Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 17, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveWelcome, everybody, to Bank of Georgia Group PLC's Second Quarter and First Half of 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Natia Kalandarishvili, I'm Head of Investor Relations at Bank of Georgia, and today I'll be moderating the call. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. Our call today will be organized in 2 parts. During the first part, Archil Gachechiladze, the Bank of Georgia's CEO, will be presenting financial results overview for the second quarter. And during the second half, you'll be able to ask questions as part of Q&A session. With that, I'll hand over to Archil. Archil, please go ahead.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveHello, and welcome to our second quarter call and half year results call as well. I will be going through a presentation this time, and we will go through a few slides on macro then a few slides of our operating performance versus our strategy, and then we'll discuss some of the numbers. And after that, we'll go into Q&A. So we start, in fact, with the pandemic because that is something that is on our mind and the whole world is looking at it. And in fact, we are experiencing a significant wave in -- similar to the way that we experienced at the end of the year with one difference though, that although the numbers are as high, the vaccine availability is good. And in fact, our citizens have a choice of getting vaccinated with Pfizer or different types of vaccines. And the vaccination pickup is significant. And if it continues this way, and this has been over the last couple of weeks, in fact, we should be -- we should have about half of our population, adult population, vaccinated by the end of September. 46%, in fact, at least 1 dose. And then by the end of the year, the government is targeting 60-plus percent vaccination rate, which should be achievable. So while we are going through this -- and there are some limitations impact, so restaurants are closing at 11:00 p.m. instead of midnight. There's 2 weeks of public transportation limitations. There are some limitations but the government is committed not to close the economy down as the vaccines are widely available, and there are some rules to work with it. In terms of the economic rebound, we have really been seeing a significant rebound versus the 2020. But given the fact that 2020 was a difficult year in a low base, we also are competing the numbers to 2019. And as you can see on the slide here, the GDP growth was 12.5% in the first half of the year, which was mostly, in fact, in the -- or all of it in the second half of that half, so the second quarter versus 2019 for the half year period that was up by 5.7%. And that is reflected in many of the things that will follow after that. So this is predominantly driven by good numbers in remittances as well as other things, but remittances have stayed strong throughout of 2020. And also '21 has surprised as well. As you can see, the monthly numbers are very impressive. I mean, the current numbers versus last year but also versus 2019, the numbers are up by 30% to 40% in U.S. dollar terms, that is, so that's a significant growth. Exports have also overcome the 2019 level and are growing strongly in July numbers that came in. Also the exports were up by 20%. And versus last year, it's up by 40-or-so percent. Imports have picked up from last year. But versus 2019, they are flattish, with June number being slightly up. But overall, basically, the trade deficit is closer to 2019 levels. And the tours have started to pick up significantly, and we measure it as a percentage in terms of the income that the country is getting versus the 2019 level, which was a peak. And it's a month-by-month trajectory, but July was a very encouraging number, where 51%, the estimates by the stats bureau was that -- July stat was that it's about 50% of the income that we got 2 years ago in July. That will be somewhat affected short term by COVID, but the trajectory is a pretty fast recovery, which is very encouraging in fact. Georgia is experiencing a relatively high inflation, similar to a lot of international peers, and there's inflation wave Georgia as it's slightly higher than some of the other countries in the region. But that to curb the inflation, the National Bank has raised the refinancing rate 3x time now over the last few months up to 10%, which is very high for Georgia in reality. And -- but that was definitely a welcome news to curb the inflation, which is running at 11.9%. That has caused some strengthening of Georgian lari, which -- an appreciation, which we were expecting, in fact, because Georgian lari was oversold over the last few years, consistently when you look at the real effective exchange rate. So that is also welcome news. The gross international reserves are at the peak levels over the last few quarters at close to $4 billion, and National Bank has not really been selling the reserves because lari has been strengthening and did not require any intervention. Alongside all the positives that I described, a lot of international players, including the IMF and World Bank and then locally, the National Bank of Georgia have all upgraded the forecast for 2021 real economic growth that we are expecting. As a reminder, it used to be around 5%, so let's say, 4% to 5.5% for most of the predictors. And the IMF have upgraded that to 7.7%, but the National Bank of Georgia is more positive with 8.5%. And our [ growth and target ] agrees with National Bank and has our prediction slightly higher at 8.6%. Now let us