovery over the coming quarters. With that end-market positioning in mind, what gives your team confidence in achieving that?

Well, it's an interesting -- where we say confidence. We're confident in the organic assumptions, but the drivers are different, right? We start off the year and we said, "Look, we're anniversary-ing some price increases we put in place in the first quarter 2024." It was about 50 to 100 bps of positive impact, top line organic growth. We said that's going to be essentially offset by volume. So it was a more measured posture on organic trends. That said, we did expect some strength around our automation portfolio. High level of quoting activity coming into the year, real active, we're tracking through our sales force tool opportunities. And our team is assessing probability of quotes becoming orders. And so we've seen that slip in -- from January to February to March to April. So that is what has caused us some pause in seeing the deferral of capital investment on the automation side, which then gives us perspective on drivers not within our business. So top line, we expect to have price increases that are -- for the year be in that mid-single-digit type of framework. But we do believe that the volume pressures that we're going to see from an automation footprint standpoint. In addition, it's a bit of a cautious posture, but it's important, I think, to have a cautious posture with all the uncertainty in the markets that some production could be impacted. The elasticity of the response to pricing could have an impact. So our posture is that we have increases in pricing that will be mid-single digit, fully mature by the third quarter, largely in place in the second quarter. But you'll see a little bit of an impact in Q3. But that's offset by volume. So the drivers are different. The implications, net-net, are similar. But it's an -- I think it's an important posture to have with so much uncertainty in the markets.

Understandable. I'll circle back to price is a beautiful thing though.

All right.

Back to long term, setting aside automation for now, certainly, a very important part of the Lincoln Electric story. You had started to touch on some of the just secular exposures that your team has in this -- in the current market environment. Perhaps spending is on pause. But nonetheless, these are segments, thinking of reshoring infrastructure spending, broadening wave of electrification. Maybe offer a little more detail exactly how you're exposed to those areas of spending and elaborate a bit more on the confidence you have in leveraging those opportunities going forward.

Yes. Look, we have a very strong position, as you know, within the North American markets and in particularly, the U.S. markets. And so with the drive and expectation that U.S. manufacturing investment increases, reshoring, whether it's in the U.S. or North American markets in general, we're going to see a lot of positive impact for us because of our positions across all the various end markets that I just walked through. If there's incrementally more investment in automotive in the U.S., that's going to be important for us, and we'll be participating in that. And if there's more investment tied to infrastructure builds, then we see that part of our offering playing right into that in the structural aspect in -- of fabrication. So our posture in the U.S. market, and broadly in North America and the strength we have, is -- provides us a lot of confidence that as the markets increase the level of investment, reshoring infrastructure, electrification, we're well positioned to drive incremental growth and servicing the end markets across all the spectrum, energy, infrastructure, heavy industries, general industries and automotive. When you think about electrification, I'd like to think about it in multifaceted ways. One aspect of it is -- think about EV vehicles. And we had this discussion in the last couple of years, a little bit of a pause in kind of ICV dynamic second quarter of last year. But with incremental investment into EVs, I mean, we're servicing the automotive industry on both ICE and EV. So that's attractive for us. We introduced DC fast chargers as adjacency. It's kind of upside to our growth strategy. But it fits right into the electrification opportunity we have. And so that's more in servicing the demand in charge point operations in the market, even servicing fleets. But it does add another interesting dynamic in how electrification as it takes hold and continues to grow at whatever trajectory that we're well positioned to participate in that. And you haven't mentioned this as another driver. So you got reshoring electrification -- the infrastructure, but I also think about automation. We think about automation is still in the early innings. Still a lot to be had in the introduction in the industrial space of automation. So we're excited about our position.

Yes. Absolutely. However, we're getting to automation. It's my favorite topic in these chats. I would like to quickly touch on -- you mentioned EV charging, and then there's also additives. I think of both as kind of unique optionality in terms of the LECO story. Maybe speak to some of the recent technology developments that your team has put through with both and how the market opportunity, near versus medium to long term, how that's progressed?

Yes. So we look at both EV and additive as upside opportunities. So modest level of investment, they're not core to all of our strategic objectives that I just kind of walked through for our 2025 higher standard strategy. But there are nice opportunities to leverage our technologies to drive to a growth position in a potentially area that can be really attractive for us. So I'll touch on additive real quick. So when you think about leveraging our robotic capabilities, software, our wire drawing capabilities, that just becomes very attractive. And in markets like military or energy, so it becomes an opportunity for us to continue to introduce technologies that are going to shorten supply chains and drive a level of activity that's incremental type to growth. So a big accomplishment for 2024 was getting our business model into a break-even mode. So we're investing. We're looking at continuing to shape our business model, but we look to continued opportunities to drive an acceleration of the adoption of additive technologies. When you think about EV, so this is the fast-charging capabilities that we've been navigating over the last couple of years, that's all about leveraging power electronics, our infrastructure. And we talked about modest investment in the operations to be able to build out capacity that would be attractive for us. And there are 3 elements to our strategy. One was operations here in Cleveland and leveraging all the capabilities we have. So it would be modest investment. Then it was the products, and the products were anchored on that U.S.-based NEVI standard largely. So we went out with a 150-kilowatt type of an offering. What we found is that while we introduced that, the market is evolving. And so we have now developed a broadened product offering, so looking to more kilowatt capacity up to 400 kilowatts in capacity with power distribution. So that's an important part of where we see the markets. And then we also have this mobile option, which is a 50-kilowatt type of an option. And what that also introduced, if you look at the numbers, is our strategy around modular design and going to 50-kilowatt types of opportunities in there. So our commercialization has taken hold. We've broadened out our capacity and our commercial resources. Our team is out there and driving activity with trade shows and web activity, webinar activity. And that's really to get our name out there to starting engaging and looking at charge point operator opportunities or fleet manager opportunities. And the 150-kilowatt operation, we've got some in West Virginia established there, and that really is to create the stickiness of our brands. So our value proposition is driven around the reliability, quality of our product, our legacy of -- our longevity in business, U.S. content. And so we feel that those elements of differentiation are opportunities for us to be patiently navigating how we see this adjacency potentially in our business.