remind you that our expectation was 7% earlier on, which was -- which seemed much more positive than most of the people expected. And that 8.6% takes into account the current risks, and we believe there's some upside there as well. And let's see how that all unfolds. Now a few words on the operational performance of -- alongside our strategy. So we, as a bank, we can -- in terms of the overview, we are 2/3 retail bank, basically 1/3 corporate bank. And retail is comprising of our mass retail franchise as well as our premium retail, which is Solo and MSME. Our payment business is leading on the market, and we have more than 50% acquiring business in our POS terminals when you measure it by all the payments done in the POS terminals in Georgia. We have 8.5 million transactions going 3 months through our mobile app. And through all of the transactions that we have, more than 96% are done digitally. And in terms of the strength of our retail banking franchise, we have good deposit market share around 40%, 38% market share in terms of the loans to individuals. And we are ranked as the most trusted and top of mind bank in Georgia with consistently -- consistent good growth in our NPS numbers. And I'll dive into it later on. And we are doing it all by -- and at the same time, focused on profitability with 20-plus percent guidance that we provide, and I'll cover that. This is just a reminder of what our strategy is focused on mobile app payments and loyalty strengthened by customer satisfaction employee empowerment that drive a strong franchise. All of this is being done as we are delivering very good profitability. So a few words on some of the measures according to our strategy, or at least some of the things that we are describing here our focus. So how are we doing on our strategic initiatives? We have in the mobile bank and iBank active users, we have grown by 19.3% during the year. And what's more important is that people are using our mobile bank more actively. So the current users are using it even more. So that's why the number of transactions have grown -- have gone up by 84% year-over-year. 40% of our active users are using our application on a daily basis, which gives you an idea of very strong engagement that our customers have with our digital channel. So we had a 61% uptick in the overall number of transactions, excluding POS transactions that is from the last year, but that kind of overestimates the overall picture because last year, we had a strong lockdown and the number of transactions was lower. But when you compare it to, let's say, 2 years ago, it's up by 20%. But what's more important is that during 2 years ago, our -- in terms of the split, how our number of transactions was, we had about 20% of our transactions being done via mobile phone. And currently, as the denominator has grown, but also disproportionate growth has been happening with our mobile transactions. So it's 46% now of the total transactions. And when you look at it, it went from 9.5 million to 26.3 million. And this really highlights the strength of that, strength and dynamic development of that channel, which we believe and a lot of -- and the whole market believes is the channel of the future, in fact. So what happens next in our mobile channel is that we are expecting a significant uptick in offloading, and there have been different types of initiatives happening. There, currently, the offloading rate is still around in low 20s, but the nominal number has been going up as the economy rebounded. And we expect that number to go up from the low 20s to mid-30s over the next 12 months as more and more people get comfortable using different banking products, not just the transfers and bill splits and the likes through -- on our mobile. And one example here is our remittances. As you know, remittances is a very important part of the Georgian economy. There are a lot of Georgians working outside off Georgia sending money to their families. And until recently, in fact, we -- all of the cashing in of that remittance was happening in the branches. So you have to go to the branch to deposit that money on your bank account or cash it out. And when we introduced the digital way of doing it, and you may say why was it complicated because there are a lot of different intermediaries, Western Union and the likes, that are enrolling, so also doing an integration is what I'm referring to. So over the last 1.5 years, it has gone from basically all physical to about 44% in the second quarter of 2021 being digital. And as we speak, end of July numbers came in, it's more than 50% now. And that is happening while we are gaining market share in overall remittances from about 32% to 35% over the last, let's say, 1.5 years. And that I think shows some strength on dynamic of development, of the type of things that we are doing. Also important in terms of the payments, although the different types of payments is our POS and merchant payment franchise. There, we have about 50% market, 51% in numbers and 49% in terms of the volume of market share. And as you can see, the growth there is significant, and we expect those numbers to grow significantly going in the future as well. So year-on-year, we grew by around 72% and, in terms of the volume by about 90%. And those numbers, we believe, will continue, and our position there is very strong. In terms of the mobile bank, but now we are talking about the business, the business pickup is significant. The large corporates have been digital for a long period of time. SMEs have been mixed, and micro has been more physical. And that trend is becoming more and more digital. And there, also, I think our advancement is very good. In the first quarter, we launched the mobile business bank has seen a lot of pickups, especially on the micro business users. So you can see that the number of users of our mobile and Internet bank in business side has grown by 28.9%, and number of transactions growing by almost 4%. All of this is being done by us focusing on customer satisfaction rigorously on many different things, measuring on channel, product, what people are happy about what they're not happy about. It's all summed up in 1 number, which is NPS, but there's a lot happening behind it. And as you can see over the last, let's say, few years, we have seen our NPS numbers growing on a very good trend, in fact, from 27%; peak of last quarter, it was 49%. We have a slight dip, and that dip was when we asked our customers, we're predominantly coming from a growing interest rate coming from the refi increase because there was several time done in a short period of time, but that is temporary. What people are paying a lot of attention to is the comfort of -- that they are experiencing in each and every channel as well as the easiness of product usage. We have also started to use Salesforce that we announced last year, in fact. And the effects of that will be reasonable in the quarters to come. A lot of things are backed by our very strong data capability, which is getting stronger. In fact, we had all of our middle management go through an online training done by U.S. schools, in fact. And more and more models will be used in every day to save costs as well as sell better. So now a few words. I hope that was not too long. So a few words on our numbers that we have delivered. Our revenue numbers were very strong, almost 40% growth year-on-year and 10.3% growth quarter-over-quarter versus first quarter. Something those -- that made me very happy, in fact, was that our net fee and commission numbers year-over-year was up by 73.9% and our Q-over-Q was 17.6%. And when you look into it, what's driving it, one of the strongest driver was our retail net fee and commission income, which was up by 99%. Other parts of the business also performed very well. In fact, corporate has done very well. But that is something to note that our retail fee and commission income has basically doubled year-over-year. In terms of cost of risk, we have benefited from a very good macro environment with the economy rebounding very strongly from the low start. Obviously, that has resulted in a low cost of risk, and we have benefited from some recoveries in corporate banking. Overall, those negative cost of risk that contributed to our very, very strong profitability. Our profitability, in fact, for the quarter was 29.4% return on equity, reaching GEL 202 million, which was an all-time high. And just in this quarter, in fact, we delivered about [ GBP 1 ] of profit per share, which versus our stock price, gives you an idea how significant the profitability was. Now obviously, that profitability, we have had some help from the strong economy and some recoveries, but when you look at the revenue and pre-provision numbers, they are strong as well. So 29% is definitely our return on equity is not a norm, and we don't expect to produce them. But 20-plus percent is what we have been guiding, and we are looking at sustained levels of that profitability. Our capital ratios have gone up very strongly in first half of the year, reaching core Tier 1 of 12.5% with a minimum requirement without using any buffers, that is, of 11.1%. And liquidity is strong, well above the 100% minimum requirement, 124.5%. So more specifically, last year, we had a significant charge in the first quarter of last year, upfront charge, which was slightly unusual versus some of the European peers, let's say. They have not done that, but in Georgia, we had an upfront charge of GEL 400 million expected loss for the full cycle. And since then, we have delivered 20-plus return on equity on each and every quarter. Our operating income, we described that, as I already mentioned, was up 40% and 10% quarter -- over the last quarter. And as I said, the noninterest income had an even stronger performance, which is very good. Also something that was, I think, an achievement of our team was that we had a stronger net interest income going up by 50 basis points over the last year and 20 basis points over the last quarter. Our cost income ratio was 36.4%, just significantly down versus the last year, which was a bit of a one-off at 43.9%. But 36.4% was in second quarter. And for the first half of the year was 35.9%. So we are guiding a midterm guidance of 35%, which should be achievable over the next few years. We had our costs growing at 15.8%, which is slightly high, but at the same time, when you have a significant uptick in the economic activity, you have much stronger revenue growth. And that also has some effect on our costs. But overall, I think our net operating income has grown significantly. In terms of cost of credit, as you can see from 2017 onwards, our cost of credit was reducing consistently as we were coming out of the 2015-'16 crisis, oil crisis, as well as entering into a more conservative regulatory environment. 