That definitely makes sense. And just to level set, assuming commercialization continues and you have some scale to EV charging business, is the expectation still it will be margin-accretive to fully ramp?

Yes. In general, we do believe it will be margin-accretive. I mean, obviously, it'd be depending on where volumes, but it's a fairly modest level of investment.

Understood. All right. One more quick topic and then automation. So certainly, in this environment with tariffs, trade wars, inflationary pressure kind of swirling, I'd be remiss if I didn't ask about price/cost. Your team has an excellent track record with managing price/cost through the cycles to margin-neutral kind of levels. I think I know the answer here, but how are you thinking about price/cost progression with all the moving parts as the backdrop and complexities of just managing week by week, month by month?

Yes. So we -- our posture is consistent. So as you mentioned, price/cost-neutral. We are looking to avenues to deal with the pressures of cost inflation, and that means supply chain. We've been through similar types of dynamics, remember back in 2021-2022, and needing to think through supply chain from our customer service perspective. But we're maintaining the same posture. It's price/cost-neutral. Conversations are never fun to have when you're talking about price increases. But the markets, in general, understand tariff dynamics that we're working through. So we'll continue to navigate in the same kind of posture and ensure that we're servicing our customers appropriately and working through and ensuring no disruption in supply. So that's our posture.

Understood. Had to check the box. Now moving to automation. So medium to long term, it's a very, very compelling aspect of your story. You've achieved rather significant scale. I want to get back to that in a minute. But maybe just talk about the overall value proposition of your automation platform. What really differentiates Lincoln Electric? And what are the most, I guess, exciting opportunities looking forward?

Yes. So I'll start off that we still believe that it's early in the adoption of industrial automation capabilities. And so I would start off with the platform we built and just give you a revenue number to kind of anchor that. So in 2020, when we started the strategy period, our sales for -- in automation are about $400 million. In 2024, we're at $911 million. So think about that kind of growth trajectory, both organic and inorganic type of growth. One of the things that we've built out is a pretty broad platform. We have got over 2,500 engineers and technicians. And that kind of capability, that can work through solutions for our customers with a broad portfolio of an offering. So we've been driving adoption and introducing technologies from Cobots to robotic cells to larger-scale types of an offering. And so having that kind of employee base to be able to work through solutions are pretty important for us. When you talk about the technology, it's broad, and broad indeed. So we have core welding capabilities. We've added material handling. We're into end-of-line testing. So you're looking at a much deeper footprint of solutions that are within the automation space. So you've got our people, you've got the technology. We got the footprint of space in all of our different facilities to be able to complete solutions, line builds and then be able to send those off to our customers. So over 2.5 million square feet of space across all of our operations. So those become pretty important differentiators. And then obviously, our brand, the longevity of our business, our reputation of servicing customers with high-quality types of solutions are important for us. So that all ties together into a pretty strong value proposition for our customers.

Absolutely. You mentioned the build-out of other capabilities, not just core welding applications. What's the mix now within your automation platform of direct welding application versus other? And then you mentioned the $911 million in revenue last year. I always like to just clarify this the way that your team parses that out. That is strictly equipment revenue, correct? And then consumables linked to your automation strategy would be, I assume, somewhat materially additive to that model?

Yes. So Bryan, that's a great observation in our value proposition because we are measuring the equipment components of our automation solutions to our customers. But there is a consumable tie-in. So when you think about robotic welding capabilities, there's wire as part of the offering. We don't capture the consumables as part of our offering in what we communicate on the automation side. So the welding component is about 55% of our overall $911 million we've talked about in 2024. The other 45% are all these other automation capabilities, material handling, end-of-line testing, positioners and that, that shore up our value proposition. And consumable is very sticky. When you think about the level of investment made in our -- in an automation solution, you don't want to be disruptive and risk productivity by buying cheap wire. So we essentially have all the business, I mean a significant amount of all the wire business tied to our robotic applications. And when you look at overall, we're talking about 15% of our consumable offering tied to robotic applications. So think about when you look at it holistically of almost 30% of our business within the equipment and consumables that are tied to our automation capabilities and solutions. And that revenue stream continues, right? So that's an important part of how we go to market, and that weld wire becomes an important part of that ongoing revenue stream.