2020 obviously was reflective of the COVID charge. This year, 0.1% first half of the year cost of risk is not sustainable. We are guiding about 1% to 1.2% into the medium term. But obviously, this year, we are experiencing very good recoveries. Our NPL ratio improved slightly to 3.5% and coverage ratio is 73%, with the collateral discount, we are looking at 122% coverage, which we believe is a good reflection of the strength of our coverage. In terms of low portfolio growth, in fact, we had a very healthy growth. As the economy rebounded, we saw good demand coming from the micro and SME as well as consumer that is reflected in the growth that we have seen here. On the nominal basis, that was 4.2%. And when you look at the constant currency basis, that was 7.2% from the start of the year. On an annual basis, that's 17.4%. And in constant currency, which is usually what we are focused on, is 13.7%. In terms of deposits, they stayed largely flat with this year growing by -- in constant currency basis by almost 2%. And what we have seen is that in 2020, we had a significant -- very, very significant growth in deposits, growing from GEL 10 billion to GEL 14 billion in lari as you can see. And that has largely stayed flat this year because as the economy opened up, people started to spend all the money that they've saved. But we are still having a very strong coverage in terms of net loans to customer funds and the development financial institutions, which is very stable. Long-term lending is all very healthy levels. Now a few words on capital. Last year, the National Bank guiding us to provision for the full cycle, also released the buffers to weather the crisis, COVID crisis, or rather, the economic crisis caused by it. Now those buffers are still available, and some banks are using it. But we're no longer using it from the beginning of the first, second quarter. And as you can see, our ratios are at 12.5% and 14.4% as well as 19.1%, well above the minimum requirement, which is 11.1%, 13.4% and 17.7%. Those are without the buffers, as I said. So when we look at it, the Basel III capital requirements are fully loading by the end of December 23. And those are the numbers to expect, given the current -- given the current buffers required for our bank. Those numbers are annually reviewed, but our current expectation is this. And as you can see, we had in the first half of the year, a very strong buildup of our capital, starting with Core Tier 1 of 10.4% and going to 12.5% while funding a very, very healthy growth. So that was good, and we believe that this is why we are going into a new environment where we will be focused on dividends quite a bit. In terms of something to keep in mind is also that our National Bank requirements are more strict than the IFRS. And as we are moving to IFRS, it's good to remember that there is a difference of around 2.5% on Core Tier 1 level, which IFRS accounts would see. So if you look through IFRS glasses, you would see not 12.5%, in fact, of core Tier 1, but 15%. So that is good to keep in mind and underlines the strength of our capital. So in terms of our strategic initiatives, we have been delivering more than 20% over the many, many years but last year, which was 13% return on equity. And the growth numbers were also above our 15% guidance. Now that number we have lowered to 10% going forward. And medium term, we expect our loan book growth to be around 10%. This year, as we said in the previous discussions, we may expect slightly higher given the high economic growth and the inflation in the environment and the economic rebound, but medium term is 10% is what we expect. The current dividend payout ratio range is 25% to 40%, although that will be formally reviewed on the next board meeting, and we'll be communicating to you with dividends remaining is very important part of our return to shareholders. Some buybacks may be in the cards as well, but they will be formally -- formally reviewed and approved and communicated to the shareholders after the September Board meeting. So with this, we are announcing an interim dividend of GEL 70 million on the back of our first half very strong profitability numbers. And going forward, we will see what we do on a full year. So with that, thank you very much for listening. And I will open up for Q&A now, which is a very exciting part usually of every call that we have.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executive[Operator Instructions] First question comes from the phone.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveWe cannot hear you. You are on mute. So there's something to press there. Natia, can you guide this.
Andrew Keeley
analystOkay. I think I'm unmuted now. It's Andrew Keeley from Sberbank CIB. I have a few questions. First of all, just interested to get a bit more detail on why you've reduced your medium-term loan growth target from 15% to 10%? It seems like the economy is growing pretty well and probably there's a reasonably good outlook for the next few years to come. Just kind of wondering, are you kind of concerned about -- I mean is it a case of sub segments of the credit market look relatively saturated? I mean are there segments that you're -- you've kind of turned less optimistic on perhaps than others? It would be good just to get a bit more color on that, and I can ask another question afterwards.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. So we believe that Georgia's development -- the Georgian banking development is not in the 2003, 2004 levels. And we expect that growing and focusing on profitability, in fact, rather than pushing growth is the right thing to do. So 10% is more or less what we expect slightly higher or at the levels of phenomenal growth of the economy. And that, I think, longer term is sustainable. Now there will be moments where we can have higher, like this year, I believe. But medium term, the growth of 5%, 5.5% real is what we expect in Georgia and an inflation of, let's say, 3% to 5%, and that would deliver phenomenal growth of around 10%. And that's what we believe is sustainable.
Andrew Keeley
analystOkay. But I mean are there kind of parts of -- are there segments where you feel that the growth is not going to be as strong as perhaps you previously thought? I mean is that kind of corporate parts of the retail market, MSME or kind of nothing -- none of those in particular?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveNone of those in particular. I mean it also depends on the environment. So last year, what we saw is that there was a very weak demand given the lockdown, et cetera, in micro and consumer, obviously, and some slowdown in SME. But then helped by the government support, the mortgages were very strong. And this year, what we see is that whatever suffered last year is recovering stronger than the rest of the book, which is micro, where we have a leading position, by far, as well as consumer and SME. So those, I think, are benefiting us disproportionately versus the overall market. But there's no particular subsegment, which I would say is discouraging anyway.
Andrew Keeley
analystOkay. Fair enough. I saw that there was, I think, a GEL 4 million or so loss from associates in the second quarter. Can you tell us what that was? And do you expect more of that or not?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. We don't expect -- I mean the biggest associate that we have really is a credit bureau in the country, and we reviewed their profitability and we do the assessment on an annual basis, and we saw that there was a reduction. So when we looked at it, the underlying reduction is that as the payday loan business was quite largely died off or reduced by 90%, their revenue reduced, and that is at a new base. So when you look at it, that's where the revaluation is coming from. Other than that, we don't expect anything else. If we expect it, it would be in the numbers. It's not like we can [indiscernible].
Andrew Keeley
analystFair enough. And obviously, your fee income growth was very strong in the second quarter. Just wondering, I mean, do you think that in kind of nominal terms, you can actually see kind of further growth from here in the second half of the year? Or are we going to see a bit of a slowdown, particularly given the kind of resumption of some restrictions around the COVID pandemic in the third quarter?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. My expectations are good, in fact. I mean I cannot give real guidance there. But the limitations or restrictions of COVID are very limited, in fact. So unlike last year when we did not know what to expect from this virus, that's one; and the second thing is that the vaccination was not available. The government basically to protect the population enacted a very strict slowdown in the first quarter of last year, and that lasted for a big part of second quarter. Now this year, vaccination is widely available, and Georgian population was a bit slow on picking that up. But with the virus numbers picking up now, there's very encouraging signs that people are signing up. And the number of vaccinations per day has been very strong, well above 20,000 per day, which, for the phase of the country, is a very good number. So that's -- so with that, we don't expect a significant slowdown in business. And numbers are good. Yes, I mean they are reflective of our very strong retail franchise -- retail and payments, I mean, we have a very good number.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveNext question now comes from the phone.
Unknown Analyst
analystThank you. You've spoken a lot about noninterest income. And this is clearly much less of the balance sheet encumbrance. I'm wondering, a, what sort of share of your income do you think can get to be noninterest income? And as it increases, will you be commensurately increasing your bottom end of your ROE target range? And if not, why not?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveSo very good questions. I don't have the answers to that right now. I think what we are focused on is making it easier for our customers and focusing on it, and market share is a result rather than a goal of what we do. And in terms of the pickup, I think these are good so far. Whatever we have focused on in terms of delivery is happening. More than the share, what is the biggest competitor in our payments business is not another bank, but it's really the cash economy. So we are basically fighting for -- to gain the noncash payments from the customers because we believe these payments are more comfortable. And that focus has resulted in the growth numbers that you are seeing. So what is there to grow in the future? There's a lot to still replace in terms of the cash economy. And we believe that it's a continuous development of our product, and it's not focused on one particular thing. It's bill split. It's money request. It's POS timing and also in the innovations there. It's all kinds of different improvements. And there's a lot to go. It's not just how the economy is growing but really replacing the cash, and there's a lot of cash in the economy.
Unknown Analyst
analystI have a sort of second one capital and your strategy assuming we stick with 20% plus ROE. Clearly, a reduction of 10% loan growth even without risk weight density coming down, which it naturally does as mortgages become a greater share of your book, clearly, the 25% to 45% payout ratio would see a permanent increase in capital every single year add in for an item. I'm assuming that isn't the case. But I'm also assuming -- like we also see that obviously, your minimum cap requirement obviously goes up out to 2023 as you highlighted in the presentation. So the question is, you said you're reviewing the dividend distribution policy at the year-end. In the context of the short-term increase in min-cap requirement, are we likely to see a much more significant review when that is out the other side? Or are we just going to get a review as far as you're aware this year?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveAll very logical arguments, but you are asking me what we are going to do in 3 years' time. And it's difficult for me to comment. I would say your arguments are very logical. So beyond that, I cannot say in 3 years' time how it's going to look. But absolutely, we are right now building out the capital to comply with the Basel III requirements. I mean if you factor what you're looking at in December numbers to Basel III numbers, there's only one part that we are currently not meeting, which is the Tier 1, where you look at the June number is slightly short. When you look at the mid-August number, we are looking at it on a daily basis, we are already meeting that number, the December capital requirement number in 2023, that is. So yes, there will be building up of buffers as well as financing the growth, which we have reduced slightly and focused on returning the capital. And obviously, that last part is very important because shareholders have -- they now focus on value growth for always. Natia, should we go through some of the questions that have been...