Mathematically, I assume this is the case, but I'm not certain. I assume that the consumable mix of robotic wire [indiscernible] automation solutions that, that has scaled kind of proportionately with the equipment revenue, I guess?

Yes. So the more robotic applications we put in place and the more wire we're going to sell. So yes, so you see a growth trajectory that should be -- I mean it's not all -- 55% of the automation business is tied to welding applications. But as we continue to grow within automation and the introduction of wire to support the robotic applications, you see more of that bulk packaged products being sold within the robotics space.

So offsetting the 45%, you probably have more customization, maybe even greater stickiness with consumable sales?

Well, consumable is very sticky. I mean I don't say 100% because our team can't assert 100%, but you can say substantially all of the business is our wire.

Understood. All right. You mentioned earlier within the Higher Standard 2025 Strategy, revenue growth being, on average, 300 to 400 basis points M&A contribution.

Yes.

How does the current deal pipeline look? How is the kind of broad-based uncertainty in the macro environment influencing your deal funnel? And I guess, how are you -- how is your team balancing or prioritizing strategic M&A and repurchases in this environment? I know that the latter you have stepped up within the 2025 guidance range.

Yes. So I'd start off, Bryan, with our process. So as you point out, key part of our growth strategy is to drive acquisitions. And so our corporate team works hand in hand with our respective business units and navigating what are the kinds of opportunities that fit within our strategy. And then if we get to a point of valuation and making it work, then we're going to go after an opportunity to drive growth. So it's a very active part of our strategic thinking. It's a day in, day out for me type of a conversation because it's a key part of our growth strategy. When you step back and you think about how we're doing, yes, there's -- we believe the environment is going to be a little bit sluggish is the word we're using. But we're ahead of the objectives. So our target and our strategy was to be 300 to 400 basis points of CAGR through acquisitions. For this period, we're at 440 basis points of CAGR. So we're ahead of this. When you look at over the last 10 years, we're at 360 basis points of CAGR from acquisitions. So we're very disciplined. We have a very active level of review with our Board. In these April meetings, we just had gone through a hindsight review of all of our acquisitions. But it's a key part of our growth strategy, and we're exceeding our objectives for this strategy period, and that's going to continue to be an important element of growth for us. When you think about capital allocation, you're kind of inferring that with drivers for growth versus returning cash to shareholders. We want to be balanced, but we want to prioritize growth. That's our first priority. Internal investment, you've seen that we have moved up the level of CapEx spending over the last few years. So we continue to look for opportunities to drive needs in new product introductions, capacity, productivity, safety. Those are all areas that we're continuing to accelerate investment for internally, and then growth. So we're going to look at acquisitions from a growth standpoint, and those are key part of our priorities in capital allocation. That said, we're generating record levels of cash flow in this first quarter. We have a very healthy position in liquidity. So we have decided to move up the band of share repurchases and actually give a range. We haven't done that in some time. But we're talking about share repurchases in 2025 of between $300 million to $400 million. First quarter, we're already $107 million. Think about 2024, we did $264 million of share repurchases. So we're going to drive a little bit more activity in share repurchases, valuation and otherwise are attractive for us. So we're going to push a little bit more on share repurchases in this year.

Understood. You just mentioned the review of acquisitions throughout the 2025 -- or higher spend in 2025 period. Fori was a major one. Now we've always been intrigued by that asset. How has Fori progressed relative to the deal model? Any updates on commercial prospects, the broadening of the opportunity?

Yes. Look, the Fori integration is just going extremely well. We're exceeding the margin expectations that we had built into our base case. The integration, particularly the North American business, is right on schedule -- ahead of schedule in terms of how we've built out, how we look at project management and the integration of that business into what we call our Lincoln Business System. So really, the Fori business has just done excellently in how we've integrated and developed the model. So we're excited about what we've been able to accomplish with the Fori acquisition.

That's great to hear. We're relatively short on time. I guess -- so I'll ask one more on M&A. If we set aside automation, just thinking of core welding applications and also the Harris portfolio, what assets are of greatest interest to your team and rounding out the portfolio and your technology capabilities?

Yes. No. Look, all parts of our business, we're focused on driving M&A types of activity. So I just mentioned like last year, we acquired Vanair, which is a mobile unit in the truck area for maintenance and repair. That is a mobile unit that has air compressors, welding power sources, equipment to serve maintenance and repair. That's nicely tied into our Americas Welding segment. We had some joint engineering work done prior to the acquisition of Vanair, and that's just another great example, of which the integration is going very well, Vanair. So those are just opportunities for us that are outside of automation to think through, whether it's a channel play, whether it's a product play for us to continue our footprint across all of our businesses. We just announced an equity investment on the call that's tied into the mining market in Asia. So those are just opportunities for us to continue to see how we broaden the footprint in products and regions and channels to be able to improve the footprint and drive accelerated growth.

All makes sense. All right. I think we're officially at time. Thank you, as always, Gabe. It was great chatting with you.

Thank you, Bryan. Great to be here.