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveYes. We can. And then we also have...
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveCan you read them out, and I'll try to respond.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveSo we have a question from Andrey Mihailov. Part of this has already been answered, but let me read it. Thank you very much for the call. Could you please comment on what drove the loss from associates? This we already talked about. And the second question is, should we also expect further gains from realization of real estate and securities in second half as well as further rebook that's related to provisions?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. In terms of associates, I think I mentioned it. And in fact, that's the only significant associate that we have, and there was the significant revalue. So we don't have many associates, so not much to expect there. But whatever will be will reflect in the numbers. In terms of real estate, to expect gains or not, that is a difficult question to answer. So we are valuing the real estate life we are valuing, which is the market. And then the market has been improving, and we have been able to have some gains there. So as we are in an inflationary environment that we may have that going up. But on a longer period of time, we don't have short-term expectations of -- that are focused on that. And in terms of the further legal fee related provisions, we -- those over the last couple of years, we had significant legal fees related to one of the larger legal case, which has been ended with Bank of Georgia winning it in London. So those fees, we do not expect. Otherwise, there is always some legal fees that will be there, but it should not be significant.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveFrom [ Shaheen Ferhani ], this we also talked to in part, but what does the competitive environment look like with regard to your payments business? Who are the #2 and #3 players? And what percent of Georgians would you estimate use a payment service?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveSo there are 2 large banks in Georgia, as you know, and they are the ones also dominating in the payments business. Number 3 is largely insignificant compared to those 3, but there are other payment services providers, but those are the main ones. And so basically, it's -- we operate for Bank of Georgia only. Our competitor operates for all the other banks as well. So they have host to host for the other banks. But our market share, I believe, is what it is, just for Bank of Georgia. So that represents the strength of our franchise. So those are the players. In terms of the -- what percentage of Georgians are using the payment service, there are 2 types of payment services. One is something to do with our application and the other one is something to do with the merchant base, right? So the merchant -- our application is used by 800,000 people. So there's good upside there. And -- but I think the growth there is becoming more and more challenging because people that have not been using mobile bank, all the generations and others are slower to adopt it, but they are adopting it. And there, I think, our leading position is good. And the other one is the POS terminal, which the usage is higher. I don't have the number on top of my head, but we will disclose it going forward.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveWe have one more question...
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveMore people have cards, obviously. And we also are operating a national transport system -- not national, sorry, utility transport system and metro payment system. Thank you very much for the answers. Yes, Natia.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveWe have one more question, and then we can move to the live dial-ins. Could you please comment on the current state of dollarization in Georgia and how hard currency inflows and outflows are currently offering?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveState of dollarization, you mean?
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveCurrent state of dollarization.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. Dollarization is coming down. In fact, we are at the new lows in, I believe, on the loan side, it's 52%, which is historic low. And on the deposit side, it is about 60%. And National Bank has recently, a few months ago, in fact enacted a new regulation, which encourages us to accept the lari deposits. So more lari deposits we have, less dollar liquidity requirements we have on our dollar deposits. So it's a marginal attraction of our deposit is becoming more important, and that has contributed to an environment where we have a very strong, very good difference between the dollar and lari deposit, which is 1% and 9%. So 8% difference there for the retail customers, which is, little by little, starting to have an effect. And I think policies focused on de-dollarizing the liability side is very healthy. And it's not -- let's say, it's not causing new lari supply to the market and is not inflationary. So it's derisking the overall economy and encouraging people to save in lari, which little by little. And with stability of lari, the longer it lasts, more and more people will switch to lari saving. So it's 52% now on the lari side and on the asset side. And on retail, it's even higher -- even lower in terms of dollarization. I believe it's below 40%.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveWe move to the live. We have Simon Nellis on.
Simon Nellis
analystI'm intrigued by the very impressive revenue growth. I'm just wondering how confident are you that you can kind of sequentially see further increase in core net interest income and fees. But what needs to happen to be able to see that? And what are the key downside risks? And then just on the dividend, I think it's pretty clear what the regulator wants to see. But can you just walk us through the potential regulatory hurdles to capital distribution?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. On the first side, I mean, it's -- in terms of the net interest income, we had some widening of that, but we don't expect that to be sustainable obviously. I mean, NIM guidance, we have stable. In terms of growth this year, we should have slightly higher than 10%. But going forward, it's around 10% that we are guiding in terms of the balance sheet line. Now net fee and commission income, yes, that was strong. But I think on the retail side there, we should have strong growth depending how successful we will be to push out cash in the economy. And this is a long process, and we'll be doing it. So we are -- by many different measures, very fintech-like bank in that in terms of our product development and the speed of rolling out different products in our mobile app and payments business. So difficult to comment on right now, but we are seeing some of the results of our focus that has been there for the last 2 years. So it's not like we're super successful with this quarter and we expect something different next quarter. So these are some of the results that we have been talking about over the last 2 years in terms of new products in the agile infrastructure and so forth. In terms of the -- yes, I think that was the question, right?
Simon Nellis
analystThat was the first question. Yes.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveAnd the second one, could you repeat it, sorry?
Simon Nellis
analystYes. Just on the dividends, what are the regulatory requirements, I guess, to pay out dividends? Do you see any tightening or loosening of those?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. I believe the regulator is very supportive of the market economy as well respecting the shareholder rights. So we believe that regulators, what we are seeing at least is the regulators are fine with the dividends and so far has been very supportive, so we don't see a particular hurdles with that. Obviously, the regulator would like to see more capital and less risk in this structure, which is happening. So that is -- we have a map of capital -- increased capital requirements we need to comply with over the next 3 years. And we'll be growing our capital ratios, obviously, to have a buffer and comply with the requirements as well as pay dividends. So there's no other, let's say, additional requirement of per year versus the dividends that we are aware of.
Simon Nellis
analystOkay. And actually, maybe just one last question, if I could, on the risk cost. Could you just confirm that you didn't release any of the kind of macro-related ECL forward-looking overlay provisions, right?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveCorrect. We have not.
Simon Nellis
analystOkay. And how much do those -- how much are those? And under what conditions would you potentially release some of those and how the regulators is quite involved in that trend process?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes. We're very careful with that. So basically, there are some related to this GEL 400 million that has been allocated. It's a little bit less, and we may be reversing that. But that is not IFRS. That's local standards. So when you look at the capital buildup. And in fact, the first half of the year, we -- on one of the slides I presented 26% increase in the core Tier 1, that is abnormally high, right? And that is partly due to some of the NBG provision reversals that have happened in the first half of the year, because I think we were slightly over provisioned on the NBG standards last year. So you are seeing some of the capital build up stronger than you would expect just from, let's say, 29% return on equity or 25% for the first half. In terms of the overall macro expectations and based on that, we expect the provisioning to be. We have not changed it, although we have upgraded the macro environment. So we'll be slow there and wait until the COVID environment stabilizes. Although we don't expect a significant macroeconomic impact, we still want to see it go and stabilize and then we'll review.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveThanks, Simon. Next question comes from Ronak Gadhia.
Ronak Gadhia
analystArchil, my first question is just on your margin expectations for the second half of the year given the recent rate hikes by the NBG. That's the first one. And the second one, I guess you've answered it in bits and bobs because a number of people have asked it. But just on your payments business, you mentioned that your significant competitor is cash transactions. Could you share some data in terms of what proportion of transactions are cash based in the Georgian economy? And related to that, regarding your own payments business on the subscribers that you currently have, could you share some data in terms of how many transactions they are doing on a per month or per week basis and how you expect that to evolve?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveThose are very specific questions that I'll have answers to right now on top of my head. But I understand given the interest [ optimistic ] we'll be disclosing more information there. The growth that we are seeing, let's say, in the payments business has been significant, and we believe that should be sustainable. But in terms of the shares and what we are looking at, I think we will need to report back.
Ronak Gadhia
analystOkay. And just in terms of your margin outlook for the second half?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveIn terms of margin outlook, we are expecting constant -- or not constant, but stable margins. So we don't expect that to move in any significant way.
Ronak Gadhia
analystOkay. So the rate hikes shouldn't have any significant impact on your lari funding?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveNo. I mean there are other things happening as well. So lari funding that we draw on in terms of refinancing rates margin is largely for our mortgage financing, and mortgage financing has a variable rate linked to that. So part by and large, other than the first year or so of introductory rate, which is stable at the same levels but stable and then it becomes variable. So that is passed through to the customers. And in terms of our consumer financing in the short term, and that's basically a pass-through as well. So we don't expect a significant impact there. So there are other things that play here as well, but they are more or less balance each other out, only it's more. So largely stable and more difficult to comment on more specifics is the answer. We don't expect significant movement because of that.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveThanks, Ronak. We have [ John Deniro ] on the line.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Thanks very much, Archil, for the comprehensive presentation. I just want to ask you about the Board's decision to remove 200 bps management buffer on CET1. Because if you look at a lot of -- a lot of the banks in the region that are in investment-grade countries, less dollarized balance sheet, they do maintain significant buffers in most of the times, much more than 200 bps over the regulatory thresholds. So how do you see that as the management? That's the first question. Second question is on noninterest income. And I guess a part of the growth year-on-year has to do with the real estate gains. But maybe you could break it down for us a little bit further, if that's okay.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveYes, the first one, so basically, I think last year, when we -- so in terms of the management buffer, not the management buffer, yes, the management buffer of 200 basis points, which the Board removed, the Board as well as we believe that we are very, very strongly capitalized. In fact, our regulator, I believe, is super conservative in terms of the capital requirements. And the numbers that you see do not fully reflect the full capital position. And one example is the difference between the NBG requirements and IFRS, and there are others. There are different capital pockets, let's say, in many different areas. Like our dollar mandatory reserves that sit with national banks are weighted at 100% risk weighting. In the dollars that are sitting with the National Bank are weighted as if those were the loans, right, because that's by law and so forth. So there's plenty of capital there. Having a 200 basis point guidance we thought and then the Board thought was not needed, especially to provide more flexibility in terms of managing the capital position. Nevertheless, we will be looking at some buffer. Obviously, we will not be driving that close to the requirement. We don't -- we are not comfortable closing the requirement at any point. So we will be having some buffer. But we believe that from the macroeconomic point of view, our regulators' requirements are very, very conservative. So in terms of having a management being more conservative there, we don't need to be. We will just comply with that and have a buffer that will be comfortable enough given the environment not to cross the requirement. That's one. On the other one, in terms of the real estate gains, obviously, there was a question there, do we think it's sustainable? No, it's not a recurring line. I mean there will be real estate gains or real estate losses whenever they will be. And overall, I think the price environment on real estate has not been suffering at all. And longer term, we don't expect that to be the case either. So macro economy improves, we will have more of this. New real estate improves prices, we will have more of it, but we cannot provide any guidance for the recurring nature of such a line.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd what's the breakdown of noninterest revenues in the quarter if you have it in front of you?
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveNoninterest breakdown. I mean, you see the net fee and commission income and net foreign currency gain, and net other income is what you are asking. And there was income from operating lease of roughly GEL 2 million, net gain loss, net gain from the sale of real estate properties of GEL 10.5 million, net gain on sale of investment securities of around GEL 13 million. Then there were some small ups and downs, roughly that. And loss on buyback of securities, so when we buy back our bonds, which is about GEL 1.5 million, which is traded at lower yields than our coupons. So we have losses there. It's a pleasure in reporting good numbers to you because you're always very, very conservative on us.
Unknown Analyst
analystOne has to be in our business.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveThat's your niche. That's your niche.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Yes.
Natia Kalandarishvili
executiveAt this point, we don't have any more questions.
Archil Gachechiladze
executiveWell, with that, thank you very much. I think second quarter was historically one of the strongest quarters. And as I said, we delivered profitability of per share of about GBP 1 per share. Obviously, that is extraordinary given the cost recoveries and reversals in cost of risk. But even on a revenue line as well as pre-provision lines, I think we had a very strong growth as -- and I think something that made us very optimistic also was the net fee and commission income on retail side, doubling year-on-year and some of the operationally very good performance numbers on the payment side. So with that, thank you very much, and I wish you to enjoy your vacation, if you are on one, or if you're planning to take one. Thank you very much, and bye-bye.
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